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Trump's new tariffs on India, Chips, pharma, Switzerland, Japan ... out of control again... Markets : APPL saves the day yesterday (+5%..Ti m Cook has bought his way around tariffs. Pay to play..recycled info though, 10th time we hear about it in the last few years, no later than Feb with ''$500bn over 4years..'' ), worth noting that about 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter results have beaten forecasts, pretty wild price action yeterday in long-end UST's, market expecting the new FED guv to be announced ''shortly''...Shadow FED in place, markets will move >> regime change etc!! , SPX500 trades on 22x fwd earnings, to push it towards 25x and current forecasts, you need NOT to believe in recession at all, and think AI trade will take it up there ?.. FED GOLD revaluation document .. Healthcare Stocks now underperforming the S&P 500 by the largest margin in almost 25 years, BoE wildly expected to cut 25bps today, they should cut 50bps really, well they could signal it with a few 'ifs' FED regime change is not whether it is this Kevin or the other , it's about how are the reformist going to feel about QE, policy intervention from global central banks, FX manipulation etc... this will have huge implications on growth stocks, backstopped government debt, yields etc China’s Rare Earth Power Play: How “Economic Supremacy” Is Shaking America’s $1.2 Trillion Tech Industry to Its Core India - U.S diplomatic situation / Thread The July ISM Services report crushed what little remained of the “resilient labor market” narrative /Macro Thread from th excellent André ! - The ISM Services PMI index declined -0.7 points last month, to 50.1, the 2nd-lowest reading since June 2024. New orders fell -1 point, to 50.3, also the second-lowest since June 2024 U.S. Housing Market Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded, Student Loan Debt entering serious delinquency soars to 12.9%, the highest level ever recorded #PLAT Platinum crunch comes to a head as US and China snap up metal, Platinum lease rates are going vertical. 14.78 percent for 1 month? That’s not normal Spain cancels its plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the US, shifting defense spending to Europe.. Italy has finally approved a €13.5bn (£12bn) plan to build the world’s longest suspension bridge from the mainland to Sicily Megh Updates 🚨™ on X: "Tim Cook gifts Trump an apple custom-made glass with 24k heavy GOLD base along with $600B investment promise. In return, Trump signals that Apple could sidestep the 100% semiconductor tariff and enjoy business https://t.co/mCfpgOTs9i " / X tia... Could the Treasury Revalue Gold for Bitcoin Reserve or Debt Relief? The Fed - Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience Trump says JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America rejected him as a customer Donald Trump says 'meetings' could take place involving Russia, Ukraine and the US | World News | Sky News Trump vows 100% tariff on chips, unless companies are building in the U.S. India's nearly $87 billion exports to U.S. under threat due to Trump tariffs Platinum crunch comes to a head as US and China snap up metal - MINING.COM Fed Reserve's Kashkari: Economy may require rate cuts soon German industrial output dips after pre-tariff boost https://macroanchor.substack.com/p/you-still-believe-in-no-recession?r=63s8r1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true The dollar has weakened, and US equities have underperformed RoW in 2025. Is the era of US exceptionalism over? Let us face it. The 'exceptionalism' of the United States was supported by rising government deficits, a very loose monetary policy, and low cost of capital, hence the very significant outperformance of the US stock market relative to that of the rest of the world . But now there is a price for that exceptionalism: very high levels of debt and sticky inflation. Many market participants have pointed out the extreme weakness of the USD in recent months. However, if you look at the last 40 years, the USD is still quite strong and might weaken even more, not because the USA is losing its hegemony in the world, but mainly because policymakers in the USA want a weaker dollar and very low interest rates. This new macro policy setting could result in a renewed outperformance of the US stock market relative to that of the rest of the world (currency hedged).... couldn't agree more! (1) Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Very interesting SCMP article on the urgent debate within China on how best to bolster domestic consumption: "One point of contention is whether to set measurable consumption targets, in a similar fashion to... https://t.co/5BvWRYxxks " / X https://www.energy-reporters.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-power-play-how-economic-supremacy-is-shaking-americas-1-2-trillion-tech-industry-to-its-core/ https://x.com/d_extrovert/status/1952815479212376266 We should reflect on why we got this so wrong. This has been a diplomatic earthquake. However, Indians and India-focused scholars ignored the signs indicating that we were living in a perilous seismic zone. A thread  on the problems in our study of India-US follows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Stagflation has arrived in the services sector: The ISM Services PMI index declined -0.7 points last month, to 50.1, the 2nd-lowest reading since June 2024. New orders fell -1 point, to 50.3, also the second-lowest since June 2024. The Employment index decreased -0.8 points, https://t.co/FNoF1HvDzc " / X NXT EU on X: "🇮🇹 Italy has approved plans to build the longest suspension bridge in the world. The Road & Rail bridge will link Sicily to Mainland Europe 🇪🇺 It it set to open in 2032 and showcases Europe can undertake massive projects! Go Italy, go Europe! https://t.co/QVXs8l6aj8 " / X The gambling industry is a licence to print money. Tax it properly – and turbocharge the fight against child poverty | Gordon Brown | The Guardian

Secretary RFK Jr. is now taking action to fully ban FOOD STAMPS from being used for obtaining SODA Markets : India gets hit harder on tariffs again (''they're buying russian oil''), Pharmaceutical tariffs are no joke, MS chimes in, says recent jobs number revisions 4-5x larger than median absolute revision since 1979 (GS had comparison to 1968), Trump says Bessent took his name out of Fed chair race, four others in the running, decicion maybe before the week is over! ''in a week or so'' >>> Equity markets 'off highs' buit no more for now, 'shadow' FED chair could move USD and rates, tariffs 'war' continues, 7th Augus deadline coming up for a few, including Switzerland. "I don't see a trade deal happening with America. We can keep up the pretense of talking. But India cannot surrender to Trump's whims and fancies. We must now figure out how to contain the damage," says former Finance Secretary Subhash Garg U.S ISM >>> one of the lowest ISM employment gauge prints of the cycle Trump: "We'll be putting an initially small tariffs on pharmaceuticals. But in one year, one in a half years maximum, it's gonna go to 150% and then it's gonna go to 250 %, because we want pharmaceuticals made in our country." Reuters: “China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year , company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses.” Trump: "I did something with Switzerland the other day. I spoke to their prime minster. The woman was nice but she didn't want to listen The U.S may require foreign nationals from certain countries to pay $15'000 for visas China Tests Renminbi Stablecoins in Hong Kong Amid Capital Outflow Fears US adds OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to list of approved AI vendors for federal agencies Top economist warns the U.S. is ‘on the precipice of recession’—and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue Trump rules out Bessent as next Fed chair Trump says pharma tariffs could eventually reach up to 250% China Tests Renminbi Stablecoins in Hong Kong Amid Capital Outflow Fears | DeepNewz China Swiss president rushes to US to avert steep tariffs HHS Chief Pushes For Nationwide Ban On Purchasing Soda With SNAP Benefits - TFPP Wire Tesla sales in Britain dive 60% amid Musk backlash and waning EV growth | This is Money Trump rips Jaguar ad after CEO's resignation. Why the ad stirred discourse US agency approves OpenAI, Google, Anthropic for federal AI vendor list China's Car Exports to Mexico, UAE Surge, Those to Russia Plunge in First Half US may demand $15,000 deposit for visas - BBC News Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 NYT: "President Trump’s tariff threats have turned into a play for cold, hard cash as he tries to leverage U.S. economic power to cajole other nations to make multibillion-dollar investments in order to maintain access to America’s market." https://t.co/jF2vFPKHNl " / X Brian Sullivan on X: "Morgan Stanley chimes in, says recent jobs number revisions 4-5x larger than median absolute revision since 1979 (Goldman Sachs had comparison to 1968). The President politicized the issue so it got muddled but what is clear is that either we are sliding quickly into recession https://t.co/UPmwBFtMpH " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Reuters: “China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses.” https://t.co/RH8pNAM8G4 " / X Navroop Singh on X: "Superb Clarity by Jeffery Sachs ! A trade deal between India & USA is unlikely. Trump doesn’t want Indian manufacturing or China+1 & we should not close doors with Russia, China & Europe https://t.co/48qnW1lZ5l " / X

Markets : Trump vows substantial hike of India tariffs over Russian oil, Swiss in a bind over tariffs too! , Friday’s weak payrolls triggered a sharp drop in Treasury yields, with the 2-year falling 25 bps, the largest move in a year, as markets priced in two rate cuts by year-end, markets rebounded half of Friday losses, mining stocks on fuego, DATA centers will eventually go through the usual cycle (...huge CAPEX spending as per recently, it will get commoditized (CHINA and others to overbuild etc) and eventually returns will get smashed (eventually-play accordingly) >>> What the ISM is describing is a business cycle that is dead and doesn't really exist anymore/THREAD, well worth a read US tech stocks have reached a 100-year high relative to the S&P 500 in 2025, with the Mag 7 now accounting for 35% of total US market capitalization. - BofA The Fed’s Mary Daly said the time for rate cuts is nearing, telling Reuters more than two reductions might be needed if labor market weakness persists UK (AND elsewhere..) State pension age to hit 80 without reforms, expert warns >>> this POINT will com eback over and over and over, hence whichever government in charge is unpopular.. (France, europe, US, CH, UK all same demographics..) India said the US threat of increasing tariffs on its goods for buying Russian oil is ‘unjustified and unreasonable.’ Japan’s trade chief is set to leave for the US to urge Washington to proceed with a promised cut to car tariffs SAUDI ARAMCO takes on more debt to cover its dividend as free cash flow was insufficient (again) in 2Q despite realized oil prices of ~$67 a barrel (and very strong total production) Swiss president under fire after Trump call leads to US tariffs shock. Karin Keller-Sutter accused of mishandling talks as shares dive after Switzerland hit with 39% tariff World central banks bought another 166.5 tonnes of gold in Q2 2025. This is ~41% above the average quarterly purchase between 2010 and 2021#GOLD July jobs report shows brutal stretch. Trump fires BLS head Decent amopint of data this week Economic Calendar (1) Count Draghula on X: "5/ What the ISM is describing is a business cycle that is dead and doesn't really exist anymore. If you've read any of what I've written its purely due to debt expansion (mostly at the govt level). This is supported by the ISM itself." / X its purely due to debt expansion (mostly at the govt level) Swiss president under fire after Trump call leads to US tariffs shock | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Exclusive-Fed's Daly says time is nearing for rate cuts, may need more than two Trump tariffs: India may extend support to vulnerable sectors worst affected - The Hindu BusinessLine More than 3,000 Boeing defense workers go on strike Tesla gives CEO Elon Musk a $29 billion stock award Saudi Aramco second-quarter net profit drops 22% on lower revenue | Reuters Schweizer Elite auf Direkt-Kurs Richtung Brüssel – Inside Paradeplatz State pension age to hit 80 without reforms, expert warns ICE offers $50,000 bonus and student loan payoff for new hires (1) Global Markets Investor on X: "‼️Market complacency is at historic levels: The global corporate investment-grade bond spreads dropped to 0.79 percentage points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the Great Financial Crisis. History says there is not much upside from here for the markets. https://t.co/n3OaGFgK4a " / X This may have something to do with the 39% ... Sanctioned Russians in Geneva: Who Gets In and Why - SWI swissinfo.ch Airplane passengers rescued alive after emergency landing in Lake Lucerne - SWI swissinfo.ch August 1: how Switzerland celebrates its birthday - SWI swissinfo.ch

Happy Swiss National day... 39%, thanks Donald ! Markets : tariffs kicking in again, letters sent to most with a bill attached, Trump imposes sweeping new tariffs on trading partners:  announced fresh tariffs of up to 41% on imports from dozens of countries, including Canada (35%), India (25%), Taiwan (20%) and Switzerland (39%) , prompting concern over rising global trade tensions drugamakers got their letters too, Big Techs reported, bit of a headfake in MSFT and META, AMZN disapointed on guidance last night, APPL knocked it out of the park, but and NVDA got hit on China news, AND MAG7's declining cashflows on HUGE CAPEX spending lately - followed by big layoffs.. .Copper gave up all its gains, as Trump went ahead with his 50% tariffs on copper importas, BUT exempted refined metals (which is main part of it all) >>> ALL in ALL combo of tariff man back, higher PCE inflation (quelle surprise), MAG7 overdone, margin debt, copper, high uncertainty around Trump's erratic decisions, a market 'fully' invested and chasing large caps (mainly-concentraded risk..!!) could NOW matter hugely in August, low liquidities etc, a correction was well overdue, looks like it's kicked in! Donald Trump set a 10% minimum global tariff, while imports from countries with trade surpluses with the US will face duties of 15% or higher. Levies on Canadian imports will be increased to 35%, but USMCA goods remain exempt. Switzerland got a 39% rate, India 25%, Taiwan 20%, Mexico has a 90 day pause. China tariffs are being negotiated in a separate track, currently postponed until Aug 12 (BBG, FT, WSJ) Drugmakers including Eli Lilly and Novo were sent letters from Trump, who demanded they cut US prices to match foreign rates, giving them 60 days to comply or face consequences American businesses have been absorbing Trump’s tariffs so far, but eventually the burden will be shifted on to American consumer — Fed Chair Powell Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets - Quite right! Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates – The White House Trump rejigs tariffs ahead of deadline, targets transshipment with 40% duty Trump reacts to Canada’s move to recognize Palestine Trump's tariffs are back - here's who is in his sights this time Trump Tariff Surprise Triggers Implosion of Massive Copper Trade June PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 2.6%, Stronger Than Expected | Morningstar New questions raised about Epstein jail cell death after fresh review of full video reveals mystery ‘orange shape’ Russia Ukraine latest news: Trump slams Putin’s ‘disgusting’ war as Zelensky calls for regime change after deadly Kyiv attack | The Independent Trump extends Mexico's 25% tariffs for 90 days as talks continue Nvidia in the Crosshairs: China Just Escalated the AI Chip War Trump demands largest pharma companies slash US drug prices (1) Really American 🇺🇸 on X: "Dear Mr. Pharma: In a bizarre moment, Karoline Leavitt reads a letter written by Trump to the pharmaceutical companies, holding it up like a kid's fingerpainting headed for the fridge. "Please lower drug prices," or something like that. Beyond parody. https://t.co/eeihQAkuxk " / X Exxon, Chevron profits to drop to lowest point since pandemic, analysts say | Reuters Listen to the Amazon (AMZN) Q2 2025 earnings call here | Shacknews Apple Beats Q3 Estimates With Strongest Revenue Growth Since December 2021 | FXEmpire Declining Tech Cash Flows: Can't You Hear Me Knocking? Microsoft Just Misses $4 Trillion Market Cap After Earnings. The Stock Is on Fire. Asia stocks mixed ahead of US tariff deadline; S.Korea drops on govt tax hike plan By Investing.com (1) StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 The U.S. Treasury just changed the game. Trillions in short-term debt. Long-end buybacks. Crypto soaking up supply. This is the quietest move toward Yield Curve Control we’ve ever seen. (Save this thread) https://t.co/QegKVrTGUI " / X Las Vegas tourism takes another plunge in June, even as gaming win ticks up If even Vegas is quiet.. (1) Larry the Cat on X: "The Coldstream Guards Band performed Black Sabbath's masterpiece Paranoid outside of Buckingham Palace as a tribute to Ozzy Osbourne on the day of his funeral. Don't let anybody tell you this isn't a great country. https://t.co/bDPUnVkAKu https://t.co/OUGp6GOvHt " / X :-) Brilliant

Powerful 8.8 ! margnitude earthquake FOMC : FED expecting t hold steady today, every word coming out of Jerome's speech will be über analized though, QRA, TBills - see below Markets : Treasuries surge most since June ahead of Government Debt Plans , LOADS of EU macro data next 3days (Q2 GDP, spanish inflation today, July Inflation and labour data in Germany tom and Friday with EU HICP data), Novo Nordisk 'olde' craze momentum trade fell again (new profit warning, competitive markets etc, been a terrible few years for healthcare #UNH, #UPS #HSBC #UBS ), China - US trade talks conclude without deal to prevent higher tariffs #HSI down a little, overnight momentum broken, #META and #MSFT report after the bell tonight + FOMC which should be a non event (although you never know, market mood can switch very quickly) >>> OVERALL, markets overdone, valuations, RSI all calling for a 'correcton', today's earnings, QRA, FOMC could be the trigger, slight momentum change yesterday too Again, about that wonderful EU/US deal : the $600bn EU investment pledge is an "intention". The EU did not commit to US defence purchases. The EU did not commit to address non-tariff barriers in agriculture or digital taxes. Apart from that, a historic deal QRA : The Treasury released their borrowing estimates :   $1.6T in net new debt issuance over the next two quarters. About $500B of it is the TGA refill. Donald Trump’s administration has denied permission for Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te to stop in New York en route to Central America, after China raised objections with Washington about the visit >> Donald clearly 'wants' a deal, he wants a big headline, CHINA knows this obviously, Yuan seems at play in talks too US consumers are piling into credit card debt like never before/THREAD, and Margin debt just hit $1.008 trillion, the highest level in history. That’s more leverage than at the peak of the dot-com bubble or the 2008 crash Keir Starmer has told his Cabinet that the UK will recognise Palestine as a state in September (France and few other EU contries too) Treasuries Surge Most Since June Ahead of Government Debt Plans   >>>> VERY important, if markets gets a clear hint of a pivot to TBills, some anticipated, as per this rally, over time ''could be'' a MAJOR pivot, so very nuanced language will influence swiftly, and the risk goes to back-end #duration as was in NOV 2023 ! Yields fell across all tenors after investors snapped up $44 billion of seven-year notes in a Tuesday afternoon sale. Treasury officials may provide signals about the extent to which they are prepared to rely on sales of short-maturity bills rather than increasing sales of longer-maturity notes and bonds. Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said Tuesday’s rally was “a last-minute setup for the risk that something dramatic comes from the refunding”. Saxo Morning Brew July 30 2025 | Saxo Bank Switzerland data, earnings, FOMC Earnins this week Earnings Calendar & Reports of US Companies — TradingView Stronger Chinese yuan a sign of goodwill ahead of US-China talks: Strategist | Watch China-US trade talks conclude without deal to prevent tariffs from surging again A record-setting earthquake is sending tsunami waves toward several US states. Here’s what we know Eight opposition parties agree to push for extra gasoline tax to be scrapped - The Japan Times Australia's second-quarter inflation drops to lowest since March 2021, supporting case for rate cut Trump says he may skip G20 summit in South Africa, cites policy disapproval | Reuters The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US consumers are piling into credit card debt like never before: Total US credit card debt hit $1.1 trillion in the week ending July 16th, matching a record high set in May. Year-to-date, credit card debt has risen by +$17 billion. Since April 2021, it has surged by a whopping https://t.co/EMjzqLma02 " / X For second day, Russia's Aeroflot cancels flights after reported cyberattack UK to recognise Palestinian state unless Israel meets conditions - BBC News Apple's third quarter earnings could show tariff impact #GDX Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Gold producers’ margins updated. We’re living through what could be described as the “Golden Age of Mining”, in my view.   Yet, it’s striking to see that many mining stocks still trade as if gold were below $2,000/oz.   A significant re-rating is still on the horizon, in my https://t.co/nocBrSOW6t " / X Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2025 earnings UBS Q2 earnings 2025 Goldman Talks Art During Hong Kong Wealth Summit HSBC announces $3 billion share buyback after second-quarter profit plunges 29% Novo Nordisk picks Doustdar as new CEO, shares plunge Porsche Slashes Guidance Again After Tariff Hit UPS Falls as Courier Withholds Outlook on Trade, Economic Woes

That EU / US 'deal', or call it framework agreement, will cost VdL her job , it's an absolute terrible deal ( 15% tarriffs are paid by U.S consumers. .), as mentioned yesterday it's just 'Pie in the sky', Great headline for Trump .. >>> It’s a ‘pledge’ with no legally binding enforceable mechanism, even on energy there is NO way EU can get even close to 600bn , anyway they already arew buying some LNG.., make what u wish of it - yesterdays price action was ''buy runour and sell the fact'' >> totally overhyped, U.S chose a tax, RoW hasn't, Trump calls it a win..U.S pays it not RoW, and various investment are largely rubbish (including JPN ones..) Markets : EURO took a clear turn softer on this great VdL 'deal' - usd bid into month end, risk holding up well, DAX yesterday though didn't digest the deal too well (no drama though, yet anyway), Putin will be under pressure very shortly (new santions coming, PALL, Crude..), QRA details tomorrow morning pretty key for markets (UST curve etc and USD), Trump gives Putin 10 to 12 days to move towards Ukraine war ceasefire or face financial hits on Russia Von der Leyen (or liar?).. now says U.S. LNG is suddenly “more affordable and better” than cheaper gas from "neighbouring" pipelines ... This is a blatant lie China's latest AI model claims to be even cheaper to use than DeepSeek Republicans defended Powell during Trump's first term, not anymore Trump tells Starmer: Slash taxes and migration to beat Farage What Wall Street will be looking for in Meta's Q2 earnings Microsoft Q2 2025 earnings: All eyes on Azure and Copilot AI growth Make-or-break week for stocks: key questions investors are asking | Saxo Bank Switzerland NEXT V important, largely as expected, so far Jim Bianco on X: "I hope @dampedspring is wrong, but fear he might be correct. ---- The Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) comes on Wednesday morning (a few hours before the FOMC announcement/Powell presser), when Treasury gives us the mix of Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS they will issue next" / X Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the Treasury Trump gives Putin 10 to 12 days to move towards Ukraine war ceasefire or face financial hits on Russia Steve Rosenberg on X: "Judging from today's Russian papers it doesn’t sound like Donald Trump’s reduced deadline will persuade Moscow to end the war in Ukraine: “The ultimatum was not taken seriously. Not 50 days, not 10-12 days.” “Moscow has no intention of caving to pressure.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/gTUKG0hMbq " / X Trump: Global baseline tariff will likely be 15% to 20% EU-US trade deal: The biggest losers and (a few) winners – POLITICO EU admits it can’t guarantee $600B promise to Trump – POLITICO Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is beyond parody: https://t.co/iIwZeq91S0 VDL says that US LNG gas is "more affordable and better" than Russian gas in order to justify the unequal treaty she just signed Europe for, in which - among other concessions - she commits to buy $750 billion of US LNG over the" / X Exclusive: Taiwan's Lai set to push back U.S. stopover as U.S.-China trade talks continue, sources say | Reuters Rachel Reeves warned by Bank of England over financial deregulation as debt interest hits £16.4bn China's latest AI model claims to be even cheaper to use than DeepSeek Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 This very good FT article on China's inability stop expanding its already-excess reliance on manufacturing makes what I think are two especially important points. https://t.co/ztFxDRO5oM via @ft" / X GOP firewall protecting Powell from Trump is weakening Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, the Fed: The stock market this week UBS in Dollar-Struki-Tornado: Schuld-Eingeständnis – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets : The Donald is playing golf in Scotland and doing trade deals at the same time, only he can. ...lots of nice numbers but little in hard fact..90 days TACO with China (what else..), EU tariffs deals 15% tax (plenty of disagreement within EU on this already..)) >>> overall USD squeezing higher into month-end possibly, bonds steady, risk intially always loves the sound of 'trade deal' headlines and TACO action (and very littel substance tbh.. in EU deal..) China and US officials meet in Stockholm to extend a tariff truce beyond the mid-August deadline. The US has frozen restrictions on technology exports, such as the Nvidia H20 chip to China to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing sources say. Keir Starmer and Donald Trump will hold trade discussions in Scotland EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months, the South China Morning Post reported, citing unnamed sources Japan’s PM Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election debacle Russell Vought, Donald Trump’s budget chief, raised the pressure on Jay Powell on Sunday ahead of the Fed meeting this week demanding ‘dramatically lower’ interest rates (FT) Boeing union workers rejected a contract offer that would have boosted their wages by 20% over four years (BBG) Trump to meet Starmer in Ayrshire after agreeing US-EU trade deal - BBC News EU-US tariffs: five key takeaways from the trade deal | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Exclusive | China, US to extend tariff pause at Sweden talks by another 90 days: sources | South China Morning Post EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional | Reuters Trump pulling U.S. out of UNESCO, the U.N. scientific and cultural agency Musk says Tesla, Samsung sign $16.5 billion chip supply deal | Reuters Japan’s PM Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election debacle The rightwing media stoking culture wars in Germany Boeing's contract offer rejected by union members UN warns of 'make or break' days ahead for aid as Israel resumes military pause in parts of Gaza - follow live - BBC News Thailand-Cambodia border: Thailand warns clashes could 'move towards war' - BBC News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin cancels navy celebration parades as Kyiv strikes near St Petersburg

Markets : new highs still, low vol squeeze up still, though consumers are starting to pull back on discretionary service spending names , fun fact : the S&P500 is down 4% this year in EURO's, Trump suddenly says it's not necessary to fire Powell, but pressed Jerome to cut during 'tense' FED visit (embarrassing TVee show)..ECB on pause, rates steady, ever so slightly 'hawkish' (less easing priced ahead), month-end flows slowly taking over, watch out for a few 'owned' positions going into it Bessent : The Fed is losing $100 billion a year. Now, it is blowing even more taxpayer money on out-of-control building renovations. Time for an internal review Thailand launches airstrikes on Cambodian military targets as deadly border dispute escalates US ‘strongly rejects’ French plan to recognise Palestine, Saudis hail ‘historic decision’ Mike Johnson says he’s has a “concern” the Epstein files were “doctored” under the Biden administration. They know what’s coming and they’re scrambling to spin it U.S Initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week/running below their year-earlier level. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago The U.S. has collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has largely shouldered the bill rather than consumers or foreign suppliers (WSJ) Demographic / China Eco - Chinese kindergartens in crisis as enrolments plunge 25% in 4 years - Demographic decline hits vast education system as drop-off in births leads to school closures-FT Boom fades for US clean energy as Trump guts subsidies U.S Japan trade deal hinges on fund that remains a puzzle.. #TSLA Tesla dumped 75% of its bitcoin at one of the worst times, losing out on billions Puma shares dive after warning of full year loss, someone should be fired for not hedging its FX exposure.. ECB hits pause button: Here’s why Lagarde isn’t rushing things Trump tours Federal Reserve, confronts confused Powell about renovation price tag | Watch This was like a Monty Python sketch.. :-) EU-China summit: Xi courts EU while Brussels demands trade rebalance China’s Local Gov’t Debt Faces Test Over Next Five Years, Economist Says Japan says US investment profits in trade deal to be shared by contributions Trump visits Fed headquarters, says he will not fire Powell French plan to recognise Palestinian state draws fire from Israel, US Beyond digital: how AI is restoring the human touch in Portuguese banking - Euromoney Boom fades for US clean energy as Trump guts subsidies | Reuters Tesla dumped 75% of its bitcoin at one of the worst times Puma shares dive after warning of full year loss | Reuters Nvidia AI chips: repair demand booms in China for banned products  | Reuters Live updates: Thailand-Cambodia border clashes, Thai F-16 fighter jets deployed against Cambodian military targets | CNN Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery fire as fighting rages for second day | Reuters Jeremy Corbyn confirms launch of new political party No real set-up, yet anyway NHS apologises as five-day doctor's strike begins

Markets :  U.S  admin heads to the FED today, could be fun.  U . S House  Speaker Johnson said that he legal authority around firing the Fed chief is unclear. I am open to amending the Federal Reserve Act, but it depends on details >>> echoing Trump now, FED 'take over' gathering pace, congress modifying the FED act is a nuclear option #USD #GOLD, and Lutnick added.. Fed Chair Powell should resign or be replaced   >>> clearly a whole lot gong on behind the scenes, politics, Epstein files cover-up, clearly the current gang wants to bring the FED and US Treasury together, with stable coins in mind in a new world... (UST demand..) etc... so only folks who think like Bessent will come in, the others will be pushed out.. (rightly or wrongly, we'll find out in a few years..), why is #PLTR on a 600 P/E ?.. Tulsi Gabbard has officially referred former President Obama to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, crickey US President Donald Trump suggested that he would not go below 15% as he sets "reciprocal" tariff rates. Trump said "we'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%" Adjusted using ISM methodology, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 46.4 in July (suggests contraction for ISM Manufacturing) T he Tesla Diner opened on July 21 in Hollywood, might save them, from ugly earnings! Botswana pushes for controlling stake in De Beers #HYG   $24B+ in junk bond supply this month, highest since july since 2021 Subprime auto delinquencies have now hit 2009 levels, a 15-year high / Fitch Ratings Tulsi Gabbard alleges Obama 'manufactured' intel on Russian plot in 2016 polls, but critics question her report – Firstpost US Congress headed for early shutdown as Republicans avoid Jeffrey Epstein vote EU's von der Leyen says China ties are at 'inflection point' at tense summit | Reuters Stablecoins Are Enhancing Cross-Border Payments In The Digital Economy : Grayscale Research | Crowdfund Insider What is the effect on the Las Vegas economy as tourism keep declining? Here's what we found out Tesla Ea nostalgia, and we'd go back. Tesla Earnings: Affordable Vehicle to Enter Production by End of Year as Robotaxi Testing Underway | Morningstar We visited the first Tesla Diner. It was surreal and heavy on nostalgia, and we'd go back. Google beats on Q2 earnings, raises capex expeditures Tom Hayes: Court overturns ex-Citi trader criminal conviction for interest rate rigging | CNN Business   About time! why did it take 10years...!!! QRCS, Qatar embassy in Damascus deploy food aid to southern Syria - Gulf Times LIVE: Hamas submits Gaza truce response as Israel continues deadly assault | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Russia-Ukraine war: Istanbul talks fail to go beyond prisoner swap, eyes on summit proposal – Firstpost France's new prison regime for drug kingpins shines the spotlight on a possible successor to Macron

Markets : U.S announced a deal with Japan, 15% tariffs and few exceptions higher (ALU), that's less than the 25% expected, Nikkei joins the fun higher, JGB's chinned though (long-end 7bps higher), 19% tariffs with Philippines (instead of 20%, big win..) >>> USD weakening again, metals powering through resistance higher #GOLD #SILVER #XPT #PALL .. risk holding up very well overall, TSLA earnings tonight then GOOG, first of the #MAG7 this week, let' see how this goes.. few clients buying downside spreads #SPX and #QQQ, never a bad time to buy hedges when vols/VIX are low >>> 62% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200 dma, the most since Jan >>> thanks to TGA run down and FED pumping, M2 surging etc.. BoJ's Uchida: Fiscal expansion may support the economy Trump "Former President Obama is guilty of treason." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is “only going to be there a short while,” President Donald Trump says at an event with GOP lawmakers. Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May and his separate term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028 Elon Musk asks if you want burgers and fries with your Tesla UK-EU : The youth mobility scheme is just the start of a Brexit reversal How Israel Appears to Be Gambling With the Trump Administration’s Patience ''  tariffs haven't affected the stock market more is that they primarily affect the "old economy". GM has $187B in sales but a market cap of just $50B, while Nvidia has $135B in sales and a market cap of $4.1 trillion. GM is much more exposed to tariffs than Nvidia.'' >>> read that again At least three Trump advisers set to visit Fed on Thursday US-Philippines trade talks yield modest tariff shift after Trump-Marcos meeting | Reuters US andJapan trade deal: Here are the 5 key takeaways  U.S.-China trade deal deadline could be extended, Scott Bessent says Trump Epstein Lawsuit: Why Wall Street Journal Defamation Case Could Backfire In Discovery Senate Dems preserve shutdown leverage over Trump, GOP Politically bruised, Japan’s Ishiba to resign as PM next month over defeat in Senate vote – Firstpost Elon Musk's Tesla diner opens for food and EV charging GM says Trump tariffs cost $1.1 billion in Q2 with more pain ahead How Long Can Israel Keep Frustrating the U.S.? | TIME How Canadian boycotts are impacting the U.S. The youth mobility scheme is just the start of a Brexit reversal | The Spectator Good Rachel Reeves faces some tough fiscal choices France moves notorious drug traffickers to supermax prison in major crackdown General Motors absorbs $1.1 billion in tariff costs as profit tops estimates US tariffs help push Jeep owner Stellantis into massive loss - The Economic Times Coca-Cola plans cane-sugar Coke as higher prices boost profits | Reuters Senedd's Laura Anne Jones defects from Conservatives to Reform UBS-Derivate-Skandal: Spuren ins Tradinghaus Opfikon – Inside Paradeplatz

Something cooking at the FED ....!?>>> Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for a review of ‘the entire' Federal Reserve , Threats to the Fed go beyond firing Powell, Curtis Yarvin’s ideas are going ever more mainstream in Trump’s Washington — and investors should be worried AND The potential successor to Jerome Powell discusses why she thinks the Fed is too powerful, why her stance on gold is not a ‘crank’ position, and why she feels events have vindicated her and president Trump on the need for rate cuts, '' We need to open up the Fed and move to a different construct'', says Judy Shelton >>> changes ahead ? possibly, classic populist stuff, but beware ! as this would be BIG obviously Bessent : What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful... All of these Ph.D.s over there, I don't know what they do... EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst, Bessent: Imposing Aug. 1 tariffs ‘will put more pressure’ on trade partners for deals Markets : USD weakened on the above FED chatters, GOLD & XAG up too, Equity markets steady/ever so slightly lower, been dragged higher as the current macro picture continues to push capital out the risk curve, liquidity plenty, no apparent credit risk (HYG) etc...and low vols.. all of which can 'unlock' if-when background picture changes >> CLEARLY if FED mandata changes, let along if Powell has to go early or is 'shadowed' early, markets WILL move hard About those talks... Iran Foreign Ministry: No plans for talks with the US at the moment, We are to discuss nuclear issue with Russia, China Tuesday UK : Government to conduct early review into state pension age U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: “We urge Europe to adopt our approach on Russian oil tariffs.” He said 80 to 90 senators back a sanctions bill targeting Russia. “Any country buying sanctioned Russian oil could face secondary tariffs of up to 100%.” Former Swiss Private Banker Proposes Bold UBS Breakup JPMorgan explores lending against clients’ cryptocurrency - Bank’s chief Jamie Dimon once branded bitcoin a ‘fraud’ but he has now moderated his tone China’s mega dam unleashes ‘flurry’ of bullish iron ore trades Threats to the Fed go beyond firing Powell His thoughts might make Fed-watchers blanch. The issue is not just with President Donald Trump’s ever-escalating threats to fire Fed chair Jay Powell; Yarvin also wants Trump to smash the Fed’s independence by putting it under the sway of the Treasury, so it can restructure America’s $37tn debt and “unplug” its finance from the rest of the world. “My audacious plan is to merge the Fed and Treasury and revalue assets,” he explained. “It is very incorrect to regard Treasury obligations as debt — they are restricted stock. #gold EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst - when US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit most EU exports with 30% tariffs. The EU is prepared to stomach an unbalanced agreement that favors the US, but is also stepping up preparations to retaliate in a scenario where there is no agreement. The US is pushing for a near-universal tariff on EU goods higher than 10%, with limited exemptions, while the EU is seeking wider exemptions and looking to shield the bloc from future sectoral tariffs Judy Shelton on gold, tariffs and where the Fed went wrong - Central Banking We need to open up the Fed and move to a different construct, says Judy Shelton | Watch Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for a review of ‘the entire’ Federal Reserve – NBC New York Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "We've endured decades of unfair trade. Thanks to @POTUS and his ability to create maximum leverage, that era is over. This administration is prioritizing the quality of these deals, not how fast they're made. https://t.co/lAvnPOlAch " / X Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "In a speech at the Federal Reserve Capital Conference, I explained how “regulation by reflex” doesn’t work—for banks or consumers. Rather than preempting crises, bank regulators all too often react to them after the fact. They play the role of a hazmat cleanup team instead of" / X Trump's Aug. 1 tariffs will pressure trade partners: Bessent BHP ASX: Iron ore price hits four-month high as China’s mega dam in Tibet boosts steel demand Donald Trump Is Trapped | The New Republic Government to conduct early review into state pension age | Politics News | Sky News Trump admin live updates: Trump says US will attack Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary' - ABC News Iranian foreign minister says Iran cannot give up on nuclear enrichment | Reuters Fact-checking claims that France's working conditions are among worst in Europe Greece passes North Africa asylum ban amid rights groups’ opposition Greece...or EU policy ?.. Former Swiss Private Banker Proposes Bold UBS Breakup BYD criticizes UK's EV policy as 'stupid' - Breaking The News YouTube wipes out propaganda channels linked to China, Russia, others Porsche CEO Says Industry Challenges 'Hitting Us Hard,' Worse Than Other Automakers: Report Nvidia's China return buys time for Beijing to boost its chip drive OpenAI and SoftBank Group Partner to Develop and Market Advanced Enterprise AI | SoftBank Group Corp.

1st Aug hard deadline or TACO action again.. Markets : Trump went on to say that he didn't need Bessent to know about Powell risk (Thread below), one of his madest intervention yet?, U.S CPI was slightly softer (yet inflation expectations rose notably last week), Europe Prepares for a U.S. Trade Fight - the European Union still wants a deal, but with U.S. demands growing, the bloc is getting ready to push back , JPN ruling coalition lost control of upper house too>> busy earnings week ( #GOOD and #TSLA focus in majors), car companies globally really struggling, Hackers exploited flaw in Microsoft server software , still huge RU air-drone strikes on UKR + some reports of , Powell speaks tomorrow BoA:  Despite five consecutive downside surprises in the core CPI, y/y core PCE inflation could climb to 3% as early as July. In our view, a 3-handle would make it optically very challenging for the Fed to cut rates. BIS : AGENDA 2030 only happens in a CASHLESS economy, great...not... Trump is suing the Wall Street Journal over an Epstein report, seeking $10 billion in damages, that huge story will not go away.. U.S Manufacturing jobs have fallen from 43% of all private jobs in 1945 to just 9% today Central banks are increasingly buying gold from local mines as prices surge #XAUUSD Swatch may let you design your own MoonSwatch using artificial intelligence. Swatch 's artistic intelligence, named AI-DADA, will be used to design unique watches Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street. The veteran investor’s decision to ditch billions in banking stocks could be a canary in the coal mine #PLAT Valterra Platinum limited _ lower plat prod due to flooding as we said single source country risk 70% comes from S Africa Japan's Ishiba vows to stay despite suffering setback in elections #JPY Apple / EU Tech Regulation - UK government seeks way out of clash with US over Apple encryption - Officials fear technology deals with Washington could be impeded after Trump administration weighs in Iran has reached an agreement in principle to hold talks with the UK, France and Germany over its nuclear program, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Lutnick: August 1 is hard deadline Trump tariffs Microsoft Releases Urgent Patch for SharePoint RCE Flaw Exploited in Ongoing Cyber Attacks Porsche Plans More Cost Cuts To Counter Tariffs, China Slump - Bloomberg Morning Brew July 21 2025 | Saxo Bank Switzerland earnings and main economic data Trump Truth Social Posts On X on X: "The Wall Street Journal ran a typically untruthful story today by saying that Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, explained to me that firing Jerome “Too Late” Powell, the Worst Federal Reserve Chairman in History, would be bad for the Market. Nobody had to explain that to" / X Neil Sethi on X: "BoA: Despite five consecutive downside surprises in the core CPI, y/y core PCE inflation could climb to 3% as early as July. In our view, a 3-handle would make it optically very challenging for the Fed to cut rates. Moreover, we got the first clear indication of tariff https://t.co/OGrwwchfns " / X Swatch May Let You Design Your Own MoonSwatch Using Artificial Intelligence Albert Manifold appointed BP p.l.c. chair | News and insights | Home >>> M&A target ? Apple vs. EU: Tech Giant Disputes $580M Fine Over App Store Rules FBI agents told to flag Jeffrey Epstein records about Trump: Durbin How Huawei ascended from telecoms to become China's 'jack of all trades' AI leader Japan's Ishiba Vows To Stay Despite Suffering Setback In Elections Iran, E3 countries agree to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Istanbul VALTERRA PLATINUM LIMITED – Production Report For The Second Quarter Ending 30 June 2025 - Sens - Moneyweb Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street EU lowers price cap for Russian crude under new sanctions package Again... Central banks are buying gold from local mines amid record prices Pentagon to become rare-earth mining company's largest stockholder - Defense One Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition Paul Carlier on X: "Former HSBC Head of FX, Mark Johnson, has his 2017 conviction quashed! (See Andy Verity report on this below this post) 8 years too late and 8 years after I told everyone I could get to listen that this prosecution was a sham and that Mark and Stuart Scott had been served up by" / X Resist CBDC on X: "🚨AGENDA 2030 only happens in a CASHLESS economy. “In cash we don't know who is using a $100 bill today … key difference with CBDC is the Central Bank will have absolute control ... and the technology to enforce that." ~ Augustin Carstens BIS https://t.co/fUkSo5SIbH " / X