And it has/will clearly have an impact on sentiment pre and post IPO (if it goes well, all next IPO's will go ok, if not, they probably won't..OpenAi, Anthropic etc), some $55bn sold into the close last Friday by CTA's - most likely making room for this.. >>>> S&P Dow Jones did not change rules to make it easier for SpaceX $SPCX to get fast track entry into the S&P 500 (this after NASDAQ did change its rules – (reminiscent of the times when they changed rules in 2000 ?.. ..why change the rules......? ), meanwhile GS expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to surge 100-fold by 2030, these estimates depend on aggressive AI growth assumptions, pretty crazy valuations, take a stab at it and bet on the future ? look for a dip ‘to take a bet on the future’ ? .. Record‑high valuation and multi‑step markup Private valuation ramped from a few hundred billion to around 1.7–2.0 trillion in roughly 18 months, then IPOs at that peak range.Goldman Sachs Predicts SpaceX Revenue Will Surge 100X By 2030 Retail and index buyers are effectively stepping in after a ~5x private re‑rating, with little room for error on growth and profitability. SPACEX: The Biggest Insider Cashout in Market History? | Professor Of Chart By S on Binance Square SpaceX says it’s worth $1.75tn as it targets largest stock market debut All‑primary IPO but designed for fast insider liquidity later The IPO itself is “all‑primary”: only SpaceX sells shares at the offering, so insiders are not selling in the IPO transaction. However, the structure is set up so that insiders can begin unloading relatively soon after, turning later buyers into their exit liquidity. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Unusually aggressive, staggered lock‑up schedule Instead of a standard 180‑day “no selling” lock‑up, SpaceX uses performance‑ and time‑based tranches. SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO After the first earnings report as a public company, insiders can sell up to around 20% of eligible shares, with an extra 10% if the stock is about 30% above IPO price. Additional 7% chunks then unlock at multiple short intervals (around 70–135 days), and more shares unlock after the second earnings report, so a large portion can be sold well before 180 days. Musk locked for a year, others aren’t Elon Musk commits to not selling for roughly 366 days, so he cannot use the early‑release tranches. Most other insiders and early investors can, so tens of billions in stock can hit the market months before his lock‑up ends. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Rule changes to fast‑track index inclusion Nasdaq, Russell and potentially S&P adjust their index rules so mega‑IPOs like SpaceX can be added in weeks instead of many months. S&P refuses to waive rules for megacap IPOs ahead of SpaceX listing (SPCX:Pending) | Seeking Alpha This means index funds and many 401(k) / passive vehicles may be forced buyers shortly after listing, creating built‑in demand against which insiders can sell. Low float plus rapid float expansion The IPO starts with a relatively low free float, which can help the price run up if demand is strong. The staggered lock‑up then quickly increases float as insiders sell, potentially creating a series of supply waves into any post‑IPO enthusiasm. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Retail / index buyers as “exit liquidity” The combination of (a) extreme valuation, (b) fast index inclusion, and (c) early insider unlocks is framed as using retail and passive capital as exit liquidity for early investors. If growth or margins disappoint, late buyers could be left holding a highly priced, capital‑intensive and still loss‑making business while insiders have already sold a meaningful slice. Narrative vs. fundamentals risk The IPO is marketed on a huge TAM — rockets, launch, Starlink, AI — and “generational” status, but at >100x sales and ongoing large losses, the margin for execution errors is tiny. The thread’s core claim: even if SpaceX is an amazing company long‑term, the IPO structure and timing are optimized for insiders, not for new public investor SpaceX IPO at $750B: Should You Buy In? [2026]

Iran updates : Trump pleads with Netanyahu after horror airstrikes on Iran war's 100th day... (widening gap between US and Israel..), A White House official is now reportedly saying Trump made a "fundamental miscalculation" when it comes to Iran. For months, Trump has been saying a deal with Iran was close. Just today, he said Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a U.S.-Iran agreement and insisted the negotiations were still on track. Then Iran launched another major missile attack. Then Israel responded with more strikes. Now, according to this official, the administration is admitting it fundamentally misread how Iran would behave>>> This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, capacity, and willingness to put hard power against Israeli military manoeuvers or aggression against a third party!.. Markets : so finally QQQ comes back to a little bit of reality, plenty of 'worse day YTD', ok but a reminder NASDAQ has gone up some 30-35% since early April !, plenty of crowded trades hammered, URA, Precious metals, Gold miners, very decent liquidatin of owned positions, preparing for the biggest IPO ever, it has been reported that CTA's sold some $55bn on Friday into the close. KOSPI (South Korea is the ultimate leading indicator for global growth...and equity valuation madness lately...), NIKKEI which have had a bombastic run up, also have come off fairly sharply.. >>> beware MOMENUM, clearly turned, and NO wonder.. as discussed last week, it happens after NASDAQ changed rules for the SpaceX IPO.. ! ... not good...and duration, UST yields up too, 10's 4.57%, there was no hiding after a strong NFP on Friday (+170K) #USDJPY Japan sold some 73bn USD not long ago, and here we are, back to same lev The worst possible welcome gift for a new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already facing his first major inflation shock CPI jumps to 4.1%. Highest in 3 years Core CPI jumps to 2.8%. Highest in 9 months Trump wanted rate cuts Warsh wanted rate cuts Inflation just said: not happening!... not a friendly outcome for markets either #QQQ Israeli military launches retaliatory strikes on Iran after Tehran attacks northern Israel - follow live - BBC News Trump pleads with Netanyahu after horror airstrikes on Iran war's 100th day - AOL A White House official is now reportedly saying Trump made a "fundamental miscalculation" when it comes to Iran. For months, Trump has been saying a deal with Iran was close. Just today, he said Netanyahu would have "no choice" but to accept a U.S.-Iran agreement and insisted the negotiations were still on track. Then Iran launched another major missile attack. Then Israel responded with more strikes. Now, according to this official, the administration is admitting it fundamentally misread how Iran would behave Trump lost it, and stormed out.....worst meltdown ever... 'I've had enough': Donald Trump loses temper, throws mic, walks out of interview when asked about false election fraud claims, what exactly happened? 'Clown' Pete Hegseth branded a 'disgrace' for anniversary D-Day speech in France - AOL Nasdaq Suffers Sharpest Drop Since April 2025 as Chip Stocks Lose $1.3T Starmer hosts Zelensky and French and German leaders for talks on Ukraine - AOL #JPY Bull Theory on X: "BREAKING: The Japanese Yen just hit 160 against the dollar again, the same level Japan spent $73 billion trying to defend earlier this year. It did not work and The yen is back at 160. A weak yen is a direct inflation crisis for Japan. The country imports nearly all of its https://t.co/8e9TMVM39p" / X Banks Lay Groundwork for Mass Workforce Cuts as AI Takes Hold - Bloomberg Switzerland faces new US tariffs over forced labour concerns - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland will not join EU Copernicus scheme in coming years - SWI swissinfo.ch For most of the war, Ukraine couldn’t touch it. This week its drones reached the heart of Putin’s Russia — twice EndGame Macro on X: "The KOSPI Shock Is A Warning About Crowded AI Trades The KOSPI’s 8.4% opening plunge is a forced repricing in a market that had become one of the cleanest global expressions of the AI and semiconductor trade. South Korea is not trading like a broad, neutral equity market right" / X

Iran updates : Trump says he could meet Iran’s supreme leader ‘if it was to make a deal’, China's Xi to visit North Korea next week, first time since 2019 Markets: S&P momentum index (2months % change near 30% - another big warning sign - chart available on request), Deutsche Bank on the huge stock market run-up: "Since WWII, the only other time the S&P 500 has risen this rapidly (except after a recession) was months before a huge market crash.", Oracle is cutting 30,000 employees by June 15, roughly 18% of its global workforce, PM's testing key support (GOLD 200dma $ 4430, Silver 71.50, BTC through 60K would send alarm bells for the bulls, Iron Ore lower, Copper softer etc.. >>> sign of slower economy, stronger USD ahead of the biggest bigly ever IPO, where you can take a view on 'valuations' or the future, India CB cuts (lower growth outlook), S&P Dow Jones will not change rules to make it easier for SpaceX $SPCX to get fast track entry into the S&P 500 (this after NASDAQ did change rules), Across 50+ central banks worldwide, the number of rate hikes exceeded the number of cuts in May, first time it has happened since Oct 2023... a turn! RBI may have sold nearly $12 billion worth of Gold lately #USD liquidity ! Chinese EVs are cheap and popular — so why not let them flood western markets? Soumaya Keynes and Paul Krugman weigh the arguments on whether the US and Europe should embrace China's comparative advantage in the sector/Podcast South Korea labour minister calls on tech firms to share excess AI profits with suppliers, staff down sharply Bitcoin was sold as the asset that survives geopolitical chaos. The chaos arrived. Bitcoin bled/Thread (...and Saylor who would never ever sell BTC, sold some at $77k) BYD opens first German Denza store in posh Hamburg neighbourhood, takes aim at Porsche The world can’t keep consuming more than it produces Trump’s 250th Celebration Is a Fiasco - The Atlantic Iran US Israel War Live Updates: Khamenei Declares New Front 'Within' Iran War As Israeli Strikes Continue | Times Now How Ukraine war is playing out in the skies US officials eye government stakes in AI companies, NOTUS reports | Reuters RBI may have sold gold to save foreign reserves, BE report shows - The Economic Times India's cenbank keeps rates steady at 5.25% How to win a trade war, with Paul Krugman and Chad Bown 30 mins podcast Why Oracle is Cutting 30,000 Jobs Despite a $6 Billion Quarterly Income Michael Burry is shorting NVDA, Steve Eisman says not so fast: Why the 'Big Short' stars are on opposite sides of the trade Bitcoin News: BTC USD Just Hit Its Lowest Level Since February BTC Crashed 12% as $1.85B Liquidated: Blaming Saylor Is Wrong STRATEGY'S BITCOIN U-TURN:WSJ For years, Michael Saylor urged investors to never sell bitcoin—famously saying, “Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the bitcoin.” Now, his company, Strategy, is preparing to sell part of its bitcoin holdings to remain solvent. The irony is hard to miss: Saylor still appears to have both kidneys. ITM Power deepens UK hydrogen push with Protium partnership – The Armchair Trader How Ryanair Built Europe's Most Profitable Airline By Making Flying As Uncomfortable As Possible Andy Burnham puts No 10 ambitions on the record - NATIONAL NEWS - The Leamington Observer Ships in Persian Gulf quietly coordinate with U.S. Navy to exit Hormuz BYD targets Porsche, BMW, Audi in Germany with Denza premium brand - Automotive News The world can’t keep consuming more than it produces

Iran update : Trump says ‘crazy’ Netanyahu has made everyone hate Israel in furious phone call – Axios report, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu offered differing accounts of the situation with Lebanon, with the US saying Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt attacks while Netanyahu signaled operations would continue, US in talks to expand nuclear weapons deployments in Europe. Washington has signalled openness to additional countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers Markets : ...the rules changed and then SpaceX files for IPO, 'BEWARE' !.., Alphabet to raise another $80bn to fund AI buildout (-2% after hours), cash now makes up 3.9% of BoAFM's only (biggest monthly drop in cash), OIL up and down on headlines though still near $90 (NO big spike to $150 as some predicted, perhaps the risk is a LONG period of near 90+..like a structural supply shock), RBA’s Harper Worries Over ‘Uptick’ in Inflation Expectations, EV sales set to hit 23 million in 2026 as nearly 1 in 3 new cars goes electric worldwide, Goldman Sachs just warned clients quietly: Big funds are selling GOOD and NVDA and other megacaps right now to raise cash specifically to buy SpaceX when it IPOs on June 12 >>> at $1.8 Trillion SpaceX IPO valuation is it worth buying? SpaceX: 2025: Net loss $4.9B 2026 Q1: Net loss $4.3B Priced at 94x revenue pricing in decades of future growth today. What do you think?...going to pass personally, utterly overpriced & overhyped ! this is in fact like looting the coffers... one could even argue of a 'fraudulent' approach Bolton: The Rubicon is crossed — Iran now knows it can close the Strait whenever it wants leverage Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy. Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes. Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University (Thread) Chinese labs with ties to military seeking Nvidia’s AI chips The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is less than 10 days away from falling to its lowest level since August 1983- a level not seen since the SPR's initial fill-up that began in 1977- per Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan. Fund managers are all in on stocks, BofA survey finds The AI Layoff Trap The loop has no natural exit. The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements. Every single one failed in the model. The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger. Alphabet to raise $80 billion from stock sales to fund AI buildout Trump says ‘crazy’ Netanyahu has made everyone hate Israel in furious phone call – report - AOL Australia lifts minimum wage by 4.75% as inflation reaccelerates | Reuters Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules. For 23 years, those rules held. Then SpaceX filed for IPO >>> AND the rules changed. The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to. Except the rules used to say they didn't.... EV sales set to hit 23 million in 2026 as nearly 1 in 3 new cars goes electric worldwide UBS cut hundreds of jobs in reduction phase, media reports - SWI swissinfo.ch Questions raised over Reform’s ‘multimillion-pound black ... US in talks to expand nuclear weapons deployments in Europe, FT says | Reuters Chinese labs with ties to military seeking Nvidia’s AI chips - The Japan Times Chinese firms’ market share gains driven by subsidies, says OECD Ole S Hansen on X: "#Commodities Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian" / X Eco Buildings to take on UK's housing crisis – The Armchair Trader

Blue origin's new Glenn rocket exploded on the launchpad during a hotfire test at launch complex 36.. not during flight.. on the ground.. before it even left the pad..FAA investigation now required before any resumption.. weeks to months of schedule slip minimum before a re-flight attempt is even possible.... IPO delay ?... Iran updates : Deal or No deal.. down to the details, always, cash and Lebanon.., details are hardening, Iran will sign peace with the US only if Washington wires $24B of frozen assets first. $12B on signing, $12B over the next 60 days, Trump and Co threatening Oamn, Qatar and pretty much anyone to sign what they want... signs he US empire is declining.., Russia overspends on Putin’s war in Ukraine by $28bn Markets : Exxon's just said oil inventories will hit "really, really low levels" in 2–3 weeks, Pimco Warns AI Data Centers Are Flooding Junk Bonds, $250 bill - are you sure ?..see below, Elliott wave : Bullish sentiment hits a 29-year extreme, A Company accidentally spent $500 million on Claude AI in one month after forgetting usage limits...mindboggling stuff..Morgan Stanley just doubled its European bank job cut forecast from 10% to 20% by 2030, roughly 400,000 roles, ABN Amro is cutting 20% of staff by 2028, HSBC is trimming 20,000 roles, Banks are spending today on the promise of tomorrow savings, That is bet, not plan Nothing sums up the death of accountability like the prospect of Nigel Farage in No 1 Has Peter Thiel ‘relocated’ to Argentina? What the NYT report really says #GOLD Ex-CIA official arrested after $40M in gold bars allegedly found inside his home Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket explodes in massive fireball during prelaunch test | Space Blue Origin rocket explosion rocks Florida's Space Coast US and Iran reach tentative deal, pending Trump's approval Totally normal ?.. Anthropic vaults to a $965 billion valuation with new funding as Claude demand surges Putin’s secret plan to fund the Ukraine war is building a $200,000,000,000 time bomb inside Russia’s banks Saxo's daily from Erik : Morning Brew May 29 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher Pimco Says Junk Debt for Data Centers Diverging Into Two Markets - Bloomberg Trump administration prepares for proposed $250 bill with the president’s face on it Fact check: Has Peter Thiel ‘relocated’ to Argentina? What the NYT report really says Could be that Peter Thiel is cooking up a plan B for fleeing the United States and hunkering down in Argentina, an indicator perhaps of how bad he think it’s going to get for the new right and how dramatically JD Vance has failed as a viable political vehicle for Thiel’s agenda, probably just some sort of 'elite optionality to bugger off there if things go bad in the US of A.....imho'' Company accidentally spent $500 million on Claude AI in one month after forgetting usage limits - Tech Startups 🤣🤣🤦🤦 Uber burned their entire 2026 budget by April. Their COO said he can’t connect any of it to consumer features....A CTO told Axios employees were using enterprise AI to check the weather ....Microsoft canceled most Claude Code licenses because the token bill spiraled....so Companies are now laying people off to pay the AI bill. Not because AI replaced the work. Because the bill replaced the headcount. Ex-CIA official arrested after $40M in gold bars allegedly found inside his home - CBS NewIr Nothing sums up the death of accountability like the prospect of Nigel Farage in No 10 | George Monbiot | The Guardian Trump administration prepares for proposed $250 bill with the president’s face on it :-) If this goes forward — $250 bill with Trump's face on it. — Chinese will get a huge kick out of it. "250" (二百五， èrbǎiwǔ) is a common Chinese insult meaning a half-wit, a blockhead, a fool. Comedy writes itself. 笑死. Elliott Wave International on X: "Most investors see the S&P at all-time highs. Few notice what’s happening underneath the surface. The S&P just hit an all-time high while 5% of its stocks made new 52-week lows - that has only occurred 4 times in U.S. market history. July 1929. January 1973. December 1999. And https://t.co/LBGGs5aAhU" / X

Is Ai THAT good ? Starbucks, MSFT and Uber say 'nope'... (see below articles)....China adds AI chips to secure technology assessment list amid US curbs >> In plain English: American chips are being pushed out of China’s most sensitive procurement systems — party organs, government agencies, state-owned enterprises, and strategic public sectors, and China capital outflows stories, are flows heading into HK.. (Thread) Iran war updates : Trump asserted that no one nation would control the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, highlighting a key sticking point in resolving the war with Iran. Hours later, American forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site, as a resolution to the war that began nearly three months ago remains elusive despite recent optimism. A US official said the attacks were defensive and the US intends to maintain the existing ceasefire, Trump continues to suggest a deal with Iran is close, he finds himself caught between two extremes: Tehran’s demand for financial relief and an end to attacks, and pressure from Republican hawks to “finish the job” — or at least not to sign a bad deal, pressure is on for Trump to accept and declare any deal done..Trump painted himself in a corner by trashing JCPOA ("Obama deal") only to find out that his improvisations can only get a worse deal, yup we all know this.. Markets : Chart of the Week - Korea? For most investors the KOSPI is not the first index they check when they get to the desk, Eq a little softer Iran/US negotiation deadlock (Lebanon trivcky amongst other things..!), China’s yuan is rapidly eating into dollar dominance Goldman Sachs says RMB use in China-linked trade surged from 13% in 2019 to 30% last year, while cross-border yuan transactions exploded from 9 trillion yuan in 2017 to 64 trillion in 2024. Beijing sees the yuan's internationalization as strategic insurance — and the trend is only accelerating Elon Musk wants a SpaceX IPO valuing the company at upwards of $1.75 trillion >>> to get there he got the rules changed so that index funds, with millions of Americans' retirement savings, are forced to buy in #SpaceX IS AI that GOOD ?? ...maybe not ....these -3- say 'nope', -3- massive setbacks it seems.. and they will have to monetize ti all on current valuastions ?.. hummm Starbucks scraps AI inventory tool across North America: Reuters Microsoft Pulls the Plug on Claude Code Licenses: What Developers Need to Know | The Coders Blog | Home Uber AI Budget Blown: Claude Code Costs Hit $3.4B in 2026 | byteiota "Lex SpaceX"? Nasdaq changes index rules for Musk's IPO | heise online Iran-US-Israel War News Live: At Least 6 Killed In Israeli Strikes On Southern Lebanon - News18 China adds AI chips to secure technology assessment list amid US curbs | South China Morning Post Fed's Cook says inflation is moving in the wrong direction, but she's looking to hold rates steady Chart of the Week - Korea? - by Callum Thomas NEXTA on X: "🤖 AI turned out to be too expensive to replace humans Microsoft has started limiting employee access to Anthropic models and revoking Claude Code licenses. Uber is also cutting AI spending: the technology is becoming too expensive and failing to justify expectations. https://t.co/NAGNMNfHcG" / X Javier Blas on X: "Must read from @michalmei on how China has managed to reduce oil imports so sharply without (based on available data) tapping stocks. She offers an alternative to the ‘China-is-tapping-in-secret-its-SPR’ narrative, focusing on refinery yield shifts. 📑: https://t.co/XmH0RuFf1t" / X BP chair Manifold hits back at 'false' misconduct claims Can the US economy really afford $100 oil? – The Armchair Trader Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is quite funny. There were these two stories over the past 24 hours: 1) "China is seeing massive capital outflows" 2) "Hong Kong overtakes Switzerland as hub for global offshore wealth" But it's actually one and the same story: China is seeing massive capital outflows BUT https://t.co/PHJDmeNlyC" / X

Iran, UKR-RU war updates : Europe is starting to think Putin will expand the war beyond Ukraine, President Trump’s Board Of Peace Fund Is Empty - FT, If some of you still had doubts that US "allies" are actively preparing for a US withdrawal from Asia, South Korea's president spelled it out clearly (Thread), Markets : Micron joins the $1trn club after UBS raises its price target from 525 to...1625 (not messing about with new price target !!), SO many headlines about the current 'NASDAQ, Ai bubble' being worse than any other (Thread -s), suddenly crude, gold, copper, silver...and yields all down (commodity sector cooling), FX nothing much going on as yields tend to move together though USDJPY near 160 may renew BoJ/MOF interest Ex-Credit Suisse Risk Chief has Swiss criminal case dismissed UBS Group AG’s Asia Pacific President Iqbal Khan said artificial intelligence will free up capacity and improve productivity but also have an impact on jobs. “If we can use that capacity to serve our clients better, gain more share of the wallet, grow faster, grow more, then the impact on costs and jobs is going to be less,” said Khan in an interview with Bloomberg Television Europe Is Starting to Think Putin Will Expand the War Beyond Ukraine - WSJ Eurointelligence | Geopolitics and economics from a European perspective India’s growth story: a long term perspective – The Armchair Trader 이재명 on X: "지금 우리는 그 어느 때보다 중대한 선택의 기로에 서 있습니다. 국제질서는 빠르게 재편되고 있으며, 안보 환경 또한 한 치 앞을 예측하기 어려울 만큼 급변하고 있습니다. 이러한 시대일수록 국가의 원칙과 방향은 더욱 분명해야 합니다. 자주국방은 더 이상 선택이 아닌, 국가의 존립과 국민의 https://t.co/KhXeSraVuh" / X If some of you still had doubts that US "allies" are actively preparing for a US withdrawal from Asia, here's South Korea's president spelling it out The timing of the impending crude crisis | Brookings Trump's board of peace fund yet to receive money from donors: FT Silver miners relative to gold miners appear to be on the verge of a significant breakout List of Technical Setups - Tavi Costa An international platform is entering the European market: more and more Europeans are becoming investors and receiving a stable income from $3,599 - what do experts think about this? Alex Mason 👁△ on X: "🚨 THIS IS THE END OF THE AI BUBBLE SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public at the same time. $5.4T in combined capitalization. That is 8.4% of the entire S&P 500. The market needs $250B in fresh capital to absorb them. That money has to come from https://t.co/AvtDP6XuMK" / X Samantha LaDuc on X: "AI bulls gonna push it into 10, aren't they... BofA Hartnett writes: "consensus max bullish on Positioning & Profits, plus yields breaking up suggests some profit taking here; but no one cutting longs in stocks before historic IPOs and big top Policy tightening will come after https://t.co/BmESrKNsZK" / X The world’s biggest EV maker weans itself off supply-chain finance BYD for years used billions owed to suppliers as cheap financing to fund its rapid growth from a little-known component maker to a powerhouse reshaping the world’s auto industry. Now, Beijing is forcing it to clean up its books Why Micron stock surged to a new all-time high today UBS' Khan on China business, AI impact and Middle East (full interview) | Watch Ed Elson on X: "I read all 277 pages of SpaceX's IPO filing so you don't have to. Losses up 700%. Revenue decelerating. 107x price-to-sales multiple. It's a trainwreck. Full breakdown below 👇" / X Going to be fascinating! Ex-Credit Suisse Risk Chief Has Swiss Criminal Case Dismissed - SWI swissinfo.ch Why, might one ask...

Iran war updates: Tehran’s negotiators in Qatar; Israel pounds Lebanon, Crude : While we await for the deal, I think we can already highlight a few oil lessons: 1) Although we don’t yet understand how, China can reduce oil imports massively (>5m b/d cut) 2) Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines work 3) OECD nations can release their SPR at flow rates of >2.5m b/d Markets : global equities slightly off Monday highs, bits of tensions in ME, but they are higher broadly speaking, Crude well under 100 mark-low 90's, yields slightly softer, FX pretty boring and quiet, DeepSeek is now up to 50x CHEAPER than OpenAI and Anthropic for AI tokens - DeepSeek’s latest permanent 75% price cut pushed some inference costs down to fractions of a cent per million tokens. >>> SPX call buying is frankly in absolute euphoria levels.., reaching pretty crazy levels never ever seen before, not even close, Uber's COO says it's getting harder to justify the money spent on AI tokenmaxxing Pretty insane: the U.S. just tried to literally re-colonize part of the Philippines (Thread) Beijing’s economic walls are visibly cracking as citizens trigger the largest financial exodus in modern history Why Trump’s possible Iran deal is becoming almost as politically divisive as the war itself Iran war updates: Tehran’s negotiators in Qatar; Israel pounds Lebanon | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera Trump’s Hormuz gambit and Abraham Accords expansion: How does it sideline Palestine? BREAKING: Saudi Arabia Just SLAMMED Trump’s Big Middle East Dream! & Saudi wants Independent Palestinian state. Trump : “Every Middle East country MUST join the Abraham Accords as part of the Iran peace deal! It’ll be HISTORIC!” Saudi Arabia has OFFICIALLY rejected Trump’s demand… Saudi: “We REJECT that. No normalization with Israel unless there’s an irreversible pathway to an independent Palestinian state.” Saudi just reminded everyone: Palestine is still the ultimate red line Bond Traders Bet Fed Under Warsh Will Hike Rates This Year Bull Theory on X: "THIS IS INSANE 🚨 DeepSeek is now up to 50x CHEAPER than OpenAI and Anthropic for AI tokens. DeepSeek’s latest permanent 75% price cut pushed some inference costs down to fractions of a cent per million tokens. AI companies charge based on input tokens, output tokens, cached https://t.co/HW0Tnd36hG" / X Real wages start to shrink in developed countries Which company will the U.S. government take a stake in next? Blackstone's flagship private credit fund posts first monthly loss in over three years - The Economic Times Musk could earn $760 billion from SpaceX Mars-shot pay packages SpaceX is about to go public. It could be the least shareholder-friendly public company of all time | Fortune Uber's COO says it's getting harder to justify the money spent on AI tokenmaxxing Ferrari just unveiled its first EV. The internet wasted no time roasting it. Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is pretty insane: the U.S. just tried to literally re-colonize part of the Philippines. They did so under the so-called "Pax Silica" initiative, the brainchild of - surprise, surprise - an ex-Palantir guy named Jacob Helberg who now runs U.S. economic "diplomacy" from the https://t.co/RRIT5nvgpO" / X UnveiledChina on X: "Beijing’s economic walls are visibly cracking as citizens trigger the largest financial exodus in modern history. A staggering $1.04 trillion in hot money bled out of the country over the past year alone. This massive, unprecedented flight of capital marks the highest level of https://t.co/wKYEWE6L74" / X Must be good reasons the state let it happens... since they KNOW absolutely everything Swiss glacier shows instability near disaster‑hit Blatten - SWI swissinfo.ch

SpaceX ... mindboggling numbers...for a company that lost $5bn last year.. THIS IS the liquidity event, the most expensive, biggest IPO ever.. it will be fascinating!!, valuations don't matter, till they eventually do... Iran Update : Marco Rubio sees ‘good signs’ US could reach deal with Iran. Pakistani mediators expected to travel to Tehran as diplomacy to end conflict intensifies, Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month. The crypto transactions took place despite repeated red flags. Binance says it has “zero‑tolerance for illicit activity.”..., Markets : ‘Fast entry’ SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs to ignite Wall St trading frenzy. Passive investors set to dump billions of shares to make way for new stocks, Margin debt is surging into crazy levels (chart available on request), U.S Mortgage Rates hit a 9months high in blow to Prime Buying Season. The 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.51% this week and looks poised to keep rising Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means! (Thread) Jensen Huang says Nvidia has "largely conceded" China's AI chip market to Huawei 'Some good signs' a US-Iran deal to end war could be in sight, Marco Rubio reveals Although.. Supreme leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, sources say | Irish Independent OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic will reshape how investors access artificial intelligence SpaceX IPO: Inside the S-1 filing, potential valuation, and what Elon Musk's empire means for the market Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 on X: "🚨YOU ARE THE EXIT LIQUIDITY You are about to be offered the most expensive IPO in modern history. SpaceX's S-1 just dropped. The headline numbers: - 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion - 2025 net loss: $4.9 billion - Q1 2026: still losing money - Reported IPO valuation target: https://t.co/vaPLoKjsGN" / X Ricardo on X: "Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the https://t.co/zU7TYupLD9" / X Alex Mason 👁△ on X: "🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.7T. That’s 7.2% of the entire Nasdaq. Without being public companies. Without https://t.co/fhFjAMG4R9" / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was https://t.co/gwezqfPK0U" / X The document contains perhaps the most authoritative description of where China thinks its relationship with the U.S. stands, and where it’s headed. The title of the report is “The Great Global Transformation and the Path to U.S.–China Coexistence” and I provide a full translation of it in my article, the link of which is at the bottom of this post. To summarize briefly the most important - and, perhaps, surprising - aspect of the document: China's spy agency - the one institution whose entire job is to worry about the U.S. threat - has largely stopped worrying 'Chess Piece’ to ‘Blood Bag’? What Trump-Xi Summit Could Spell for India - The Wire Can copper prices push past historic highs? – The Armchair Trader The 'Boris Johnson trap' Farage risks falling into over £5m gift Elliott Wave International on X: "🚨 Stock valuations have drifted beyond the edge of the financial solar system. The S&P 500’s dividend yield is sitting near its 2000 extreme at just 1.06%, while the S&P 400 Industrials’ price-to-book ratio has reached an all-time high of 8.02. In other words: investors are https://t.co/lhh5nGq1iT" / X Nvidia's impressive earnings fall flat with investors. Has the stock lost its edge?

Iran deal, SpaceX, Ai and crude down, markets loving it Iran update : Trump close to a deal with Iran..., Iran is consolidating control of Hormuz with island checkpoints, diplomatic deals –and sometimes ‘fees’. Iran is enforcing a multi-tiered system for clearing vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has warned against complying with Iran’s controls. Some shippers and governments are taking the risk Markets : Many Fed officials called for the central bank to drop its easing bias and signal its next move may be a rate hike, according to minutes of last month’s meeting, Israel parliament dissolved, China banned NVDA RTX 5090D V2 chip!, SpaceX IPO coming, Gold miners are now doing more share buybacks than at any other point in history >>> markets higher quite easily again, crude sub 100 again, 5pct or so down on Trump taunting a great Iran deal Big Tech software era is over, says top investor James Anderson. Former Baillie Gifford fund manager says spoils of AI war will flow to hardware suppliers French PMIs registered one of the largest drops in output and employment outside covid and the sovereign debt crisis. Inflationary pressures are rising and tighter financial conditions will only make things worse Trump says willing to wait for a few days to get 'right answer' on Iran peace deal - Yahoo News UK Fed April Meeting Minutes Offer Color On Handling Rising Inflation Risks Federal Reserve Board - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2026 BoJ’s Koeda: Core inflation is already near 2% Xi and Putin wrap up talks in Beijing with no final details on gas pipeline - follow live - BBC News The skunk at the party: Jamie Dimon warns about inflation and oil prices spiking at the same time, which historically led to recessions Jeff Bezos says bottom half of earners should pay zero in income taxes ..It was admitting out loud that the people carrying the country on their backs are getting crushed while the system tells them it’s “normal.” Europe markets cautious as flash PMI numbers miss estimates Israel’s parliament has dissolved. Is this the end for Netanyahu? Japan exports rise for eighth month despite supply disruptions | Reuters Revolut receives green light for UK leveraged trading services – The Armchair Trader Mining: More Profitable Than Tech - Tavi Costa The SpaceX IPO filing is filled with AI bets, Starship dreams, and Elon Musk at the center | TechCrunch Nvidia delivered an earnings beat. See the key numbers. BUT...China just added Nvidia's RTX 5090D V2 to its customs banned list. During Jensen Huang's visit. With Trump in town. The chip was designed specifically to meet US export rules. Banned anyway. Beijing is making it clear: the era of Chinese reliance on US tech is over. China banned Nvidia’s gaming chip while CEO Jensen Huang was visiting Beijing with Trump Peak Farage already, and he has to answer questions now about that £5mio 'donation' or bribe depending on who you ask.. The Daily Britain on X: "21 kicked out. 28 defected. 39 resigned. 5 suspended. 1 disqualified. 5 lost seats. That's approximately 99 Reform UK councillors and representatives who have left the party. 22 of them since the local elections just two weeks ago. The party claims "some of the strongest https://t.co/ROa7yG7ZFk" / X

It's NVDA earnings time after the bell again Iran update : Trump appears to be trying to shift attention from Iran to Cuba (you just know its when not if), NATO may send naval forces to protect Strait of Hormuz oil route amid US-Iran tensions, crude softer overnight though, welcome ! And in true authoritarian style... Donald Trump and sons granted ‘forever’ immunity from existing tax audits Justice department deal comes day after government set up $1.8bn fund to pay president’s allies hit by alleged ‘lawfare’ Markets : Global M2 money supply has reached $141T in 2026, up 9.3%, in other words your savings just got diluted by 9.3% in one year (hence most asset prices higher - not all but most), Japanese government bond yields are BREAKING RECORDS across the curve (Thread-chart), Biggest risk to stocks says BofA: a "second wave" of inflation, 30-year TIPS now yielding nearly 3% real, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19% >>>> WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? not AI stocks, nor real estate...but BONDS ... "The earnings outlook is more dependent on a few stocks than ever before" --BofA the top 5 cos make up around a quarter of S&P 500 earnings Too euphoric Goldman Sachs-“Market pricing of US growth is beyond even our 2027 forecasts" (all about the money supply, big beautiful deal-free money.. checks..) Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia, well.. Jackson Pollock painting sells for record $181m at auction Jeffrey Currie : Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the “Munificent 7”. Who are they? Donald Trump and sons granted ‘forever’ immunity from existing tax audits #GOLD Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold has settled into a relatively narrow USD 4,500-4,590 Fibonacci retracement band and, more broadly, remains trapped between two moving averages: the 200-day moving average near USD 4,355 on the downside and the 50-day moving average around USD 4,705 on the upside. The https://t.co/9rTrZTWzt1" / X The Case for Locking In 3% Real Returns - by Bob Elliott The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread) https://t.co/Yyi1R00DPV" / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🔴 Japanese government bond yields are BREAKING RECORDS across the curve: The 40-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to 4.39%, the highest since this maturity was introduced in 2007. The 30-year yield has surged to 4.15%, the highest since its debut in 1999 while the https://t.co/bQea5q5npN" / X Trump’s China Opening and Japan’s Taiwan Anxiety – The Diplomat NATO Weighing Naval Deployment in Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Iran Tensions: Report | Mathrubhumi English UK growth forecast upgraded by IMF but 'risks' remain Starmer must go before next election, say Labour-backing unions Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia – POLITICO ...Angela bears major responsibility for Europe’s post‑2022 economic mess: she shut nuclear, underinvested in renewables, and left Germany dangerously reliant on Russian gas. That dependence was then weaponised by Moscow, turning a long‑running policy error into a self‑inflicted strategic disaster.... James Wood 武杰士 on X: "🇨🇳 Xi Jinping doesn’t just “fight” corruption: For over 13 years he’s waged total war on it 💪 Millions of officials investigated, tens of thousands punished, “tigers” at the very top dragged down without mercy. No one, not even close allies or family, was considered off-limits. https://t.co/opCxr2xvnJ" / X Ex-Samsung Chip Boss Says China's DRAM Blitz Could Crush The 414% DDR5 Price Spike Within A Year Jackson Pollock painting sells for record $181m at US auction Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ on X: "Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the “Munificent 7”. Who are they? They are oil companies and asset-heavy businesses generating real free cash flow yields in an AI sector that is trying to achieve breakout despite increasing constraints by energy, https://t.co/87xbNHiGuy" / X

Iran update : Donald Trump said he called off a strike on Iran planned for Tuesday after an appeal by the leaders of Persian Gulf allies, who called for more time to pursue a diplomatic resolution. “I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday evening, hours after his announcement in a social media post, crude is still 105+.. Trump reportedly paused additional strikes on Iran partly over Pentagon concerns that Tehran was becoming more effective at tracking U.S. air operations and improving its air defenses - NYT... TACO supreme... Markets : and this matters now...'G7 government bond yields at highest levels since 2004', JGB 30's now 4.15, UST's 5.15% (keep spending and increase debt?.. #bondvigilane out in force now.. )..., equity markets rallied again into the close as Trump TACO'ed - what else, WTI still $109 though..., yields now really going to hurt risk overall, let alone if bonds have a 'free fall' Xi Jinping REFUSED to meet with any billionaire CEO’s Trump brought along to China Rubio just said something every investor with global exposure needs to hear. China has a plan. They believe they will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. And they are executing on that plan IMF staff: UK government must stay course on deficit reduction, given market pressures and greater implementation risks Putin is traveling to Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow Crude : The U.S. injected ~9.9 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market last week. That’s a record high flow of >1.4 million barrels a day. It’s the second consecutive SPR record high flow rate And that's really beginning to matter for risk in general dailyspark-2026-05-17.pdf 'G7 government bond yields at highest levels since 2004' / Apollo Driven by : 1) renewed inflationary pressure from elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supply, 2) persistently large government deficits requiring ever-increasing bond issuance, 3) the end of central bank quantitative easing with the Fed balance sheet potentially shrinking, and 4) investors demanding higher term premiums and inflation premiums amid deglobalization and increased geopolitical fragmentation. Trump says he's postponing Iran attack at Middle East leaders' request #JPY Japan ready to act on FX volatility, mindful of US bond market impact | Reuters RBA Minutes: Members see case for rate hike as inflation expectations risk grows Meta Is Reportedly 'Reassigning' 7,000 Employees To AI-Focused Roles Rubio warns America must 'stay ahead of the curve' as China works to surpass the US with stolen tech - AOL Japan economy grows at annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, beating expectations Unemployment back up as UK job vacancies fall US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries | Reuters :-) Middle Eastern Affairs on X: "🚨Trump: I think that countries like Japan and China have neither the courage nor the will to open the Strait of Hormuz.” China:The Strait of Hormuz was already open before the war. You are the ones who created the war out of nothing and closed the strait to the rest of the https://t.co/iDpV4d2dj8" / X