Trump-Xi call, visit next / 10's 30's yields up / UK-US £150bn tech investment / INTL / 2% infl target no more ?
- Stéphan
- Sep 19
- 3 min read
2% inflation target was always arbitrary, why 2% ? why not 3% ? ..New Zealand started wiht the 2% target in the early 90's, other CB's followed, we are in 2025 (FED admitted 2% target achievable only by 2028, that would make it 7y outside the target..), things have changed, to the point the FED cut this week was more of a statement, not about monetary policy but more about a fiscal need, the next FED's additional mandate is to easy govt debt burden.. #shadowfed , thus over time the USDollar is on a weaker path, and technically DXY is on some 15year support, arguably '''breaking down''', weekly/monthly/quarterly confirmation required for 'next' secular move lower...next few months will be very interesting with Miran and Trump's next choice in Jan & eventually Powell in May 2026
Markets : Russia is starting to face major fuel shortages, BoE & BoJ unch, Norges cut, NVDA invest $5bn in Intel (good trade for Trump ! shrewd political move), 30's and 10's UST up 12bps or so after FED cut..(it will be hard to go and stay below 4%.....), German 30y yields highes since 2011, JGB's etc..39% of Fund Managers still have ZERO Gold (BoAML-chart available) >>> >>> a weaker USD big picture is positive emerging markets Eq (+global companies), miners, metals, commods etc, which is what has began to happen lately, the US end game will be MMT, QE, softer USD and YCC etc.. #shadowfed
Trade : China and the United States are reportedly in the “final stage” of negotiations for a state visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump, Denmark eyes Boeing P-8 aircraft for Arctic surveillance,
Geopolitics : Donald Trump says Afghanistan’s Bagram air base should be returned to US control’ (FT), Tony Blair’s US-backed proposal for ending the Gaza war and replacing Hamas, Poland’s border closure risks choking EU-China trade, China says “Latin America is no one's backyard” and has “the right to independently choose development path and cooperation partners.”
'$150bn of U.S. tech investments into the U.K. are floated and ‘UK set to announce closer co-operation with US on cryptocurrencies’ (FT), where “Chancellor Rachel Reeves hopes greater regulatory alignment will allow better access to America’s deep capital markets”
China's $19 trillion stock market, once called uninvestable... (remember...) lures foreigners again
US military have deployed a large force to the Caribbean in order to combat drug smuggling including 6 strike drones
Germany has shifted its stance and now supports expanding the use of frozen russian assets to finance Ukraine, Germany's Merz faces trouble over 'autumn of reform'
SCMP : Huawei bypasses Nvidia AI chips in computing breakthrough for China
The complex politics of EU military procurement....Didn't wan tUS kits, but suddenly realize that the alternatives are often worse...perhap smore expensive even... Denmark’s defence minister: “I would prefer that we collaborate with other NATO countries to get the most value for our money and to have a greater degree of flexibility – but if that proves impossible, I am also willing to accept that we will have to acquire this P-8 aircraft capacity ourselves.”
Global Markets Investor on X: "‼️The US is going through a COST OF LIVING CRISIS: US consumers' expectations for real income growth over the next 1-2 years dropped to the lowest level in HISTORY in September. Not even during the high-inflation period of the 1970s–1980s was the outlook this pessimistic. https://t.co/e2kXB4kZUc" / X
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