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SOFR 4.42% / Bayrou out as exp / 10's UST 4.05% / Citadel's Griffin on FED / U.S macro weak

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • Sep 9
  • 4 min read
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  • Markets : French Premier Bayrou resigns, no surprise there, lost confidence vote/see below, complicated negotiations coning!...The U.S economy is flashing warning signs from both jobs and inflation, shipments to the U.S plunged, SOFR 4.42% 'tight, sign of repo markets cash is harder to come by than FED suggest', SPX returns 'extremely' concentraded in Sep, some saying short-term risk is 'melt-up mode with cuts into inflation', which never ends well, when/how we shall see, Epstein files in the background too..!, 10's UST 4.05% lowest yields in 5months (slowdown, recession risk)

  • $7.4 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds, an all-time high = money that doesnt NOT want to take on #duration risk, and stays in cash

  • JPMORGAN WARNS OF FED RATE CUT PULLBACK JPMorgan’s trading desk warns the Fed’s expected September 17 rate cut could spark a “Sell the News” drop in US stocks. Despite the S&P 500’s 30% rebound since April, risks from inflation, weak jobs, tariffs, and seasonal September weakness remain. JPMorgan suggests hedging with VIX calls and adding gold, though history shows rate cuts outside recessions can still lift markets."

  • WSJ-Strongly worded critique of Trump's pressure on Fed by Citadel's CEO Ken Griffin

  • #macro U.S economy >>> labour stats in limbo land, economy seems paralysed wiht uncertainy/inaction, folks withdrawing cash frompensions, car market subprime loans on highs, no buying or selling of houses to speak of either...NY Fed consumer survey for August: "The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 pp to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013."

  • Trump targets the EU with tariff threat over tech penalties

  • Fixed minimum prices for solar in Switzerland under threat in EU deal

  • Saudi Aramco ends at its second lowest ever daily closing at 23.25 riyals (market cap of $1.499 trillion). Only during the worst of the pandemic and Saudi-Russia oil price war in Mar 2020, with Brent at ~$20, did Aramco close lower for a single day |

  • UK gilts, the BBC was doing some special disaster scenario chatters on gilts 10days ago..2nd september....not kidding....strangely enough BBC not talking about Gilts rallying hard since...well over 20bps down in yield terms..5.7% to 5.47% now...

  • Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?. The entire U.S. economy is being propped up by the promise of productivity gains that seem very far from materializing/TheAtlantic


French Premier Bayrou resigns, no surprise there, lost confidence vote

  1. Bayrou lost a confidence motion in parliament, forcing a third change in government in just over a year and reviving uncertainty over how the country can tackle its mounting debt burden.

  2. Parties across the political spectrum in France’s lower house joined forces Monday to overwhelmingly issue the rebuke to Bayrou, who called the motion in a failed attempt to rally support for his unpopular budget reforms. Just 194 lawmakers voted in support of the prime minister and 364 voted against.

  3. Macron will accept Bayrou’s resignation on Tuesday and name a new premier in the coming days, according to a statement from the president’s office. The new government will still have to find a way to pass a budget, an exercise that has now toppled the last two prime ministers.

  4. France is “drowning in a tide of debt,” Bayrou told lawmakers Monday ahead of the vote. “You have the power to bring down the government but you don’t have the power to erase reality.






The premise of AI—supposed superiority across the board—is challenged in side‑by‑side people‑versus‑machine tests, and in this case the machine lost.

On the other hand, evidence is piling up that AI is failing to deliver in the real world. The tech giants pouring the most money into AI are nowhere close to recouping their investments. Research suggests that the companies trying to incorporate AI have seen virtually no impact on their bottom line. And economists looking for evidence of AI-replaced job displacement have mostly come up empty.











Own GOLD..and other metals..





 
 
 

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