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Markets : #NVDA  it's a beat of course, but no less than -7- accounting tricks to achieve this ''manufactured beat''.., and Jensen says demand is “off the charts,” but the cash levels disagrees and so do higher inventories (Thread ), FED cut in Dec is 50/50, no consensus (probably what the FED wants..), BOJ board member suggests chance of December hike after yen drop, Oracle CDS still up nearly up to 2022 highs, even Scott Bessent days look limited now ! Japanese government bond yields surged to its highest since 1999, causing a surge in cost of borrowing. Disastrous for the highly indebted Japanese government #JPY #JGB, All this happened within one month of Takaichi taking office... Geo-politics : Trump Says He Will Meet With Mamdani Friday at the White House, The US signaled to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine must accept a US-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two people familiar with the matter said Trump signed legislation Wednesday that compels his administration to release files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, not before they are looked at.. Waiting for the Bondi and national security headlines on Epstein release to hit wires next...to make sure that many files cannot possibly be released..>>>> "Epstein had close ties to our own intelligence agency and Israel's intelligence agencies." - Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, even Larry Summers announced he was taking a leave from teaching at Harvard as President Trump signs a bill releasing the Epstein files U.S. Housing Market 53% of homes have lost value over the last year , the highest share of depreciation in 13 years - mind you it should be welcome to 'would be buyers'.. and The share of Americans unemployed for over 27 weeks reached 25.7%, the highest share since 2021, The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 20.7%, the highest level in history #MACRO Dinner with Mr Brexit : Bannon's European revolution, planned with Farage and backed by Epstein.. big if true John Major says Brexit was an act of collective folly. It made Britain poorer, weaker and cut off from the world’s biggest market Jensen Huang was upbeat. “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different,” he said, added he has ample Blackwell chips to meet demand. => stock up +6% after hours >>> "If Google were to make those TPUs commercially available at scale and reasonable price, Nvidia’s dominance would end, price wars would begin, and compute would become a commodity." The Coastal Journal on X: "Our $NVDA report is out now and we go over the 7 accounting tricks they use to “beat” earnings Link: https://t.co/zZS1a1WZUS " / X Also...something the bears to cling on to: inventories are up 32% quarter-over-quarter Markets rethink December rate cut amid Fed doubts Fed minutes: October 2025 A lot of back dated weak macro data likely to come out, so one would think markets will soon price full cut again.. BOJ board member suggests chance of December hike after yen drop - The Japan Times Russia's central bank says its operations with gold are increasing | Reuters Of course he does.. hardly anything UKR can agree too ? Ukraine updates: Trump approved peace deal, report says - Yahoo News UK Offhand remark, symbolic suit signal long winter for Japan-China ties | Reuters Trump signs bill to release Epstein files | AP News Dinner with Mr Brexit: Bannon’s European Revolution – Planned with Farage, Backed by Epstein – Byline Times Bitcoin and Gold increasingly seen by investors as better together – The Armchair Trader One Hyde Park flat sells at £26m loss - Spear's Gary Marcus on X: "Hot take on Gemini 3. Points 4 and 5 might literally change the world. Also, OpenAI is in trouble. • Great model, but it’s not AGI; has the same kind of problems all earlier models have had. Hallucinations and unreliability persist. • In short, scaling isn’t getting us to" / X Reform MS Laura Anne Jones suspended from Senedd over racial slur Liz Webster on X: "🚨 BREAKING: John Major says Brexit was an act of collective folly. It made Britain poorer, weaker and cut off from the world’s biggest market. He’s right and it’s exactly what the data, the job losses, the exodus of British citizens, the collapsing industries and the EU’s new https://t.co/BUqpjxfvkE " / X Check out their faces... unreal.. Molly Ploofkins on X: "“Will you release all the files within 30 days?” BONDI: “We’ll continue to follow the law.” “You said no addition investigation was warranted. What changed?” BONDI: “Information that has come.. Information. Um, there's new information. Additional information.” https://t.co/5aaM1zlcmK " / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🔴HOLY COW: The share of Americans unemployed for over 27 weeks reached 25.7%, the highest share since 2021. Excluding the 2020-2021 period, this is the highest share in 9 YEARS. This comes as 1.9 MILLION Americans have been unemployed for 27+ weeks, the most in 4 years. https://t.co/58tsuu32fR " / X

Trump thinks he knows choice for Fed Chair >> most likely Hassett >> tell : Gold, Silver rallied on the news yesterday House Speaker Mike Johnson says that releasing the Epstein files without redactions could pose a '''national security risk...'''''.... Markets : JGB yields reaching all time highs at 3.35% (margin costs, carry trade etc..warnings), Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.8%, the highest level in history, Home Depot's earnings a tell about housing market, Google boss warns 'no company is going to be immune' if AI bubble bursts , BOJ chief to meet finance, economy ministers as monetary policy, weak yen in focus, Trade : Aluminum is the next victim of Trump’s trade policy mistakes (thread), EU confirms it wants UK to pay into its budget in exchange for closer ties, Australia to mandate 3 hours of free electricity amid renewables glut, China suspends JPN food import Geopolitics : Axios : Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war Investors are holding one of the lowest proportions of cash in modern history: November BofA global fund manager survey. "Cash levels of 3.7% or lower has occurred 20 times since 2002, & on every occasion stocks fell and Treasuries outperformed in the following 1-3 months:" BofA Rothschild downgraded Amazon and Microsoft to neutral, arguing AI infrastructure requires six times the capital to generate the same economic value as the original cloud shift . For every $1 spent on AI infrastructure, the estimated net present value is just 20 cents, while mature traditional cloud investments generate roughly $1.40 for every dollar spent Trump Says He Thinks He Already Knows Choice for Fed Chair Hassett most likely, hence Gold and Silver rallied yesterday on the news.. Traders hedge against Fed cut even as odds of reduction diminish US secretly drafting Ukraine peace plan with Russian input EU confirms it wants UK to pay into its budget in exchange for closer ties | European Union | The Guardian UK (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September 2025, budget Wednesday next week Australia Mandating Three Hours a Day of Free Power for Australian Wage Gains Cement Case for Prolonged RBA Pause “National Security” Blocks Epstein Files Release Elon Musk attends Trump's dinner with Saudi crown prince | Reuters JP30Y: Japan 30 Year Treasury - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBC Chart - JGB yields reaching all time highs at 3.35% BOJ chief to meet finance, economy ministers as monetary policy, weak yen in focus By Reuters Oracle’s astonishing $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74bn Google boss says trillion-dollar AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality' Why Amazon and Microsoft's stocks could be in trouble due to AI's destructive economics | Morningstar Home Depot Q3 earnings show the state of U.S. housing market Blue Owl Capital: Stock Movements #shadowbanking mess - Blue Owl’s shares have led losses among private credit firms, losing 5.8% yesterday & 28% in the past 2 months. The firm has invested heavily in data centers, w/25% of its fund in real estate and digital infrastructure, and has limited some redemptions Gundlach sees one of the 'least healthy' stock markets of his career Alexander Stahel 🌻 on X: "Aluminum is the next victim of Trump’s trade policy mistakes. Trump set aluminum tariffs at 25% in Feb and doubled the rate in June in what he said is an effort to protect American industry. Consequently, US importers turned to domestic supplies to try and evade paying the https://t.co/mz78P941M7 " / X

Markets : BTC given up all of its 2025 gains, flat on ther year, down 30pct from highs, mind the gap sub -92K they say #sentiment broken , Japan's 20Y Government Bond Yield surges to 2.78%, the highest level in history, as the government prepares a $110 billion stimulus package, #AI #VALUATIONS !... #Amazon now with $15bn bond offering for AI xpansion , The Beat-and-Raise Machine Meets the Law of Big Numbers: Jensen Huang’s Playbook to Keep the Bubble Inflated (Thread, well worth a read) >>> markets beginning to break decent tech levels, underneth it all it's already broken, including crypto and BTC... bunker down... FXlalaland, pretty quiet,CROSSJPY's do look a little high, too high, let's see, precious metals unwinding of longs too on risk-off, await patiently for a decent dip in GOLD, Silver etc Geopolitics : 60 Minutes just dropped a bomb: Changpeng Zhao — a billionaire felon — got a presidential pardon months after his company enriched a Trump family crypto firm, UN Security Council approves Trump's Gaza plan Crypto market sheds $1.2tn as traders shun speculative assets. Bitcoin drops 28% in six weeks as worries over AI stocks spill into digital assets and high-octane bets backfire. (FT), Crypto Market Faces Turbulence as Major Tokens Sink and Liquidations Skyrocket Ahead of #NVDA earnigns tomorrow evening, please read : Kakashii on X: "The Beat-and-Raise Machine Meets the Law of Big Numbers: Jensen Huang’s Playbook to Keep the Bubble Inflated The recent moves and developments from Nvidia since its last earnings call in August are no coincidence. Every step has been carefully and sophisticatedly planned by https://t.co/THiW76H7I2 " / X Trump pardon of crypto billionaire sparks concerns over his use of the pardon power - CBS News Scott Bessent urges trust in China amid fresh trade deal doubts Bad Deal? Novartis, Roche – Pharma ab in die USA – Inside Paradeplatz Trump says he would sign bill releasing Epstein files if Congress passes it #LIQUIDITY squeeze Forget the AI Bubble: This Hidden Liquidity Squeeze Moved the Entire Market Bitcoin price hits lowest level in 6 months amid Fed jitters Crypto Market Faces Turbulence as Major Tokens Sink and Liquidations Skyrocket | The Currency analytics Regulate AI, before it's too late, or governments better have a plan, and a solid one... Rohan Paul on X: "AI will wipe out 50% of entry-level white collar roles in law, finance, and consulting in 5 years. Because a lot of what these white-collar workers do, AI models are already quite good at without intervention. Anthropic’s CEO. https://t.co/UfrcnwxN8d " / X Fed’s Waller backs another cut as job market nears ‘stall speed’ Oil Steadies as Geopolitical Risks Counter Russia Port Restart Middle East: UN Security Council approves Trump's Gaza plan - Yahoo News UK Amazon Launches $15 Billion Bond Offering to Fuel AI Expansion Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending Frenzy - WSJ This is why people have grown increasingly worried about the financing behind AI over the past few months: bond issuance has surged since September, and global financing of data centers is expected to balloon to almost $3 trillion just through 2028 CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock Down 30% Following Q3 Earnings and Guidance Cut - Blockonomi '''' they spending $310mio on interest expense against just $51.9 million in operating income, borrowing money to pay interest on previous loans. The AI data center company went public in March at $40 per share, peaked at $187 in June, and now trades around $75 while carrying $14 billion in debt''''

Markets : JPN Q3 GDP shrinks 1.8% and JGB yields up 3-4bps, as they plan $110bn stimulus package, NVDA reports on Wed, U.S NFP payrolls report in focus this week, ECB's Rehn 'mindful to downside risks to inflation', Thie's latest 13F shows a full bown exit from AI (NVDA), Swiss reach a deal with U.S (15% ok, expensive behind the scene for CH..and thanks for the Rolex), UK GDP reduced by 8%’ – Nine-year study reveals how Brexit decimated UK economy, Rise in Repo Rates matters to liquidity & collateral Values - in everything-FT ''New York FED convened meeting with Wall Street firms over key lending facility' ...more liquidity again?. ., #MSTR .. Crypto price plunge: What Eric Trump, Michael Saylor, and others are saying >>> markets yoyoing, frothy markets, the $3trn repo warning signs , JGB yields (more spending) ..all small warnings, big test for NVDA and the whole AI theme, from after the bell on Wednesday, CHF slightly stronger on US tariffs deal, JPY weaker, CHFJPY 195 - phew.. way way over PPP etc., and of course the Epstein files and emails saga, and a rep congresswoman opening linking Epstein, Israel and AIPAC influence on TV, Trump must be livid Janet Yellen says the United States is in danger of becoming a banana republic, well... Geopolitics : Bags of cash and a gold toilet: the corruption crisis engulfing Zelenskyy’s government, China warns chinese tourist going to Japan, Trump reveals Maduro 'would like to talk' as military options remain on the table for Venezuela Foreign investors return to China’s stock market. DeepSeek AI breakthrough spurs biggest overseas inflows in four years. (FT) Ex-Fed official to face ethics inquiry over stock trades UBS wound down O’Connor funds following First Brands collapse “Repo is all about trust,” said Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies. “If any borrower gets the reputation of being riskier, it creates this perverse incentive for all the lenders to pull back at once, even if it is not deserved . . . once you get the stink on you, it’s hard to recover,” he said China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism solemnly reminds Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan in the near future , and Chinese tourists already in Japan should pay close attention to the local security situation Marjorie Taylor Greene's Response To A CNN Host Calling Her Out For Sudden Outrage Over Trump's Attacks Is Going Viral - Yahoo News Canada Peter Thiel dumps top AI stock, stirring bubble fears - TheStreet Crypto price plunge: What Eric Trump, Michael Saylor, and others are saying [Video] UBS winds down O’Connor funds following First Brands collapse - Hedgeweek Trump reveals Maduro 'would like to talk' as military options remain on the table for Venezuela Japan’s Q3 GDP shrinks 1.8%. Tariffs hit exports, contraction milder than expected - recap | investingLive StockMarket.News on X: "Japan is considering a $110 billion stimulus package and that's the reason bond yields are spiking right now. Japan already has insane debt at over 230% of GDP. When you're already drowning in that much debt announcing more spending without raising taxes or cutting anything else" / X Samantha LaDuc on X: "Trump promised he would … cut spending ❌ lower inflation ❌ end Russia-Ukraine war ❌ not enter foreign wars ❌ pass voter ID laws ❌ release Epstein files ❌ drain the swamp ❌ …. put America first ❌ Instead he has: alienated trading partners ❎ hurt US economy & jobs ❎" / X Switzerland agrees new tariff deal with USA Not all that Swisstastic.. 'GDP reduced by 8%' - Nine-year study reveals how Brexit decimated UK economy Former Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler violated ethics rules with stock trades Human rights law overhaul planned as part of Mahmood’s sweeping asylum reforms | The Standard Zelensky’s Ukraine corruption crisis includes bags of cash and a gold toilet Spot Gold Edges Higher After Two Days of Heavy Losses Polestar Announces Plan to Implement ADS Ratio Change From 1:1 to 1:30 Ordinary Shares Palantir CEO Alex Karp lashes out at 'parasitic' critics Switzerland to raise maximum civil defence age to 40 - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland to raise maximum civil defence age to 40 - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss Gruyère crowned world’s best cheese - SWI swissinfo.ch BullionStar on X: "China’s secretive gold purchases help fuel record rally China's reported gold purchases: 25 tonnes YTD. Analyst estimates: 250+ tonnes. World's largest accumulator buying 10x reported amounts. Only 33% of central bank demand now disclosed (down from 90% four years ago)." / X

AI related concerns growing, things we talked about lately, circular financing, increasing debt financing for CAPEX, EPS bar too high, strched valuations, OpenAI 'backstop' etc, and NOW Antropic talks about first documented 'AI led espionage campaign'... make it stop, regulate it before it's too late.. Markets : WH not going to publish last month's job report (got to avoid negative stuff at all costs ), big job cuts Verizon (15% of workforce..), 3 diff FED folks 'concerned about inflation', FED saying a lot more leverage under the hood than people realize/Thread, #BTC sub <100K, #MSTR is BELOW 1 NAV...''margin call coming.. or yet more debt ?...''..., China registers worst Investment decline in years as slowdown continues, Oracle debt splurge (huge AI bet going wrong) and now cash flow problem.. , Crude's 3rd weekly loss on supply glut worries, >>> '' If you were crowing about your stocks being up 200-400% Y/Y a few weeks ago, but are now wondering why they are suddenly down 30-50% (with the market 2% off its ATH)…you might want to read-up on beta....GS.. #AI #datacenter #space #Quantum #techs #momo stocks... very decent sell-off it has to be said.., OpenAI backstop story...good times... was such a great #redflag #CREDIT now nothing too dramatic, yet anyway watch those #CDS ... endless debt to finance Govt spending and AI capex craze being questioned.. #ORACLE #COREWAEVE etc.. Trade : Donald Trump is preparing substantial tariff cuts for Latin American countries to address high food prices at home, eying lower US levies and barriers for groceries including beef, bananas and coffee Geopolitics : Urgent need for quick distraction from Epstein files, Trump briefed on plans to attack Venezuela The bosses of rival chip giants Nvidia and AMD are cousins #NVDA #AMD Sam Altman suggested that OpenAI could reach $100B in revenue by 2027. Anthropic reportedly forecasted $70 billion in revenue by 2028. Satya reacts to these projections Germany is reinstating mandatory conscription : all 18-year-old men are required to report for military examination. If there are not enough volunteers, a lottery will decide who is drafted, reports BILD Tech bonds are getting hit hard of late as debt traders start wondering if they're getting left with the bill for the stock market's enthusiasm. Oracle's $3.5 billion of 30-year debt issued in September has cratered by 8% from the October peak Starmer and Reeves ditch Budget plan to raise income tax rates (FT) The Epstein Emails also Expose Musk, Thiel, and Vance, who else is mentioned? The podcast that started to really question the AI craze.. posted last week but it's worth having it again... Brad Gerstner ... & Altman .. WallStreetPro on X: "🚨 Brad Gerstner, an OpenAI investor, asks Sam Altman how a company with $13B in revenue can afford $1.4T in commitments. Altman’s reply? “Happy to find a buyer for your shares.” Translation: No answer. Very concerning. 🚩 https://t.co/9jJKGw9QbF " / X WAKE UP !...AI HAS to be regulated..the sooner the better.. Anthropic on X: "We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale AI cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention. It has significant implications for cybersecurity in the age of AI agents. Read more: https://t.co/VxqERnPQRJ " / X Who Else Was Mentioned in the Latest Epstein Files | TIME Trump Readies Tariff Cuts, Trade Deals in Affordability Push - SWI swissinfo.ch So, if Bessent says they are doing trade deals to lower inflation, by default they accept that tariffs were inflationary and not good for consumers... Bitcoin (BTC) News: $869M Outflow Hits Spot ETFs Oil Set For Third Weekly Loss On Supply Glut Worries China Registers Worst Investment Decline in Years as Slowdown Continues Samantha LaDuc on X: "BAAHAAHAAA Bissent is so full of BS! About that CPI... look what the Trump Admin REMOVED from the basket that comprises the Consumer Price Index: ELECTRICITY AND NAT GAS COSTS!! Biden Admin did it too, but just stop lying to US. Stop the gaslighting! https://t.co/pzfWrw2tEC " / X New York Fed on X: "Hedge funds often augment their investment positions using leverage. The leverage sources can be divided into three categories: prime brokerage, repo, and other secured borrowing. Prime brokerage and repo borrowing have increased rapidly over the past few years, as shown in this https://t.co/Ru0skox1Ks " / X >>>> FED saying there is a LOT more leverage under the hood than people realize Fannie Mae Ending Its Hard 620 Score Cutoff – NMP Chip Giant Nvidia's Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su Are Cousins - Business Insider Rihard Jarc on X: "$MSFT's Satya is indirectly answering the question about the usefulness of the life of GPUs. $NVDA has gone to a 1-year product cycle in 2024, now he doesn't want to overbuy one generation...IMO, everyone will come to this conclusion sooner or later. https://t.co/5mbpoYO6gX " / X Rachel Reeves scraps plans for income tax hike US Government Shutdown Final Stats: was it worth it ?? 1. 5 million airline passengers delayed or cancelled 2. $619 billion in new federal debt 3. Federal statistical system "permanently damaged" 4. October jobs & inflation data may never be released 5. 43 days of economic data currently delayed 6. 750,000 federal workers furloughed The current funding bill only reopens the government through January 30th.... see you then for round two... more debt, keep it going....

EU Prepares New Plan to Implement Trade Agreement With US, other deals coming, see Bessent below.. Markets : Markets like the idea of lower rates and a narrow economy. Shedding labor so corporates can boost margins via automation means shareholders over workers, Wall Street over Main Street, It’s not exactly a Goldilocks setup for the lower end of the K, but it’s close to perfection from the SPX’s point of view (so long as job cuts don’t turn into a growth scare/GS ...says it all really.. >>> Silver right back to the highs, rest of precious metals joining in, commodities, rare earth etc shoudl follow/continue too, FXland USD and JPY softer, risk-on scenario / plenty of liquidities Boston Fed President Collins advocates holding rates steady, Bostic to retire in February adding that inflation remains the bigger risk to the economy and that he favors keeping rates steady. Susan Collins also said she supports holding rates to cool inflation Japan prime minister 'strongly hopes' BOJ achieves wage-driven inflation Plan for a united Ireland to avoid Brexit-style mess, says author from unionist background Morgan Stanley sees up to 20% shortage of US power for data centers through 2028 Anthropic will invest $50 billion to build data centers for AI in locations including Texas and New York. Meta confirmed that it will build a $1 billion data center in Wisconsin New Epstein emails referring to Trump, WH accuses Democrats of cherry-picking messages, Republicans release a cache of more than 20,000 pages, this story is not going away Epstein latest: Vote to release all unclassified files looms - after thousands shared | US News | Sky News Republicans against Trump on X: "After months of insisting tariffs don’t raise prices, Scott Bessent now says the Trump administration will cut tariffs to bring prices down. “You’re going to see substantial tariff announcements over the next couple of days in terms of things we don’t grow here, coffee being one https://t.co/wm3pEYAGKB " / X Trump ends government shutdown, signs funding bill EU Prepares New Plan to Implement Trade Agreement With US Politics latest: Starmer's chief of staff under pressure - Miliband says PM will sack leadership briefer | Politics News | Sky News Japan prime minister 'strongly hopes' BOJ achieves wage-driven inflation - CNA BoJ Seeks Steady Inflation Growth Supported by Wage Gains: Governor Ueda Boston Fed President Collins advocates holding rates steady, sees 'high bar' for further cuts BullionStar on X: "In case you missed it: Silver officially added to US Critical Minerals list. Out of 60 critical minerals deemed vital to economy and national security, silver now joins platinum, palladium, lithium, and other strategic materials. This classification isn't symbolic. It https://t.co/HiMAYnmVFB " / X One Ticker, 55 Silver Miners: The SILJ Trade Setting Up Right Now Morgan Stanley sees up to 20% shortage of US power for data centers through 2028 By Investing.com Universal credit claimants soar by over a million in a year, new figures show | Politics News | Sky News Plan for a united Ireland to avoid Brexit-style mess, says author from unionist background – The Irish Times Anthropic is spending $50B to build data centers in US Trump jokes, laughs with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at White House but US embassy wants to 'STOP THIS TERRORIST' Ron Filipkowski on X: "Some bizarre stuff going down in the Oval these days. After spraying the Syrian president with his Trump Fragrance he then asks him how many wives he has. https://t.co/S0ywlUy7Fz " / X Ukraine-Russia war latest: Moscow’s sanction-hit Lukoil faces assets sell-off while fighting heats up in Pokrovsk | The Independent Venezuela launches huge military exercise as U.S. Navy draws near

SoftBank announced that it has sold its entire stake in Nvidia, for $5.8bn Markets : The U.S. data drought is nearly over (market didn't miss them, Equity on all time highs, no price discovery anymore, pure euphoria..), Softbank cashed in on NVDA, Oracle downgraded, META fionancing questioned, Altman's had touhg time to explain -1.4trn commitment, Corewave drops 20pct, none of it seems to matter right now, ALL ABOUT flush of liquidities...,FED i sincreasingly torn over Dec rate cut (WSJ), U.S. shutdown nears end as Senate passes deal, House readies vote, China claims U.S confiscated $13bn in 'stolen' BTC' >>> newh highs is all the rage (momentum, euphoria, liquidities!), USDJPY/CROSSJPY's in FX higher with it, precious metals roaring, XAGUSD suddenly markets realized its usefulness !! .....BTC struggles relative to precious metals still Geopolitics : Japan lawmakers eye firm response to Chinese envoy's threat to behead PM, Lavrov 'ready' to try to meet Rubio after recetn rift, Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in Gaza since ceasefire, U.S's largest warship arrives neaar Venezuela #XAGUSD Nuclear plants are Silver DEVOURERS / Thread J PMorgan says the next five years could require $5T to $7T in total investment. About $1.5T may come from investment-grade bonds, plus $150B from leveraged finance and up to $40B a year in data-center securitizations. Even then, there’s still roughly a $1.4T funding gap likely filled by private credit and governments UK : While 60% of Britons say they support net zero, the majority say the cost of living is a greater priority than reducing carbon emissions >>> Starmer will fight attemps to reaplce him, allies say..they should focus on governing and having a mission and a big transformative budget..! anyhow, there are NO real successor .. Ministers agree to postpone EU ETS2 to 2028 Natural Gas getting for highest closing price since 2022 The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut Government shutdown nears possible end as key House panel advances Senate-passed funding bill The AI bubble: Is Nvidia artificially engineering chip demand? AI bubble vs backbone How Asia may be an AI value play | Saxo China Claims U.S. Confiscated $13B in ’Stolen’ Bitcoin – Geopolitical Crypto Clash Escalates Trump expected to dine with Wall Street CEOs at White House on Wednesday | Reuters Ukraine war latest: Lavrov 'ready' to meet Rubio after reported breakdown in communication and rift with Putin | World News | Sky News Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in Gaza since ceasefire Venezuela Orders Military Mobilization As US Aircraft Carriers Near Its Coast - i24NEWS AI’s $5 Trillion Data-Center Boom Will Dip Into Every Debt Market, JPMorgan Says Oil Pushes Higher as Fuel Strength Offsets Weak Crude Signals – Asset News 4U Trump’s 50-year mortgage plan is getting panned. Allies blame this man. - POLITICO Indeed, make zero sense! Edinburgh hit by 250% rise in homeless refugee applications from outside Scotland - Daily Record virtue signalling has real consequences SoftBank cashes out $5.8bn Nvidia stake to fund OpenAI bet Nvidia supplier Foxconn third-quarter profit beats expectations, rising 17% on AI demand Wendy's to close hundreds of US stores in bid to halt falling profit ETS2 delay to 2028: EU ministers approve postponement The Council meeting outcome had little impact on ETS1 prices today. This suggests the result was largely in line with expectations. It could even reflect relief that the member states were able to decide on a 2040 target at all Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say UK government better listen to folks, before their bud budget at the end of the month YouGov on X: "While 60% of Britons say they support net zero, the majority say the cost of living is a greater priority than reducing carbon emissions Among net zero supporters Cost of living is priority: 56% Cutting carbon is priority: 33% Among all Britons Cost of living is priority: 68% https://t.co/y4dFZeYM7R " / X Mark on X: "Silver Expert J. Staiger Reveals a NUCLEAR Silver Secret🏭 Nuclear Plants Are Silver DEVOURERS: ✅ Each large reactor (1600-1800 MW) requires 3-5 MILLION ounces ✅ Silver control rods are irreplaceable - they regulate nuclear reactions ✅ "No button-press magic here" - these https://t.co/O7xesyTUfn " / X Japan lawmakers eye firm response to Chinese envoy's threat to behead PM - The Japan Times UBS Private Banker: Jedes Telefon wird aufgezeichnet – Inside Paradeplatz The CIA ‘Can Neither Confirm Nor Deny’ It Has Documents on Satoshi Nakamoto

Markets : Goldilocks scenarios returned  to Wall Street as the spectre of deeper disruptions from the government shutdown started to clear, bypartisan deal (more debt) , l ower interest rates (SOFR drop in 10days pretty impressive, ALL about liquidities) , Oz consumer conf way up, Data Centers in Nvidia’s hometown stand empty awaiting power, Michael Burry and few others talks a lot about 'AI overstated earnings' thus hiding future losses etc (Thread), Scott Galloway said he suspects many of these deals are “jazz hands,” an expression for a lot of flash to disguise a lack of substance, or all sizzle and no steak etc, another ''NVIDIA is literally subsidizing / “paying” customers to buy their hardware - and Wall Street is treating it as revenue'' >>> bottom line 'when' the music stops, it 'will be a spectacular fall-out and reset, I'm waiting, usual FX risk on reaction, CROSSJPY, USDJPY higher, equity markets right back to highs, let's see of this 'Senate deal' is not a ''buy the rumour and sell the fact'', no-one will get $2000 check in the post.. don't count on it, GOLD, precious metals, easily back up #monetization !.. Trade : Trump tacos' on Swiss tariffs, same old same old, a lot of shouting, threats and eventuel TACO action Geopolitics : Israel and Iran on the brink of a new war — The New York Times, Fed's Miran said 50 bp cut appropriate for December and 25 bp cut at a minimum Shock COP Dirty Secret: at least half the Balsa Wood in wind turbine blades is illegally logged in Amazonian rainforests #windpower Warren Buffett will stop writing the firm’s annual letters and speaking at its meetings, going quiet ! Switzerland is said to be close to securing an improved 15% tariff on its exports to the US. Levies on Indian goods will be lowered “at some point,” Trump said. And China plans to fast track approvals of rare earths to US companies with no military ties Is THIS time actually different ? AI potential bubble, this is well explained, NVDIA is literally subsidizing / paying customers to buy their hardware and WS is treating is as revenue.. is this sustainable, or even profitable long-term ? 15   minutes video, well worth a watch imho: It's Happening Again and Nobody’s Talking About It OR is it nowhere near the top,  sustained compute scarcity and pricing power still driving Scott Galloway warns of ‘nowhere to hide’ in markets if the OpenAI story unravels The big short is trying to prick this bubble.. not going to be easy, but fair to say 'earnings fraud' has been mentioned in few places, last few months, that all said, as we saw last few days... it's hard too hard for the bears, ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITIES, SOFR...    ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry exposes big tech’s ‘common frauds of the modern era’ A $2,000 check from Trump tariffs? Don't count on it Wall Street Journal dismisses Trump $2K dividend idea: ‘Hail Mary pass’ Trump backs Senate deal that would end government shutdown Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed ALL about liquidities.. US Airlines Cancel 2,100 Flights as Shutdown Talks Advance Australia’s consumer sentiment soars 12.8% on economic outlook - The Business Times Gold and silver break higher as US debt concerns eclipse shutdown relief | Saxo Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power Meanwhile, rest of the world gets richer and richer, have you ordered yours ? FLIBS 2025 review: Industry reports indicate "massive demand for yachts above 60 metres" Another Israel-Iran war increasingly seen as just a matter of time, NYT reports | The Times of Israel Warren Buffett Will No Longer Write Annual Letter, Speak At Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting | The WealthAdvisor Shock COP Dirty Secret: At Least Half the Balsa Wood in Wind Turbine Blades is Illegally Logged in Amazonian Rainforests – The Daily Sceptic And this - pure madness -lies Drax still burning 250-year-old trees sourced from forests in Canada, experts say | Drax | The Guardian Merryn Talks Money - Podcast - Apple Podcasts AI bubble? Well of course it is. Today's market is all about the story. One day it will be about the price again.. so dance near the door and hang on to gold - nice podcast for a car jouney

A deal on no real concession from Reps and DEMs cave in on Obamacare deal.. Markets : markets loving it, rally mood since Friday rumours of a deal reopening U.S Govt, crude steadies, NVDA isn't going back to China, Copper is set for a historic shortage next year >>> Trump WANTED the shut down untill Rep lost ground in Tuesday's elections last week, polls plummeted, news of food lines grew fast, suddenly military uniforms flanked food banks...he lost and its pretty clear ...and classic Trump, all of a sudden , the shut down ends with NO consessions...and DEM's sell out as no Obamacare deal in sight either Bernie Sanders: "What this Senate is about to do is make a horrific situation even worse. So let's be clear what this vote is about. If this vote succeeds, over 20 million Americans are gonna see at least a doubling in their premiums in the ACA, so so the rich can get a trillion-dollar tax cut" Geopolitics : Putin answers Maduro’s call to help Venezuela resist Trump, Ukraine war latest: Russia launches 'one of the largest' attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since start of war, Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns. John Williams suggests poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates next month. (FT) Ray Dalio argues we already #monetisation, fiscal deficits + debt + central bank backstoppin issuance / Thread Trump administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage to boost housing affordability >>> NOT that attractive at all !....the longer the duration, the more it is like renting and you landlord is the bank, worse you are left wiht all the running costs..! >>> It's a trillion-dollar bailout for Wall Street dressed up as a tax cut Iran faces 'permanent state of crisis' as time wanes and sanction pressure grows We now live in a society where more debt is the “solution” to everything Swiss finance shrinks as regulators tighten grip on prized sector. Stricter post-Credit Suisse oversight sets nation on different path to US in particular. (FT) Oil Steadies As Traders Weigh Up Surplus Concerns And Sanctions Senate returns to work as government shutdown nears longest in US history over Obamacare fight Trump administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage to boost housing affordability US after 40 days of shutdown: Flight uncertainty rises, supply woes deepens and political costs escalate – Firstpost Trump Booed at NFL Game After Demanding Stadium Is Named In His Honor Hungry in Uniform: the untold struggle of military food insecurity Flight cancellations stack up as FAA throttling begins Ray Dalio on X: "Stimulating Into a Bubble " / X Iran faces 'permanent state of crisis' as time wanes and sanction pressure grows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "We now live in a society where more debt is the “solution” to everything: Can’t afford basic necessities? Take on more debt. Can’t pay your tuition? Take on more debt. Can’t afford to buy a home? Take on more debt. Can’t keep inflation under control? Take on more debt. Can’t" / X Nvidia won't sell Blackwell AI chips to China, CEO Jensen Huang says What a shamble they have been Top BBC bosses step down following criticism of edited Trump speech Lloyds Bank aims to be UK’s biggest private landlord by 2025 They all as bad as each other by the look of thigns Reform leader branded “captain chaos” as Kent fire authority in disarray | Fire Brigades Union Coop overtakes Migros in battle of Swiss food retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Copper is set for a historic shortage next year: The copper market is expected to face its most severe deficit in 22 years in 2026, at -590,000 tons, according to Morgan Stanley. The deficit is expected to widen by 2029 to a whopping -1.1 million tons. This comes as global https://t.co/j8CZ7Fb4qe " / X Putin answers Maduro’s call to help Venezuela resist Trump Ukraine war latest: Russia launches 'one of the largest' attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since start of war Israel confirms remains returned are officer Goldin killed in 2014 Gaza war

The AI run has been so strong that investors have become hypersensitive to ANY volatility - beware #VIX #NDX #time-fora-hedging-trade Markets : BoE kept rates steady at 4% (5-4 split), U.S Job cuts in October hit highest level in decades (-153K-this is very weak.. ), Americans are drowning in debt (Thread), FAA mandated cuts start today effecting up to 1,800 flights, New House Prices have dropped below Existing Homes for the first time in history : ''when builders blink first''. .(chart availlable), Goldman Sachs warns: 300 million jobs to be lost to AI , US govt shut down (day 37), Supreme court ruling could force US to repay $1trn - eventually, Jensen saying china to beat US on AI.. >>> a LOT of pretty real negative stuff this week....unwind of owned, crowded positions going on underneath, momo stocks, thematic themes hit hard, appears to be calm on the surface (main indices), but some pretty punchy sell-off's in single stocks, which don't look like a soft landing.. Geopolitics : Lavrov falls out of favour with Putin after failed Trump meeting, French MPs vote to cancel a tax that brings 5.4bn a year - except that's not what they wanted to do (shocking..) Trade : Trump for the first time acknowledged that the tariffs are costing the US Consumer -blimey MAGA is over Sam Altman in 2023: “It’s hopeless to compete with us..... .” OpenAI in 2025: We’d like a government loan guarantee, please (parly denied..but) >>>> “OpenAI is a nonprofit that now wants a federal backstop guarantee for all new capex investments but also wants to IPO at $1Tn next year for its exclusive shareholders”....any anyone wonders why folks may shift to the left..he denied the need for support - see below, but in reality Altman said "Yeah, I'm making billions building up a bubble, but that's okay, because when it bursts, the American taxpayers will bail me out, so I can keep making more billions."... up to you voters.. The Real Battle isn’t cver Tariffs tt’s over control/Thread Secret GOP Cabal With Vance and Thiel Plots Eternal MAGA Rule Ray Dalio : When the Bill Comes Due: Debt, Denial, and the Fall of Empires >> History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods Trump to the Novo Nordisk CEO: "Maybe you should give us a piece of the company like I've been asking for."..grifters.. Job cuts in October hit highest level in decades, report shows https://x.com/PolemicTMM/status/1986380274511327449      this is an excellent recap of the parallels between 2008 vs today - highly recommend spending few minutes on it, facts, and backed-up by press articles...NVDA reports on 19th Nov, maybe mr market waits till then to make up its mind.. Goldman Sachs warns: 300 million jobs to be lost to AI Altman's mea culpa - what a bizarre clown show Sam Altman on X: "I would like to clarify a few things. First, the obvious one: we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters. We believe that governments should not pick winners or losers, and that taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad business decisions or" / X Trump, in shift, acknowledges Americans are paying "something" for tariffs | Reuters FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown Elon Musk could become world's first trillionaire after Tesla pay deal: Here's how Beyond ridiculous world Huge "confusion" in the Assembly: deputies vote on an amendment on the abolition of a tax that brings in 5.4 billion euros per year (but which was not supposed to pass) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The U.S. Now Has: 1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt 2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans 5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10" / X Secret GOP Cabal With Vance and Thiel Plots Eternal MAGA Rule Lavrov falls out of favour with Putin after failed Trump meeting Still could be wild... Supreme court decison, contested and so on Donald Trump enters his lame duck era - POLITICO True ponzi like... (leverage the balancesheet on 1 asset) Metaplanet Borrows $100 Million Against Its Bitcoin Holdings—To Buy More BTC - Decrypt >>>>> So Metaplanet owns like 31K BTC at about 108K average..underwater by 5%..most risk managers would say reduce risk, nope, lets raise $100mio in new debt and buy soemmore.. >>> if bitcoin treasuries get wrecked on a 5% move, what happens if we go down 25% ?... I mean.... StockMarket.News on X: "Sam Altman in 2023: “It’s hopeless to compete with us.” OpenAI in 2025: We’d like a government loan guarantee, please. https://t.co/dIPl9sJWv6 " / X EndGame Macro on X: "The Real Battle Isn’t Over Tariffs It’s Over Control If Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal, the real danger is losing speed and leverage in a world where both matter. Tariffs under emergency powers (like IEEPA) give the president the ability to hit fast, send a signal, and shift" / X Tech giants warn Reeves of IPO 'flight risk' over budget | Money News | Sky News Ray Dalio on X: "Stimulating Into a Bubble " / X History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources 5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

Yesterday's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize/Thread, AND when big private companies (OpenAI) start asking for public funds to guaranty its debt, its a clear sign that this bubble will soon POP. .. and so of course Jensen Huang had to say this... 'China is going to win the AI Race,' FT Reports >>> this surely can't happen, the US surely cannot guaranty OpenAI's debt....i mean surely not... Markets : A new jobs report shows modest growth — but with white-collar layoffs accelerating, AI bubble concerns grow (either way - the outcome of the concerbes are huge..can't ignore 'a sudden shift in sentiment-momentum..), Brazil’s central bank held its key interest rate unchanged at 15% for a third meeting as expected, markets look tired >>> AI bubble warnings signs growing, if/when it pops it'll be big, sell NDX rallies to hedge some, FX hardly interested (for choice, sell some crossjpy's), buy some VIX as another potential hedge into year-end Trade : Opponents of Trump's tariffs had a good day at the Supreme Court Geopolitics : GOP lawmakers rally behind Trump's Venezuela strikes as critics question legality Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers . It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers Per Apollo: Earnings expectations have increased for the Magnificent Seven and declined for every other company in S&P 493! “Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Tuesday he could be forced to close some of the national airspace if the shutdown extends another week ... Freightwaves CEO: We should be worried. Certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. Year-over-year trucking volumes is down 17%. When you look at the industrial sectors, we're down 30% year-over-year, which is Great Financial Crisis levels of concern Andy Constan on X: "Assuming 10 year debt and 150bp of lower financing a 1tn bond guarantee would be worth 12% of proceeds. Or 120BN On a 1TN equity market valuation that would be a 12% stake in the company. As a tax payer I would be happy to guarantee OpenAI debt of 1TN for a free stake of 12% https://t.co/EpL66ICnia " / X This IS nuts ! these guys, Musk, Karp, Thiel..etc want total control, dominate the world, politics, you name it, AND now want US government backing... US orders 10% flights cut at major US airports due to shutdown | Reuters Trump tariff opponents had a good day at the Supreme Court Stock market selloff goes global as AI bubble concerns grow ADP report shows jobs growth as white-collar layoffs accelerate Lisa Abramowicz: Deutsche Bank examines AI stock hedging strategies Trump Says He Met Swiss Leaders, Orders More Trade Talks - SWI swissinfo.ch GOP lawmakers rally behind Trump's Venezuela strikes as critics question legality quel shitt show Crime network behind UK mini-marts is enabling migrants to work illegally If that's ok, and clearly it is so, then reverse Brexit - simple Keir Starmer issues Budget warning - Brexit and austerity impact 'worse than feared' - The Mirror McDonald's earnings show low-income customers struggling Jake Sherman on X: "HERE is what trump just told senate republicans about last night. Trump thinks last night was bad for republicans and thinks the government has to open “immediately.” And he seems to believes the bad election results are directly related to the now 36-day shutdown. https://t.co/5YU9ngUgla " / X >>> Trump can lie about many things, in fact just about everything from Epstein to tariffs, or crypto grift, govt shutdown, you name it, he's got ocntrol ish on this, but he cannot lie toamericans about inflation 'falling'.... pretty sure they don't see it day to day this way.. The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Today's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize: If Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, the US Treasury will face a MASSIVE refund liability. This potential liability is expected to be up to $1 TRILLION to importers. Why? Because, if the Supreme Court" / X

#MSFT Satya just told you the entire AI trade thesis is wrong and nobody is repricing anything.... Microsoft has racks of H100s collecting dust because they literally cannot plug them in. Not "won't," cannot..., The AI Chip Market — Demand and Supply, fully controlled by NVIDIA / Thread, Atlman said 'enough' to questions about revenues .., and now PLTR's Karp having a go at short sellers ..his company is possibly the most overvalued of all times on 350 P/E or something, Rigetti CEO comments below.., KOSPI chopped.. >>>> ''all worrying signs for the bulls, ''when the music stops in a crowded market'' Markets :   The total value of the US stock market is now ~245% of the country’s GDP – far above the 100% level that Warren Buffett considers a sign of a market bubble, Trump says SNAP benefits will only be given when the US government is reopened, "and not before." Over 40 million Americans rely on SNAP with $8.2 BILLION per month in benefits now frozen. >>> #liquidity scarcity, higher USD, crowded ''short $$ trade'' squeezing and hurting... as margin calls increase, banking stress, collateral vs liquidity shortage in REPO (chart available - please ask), Mamdani wins, another headache for Trump, Softbank suddenly down 20% in a couple of days, crypto having a pretty bad time too..owned positions, momo stocks, thematic stories (quantum etc) a decent liquidation mode.. Trade : EU leaders skip Latin Amrican summit to avoid upsetting Trump!, All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility/Thread Scott Bessent is now making the case why NYC will receive less funding if Mamdani is elected because, according to him, the state will lose people to red states Bitcoin officially enters bear market territory, now down -20% since its record high seen on October 6th, Ether falls below $3,400 and officially erases all 2025 gains TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: The Democrats are far more likely to win the Midterms, and the next Presidential Election, if we don’t do the Termination of the Filibuster (The Nuclear Option!), because it will be impossible for Republicans to get Common Sense Policies done with these Crazed Democrat Lunatics being able to block everything by withholding their votes. FOR THREE YEARS, NOTHING WILL BE PASSED, AND REPUBLICANS WILL BE BLAMED. Elections, including the Midterms, will be rightfully brutal. If we do terminate the Filibuster, we will get EVERYTHING approved, like no Congress in History. We will have FAIR, FREE, and SAFE Elections, No Men in Women’s Sports or Transgender for Everybody, Strong Borders, Major Tax and Energy Cuts, and will secure our Second Amendment, which the Democrats will also terminate, IMMEDIATELY. Zohran Mamdani wins NYC mayoral race - POLITICO This is so weak from Europe... hard to beleive... Top EU Leaders Skip EU-Latin American Summit in Colombia to Avoid Irking Trump - Bloomberg Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley CEOs predict big stock market correction The government shutdown is about to make travel a nightmare, Duffy warns Alex Karp slams short-seller bets against Palantir as 'egregious': 'I am going to be dancing around when it's proven wrong' Quantum computing & AI will be key themes of 2026: Rigetti CEO CEO is openly saying there will be no meaningful commercial revenue for the better part of a decade >>>>> The reason the CEO can be honest is he sold all of his shares back in May!... beware !! Sam Altman says ‘enough’ to questions about OpenAI’s revenue | TechCrunch U.S. utilities spend big as AI boom drives power demand higher Norway wealth fund to oppose Musk's $1 trillion Tesla pay deal | Reuters Kakashii on X: "The AI Chip Market — Demand and Supply, Fully Controlled by NVIDIA Few really understand this, but let me break down in one post, how the whole demand and supply cycle works when both are controlled by one company: NVIDIA. Jensen knows exactly what Wall Street expects from him https://t.co/hIH8BP78YS " / X Aakash Gupta on X: "Satya just told you the entire AI trade thesis is wrong and nobody is repricing anything. Microsoft has racks of H100s collecting dust because they literally cannot plug them in. Not "won't," cannot. The power infrastructure does not exist. Which means every analyst model that's" / X UBS Warns of Systemic Risk From Weak US Insurance Regulation (1) Rise in Repo Rates Matters to Liquidity & Collateral Values - In Everything Exposed: How Bill Gates' Connections to Pedophile Jeffrey Epstein Landed Tech Billionaire at the Center of a Deep State Cover-up Conspiracy Theory Involving Sick Pedo Lyn Alden on X: "All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility. Both times, a rapid TGA refill was a big catalyst. I have an explainer thread on the 2019 repo spike below, from back when it was happening. https://t.co/F9oy9xu98x " / X