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Iran war update : It's all happening in Islamabad this week-end !.. . NATO Sec. Gen. Rutte briefed capitals that Trump wants concrete commitments within the next few days for help securing the Strait of Hormuz - diplomats, Israel secretly approves record West Bank illegal settlement, Trump threatened Iran for charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz, saying “they better stop now!” after earlier expressing optimism about a deal. Meanwhile, signs of activity are emerging, with two Japanese tankers heading toward the strait. (BBG), |  Israel will hold direct talks with Lebanon next week, but Benjamin Netanyahu said strikes on Hezbollah targets will continue >> the strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, ahead of weekend talks in Islamabad, going to be quite intense few days!... Markets : “Private Markets’ Software Pain is about to get a lot worse-BBG'', ECB's Sleijpen: ECB will act if needed to keep inflation at target, BOJ is likely to raise interest rate in April, ex-official says, sticky U.S inflation, jobless claims are rising, personal income falling, economy slowing (less than ideal..! and the wars..), Goldman Sachs blames a future of potentially higher stock market volatility on AI (you bet..) >>> Eq markets have almost recovered as if a deal with Iran is nearly done... seems rather premature (as much as we hope so..), might be worth putting a few small few hedges on! FX pretty zz's as bonds moving in tandem, BoJ meeting in in sight in April, FED nomination coming, but not next week by the sound of things US GDP growth falls from 4.4% to 0.5% in Q4 2025 , well below the initially exp+2.8% Japan is considering releasing additional amount of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve (equal to about 20 days of imports) Zelensky officially confirms Ukrainian Special Operations forces are actively deployed in the Middle East and the Gulf! CHINA: "The US is a war addict Throughout its over 240-year history it has been at war for all but 16 years US is the main cause of international disorder global turbulence and regional instability." Carlyle private-credit fund hit with 15.7% in redemption requests Iran war will leave a long-term ‘scar’ on Wall Street, investors warn Iran attacks on crucial Saudi pipeline and production facilities slash kingdom's oil output Trump says Iran should not charge fees to tankers going through Strait of Hormuz Iran war live updates: Netanyahu approves talks with Lebanon but no ceasefire | AP News Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination hearing reportedly delayed — When is next hearing, what's causing hold-up China producer prices turns positive as inflation gets boost from Iran oil shock Goldman Sachs blames a future of potentially higher stock market volatility on AI: "We think the concentration of value in AI-related areas of the market adds to the risk of higher volatility over time  as focus increases on whether the benefits justify that value. Rising market concentration and high valuations—"non-macro" market forces that factor into our models—are not direct measures of those AI-related risks, but they are symptoms of the AI-driven market, as they were in the late 1990s tech boom, and so they are proxies for the impact that AI has had on equity markets in recent years." Ukraine now the war experts.. !... Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute bombshell. President Zelensky officially confirms Ukrainian Special Operations forces are actively deployed in the Middle East and the Gulf! They are setting up protection systems for "partners." The Ukraine war has officially expanded into a global conflict! https://t.co/zRgQqbLAmd " / X Tehran’s island ‘toll booth’ blocks reopening of Strait of Hormuz Israel Secretly Approves Record West Bank Illegal Settlement Orbán’s Spying Kit Revealed: Israeli Surveillance Tool Combined with Hungarian Technology - VSquare.org BOJ is likely to raise interest rate in April, ex-official says Additional oil release to be considered in 20 days National stockpile to be implemented in May|47NEWS Carlyle private-credit fund hit with 15.7% in redemption requests Stock Tip: Mexico-focused miner provides early stage opportunity – The Armchair Trader Brussels banking rules could hit lenders and UK-EU ‘reset’ – The Irish Times Another Brexit win, not Russian submarines ‘tried to spy on UK while world distracted by Iran’ La Jornada - Sheinbaum proposes to produce natural gas through 'fracking' That's a big turnaround kristen shaughnessy on X: " “Private Markets’ Software Pain Is About to Get a Lot Worse” “…More than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt is coming due for repayment through 2028, a chunk of it tied to firms owned by private https://t.co/PXFfPM370S " / X AnthroVet50 on X: "1/ In the 1990s, Trump went bankrupt — multiple times. Western banks stopped lending to him. His empire was collapsing. Then Russian money showed up. And it saved him." / X

Iran war update : reports suggesting that NO energy tankers have actually gone through the strait, yet...Trump 'ceasefire didn't include Lebanon'....then Pakistan said US and Israel actually agreed to it initially....The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.” , also shows the U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome >>> that IS a structural shift in power. Is rael launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the start of its invasion, targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites - clearly not is all well, yet anyway.., Iranian delegation set to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night despite ceasefire violation >>> crude up 3pct again, just under $100.., did Iran get conned by Trump and Pakistan to gain some times ? possibly, fact is ships are not flowing through the strait...a LOT of well-timed trades on Monday again.. (cough!....totally insane what's going on..), '''this whole thing on Monday looked to be staged to save face''', 15 US points to a sudden 10 Iran points..which are both very different....short-term : 2w 'hold' is or was good news for 'markets' but plenty of way this could unravel ! Markets : reminder that $8T of UST debt is rolling over this year, dwarfing anything coming in the next decade (create a risk-off environment for buyers to comeback ?), market got caught short, CTA's (HAD to BUY) bought large Eq on break of 200dma 6630, and sold crude on stop loss basis, this IS what happened, now let's see but IMHO this so-called ceasefire that isn't one, is a pretty fragile one.. >>> art of the deal...threaten to blow up everything, stage some ceasefire with 'draft' tweets, get nada, claim winning bigly, get nothing, and markets rallied hard...?... one can only fear we are going to correct lower again in risk, plenty of noise regarding 25th amendment, to keep everyone busy ! No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change . But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines #USD #UST The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it/Thread JD Vance to lead Iran talks as Teheran says ceasefire violated - The Business Times Trump says US will work closely with Iran, discuss sanctions Fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire shows cracks as Israel pounds Lebanon : NPR EU will still be hit by ‘stagflationary shock’, Brussels warns US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies UK becomes top destination for US jet fuel after Gulf flow squeeze Fed officials still foresee rate cut this year, despite war impacts, minutes show Taco trade explained: Inside the $950 million bet on oil falling before ceasefire – Firstpost Polymarket Iran bets draw fresh dispute and insider scrutiny - Moneyweb The 25th Amendment: Can it be used to remove Trump? What to know in Mississippi Petrostates Without Oil Export Routes Take the Hardest Hit | OilPrice.com #USD will remain under pressure long-term.. Alessandro on X: "The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it. @TaviCosta says that's unsustainable and it's the biggest challenge the US faces from here. Argentina's entire stock market is 10% of GDP. The US is the opposite https://t.co/Vi3soLRJfz " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The war with Iran will doubtlessly be studied for decades but what's already pretty clear at this stage is how much of a strategic defeat it is for the U.S. and Israel, perhaps the worst ever in their history (which is actually what former Israeli PM Yair Lapid already called it : https://t.co/stbdWgcVCq " / X Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: "Orban's betrayal goes much, much further than you think. Secret 12-Point Plan: In December 2025, the Orban government signed a comprehensive agreement with Moscow on cooperation in the areas of economics, energy, culture, and education, — Politico. More and more evidence is https://t.co/l8BM2PEpLb " / X Dublin fuel protests drag on into third day as more go-slow demonstrations hit motorways - live updates | Dublin Live The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: President Trump is considering a plan to "punish" some NATO countries by moving US troops out of countries which he deemed "unhelpful" to the Iran War, per WSJ. Details include: 1. The proposal would involve moving US troops from "unhelpful" countries and into" / X Italy likely to replace CEO of defence group Leonardo, sources say This is good :-) Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions on X: "10/10. No notes. https://t.co/YQ3JPNIR02 " / X

Iran war update : reminder.. Before Trump’s war the Strait of Hormuz was open, sanctions were in place, and U.S gas was below $2.5, then he gave up a lot to reopen it... world economy was prodding along quite nicely before the war, now it will struggle for a number of months, whole Middle East dynamics have totally changed for the long-term.....winning!.. ?.. >>> OK so we have the expected 'truce', now the hard work begins, while the details are worked out, devils always in the details..The Iran 10 point plan is Very different than the initial 15 point plan from the U.S..... ! so beware !.. Markets : 800 vessels still trapped in Hormuz, IATA warns it will take months for fuel supply to fully recover, Vietnam upgrade, was the war even 'legal' (there will be a huge debate going for a long while..), Goldman Sachs: "We have seen one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years ." The employment component of yesterday's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years Confirmation.. : NBER, Bloomberg, Goldman, OBR, NIESR and others have all concluded that Brexit costs the UK about £100bn of GDP foregone per year China’s central bank reported that it bought the most gold in more than a year in March. 17 months in a row Vance, who flew to Budapest to endorse Victor Orban in Sunday’s elections, accused the EU and Ukraine (amongst other things) of interfering in Hungary’s elections. Yup, you read that correctly US Iran war live updates: Iran warns of global fallout as US tensions escalate Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz | investingLive What to Know About the 25th Amendment as Lawmakers Call for Trump’s Removal IATA warns jet fuel recovery will take months after war | News.az Shipowners eye Hormuz truce with 800 vessels still trapped | Business | Ammon News One in eight British residents has left UAE since Iran war, data shows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of" / X Moons apart from the 15 point plan from the U.S !... Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term, signals toward holding rates steady India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady Vietnam Stocks Rise After FTSE Upgrade Nod, US-Iran Ceasefire Why France has shifted its gold reserves out of US The current gold movement has drawn parallels with the 1960s 'Bretton Woods' system where US dollar was convertible into gold for foreign central banks. Back then, France under President Charles de Gaulle was wary of US monetary expansion and secretly repatriated a large chunk of its gold from New York and London between 1963-66. UK City firms report fastest turnaround in fortunes in 30 years | Financial sector | The Guardian Lisa Abramowicz on X: "There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years. https://t.co/vLXJt2A54J " / X Majority of Canadians open to joining EU, new poll suggests - The Globe and Mail Jack Prandelli on X: "Most people think oil = petrol 🛢️But 1 barrel is so much more than that 42 gallons. 159 liters. Here's what's actually inside: ⛽ 42% Petrol (your car) 🚛 27% Diesel ✈️ 10% Jet fuel (your flight) 🧴 7% Petrochemical feedstocks (your plastics) 🚢 5% Marine fuel https://t.co/mJ3zkoVEk2 " / X

Iran war update : just ahead of tonight's deadline.. .massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack, President Trump reasserted his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to reopen the vital oil shipping lane or the country will  face bombardment  of its infrastructure (thing is Iran is negotiating with RoW not with the U.S...).., “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said during a news conference (WSJ, FT), open the strait or we will seize the oil, there was a lot of nonsense spoken over the Easter weekend.. The Iran war just broke the petrodollar. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold than US government bonds . The war is making this look like a signal, all French gold reserves are now held in Paris . French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves (a little fishy..), Kuwait was forced to shut down the desalination plants that provide 90 percent of its drinking water (horrendous way to fight a war..) , Qatar begins US Troop withdrawal ..! let that sink in.., Al Jazeera confirms regional powers like Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are completely bypassing Washington to mediate peace with Iran... >>> what next then ? ... huge escalation, ground troops etc, and/or accept Iran's leverage..(holding the strait of Hormuz is bigger than nuclear.. as it impacts global finance and hits the U.S and its allies most..)...>>> something like this... Iran gets permanent leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and in return: uranium enrichment stops, missiles capped at the current 2000km range etc Markets : U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% (Ugly downgrade..), Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly, nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages >>> overall choppy rangy, we could have a massive escalation and/or some sort of ceasefire, take your pick, we've rallied on hope and short-covering, Crude is and will be the tell, currently still trading near $115 WTI... Private credit, in short: $1.8trn in assets nobody can price, in funds nobody can exit, on borrowers nobody stress-tested; default rates at records. Jamie Dimon says losses are already too high. Warning signs get louder and louder, pay attention!... Welfare spending has overtaken tax revenue for the first time in UK history. The Treasury raised £331bn in income tax last year, while the state spent £333bn on welfare... this cannot continue, of the IMG will be asked to come and visit the UK soon.. PIMCO : '' US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” Michael Saylor’s Strategy registered a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in the first quarter for their failed Bitcoin gamble #MSTR The Iran war just broke the petrodollar - The Business Times Massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack | Watch – Firstpost Kuwait Power, Water Desalination Plants Damaged by Iranian Attack The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4." / X Seems more reasonable..!? Why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% JPMorganChase Publishes 2025 Annual Report, Including Chairman & CEO Letter to Shareholders " The industry has not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen." The cockroaches are still there. They've just been breeding. EndGame Macro on X: "Jamie Dimon Is Warning About More Than Private Credit Losses Jamie Dimon is not arguing that private credit is about to become the next instant banking collapse. He is saying something more uncomfortable. The industry was built during a regime of cheap money, forgiving https://t.co/Fdylf0Us15 " / X Blue Owl Capital (OWL) One-Off $317M Loss Drives Margin Miss, Undercutting Bullish Growth Narratives Barings caps redemptions at private credit fund after investor withdrawals By Investing.com Guess who owns 20% of shares in this fund? Yes, another private credit fund: Cliffwater's Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX) -- $921M as of Q3'25. French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves - RFI Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly - SWI swissinfo.ch Qatar Begins US Troop Withdrawal – DID PRESS AGENCY George Noble on X: "Meet Marc Lipschultz. The man who got paid $23.9 million last year to tell you everything was "fine." On February 5, he sat on Blue Owl's earnings call and said: "We don't have red flags. In point of fact, we don't have yellow flags. We have largely green flags. The tech https://t.co/jgxQiy2NLy " / X (1) The Last Molecule Standing - Shanaka Anslem Perera In 1974, Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia: price your oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and America guarantees your security. The arrangement was never a formal treaty. It was a handshake backed by aircraft carriers. For fifty years, every barrel of oil sold anywhere on earth created demand for the dollar that financed America’s debt. The system required two things to function: Gulf oil priced in dollars, and an American navy guaranteeing the strait through which that oil flowed. Both conditions held until February 28, 2026 Jordan on X: "🚨 US DATA CENTER BUILDOUT HITTING A MAJOR BOTTLENECK Nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages. Companies like Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Google and OpenAI have committed over $600B to AI infrastructure this year. Critical https://t.co/31x88mYM7S " / X Physics & Astronomy Zone on X: "The highest quality video of the moon was just released… this is so beautiful. https://t.co/0JLkB0tOXv " / X

20minutes of rambling.. Trump framed his speech as “mission nearly complete.” , hard to tell !!...no exit from NATO (as some were expecting), then Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ in coming weeks while telling allies they would have to “take the lead” in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, JD Vance was dispatched to deliver an ultimatum to Tehran to make a deal or face attacks on key infrastructure, Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined Hormuz coalition.. Markets: Swiss CPI at 0.2% vs 0.5% expected… big surprise (#CHF weaker, already had a decent monthly fix weaker..) , China claims the U.S has 2months worth of #RARE earth left, 10y JGB yields higher after a frugly auction (war, inflation and the most indebted country in the 'developed' world, KKR limited redemptions in its non-traded private credit retail fund >>> markets learning to 'fade' Trump's daily rants..., crude at $105 or higher isn't welcome for global economy, clearly, but fertilizer, rare earth 'issues' going forward are also a big worry... Oracle cuts 30,000 jobs, cutting workers to fund AI data centers, total of nearly 100 U.S companies have cut 330,000+ , that's 3,900 per day, at the end of Q1..and AI related companies said that Ai will not cost jobs... Keir Starmer says he will form a new partnership with the EU in the coming weeks "As the world continues down this volatile path, our long-term national interest requires closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union" >>>> '' The British ''right'' made a huge bet on the U.S alliance holding together when they 'took' UK out of the EU, Trump has now blown up the American alliance and so the UK may well have ZERO other choice but to head back to Europe'' Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great (for who exactly..).. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... i'd be very suspicious.. better ways to make a return out there !! UK bond markets are dangerously exposed New 10-Year JGB Coupon Set at 28-Year High of 2.4 Pct Secret codes and yuan fees get ships through Iran’s Hormuz tollbooth - The Japan Times Iran, Israel-US war LIVE updates: Iran responds to Trump's address with attack on Israel, US vows to ‘finish job' - World News | The Financial Express Chinese Publication Claims U.S. Has Two Months of Rare Earths Left | OilPrice.com Artemis II: NASA’s First Crewed Lunar Flyby in 50 Years - NASA Pretty extraordinary stuff.... >>>> 0-15,000 mp/h in 7 1/2 mins! NASA on X: "We're going around the Moon. Come watch with us. Artemis II's four-astronaut crew is lifting off from @NASAKennedy on an approximately 10-day mission that will bring us closer to living on the Moon and Mars. The launch window opens at 6:24pm ET (2224 UTC). https://t.co/X27QJejNDt " / X KKR caps redemptions in retail credit fund amid outflows - Bloomberg By Investing.com BofA Sends Alarming Message on Microsoft, Oracle and CoreWeave US set to roll out tiered tariffs on steel, aluminum imports Samuel Hughes on X: "For some years, Berkeley has been the last major housebuilder pushing ahead in London. They are now closing their pipeline of projects. Projects take years to come through the pipeline, so this suggests that London's housing collapse may be even deeper by the end of this https://t.co/LiQKydKu1Y " / X George Noble on X: "$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create https://t.co/btj457rjKd " / X Trump toilet bowl sketch wins Swiss cartoon award - SWI swissinfo.ch I mean... The Intellectualist on X: "“On Palm Sunday, Jesus entered Jerusalem as crowds welcomed him with praise honoring him as king. They call me king now. Can you believe it?” - President Trump compares himself to Jesus Christ, the Christian Messiah, days before the Easter holiday. (2026) https://t.co/3wke4sXlov " / X

Semiconductor Manufacturing - without Helium from Qatar? not so fast... - Iran war update, fast moving : Trump Says U.S. Will Be Leaving Iran in 2-3 Weeks. The president says U.S. has eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat and ‘it will take 15-20 years' to rebuild, U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight. The Gulf state has begun a campaign to persuade the U.S. and allies in Europe and Asia to open the waterway by any means necessary. (WSJ) Markets : Trump seems to sort of signal a TACO within 2-3weeks, job done apparently.. (all very vague...! and it takes TWO to TACO..), crude, usd, equity react accordingly (already got a positive kick into oversold monthly close..), KOSPI up 8% (total casino), Japan business mood hits 4-Year high, MSCI upgrades Greece >>> crude swiftly down 5% or so on the headlines, USD and equity react accordingly, the 5% short covering rally done literally within 24-48hours.. in QQQ, quite amazing really..today's markets, algo's pretty wild, many issues will remain in the global economy, so let's be prudent with big macro view change, calls.. not going to happen so easily.. and Trump may yet change his mind.. Blue Owl Capital Closes New Asset-Backed Fund With $2.9 Billion in Total Commitments- The Asset Special Opportunities Fund IX exceeded an original target of $2.5 billion, suggesting that there remains an appetite from some investors to continue putting money into private credit. (WSJ) Non-Cash-Generating Private-Credit Loans Rise to a 14-Year Peak, Fitch Say Blackstone, Ares, Rivals Grilled by Congress Over Private Credit, KPMG Faces Allegations of Blown Audit in Private Credit Collapse https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7444738951782817792/?originTrackingId=22dtXezm9ukOKrbU2gCNbg%3D%3D Trump to give "important update on Iran" tonight in prime-time speech - CBS News Trump says he expects US to leave Iran in ‘2 or 3 weeks’ - POLITICO Trump says the US is 'leaving soon' and has 'nothing to do' with the Strait. He started a war, lost it, closed the Strait, and now he's pretending it was never his problem. This is what failure looks like Blackstone, Ares, rivals grilled by Congress over private credit KPMG Faces Audit Failure Allegations Over Bridging Finance Funds - Bloomberg Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute humiliation for the White House. CNN's top journalist Christiane Amanpour confirms Russia just completely shattered the US naval blockade on Cuba. Putin sent a massive oil tanker right through America's backyard and Trump did absolutely nothing. https://t.co/zLLvGhv8cj " / X Exclusive | Non-Cash-Generating Private-Credit Loans Rise to a 14-Year Peak, Fitch Says - WSJ MSCI upgrades Athens Stock Exchange to developed market status from 2027 Greek City Times Swiss banks prepare for Gulf clients - SWI swissinfo.ch PeerMetals on X: "Insiders buying $900 silver calls for December 2026. Silver's at $70 right now. That's a 12x move in 9 months. They're not gambling that big on a guess. https://t.co/kspZtjujnh " / X Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up their currency & economies. https://t.co/aUK7HQ8cuP https://t.co/4J2qNgJ2zN " / X Anthropic accidentally releases source code for its popular Claude AI agent | World News - Business Standard Oracle cutting thousands in latest layoff round as AI spending booms Reeves summons supermarket bosses again after snub Germany nuclear power rethink: gas dependence and energy shock fears | Luxembourg Times Japan Business Mood Hits 4-Year High, Keeps BOJ Rate-Hike View Alive - The Japan News Iran war's impact is spreading beyond oil, hitting helium and aluminum

Iran war update : both claiming the other one is begging for a deal, both have very different interests , clearly Trump is worried about 10's UST yields going above 4.5%, and Iran knows it, together with equity markets which didn't really react on the ''10day TACO headline last night'', markets learnings it's just 'nonsense short-term market manipulation', UAE pushes for international force to reopen Hormuz-France and many other countries trying hard too, Bessent's insurance program allegedly ready soon too Markets : UBS suspends withdrawals on real-estate fund (more GATING..), Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously, JGB's, the Japan 2-year yield has hit 30-year highs, FED officials warning on inflation, Miran talks further balance-sheet reduction, Lagarde warns Middle East war energy disruptions may last years, Global trading system hit by 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years': WTO chief >>> given all this. .. markets look to be totally underestimating the issues ahead (globally), technically SPX500, while below 200dma 6630, we have room towards 6000-6100 area, obviously much depends on MiddleEast situation, and length of the troubles, Crude still near highs of the week, didn't really react to Trump's mini TACO last night, in a way we are extending the problems/goods disruption etc.., ENERGY lockdowns are happening already, it is happening, HUGE timing for farming in Australia, seems some of them running out of diesel already=no seeding ... Britain and France will hold talks this week with military representatives from 30 countries to form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz-AFP Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08./Thread - pretty unusual move, thus important ! Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300 Key Reasons for Downgrade - Higher Oil Prices, weak FII flows https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7442480281082609664-00V1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABF-BDoBDdoqegvp6GidvrLMEDRAihKEGQw This is the real reason oil is not freely crossing the Strait of Hormuz: it`s not just the ship risk, but a single cargo of a VLCC tanker, carrying up to 2 mio barrels, is typically worth well over $100 mio. If Iran maintains control of the Strait for an extended period, the World economy could split into even more distinct geopolitical alliances. Iran’s hardliners call for a nuclear bomb, sources say Iran offers Spain rare Hormuz access France says it approached 35 countries over future Hormuz mission | The Straits Times Scott Bessent says insurance program for Hormuz ships to start soon Jeremy Kress on X: "Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08. This is the first time I can recall the Fed ever approving a regulatory action by 4-3 vote." / X Trump Lashes Out At NATO Allies And Threatens Iran NATO will remember this for a very long time—well beyond the next decade, well into the next generation. Trump has effectively shouted to the whole alliance that the United States no longer needs anything from them , and Europe has understood the message perfectly. As a result, vast sums are being redirected into European defence projects, manufacturers, and supply chains. U.S. defence contractors are likely seething at the prospect Rob Smith on X: "I'm out of diesel. All the farmers are out of diesel. This is it. We're done for. Albanese and Bowen are directly to blame. This is serious. I promise you. All other countries have diesel, and it averages $1.80 per litre in most countries in the Asia Pacific. But not Australia." / X Europe could face fuel shortage by April as Iran throttles supplies, says Shell boss | Energy industry | The Guardian Fed’s Cook says Iran war shifts risk balance toward inflation By Investing.com Fed official issues stark warning on inflation, interest-rate cuts due to Iran war Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term, signals toward holding rates steady Fed's Miran favors looking through oil price spike, says concern is about job market - AOL Lagarde warns Middle East war energy disruptions may last years By Investing.com Global trading system hit by 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years': WTO chief https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP2Y you have to go back to early 90's to have 2y JGB yields 'this high' UBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 years More 'GATING' , most likely not the last (were investors aware of this scenario?..pretty sure not all of them..) ..UBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 years. . Swiss bank said liquid assets in the Germany-based fund were insufficient to meet rise in redemption requests junkbondinvestor on X: "Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously. $4.6B in unfunded commitments. 14% redemption requests. S&P negative outlook. “It all works great when no one wants their money back.” https://t.co/dvaahM42nq " / X “It all works great when no one wants their money back.” George Noble on X: "Wall Street's favorite lie has 3 words: "Stay the course." Every year around this time, the biggest asset managers publish their annual letters. And every year, the message is identical: don't sell, don't time the market, just keep your money right where it is. Funny how https://t.co/vWxdAf8DJo " / X Every year around this time, the biggest asset managers publish their annual letters. And every year, the message is identical: don't sell, don't time the market, just keep your money right where it is. Funny how that advice PERFECTLY aligns with their business model OSINTdefender on X: "U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s Treasury Department is planning to add his signature to all denominations of the United States Dollar moving forward, which will mark the first time in history that the sitting president’s signature will appear on American Currency, with Trump’s https://t.co/6ET6pvpJGE " / X Will you want to own one of them?.. Jetzt gehts los: Giga-Abbauwelle bei UBS – Inside Paradeplatz

Update : Donald Trump insisted Iran is negotiating and desperate to make a deal, even as Tehran publicly rejected Washington’s overtures and issued conditions of its own . Iran is drafting a law to impose Hormuz transit tolls, Fars reported. Deployment of thousands of American troops to the Mideast has fanned fears of a risky ground invasion. White House threatens more attacks if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflict, North Korea warns the U.S. against a ground invasion of Iran— signalling it PLANS to support Tehran if the war escalates. >>> TRUMP: “I call it a ‘military operation’. I’m told not to call it a war because you’re supposed to have congressional approval to go to war.” Iran published a list of 10 countries whose citizens can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without paying 2 million dollars, and Mexico ranks second after China ….Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait/Thread Markets : Lloyd Blankfein warned of a “fire” risk in private assets, private assets, credit, markdown (joining call of what's been pointed out for a long while), Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial (opens the flood gates to many more cases that are 'halted-pending'..), Trump to Travel to China on May 14-15 for Summit With Xi, Larry Fink reminds everyone of the obvious (Crude at $150 = global recession >>> infrastructure, oil, NatGas, military bases, the next final danger is water contamination, which is 'the' most terrible act possible, let's clearly hope for some understanding between Iran and U.S/Israel, hard to follow exactly where we are , 5days deadline is tomorrow though, what next ? U.S troops on the ground, Kharg Island ? fwiw, have the feeling that Mr Market is hoping-praying-positioned for a relative short war & part resolution, while we have to hope so, markets are not positioning for a prolonged period of troubles, let alone escalation.. a deeper corrections towards SPX 6K should not be too much of a shock given elevated energy prices, crude, inflation (no FED cuts for 2026), trade dislocation, and general sentiment deteriorating, consumers, daily traders buying the dip etc, getting hurt now.. watch 200dma's, SPX500 is around 6630 (weekly close below will matter as will monthly-quarterly close next Tuesday..) Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as “haven for Jewish people” - Haaretz The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist...coincidence with office raide ..? Australians can now live & work freely in the EU for 4 years and vice versa US insists talks ongoing even as Iran rejects Trump outreach - The Business Times Iran gives five conditions for ending war, official tells state TV | Middle East Eye After Delay Due To Iran War, Trump To Meet Xi In Beijing On May 14-15 Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial - CBS News BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns $150 oil could trigger global recession JPMorgan offers clients a new way to hedge AI debt risk The Big short ? Brian Sozzi on X: "Deutsche Bank with a reminder to not overlook the current oil price shock: https://t.co/dVqVUi4Xz0 " / X Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as "haven for Jewish people" Lloyd Blankfein Warns Private Markets Face Risk of Widespread Asset Markdowns - Bloomberg Volkswagen may turn car factory into Iron Dome hub with Israel partnership | World News - Business Standard Megatron on X: "BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty. Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, https://t.co/xdsGP465Rp " / X Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist to Canadian billionaire Robert A. Pape on X: "Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait. Houthi proxies fully capable of doing this. Vessel would need to divert thru Suez, add weeks, if not months, to journeys — if further strikes don’t shutter the port completely. Escalation Trap tightens… https://t.co/gQEedVlThy " / X

Let's hope for thebest....Reports a 'proposal' for a deal...Trump backed down from his 48 hours ultimatum, not because of the war, but because of the escalation int he Gulf... so now suggests.. 'NO nuke, 1month ceasefire, reopen Hormuz and a total of 15points to end the Iran war'' (many points that were already agreed pre war at the GVA talk, a deal that was 'sabotaged' )... >>> IRAN responded to the talks, with extensive demands.. Markets : Trump ends the war, or maybe not, or it gets worse, clearly desperate to manipulate markets in short-term, sadly enough it works...all very North Korea like, Crude prices down, USD slightly softer, risk rallies a little more, PM's back up (once the 'risk-off, USD liquidity seeking scenario' out of the way..), Intel, AMD tell clients of March, April CPU price hikes, |  Meta Platforms delays EU launch of new display-equipped Ray-Ban smart glasses! >>> relief rally in risk-Eq, on hope of a deal into month-end possibly, if so, USD can weaken again for same reason, crude down to $80 perhaps, why not... Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors.. / Thread Former UK Minister Alan Duncan confirms there was a clear peace agreement mediated by Oman for ZERO nuclear proliferation in Iran. But it was sabotaged and betrayed by Israel because they always wanted to attack Iran. Israel started this war! Israel's defense minister just said Israel will occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River marking the first clear statement of intent to steal the territory Morgan Stanley analysts: “We see the $80-90 level as a 2026 price point in a de-escalation scenario . Continued constraints would likely drive an oil price near $100-110 for at least 2-3 months…Modeling oil at $150+ introduces new non-linearities to economies.” General Jim Mattis completely destroys Trump's Iran war strategy on live TV . He says hitting 15,000 targets means nothing without a real plan, and calls the demands for unconditional surrender and regime change absolute "delusional nonsense." The Rothschild raid just got bigger. French prosecutors say diplomat Fabrice Aidan transferred UN Security Council briefings to Epstein No nuke, 1-month ceasefire, opening of Strait of Hormuz: Trump's 15-point plan to end Iran war Iran responded to the Trump administration’s ceasefire proposal with extensive demands: - Closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf. - A new Strait of Hormuz framework allowing Iran to charge transit fees. - Full sanctions relief. - An end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah. - No discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Oil prices fall as Trump hails ‘productive’ conversations with Iran on an end to the war | CNN Business US Deploys Troops To Middle East While Pursuing Iran Talks On Thursday - Report - i24NEWS US sees possibility of diplomacy with Iran as war costs rise Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz. Tehran tells IMO member nations that vessels must co-ordinate with it to pass through vital waterway Israel plans to occupy southern Lebanon from the Blue Line to the Litani River - ABC News Fed's Barr: Elevated Inflation Likely Merits Extended Rate Pause | Morningstar Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (1) Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors 'Big Short' Legend Steve Eisman Says SoFi's Private Credit Problems Could Be 'Potentially A Disaster' The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it | Fortune AI boom fuels Intel, AMD CPU crunch, hits PC makers with rising costs | Tech News - Business Standard Meta Hits Pause on Ray-Ban Display Expansion to Europe and Canada some real news finally..

Richard-Mark Dodds, Chief Investment Officer of Swiss fund manager Pure Value Metrics, who had previously predicted the Credit Suisse failure now talks about Markets and Relative Value in 2023. To view the other CNBC appearance on the demise of Credit Suisse, press here .

Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come Apollo : only 45% of requested withdrawals from $15 bn private credit fund.. >>> so we had BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, yesterday Apollo, now watch for the likes of Goldman, KKR, Ares and Oaktree over the next few days / weeks!!... Blue Owl’s other fund, OCIC, might show some nasty record into month/quarter end.., Private Credit Fund Run by Future Standard and KKR Cut to Junk by Moody’s >>> IT's beginning to ADD-UP ! Mini TACO.. The USeee Trump backed down, the "Art of the Deal"..., he was forced to cancel strikes because Iran's guaranteed retaliation against Israel and the Gulf states would be "enormous". The cost of war is too high. Iran called his bluff.!...Netanyahu disagrees with what Trump is doing, >>> Kalanovic : If in a conflict one is willing to lie to quickly remove pressure from market, what that signals to the enemy? Signals weak hand, low pain threshold so that they need to press on. What it signals to allies? Stay away unreliable policies change on few points of market drop. Marine traffic data shows, Many of ships are starting to pass through Strait of Hormuz again, it seems Iran approved all GCC, European and foreign Ships with $2 million in CNY  except Israel and US Markets : Clear fraudulent action pre Trump 'mini TACO', though fair to say it was heading into such a scenario (UST's, bonds, eq, usd down together always ends up in some kind of TACO..), Donald talks major points of agreement, Iran is having none of it, EU and Australia clinch trade and security pacts, Japan PM says country will start releasing oil reserves Thursday, GS : brace for a worldwide inflation surge , Trump just weaponized LNG >>> the global issues will remain for a while, they won't go away overnight, if if Trump wishes so, airline disruption, crude, freight, fertilizer AND inflation will be higher, (it could still get worse clearly.. but seems Trump 'is' folding'..as financial, economic consequences too dear for him..) and inflation likely to remain more elevated than previously thought, clearly..., BONDS not doing what they supposed to do lately.. equity markets should struggle although it's not bad for all companies! US Envoy Says EU faces higher tariffs if Trade Deal fails, usual threats, what else... EU and Australia clinch trade and security pacts Japan reports lower-than-expected core inflation for February Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come Iran war could widen as UAE, Saudi Arabia align with US, Israel to join conflict, says report – Firstpost Trump Delays Strikes on Iranian Energy Sites 5 Days .... Iran Says War Continues Until All Sanctions Are Lifted: TV US Envoy Says EU Faces Higher Tariffs if Trade Deal Fails - TT More threats..what's new.. But... its about this and it matters! ... (1) THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera ‘Zombie’ tankers take Tehran Toll Booth route as more vessels make detour :: Lloyd's List Iran conflict hits automotive manufacturing: Aluminium shortages, $112 oil and factory cuts Iran attacks in Strait of Hormuz are ‘economic terrorism,’ UAE oil exec says NO doubt Trump's mates had a little punt ahead of his TACO... or is it pure coincidence ?... Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) on X: "5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight! https://t.co/RhE3hiC0lj " / X Apollo private credit fund gives investors only 45% of requested withdrawals kristen shaughnessy on X: "$3 Trillion Private Credit Beast: Looks Fine… Until It Doesn’t “….in an ominous echo of past financial crises, no one is sure just how much banks’ lending exposure to private credit funds could end up costing the financial system and economy in a shake-up. Estimates vary https://t.co/5ZzVWmmqN7 " / X Amazon Says Web Services Disrupted After Drone Operations In Bahrain, Cloud Migrations Underway | World News - News18 European Green Transition sees tailwind from new UK strategy – The Armchair Trader UK looks at supporting vulnerable households after surge in energy prices

Latest on Iran war : 24hours to find out if Trump carries out his threat !. . Donald Trump issued Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days or have its power plants bombed. Tehran threatened to “completely” close the corridor if attacked . Two Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defences, injuring about 115 people, while the IDF said it began strikes on regime infrastructure in Tehran. Saudi Arabia is relying on a 1,200-kilometer pipeline built in the 1980s to maintain its oil flows, Iranian Missile Strikes Are Costing Big Oil Billions in Lost Revenue. Damaged energy infrastructure is likely to take years to come back online , but a surge in oil-and-gas prices is helping to offset some of the lost production for now. (WSJ), Trump-Xi summit on hold until Iran conflict ends, ME Countries thought hosting US bases made them safe. Instead, it’s made them targets!!../Rory , “We must face reality — the West has split.” / Stubb Markets : Trump's 48hour threat, OIL up 'only' around $100 again, Eq futures pointing down again, as everything sells off, including UST's... 10s UST now 4.42% !!!... MAG7 down 12% YTD, GOLD 200dma around $ 4¨100 (liquidation, where the profits are.., USD liquidity seeking from ME most likely and killing any other leveraged positions elsewhere) >> markets will be jittery, HUGE week IMHO.. !! we may get some sort of TACO this week (quite how it looks like is another question..),... but VERY hard to tell what happens in between.., risk is definitely getting towards cheap(er) levels! prepare your shopping list, we have ''Netanyahu is panicking. He admits on camera that he and Trump are desperately trying to drag Europe and the rest of the world into their disastrous war. He is begging the international community for help because the US and Israel cannot win this alone'' Friedrich Merz’s reform drive put at risk after vote in western state Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent, people say even CEOs may be replaced now Qatar Airways parks long-haul jets in storage in Spain. Transfer of planes to Teruel airport signals airline is preparing for ongoing Gulf conflict, SWISS cutting tons of flight over summer, other airlines in similar situation Google Searches for "Help With Mortgage" have soared to the highest level in history, surpassing even the peak of the Global Financial Crisis "Sometimes, you have to escalate to deescalate." — Walther Funk, German Reich Minister of Economics, 1941 "Sometimes, you have to escalate to deescalate." — Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, 2026 Trump gives Iran 48-hour ultimatum to reopen Strait of Hormuz or face ‘obliteration’ of power infrastructure | The Independent Bond Market’s Big 2026 Fed Bet Flipped on Its Head by Oil Surge Trump-Xi summit on hold until Iran conflict ends, people briefed say Oil whipsaws as war risks to energy facilities counter prospect of eased Iran sanctions The Week Ahead: data set to show the economic effects of the war – The Armchair Trader President Stubb of Finland: ‘We must face reality – the West has split’ – Ukraine Today .org Jim Bianco on X: "Danny @citrinowicz is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer in charge is IDF intelligence on Iran. He is now a think-tank analyst regularly sought by mainstream outlets and policymakers. —— Many expect Trump to TACO, declare victory, and leave. Citrinowicz warns this" / X (1) THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera Iran threatens to strike Gulf power plants after Trump ultimatum | Reuters IEA discussing further oil stock releases, chief Birol says Winners and losers in France’s municipal elections – POLITICO UK energy supplier flags growing debt burden as Iran conflict drives up prices Starmer adviser calls for temporary UK energy profit cap Elon Musk Wants to Build the World's Largest Chip Factory Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent, people say even CEOs may be replaced now SWISS offers up to CHF15,000 for voluntary departure - SWI swissinfo.ch SWISS cancels hundreds of flights this summer due to pilot shortage - SWI swissinfo.ch Qatar Airways parks long-haul jets in storage in Spain Liz Webster on X: "⚠️‼️ @RoryStewartUK gives the truth on #Iran Countries thought hosting US bases made them safe. Instead, it’s made them targets. If strikes are launched from your territory, you become part of the conflict and the infrastructure around you is at risk. That applies just as https://t.co/QxcLDq0gop " / X Global Insight Journal on X: "🇨🇳 Professor Jiang — the man nicknamed “The Professor” because he is truly one of the most dangerous geopolitical minds in the world — revealed to Tucker Carlson words you will not hear anywhere else: Iran’s war is an American quagmire with no bottom… China is the biggest https://t.co/7bsH0sjH3M " / X