Markets : Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says, They risk hitting 6% for the first time since 2000, according to Pimco. (FT), OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected (cracks start appearing), Apple cuts iPhone 18 Pro orders due to soft demand, THE EUROPEAN UNION trade chief began his mission to China yesterday—but soon got a shock, and it now starts of course 'Lagarde signals ECB ready to counter unwarranted market dynamics'.... (might well calm things down for a while mind...) >>> look for risk of USD peak, Yields 'topping', GOLD, Silver, PALL, XPT lows and likely, possible decent rally from here, BTC etc...reversal of what's been going on last 4-6 weeks in particular.. PIMCO - The world's biggest bond fund just said the US 10yr yield could hit 6% Trump said the US would “not be attacking Iran” before November’s midterms, citing productive talks between the two countries. Oil fell, Iran reiterates it has "full control" of the Strait of Hormuz China is set to resume exports ‌of petroleum refined products after a brief halt during its Golden Week holiday, a move that will help ease tight global diesel, gasoline and jet fuel markets. UK fiscal strategy faces pressure as O’Neill urges smaller budget buffer over tax rises BMW withdraws its offer of company cars to AfD politicians FT: SoftBank is in talks with senior Gulf figures, including in the UAE, to raise up to $100B for a fund that would buy companies and apply AI and robotics to their operations. The Toll Booth Economy. Thoughts on the Overnight News Saudi authorities say 3 killed in attacks on Riyadh airport claimed by Houthi rebels | AP News Ukraine War, Day 1,688: 33 Murdered In Russia's Strike on Minibuses in Kramatorsk - EA WorldView Without tariffs, inflation on goods would have fallen: New York Fed Treasury yields steady, Trump takes diplomatic tone on Iran OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected BMW stoppt Dienstwagen-Angebot nach Wahl von AfD-Politiker - 20 Minuten This doesn't sound too rosy either Nvidia-backed Firmus eyes $3B funding after scrapping $5B IPO: report (NVDA:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha Starlink: Why Elon Musk is taking on Mukesh Ambani and Jio over satellite internet Apple Cuts iPhone 18 Pro Component Orders by 15% | MarketScreener Fort Hood attacker's execution by firing squad will be livestreamed, Pentagon says China to resume October fuel exports after holiday pause, sources say | Reuters Nury Vittachi on X: "THE EUROPEAN UNION trade chief began his mission to China yesterday—but soon got a shock. It started well enough, with Maroš Šefčovič meeting EU companies in the Asian country. “Day one in China, with one goal: begin rebalancing our EU-China unsustainable trade deficit,” the EU https://t.co/Sv40RZ2HHq" / X Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election after Keir Starmer's resignation as Polanski vows to stay as Green leader UK fiscal strategy faces pressure as O’Neill urges smaller budget buffer over tax rises Will El Niño and the polar vortex bring snow to the UK this winter? - BBC Weather

Markets : Middle East oil exports recover to pre-Iran war levels, US 30-year bond yield just hit 5.7% for the first time since 2002, 10's USt auction last night 'steady' with 30's auction ce soir (follow here : Live US Debt Monitor ), FED minutes 'hawkish unity' >>> Since Bessent made his "I am the house" comment: - Yen ¥153 → ¥158 - US 10yr rates 4.79% → 5.35% - US 30yr rates 5.22% → 5.72%...just can't beat that !.., USD stays firm, risk in general struggling (EU lagging), JPY 'FED used Treasury Funds to support YEN in joint intervention' Debt : The extra interest France pays vs Germany is at its HIGHEST since the euro debt crisis 16 years ago. China now borrows cheaper than America. A lot cheaper. For 2 decades the US 10yr yield sat below China's. That flipped coming out of Covid (chart available), The "AI Big 10" now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap (Thread : that's a lot of eggs ion the same basket..!), The 3 companies are seeking blockbuster debt deals to pay for AI Chips. Apollo, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs are among the lenders in talks to finance megadeals worth tens of billions of dollars apiece UK : (here we go...) Welfare review delayed until after budget, Equinor says it may stop investing in UK if oil and gas fields do not get go-ahead France does not need ECB's help at present, says Bank of France head Moulin....humm not the kind thing one CB head should be saying.. The EU is preparing so-called safeguard measures that would limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles into the bloc in a bid to improve the trade relationship Back me or face crisis, Meloni warns ahead of secret vote over electoral overhaul-FT For the first time in eight years, military representatives from all 32 NATO member states have arrived in kiev, according to Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone. It's not Ukraine vs. Russia It's NATO vs. Russia Europe is preparing to end veto abuse by future members. New members will temporarily lose their voting rights if they abandon EU values. Bessent now... Bessent downplays worries on rising yields, AI bubble concerns Scott had a message for markets in an interview with Axios, as some benchmark Treasury yields sit at their highest in more than two decades. He said the recent rise in yields was in line with global trends and didn't warrant consternation, and that the key is to keep the long view, you really can't make this up better than he does..!!... Fed Used Treasury Funds to Support Yen in Joint Intervention - Bloomberg US government bonds steady after strong 10-year Treasury auction Barchart on X: "U.S. Debt will rise to 175% of GDP within 30 years, warns the Congressional Budget Office 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/tCkhFEUD5t" / X Fed minutes suggest that more interest rate hikes could be necessary to calm persistent inflation Broadcom, Oracle, and SpaceX pursue blockbuster debt deals amid AI buildout - WSJ Middle East oil exports recover to pre-Iran war levels Meloni’s electoral reform faces final parliamentary hurdle Welfare review delayed until after budget Equinor may stop investing in UK if oil and gas fields do not get go-ahead ...Unusually strong intervention from Norways Equinor - from whom UK buys 50% of its gas Badenoch vows to end inheritance tax on family homes France does not need ECB's help at present, says Bank of France head | Reuters Marcos Agustín on X: "🇪🇺 No new Orbán in the EU. Europe is preparing to end veto abuse by future members. 🔸New members will temporarily lose their voting rights if they abandon EU values. 🔸 The EU also wants greater use of qualified-majority voting, including on sanctions. 🔸 Orbán repeatedly https://t.co/wVfKD1xwwC" / X Golden naked Trump statue unveiled at European Parliament Don't think it' s the kind of gold statue that he likes.. Prince Harry and Meghan Markle handed brutal verdict over UK security | This is Oxfordshire The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The "AI Big 10" now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap. This includes Magnificent 7 stocks as well as Broadcom, $AVGO, AMD, $AMD, and Micron, $MU. This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low. By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com https://t.co/F9QzpRkeus" / X

Zurich airport breaks single day passenger record Markets : Fed eyes AI, tariffs, energy for inflation outlook (Axios), BOJ's dovish dissenter signals support for future rate hikes, India hiked 25bps to 5.5%, Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year, The AI Bubble is nearing a bursting point (Dalio), A reversal in the AI trade could be triggered by several factors, including safety concerns that lead to tighter regulation: Temasek, Ireland cuts energy taxes in budget to appease voters >>> rates stay slightly firm(er), USD follows, risk holding up on AI (rates don't matter for now, AI insensitive to rates, will keep raising as returns are far in excess of said rates, but one day the music will stop dead - Grundlach, fwiw very much agree with him..) JPMorgan is marketing a $5B Volta loan at roughly that yield, funding 36,000 Nvidia GPUs and a data centre in Norway Shell CEO Wael Sawan on the new conversation around energy: “I think there's a recognition once again that you cannot have national security without energy security. You cannot have an industrial or an economic strategy that is not underpinned with a solid energy strategy.” >> most definitely correct ! France's appetite for 'magic money' has turned into a debt bomb / WSJ Google is reportedly close to a $1 billion+ deal to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy, and it could be announced as soon as this week Russia's Finance Ministry announced on October 5 that it will increase FX and gold purchases to five times the September level between October 7 and November 6 China shut down a record 670 banks in 2025, and nearly a quarter of its banking system has disappeared in just four years Federal Reserve watches AI, tariffs, energy for inflation risk BOJ's dovish dissenter signals support for future rate hikes | Reuters Indian central bank hikes rates for first time since 2023 Irish Budget cuts heating oil carbon tax as industry renews VAT challenge | Fuel Oil News Russia's Finance Ministry Increases Foreign Exchange and Gold Purchases Five-Fold on October 5 | Gate News Zurich airport breaks single day passenger record - SWI swissinfo.ch Similar picture globally... In Interview, Vance Says Iran Must Cut Enrichment To End War | HuffPost Latest News Is SpaceX’s $40 billion Nvidia deal the next big test for AI debt markets? - Global Markets News | The Financial Express A 2 page memo with a few pictures, we need $40bn thanks Ray Dalio warns AI bubble is nearing its bursting point as rates rise Singapore's Temasek warns of the ‘biggest risk’ facing markets Traders Reload Bets on Ever Higher Bond Yields After Brief Jolt - Bloomberg Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year India joins global rate-tightening wave with first hike in nearly 4 years | Reuters China closed 670 banks in 2025 in major financial consolidation JPMorgan Dangles 11% Yield on Volta’s $5 Billion AI Loan Sale Why Is War Fever Spreading in Europe? - by Martin Gurri France’s Appetite for ‘Magic Money’ Has Turned Into a Debt Bomb - WSJ Student riots engulf France as Le Pen vows fiscal turnaround Google, Constellation near deal for nuclear power, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters Bull Theory on X: "🚨 THE FED IS NOW GETTING SERIOUSLY WORRIED ABOUT THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET. The New York Fed has reportedly gone into JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Barclays and Morgan Stanley to examine their exposure to private credit firms, including the quality of the collateral backing those https://t.co/D0M750JNM2" / X Gold set for fresh record on strong precious metals sentiment – The Armchair Trader

Markets : Trump just told Time magazine that they'll use INFLATION to deal with their $40T debt problem (good Thread), he also eased 'diesel' limits, $16.75B+ of US debt scheduled to be bought back this month.. (Thread), Citadel Securities says economic strength drives Higher U.S yields, Japan 30-year yield soared to highest level in history 4.26%, Oil is flowing from Hormuz again – Just not the kind the world needs most. The scramble is on for diesel, while damaged refineries and tight fuel supplies keep prices elevated around the world >>> Crude softer, welcome news for Europe (in particular, DAX catch up ??) , USD peak ? hard to pin point why though, watch price action!, rates stay high (across globe), GOLD has held well in face of higher rates globally (bond risk) France: Central Bank Gov sounds the alarm: ‘We’re being strangled by interest rates’, France will 'reassure' bond investors.... ( >> hang on he was Sec General for the President previously..surely not...), big state, massive public sector, enormous taxes, and immigration. Result? Stagnation, discontent, and a monster debt crisis. Taxpayers in France are fed up, and recipients of subsidies are relegated to a dependent subclass. Von der Leyen: €300 billion in European savings flown overseas every year, primarily to the US, will be invested in Europe from now on. All 27 EU states agreed to establish the S&I Union, a step toward the full Capital Market Union Switzerland is highly sought after by international talent. However, astronomical rents, a housing shortage and the hurdles of integration take their toll Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says nearly 3B barrels of oil supply have been lost, about half of what would normally move through Hormuz, and emergency reserves "may buy us a winter." Gold retains key reserve status despite surging bond yields, central bankers say The battle for one of the world’s most important shipping routes is shifting quickly... Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have seized key positions overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, The stakes go far beyond Yemen: with Hormuz already restricted, Bab el-Mandeb has become even more critical for global oil and trade flows Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 on X: "Trump just told Time magazine that they'll use INFLATION to deal with their $40T debt problem. They've printed about $1T into the ecosystem in 8 months. If your salary hasn't kept up with the new of cost of living, YOU just got poorer. Let me explain what I mean:🧵" / X France: Central Bank Governor sounds the alarm: ‘We’re being strangled by interest rates’ - Il Sole 24 ORE French central bank head warns country at risk of being ‘strangled by interest rates’ France’s fiscal reckoning is a warning, not a model Ukraine war latest: Russian losses soar by 46% during 2026 Saudi-backed Yemeni forces seize Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Houthi rebels | The Independent CNBC Daily Open: 'Red' diesel to hit U.S. highways Separatists win provincial elections in Québec in test for Canada PM Nic on X: "$16.75B+ of US debt scheduled to be bought back this month. - $12B+ targets 10–30yr debt - Long-end buybacks have been doubled - Operations can now reach $4B+ each - 30yr yields remain near their highest level in 2 decades Billions in buybacks. Still no relief in yields. https://t.co/jMsiEDOJNf" / X Gold retains key reserve status despite surging bond yields, central bankers say | Reuters Russian gold floods Hong Kong as Western sanctions redraw bullion trade Marcos Agustín on X: "🇪🇺🇭🇺 The Russian era in Hungary has ended. Hungary will lift its veto on Ukraine and Moldova. 🔸 Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania will join the EU in the coming years 🔸 They will gradually integrate into the Single Market before full accession. 🔸 The UK will rejoin," / X Trump approval ratings plummet to new low, polls show | Donald Trump | The Guardian ‘Anyone moving to Switzerland just for the money often ends up disappointed’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Bundesrats-Favoritin Amaudruz, Zögling von Ermotti – Inside Paradeplatz GMO sends stark warning on stock market - TheStreet Nobel Prize 2026 awarded for showing how nerve cells shape feelings GM says hybrid vehicles are coming: 'We're not tone deaf'

Markets : EURUSD now on 18months lows (EURJPY still massively higher..JPN liquidation coming ? seems so) - EUR-Crisis 2.0 ?... (France debt, Spanish snap election etc), USD bounces back after weak NFP on Friday, Brent crude still around $100, Brail markets (ETF) rallies nearly 7% overnight on Bolsonaro lead and most likely win, Luxury London homes values are down by almost Half in Real Terms, G7 agreed to release 100mio barrels of diesel and crude last week >>> SPX500, QQQ on highs, yet not all that well underneath it all (same old picture..), rates dipped on weak NFP but didn't stay low for long Trump tells South Korea to sign on to Alaska LNG deal or ‘I’ll just charge them more’ ‘Unwelcome and unsafe’: Why Japanese companies are retreating from China at a record pace Russia hospitalizes almost 200 people after researcher’s death from plague Trump tells South Korea to join Alaska LNG deal or pay more Euro sinks to 17-month low as French fiscal woes spur contagion fears | Reuters Nic on X: "Japanese investors are DUMPING French bonds. They hold $145 billion worth & now they're heading for the exits Holdings are down 2.5% this year and some like Sumitomo Mitsui sold everything. Even with French yields at their highest level since 2002, they don't offer much more https://t.co/euBgPD6szA" / X Micron just sent a stark memory chip warning to tech stock investors - TheStreet Surging Treasury yields don’t signal a U.S. 'fiscal apocalypse' — yet Japan's century-old businesses are disappearing at a record pace Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil election goes to run-off Under pressure from the PSOE and the government, Sánchez is heading for a snap election - Il Sole 24 ORE Swiss Senate introduces new immigration tax - SWI swissinfo.ch Startup success is rare enough in the UK without any more taxes ‘People are deserting it’: why are London mansions struggling to sell? | Property | The Guardian Plague: Russia hospitalizes almost 200 people after death: Reports

Europe is finding itself sandwiched from all sides when it comes to refined products — diesel in particular (some of the damage is due to the US-Iran war; some is due to Ukraine-Russia; some is due to China, and a lot is self-inflicted). Policy response: Head in the sandAmazon seeks to shift about $8bn of NVDA's chips off its balance-sheet, and lease them back with investors providing financing (CoreWeave did the same, same as hyperscalers do, NVDA finances companies to buy NVDA chips..and these companies hige the debt in SPV's..>>> This is most-desperate thing 'ever'..but so 2026 !... Markets : 'Welcome back,’ says Macron, as British PM opens door to EU return (repeat..won't happen, can't happen, but closer to EU, bilaterals type scenario, sure is a 'must'), US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, Fed’s Lorie Logan said rates need to rise to fully cool inflation, suggesting US yields may also help slow the economy, Investors dumped the BlackRock Mortgage Bond ETF last month at the fastest pace in history, surpassing the Global Financial Crisis and Covid, bank continue to weaken (GS is now 20% off highs-for example), JPN Inflation 2.7% (exp 2.3% - BoJ's target blown through) >>> French bonds a clear issue for EURO going into 2027, bond market sell-off beginning to really hurt, and repricing of risk buckets happening (heavily geared companies in big struggle), clear 'risks' going into Q4 2026.. (diesel, Middle east still, hyperscalers 'off-balance-sheet' deals, plenty of elections coming up, with Brazil first round this weekend, US med-terms soon ! andof crouse France next year US deploys more troops | The Pentagon will deploy 10,000 more troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, | Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks Japan’s prime minister says her policies will boost confidence in the yen after U.S. intervention falls short Amazon seeks to offload $8 billion of Nvidia chips to investors, FT reports | Reuters US won't 'sit there and take' overproduction from China: USTR Greer - Nikkei Asia France: Student protests over conditions at French high schools fuel political clashes French bond spreads widen as OAT market pressure intensifies EU nations to hold emergency meeting on soaring diesel prices amid US pressure - CNA Brazil election: U.S.-China rivalry and government debt loom large CNBC Daily Open: Bond yield whiplash grips global economy Andy Burnham's 'big gamble' to put London back at heart of Europe after Brexit blunder | The Standard Bargain Britain lures foreign buyers as hostile takeovers surge Merz accuses Russia of supporting Germany's far-right AfD | RBC-Ukraine Japan: Yen valuation is a problem, intervention efforts disappoint Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes | Reuters South Korean President Lee warns of 'measures' against Ukraine Bond markets give France a whacking for fiscal irresponsibility Sir Alex Ferguson on brain haemorrhage and games that shaped his life - BBC Sport ‘Wrongdoing’ at Manchester City should lead to ‘appropriate consequences’, says Downing Street | ITV News Granada Swiss gas sector views coming winter with concern - SWI swissinfo.ch

Amazon seeks to shift about $8bn of NVDA's chips off its balance-sheet, and lease them back with investors providing financing (CoreWeave did the same, same as hyperscalers do, NVDA finances companies to buy NVDA chips..and these companies hige the debt in SPV's..>>> This is most-desperate thing 'ever'..but so 2026 !... The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.33%, the highest since 2002. U.S national debt in 2002 was just $6 trillion. Paying 5.33% on that entire amount would cost $319.8 billion annually. On today’s $40.1 trillion debt, it would cost $2.14 trillion annually—more than Social Security..... real bigly issue! Markets : 'Welcome back,’ says Macron, as British PM opens door to EU return (repeat..won't happen, can't happen, but closer to EU, bilaterals type scenario, sure is a 'must'), US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, Fed’s Lorie Logan said rates need to rise to fully cool inflation, suggesting US yields may also help slow the economy, Investors dumped the BlackRock Mortgage Bond ETF last month at the fastest pace in history, surpassing the Global Financial Crisis and Covid, bank continue to weaken (GS is now 20% off highs-for example), JPN Inflation 2.7% (exp 2.3% - BoJ's target blown through) >>> French bonds a clear issue for EURO going into 2027, bond market sell-off beginning to really hurt, and repricing of risk buckets happening (heavily geared companies in big struggle), clear 'risks' going into Q4 2026.. (diesel, Middle east still, hyperscalers 'off-balance-sheet' deals, plenty of elections coming up, with Brazil first round this weekend, US med-terms soon ! andof crouse France next year FRANCE, French bonds hammered, Gilets jaunes likely to reappear in force, CDS to 15y highs, a clear nightmare scenario going into election next year.. (you think is bad ?.. this is a lot worse) US deploys more troops | The Pentagon will deploy 10,000 more troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, | Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks Europe is finding itself sandwiched from all sides when it comes to refined products — diesel in particular (some of the damage is due to the US-Iran war; some is due to Ukraine-Russia; some is due to China, and a lot is self-inflicted). Policy response: Head in the sand Japan’s prime minister says her policies will boost confidence in the yen after U.S. intervention falls short Germany’s Friedrich Merz said the opposition AfD is backed by Russia, without providing evidence. The chancellor accused Moscow of seeking to divide the country Amazon seeks to offload $8 billion of Nvidia chips to investors, FT reports | Reuters US won't 'sit there and take' overproduction from China: USTR Greer - Nikkei Asia France: Student protests over conditions at French high schools fuel political clashes French bond spreads widen as OAT market pressure intensifies EU nations to hold emergency meeting on soaring diesel prices amid US pressure - CNA Brazil election: U.S.-China rivalry and government debt loom large Barchart on X: "Investors dumped the BlackRock Mortgage Bond ETF last month at the fastest pace in history, surpassing the Global Financial Crisis and Covid 🤯 👀 https://t.co/jZwH2o54ro" / X Barchart on X: "Small Cap Stocks $IWM - It's Now or Never 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/wKUqKSdlOS" / X CNBC Daily Open: Bond yield whiplash grips global economy ‘Welcome back,’ says Macron, as British PM opens door to EU return | The Straits Times No 10 gathering evidence on public support for UK rejoining EU | Brexit | The Guardian Andy Burnham's 'big gamble' to put London back at heart of Europe after Brexit blunder | The Standard Bargain Britain lures foreign buyers as hostile takeovers surge Merz accuses Russia of supporting Germany's far-right AfD | RBC-Ukraine Japan: Yen valuation is a problem, intervention efforts disappoint Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes | Reuters South Korean President Lee warns of 'measures' against Ukraine Bond markets give France a whacking for fiscal irresponsibility Public workers in France strike over pay as student protests turn violent | Protests News | Al Jazeera Sir Alex Ferguson on brain haemorrhage and games that shaped his life - BBC Sport Make it count, League 2, management, board, coaches, player's agents, they all knew all or part of it... it's been going for over 10years, and a lot more over this summer again! ‘Wrongdoing’ at Manchester City should lead to ‘appropriate consequences’, says Downing Street | ITV News Granada Swiss gas sector views coming winter with concern - SWI swissinfo.ch

Burnham clears path to EU summit with post-Brexit breakthrough. UK and Brussels to go ahead with key November meeting after agreeing to kick talks on industrial subsidies into next year - we have been long/positive on GBP for a few months (on valuation), let's see how far we can go now on this confirmation #GBP #GBPCHF (he's probably setting up an election for middle of next year...) Markets : FTC opens sweeping probe of Anthropic, OpenAI and other super SI - intelligence models - NY Post (why do you think they all met with Trump day before..), Almost 60% of S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average, the weakest market breadth since May 2025, stocks boosted by MICRON results last night, BOJ debated more rate hikes, scope for faster move at Sept meeting >> UST rates did NOT stay down long after weak PCE yesterday !.. USD back on firmer side, GBP shoudl continue to be underpinned by EU talks and Summit in Nov..!, risk overall should or could well have a correction lower and struggle in Q4 (yields beginning to seriously bite, debt repriced -Oracle and many others >>> Global bond sell-off deepens-FT-Thread and chart below) Iran says it receives US response to latest proposal | Iran said it had received a US response to its latest proposal to resurrect the ​collapsed ceasefire in the Gulf, days after President Donald Trump said he had rejected it, Bank of England’s Taylor: No need for interest rate hike PGIM caps AI-related debt exposure at 15% in CLOs, signalling institutional caution on tech lending..! ...credit warnings leading equity markets ... Gold is negatively affected by “real rates”, but that mantra falls apart if rates rise enough to crush a government’s ability to pay the interest on its debts without printing enormous amounts of fiat. I’ll dare to suggest that 7% is the number where the Gold-rates mantra dies & a new debt-rates mantra comes to life. Some pundits are currently suggesting that AI brings an existential threat to humanity. That’s theoretically possible, but what’s much clearer is that 7%-10% rates are an existential threat to most governments of the world. ~ Stewart Thomson THIS ANTHROPIC IPO IS THE MOST DANGEROUS DEAL I'VE SEEN IN MY 45-YEAR CAREER / Thread (FWIW couldn't agree more..), Anthropic's IPO pitch embraces AI's promise and peril Russia warns NATO it could use nuclear weapons over Kaliningrad Burnham clears path to EU summit with post-Brexit breakthrough US goods trade deficit widens sharply in August | Reuters Bank of England's Taylor: No need for interest rate hike Bank of England Warns $450 Billion AI Debt Surge Could Trigger Financial Market Crisis - The420.in Financial Times on X: "Global government bond markets came under renewed pressure as yields in Japan and Australia approached multi-decade highs following a sell-off that pushed US Treasuries to their worst month in four years. https://t.co/pv8xHPwXW4 https://t.co/78rm4UFrAI" / X BOJ Shifts Policy Focus to Anchoring 2% Inflation After September Rate Hike | MarketScreener Rubio ordered Iranian delegation to leave the country after negotiations stalled Fed's Kashkari says inflation is 'still too high' even after softer-than-expected PCE data China–Taiwan Invasion Timeline | Stephen M. Walker II Russia warns NATO over Kaliningrad nuclear weapons | AnewZ PGIM caps AI-related debt exposure at 15% in CLOs, signaling institutional caution on tech lending Micron (MU) Q4 earnings report 2026 Clash Report on X: "French President Macron: Welcome back, if the British want to return. The British have always been demanding partners, but our bilateral relations have continued on issues such as defense, security, immigration and many strategic matters. I think it would be a good decision, https://t.co/FEtCFs5vhT" / X George Noble on X: "THIS ANTHROPIC IPO IS THE MOST DANGEROUS DEAL I'VE SEEN IN MY 45-YEAR CAREER And its own IPO filing tells you why: The prospectus warns that its AI models could resist being shut down and could hide or manipulate information. If you run security at a big bank, that's the last https://t.co/U0ZSIZljfr" / X

Markets : UK won't rejoin (it's impossible really) but will get closer #GBPCHF hiher, Oil Prices and Treasury Yields are now the most correlated in 36 years (chart), Tesla cuts China prices for the 2nd time in 20 days, 'No need for urgency': New York Fed's Williams squashes notion of an October rate hike, Trump Rejects AI Safety Laws After Meeting Industry Titans, Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners, France borrowing costs rise as Vanguard warns of degrading credit >>> quarter-end flows all but done, Sep Fixed Income selloff 'overdone' short-term, USD peaks short-term (USDJPY stays offered), GOLD held $4100 where it should have for the bulls, correlation between crude and Fixed income is at all time highs, it IS the kex to inflation and Bonds, #GBP UK Prime Minister says Britain should consider rejoining the EU (they will look-consider all options, clever way to go about it, get people to give theri say, actually a pretty good speech yesterday, oneof the best TBH Iran Condemns Netanyahu’s UAE Visit, Warns of Consequences - Iranians stagger under soaring costs of seven months of war | Iran's leaders may radiate bullishness, but life is becoming ever tougher for ordinary citizens unable to afford basic necessities or rent ​as a US blockade cuts oil exports Berlin property seizure threat deepens pressure on real estate stocks Top buyer of U.S. debt caught up in Iran sanctions case. Lawmakers raise concerns over Iran's use of USDT to bypass sanctions...can't make this up.. Tether faces Senate probe as Iran-Linked wallets put USDT under scrutiny, shut it down risk, as so heavily linked to Lutnick/Kantor etc '''widely used as a major money transfer tool in Iran’s informal banking sector'''.. shocking really, yet hardly surprising! Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “Poland is facing very difficult weeks and months ahead due to increasing aggressive Russian actions, our security services are doing everything in their power to stop actions expanding to Polish territory.” China tax crackdown tightens pressure on billionaires, can't hide so easily anymore, western billionaires getting worried WSJ: The U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have grown more effective at blocking or evading Iranian attacks, letting more tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's ability to choke off oil flows, and to use that threat as leverage in talks with Washington, is eroding. The concern is that Tehran turns to military escalation to strengthen its hand Gold getting hit during a full-blown bond crisis is short-term noise. Algorithmic systems auto sell gold on rising yields. They can't distinguish between yields rising on growth optimism versus yields rising on a crisis of confidence Burnham opens door to rejoining EU as he takes aim at Brexit - latest Tether Faces Senate Probe as Iran-Linked Wallets Put USDT Under Scrutiny - Bitcoin Foundation Berlin property seizure threat deepens pressure on real estate stocks Madness.. France borrowing costs rise as Vanguard warns of degrading credit 'No need for urgency': New York Fed's Williams squashes notion of an October rate hike Hedge funds hold a record share of the $30 trillion Treasury market. What could go wrong? Gas: Shell backs $23 billion LNG Canada expansion in boost to Carney EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners | Reuters UK Stock Market News: Saga, Greggs, Future Top buyer of U.S. debt caught up in Iran sanctions case - TheStreet Crypto: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news, advice, analysis and more Barchart on X: "Oil Prices and Treasury Yields are now the most correlated in 36 years 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/rpZU9F1NSO" / X Mario Nawfal on X: "🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf dared the whole Gulf to keep selling oil without Iran. "Both the Americans and other countries should know that in a region where we don't sell oil, no one will sell oil, and if our security is not ensured, no" / X Swiss Alpine solar farms struggle to deliver on their promise - SWI swissinfo.ch China tax crackdown tightens pressure on billionaires

Markets : Ai leaders meeting trump today, because ?...Anthropic warned of 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO prospectus, so OPENAi followed and scraped new AI model, AND of course.. Nvidia (HAD to come up with something new) share buyback plan gets $150 billion boost >>> AND NASDAQ specs built the largest LONG QQQ futures position since 2017..., US and Iran separately talk with mediators in latest bid to end war | Any further talks are expected to focus on an amended version of a seven-day proposal that Iran presented last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, JPN/U.S coordinating on JPY, RBA hiked as expected (AUD softer), GOLD 'must' hold levels aroun dhere on charts >>> USD firm(er) into quarter-end flows as bonds globally get hit (into Q3 end..), risk mixed to softer, watch QQQ positioning !!.. Germany issues EU budget ultimatum. Berlin and five other capitals tell Brussels to axe ‘hundreds of billions’ in planned spending Japan Finance Minister Reaffirms U.S. Coordination on Yen Stability | Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama agreed in a recent call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to strengthen cooperation in the currency market, saying that “reconfirming this stance at this time holds great significance.” (WSJ) We need a LOT of rain... Water levels in eastern Switzerland fall to record low Sweden faces political deadlock after Andersson gives up attempt to form government Australia’s central bank on Tuesday raised policy rates to 4.6%, the highest level in 15 years, as the country looks to contain inflation stoked by the Middle East conflict Jensen Huang says AI distillation is 'competition.' Scott Bessent has called it 'theft' Anthropic IPO Prospectus Warns of Existential Risks | Trending Topics OpenAI scraps rollout of new AI model over safety concerns Nvidia share buyback plan gets $150 billion boost and Barchart on X: "Speculators have now built the largest long Nasdaq Futures position since 2017 🚨 https://t.co/iynu24E7lw" / X Barchart on X: "Gold $GLD - Make or Break Moment here 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/Z1G7lOIeGW" / X David Zervos will join Scott Bessent's Treasury Department Nvidia's Jensen Huang: AI distillation is competition Australia raises rates to 15-year high as it fights stubborn inflation Germany issues EU budget ultimatum Sweden faces political deadlock after Andersson gives up attempt to form government | Reuters Burnham promises to roll back privatisation with government-backed grid plan | Andy Burnham | The Guardian Julien Bittel, CFA on X: "Jeff Gundlach laid out the Fed's dilemma this week: Hike, and the interest bill on all that short-dated debt balloons. Cut, and inflation reignites. He’s right. But I think it’s the wrong framing, and I haven’t seen anyone unpack this properly yet in response. Here’s my take… https://t.co/FipKapLoN9" / X FWIW.. agree with a lot of it... '''the main issue is OIL, and Warsh told Bessent and Trump about it...'' on to you DC.. Water levels in eastern Switzerland fall to record low - SWI swissinfo.ch Tanner-Crash: Lindt&Sprüngli von Bigboss kollabiert – Inside Paradeplatz Trucking industry hit by 16 Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 filings - TheStreet

Bon weekend ! Markets : Global yields higher overall (breathing space overnight), 2year UST just shy of 5%, 30's heading for 6% (at some point investors will be attracted by yields, but not yet), Oracle sent a “force majeure” notice to the developer of its data center project in New Mexico, Trump-Xi meeting: AI, Taiwan, trade and diplomacy take centre stage, Watch European Bank Stocks on report UBS mulling foreign merger (more threats..to the swiss government and tax payers..just accept it UBS.!!..) >>> equity markets holding up well given higher global yields (specific 'leveraged' companies getting hit though-as they should), USD has been firmer this following front end UST's, mr market could do with a softer crude, lets see what Iran, US, Israel and Saudi's can accept as a deal...or not WHY the SURGE in UST yields (and global yields) should be less surprising than many making it to be/Thread #USDJPY - The fact that even Trump is concerned about the yen is telling. He reportedly told Japan’s prime minister personally that he was worried about the currency, while further intervention by Treasury Secretary Bessent may be on the way. The priority appears to be (IS..).. doing whatever is necessary to prevent Japan from selling U.S. Treasuries to support the yen Saudi Arabia has sold almost 100mio barrels of oil to Asian buyers since the middle of last week, according to traders familiar with the matter, helping to avert a supply crunch Hyundai expected to outsell Ford in third quarter as Detroit automakers lack hybrids Everyone starting to shout about it slowly but surely, but the rise in global yields should should not have caught markets off guard, it hasn't caught us and our clients off guard, this is a theme we've long talked about... Government and corporate borrowing plans—especially in the technology sector—were well signalled, the Federal Reserve had indicated continued economic strength, and the declining capacity of traditional Treasury buyers was already well documented. Uncertainty over the duration of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict has added further pressure. What appears to have amplified the move is psychological 'CB anchoring'': remember the 'temporary' inflation calls from central bankers...good times.... after more than a decade of artificially suppressed yields following the 2008 financial crisis, investors have become conditioned to rates that were exceptionally low and are struggling to adjust to a more normal environment Fed’s Williams: 'Reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-end Fed’s Paulson joins chorus of policymakers predicting more rate increases ahead Fed's Hammack warns inflation pressures remain tilted to upside | Reuters Swiss central bank holds interest rate at 0 percent Riksbank holds policy rate at 1.75%: Can USD/SEK hold kr9.82 support? ECB's Schnabel quits to join IMF, setting in motion a board reshuffle - AOL Iran awaiting response from Trump on proposal to open strait of Hormuz in six days - AOL Yemen tells UN that Houthi moves on key strait threaten global economy | AP News Trump-Xi meeting: AI, Taiwan, trade and diplomacy take centre stage as Chinese President visits White House, 5 key takeaways China's first lady Peng Liyuan turns soft power on US audience | Reuters Japan PM says she had 'timely' discussion with Trump ahead of his Xi summit Japan's bond 'falling knife' stalls repatriation rush | Reuters That's what happens when the balance-sheet is so leveraged .. no surprise there... Oracle stock falls on news it sent data center 'force majeure' notice Saudi Arabia Eases Asia Oil Crunch With 100-Million-Barrel Sales Flurry - Bloomberg 'Vicious cycle': Global debt is soaring along with the interest on it Is institutional liquidity driving the latest Bitcoin rally? – The Armchair Trader Trump administration presses China on suspected nuclear tests in confidential talks Hyundai set to outsell Ford in Q3 as Detroit automakers lack hybrids I always disliked giving my name (why?9.. when ordering a coffee.. you ? .. Starbucks is closing hundreds of locations | CNN Business

Markets : diesel fuel crisis incoming, crude prices slightly higher even as Iran ''seems'' to want 'diplomacy' to end the war, strong U.S PMI and a failed UST auction, where foreign demand collapsed 80%.. (read that again).. >>> equity under clear pressure, after recent run-up on ''hope'' from UN meetings, QQQ lead up, and it will lead down as GLOBAL yields head north again! beware this isn't a joke anymore... JGB yields are going parabolic too Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News US says China trade truce extended as Trump welcomes Xi | Xi’s first trip to the US in nearly three years was not expected to deliver major breakthroughs, but Washington and Beijing could extend their 11-month ‌trade truce.US, Iran very good talks | Donald Trump said US officials had “very good Mark Carney : Canada's leader lays out vision for breaking reliance on U.S Trump’s US no longer a reliable ally, warns Belgium in leaked document | Dynamics in Washington ‘are likely to compromise several vital interests’ of Belgium and the EU, says strategy document from foreign ministry Swiss lawmakers vote to back tighter UBS capital rules , and Diesel has never been this expensive in Switzerland (huge problem globally really) US services PMI flash surges to 58.7, blowing past forecasts and signaling robust economic expansion U.S.-China trade truce extended, Bessent says, as Xi begins visit Barchart on X: "Not even one FOMC member sees downside risks to U.S. growth 🚨 This hasn't happened in AT LEAST the last 15 years 👀 https://t.co/7ijP5Tpppc" / X Fed's Barr Calls For More Rate Hikes to Cool Inflation AND... Nic on X: "Wow. Foreign demand for U.S. debt collapsed 80%! - T-bill purchases fell from $250.5B to just $49.4B in a year. - Long-term U.S. debt purchases also fell 46%, from $456B to $246.6B. That's a $410B reversal in foreign demand in just one year. And the U.S. still has to finance https://t.co/P1MCZHtdmS" / X Treasury's 5-Year Auction Hits 20-Year Yield High: What This Means for Bitcoin JGB yields jump as inflation worries resurface | Reuters Oil executives declared a fuel crisis, and diesel agrees - TheStreet Mario Nawfal on X: "🚨🇨🇳🇮🇷 BREAKING: The real story of China's role in the Iran war is worse than Washington admits... 1,300 weapons shipments, missile propellant, and satellite images tied to three dead US soldiers -Iranian customs data shows roughly 1,300 dual-use shipments to the defense https://t.co/zYLv6l5iyb" / X Unemployment rate rises to 4.6% in August | Australian Bureau of Statistics OpenAI agent 'infiltrated' Australian government website, PM says Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S. - The New York Times Could well be, in fact its already under way.. Will exotic fruits soon be grown in Switzerland? - SWI swissinfo.ch Judge temporarily overturns Trump's White House media ban The Council of States Tightens Capital Requirements for UBS Following the CS Debacle Muss Ermotti gehen? – Inside Paradeplatz HSBC shifts board meeting to London amid Middle East travel risks