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SpaceX ... mindboggling numbers...for a company that lost $5bn last year.. THIS IS the liquidity event, the most expensive, biggest IPO ever.. it will be fascinating!!, valuations don't matter, till they eventually do... Iran Update : Marco Rubio sees ‘good signs’ US could reach deal with Iran. Pakistani mediators expected to travel to Tehran as diplomacy to end conflict intensifies, Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month. The crypto transactions took place despite repeated red flags. Binance says it has “zero‑tolerance for illicit activity.”..., Markets : ‘Fast entry’ SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs to ignite Wall St trading frenzy. Passive investors set to dump billions of shares to make way for new stocks, Margin debt is surging into crazy levels (chart available on request), U.S Mortgage Rates hit a 9months high in blow to Prime Buying Season. The 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.51% this week and looks poised to keep rising Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means! (Thread) Jensen Huang says Nvidia has "largely conceded" China's AI chip market to Huawei 'Some good signs' a US-Iran deal to end war could be in sight, Marco Rubio reveals Although.. Supreme leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, sources say | Irish Independent OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic will reshape how investors access artificial intelligence SpaceX IPO: Inside the S-1 filing, potential valuation, and what Elon Musk's empire means for the market Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 on X: "🚨YOU ARE THE EXIT LIQUIDITY You are about to be offered the most expensive IPO in modern history. SpaceX's S-1 just dropped. The headline numbers: - 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion - 2025 net loss: $4.9 billion - Q1 2026: still losing money - Reported IPO valuation target: https://t.co/vaPLoKjsGN" / X Ricardo on X: "Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the https://t.co/zU7TYupLD9" / X Alex Mason 👁△ on X: "🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.7T. That’s 7.2% of the entire Nasdaq. Without being public companies. Without https://t.co/fhFjAMG4R9" / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is an extraordinary document written by the research arm of China's spy agency (the powerful MSS, basically the CIA and the FBI all wrapped in one) that absolutely zero media has picked up on. As far as I can see, I'm the first person to write about it even though it was https://t.co/gwezqfPK0U" / X The document contains perhaps the most authoritative description of where China thinks its relationship with the U.S. stands, and where it’s headed. The title of the report is “The Great Global Transformation and the Path to U.S.–China Coexistence” and I provide a full translation of it in my article, the link of which is at the bottom of this post. To summarize briefly the most important - and, perhaps, surprising - aspect of the document: China's spy agency - the one institution whose entire job is to worry about the U.S. threat - has largely stopped worrying 'Chess Piece’ to ‘Blood Bag’? What Trump-Xi Summit Could Spell for India - The Wire Can copper prices push past historic highs? – The Armchair Trader The 'Boris Johnson trap' Farage risks falling into over £5m gift Elliott Wave International on X: "🚨 Stock valuations have drifted beyond the edge of the financial solar system. The S&P 500’s dividend yield is sitting near its 2000 extreme at just 1.06%, while the S&P 400 Industrials’ price-to-book ratio has reached an all-time high of 8.02. In other words: investors are https://t.co/lhh5nGq1iT" / X Nvidia's impressive earnings fall flat with investors. Has the stock lost its edge?

Iran deal, SpaceX, Ai and crude down, markets loving it Iran update : Trump close to a deal with Iran..., Iran is consolidating control of Hormuz with island checkpoints, diplomatic deals –and sometimes ‘fees’. Iran is enforcing a multi-tiered system for clearing vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has warned against complying with Iran’s controls. Some shippers and governments are taking the risk Markets : Many Fed officials called for the central bank to drop its easing bias and signal its next move may be a rate hike, according to minutes of last month’s meeting, Israel parliament dissolved, China banned NVDA RTX 5090D V2 chip!, SpaceX IPO coming, Gold miners are now doing more share buybacks than at any other point in history >>> markets higher quite easily again, crude sub 100 again, 5pct or so down on Trump taunting a great Iran deal Big Tech software era is over, says top investor James Anderson. Former Baillie Gifford fund manager says spoils of AI war will flow to hardware suppliers French PMIs registered one of the largest drops in output and employment outside covid and the sovereign debt crisis. Inflationary pressures are rising and tighter financial conditions will only make things worse Trump says willing to wait for a few days to get 'right answer' on Iran peace deal - Yahoo News UK Fed April Meeting Minutes Offer Color On Handling Rising Inflation Risks Federal Reserve Board - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2026 BoJ’s Koeda: Core inflation is already near 2% Xi and Putin wrap up talks in Beijing with no final details on gas pipeline - follow live - BBC News The skunk at the party: Jamie Dimon warns about inflation and oil prices spiking at the same time, which historically led to recessions Jeff Bezos says bottom half of earners should pay zero in income taxes ..It was admitting out loud that the people carrying the country on their backs are getting crushed while the system tells them it’s “normal.” Europe markets cautious as flash PMI numbers miss estimates Israel’s parliament has dissolved. Is this the end for Netanyahu? Japan exports rise for eighth month despite supply disruptions | Reuters Revolut receives green light for UK leveraged trading services – The Armchair Trader Mining: More Profitable Than Tech - Tavi Costa The SpaceX IPO filing is filled with AI bets, Starship dreams, and Elon Musk at the center | TechCrunch Nvidia delivered an earnings beat. See the key numbers. BUT...China just added Nvidia's RTX 5090D V2 to its customs banned list. During Jensen Huang's visit. With Trump in town. The chip was designed specifically to meet US export rules. Banned anyway. Beijing is making it clear: the era of Chinese reliance on US tech is over. China banned Nvidia’s gaming chip while CEO Jensen Huang was visiting Beijing with Trump Peak Farage already, and he has to answer questions now about that £5mio 'donation' or bribe depending on who you ask.. The Daily Britain on X: "21 kicked out. 28 defected. 39 resigned. 5 suspended. 1 disqualified. 5 lost seats. That's approximately 99 Reform UK councillors and representatives who have left the party. 22 of them since the local elections just two weeks ago. The party claims "some of the strongest https://t.co/ROa7yG7ZFk" / X

It's NVDA earnings time after the bell again Iran update : Trump appears to be trying to shift attention from Iran to Cuba (you just know its when not if), NATO may send naval forces to protect Strait of Hormuz oil route amid US-Iran tensions, crude softer overnight though, welcome ! And in true authoritarian style... Donald Trump and sons granted ‘forever’ immunity from existing tax audits Justice department deal comes day after government set up $1.8bn fund to pay president’s allies hit by alleged ‘lawfare’ Markets : Global M2 money supply has reached $141T in 2026, up 9.3%, in other words your savings just got diluted by 9.3% in one year (hence most asset prices higher - not all but most), Japanese government bond yields are BREAKING RECORDS across the curve (Thread-chart), Biggest risk to stocks says BofA: a "second wave" of inflation, 30-year TIPS now yielding nearly 3% real, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19% >>>> WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? not AI stocks, nor real estate...but BONDS ... "The earnings outlook is more dependent on a few stocks than ever before" --BofA the top 5 cos make up around a quarter of S&P 500 earnings Too euphoric Goldman Sachs-“Market pricing of US growth is beyond even our 2027 forecasts" (all about the money supply, big beautiful deal-free money.. checks..) Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia, well.. Jackson Pollock painting sells for record $181m at auction Jeffrey Currie : Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the “Munificent 7”. Who are they? Donald Trump and sons granted ‘forever’ immunity from existing tax audits #GOLD Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold has settled into a relatively narrow USD 4,500-4,590 Fibonacci retracement band and, more broadly, remains trapped between two moving averages: the 200-day moving average near USD 4,355 on the downside and the 50-day moving average around USD 4,705 on the upside. The https://t.co/9rTrZTWzt1" / X The Case for Locking In 3% Real Returns - by Bob Elliott The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread) https://t.co/Yyi1R00DPV" / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🔴 Japanese government bond yields are BREAKING RECORDS across the curve: The 40-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to 4.39%, the highest since this maturity was introduced in 2007. The 30-year yield has surged to 4.15%, the highest since its debut in 1999 while the https://t.co/bQea5q5npN" / X Trump’s China Opening and Japan’s Taiwan Anxiety – The Diplomat NATO Weighing Naval Deployment in Strait of Hormuz Amid US-Iran Tensions: Report | Mathrubhumi English UK growth forecast upgraded by IMF but 'risks' remain Starmer must go before next election, say Labour-backing unions Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia – POLITICO ...Angela bears major responsibility for Europe’s post‑2022 economic mess: she shut nuclear, underinvested in renewables, and left Germany dangerously reliant on Russian gas. That dependence was then weaponised by Moscow, turning a long‑running policy error into a self‑inflicted strategic disaster.... James Wood 武杰士 on X: "🇨🇳 Xi Jinping doesn’t just “fight” corruption: For over 13 years he’s waged total war on it 💪 Millions of officials investigated, tens of thousands punished, “tigers” at the very top dragged down without mercy. No one, not even close allies or family, was considered off-limits. https://t.co/opCxr2xvnJ" / X Ex-Samsung Chip Boss Says China's DRAM Blitz Could Crush The 414% DDR5 Price Spike Within A Year Jackson Pollock painting sells for record $181m at US auction Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ on X: "Everybody talks about the Magnificent 7, but my focus is on the “Munificent 7”. Who are they? They are oil companies and asset-heavy businesses generating real free cash flow yields in an AI sector that is trying to achieve breakout despite increasing constraints by energy, https://t.co/87xbNHiGuy" / X

Iran update : Donald Trump said he called off a strike on Iran planned for Tuesday after an appeal by the leaders of Persian Gulf allies, who called for more time to pursue a diplomatic resolution. “I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday evening, hours after his announcement in a social media post, crude is still 105+.. Trump reportedly paused additional strikes on Iran partly over Pentagon concerns that Tehran was becoming more effective at tracking U.S. air operations and improving its air defenses - NYT... TACO supreme... Markets : and this matters now...'G7 government bond yields at highest levels since 2004', JGB 30's now 4.15, UST's 5.15% (keep spending and increase debt?.. #bondvigilane out in force now.. )..., equity markets rallied again into the close as Trump TACO'ed - what else, WTI still $109 though..., yields now really going to hurt risk overall, let alone if bonds have a 'free fall' Xi Jinping REFUSED to meet with any billionaire CEO’s Trump brought along to China Rubio just said something every investor with global exposure needs to hear. China has a plan. They believe they will surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. And they are executing on that plan IMF staff: UK government must stay course on deficit reduction, given market pressures and greater implementation risks Putin is traveling to Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow Crude : The U.S. injected ~9.9 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market last week. That’s a record high flow of >1.4 million barrels a day. It’s the second consecutive SPR record high flow rate And that's really beginning to matter for risk in general dailyspark-2026-05-17.pdf 'G7 government bond yields at highest levels since 2004' / Apollo Driven by : 1) renewed inflationary pressure from elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supply, 2) persistently large government deficits requiring ever-increasing bond issuance, 3) the end of central bank quantitative easing with the Fed balance sheet potentially shrinking, and 4) investors demanding higher term premiums and inflation premiums amid deglobalization and increased geopolitical fragmentation. Trump says he's postponing Iran attack at Middle East leaders' request #JPY Japan ready to act on FX volatility, mindful of US bond market impact | Reuters RBA Minutes: Members see case for rate hike as inflation expectations risk grows Meta Is Reportedly 'Reassigning' 7,000 Employees To AI-Focused Roles Rubio warns America must 'stay ahead of the curve' as China works to surpass the US with stolen tech - AOL Japan economy grows at annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, beating expectations Unemployment back up as UK job vacancies fall US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries | Reuters :-) Middle Eastern Affairs on X: "🚨Trump: I think that countries like Japan and China have neither the courage nor the will to open the Strait of Hormuz.” China:The Strait of Hormuz was already open before the war. You are the ones who created the war out of nothing and closed the strait to the rest of the https://t.co/iDpV4d2dj8" / X

Trump - Xi meeting, noting major agreed, yet anyway, on Taiwan, Iran, trade, the next few days-week will be the tell Iran update : Washington's $40 billion Hormuz insurance fix: zero takers, Iran is fully prepared to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain if the UAE attempts to invade and seize Iranian-controlled islands in the Persian Gulf, Three drones reached the Arab world's only nuclear power plant Sunday, Trump is already openly declaring that the Iranians should fear what is Right now (threats on Truth social), Markets : the 3y high on U.S CPI last week eventually tipped risk over with UST 10y yields breaking well above 4.5% previous tops - now 4.62%, in reality all FI sold off, and equity eventually duly followed, with little or no great news out of China meeting, WTI crude trades $105+ too, China retail sales softer >>> given Iran situation still totally unclear (WTI 105+), Fixed Income breaking down (yields higher), even after the little sell-off in risk late last week, it would not be too surprising risk to struggle further ion days-weeks ahead, valuations etc etc, USDJPY testing BoJ-Bessent up closer to 160JPY again, PM's had a rocky week, selling off with risk on Thursday-Friday again, back to decent levels for new longs Two months after Trump announced that the US would provide insurance to ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the programme has not provided a single dollar of cover Japan PM looks to mull extra budget for FY 2026 to ease oil price impact, more debt! UK leadership hopeful Streeting calls Brexit a 'catastrophic mistake', Labour party making a real mess of all this, losing credibility ! Goldman Sachs on a potential large sell-off in stocks soon: "Although we agree that the risks have fallen, the prospect of more adverse outcomes is still very real, and we think that deeper downside tail is underpriced. There is a challenging circularity here too: although markets are looking through any temporary disruptions, it may also be that another bout of market worry is needed to force an agreement that allows oil flows to resume. The longer we go without a clear peace agreement and a convincing reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the more likely we are to revisit that risk as energy product shortages become clearer." Trump-Xi 2026 Meeting: What Was Really Discussed? UAE reports drone strike near Abu Dhabi nuclear power plant Washington's $40 billion Hormuz insurance fix: zero takers | Insurance Business Large-scale Ukrainian drone barrage kills four in Russia BoE should not be ‘trigger happy’ on rates, says top official Andy Burnham plays down rejoining EU after Wes Streeting advocates Brexit reversal Japan PM looks to mull extra budget for FY 2026 to ease oil price impact China's economy loses steam in April as retail sales hit 40-month low Ryanair CFO warns weaker European carriers may not survive jet fuel crunch Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 NYT: "President Trump departed Beijing on Friday, touting trade deals to sell American-made airplanes, farm goods and other products, the signature outcome of his two-day summit with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader." https://t.co/wxpqCVhfrC" / X Top civil servant held nuclear talks with ‘front’ for Chinese spy agency Why are bond market investors worried about Andy Burnham? – The Armchair Trader Spain’s conservatives lose majority in Andalusia, making far-right deal likely – POLITICO Switzerland-London direct train service gets support from French operators - SWI swissinfo.ch

Iran update : ALL aboard....including Jensen!...Trump on Iran: We're not going to rush anything. "We don't have to rush anything. We have a blockade which allows them no money. It's a very simple thing: we cannot let them have a nuclear weapon — because they'd use it." >>> CHINA will push for Trump to take a deal with Iran (China could guaranty nuclear material removal, 10y pause etc, lifting sanctions, and Iran open the Strait (with charges?)... And Trump wants rare earth, techs etc and many other things with all his CEO's present (see list below, mindboggling..BUT no China political experts..) >>> On the eve of the Xi-Trump summit, the People’s Daily published a commentary titled: “China-US Relations Cannot Return to the Past, but They Can Embrace a Better Future.”... Markets : We are two weeks from oil shortages and demand rationing according to BBG, US House Lawmakers are introducing a bill to ban Chinese vehicles in the US. (just ahead of meeting Xi tomorrow, great idea..), UK political storm, US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The strength of the Japanese economy (NIKKEI..?..)will be reflected in the FX rate, 10y JGB yields 2.58% highest for 25+ years (pushing other yields in Asia EMG higher, and their currencies weaker... >>> soonest Jensen was confirmed going to China, QQQ bounced off lows pretty easily yesterday!, there are reports that China is now selling high-performance solar panels (which use silver) at higher prices, up around 30%!, U.S CPI highest in 3 years (10's UST 4.46% again.. ALL FI softer-yields higher..)...and Crude is still over $100 Indian government warns country only has 60 days of crude oil reserves left China completes installation of world’s largest single-rotor floating wind turbine, now this is fabulous, you can literally float it where you need it along the sea.., no land use etc etc sounds great and friendly on the environment Steve Rosenberg : “Something rather unusual is happening right now inside Russia.” Chicago Board of Trade wheat and K.C. wheat futures climbed by their daily trading limits on Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected the nation's harvest will drop to the lowest level since 1972 >>> #inflation Keir Starmer latest: PM to meet Streeting at No 10 ahead of King's Speech - BBC News India hikes bullion import duties to arrest rupee slide Shanghai Macro Strategist on X: "On the eve of the Xi-Trump summit, the People’s Daily published a commentary titled: “China-US Relations Cannot Return to the Past, but They Can Embrace a Better Future.” In my view, this piece reflects Beijing’s current official posture toward the US-China relationship. Key https://t.co/n0eAFEDfyK" / X On the eve of the Trump-Xi summit, some interesting activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with a Chinese-linked oil tanker making the crossing (via the Iranian new lanes). If the Yuan Hua Hu VLCC completes the crossing (she has gone dark now), it would be the 3rd Chinese oil tanker to make it through since the war started. The tanker carries 2m barrels of Iraqi oil. This is absolutely insane. President Trump is currently flying to China with all of the following people to request "deals" with China's President Xi: 1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO 2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO 3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO 4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO 5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO 7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO 8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO 9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO 10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO 11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO 12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO President >>>>> Trump also says there are "many other" CEOs joining him on the trip who have not yet been disclosed. Never in history has such a trip even remotely near this scale and caliber occurred. This Trump-Xi meeting is far bigger than most realize. Eric Nuttall: We’re weeks away from rationing oil demand as prices rise China completes installation of world’s largest single-rotor floating wind turbine CPI surged in April as inflation soars to highest level in almost 3 years Steve Rosenberg on X: "“Something rather unusual is happening right now inside Russia.” My dispatch for BBC Radio’s From Our Own Correspondent. @BBCRadio4 @BBCSounds @bbcworldservice https://t.co/YU2aeHFuzD" / X STRAIT CLOSURE SHOCK LIMITED: GOLDMAN SEES ONLY MODERATE GLOBAL DAMAGE Goldman Sachs says the 10-week Strait of Hormuz closure has caused only moderate global economic disruption so far. Chief economist Jan Hatzius cites three key reasons: oil prices didn’t spike as feared due to high inventories and policy expectations; fuel shortages were eased by demand shifts like renewables and reduced travel; and strong fiscal support, the AI boom, and easy financial conditions helped cushion the impact. Goldman expects oil to stay stable near term, with Brent potentially easing toward $90 by year-end under a gradual reopening scenario. The bank slightly lowered U.S. recession risk to 25%, but warns risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer support, higher energy costs, slower wage growth, and low savings levels. JP Morgan on oil prices/Strait of Hormuz: "A core assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another. Our base case envisions the Strait reopens in June—anchored on June 1 for simplicity—following a clear and credible announcement ratified and confirmed by both sides, such as a statement from the UN Security Council." Hedge funds bet on biofuels to profit from Iran oil price shock Zack Polanski’s boat, council tax, and electoral law Politics UK on X: "🚨 NEW: Keir Starmer has announced some of the Bills in the King’s Speech tomorrow to end "the status quo" - Legislation to improve UK trade and investment ties with the EU - Energy Independence Bill to speed up clean energy projects and expand grid infrastructure - New" / X Gold Outlook: a volatile journey to a new base – The Armchair Trader

Iran updates : Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support', Oil climbed as Donald Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest peace offer, calling it a “piece of garbage” he “didn’t even finish reading.” Separately, the WSJ reported that the UAE had been secretly carrying out attacks on Iran Markets : UK's Starmer in stormy waters #GBP #GILTS, Bessent vows 'constant and robust' US, Japan coordination on FX, he is in JPN now (and #USDJPY rallies back to the highs.. will have to walk the walk..or else..), BoJ minutes (debated need to raise rates soon..), Saudi Aramco warns fuel stocks heading for ‘critically low levels’, The White House said Trump will meet Xi Jinping in Beijing at 10:15 a.m. local time Thursday, The 40% bubble concentration rule just triggered for the first time since the dot-com crash (BoA chart available on request) >>> EU markets off a little on crude prices, UK markets struggling on Starmer's leadership likely challenge, markets may underestimate how long crude prices stay high for longer, FI lower, yields higher on higher crude prices (UK Gilts a little more than the rest of FI) GOLD : In 1967, Indira Gandhi appealed to Indians: “Don’t buy Gold.”, what followed?.. Coming in other parts of the world ? A top Korean policymaker, presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom, said the nation should pay citizens a “dividend” using taxes on AI profits, the benchmark equity index Kospi fell as much as 5.1% Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser: Energy supply shock is the largest ever experienced, ''If the current disruptions continue at this rate, market will lose around 100 million barrels of oil every week the Strait remains closed'' Goldman and BofA are the latest in a growing cohort of Wall Street banks pushing back their Fed rate-cut forecasts to at least the end of the year, citing strong jobs data and inflation concerns What's going on? After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains Warren Buffett the greatest investor in history just repeated himself. 1999: "Euphoria is the enemy" Walked away from the rally. Result: dot-com crash. Down 75% >>>> 2026: "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." $400B in cash. Zero purchases. Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support' Live update: Frustrated Trump more seriously thinking of restarting combat operations in Iran, sources say | CNN Saudi Aramco warns fuel stocks heading for ‘critically low levels’ Bessent vows 'constant and robust' US, Japan coordination on FX | Reuters Britain's Starmer faces calls to step down | AP News It’s always easier for MPs to pin the blame on the leader – or Trump, or the energy crisis and inflation, or two decades of neglect of UK infrastructure – than to look at themselves. The current bout of hysteria is just making things worse for Labour, whoever ends up in charge; I honestly don’t see what is supposed to change. This supposedly grand plan fronted by Catherine West and a few others looks, at best, badly thought through, when what’s really needed is a bit of calm with the election still a long way off and a new legislative programme coming. On Europe, I agree his approach is pretty incoherent and the speech was a snooze; unless you’re willing to rethink the basic “red lines”, it all feels badly executed. MPs are there to govern, not to act like pundits whipping up a frenzy – but that’s very much the UK way, in most parties, more football-manager drama styled than serious politics, UK labor MP's more worried about their future re-election than the country.. (same goes for other parties btw..) Putin signals Ukraine war nearing end, names Schröder as mediator getting weaker, calling for a stop to the war, and help from Trump.. Europe Defender 🇪🇺🇺🇦 on X: "The war is not winnable for Russia, and it's turning into a demographic catastrophe. Russia suffered 352,000 dead at the end of 2025. By now we are easily at 400,000 dead. That is 1% of the male Russian fighting age population of roughly 40 million. Another 2% are crippled and https://t.co/oaw75FVCQZ" / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "What's going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment? After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see https://t.co/FkD2W7fMS7), you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal https://t.co/VBtF4oD4OR" / X Spain withdraws from Eurovision 2026 Elon Musk’s Grok Loses Users This Year As Rivals Claude, Gemini Rise Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy on X: "In 1967, Indira Gandhi appealed to Indians: “Don’t buy Gold.” The reason was that India’s foreign exchange position was under stress, imports were becoming difficult, and the currency system needed people to show “national discipline.” But what followed? One of the biggest https://t.co/M3aDzJau07" / X The Market’s Feedback Loop Will Self-Destruct

Iran update : Day 73 : no peace and only very little oil, Trump & Xi meeting this week key, Trump heading there with NO Iran deal whatsoever (all permutation possible..flow of crude vs rare earth, semis, infl, trade etc), Trump Calls Iran Response to U.S. Proposal 'Totally Unacceptable', he's effectively begging Iran for a deal..., Tehran's lengthy response on setting a framework for talks didn't resolve the U.S. demand for commitments in advance on its nuclear program. (WSJ) => Oil prices climb again as Washington and Tehran fail to agree on terms to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz, Trump says he ‘might’ move US troops to Poland from Germany >>> extraordinary article in the Atlantic... Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war. Markets : Crude up 4%, as Trump rejects Iran's peace proposal, Top 10 Companies Account for 34% of Profits in the S&P 500, Citadel: Only 22% of names in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index itself over the last 30D, reaching 30Y lows, UK politics heating up (Starmer speech today, Gordon Brown back, Harbone's cash to Farage..!), Modi asks Indians to stop buying gold, Absolute meltdown of Trump on Truth Social Morgan Stanley sees capital spending by the five largest AI hyperscalers topping $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next year. At 3.3% of gross domestic product, next year’s figure would exceed projected spending on national defense >>> markets strongly believe the 'war' will find a peaceful solution, JPY a little weaker on crude prices higher, BoJ-MOF need to step in again, IF...they are serious, or it'll come back in their face Putin says he thinks Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end. The Russian president's remarks came just hours after he had vowed victory in Ukraine at Moscow's most ‌scaled-back Victory Day parade in years Checkmate in Iran - The Atlantic Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war. >>> As a reminder Bob Kagan is: - The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat) - A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself... Iran replies to US proposal to end war, Trump finds response ‘unacceptable’ | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera Trump to discuss Iran with Xi Jinping during China visit: Officials | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeera Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases France-UK joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz | France in the United Kingdom Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warns Iran war is 'not over' unless uranium removed | The National Javier Blas on X: "MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away. The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be shortlived. https://t.co/dN2bRQ4GEM" / X Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute meltdown of Trump on Truth Social. Donald Trump openly confesses he expects the Supreme Court to act as his obedient cartel, crying that Justices he appointed lack blind loyalty and threatening to pack the court himself. The US President is completely unhinged. https://t.co/KBmbUFG8fK" / X Putin says he thinks Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end | Reuters ECB's Lagarde Says June Rate Decision Clouded by'Massive Uncertainty' | Forex Factory Gordon Brown returns to Number 10 as global finance envoy Which Labour MPs are calling for Starmer to go - and who is still backing PM? - LabourList The Road to Resignation: A study of British Prime Ministers – Blonde Money Wil Starmer go, won't he.. Modi asks Indians to stop buying gold, hitting jewellery stocks - The Business Times ‘Nigel is mad to accept his money’: who is Christopher Harborne, the mystery billionaire bankrolling Reform? | Reform UK | The Guardian AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy - WSJ Why Gen Z is abandoning Beijing for greener fields elsewhere in China | South China Morning Post Theft of luxury cars rises sharply in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Growing financial strain hits Swiss middle class - SWI swissinfo.ch University Hospital Zurich confirms serious errors in heart surgery - SWI swissinfo.ch

Iran update : The U.S. military said Thursday that Iran launched missiles, drones and small-boat attacks at U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and that the U.S. responded by intercepting the threats and striking Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks, Trump says ceasefire still in effect after US and Iran clash. UAE intercepts Iranian drones and missiles as tensions escalate, ''Pentagon in disarray'' overheard many times in media >>> the BIG risk remains that Iran doesn't bow to U.S demands and the strait stays close for longer.. as much as we all hope it won't happen..it's about planning for the worse and hoping for the best! markets have been a little too euphoriac on the back of Trump's tweets via Axios.. Markets : Norges hiked (protracted inflation and cloudy price outlook), US Treasury Secretary Bessent to visit Japan ahead of China Summit, focus on FX #USDJPY and Geopolitics, EU to Trump: A Deal Is a Deal, PTJ says US is late to regulating AI: 'We should have already done it', Donald Trump’s 10 per cent global tariffs have been ruled illegal by a US court, striking a fresh blow to him, BoJ needs to step in again (IF they want to be serious about JPY - need to move on rates too..NIKKEI has DOUBLED! since the tariffs lows last year..) Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked) Russia, Ukraine trade major attacks ahead of Moscow's Victory Day celebrations The Norges Bank became the 3rd G10 central bank to hike rates in this cycle after the BoJ and the RBA, U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing - Bloomberg The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in #GOLD, 18th straight month of buying China-EU investment deal should stay in ‘deep freezer’, outgoing trade chief warns “There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” – John Adams, U.S debt is now over total GDP.. (1st time since post war mid 40's..) US Senators Just put Trump’s Son-in-Law Jared Kushner under Investigation for getting Billions From Middle East While Shaping U.S. Foreign Policy...about time! The U.S. Treasury will likely have borrowed more than $2 trillion by the end of the fiscal year—a figure described as “beyond scary” by budget hawks UK local elections, you are going to hear a lot about 'Reform' being a national party, it isn't ! they doing well in areas that voted strongly for Brexit, and not very well that voted remain (from the excellent John Curtis) Ten years of Brexit: How have UK equities and the pound performed? | Euronews What a great success this has been! good grief.. 10 years after Brexit: • FTSE 100: +62% • S&P 500: +253% • DAX (Germany): +151% Pound down 10% vs dollar, 12% vs euro £160 billion+ pulled out of UK equity funds. Brexit didn’t cause every problem but it made Britain a chronically underperforming investment destination >>>>>No wonder 59% want to rejoin......... Trump threatens 'much higher' tariffs on EU by 4 of July Norges Bank hikes and keeps guidance hawkish | articles | ING THINK Trump says US-Iran peace proposal is ‘more than a one-page offer’ claims Iran will hand over enriched Uranium Russia, Ukraine trade major attacks ahead of Moscow's Victory Day celebrations - TRT World ‘This is just disarray’: alarm inside Pentagon after Hegseth staff purges | US military | The Guardian Paul Tudor Jones says US is late to regulating AI: 'We should have already done it' Election results 2026 live: Early English council results show Reform gains and Labour losses as counting yet to begin in Scotland and Wales - BBC News Treasury expected to borrow $2 trillion this year—more than $166 billion every month | Fortune Ed Conway on X: "📈SHALE REVOLUTION The world just changed... A few months ago there was a watershed moment. Few noticed it at the time. But it could shape geopolitics for decades. My primer on how America became energy independent (in statistical terms) and what it means for the rest of us👇 https://t.co/JofFBjmxFN" / X China-EU investment deal should stay in ‘deep freezer’, outgoing trade chief warns | South China Morning Post You just can't make this stuff up... Kash Patel’s Personalized Bourbon Stash - The Atlantic Crypto IPOs win over Wall Street, but not Main Street – The Armchair Trader Whirlpool earnings were so bad it suspended its dividend Investors taking a bath! Toyota fourth-quarter profit misses by wide margin as U.S. tariffs drive 49% slump a reminder that finance has really gone mad ... yeps..Jesus may come back this year - it's worth a shot !? or is it 🙂 Polymarket on X: "BREAKING: JESUS CHRIST RETURNING THIS YEAR? 4% chance. The odds have risen." / X

Iran updates : ...UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman denied Trump's access to Airspace/bases for the Project Freedom... that's WHY he TACO'ed.. (lost credibility long ago..), Trump is desperate to wrap up a deal with Iran BEFORE is visit to Beijing on 14-15 Mai, ongoing war puts Trump in a constrained position with Xi..., Iran, U.S. move closer on proposal to restart talks, mediators (China basically..) push a short-term memo to guide monthlong talks amid disputes over enrichment and sanctions relief Markets : Louis Gave's bull case on China (Podcast - fwiw couldn't agree more!), Apple now spends 10%+ of revenue on R&D for first time in 30 years, Tech rally hands hedge funds biggest gains since 2020, U.S earnings continue to push markets higher + hope for end of war (it's been a 'done' deal for a while, as discussed lately..), but it'll be a drag on things, might even be a buy the rumour & sell the fact...given valuations and general level of optimism, we shall see, for now 'mr market is loving it', Several whistleblowers say that Axios coordinated news with market insiders (surely not..!! this WILL be the largest trading scandal in history, they will make film of it..) Crude update : The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil, and...war is over.. SEC moves to scrap quarterly reporting requirement! why not, easier to fraud then! Norway approves the re-development of three North Sea oil-and-gas fields that were closed ~30 years ago FT-There are grounds to suspect that Donald Trump is thinking of something bigger than self-adulation. The best way to perpetuate your name is to arrange for a successor with the same name Putin’s Strongman Image Is Fading as Ukraine Brings War Home to Russia. The Russian president’s “Victory Day” cult has backfired as the conflict drags on longer than the Soviets’ battle against the Nazis. (WSJ) SNB's Martin: SNB has greater willingness to intervene on FX... after BoJ/MOF action, SNB should/could well get more involved #CHFJPY lower SEC moves to scrap quarterly reporting requirement Let’s just completely do away with price discovery, shall we?...really..? Hedge funds performance: Tech stock rally fuels best month since 2020 France moves aircraft carrier group toward Strait of Hormuz for possible defensive mission Trump says war will be 'over quickly' as Iran considers 14-point US proposal Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies The Bull Case for China: The Best Opportunity Right Now? | Louis Gave - The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Podcast on Spotify >>> well worth a listen, China bull, couldn't agree more ! Brilliant, watch it ! : Сarm1ne on X: "Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 crash, made $100 million, then spent years trying to destroy this footage you will watch him lose $6 million in one afternoon, sit in his chair and say "total devastation" then make it all back with 100% interest This documentary will change https://t.co/i1iiQu9vmm" / X Who needs the Magnificent 7: A long tail of opportunity The age of the American Pharaoh The Gold market: Watching what comes after – The Armchair Trader Bull Theory on X: "THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST INSIDER TRADING SCANDAL IN OIL HISTORY. According to The Kobeissi Letter, about $920 million in crude oil shorts were placed at 3:40 AM ET today, 70 minutes before any news went live. TIMELINE: 3:40 AM ET: 10,000 contracts ($920M) shorted oil with no https://t.co/zATUuculBx" / X Davos Deadlock: Trump Team, EU, and PLATFORM Hold Talks – Why US Citizens Remain Locked Out | The Guardian Godkjenner gjenopning av tre gassfelt i Ekofiskområdet - regjeringen.no What a legend, Happy 100th David Attenborough ! this has to be one of the best video (with sound!).. Attenborough: the amazing Lyre Bird sings like a chainsaw! Now in high quality | BBC Earth - YouTube

Iran update : Trump's daily TACO ('Project Freedom suspended' after 2days..), mission accomplished of course! (as expected, he is bored of dealing with the problem of his own creation!...) >>> Stocks climbed to a record and Brent declined after Donald Trump signalled progress toward a final agreement with Iran. The president said he would pause a US-led effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz. The naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in force. Iran’s foreign minister met with China’s top diplomat in Beijing, just days before Trump is due to arrive for an expected summit with Xi Jinping, Top US General Caine: 1,550 ships trapped in the Gulf with 22,500 mariners aboard, Trump walking away 'winning'.., backing away .., achieved absolutely nothing...and now will let EU and China sort out the mess..), Trump and the U.S have long lost all credibility in ME..END of the U.S global dominance.. >>> AND... Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a barrel premium of mid-April Markets : HK reported fastest economic growth in five years at 5.9%!, IMF rules on #USDJPY shows that can only do two more interventions till November.... (so these interventions better count ! or else..), UK 30y gilt hit highest yields since 1998 at 5.8%!, U.S ISM services PMI slightly down at 53.6, JOLTS down slightly to 6.866mio, Carlsberg goes for a hybrid 1'000 year bond ! yeps you read that right!!.., KOSPI continues to trade like a small cap up 7% on the day, HUGE swings this year, another 'likely' intervention from JAPAN overnight in #USDJPY, they need to bring it down to 140 to call it a success.. or else it'll backfire Azerbaijan has begun delivering natural gas to Germany, Italy and Austria China is targeting 70% domestic silicon wafer use by 2026 UK landlords exit rental sector amid regulatory pressures EU's Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis: Europe is facing a stagflationary shock Alphabet to raise at least €9 bln in its record Euro bond sale Gold Manipulation: The 'London Bias' : 1970-2024 UAE media are saying that it was Saudi Arabia that carried out the attack to disrupt oil exports, not Iran. Iran also denied today that it had struck any sites in the UAE." Visioner on X: "🇦🇿 🇦🇹 🇩🇪 BREAKING | Azerbaijan has begun delivering natural gas to Germany and Austria, President Ilham Aliyev announced. The State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) confirmed that supplies to buyers in both countries started in January 2026 via the Trans Adriatic https://t.co/EpRVZ007zj" / X Iran told Saudi Arabia it planned to 'crush the UAE': Report | Middle East Eye Iran Launches Persian Gulf Strait Authority as Tehran and Washington Battle for Control of Hormuz | IBTimes UK How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank Global oil reserves plunge at record pace as Middle East war strains supplies Meloni and Trump’s cooling relationship marks the failure of an EU-MAGA middle ground Hong Kong Q1 GDP expands at strongest pace in nearly five years - CNA Japan Has Two More Windows for Yen Intervention by IMF Rules - Bloomberg UK landlords exit rental sector amid regulatory pressures - PropertyWire Fitch Rates Carlsberg Breweries A/S's Proposed Hybrid Notes 'BBB-(EXP)' You read that right !... 1'000 year 'hybrid' bond Jeff Bezos shakes up Blue Origin staff incentives ahead of SpaceX IPO | News.az Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Hilarious that the message Rubio is asking China to give Iran during Araghchi's Beijing visit is that Iran is "globally isolated" when the very fact he's invited to China (and that China is now fighting US sanctions on Iran's oil) proves they aren't. https://t.co/UUGmfrL2d1" / X Farrukh on X: "BBC News finally cover Nigel Farage's £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire NF says its within the rules and shouts down at the reporter Then Chris Mason refuses to explain the rules Here's what the rules say @ChrisMasonBBC - shame on you for not explaining this: UK House https://t.co/3ZePbjjxnC" / X Gold Manipulation: The 'London Bias' | Sprott Money Canada American Eagle Gold wrestles for control of Pacific Booker – The Armchair Trader

Iran update : The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf, jolting a fragile four-week-old ceasefire. The American military fought off attacks as it facilitated the passage of two US-flagged vessels through Hormuz. Donald Trump said the war may last another two to three weeks in comments to Salem News Channel, US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, >>> Trump has boxed himself into a corner, blockade doesn't work, operation 'freedom' once again turns into an active war, so is the blockade really.. can't really win from a military point of view... he hasn't got any time, Iran has..same old..as discussed before, risk real shortages are kicking in now slowly but surely Markets : EU will add new goods to the anti-deforestation law, including palm-oil-based soap and soluble coffee, RBA hiked as expected, Chevron’s CEO has just told the world that physical shortages in oil supply will begin appearing, Philippine April inflation print was nasty: 7.2% - highest in 3years, Prime Minister Mark Carney makes a VERY compelling case for a closer union between Canada and Europe >>> AI premium-valuations vs rest of the world in markets continues... looks way overdone (nothing really new!), looking for a correction in Mai though. JPY in play, could well keep USD on soft side too, PM's look relatively cheap again from here, Brent is still 105+ China helps Zimbabwe make history: First lithium sulfate produced on African soil Swiss lawmakers seek to fast-track UBS capital decision as debate begins Yesterday, China ordered its companies to ignore U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, days before the Xi-Trump summit and in direct defiance of Treasury warnings >>> the era of U.S. financial bullying is over The EU is in talks with Anthropic about getting the bloc’s companies and banks tested for any vulnerabilities identified by the firm’s Mythos AI model Carney : “We are an energy superpower - the 3rd largest oil producer, 4th largest in natural gas, largest hydro renewable base. We’re committed to addressing climate change while providing reliable, affordable energy to our citizens and partners.... We’re here because of the moral and security imperatives of our cooperation...” U.S. launches mission to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran threatens attacks US strikes Iranian fast boats as Iran attacks UAE oil facility Attacks on U.S. Warships in Strait Test Trump’s Desire to End Iran War - WSJ Macron casts doubt on Trump’s Hormuz operation as France-US gap grows - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012 (1) Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Masterstroke - Global21 Brussels bans Chinese inverters from EU-funded power projects connected to European grid | South China Morning Post Foreclosure Filings Hit Six-Year High as Insurance and Tax Costs Squeeze US Homeowners | the deep dive US Foreclosure filing jump to 6 year high, as more homeowners fall behind on mortgage payments, per WSJ. Foreclosure rates are up 26% YoY with Florida and Texas topping the nation — driven by rising property taxes, insurance costs and debt strain of US homeowners, per ATTOM Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer Jane Street employees paid $9.4bn in 2025 Swiss lawmakers seek to fast-track UBS capital decision as debate begins | Reuters China-backed miner makes history as Zimbabwe exports first battery-grade lithium product | Business Insider Africa Politics In The U.K. on X: "Farage’s £5M gift — of which £800k was, by all indications, funnelled through his foreign national girlfriend to fund his Clacton house. https://t.co/UIhirszQpj" / X Depressing but a lot of it is true if not most of it !! a little bit far fetched.. maybe but.. Ricardo on X: "This Wall Street insider just exposed the secret doomsday escape plans of AI billionaires. 1 in 3 billionaires has a fully funded plan to abandon civilization when things collapse. They meet their pilots at Oakland airport, board a Gulfstream 650, fly to New Zealand, and https://t.co/2AObQmLZyX" / X Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026 European Commission is in contact with Anthropic on Mythos, Dombrovskis says | WSAU News/Talk 550 AM · 99.9 FM | Wausau, Stevens Point Mario Nawfal on X: "🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Chevron's CEO just put it bluntly: oil shortages are starting, Europe is canceling flights over jet fuel, the U.S. is next on the price hike list. 77% of Americans already blame Trump for high gas. That number's about to get worse... https://t.co/ekELSxSAxS" / X