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G7 : Not such a happy family, Trump left early, G7 statement without Trump's signature and Trump implied Russia should be reincluded in a G8 and declined to agree more sanctions on it Markets : ETHA ETF available on the platform now (with options) , see below, solar stocks down (U.S budget), Trump 'urged an evacuation of Tehran' (even if impossible, why did he say this???) , FOMC tomorrow, SNB, Norges and BoE Thursday >>> USD not doing much, slightly oversold perhaps ahead of FOMC, SPX500 'struggles' 6K+ valuations, geopolitics, tariffs, still many issues out there, AND it's VIX EXPIRY tomorrow, which tend to coincide with 'highs and lows' , recall the last 2months VOL hammering which brough back all the systematic buyers of Eq....BEWARE of a change of tune in market sentiment, wouldnt take much SPX500 : No matter what anyone says - the S&P trading at 22 x has very limited upside 30-Year Treasury Bonds have now lost almost half their value over the last 5 years , chart and Thread below EU Commission prepared to accept flat-rate U.S. tariff of 10% under clear conditions The Trump Organization said it will begin selling a gold smartphone for $499 in August, the grifting will never stop The EU should be open to resuming Russian gas imports if peace agreements are mediated to end the war in Ukraine , Austria said. Brussels “we must maintain the option of reassessing the situation once the war is over,” the Austrian Department of Energy told the Financial Times BOJ holds interest rate, will trim JGB buying by around 200bn yen. Central bank maintains rate at 0.5% amid Trump tariffs and economic uncertainty $30 trillion global debt in 1997 and $325 trillion global debt today.... So many controversial news, Trump made a fool of Macron, who said Donald left G7 to focus on peace talks, Trump had none of it and said Macron didn't know what he was talking about Iran live: Israeli strike kills Iranian journalist and staffer at state TV | Middle East Eye Truth Details | Truth Social Iran sought US pressure on Israel for ceasefire via Gulf states, sources say | Reuters Netanyahu tells ABC he's not ruling out taking out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - ABC News G7 Statement G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran | Prime Minister of Canada The EU may accept a flat 10% U.S. tariff, with conditions - Fast Company EU’s Sefcovic to Meet US’s Greer at G-7 to Talk Trade, Tariffs Business news live: FTSE 100 opens after UK-US trade deal is signed US Senate budget bill proposal keeps cuts to solar, wind incentives | Reuters Senate GOP tax bill would hit politically explosive Medicaid provision - Live Updates - POLITICO Trump-branded wireless service launches — with a gold phone Didi anybody ever doubt he was only in for the dosh... Aaron Rupar on X: "Eric Trump: "Eventually all the phones can be built in the USA." (so Trump phones are not actually being built in the USA lol ... ) https://t.co/wLKx74fMcC " / X Keith Edwards on X: "What if the soldiers were silently protesting? https://t.co/DgfXPQyrwe " / X >>>>You bet, no doubt about it..I didn't do too much military service but I can guaranty you it's not too hard to 'march' properly aligned.. Institutional flows and pure leverage: how to trade the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with options | Saxo Gold — not the dollar or Treasurys — is the new ‘risk-free’ asset as Israel-Iran conflict rattles investors - MarketWatch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: China’s central bank increased its gold holdings by 2 tonnes in April, posting their 6th consecutive monthly purchase. This brings China’s gold reserves to a record 2,295 tonnes, or 6.8% of total reserve assets. According to Goldman Sachs, China actually purchased 27 https://t.co/szVOtMcpp9 " / X Weston Nakamura on X: "🇯🇵Bank of Japan June 2025 BOJ is continuing to reduce JGB buying IN -LINE w/ prevailing trajectory & expectations In other words- this reduction isn’t a taper-tapering BOJ Gov Ueda: 🇯🇵15:30 MOF impromptu meeting w/ bond market investors to term out JGB issuance: 6/20 https://t.co/5t9ojdEUk5 " / X Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Treasury Bonds 30-Year Treasury Bonds have now lost almost half their value over the last 5 years 📉📉 https://t.co/AEHAwU2vMj " / X

Strait of Hormuz the key Markets : pretty light reaction to the missile exchange over the weekend! in fact crude was up 4-5% initially, SPX traded 5960 area and here we are, plenty of fake news, quite hard to follow, some suggesting members of Iran's supreme leaders left to another country, state of the Natanz underground nuclear facility??, the key for crude and markets in general, remains the Srait of Hormuz, ECB's de Guindos seems relaxed about EURO strength and Trump's military parade was a bit of a flop (clearly some soldiers didn't want to be there and march! ..) G7 in Canada today, it's like G6 vs Trump these days FOMC meeting, is the FED still in a good ploace ? (..with crude prices higher..) Companies are bullish on AI but remain skeptical of the payoff Canada, UK agree to establish trade working group, expand defense collaboration Walmart and Amazon are reportedly considering their own crypto #stablecoins Emerging Markets stocks are underperforming U.S. stocks by the largest margin in more than 50 year (chart available on request) S&P 500 looks expensive, but for good reason, BofA Brad Gerstner : US export controls banning Nvidia in China are huge mistake - handing monopoly profits, data & developers in massive China mkt to Huawei will accelerate their AI stack around the world. Let Nvidia win, pin down Huawei, keep developers in Cuda & plow profits back into US JPM expects Japan, EU, and China to outperform the US in the next 10-15 years Vietnam has officially gained admission to BRICS as a “partner country” Another one. Econovis on X: "📈 Turning Point in Hormuz Strait Tensions The Strait of Hormuz funnels ~20 mbpd (90% of Gulf oil) flows through the Strait. Iran’s leverage is fading: U.S./EU demand has plunged, China’s surged. Any disruption now hits Beijing hardest—while U.S. producers stand to gain. 🔗 https://t.co/bgOueb8oiv " / X 'It is a flop': Sparse crowds undermine Trump's military parade Live updates: Israel attacks Iran, explosions in Tel Aviv and Tehran, US position | CNN How Israel's Mossad covertly infiltrated Iran to launch unprecedented attack Israel's Attack on Iran's Nuclear Program Is Going for the Death Blow Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran's supreme leader, US officials say | Reuters Forget the G7. Now it’s the G6 vs. Trump. – POLITICO MAGA Warned Trump on Iran. Now He’s In An Impossible Position. - POLITICO Is the Fed still in a 'good place'? | Reuters ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says Canada, UK agree to establish trade working group, expand defense collaboration | Reuters Companies are bullish on AI but remain skeptical of the payoff China’s May Retail Sales rise 6.4%, Industrial Production up 5.8% Why Walmart and Amazon Are Reportedly Considering Their Own Crypto Stablecoins S&P 500 looks expensive, but for good reason, BofA's Subramanian says (SP500:S&P Complete Indices) | Seeking Alpha Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "JPM expects Japan, EU, and China to outperform the US in the next 10-15 years Good start. https://t.co/V7GZEKo50E " / X

Markets : Israel launched strikes against Iran overnight, that escalated swiftly...every commentator on TVee will become an expert on the situation now! No point speculating, uncertainty likely to remain high for a while... Equity market top confirmed, SPX 6K+ and equivalent, on valuations! the trigger for correction is now here , with Crude up nearly 10%, chances of a FED cut has diminished now (Trump called Powell 'numbskull' yesterday), he will keep having a go no doubt.. Bonds having their days again (slowdown growth-stagflation again then..), reduced risk, no need to be too brave in all this, USD may show some strength short-term again (slightly oversold, USD demand on further risk-off possible too), and we have Trump's parade to look forward to this weekend Crude Oil could soar to $130 in a "worst-case" scenario, warns JP Morgan DoubleLine’s Gundlach has cut his allocation to speculative-grade credit to the lowest since his firm was founded . He sees elements of 1999 and 2006-2007 in today’s markets, and said longer-term US Treasuries are no longer risk-free investments/ Video below Hedge funds bought a record amount of global equities in May, according to Goldman Sachs >>> short-covering done, smalls new highs , momentum fails and now markets under pressure.... Wall Street economists expect inflation measures to rise to the mid to low 3% range by the end of the year The outlook for 2026 is more interesting. Some have inflation back to 2%, others have it closer to 3% US Treasury Secretary says that in two decades the Ukrainian economy will be larger than the Russian. Bessent: I think that would provide a very strong deterrent for whomever is running Russia then U.S Continuing unemployment claims keep moving higher reflecting softening labor market >>> 4 week moving average initial claims making two year highs China ready to drop all tariffs...on African imports...not too surprised there! Using #PLTR currently has a $360B+ market cap on $3.1B revenue and $0.57M in net income.... totally justifiable... Merz : no diplomatic resolution to peace talks with RU, therefore, we are doing now what have previously announced. There will be more sanctions 'Too much bureaucracy,' Reeves tells regulators Trump suggested car tariffs could go higher soon as "The higher you go, the more likely it is to build a plant here.” US says it was not involved in Israel's military strikes in Iran - BBC News Israel has so far carried out 5 waves of strikes in Iran, military official says | The Times of Israel Iran launches 100 drones at Israel in response to missile attack What To Know About Trump’s Military Parade Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump Trump calls Fed chief Powell 'numbskull' as he urges interest rate cut Trump ‘may have to force’ Fed on interest rate cuts 'Too much bureaucracy,' Chancellor Rachel Reeves tells regulators - BBC News (((Tendar))) on X: "Statement by Chancellor Friedrich Merz: „You remember, 5 weeks ago I launched the initiative in Kyiv together with other European leaders, aiming to achieve a diplomatic success in reference to opening up peace talks with Russia. This has not been achieved. Russia is not willing https://t.co/pg4gu92hGe " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: Hedge funds bought a record amount of global equities in May, according to Goldman Sachs. This comes after 4 consecutive months of net selling, which included nearly a record dumping in March. Last week, these funds' trading activity saw the largest https://t.co/wNqAcmSVwp " / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Wall Street economists expect inflation measures to rise to the mid to low 3% range by the end of the year The outlook for 2026 is more interesting. Some have inflation back to 2%, others have it closer to 3%. https://t.co/xkPBGwrrnf " / X China-Africa trade: Beijing ready to drop tariffs on imports from the continent - BBC News Zero-sum game mentality not conducive to transforming consensus into fair deal: China Daily editorial - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn Why Bessent dislikes China Sacramento-area lawmakers react to Senator Alex Padilla being escorted out of press conference BreakThrough News on X: ""We will kill you graveyard dead." Florida Sheriff Wayne Ivey threatened to kill anti-ICE protesters, offering multiple graphic, sadistic descriptions of how police would do it. https://t.co/ndIcsctyNY " / X Air India Flight 171: Everything we know as passenger plane destined for London Gatwick crashes

China puts six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses, WSJ reports, China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar, Beijing is asking for production details & confidential lists of customers as part of its export approval process for critical minerals and magnets, free trade ? trade deal done ? Markets : Israel/Iran situation escalating (risk), crude higher, tame U.S CPI y'day 0.1% softer than exp (core still 2.8%, but '' significantly increases the likelihood of Fed cuts this year, particularly if there is material slowing in employment'' ), Trump and Vance had a go at Powell to cut now, Trump deal with China isn't a deal at all but it sounded good (''He says, Xi says...''..U.S not in a strong position to negotiate), all about rare earth. LA immigration riots spreading in man other cities nationwide, not good >>> USD following yields lower + risk-off (#USDJPY #JPY), equity for now not too concerned but IMHO, markets been topping out, SPX made a blood rush higher yesterday on the China deal (cough..not a deal), and it wouldn't take much to move lower from here, DAX/EUstocks50 been topping out too, WATCH #VIX, which ticked up a little last 24hours!.. More TACO action : Bessent floats extending tariff pause for countries in ‘good faith’ trade talks Bessent on inflation: "Inflation in the U.S. is at its slowest pace since 2021 on decelerating cost increases for shelter, food, and energy. After four years of price increases diminishing the U.S. standard of living, inflation is showing substantial improvement due to the administration’s policies" The market value of the US bond market has fallen to just 68% of the stock market’s value, the lowest ratio since the 1970s Gibraltar/UK agree deal to hand control of border to EU. Britons will now have to show passports to Spanish or EU guards when they land on the Rock... #XAUUSD Gold overtook the Euro as global reserve asset 2024, Silver and platinum prices soared as investors seek ‘gold alternatives’ - Prices climb more than 10% this month amid search for hedges against dollar weakness Paul Tudor Jones Predicts 10% Dollar Slump During the Next Year  - “You know that we are going to cut short-term rates dramatically in the next year,” Jones said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “And you know that the dollar will probably be lower because of it. A lot lower because of it.” (HK) Reportedly Hong Kong’s pension fund managers have earlier formed a preliminary plan to sell down their US Treasury holdings within as soon as three months if the US loses its last recognized AAA credit rating - press [**Reminder: Moody's joined S&P and Fitch at cutting US rating from 'AAA' to 'AA+' on May 16th] In May, the US Govt collected $370bn, just one big issue it spent $687bn., that's a $315+bn deficit in one single month Israel considering military action against Iran in days without US support - reports | World News | Sky News Israel considering military strike on Iran, sources say US to pull some personnel from the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran | Reuters Bessent: Tariff pause for countries in 'good faith' talks Rick Rieder on X: "With today’s highly anticipated CPI print coming in below expectations on MoM and core readings for its fourth month in a row, inflation has proven to be tamer and more controlled than initially expected. Core Services is now running at the lowest 6M and 3M annualized run rate https://t.co/sxH1qLkpuI " / X Vance joins Trump in bashing Powell, says Fed committing 'monetary malpractice' by not cutting rates Marines to deploy on LA streets within two days with authority to detain civilians | Reuters Trump’s latest trade ‘deal’ with China underscores key U.S. disadvantage - POLITICO Gold tops euro to become central banks’ second favourite reserve asset Market Quick Take - 12 June 2025 | Saxo Available online and on X Gibraltar: Starmer agrees to hand control of border to Europe another win for Brits, strewth Ballymena riots demand a clear and united response - The Irish News view LA anti-ICE protests spread across US as National Guard deployed The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is historic: The market value of the US bond market has fallen to just 68% of the stock market’s value, the lowest ratio since the 1970s. This share has HALVED in 14 years as stocks have widely outpaced bonds. To put this differently, the US stock market is now 50% larger https://t.co/2TKo6MqUcr " / X China puts six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses, WSJ reports | Reuters Exclusive-China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar

U.S - China 'frame work' agreed >>> 90 deals in 90 days, still none done Markets : U.S - China gree framework to ease tensions (China had the upper hand on rare earth..), Trump going full authoritarian before our eyes L.A. curfew (few seem to bother with the news though, it's spreading in other cities overnight...) , Bessent emerges as possible replacement for Powell, looting iPhones has become tricky!, Trump's handshake tactic didn't work with Merz!, Saxo's Hardy's macro view below, precious metal roaring #PLAT #PALL #XAG ..., equity near highs still, last 'soft' U.S CPI before tariffs impact this afternoon (probably, risk it ticks up already) CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter: AI hits an already weak jobs market Trump tariffs to remain in place pending appeal, court rules Pentagon planted UFO myths to conceal secret weapons programs, report reveals World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4% to 2.3% Iran lawmakers accuse US and Israel of planning nuclear talks trap The U.K., Canada, Australia, NZ, & Norway sanctioned two far-right Israeli government ministers and... Netanyahu to U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth: “Muslims see the U.S. as the Great Satan, and Israel as the Little Satan. Our war is your war, and our victory is your victory.” #Iran The EU again proposed lowering the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45, banning the use of the Nord Stream pipelines, and cutting another 22 Russian banks from the SWIFT Macron says he’ll ban social media for under-15s in France. French government also wants to ban websites selling knives to children Hardy’s Macro View: Rule #4 for the Trump 2.0 market era. | Saxo Summary:  In this final installment of our four-part series, we examine Rule #4 for navigating the Trump 2.0 era: we are entering an inflationary age. Unlike previous inflation episodes, this one is structural, rooted not just in policy choices but in the deeper rewiring of the global economy. Iran lawmakers accuse US and Israel of planning nuclear talks trap U.K., Canada, Australia and others sanction 2 far-right Israeli ministers for 'inciting extremist violence' Macron says he’ll ban social media for under-15s in France – POLITICO Gavin Newsom on X: "California will keep fighting on behalf of all our people including in the courts. If some of us can be snatched off the streets without a warrant, based only on suspicion or skin color, then none of us are safe. Authoritarian regimes begin by targeting people who are least https://t.co/7qXkrLopkc " / X US, China Officials Agree on Plan to Ramp Down Trade Tensions The US and China have agreed to a preliminary deal on implementing the consensus reached in Geneva, with negotiators from both sides saying they "absolutely expect" issues around rare Earth minerals and magnets to be resolved. While  full details of their accord are not available, the US and Chinese delegations will now take the proposal back to their respective leaders, said China’s chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang, after two days of discussions that spanned nearly 20 hours in a Georgian-era mansion near Buckingham Palace.  NEXTA on X: "🤝Merz wasn’t just waiting — he was preparing for this meeting! Outplayed and destroyed Trump’s dominant handshake. https://t.co/jIz6SbhTzX " / X Solid hand shake Merz has ! Exclusive: Hyundai Motor has a rare earths stockpile that can last about a year, source says | Reuters Fed to keep rates on hold at least until September as inflation risks linger | Reuters Bessent emerges as possible contender to succeed Fed's Powell, Bloomberg reports | Reuters Trump tariffs to remain in place pending appeal, court rules CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: AI hits an already weak jobs market Trump says Iran has become 'much more aggressive' in nuclear negotiations | Fox News Ed Miliband to boost Britain’s nuclear power as blackout fears rise Pentagon planted UFO myths to conceal secret weapons programs, report reveals Los Angeles curfew comes into force as Trump says he'll 'liberate' city amid anti-immigration protests and looting Playbook PM: Why Republicans’ megabill deadline could slip - POLITICO Brian Krassenstein on X: "New York, Los Angeles, Austin, Denver and Atlanta. Is this what you voted for MAGA? The country certainly wasn’t this divided under Biden. Seems like a problem at the top. https://t.co/fDC95WW1L5 " / X Brendan Gutenschwager on X: "Alarms blaring on multiple iPhones that were taken from the Apple store in downtown LA Displays on the devices read “Please return to Apple Tower Theatre This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted.” https://t.co/rhMiaRXA9z " / X Looting i-Phones became quite tricky!!

WSJ- Export controls..... a major concern for industries worldwide—are moving to the top of the agenda of Monday trade talks between the U.S. and China Markets : Donald Trump says he supports DHS Head Tom Homan arresting Gavin Newsom (surely not..), 700 marines sent to L.A., #PLAT prices highest in 4years, VIX did it, all about vol supression/thread below #VIX A 63% collapse in the VIX over 9 weeks signals a regime dominated by volatility suppression mechanics: systematic vol selling, gamma pinning, and options-driven dealer flow. But history shows this level of compression often precedes a disorderly unwind, not because of what traders see, but because of what they’ve stopped hedging. The real risk isn’t elevated volatility it’s the illusion of stability in a leveraged, fragility-prone system. When volatility sells off this hard, it’s not a celebration it’s a coiled spring. Trump says China ‘Not Easy’ as Trade Talks to resume today, India follows China & the U.S. back towards coal as energy demand surges far beyond what renewables can provide US oil rigs are increasingly going offline as crude prices fall. The Baker Hughes US crude oil rig count has dropped to the lowest since 2021 Auto companies 'in full panic' over rare-earths bottleneck US Health Secretary RFK Jr. has removed all members of the CDC panel advising the US on vaccines. China built its own ASML, Lam, and KLA in five years. No hype. No Western parts. The loop is almost closed. China’s exports to the U.S. are down 35% year-on-year in May. China’s exports to the rest of the world are up 4.8%. Trade surplus? A clean $100 billion Orban thinks Russia too weak to attack NATO Brian Krassenstein on X: "BREAKING: Gavin Newsom to Trump and Tom Homan: “Arrest me. Let’s just get it over with, tough guy. I don’t give a damn… Tom, arrest me. Let’s go.” Los Angeles was fine until Trump massively brought ice agents into the city in order to distract from his Elon feud. https://t.co/XJvEB26DAU " / X Export Controls to Take Center Stage at U.S.-China Trade Talks - WSJ Trump Says China ‘Not Easy’ as Trade Talks to Resume Tuesday Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day in London, aiming to ease tensions over technology and rare earth elements shipments. Representatives for both nations had ended their first day of negotiations in London after more than six hours at Lancaster House. ·The US is willing to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for China easing limits on rare earth shipments, with the Trump administration prepared to lift recent measures targeting chip design software, jet engine parts, and more. Complacency all around. What provides next spark? | Saxo Summary:  Not much direction in this market as volatility continues to ebb and the market can’t work up much excitement for macro data or trade headlines. Focus this week on US treasury auctions and especially the May US CPI data tomorrow. EndGame Macro on X: "A 63% collapse in the VIX over 9 weeks signals a regime dominated by volatility suppression mechanics: systematic vol selling, gamma pinning, and options-driven dealer flow. But history shows this level of compression often precedes a disorderly unwind, not because of what" / X NEXTA on X: "🇭🇺Orban has been replaced! Putin's friend thinks Russians are too weak to attack NATO — Do you see the risk of a general war in Europe? — No. — Why? — Because the Russians are too weak for that. They can't even defeat Ukraine, so they are not capable of truly attacking NATO. https://t.co/2nVMPoerYb " / X The stealth Senate dealmaker who could deliver Trump’s tax cuts - POLITICO Los Angeles latest: 700 marines to be deployed - as thousands of troops 'given no food or water' | US News | Sky News Britain to invest 14.2 billion pounds in Sizewell C nuclear project | Reuters High Street struggles as shoppers slam the brakes on spending: Retail sales see weakest growth this year | This is Money Switzerland hits UBS with $26 billion added capital requirement; shares rise Platinum price surges to highest in four years as market tightens - MINING.COM WWDC25 updates: Apple brings OpenAI into Image Playground app The world’s strongest currency is also super-competitive  - SWI swissinfo.ch China's SMEE files patent for an EUV chipmaking tool — tool aims to break the shackles of ASML export restrictions | Tom's Hardware Auto companies 'in full panic' over rare-earths bottleneck | Reuters India's $80 billion coal-power boom is running short of water | Reuters Ukraine humiliates Putin again as covert drone operation destroys 100+ | World | News | Express.co.uk Ukraine: Russia launches hundreds of drones at Ukraine overnight | News UK Video News | Sky News France reiterates its military equipment isn’t used in Gaza as dock workers block shipment to Israel – POLITICO

Markets : May NFP report points to gradual moderation in labor market, Q1 GDP in Japan contracted 0.2% (less than 0.7% prev announced), carnage-shocking stuff in L.A. (large amount of ICE agents suddenly turn up there..., just as Musk talked Epstein files..coincidental distraction..?..) >>> U.S CPI, PPI, jobless clains and inflation exp coming up, UK spending, China /U.S trade talks ongoing, FED looks unlikely to cut next week, market may price something if CPI is soft(er) China approves some rare-earth export application Trump official who shut down counter-Russia agency has links to Kremlin Darren Beattie, who alarmed the State Department with his pro-Moscow views, is married to a woman whose uncle has ties to Vladimir Putin A cargo ship carrying around 3,000 vehicles, including 800 electric vehicles , caught fire June 3 off the coast of Alaska!!! , causing its crew to be evacuated – its operator Zodiac Maritime confirmed in a statement to USA TODAY GOLD, Silver, PLAT ! and PALL we love still, but the real long term dar hoerse is #copper '' We need to mine as much copper in the next 25 years as we have mined in the last 1000 years'' Goldman: … clients have engaged in buying stocks to increase their net exposure, but would highlight gross exposure remains at some of the highest levels of all time. The risk of a right tail rally against an overly short index portfolio is palpable , and you can see this reflected in the SPX vol surface, the closer we get to retaking the ATHs, the more bid call skew has become  … the closer we get to spx ATHs the harder it is to ignore this rally The market value of Treasury Bonds as a % of the market value of Stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the 1960s Old article, but still.. - Historian finds German decree banishing Trump's grandfather. Royal decree ordered Friedrich Trump to leave Bavaria and never come back after he failed to do military service, that's why Merz brought him the birth certificate at the WH.. Wall St Week Ahead US stocks edge toward records with inflation data, policy progress in focus | Reuters MS - We expect the US Treasury curve to steepen much further than it has so far. At the same time, we don't think 30-year Treasury bond yields drive the curve steeper by rising as they have year to date. Instead, we expect investors to face lower yields across the Treasury curve, led by shorter maturities. Still, just as lower yields have proved elusive over the past two years, stubbornly high levels may continue to frustrate investors over the next six months. Our economists believe tariff-related inflation will prevent the Fed from lowering rates this year – a dynamic which may keep Treasury yields in their two-year range for longer. China consumer deflation deepens as demand stays weak despite stimulus China approves some rare earth export applications: commerce ministry - Chinadaily.com.cn Brazil plans panda bond as Lula looks to bolster ties with China Brazil is hoping to sell its first sovereign debt in the Chinese market as soon as this year Japan's Q1 GDP contraction narrows on consumption improvement - Nikkei Asia Arne aus den Ruthen on X: "Mexico’s president-elect just said: “If necessary, we’ll mobilize. We don’t want taxes on remittances from our fellow countrymen. From the U.S. to Mexico.” A head of state openly calling for protests in the U.S. This is unprecedented. https://t.co/JqFETt5NKr " / X Hummm Gavin Newsom on X: "Trump’s border czar is threatening to arrest me for speaking out. Come and get me, tough guy. I don't give a damn. It won’t stop me from standing up for California. https://t.co/DvVQljAgir " / X Los Angeles live: British photographer has emergency surgery after being hit by non-lethal bullet amid LA unrest | US News | Sky News Ship carrying 3,000 cars abandoned after fire. EVs suspected as source That's really good for the ocean and environment, no-one will speak sbout this though Google DeepMind’s CEO Thinks AI Will Make Humans Less Selfish | WIRED If you buy that artificial intelligence is a once-in-a-species disruption, then what Demis Hassabis thinks should be of vital interest to you. Hassabis leads the AI charge for Google, arguably the best-equipped of the companies spending many billions of dollars to bring about that upheaval. He’s among those powerful leaders gunning to build artificial general intelligence, the technology that will supposedly have machines do everything humans do, but better... hummmm, going too far too fast IMHO, I don't particularly like regulations, but there are almost none...what could possibly go wrong.. Trump official who shut down counter-Russia agency has links to Kremlin Historian finds German decree banishing Trump's grandfather | Donald Trump | The Guardian

D-Day 81years. Respect Markets : Trump gone full TACO on everything... Reasonably good meeting with Merz ( Right in front of the German chancellor Trump claims credit for ending Nord Stream 2, and suggests part of the calculus was to replace Russia as Germany's gas supplier) , and a proper fall out with Musk ( #TSLA shares down sharply - Trump will very most likely cut subsidies..it was ALWAYS about the money!.) , Trump/Xi agreed to get talking again, >>> even 'interest on reserves' being discussed (Cruz below Thread), Lagarde had a huge speech >>> positioning on the Rule of Law and being predictable (just what's lacking in the US and China..), rate cut cycle looks nearly over, they should tighten up privacy law and get Techs going! >> supportive EURO >>> Equity a little volatile day-to-day (often happens on top-bottom of ranges), let's see how goes after NFP today >>> precious metals 'what else' , Huge break up through long term resistance for #PLAT #XPTUSD and #XAGUSD Trump/Xi : nothing been agreed, but they will meet, high official level, they  agree to start new round of talks ASAP China states goal of leaders should be to expel misunderstandings Trump calls Chinese leader ‘brilliant’ ECB basically now in pause Trump agreed with Elizabeth Warren on eliminating Debt Ceiling as August deadline approaches >>> so we've gone from being sensible and cut spending by $2trn #DOGE (lucky if 150bn of cuts happen..) to now let's spend and MMT this all the way...good grief >>> the truth is there will be NO govt spending cuts in a soaring budget deficit, until some sort of 'crisis' in either UST's or USD, which will leave Senate no choice but to have to do something... Zelensky's drone operation 'supported by CIA, MI6' — Jeffrey Sachs 'Surely the US knew, if it didn't, then the incompetence level of our intelligence is staggering beyond belief' Japan's Nikkei is reporting that competing views among Trump's advisers have delayed efforts by Washington to strike a deal with Tokyo. One source says that at one point, Lutnick, Greer and Bessent put the talks with the Japanese delegation on hold and began debating "right in front of them" >>> 90 deals in 90 days - good times.. Musk vs Trump: the political firestorm that’s torching Tesla’s stock | Saxo Tesla stock falls 15% in a week as big investors look to bail BANNON: President Trump should act immediately. If Elon’s threatening to pull a major program from SpaceX, Trump should sign an executive order tonight under the Defense Production Act. SpaceX should be seized by the U.S. government before midnight. (1) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Absolutely unreal. Right in front of the German chancellor Trump claims credit for ending Nord Stream 2, and suggests part of the calculus was to replace Russia as Germany's gas supplier: https://t.co/rHjH0MmVw1 "I'm the one who ended Nord Stream 2, going to a place called" / X ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as inflation cools, trade tensions loom That's a kind of move that would hurt banks... ! Aaron Rupar on X: "CNBC: You think that's gonna go through -- telling the Federal Reserve that can't pay interest to banks anymore? TED CRUZ: For nearly 100 years, until the financial crisis, the Fed paid no interest on reserves CNBC: It was put in place to ensure the stability of the financial https://t.co/ujirfd6oVq " / X Debt-Service Effects Derived From H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act | Congressional Budget Office Trump Agrees With Elizabeth Warren On Eliminating Debt Ceiling As August Deadline Approaches Bessent, Lutnick and Greer keep Japan guessing in US tariff talks - Nikkei Asia Britain at a crossroads: Finance, industry and the global adjustment – POLITICO Trump speaks with China's Xi Jinping as trade war intensifies Republicans against Trump on X: "Steve Bannon says Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had a ‘physical confrontation.’: “Scott Bessent called him out and said, ‘You promised us a trillion dollars in cuts, and now you’re at like $100 billion. Nobody can find any savings. What are you doing?’ And https://t.co/yUltiqDCJx " / X (1) Adam Schwarz on X: "German Chancellor Merz sets the record straight after Trump tries to draw moral equivalence between Russia and Ukrainian actions: "Ukraine is only targeting military targets. Not civilians, not private [property], not energy infrastructure. This is the difference." https://t.co/xKx0rjsVvd " / X (1) Jay in Kyiv on X: "After implying that Merz is not happy the Nazi's were defeated, Trump sits like an idiot as Merz tells him its time to stop kissing Putin's ass. https://t.co/NguilepRNC " / X WW2 Veterans gather in Normandy to remember D-Day landings | UK | News | Express.co.uk

Markets : USD weakened on weaker ADP (37K, the lowest in more than 2 years), spirited UST rally across the curve with 30s back to 4.87%, had a bit of short squeeze feel to it with discontinuous NFP price action coming up tomorrow (a weak one will push market to price something for the June Fed meeting in 2 weeks..). Trump's bill to add $2.4trn to deficit (CBO), and now Musk escalates attack, urges Americans to 'kill' Trump's tax cut bill, Key Senate Republicans strategized with Trump today on how to cut spending deeper, EUROPE has to be totally united, more than ever before/Thread below >>> ECB will cut (all priced in), weak NFP will lead to June cut talks, USD stays weak(er), precious metals should confirm break up #PLAT #PALL #XAG and gold of course also Gold miners #GDXJ broke up last week looks like silvers miners finally doing it this week #SILV etc EU is discussing a "triple threat" from Trump regarding Ukraine, NATO and trade - FT Michel Barnier slams ‘authoritarian drift’ in Brussels under Ursula von der Leyen Fox: Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are getting anxious . Billionaire Bill Ackman says if tariffs stay in place, we face an economic nuclear winter. Banker Jamie Dimon says tariffs will slow economic growth. Fed Chair Powell has said tariffs will bring higher inflation Google backs AI-boosted nuclear fusion reactor HELOC withdrawals surge to highest level in 17y in first quarter (..2008)- ICE Mortgage The Global Gold Divergence: East Accumulates, West Distracted/Thread #XAUUSD Central banks been buying nearly 4x more gold than what has been publicly disclosed, according to Bloomberg. A new gold rush is unfolding in real time.... It’s been many years since you’ve seen overseas markets dramatically outperform the US. Dollar fell a lot after tech stocks blew up in 2000 >>>> Goldman: the Chinese yuan may now be commencing a multi-year strengthening path against the USD (...they all slowly joining in...) >>> #USD is near very key long-term support, showing signs of breaking down, let's see after ECB today and NFP tom #MSFT is laying off more workers as AI continues to trim workforces.. Canada just hit back at U.S on trade - tariffs — and pretty hard EU is discussing a "triple threat" from Trump regarding Ukraine, NATO and trade - FT | УНН ADP report shows meager growth, Trump lashes out at the Fed Trump tax bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over a decade: CBO Four reasons Musk attacked Trump's "big beautiful bill" Musk escalates attack, urges Americans to 'kill' Trump's tax cut bill | World News - Business Standard Michel Barnier slams ‘authoritarian drift’ in Brussels under Ursula von der Leyen – POLITICO EndGame Macro on X: "The Global Gold Divergence: East Accumulates, West Distracted A historic dislocation has emerged across the global gold market. Despite gold prices surging past $3,360 per ounce, both net speculative futures positions and total gold ETF holdings remain deeply subdued. This https://t.co/MLP1FJFNeN " / X Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them On to Their Customers? - Liberty Street Economics Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨US services sector is getting hit: The ISM Services PMI index tumbled to 49.9 points, marking the first contraction since June 2024. New orders fell to 46.4, the second-lowest since the 2020 Crisis. Outside of 2020, this is the second-lowest level since the Financial Crisis. https://t.co/w9iIwAHMa4 " / X Microsoft Is Laying Off More Workers as AI Continues to Trim Workforces What will this mean in other fields, corporations, governments... Google bets big on TAE’s cost-effective nuclear fusion reactor ‘Elon Was Butthurt’: Axios Reports on Real Reason Musk Attacked Trump’s Bill Amazon announces $10 billion investment for AI in North Carolina PGM market set for a comeback? - MINING.COM You bet ! In Japan, anger over ‘unacceptable’ steel tariffs despite Nippon deal - The Washington Post Cargo Ship Vanished In Smoke With 3,000 Cars And EVs Still Trapped Below Deck | Carscoops Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 on X: "“The Kremlin — Snared by the Spider’s Web” Ukraine’s bold and unprecedented drone attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has done far more than material damage. Its effects will be felt for years. 1/n https://t.co/yDbbn2V4BI " / X It is not merely a Ukrainian success; it is a warning to all those that believe distance or size can guarantee safety. (1) P a u l ◉ on X: "🚨BREAKING: Canada Just Hit Back—Hard Ontario Premier Doug Ford just dropped a $30 billion hammer on Trump’s economy. In direct response to Trump’s asinine decision to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Ford announced Ontario will onshore all U.S. imports, https://t.co/V1ebzsc6W4 " / X Anton Gerashchenko on X: "The great battle for Europe is underway. The United States, China, and Russia are all interested in Europe. But they are not interested in a united, strong Europe. They want a decentralized, deindustrialized, and weakened Europe. That way, it becomes easier to wage economic wars https://t.co/m90CJgp7ep " / X The great battle for Europe is underway. The United States, China, and Russia are all interested in Europe. But they are not interested in a united, strong Europe. They want a decentralized, deindustrialized, and weakened Europe. That way, it becomes easier to wage economic wars with individual European countries. And for Russia, it becomes easier to seize territories and install pro-Russian governments.

Markets : META revives nuclear power (confirmation...for #URA ), China orders 100's of Airbus, JPN birth rate all time lows, Dutch govt falls, Trump 'TACO' again on steel (partly), what a mess, a big Thread on BTC below, Tax cuts for German corporates/FT >> lower vol, summer markets, messy daily headlines but going nowhere fast (rates), Eq markets higher (lower VIX etc), bad news dismissed, back to stretched valuations, USD not exactly rallying, UST's long-end near 5% no new drama, for now anyway, precious metals up, Trump talking about tariffs on copper too ( #PALL, #silver #XP !....)... They will get to it...eventually in some form... Section 899, titled “Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes,” gives the White House the power to levy a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with US investments'' ...long-term 'US premium' in equities, UST's and USD impacts US Treasury Secretary Bessent accuses China of holding back products that are essential to the US industrial supply chain >>> well, a trade tension/war is on if I'm not mistaken, should have perhaps thought about it before... The US has never defaulted on its debt — except the four times it did/Hill article, old but still worth reading.. The divergence between US treasury yields and the dollar index: A crisis of confidence U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook KKR pulls out of Thames Water deal, on fear of political interference Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus in minutes >> another source of big revenues gone for investment banks.. BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink writes in the FT that the old economic model is coming apart. So what comes next? see his latest below The US has never defaulted on its debt — except the four times it did If the United States government did default now, it would be the fifth time, not the first. There have been four explicit defaults on its debt before Trump tariffs live updates: Trump calls China's Xi "Extremely hard to make a deal with" Friedrich Merz plans €46bn corporate tax breaks to revive German economy Elon Musk calls Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax bill a ‘disgusting abomination’ | Donald Trump | The Guardian Must trying to gain some sympathy from people again...#TSLA suffered too much.. too late, damage done? #DOGE Musk calls Trump Big Beautiful Bill disgusting abomination BlackRock on X: "BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink writes in the @FT that the old economic model is coming apart. So what comes next? Read his latest op-ed about the emerging second draft of globalization, built not just to generate prosperity, but to aim it towards the people and places left https://t.co/qJu20i2MMg " / X Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The US dollar is on track for its worst performance in three decades, and I believe this move carries profound implications. This likely marks the beginning of a long-term downward trend for the dollar, with far-reaching implications across global markets in my view. It’s no https://t.co/L9coJvEuHM " / X Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus in minutes | Fortune Meta’s going to revive an old nuclear power plant Japan births in 2024 fell below 700,000 for first time U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook The divergence between US treasury yields and the dollar index: A crisis of confidence - The Economic Times KKR pulls out of Thames Water deal - Water Magazine 2 Chinese nationals charged with smuggling 'potential agroterrorism' fungus into US: DOJ - ABC News Dutch government falls as Wilders far-right party exits coalition South Korea's opposition leader Lee Jae-myung wins presidential election Jacob King on X: "Bitcoin’s whole story is a staged illusion, scripted by insiders to convince you governments and institutions are “all in” — and that this market is booming on real demand. This is the LARGEST bubble in human history, set to go down as the largest financial scandal ever. Ask" / X

Markets : Bessent may have to choose (UST's or USD), IMHO you can't have it both ways, weaker U.S ISM manufacturing , WS fears foreign tax in budget bill , US pushes countries for best offers by Wednesday as tariff deadline looms, #Gold #XAG #XPT #PALL all nicely up, #SILJ #GDX beginning to look like a decent break UP in tall this , copper should follow, decent JGB auction, but Chinese data was softer overnight Powell said: "The end of the Bretton Woods era in the 1970s, fundamentally changed the conduct of monetary policy." The signals are all over the place. Why bring this up now? Treasury secretary Scott Bessent insists US will ‘never default’ on its debt >>> ....Not nominally.. if the debt is safe, the currency is unsafe #USD Canada Ditches U.S. Defense for $1.25 Trillion EU Pact China's rare earth restrictions: More collateral damage from US export controls. EU and U.S to meet on Wednesday on trade, Eu strongly regrest U.S decision to raise steel tariffs, EU prepared to impose countermeasures is talks fail - the stage is set.. Pantheon / Have bunds considered that Germany spending 5% on defence is €250B per year, at 2024 GDP. Assuming a 10Y implementation of the infrastructure fund, that's €300B a year, just on those two. That implies, holding other components equal, a 6x rise in annual net bund issuance BBG / A gloomy outlook for US assets. DoubleLine joined Pimco and TCW in shunning 30-year Treasuries, shifting to shorter maturities amid worries about US debt >>> finally coming through with what's been pretty obvious for a while #UST supply...it's the bonds or the currency, Bessent and Trump actually 'welcome' a weaker USD Malaysian PM Anwar delivered a quiet but firm rebuttal to US pressure "I just got back from China last week," Dimon said. "They're not scared, folks. This notion that they're going to come bow to America, I wouldn't count on that." There’s a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the U.S., up 20.3% from a year ago and the highest dollar amount ever China's rare earth restrictions: More collateral damage from US export controls China's May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment China says U.S. undermined Geneva trade deal after Trump accusations ISM Manufacturing PMI shows US. production weakening in May Wall Street fears foreign tax in budget bill may reduce allure of US assets BOJ's Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth re-accelerates | Reuters (1) Gold Telegraph ⚡ on X: "Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said: "The end of the Bretton Woods era in the 1970s, fundamentally changed the conduct of monetary policy." The signals are all over the place. Why bring this up now? 🤔 https://t.co/bly9BTvTb6 " / X Trump doesn't like TACO. USD breaking down? | Saxo Market Call Canada Ditches U.S. Defense for $1.25 Trillion EU Pact Copper price must double to meet future mining needs — study - MINING.COM Trump advisers say tariffs 'not going away' amid legal fight 'UK must do all it can to minimise negative Brexit effects', says Bank of England Governor German border police's expulsion of asylum seekers unlawful, court rules | Reuters Dutch far-right leader Wilders threatens to quit government coalition | Reuters 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "At Shangri-La, 🇲🇾 Malaysian PM Anwar delivered a quiet but firm rebuttal to US pressure: “Our approach is one of active non-alignment… not to set one power against another, but to maximize our own strategic space.” Translation: ASEAN doesn’t buy Hegseth’s Cold War script. https://t.co/5JgsvOHpPv " / X Mount Etna erupts leaving tourists fleeing for their lives | The Standard Valterra Platinum: Shares rise on London debut after Anglo American demerger Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market Home Sellers are now sitting on $700 Billion worth of inventory, the largest amount ever recorded 👀 https://t.co/CSW9jrLjK0 " / X

Markets : UKR/RU drones attacks deep into Russia, Bessent unhappy with China (rare earth), DOGE brought nothing (probably a NET COST), BoJ warning on JGB (JPY), NVDA's earnings need some 'clarification' (must follow story!), chaos in France as their club wins the CL, go figure >>>> equity markets rallied about 1pct into month-end close, looks like giving that up on open this week, SPX500 trading just under 5900, big picture, valuations are high, too high given macro picture and geopolitics (lighten up on risk, hedge some exposure and wait for opportunities) Even if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration on tariffs, the US effective average tariff rate would still settle in the 15-18% range, by JP Morgan estimates.  Tariffs are a central pillar to Trump’s economic agenda and the administration will likely turn to other available options to impose tariffs Trump : "We're not looking to make sneakers and t shirts. We want to make military equipment.” - Trump Does anyone want to tell Donald that the U.S. produces more military equipment annually than the rest of the world combined? Bessent : China is "withholding some of the products that they agreed to release during our agreement." >>> basically...admitting that the US cant impose further tariffs to China without the U.S suffering economically... NVDA’s revenue from Sing reached a record high of $9 billion last quarter — that's 20% of total revenue , and doesn't include an additional $5.5 billion in sales to China and HK. This is a total of $15 bn, a 3rd of all revenue last Q, is tied to China... >>>> NVIDIA Warns It May Struggle to Compete in China’s AI Market if Restrictions Persist, Raising Risk of a Business Foreclosure Marco Rubio officially announced that anyone who criticizes Israel will NOT be granted a visa to enter the United States The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses - braced for higher rates #USDJPY should head south again, together with geopolitics, equity should be weaker #DOGE Trump is now reportedly asking if DOGE is all just “bullshit” after it was revealed that it is on track to cost taxpayers more money than it supposedly saved. “Was it all bullshit?” Trump asked aides Musk’s interview went great: Reporter: What is your thought on the ban of foreign students, you were one of those kids, right? Musk: “I think we want to stick to talking about spaceships.” Reporter: I was told that any topic is good. Musk: “Well no.” Morgan Stanley sees the Dollar falling ~10% on slowing US growth and amid continued uncertainty over Dollar's safe-haven status >>> there will be an increasing amount of investment bank coming up with similar calls..The U.S. Dollar is currently 15% overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs Ukraine drones 'emerged from trucks' before strikes on bombers during major attack in Russia - BBC News Ukraine stages audacious attack on airfields deep in Russian territory The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses - braced for higher rates — TradingView News (1) Spencer Hakimian on X: "“The deficit is already lower than last year and will continue to decline over the next four years.” - Scott Bessent Straight up lies. Shameless. https://t.co/YreaCXL6dO " / X Why Scott Bessent wants to make it easier for banks to own Treasurys (1) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US Treasury Secretary Bessent just now: China is "withholding some of the products that they agreed to release during our agreement." He confirms these products are rare earth minerals and says "maybe it's a glitch in the system, maybe it's intentional." Is China violating the https://t.co/kyzf0Tk4s6 " / X Elon Musk on DOGE and why he doesn't want to "take responsibility for everything the administration's doing" - CBS News NVIDIA Warns It May Struggle to Compete in China's AI Market if Restrictions Persist, Raising Risk of a Business Foreclosure Allies cancel orders of F-35s, the fighter jets that will cost $2 trillion Nick Clegg says asking artists for use permission would ‘kill’ the AI industry | The Verge Already taken, big Ai firms too big now already, law is lightyears behind, businesses develop in months rather than decades in the 21st century, the law changes still based on 19th century style.. Melting Permafrost in Siberia is Threatening Russia’s Energy Industry — International Relations Review Perma not so perma anymore.. PSG win Champions League: Two dead and hundreds of arrests across France following final | Football News | Sky Sports Man attacks Colorado crowd with firebombs, 8 people injured Nationalist Nawrocki wins Polish presidential election – POLITICO Sources: Mediators pressing Hamas to withdraw their objections to Witkoff deal | Israel National News Fruit and veg from EU set to get cheaper as UK axes border checks in Brexit reset