Markets : #USD ''The US will sacrifice the dollar to save the bond market. It doesn't matter who is in power or how tough they act... When push comes to shove, they will always choose to print to save the bond market'' Greenspan and any of his successor.., Oil’s war premium is unwinding again, Brent has dropped almost 9% in 4 days as the market increasingly prices a US-Iran exit ramp, The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, came in at 3.7% YoY, and GDP was 1.5% QoQ (so slow...and inflation is high-er still...), NVDA rallies on strong results (AI-fueled sales surge to extend into 2028), Bank of Korea lift rates to 3% (+25bps), US Diesel supplies hit 23y lows as demand season looms, Wheat his a 3y high as Russia prepares to escalate war, Europe’s gas stores are running low — and prices could top 100 euros this winter Trump plan to raise borrowing limit on shaky ground as debt roils bond market Qatar is forecast to contract 8.6% in 2026, steepest decline among GCC states, Iran and Oman agree to share Strait of Hormuz revenue #debasement trade : Jeffrey Currie: I can see $10,000 gold and $300 silver #crude The idea that the US government decides what oil prices do and uses trading firms to implement it is ludicrous in a 5 billion barrel daily paper market / Thread, and Morgan Stanley has RAISED its 4th quarter Brent crude oil forecast to $100/bbl German Chancellor Merz: "We have to get out of this climate of gloom and frustration" OpenAI’s Jalapeño AI chip brings new ‘threat’ to Nvidia margins Why Did John Ratcliffe Go to Moscow? Despite Trump’s claims, the CIA director’s visit was anything but routine. It might be a sign that Putin is getting more dangerous From escalation to exit ramp why oils war premium is unwinding again | Saxo Jackson Hole could trigger dollar, bonds sell-off, market watchers say Ranked: Which Countries Hold the Most U.S. Debt? Nvidia makes bold $108B promise in blockbuster earnings, but issues a warning - TheStreet OpenAI Jalapeño AI chip challenges Nvidia in inference Qatar's Economy to Contract 8.6% This Year What the CIA Director’s Mysterious Trip to Moscow Could Mean - The Atlantic Bank of Korea raises rate to 3% in first consecutive post-pandemic hike Merz Targets 1% Growth As Germany Moves To Revive Economy – Arise News U.S. Diesel Reserves Sit Near 23-Year Lows | OilPrice.com SK Gas pays record $5.3m to jump Panama Canal queue - Splash247 Europe’s gas stores are running low — and prices could top 100 euros Rising debt concerns threaten Trump plan to raise borrowing limit through 2029 Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Give Conflicting Accounts of Four-Country Blackout - The Times Of Central Asia Always ...In gold we trust. My latest on the dollar debasement trade Gold is on a tear – and its easy to explain why Michael Pettis on X: ""China’s banking crisis in the 2000s was resolved by transferring the costs to households through financial repression—a decision that recapitalized the banks while exacerbating the structural imbalances that continue to shape the Chinese economy today." As Chinese debt" / X Lukas Ekwueme on X: "Jeffrey Currie: I can see $10,000 gold and $300 silver. The main driver is the debasement trade. The war has fooled us into believing that inflation is bearish for gold and silver because of the fear of higher interest rates. But Bessent's/Warsh's actions proved what I have https://t.co/Bnydw0O7Xc" / X Barchart on X: "Wheat soars to highest price in more than 3 years 📈 📈 Goodbye sandwiches 🥪 😭 https://t.co/MuEtBK2PY3" / X

Markets : NVDA earnings after the bell, expect a move up to +/- 7%, U.S. Banks are currently facing unrealized losses of $326.7 Billion, Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as US holds back on secondary sanctions, Bessent’s bond intervention puts US Treasury on collision course with Fed. Increased purchases of debt threaten to undermine central bank chief Kevin Warsh’s bid to tame inflation. (FT), Meta, US states have discussed settling teen social media harm case, ECB's Schnabel Says Rates Must Rise More on Resilient Economy, $70bn 5 year UST auction today, details live later on here Live US Debt Monitor >>> NVDA earnings + Jackson Hole are both events that have been known to move markets ! China ramping up Fiscal Stimulus in 2H to secure growth/Shanghai Securities News, China's central bank is injecting 500 billion yuan into its banking system to fund government bond sales, more liquidities.. Chipmakers are increasingly using their own balance sheets to help customers keep buying more and more compute and broadcom is becoming a textbook example - Bloomberg >>> how long can this circular economy continue at this pace..!!.. SEC reportedly subpoenas Wall Street banks over AI hedge fund Situational Awareness’s near collapse AI-generated music will be excluded from Australia’s music charts Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as US holds back on secondary sanctions ECB Likely to Raise Interest Rates Further Amid Inflation Risks President Trump's approval drops to 33 percent as midterms approach ''Seen through that lens, every “gymnastic” of the past month is the same policy: keep the pawn shop open, liquid and cheap'' Andreas Steno Larsen on X: "Explainer: Why Bessent cannot stop talking about repo markets (and why YOU should care) " / X Meta, states have reportedly discussed settling teen social media harm case EU records first trade deficit since 2023 | Euractiv Reports: SEC subpoenas banks over Situational Awareness blow-up How Canada could hit back to hurt the US economy - and Trump Eurointelligence | Geopolitics and economics from a European perspective Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "🇨🇳 #China to Ramp Up Fiscal Stimulus in 2H to Secure Growth: Report - Shanghai Securities News ➡ China’s fiscal stimulus is set to ramp up in 2H — with ample headroom for further policy support — as Beijing moves to expedite fiscal spending and revive domestic demand, the" / X Nvidia shares set for $280 billion price swing after earnings, options show | Reuters Tungsten West Secures Proposed £71m UK Government Funding For Hemerdon Restart The UK government have backed a strategic mining asset... finally..but well done Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are currently facing unrealized losses of $326.7 Billion 🤯 👀 Losses have grown each of the prior 2 quarters https://t.co/PB8xMtbc86" / X

U.S. Corn Belt farmers face cost surge as Iran war deepens grain sector crisis Druck's message to Bessent : you making a mistake by buying back bonds >>> "Anyone who says we don’t have to cut entitlements is lying. We can either cut them now or we’re going to cut them later. But if we cut them later, it’s going to be much more painful." >>> take the pain pill now, or it'll be a lot worse later on..! >>> thing is it probably won't happen, spending cuts never won any party any election, Wall Street guys don't want to face reality, calling for cuts that will never happen...! the living standards will adjust via a USD readjustment, the whole exercise is not too different than Yellen cutting coupon which they will probably do, private sector, banks will be 'force' to soak up bill issuance.. Markets : Bessent is wrong, as discussed laely (the maths don't add up).., but he can keep doing it for a while and push back the 'endgame' for a little later, probably, 10's UST's still 4.7%!.., Germany's 10-Year Yield is at its highest level in more than 15 years, BTC 80K (the debasement response was pretty immediate..), S&P 500 dividend yield falls to lowest level in history, Uranium hits highest price in almost 7 months, Chinese Stocks are approaching their worst underperformance relative to the S&P 500 in history (opportunity) >>> overall equity markets holding up (NVDA earnigns and Jackson Hole - 2 big events ahead could trigger volatility), USD to stay offered, GOLD, BTC up etc Iran sanctions threat falls flat: the Trump administration warned countries to sever business ties with Iran or face secondary penalties in what it billed as an "economic D-Day," but Washington stopped short of imposing any measures or naming targets, leaving markets largely unmoved >> more show than tell, for now anyway German investigators find third drone and suspected explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport, local media says US Treasury buybacks a 'mistake' costing credibility, says Druckenmiller - AOL Nick Timiraos on X: "Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally. "I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee" / X Barchart on X: "S&P 500 dividend yield falls to lowest level in history 📉 📉 https://t.co/xFBmcUXtto" / X Uranium - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News U.S. Corn Belt farmers face cost surge as Iran war deepens grain sector crisis Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: China Chinese Stocks are approaching their worst underperformance relative to the S&P 500 in history 📉 📉 https://t.co/4LpKPMQVg9" / X China says its cooperation with Iran should not be disrupted Trump targets Iran’s trade lifelines — here are the countries most exposed What the renewed Black Sea blockade means for Ukraine’s farmers - France 24 German investigators find third drone and suspected explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport, local media says | Euronews

''Bessent’s running battle with the bond market starts to look like his boss’s war in Iran'' Markets : Nvidia just told Microsoft, Google, and Oracle their AI bills are going up 15%, NVDA earnings on Wednesday, always pretty key for general Ai sentiment (circular economy etc), BABA down 10% in HK, Samsung disappointed, Anthropic IPO details coming out, U.S. has just 41 days of crude oil inventory left, the lowest level in half a century, GOLD has broken back well above 200dma around 4'500$ >>> overall 'debasement' trade came back pretty swiftly, was only a matte of time, Bessent's attempt to control/manipulate bond market can/will backfire, could be the beginning of the big debasement trade 2.0 >> it's the bond market or the USdollar.., can't have your cake and eat it, seems pretty obvious that IF a choice has to be made, and IMHO the market is beginning to do just that... the USDollar will be the fall guy... (Bessent intervening with BoJ might be a sign-push....), Gold bigger than UST in CB reserves by now, main play (but consider also XAG, PLAT, PALL, Copper etc)...and BTC of course Anthropic seems to have built one of the best models available but its customers don’t appear willing to pay much more to use it - FT Warsh seeks to soothe investors’ nerves as signs of economic strain mount. Economists criticise Fed chair’s communication strategy as policymakers prepare to gather at Jackson Hole symposium US vows 'economic D-Day' as Iran threatens to halt all oil exports. The U.S. threatened Iran with what it called "the greatest ​financial offensive ever marshalled" as it prepared to roll out economic sanctions on Monday that target Iran's trade partners. (Reuters) => Oil falls as US prepares to unveil new Iran sanctions Why the World’s Largest Megaproject Collapsed | WSJ - Video Zurich to launch 35-hour working week pilot scheme 227,500 properties filed for foreclosure in the first half this year, a 21% increase from last year and a 30% increase from two years ago China acquired +40 tonnes of gold in June via the London OTC market, marking their 2nd-largest monthly purchase since early 2025 Live updates: US set to unveil ‘economic D-Day’ sanctions on Iran | CNN Iran warns of Hormuz ship seizures ahead of Bessent's planned sanctions push Bossing the bond market around never works Nvidia stock steadies as AI server price hikes and Q2 earnings expectations shape outlook Why the World’s Largest Megaproject Collapsed | WSJ Founder who blamed $300mn fraud on head injury sentenced to prison Barron Trump, 20, Now Worth $150 Million — More Than Mom, Melania — From Crypto And $39 Energy Drink Barchart on X: "227,500 properties filed for foreclosure in the first half this year, a 21% increase from last year and a 30% increase from two years ago 🤯 👀 https://t.co/DDqYRBzTDS" / X Zurich sets out framework for 35-hour working week trial - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss individual taxation to be introduced in 2032 - SWI swissinfo.ch Sounds like a great idea, but execution will be next to impossible.. The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: China acquired +40 tonnes of gold in June via the London OTC market, marking their 2nd-largest monthly purchase since early 2025. This is 167% more than the official +15 tonnes reported by China's central bank for June. This also follows an estimated +48 tonnes https://t.co/aSPZysWtWS" / X Speaker Mike Johnson downplays reported Jared Kushner–Hakeem Jeffries meeting Charlie Bilello on X: "US National Debt has moved from $19 trillion to $40 trillion over the past 10 years, a 106% increase. It will go much higher in the years to come because there's absolutely no political will to stop the deficit spending before it becomes a crisis. Video: https://t.co/F3yBDMeN1g https://t.co/clOsgNwbjk" / X

Debasement trade is back on, GOLD, BTC etc.. Bessent: "Our message to our allies, our trading partners, is that global growth is the way to take care of this mountain of debt" >>> don’t know about you, but the more I listen to Bessent—and genuinely try to understand what he is saying—the more it comes across as desperation: talking endlessly about anything and everything, while mumbling through it all with his rather smug face, losing the market's respect... US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There's a very good chance we have seen a peak in the fiscal deficit ... (Bookmark this one!)... Markets : 'the' trade ''Long gold/ short @SecScottBessent'' and/or the return of the 'debasement trade', by the way the U.S (not only..) will NEVER repay the huge amount of debt, debt is repaid by 'inflation', GOLD is real value, fiat currencies-money debases, not sur anyone can stop this... OWN GOLD (silver, PLAT, PALL..etc..), #BTC up on U.S. Treasury Department proposes GENIUS Act stablecoin rule, UK consumer confidence improves, crude on 1month high too not helping the inflation outlook + commods rally, copper etc.., #USD ''debasement'' trade more real than ever, again...It's either the bond market you protect or the currency... the USD is the natural release valve IMHO... Gold, the first battle of critical minerals war begins! The United States imposes sanctions on Chinese gold companies, and the China Gold Association solemnly declares The price of a pound of ground beef is close to $7/lb..sky is the limit ! Jeff Currie : Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it / Thread Stan Druckenmiller told Scott Bessent exactly what it would take to stop Washington from spending: "the clowns in Washington - unless they get a signal from the bond market, they're just going to keep spending" - video Texas has now halted up to 1,800 data center projects Switzerland, China agree on a trade deal giving 99.8% of Swiss exports duty-free access to Beijing Treasury yields rebound, wiping out the decline following Bessent's intervention ''band-aid on a bullet hole'.... Scott Bessent takes on bond vigilantes in $32tn Treasury market US long-term bonds slide as Bessent intervention fails to soothe investors Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the Treasury Сarm1ne on X: "Stan Druckenmiller told Scott Bessent exactly what it would take to stop Washington from spending: "the clowns in Washington - unless they get a signal from the bond market, they're just going to keep spending" this is him explaining the arithmetic nobody runs on corporate https://t.co/qvll2IV8Ky" / X China Gold Association strongly opposes U.S. entity list move, denies forced labor allegations-Xinhua Megatron on X: "🇺🇸🇨🇳 The Chinese are now making fun of the US financial situation and the massive $40 trillion debt https://t.co/TJH72SepYR" / X U.S. Treasury Department proposes GENIUS Act stablecoin rule James E. Thorne on X: "Ignore Bessent at Your Peril Machiavelli’s central lesson of statecraft was simple: dangers seen from afar can be managed; dangers ignored until they are obvious become unmanageable. Wall Street should apply that rule to Scott Bessent. Ignore him at your peril. The bond market https://t.co/BBVzxhPnZc" / X This is fiscal dominance with a digital dimension. Treasury increasingly sets the incentives; the Federal Reserve reacts within constraints shaped by debt service, market functioning and dollar strategy. Wall Street keeps parsing buybacks, currency intervention, stablecoin legislation and Bitcoin as unrelated events. They are not. Debt is the constraint. Yield management is the response. Digital dollars are the distribution channel. And Bessent is defining the rules. The Return of the Debasement Trade - Robin J Brooks Where commercial real estate demand is highest, according to NAR data Hedgeye on X: "The price of a pound of ground beef is close to $7/lb. https://t.co/XKeFGk9jpS" / X Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ on X: "Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it. Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one. Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement. Commodities are the" / X Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Give Conflicting Accounts of Four-Country Blackout - The Times Of Central Asia Consumer Confidence Climbs As Retailers Await Burnham's Budget New Texas data center projects frozen until state audits them Alibaba shares fall 5% as AI spending drives 75% drop in net income Nvidia Plots China Comeback With New AI Chip — The Information Switzerland, China agree on a trade deal giving 99.8% of Swiss exports duty-free access to Beijing | Today News

$ 40'000'000'000'000 the U.S made it ! winning !, and just in time, as if by magic... in comes YCC some kind of QE, with crude prices still high(er), risk of inflation remains, and risk of FED tightening, particularly is the USD weakens sharply, at some point Markets : This looked like a 180 degree turnaround from new FED man Warsh !!... pretty significant event !...kind of papering the cracks (keep spending, keeping a lid on long-end #duration while having to potentially hike), the beginning of the end game, the USDollar should get battered really...(it is the release valve..) >>> Government bonds recovered on U.S treasury announcement (YCC!..), USD weakens, PM's take off and risk likes it broadly speaking, as you would expect!.., crude remains elevated though (infl risk), FED minutes 'divided', Oz labour market softens, China leaves rates unchanged.. OpenAI’s Q2 sales show Tepid growth compared with Anthropic Trump’s Plan to Squeeze Iran’s Economy Will Live or Die in Dubai. The United Arab Emirates, long Tehran’s gateway to global commerce and finance, has pledged to crack down. But it’s complicated...! US debt crosses $40 trillion threshold after doubling under Trump and Biden. Total U.S. debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is ​brewing as ballooning costs for social safety-net programs and interest payments far outstrip revenues held back by tax cuts Samsung hikes chipmaking prices by up to 15% on demand spike Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan sentenced to life in prison Trump bemoans Fed interest rate policy, says U.S. should be paying much less The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What the government is doing now is the equivalent of holding a 30-year mortgage at a 3% interest rate and refinancing it into a 4% one-year adjustable-rate mortgage. In other words, you are replacing longer-term, lower-cost debt with shorter-term, higher-cost debt. Now apply" / X US Treasury Just Doubled Size Of Liquidity Support Buyback — El-Erian Says Move Is More About Possibility Of Broader Deployment Of Yield Curve Control — TradingView News Why markets calls it QE : US yield curve twists expose Trump's and Bessent's rate dilemma | Reuters Trump’s Plan to Squeeze Iran’s Economy Will Live or Die in Dubai - tovima.com US national debt crosses record $40 trn, five months after it hit $39 trn | World News - Business Standard Fed July 2026 FOMC minutes: rate hike debate details Samsung hikes chipmaking prices by up to 15% on demand spike, sources say | Reuters The Spectator Index on X: "BREAKING: Trump threatens the 'MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY' against Iran. https://t.co/HXHTq3xgrH" / X '''If he tries secondary sanctions China will respond aggressively and the American financial markets will collapse much more rapidly. If he doesn’t try secondary sanctions people will ignore this post like they ignore the others''' (2) Andy Constan on X: "The fact that the buyback increase "ends" the day after the election is funny for sure but those posting about it are dopey. The date was chosen because that's the next QRA. At that point the treasury can continue to protect the long wnd more directly by cutting auction" / X Goldman studied where AI is squeezing labor markets. Here's what it found Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan sentenced to life in prison Exclusive | OpenAI’s Second-Quarter Sales Show Tepid Growth Compared With Anthropic - WSJ First mover advantage weakening...! Сarm1ne on X: "Stan Druckenmiller told Scott Bessent exactly what it would take to stop Washington from spending: "the clowns in Washington - unless they get a signal from the bond market, they're just going to keep spending" this is him explaining the arithmetic nobody runs on corporate https://t.co/qvll2IV8Ky" / X

Fed minutes in focus: Investors will scrutinise the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting for signs of how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation against a cooling labour market. Markets currently price around a 35% probability of a Sep rate hike Iran update : Trump takes Iran hard line as Hormuz tensions set new normal Markets : crude firmer yet again Brent +$90, bond yields a little softer overnight 10's UST 4.68%, China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years ('households deleveraging cycle!!¨¨ , property prices down 30-50% since 2019 record highs, record low yields etc.. / Thread) U.S Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history & Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade (charts below), PHP hits an all time lows vs USD, THE AVERAGE AI TOKEN PRICES ARE NOW DOWN OVER 50% OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS (good for users, should be negative for stock prices of related companies..) >>> few selling-hedges put on last 2 days in QQQ as UST yields hit new slight higher highs and USD rallied, all small moves, but reversed overnight The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT (already has..) Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn (Thread) - once upon a time Germany exported card to China, now reversing!).. UK inflation accelerates: CPI rose to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, driven largely by higher energy costs, increasing pressure on the Bank of England and potentially limiting the scope for further rate cuts Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge - TheStreet #USDPHP https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/currency UK inflation hits four-month high as energy bills reignite interest-rate risk Trump says no Iran talks planned as Hormuz tensions rise Shanghai Macro Strategist on X: "The year 2026 marks the official beginning of Chinese households’ deleveraging cycle. The definitive end of the household debt supercycle lies at the heart of the secular weakness in consumption—and, by extension, the prolonged decline in consumer-oriented equities. https://t.co/Sj5F1igiuB" / X Nic on X: "The ECB is worried about the AI bubble. Not because of Europe's stocks. Because of America's. Euro area households hold ~€440B in US tech, mostly via ETFs they think are diversified. If the Mag7 corrects, redemptions force funds to sell, deepening the crash. A US AI fallout https://t.co/BGyh5Z0uOa" / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany, where the China shock is becoming a serious industrial threat. Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn. At the same time, China is exporting more than 1mn cars a month, while weak domestic demand forces its https://t.co/zR3fSf2oUb" / X Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK, China, data shows | Reuters 'Business Becoming Difficult As Memory Prices Climb 500% In 12 Months': Sridhar Vembu How Small Businesses Can Control AI Spending with Token-Based Pricing | BizTech Magazine Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "📈 The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT *Hyperscalers are now issuing huge amounts of debt, at the exact same time governments already have enormous financing needs. 💰 Amazon and Alphabet issue bonds in both dollars and euros while the https://t.co/UsW2AcV629" / X Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: China China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years 📉 📉 https://t.co/Vp5wrgQXW6" / X Barchart on X: "Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/sY7nS5yOCW" / Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade 🤯 👀 https://t.co/sOPdHt5mYs" / X

Markets : While global yields are surging... China’s are plunging, 10 year yields in China now 1.67 % !!.., U.S. interest payments are now 3.3% of GDP, the highest level in history (chart available), US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history (Thread), 18days since the U.S Treasury JPY intervention and back tosquare one >>> starting to feel like we’re reaching peak AI bubble, ALWAYS hard to call such things but the drumbeat is growing louder, after the recent short-covering, might well be time to 're-hedge' a bit of QQQ risk from here Trump approval falls to 33%, lowest of his presidency. An overwhelming majority of Americans are concerned the U.S. war with Iran will last a long time, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump says Iran won't make deal he thinks is needed, threatens to bomb Oman, Iran was “not showing any interest in doing something that makes sense for us”, US special envoy Jared Kushner told Fox News. “They have to be willing to make a real deal.” Iran threatens new offensive while US rules out extending ceasefire deal. Outward progress towards peace talks and a resumption of oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt Morgan Stanley sends a blunt Tesla message to investors China Equities: Early-cycle, under-owned & still hated (opportunity..) BHP’s copper profits outstrip iron ore for first time Stellantis is recalling almost 1 million vehicles Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK, China, data shows This IS a problem... The Hormuz Letter on X: "BREAKING: US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history. Food is about to get a lot more expensive. Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by https://t.co/9dS9TTnJMy" / X https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP30Y Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Fell in June, Led by Japan Drop | Stock Market News Morgan Stanley sends a blunt Tesla message to investors - TheStreet Nasdaq plans 23-hour trading sessions from December 2026 to meet rising global demand for US stocks | Stock Market News >>> 'tokenisation' has really got them worried, gotta 'HYPE' it all further... Eliant Capital on X: "China Equities: Early-cycle, under-owned & still hated https://t.co/4U6tf6lUCG" / X Anthropic says annualized revenue climbed to $65 billion in July Stellantis's CEO used to run quality control. Ram just recalled 1.27 million trucks on his watch. BHP’s copper profits outstrip iron ore for first time The AI boom: rational enthusiasm or the next dot-com bubble? Billionaire Ray Dalio says today's artificial intelligence (AI) market echoes 1929 and 2000. History says investors should watch valuations closel

U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure!, we should hit $40trn debt today, remarkable achievement from the Trump administration...winning! Markets : Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell and Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high - GDP grows only 1.1% yoy, missing expectations as one would expect... (FT-article available for blog subscribers) >>> FED rate cut exp down to 30% for Sep (60% highs) following soft inflation data and weaker macro, USDollar softer (positioning got very long USDlast week...), PM's higher as you would expect, crude $80-85 , Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry, markets broadly speaking pretty steady and happy on low vols, FED expectations for Sep lowered/helping, for now we remain in low vol environment, watch Trump/iran/crude for clues and duration yields... Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps Fed rate-hike expectations fall: Markets have cut the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month to around 30% from 50%, after weaker US retail sales and consumer sentiment data raised concerns about the strength of the economy Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree. Swiss officials say gangs from France are responsible for a recent rise in ‘homejackings’, sometimes at gunpoint Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness Secretive Wall Street trading firm wrongfooted by July AI rout (apparent hero few months ago to this... stay humble everyone !)... OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for the companies actually building the models Strait of Hormuz shipping slows as U.S.-Iran ceasefire nears end Barchart on X: "JUST IN 🚨: Copper on track for its highest closing price in history 📈 📈 https://t.co/KFpuMf8FEG" / X Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness Barchart on X: "U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/XIx9WqBJC4" / X Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps - SWI swissinfo.ch Basel’s world-beating pharma hub fights for place in new global order - SWI swissinfo.ch Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "🧠 OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for https://t.co/aLoUcbGNkA" / X

Markets : steady US inflation numbers, no big moves either way, steady as you like, crude steady, U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021, Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to lowest level in 3 months, Uranium hits highest price since February, JPM : Speculators are now the most long on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade #USD , 10-Year Treasury Note Auction drew an interest rate of 4.683%, the highest since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, South Korea's 30-Year Bond Yield hits highest level in history, UK economy grew 0.4% in second quarter (steady), and why not... Anthropic investors bet on $2tn valuation in record IPO, Tether : This Crypto Platform buys Gold Like a Central Bank—and for the very same reasons, can't make this up, just buy and hold Gold.. Trump's U.S : Lowest Munitions Stock in history, Lowest Petroleum Stock in history, Highest Nation Debt in history & Lowest Approval Rating in history... winning! Chinese government has disclosed for the first time that it has officially included the internationalization of RMB in its 15th 5-year plan. All of state-owned top institutions bullish on gold, Capital in China is flooding into gold ETFs Iran set to join the New Development Bank, a financial institution established by BRICS AI : Is this circular financing? No! It’s just us helping our partners raise billions in debt and us backstopping 25% of the deal for customers so then they can then buy our GPUs. If anything it’s spherical / Thread Crude : Exxon, Chevron and Total, all been saying similar things, now Saudi Aramco's take on the situation.... : it will take 18months to get back to near normal JGB's JPY : The Bank of Japan has to hike. The latest producer price inflation came in at 7.2% in July. Inflation linked bankruptcies are surging - hollowing out industry Tether Buys Gold Like a Central Bank—for the Same Reasons - Barron's Tens of billions in funds poured into gold ETF__ finance headlines __ Sina Finance U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021 Aramco: Inventory renewal would take 18 months - Breaking The News Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "Jim Rogers is holding cash even though inflation’s eating away at it. I asked him why and this was his answer: When panic hits, money flows into whatever people see as safe. And for now, that’s still the dollar. So the US dollar goes up. He wants cash ready for that moment. https://t.co/ZXraFfkwY2" / X Gold vs. Bitcoin* 1 Year: +30% vs. -47% 2 Years: +76% vs. +7% 3 Years: +125% vs. +116% 5 Years: +144% vs +40% *Long-term track records > 5 years are MEANINGLESS on an asset class that drops 70-80% every few years. SIZE drawdowns knock MOST investors OUT of the game, FACT. Google DeepMind: Koray Kavukcuoglu takes over in frontier AI push Investors in Dario Amodei’s Anthropic bet on $2.8trn valuation in record IPO Ed Zitron on X: "Is this circular financing? No! It’s just us helping our partners raise billions in debt and us backstopping 25% of the deal for customers so then they can then buy our GPUs. If anything it’s spherical https://t.co/b2K2e3BBGc" / X Basel zeigt der Welt, wie Flussschwimmen funktioniert - News - SRF

US July Budget deficit set to more than double in July as the daily increase hits $10bn check it out on the PVM debt monitor Live US Debt Monitor UST : #duration long end yields are as much about the monthly US budget deficit numbers as they are about CPI, so super key data again, with the expected release of the 26th July auctions at 8pm CET >>> The Global Fiscal Train Wreck...U.S. Treasury is paying $3 billion a day in interest on national debt, says the CBO...US July budget deficit expected to widen sharply to nearly $295bn as fiscal pressures intensify.” “US fiscal gap set to widen in July, keeping $2tn-plus FY26 deficit firmly in focus.” CBO Markets : U.S equity market implied volatility is pretty low right now, so an OUTSIDE CPI number will have a decent impact, for both risk and bonds, then the USDollar, Japan's 2-Year Yield hits 1.64% for the first time since 1995, Panama Canal fees hit record high as El Niño and Iran war choke shipping, there are now over 1.1 million homes for sale in the US, the highest inventory since 2019, Largest Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries Japan sitting there at #1 with roughly $1.2 Trillion worth #USDJPY >>> markets QUIET, ALMOST ASLEEP, so Do watch out later on, watch UST 30's Duration etc.. 10's sitting uncomfortable near recent highs in yields terms 4.69% Wave of US tariff refunds flows back to Chinese firms, buoying profits by millions US Government Borrows $800 Billion In 3 Months "Warsh can talk tough, but the math indicates he has no choice but to keep the printing presses rolling, which means inflation will only move higher." Iran updates : New attacks on shipping as Iran war talks hit fresh impasse. Before the rhetoric escalated again, Pakistan, along with Qatar, had raised hopes that the two sides might be closing in on a deal that would in effect reopen the vital waterway Poorer Americans are struggling to make ‘ends meet’, top Fed official says. Boston central bank branch head Susan Collins would back September interest rate rise inflation remains hot >> today's CPI key CBO: US Treasury spends $3 billion daily on national debt interest | Fortune This week should help answer a key question: is the US economy beginning to crack, or merely cooling? Three releases matter: Today: July CPI. Core consensus is +0.2% month-on-month. A stronger print would revive the prospect of a September Fed hike. Thursday: PPI and jobless claims—testing pipeline inflation and whether July’s 23,000 payroll decline was a one-off or the start of a weaker labour trend. Friday: Retail sales and consumer sentiment—the crucial read on the consumer and broader growth outlook. Core inflation remains around 3.3% and is proving sticky, while the labour market has clearly softened.spglobal+1 Soft data would support a Fed hold, lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar and stronger gold. Hot data would reinforce the stagflation trade: long-dated yields, already elevated, move higher and equities lose some of their support. By Friday, markets should have a much clearer sense of which regime is taking hold The Global Fiscal Train Wreck - Robin J Brooks Why Is Kevin Warsh Getting So Much Grief? U.S. Treasury yields: investors eye key inflation data He's so wrong..but he is a cult like Trump follower...so... Watch CNBC's full interview with White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett >>> “Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking.” The bond market is signalling concern about inflation and do nothing about it will only drive bond yields higher. Situational awareness - do we have it? - Deutsche Bank Research Institute JD Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using Russian port Here's How Nvidia Is Rapidly Becoming the 'Central Bank of AI' - MarketWise Wave of US tariff refunds flows back to Chinese firms, buoying profits by millions | South China Morning Post Panama Canal fees hit record high as El Niño and Iran war choke shipping Pentagon may see one of quantum computing’s first practical winners - TheStreet Swiss National Bank's US stock portfolio hits record high in Q2 Existenzangst von Landwirtschaftsbetrieben wegen teurem Futter - News - SRF BTC chart Barchart on X: "Bitcoin is getting ready for an explosive move 🚨 Bollinger Band width is at its narrowest level since October 2023 ✅ $BTC went on to soar more than 330% from Oct 2023 - Oct 2025 https://t.co/rYwctiAqfL" / X

Iran updates : US President Donald Trump seems to be pursuing a “no war, no peace — just economic pressure” on Iran.., because...America’s depleted weapons stockpiles undermine Trump’s leverage with Iran Markets : crude prices up a bit for the usual reasons, still around $80 WTI, no-one really cares too much at these levels or rather suits most.., USDJPY is back to 159 (155 lows briefly last week - more action required, interventions + rate hike), French 30y yields 4.79% highest since 2008, CHF weakens still at snail pace, but it does weaken (trend), if you like and believe in further BoJ/Bessent JPY interventions, CHFJPY lower long-term is way out of PPP levels!. S&P 500 Price/Book ratio jumps to highest level in history, surpassing the peak of the Dot Com Bubble Nvidia lines up $500 billion in financing as CEO Jensen Huang tells CNBC his chips are ‘investable asset’ >>> so let me get this straight...Larry Fink of BlackRock is comparing Nvidia's $500B fund raise to the creation of Mortgage Backed Securities? I'm sure that MBS instruments have never caused us any issues in the past... UK regulator prepares framework for tokenised gold German truckers take the load as drought hits Rhine shipping. Emergency move to suspend Sunday ban comes as economists warn of hit to country’s GDP growth U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of more than $850 million last week, the largest weekly inflow since April, price unch still low 60K's US court rules Meta, other tech firms must face thousands of lawsuits over social media addiction. A US appeals court on Aug 10 allowed thousands of lawsuits to move forward against Meta Platforms, Alphabet’s Google, ByteDance’s TikTok and Snap Inc’s Snapchat over claims they designed their products to be addictive to young users Nvidia, Wall Street asset managers partner on $500B AI push Japan-U.S. yen intervention: impact on global currency markets Investors Drop Stock Hedges as S&P 500 Rally Drives Options Shift - Bloomberg Munitions shortage constrains Trump's military efforts against Iran German truckers take the load as drought hits Rhine shipping UK regulator prepares framework for tokenised gold Swiss Gotthard road tunnel to close for 12 nights in August - SWI swissinfo.ch Spain imposes border checks on Italian travelers in tit-for-tat move over Ceuta migrants row US President Donald Trump issues backing for under pressure Fifa chief Gianni Infantino - BBC Sport Income investing: Helping your money work for you – The Armchair Trader US social media addiction cases to move forward