UK-US tech pact $41bn / Mining = 1% global Eq only / UBS risk / Powell up next later on today, 25bps exp

Stéphan
Sep 17
4 min read

As the US retreats, can Xi Jinping’s new initiative shape the future world order?
Markets : Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since 1998, UK and U,S agree $42bn tech pact to mark Trump's visit (MSFT 30bn) >> in these markets, hardly anyone dares taking a short position n SPX/QQQ, lost count of how many 'overvalued markets', concentration of risk, massive short VIX (long risk)... that all said FOMC's can be the trigger for a change of momentum in short-term, so watch out, plenty of opportunties in relative value, precious metals (Mining was 11% of global equities in the 1960s, today it’s 1%), HSI up above March highs, USD seems to be entering a new round of weakness too, let's see over next couple of days post FED meeting, Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion, US sales were stronger yesterday (BUT flat for 5years, when adjusted for inflation), we are all ears Mr Powell, 25bps cut most likely and 'data dependent' going forward, 50bps would be seen as politically driven, whatch if he takes back some of the cuts priced in all teh way to end of 2026
Trade : China’s attempt to pivot away from the U.S. starts with this trading hub, Singapore’s exports plunge 11.3%, US warns Canada of potential negative consequences if it dumps F-35 fighter jets, Trump’s China trip many hinge on Boeing and soybean deals, sources say, US in talks to fund multibillion-dollar mining initiative for critical minerals’ (FT), EU executive will adopt new sanctions against Israel on Wed
Geopolitics : Israel presented Syria with proposal for new security agreement, it's tempting to put itin this section : The top 10% of income earners in the US now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, a record high,The EU is discussing a complete ban on entry for Russian tourists, Kellogg: Ukrainians are not the obstacle to peace — Putin is. We are in the last 10 yards of the fight. This war could end tomorrow if he agreed to come to the table and negotiate (Thread)
'Impeachable': Explosive report on Trump's massive crypto 'scandal' stuns observers
AI : the 109 AI stocks in goldman sachs’ tmt ai basket are now valued at $29.2 trillion — nearly equal to the annual u.s. economic output
Bank of America sees nearly $1 trillion market cap potential for gold miners
The world needs to spend $540 billion a year looking for oil and gas to maintain current output by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency
Arkansas farmer: We've got a real disaster with this tariff deal/Thread
Is UBS Too Big for Switzerland After Government’s Capital Demand? - the Swiss government wants the bank to take on more capital to deal with future crises, and unveiled the outlines of a draft law on June 6 that could ultimately force UBS to add as much as $26 billion to its capital cushion. UBS says such a requirement will make it uncompetitive and is limbering up for as many as three years of lobbying and public positioning while a bill moves through the Swiss parliament/BBG
Nestlé chair Bulcke to step down early after CEO’s ouster