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Not sure the Leopold version the world got to know in July 2026 will get a statue.. FOMC final : So many different takes on the FOMC, I don't actually trade bonds much, and I actually like the maximum-confusion press conference !! >>> it probably means that truly understanding how markets work will matter most from here on... rather than CNBC and other pundits being constantly spoon-fed what to think.... Markets : Tech stocks are crashing, long-term rates are at highest levels since 2008, Inflation IS sticky closer to 3-4%, 2 wars waging, gas prices spiked, and seems suddenly Mr Market hates the new Fed chair (in place thanks to Trump & Bessent..!).., And yet…the S&P500 is 2% from all-time highs ....., 10's UST is back to 4.65% (same old levels.., mind you, given inflation levels, it should be more like 5.7%...if it was allowed to trade there by market forces..) let's all calm down..for now anyway >>>> BoJ unch, warns core infl going above 2% target, #JPY interventions detected 163.75 USDJPY down 400pts rapidly..(NEEDS to go sub 200dma 158 area to really worry the USD bulls).., U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.5% in Q2, once the news came out about Leopold, it was the lows, as if often always the case with these large sudden liquidation scenario, Citadel grabs the whole portfolio, vols crush, markets rally, once the cat if out of the bag, its the lows... and overnight KOSPI goes up 15%.. casino royale !, MSFT rallies to the tune of $500bn market cap in ONE day.. Brexit believers should ask one simple question: where do we have more real control today than we did before? (Thread) India’s Sarvam announces it’s developing a trillion-plus parameter AI model from scratch that’s five times cheaper than global rivals Meta’s Case for Its AI Spending Keeps Getting Weaker. The all-out splurge is running into higher costs, borrowing constraints and investor pushback It is clear to me after speaking to Zelenskyy the next 100 days of the Ukraine war will decide its outcome-Donald Tusk Polish PM Blue Owl’s private credit fundraising falls to slowest pace in three years Trump exploded and lost his temper during a security meeting, shouting and cursing out of frustration over the military options presented to him and the lack of progress toward a deal with Iran, per NBC News. A US official adds "after all this time, there is no unity" inside the administration, which is "facing a strategic defeat without clear policy guidance or a decision about where this is going." An ally close to Trump adds the president is "exasperated" and there was "not a real strategy for how long or what they should do." How Leopold Aschenbrenner, the ‘golden child’ of the AI trade, was laid low All ended up at Citadel of course.. AI-focused hedge fund sells all of its stocks BOJ holds rates at 1%, warns of core inflation above target Oracle Brings Google Gemini Models to Enterprise Customers OpenAI discounts GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra, but not Luna AI: The Wheels Are Coming Off - by George Noble The entire AI trade rests on one company that loses money ON PURPOSE. OpenAI is the load-bearing wall holding up the whole thing, accounting for $17.2 billion of Microsoft's Azure spend and driving 69% of its annual growth, which means if the venture money stops, the counterparty risk cascades straight through Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Underneath that sits the accounting trick I've been talking about for months, where hyperscalers stretch data center useful life from 15 years to 25 to bury depreciation and flatter their margins while the GPUs inside go obsolete in three. Banks in talks to lend $15 billion for Anthropic data center backed by Google Yemen's Houthis claim attacking Saudi oil facilities amid escalation Liz Webster on X: "Brexit believers should ask one simple question: where do we have more real control today than we did before? Sovereignty is the practical ability to shape your future, protect your economy and withstand global shocks. On energy, food and trade, Britain has become more https://t.co/8sfdm0XJvl" / X Meta’s Case for Its AI Spending Keeps Getting Weaker - WSJ Blake Morrow on X: "USDJPY just hit the 200dma on intervention https://t.co/559PyedLH3" / X The Great Martis on X: "Japan🇯🇵 is currently executing what may become the most catastrophic monetary policy error in modern financial history. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trapped in a brutal, zero-sum macroeconomic corner: they cannot raise rates aggressively without completely nuking the finances of https://t.co/X6z8kU8mKY" / X

FOMC : Divided Fed holds rates: the central bank left rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote, but chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move, leaving markets guessing and sending yields on 30-year US Treasuries to 5.2%, their highest since 2007, He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." >>> AND that is what they wanted, cut forward guidance, bring in a more 2waqy risk for markets, give less of 'one way bet' for market specs... make sense ! the supply of bonds, durations form govt, AND hyper scalers IS an issue which wasn't priced...>>> The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and "market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." America tried to choke off China’s chip access, but instead pushed China to innovate faster. The result is cheaper, more efficient AI, and China may have gained the edge through necessity rather than brute force If Nvidia is so rich why has its credit costs (5y $ CDS) exploded in the past months? GAAP net income of $45.5bn in Q1 and yet? More like 'Mind the Gap!' Markets : The other Korean index, the KOSDAQ, is nearly back to April 2025 lows!..(60% round trip..), Microsoft and Meta split investors, U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2, South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, in FX land CHF continues to grind lower, as expected, not a whole lot happening on USD side, though slightly softer yesterday as long-end sol doff hard! let's hope this doesn't go the way of JPY and JGB's... US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap so KOSPI down 33% this month... More than 360,000 margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi. 62% of those wiped out were reportedly under the age of 35 Nick Timiraos on X: "Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42" / X The bond market says ''Warsh has lost it, he is nuts' no guidance etc >>> let's just hope USD and UST don't go the way of JPY and JGB's... clearly...if he looses #duration and the long-end it is going to be a biblical mess !...markets can move very quickly these days.... On the other hand, rightly or wrongly Warsh warned of no forward guidance, so it HAS/HD to mean more of a 2way risk and thus higher VOL... At the end of the day he was Trump's choice, chosen by Bessent, and it's backfiring... Greg Yip : This Warsh contradiction has been nagging at me. At Sintra at the start of the month, he took comfort at the recent decline in bond yields, implying bond markets understood low inflation was on the way. Today, he took comfort at higher bond yields, saying they will deliver low inflation. How can this be: that lower bond yields are reasons to feel good about inflation, but higher bond yields are not a reason to feel bad about it? Without him articulating a monetary and economic framework, these statements make it feel like he's winging it. Jim Bianco on X: "The Warsh press conferences aren't going to work in their current form, and it isn't because he's dodging. The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and" / X Trump’s Tariffs Are Sending Some Companies Back to China - The New York Times Drone hits US gas storage tanker at Egypt's Damietta Mediterranean port | The Jerusalem Post Trump: U.S. will hit Iran hard after surprise attack Consumers, AI spending likely supported US economic growth in the second quarter | Reuters Barchart on X: "South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, on track for its worst month in history, surpassing the October 1997 IMF Crisis (-27%) and the October 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-23%) 📉 📉 https://t.co/CqyoIOAXc0" / X It’s great news for holders of Greggs shares Blurred Orbits: Inside China’s Commercial Space Expansion DoorDash launches in-house drone delivery program after FAA certification | Reuters Got to love progress but this is so stupid EXCLUSIVE: US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap | Reuters

Chipmaker valuations are now higher than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. AI may be revolutionary, but the price you pay still matters (chart available on request) Prices for credit default swaps for corporate debt tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nividia have risen to record highs in recent days according to LSEG data (FT) Iran updates : The U.S.-Iran war-cease-fire-MoU-war-again-de-facto-ceasefire has gone on now for 150 days...Brent fell below $88 after Donald Trump said US and Iran are engaged in talks, Markets : Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge (chips & KOSPI sharply down overnight again, Nvidia has signed leases worth up to $50B for a massive Texas data centre, a previously undisclosed commitment, #US IMM Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade >>> momentum change, CTA's turning sellers!, QQQ struggling, chips rout could well continue (see valuations levels..), KOSPI giving back its crazy up moves from Q2 (what else..), watch yields after Warsh in his 2nd FOMC meeting, long-end7duration/credit etc.. GOLD : BoA's fund manager survey : for the first time in years, fund managers see Gold as undervalued, Most institutional investors still do not hold a strategic long-term allocation to gold.. (chart available on request) The 30-Year US Treasury Yield ended last week at 5.17%, its highest weekly close since July 2007, on to Mr Warsh tomorrow to try to convince the market that 'inflation is low'.. Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge Nvidia behind $50B lease on Texas data centre that will use its chips: FT Taiwan Detains Nvidia Employee in Chip Trafficking Probe | Hyperdash News The Next Fed Rate Hike May Be Coming Soon | Seeking Alpha Kevin Warsh’s First Two Months as Fed Chair: What He Changed, and What Could Happen Next - WSJ Trump uses GM stage to launch midterms attack on Democrats | Reuters Wie viele entlässt UBS in nächster Welle? – Inside Paradeplatz Barchart on X: "Tesla $TSLA falls to its most oversold level since March 2025 📉 📉 https://t.co/TyujjSxMct" / X Barchart on X: "CTAs will dump stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week 📉 📉 https://t.co/3OGJwHR9t3" / X Barchart on X: "Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade 📈 💵 🤑 https://t.co/jrZG2bryru" / X Gold Outlook: A healthy reset provides a constructive backdrop – The Armchair Trader

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