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Iran war update : Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for 3 weeks, says Trump, but Oil climbed for a fifth day on a lack of perceived progress between the US and Iran on resuming talks, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively remaining shut. Donald Trump’s social media posts and threats are hindering Tehran’s willingness to engage in peace talks, officials said, Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks, Trump said, creating space for broader talks and easing an obstacle to ending the US-Iran war-BBG, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until $11 trillion in frozen Iranian assets are released. If no proposal is presented within the next 48 hours, the ceasefire may end.” Abbas Araghchi >>> still remains a little shaky.. Markets : confusion, no resolution in Hormuz though for now, but it seems (we hope) they are trying to resolve 'some' issues..., crude prices disagreed yesterday though, equity sold off on some headlines yesterday, but back to where we were most of yesterday-all week, all pretty quiet in FX and bonds, CHF slightly weaker this week (turn?), big MAG7 earnings next week, DeepSeek V4 chatters too Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil DeepSeek unveiled its V4 Flash and V4 Pro AI models, pitching them as its most powerful open-source systems to rival OpenAI and Anthropic Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Russia sold 22 tons of gold in Q1 2026 — nearly 40% of all the net gold it bought across the previous six years, as Crude revenues collapsed (no longer in Q2..) GS : This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries Trump: “I took a lot of heat for saying drugs were going down 500%, 600%, 700%. But we also say sometimes 50%, 60%, it’s a different kind of calculation, and people understand it better.”....ok then #GBP Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Polish PM questions whether US is ‘loyal’ to Europe’s defence Japan core inflation accelerates after five months as Iran war stokes energy worries Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year There you have it : The Tennessee Holler on X: "“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks! https://t.co/9fy5Z7T9CV" / X (1) I Flagged Every Trade - by Peter Girnus "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years Peter Girnus 🦅 on X: "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years. I pulled the case files. https://t.co/pBjk9rITkY" / X Earnings next week ! Mag 7 Earnings Preview April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland DeepSeek Releases DeepSeek V4-Pro & V4-Flash, Delivers GPT 5.4 & Opus 4.6-Level Performance At Fraction Of The Price Microsoft plans first voluntary retirement program for US employees China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "UNUSUAL High‑Impact English Translation Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil Saudi Arabia has effectively halted a massive Israeli‑American trade corridor initiative, triggering intense frustration in Tel Aviv. Riyadh refused to https://t.co/fPyHA7VWU2" / X ...US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a number of allies in the Gulf region and in Asia have requested currency swap lines from the United States to help deal with energy shocks and other fallout from the Middle East war.... Bulgaria’s Kremlin-friendly ex-president wins election in landslide | CNN This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries

#UBS The Swiss government has laid out plans that would force UBS to increase its capital by at least $20bn Iran war update : a lot of confusing comments from far too many different parties.. Trump wants out of Iran for domestic political reasons. But he knows that making a deal resembling the 2015 Obama deal, or one that suggests he's cutting and running, will hurt him politically. If he extends the ceasefire in Iran, it will confirm he only wants a deal. Iran will see right through that. The White House said Donald Trump has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian peace proposal while Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminent-BBG, John Phelan ousted after clashing with defence secretary Pete Hegseth, Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Dozens of ships exiting the Gulf include several loaded with Iranian oil... Markets : CHINA sold oil aggressively (Mercuria CEO), equity markets holding up well, AI related names, MAG7 etc recovered fast from early April rally, bumpy road ahead though, the real pain comes now ( inflation, crude shortages etc), things can turn swiftly, that all said, Trump seems desperate for some sort of 'exit' out of Iran situation, the longer it goes on, the worse it is for him and med-terms..the hard data will get softer from here, specific downgrades in earnings likely too, it's not all bad though if Kevin Marsh is right, and AI kills inflation... but that's for later on.. China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says Japan Finance Minister Katayama: FSA and BoJ will meet with megabanks on Friday to discuss the AI model Mythos Italy has become the second country in the European Union, after France, to exceed €3 trillion in public debt, according to Eurostat data Dutch intelligence says Russia has suffered over 1.2 million military casualties in Ukraine, while Ukrainian losses are estimated at more than 500,000 Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We’re at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won’t be inflationary—we’re in the early innings of a structural decline in prices.” And finally... RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." - not even kidding.. Trump news at a glance: Pentagon replaces secretary of the navy amid US blockade in strait of Hormuz | Trump administration | The Guardian China "Aggressively" Dumps Oil In Tenders As Iran War Reshapes Flows | OilPrice.com Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months, Congress is told - The Washington Post Kevin Warsh's preferred inflation measure could come back to bite him UBS says Swiss capital plan 'disproportionate', would weaken bank and economy Clash Report on X: "Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: Netanyahu presented the Iran War case to us too. The response was no. The prediction was regime change — that people would rise up. None of that happened. Obama said no. Bush said no. Biden said no. We were lied to about what that https://t.co/J7NiWxt67f" / X Russia to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says JPMorgan Says China Property Tipping Point Will Drive Up Stocks - Bloomberg Putin finally admits Russia's economy is in trouble and grasps for answers | Fortune Tesla (TSLA) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates Brian Krassenstein on X: "OMFG! RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." No, you imbecile. That’s a 98.33% drop. No math besides make-believe math makes it 600%. https://t.co/5lmJ24WXur" / X WORDS FAIL !.... how is this even possble, may be we all need to go back to school..

Iran war update : Trump talked to anyone about a done deal, none of it was true, Iran didn't blink, so... we get ''ceasefire extended'' ie. indefinite till they reach some sort of agreement where they both win... >> an angry reaction he got outplayed.. >>> Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran and kept a US blockade in place, while JD Vance called off a trip to Islamabad for negotiations that Iran refused to attend, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the maritime restrictions “an act of war >>> Trump is getting closer to getting out of this war irrespective of outcomes in the Middle East region... Markets : Mythos Ai model in focus, TSLA earnings today, SPACEX reality check, '' Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or cancelled'', Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis #fertilizers >>> equity markets sitting near highs, crude still $90 ca., these negotiations could go on for a while and/or Trump eventually ''walks away'' and lets EU-CHINA and RoW to sort out the mess with Hormuz and the Middle East Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was accessed by a few unauthorized users , a person familiar said. The firm is investigating and has seen no evidence of impacted systems #USD The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity Exclusive-SpaceX says unproven AI Space data centers may not be commercially viable , Filing Shows Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Keeps Blockade as Talks Falter Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal. None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/ https://t.co/4a4jpJLbm3 " / X One of the better 'low jargon' analysis explaining Hormuz crisis (1) (WCTW) The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here ‘Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis | UN News #UAE #USD liquidity Brad Setser on X: " The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity . The Saudis also will need to borrow dollars to get through 1/ https://t.co/moEfi3QARg " / X Iran threatens to 'break US blockade by force' as it issues Hormuz Strait ultimatum Kevin Warsh pledges Fed independence but dodges questions on rates Exclusive-SpaceX Says Unproven AI Space Data Centers May Not Be Commercially Viable, Filing Shows Japan exports rise for seventh month as AI demand blunts Mideast risks for now | Reuters Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure and parts from China — the AI build-out flips the breakers | Tom's Hardware Javier Milei faces the dilemma of lowering inflation or boosting the economy in Argentina | International | EL PAÍS English Sold away gold, economy ruined... tricky path.. Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "The Fed just bought $40.5 billion in US government debt and called it "reserve management" so you wouldn't notice. They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. Changed the name. Same operation. Different press release. Here's what's actually happening. The US government owes" / X FBI Director Kash Patel sues the Atlantic claiming false reporting about drinking, absences | Reuters

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