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Iran war update : It's all happening in Islamabad this week-end !.. . NATO Sec. Gen. Rutte briefed capitals that Trump wants concrete commitments within the next few days for help securing the Strait of Hormuz - diplomats, Israel secretly approves record West Bank illegal settlement, Trump threatened Iran for charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz, saying “they better stop now!” after earlier expressing optimism about a deal. Meanwhile, signs of activity are emerging, with two Japanese tankers heading toward the strait. (BBG), |  Israel will hold direct talks with Lebanon next week, but Benjamin Netanyahu said strikes on Hezbollah targets will continue >> the strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, ahead of weekend talks in Islamabad, going to be quite intense few days!... Markets : “Private Markets’ Software Pain is about to get a lot worse-BBG'', ECB's Sleijpen: ECB will act if needed to keep inflation at target, BOJ is likely to raise interest rate in April, ex-official says, sticky U.S inflation, jobless claims are rising, personal income falling, economy slowing (less than ideal..! and the wars..), Goldman Sachs blames a future of potentially higher stock market volatility on AI (you bet..) >>> Eq markets have almost recovered as if a deal with Iran is nearly done... seems rather premature (as much as we hope so..), might be worth putting a few small few hedges on! FX pretty zz's as bonds moving in tandem, BoJ meeting in in sight in April, FED nomination coming, but not next week by the sound of things US GDP growth falls from 4.4% to 0.5% in Q4 2025 , well below the initially exp+2.8% Japan is considering releasing additional amount of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve (equal to about 20 days of imports) Zelensky officially confirms Ukrainian Special Operations forces are actively deployed in the Middle East and the Gulf! CHINA: "The US is a war addict Throughout its over 240-year history it has been at war for all but 16 years US is the main cause of international disorder global turbulence and regional instability." Carlyle private-credit fund hit with 15.7% in redemption requests Iran war will leave a long-term ‘scar’ on Wall Street, investors warn Iran attacks on crucial Saudi pipeline and production facilities slash kingdom's oil output Trump says Iran should not charge fees to tankers going through Strait of Hormuz Iran war live updates: Netanyahu approves talks with Lebanon but no ceasefire | AP News Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination hearing reportedly delayed — When is next hearing, what's causing hold-up China producer prices turns positive as inflation gets boost from Iran oil shock Goldman Sachs blames a future of potentially higher stock market volatility on AI: "We think the concentration of value in AI-related areas of the market adds to the risk of higher volatility over time  as focus increases on whether the benefits justify that value. Rising market concentration and high valuations—"non-macro" market forces that factor into our models—are not direct measures of those AI-related risks, but they are symptoms of the AI-driven market, as they were in the late 1990s tech boom, and so they are proxies for the impact that AI has had on equity markets in recent years." Ukraine now the war experts.. !... Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute bombshell. President Zelensky officially confirms Ukrainian Special Operations forces are actively deployed in the Middle East and the Gulf! They are setting up protection systems for "partners." The Ukraine war has officially expanded into a global conflict! https://t.co/zRgQqbLAmd " / X Tehran’s island ‘toll booth’ blocks reopening of Strait of Hormuz Israel Secretly Approves Record West Bank Illegal Settlement Orbán’s Spying Kit Revealed: Israeli Surveillance Tool Combined with Hungarian Technology - VSquare.org BOJ is likely to raise interest rate in April, ex-official says Additional oil release to be considered in 20 days National stockpile to be implemented in May|47NEWS Carlyle private-credit fund hit with 15.7% in redemption requests Stock Tip: Mexico-focused miner provides early stage opportunity – The Armchair Trader Brussels banking rules could hit lenders and UK-EU ‘reset’ – The Irish Times Another Brexit win, not Russian submarines ‘tried to spy on UK while world distracted by Iran’ La Jornada - Sheinbaum proposes to produce natural gas through 'fracking' That's a big turnaround kristen shaughnessy on X: " “Private Markets’ Software Pain Is About to Get a Lot Worse” “…More than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt is coming due for repayment through 2028, a chunk of it tied to firms owned by private https://t.co/PXFfPM370S " / X AnthroVet50 on X: "1/ In the 1990s, Trump went bankrupt — multiple times. Western banks stopped lending to him. His empire was collapsing. Then Russian money showed up. And it saved him." / X

Iran war update : reports suggesting that NO energy tankers have actually gone through the strait, yet...Trump 'ceasefire didn't include Lebanon'....then Pakistan said US and Israel actually agreed to it initially....The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.” , also shows the U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome >>> that IS a structural shift in power. Is rael launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the start of its invasion, targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites - clearly not is all well, yet anyway.., Iranian delegation set to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night despite ceasefire violation >>> crude up 3pct again, just under $100.., did Iran get conned by Trump and Pakistan to gain some times ? possibly, fact is ships are not flowing through the strait...a LOT of well-timed trades on Monday again.. (cough!....totally insane what's going on..), '''this whole thing on Monday looked to be staged to save face''', 15 US points to a sudden 10 Iran points..which are both very different....short-term : 2w 'hold' is or was good news for 'markets' but plenty of way this could unravel ! Markets : reminder that $8T of UST debt is rolling over this year, dwarfing anything coming in the next decade (create a risk-off environment for buyers to comeback ?), market got caught short, CTA's (HAD to BUY) bought large Eq on break of 200dma 6630, and sold crude on stop loss basis, this IS what happened, now let's see but IMHO this so-called ceasefire that isn't one, is a pretty fragile one.. >>> art of the deal...threaten to blow up everything, stage some ceasefire with 'draft' tweets, get nada, claim winning bigly, get nothing, and markets rallied hard...?... one can only fear we are going to correct lower again in risk, plenty of noise regarding 25th amendment, to keep everyone busy ! No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change . But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines #USD #UST The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it/Thread JD Vance to lead Iran talks as Teheran says ceasefire violated - The Business Times Trump says US will work closely with Iran, discuss sanctions Fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire shows cracks as Israel pounds Lebanon : NPR EU will still be hit by ‘stagflationary shock’, Brussels warns US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies UK becomes top destination for US jet fuel after Gulf flow squeeze Fed officials still foresee rate cut this year, despite war impacts, minutes show Taco trade explained: Inside the $950 million bet on oil falling before ceasefire – Firstpost Polymarket Iran bets draw fresh dispute and insider scrutiny - Moneyweb The 25th Amendment: Can it be used to remove Trump? What to know in Mississippi Petrostates Without Oil Export Routes Take the Hardest Hit | OilPrice.com #USD will remain under pressure long-term.. Alessandro on X: "The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it. @TaviCosta says that's unsustainable and it's the biggest challenge the US faces from here. Argentina's entire stock market is 10% of GDP. The US is the opposite https://t.co/Vi3soLRJfz " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The war with Iran will doubtlessly be studied for decades but what's already pretty clear at this stage is how much of a strategic defeat it is for the U.S. and Israel, perhaps the worst ever in their history (which is actually what former Israeli PM Yair Lapid already called it : https://t.co/stbdWgcVCq " / X Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: "Orban's betrayal goes much, much further than you think. Secret 12-Point Plan: In December 2025, the Orban government signed a comprehensive agreement with Moscow on cooperation in the areas of economics, energy, culture, and education, — Politico. More and more evidence is https://t.co/l8BM2PEpLb " / X Dublin fuel protests drag on into third day as more go-slow demonstrations hit motorways - live updates | Dublin Live The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: President Trump is considering a plan to "punish" some NATO countries by moving US troops out of countries which he deemed "unhelpful" to the Iran War, per WSJ. Details include: 1. The proposal would involve moving US troops from "unhelpful" countries and into" / X Italy likely to replace CEO of defence group Leonardo, sources say This is good :-) Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions on X: "10/10. No notes. https://t.co/YQ3JPNIR02 " / X

Iran war update : reminder.. Before Trump’s war the Strait of Hormuz was open, sanctions were in place, and U.S gas was below $2.5, then he gave up a lot to reopen it... world economy was prodding along quite nicely before the war, now it will struggle for a number of months, whole Middle East dynamics have totally changed for the long-term.....winning!.. ?.. >>> OK so we have the expected 'truce', now the hard work begins, while the details are worked out, devils always in the details..The Iran 10 point plan is Very different than the initial 15 point plan from the U.S..... ! so beware !.. Markets : 800 vessels still trapped in Hormuz, IATA warns it will take months for fuel supply to fully recover, Vietnam upgrade, was the war even 'legal' (there will be a huge debate going for a long while..), Goldman Sachs: "We have seen one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years ." The employment component of yesterday's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years Confirmation.. : NBER, Bloomberg, Goldman, OBR, NIESR and others have all concluded that Brexit costs the UK about £100bn of GDP foregone per year China’s central bank reported that it bought the most gold in more than a year in March. 17 months in a row Vance, who flew to Budapest to endorse Victor Orban in Sunday’s elections, accused the EU and Ukraine (amongst other things) of interfering in Hungary’s elections. Yup, you read that correctly US Iran war live updates: Iran warns of global fallout as US tensions escalate Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz | investingLive What to Know About the 25th Amendment as Lawmakers Call for Trump’s Removal IATA warns jet fuel recovery will take months after war | News.az Shipowners eye Hormuz truce with 800 vessels still trapped | Business | Ammon News One in eight British residents has left UAE since Iran war, data shows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of" / X Moons apart from the 15 point plan from the U.S !... Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term, signals toward holding rates steady India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady Vietnam Stocks Rise After FTSE Upgrade Nod, US-Iran Ceasefire Why France has shifted its gold reserves out of US The current gold movement has drawn parallels with the 1960s 'Bretton Woods' system where US dollar was convertible into gold for foreign central banks. Back then, France under President Charles de Gaulle was wary of US monetary expansion and secretly repatriated a large chunk of its gold from New York and London between 1963-66. UK City firms report fastest turnaround in fortunes in 30 years | Financial sector | The Guardian Lisa Abramowicz on X: "There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years. https://t.co/vLXJt2A54J " / X Majority of Canadians open to joining EU, new poll suggests - The Globe and Mail Jack Prandelli on X: "Most people think oil = petrol 🛢️But 1 barrel is so much more than that 42 gallons. 159 liters. Here's what's actually inside: ⛽ 42% Petrol (your car) 🚛 27% Diesel ✈️ 10% Jet fuel (your flight) 🧴 7% Petrochemical feedstocks (your plastics) 🚢 5% Marine fuel https://t.co/mJ3zkoVEk2 " / X

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