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Markets : The 2-7% U.S CPI was a lie, BoJ hikes 25bps as exp to 0.75% (will hike again in ...6mos time not Jan, in true EMG basket case, JPY weaker and long duration yields higher by another 3-4bps), TikTok deal, Trump Media goes thermonuclear (next US govt will allocate huge deal tothe company..), Europe has a UKR deal (9bn euro, with striogns attached), French farmers in Brussels (anti Mercosur deal), Jack Smith more worring for Trump than Epstein >>> beware late market moves on Venezuela, Epstein news, post OpEx, equity markets holding up, but JGB yields a worry! if/when it leads othe yields higher too, market pushing USDJPY higher towards 160 to test BoJ resolve (risk of verbal interventions from here on), precious metals what else! Geopolitics : Merz : The financial package for Ukraine is in place: Ukraine will receive an interest-free loan of 90 billion Euros as I suggested. This sends a clear signal from Europe to Putin: This war will not be worth it. We will keep Russian assets frozen until Russia has compensated Ukraine Precious metals : very precious they sure are!...GOLD Silver, Platinum & Palladium We largely reached targets for all of them. They all now sit close to important Fibonacci extensions and have had incredible runs - one of the fastest in history TikTok signed agreements with investors including Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX for a new US JV that makes the app majority-owned by American investors (sounds good initially but), and this one is out of this world..plenty of HUGE controvercy behind it, |  The Trump family media group has agreed to combine with Google-backed fusion energy company TAE Technologies in a deal valued at $6bn EU agrees €90bn loan for Ukraine but without using Russian assets - Yahoo News Canada Jack Smith tells Congress he could prove Trump engaged in a 'criminal scheme' to overturn 2020 election Epstein files release deadline ends today: All you need to know That's the risk Trump to announce war with Venezuela? What time is US president's address to nation? Copper price: BHP CEO, investment banks see bull run in 2026 Copper Hoarding | Armstrong Economics US inflation cools to 2.7% in November report likely distorted by government shutdown more like a con job.. tobehonest..saying it mildly... November's CPI report "should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy," says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays Trump reclassifies cannabis to Schedule III, easing weed restrictions No, Trump did not legalize marijuana federally today. But he did move to downgrade how the government classifies it – from a Schedule 1 drug to a Schedule 3 drug – which could pave the way for a broader embrace of cannabis #MJ etf back down again BoJ rate hike: What does the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision mean for the Indian stock market? Trump Praises Waller and Bowman, Says Fed Pick Coming in Weeks Plenty or articles Russian economy goingbankrupt etc, ok europe would say this.. and it's hard to get the facts ! but there you go https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-orders-russian-railways-sell-24-billion-moscow-towers-pay-debts-three-2025-12-18/?utm_source=chatgpt.com British MI6 spy chief to warn of ‘aggressive’ Russia threat in first speech | The Straits Times UBS Plans January Job Cuts to Start Final Integration Year - Bloomberg “…A UBS spokesperson said in response to questions that many of the reductions in headcount will take place over the course of several years, with some coming through early retirement or by not filling vacancies when people decide to leave UBS. The bank will also seek to reassign staff whose current roles are eliminated, the spokesperson said….” Nigel Farage avoids police investigation into election spending Reminder, Paul Marshall still flogging the dead horse that is the Singapore-on-Thames Brexit - the unregulated paradise for hedge-funds that the electorate don't actually want The Brexit implementation fiasco AI likely to displace jobs, says Bank of England governor Trump Media announces merger with TAE Technologies That kind of conspiracy - quite freaky read tbh, when you read that The CEO of the fusion company that Trump Media just announced a merger with, Michl Binderbauer, was on a fusion board with the murdered MIT professor Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) on X: "Trumps social media company is merging with a nuclear fusion company backed by Russia… Days after one of the top US nuclear fusion scientists was gunned down in his home…. wtf?!?" / X Farmers 'bewildered and frightened' by inheritance tax reforms | UK News | Sky News Farmers descend on Brussels to protest EU Mercosur trade deal - RFI In Marseille, Macron redeclares war on drug trafficking

BoE to cut, ECB on hold, BoJ tom morning (much more important for risk overall) First Micron exited their Crucial consumer-facing memory business, then we heard Samsung may stop selling SSDs, now there's news that Nvidia may reduce their RTX 50 production by up to 40% next year, Blue Owl capital walks away from ORCL's ä10bn data center plan, and ...Bernie now wants a moratorium on construction of data centers.. Markets : AI names down, oil stocks up on US/VEN conflict and under-owned, Trump promises 'warrior checks' (unlikely..), Dems win blow out vote in Kentucky (Trump's popularity plummeting), “BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT” — Jack Smith calmly destroys Trump’s “witch hunt” fantasy in testimony before Congress , Oracle is pure 'monetization problem'...(has lost half its value in 3mos..) which could turn out to be 'THE' issue for the whole Ai trade, . or saying that the market quietly forcing one question onto every balance sheet: show me the cash >>> equity markets rotation continues, Ai/datacenters/techs/non profitable thematic names down...while oil, metals, commodity realated / quality names do well... precious metals, oh my.. what a marvellous ride in 2025.. ! related stocks struggling though #SILJ etc.. wild times ahead no doubt.. Geopolitics : China and Russia Reaffirm Support for Iran and Venezuela Amid U.S. Pressure Recent developments show China and Russia continuing to voice strong diplomatic backing for Iran and Venezuela in the face of escalating U.S. sanctions and military actions, Martin Wolf: The greatest threat to Europe is no longer external authoritarianism alone, but the collapse of the Atlantic moral alliance and unless Europe (and the UK) re-anchor themselves fast, they will be picked apart from within U.S unemployment rate (outside covid) is at its highest level in over 8 years. The labor market is deteriorating particularly quickly for young workers, who are facing a 10.6% unemployment rate German Chancellor Metz announces FORCED mobilization if Germany fails to gather volunteers for the military to counter Russia Everyone is on the K shaped economy / divide >>> IMHO it's bigger and more like a generational divide.. endless deficits, NIRP, ZIRP, endless QE and easy monetary policy have supported asset prices, real estate, single family homee and of course equity prices (who's rally been long equity..? the 10pct..).. now we face the consequences...wiht higher inflation, higher taxes, crazy more volatile geopolitics, affordability issues etc...whihc mostly falls on the younger generation.., many have the right to be pissed off, trouble is no easy asnwer and solution (unless very dratic..).. Nvidia Might Cut RTX 50 GPU Supply by Up to 40% in 2026 Due to Memory Shortages Micron Announces Exit from Crucial Consumer Business | Micron Technology Leaks claim Samsung may stop SATA SSD production in 2026 - The Escapist Oracle's Michigan Data Center Project Talks Progressing Without Blue Owl Capital, ETTelecom Market now says show me the money first.. Good news ! General Mills is cutting prices on food, and it’s paying off But, listetning to the FOMC... Fed said they see stagflation as the biggest risk in 2026 FOMC members foresee.... rising inflation together with rising unemployment Now politics get involved... Bernie Sanders on X: "In the next two years, AI data centers will not only cause electric bills to soar, but are expected to generate the same emissions as driving over 300 billion miles — or 1,600 round trips to the sun from Earth. We need a moratorium on the construction of new AI data centers. https://t.co/ePCljSSseT " / X Jack Smith defends Trump prosecutions in testimony to Congress Republicans IMMEDIATELY regret calling in Jack Smith to testify as he says on the record he has absolutely ZERO regrets and would even CHARGE TRUMP AGAIN if he could, suggested if Trump didn’t want to be indicted, he shouldn’t have broken the law Senate passes defense bill that defies Trump and forces sharing of boat strike videos - POLITICO Senate passes defense bill that defies Trump and forces sharing of boat strike videos The president is still expected to sign the legislation, which now heads to his desk. China says US will only 'harm itself' after Washington approves $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan Dems score blowout victory in Kentucky as Trump's popularity plummets - Raw Story 'Warrior dividends': Trump promises $1,776 checks for US service members this Christmas Trump wants to spend over $2.5 trillion sending 1.45 million $1,776 checks to members of the military. $1,776 won’t even cover their additional household spending because of Trump’s tariffs China advances on its AI 'Manhattan Project:' Reuters Seems like a big security failure by ASML and dutch intel services Liz Webster on X: "🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 This is a warning from the President of France @EmmanuelMacron He sets out why Europe must stop being naïve - about China’s export dumping, about US coercion, and about its own unfinished single market - and start acting like a power. Europe has the capital, the https://t.co/zPKTfCaqWR " / X Venezuela denounces Trump's order for ship blockade as 'warmongering threats' Tesla Faces License Suspension In California Over FSD Claims As Gerber Says 'The Days Are Over,' Munster Calls Ruling 'Absurd' - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Benzinga Tesla's car business is only worth $30 a share, analyst warns

Markets : Crude on 4year lows, 4.6% unemployment rate in U.S has always signaled recession in the past 50years, Citadel's Griffin on Rep party and inflation (below), Portfolio managers' cash level drops to a record low 3.3%. Dec BofA FMS (all FM survey headlines below), the BoE WILL welcome softer inflation this morning (3.2% - cut tomorrow nailed on, and more to come in 2026), BoJ will hike rates to the highest level since 1995 on Friday, VW shuts down production at German plant (unheard of..), GOLD, SILVER, PLAT mainly and PALL rally unprecedented this year, what else!.. many miners, junior miners not really joined in the fun #SIL #SILJ etc >>> markets rallied off lows yesterday #QQQ when FED injected $4bn in MBSat 1:30 eastern time, let's see how goes into OpEx, Venezuela, BoJ hike and Epstein files release by end of the week, imho markets feel super heavy, FM survey shows managers are long (all-in basically, which is fine till it isn't), prepare, plan accordingly..would be very careful over next few weeks.. and going into early 2026 Trade : The US threatened to retaliate against EU companies, including Accenture, Siemens and Spotify in response to the bloc’s digital tax efforts, Geopolitics : TAIWAN is a red line" - CHINA warns ISRAEL, US-VENEZUELA CRISIS: Donald Trump orders a blockade (a la Cuba missile crisis) of "all sanctioned oil tankers" going into and out of Venezuela. He claims some of the Venezuelan oil fields belong to America (bit of act of war, surely not coincidental with the Epstein files coming out on Friday...), Public market price discovery can be BRUTAL...-FT Goldman : Gold ETF's account for just 0.17% of private portfolios.... AI how good is it really ?...Only 15% of executives saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year according to Forrester. BCG found just 5% of executives saw widespread value from AI. Forrester predicts companies will delay about 25% of their planned AI spending in 2026 by a year Citadel founder Ken Griffin says the Republican party is struggling with policies on tariffs and immigration that are fueling inflation during an interview with Dani Burger at the Conference de Paris Silver may soar further as China curbs exports from January 1 - The HinduBusinessLine Mark on X: "ED STEER: "Throw Technical Analysis Out the Window" - Why This Silver Rally is Different. 📈 Silver's price acceleration is entering parabolic territory. Here’s how fast each $10 move has happened: ➡️ $20 to $30: 145 days ➡️ $30 to $40: 145 days ➡️ $40 to $50: 39 days ➡️ $50 to https://t.co/fUhgutacZL " / X US Threatens Retaliation Over EU Digital Tax Griffin Writes Checks to Spur Citadel Employees’ Nonprofit Work - Bloomberg Private market marks, say hello to public markets VW to Shut Down Production at German Plant | SupplyChainBrain Musk said he’d pull back from politics. He’s donating again Nigel Farage’s £9m Donor Profits From Putin Propaganda Platform While Holding MoD Stake – Byline Times Hedgie on X: "🦔Only 15% of executives saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year according to Forrester. BCG found just 5% of executives saw widespread value from AI. Forrester predicts companies will delay about 25% of their planned AI spending in 2026 by a year. Klarna rolled" / X Milton Friedman Quotes on X: "Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.” “If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.” https://t.co/cvPpAfbL1b " / X Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot | Extremetech The AI Data Center Short | Jim Chanos on Oracle, Data Centers Landlords, and GPU Merchants - Monetary Matters with Jack Farley | Podcast on Spotify Global Surveillance on X: "BREAKING; "TAIWAN IS A RED LINE" - CHINA warns ISRAEL CHINESE Embassy in ISRAEL stated that the TAIWAN issue is a "red line that cannot be crossed" and urged Israel to "correct its erroneous actions". Beijing warned that continuing official or military contacts could severely https://t.co/b3Uuz8oRfZ " / X Global Fund Manager Survey The bullet points below provide more details on the latest survey results: ▪ In terms of global growth expectations, a net 18% of respondents expect a stronger economy over the next 12 months, compared with a net 3% the previous month. ▪ The FMS broad measure of sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations, further improved to 7.4 from 6.4 the previous month, the highest since July 2021. ▪ On inflation, a net 2% of respondents expect a higher global CPI in the next 12 months, compared with a net 2% who expected a lower CPI the previous month.  Inflation expectations have come down sharply over the past few months given tariffs have not led to a sharp increase in consumer prices as some had feared. ▪ Equity allocation rose to a net 42% overweight from 34% overweight the previous month, the highest since December 2024.  Current allocation is 0.6 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Allocation to US equities rose to a net 6% overweight, vs. -6% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 0.5 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Allocation to Eurozone equities rose to a net 18% overweight vs. 9% overweight the previous month.  Current allocation is in line with the long-term average. ▪ A net positive percentage of respondents are saying companies are overinvesting, which is unusual.  However, the net percentage who believe so has fallen to 14% from 20% the previous month. ▪ Bond allocation fell to a net -29% underweight from -12% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 0.4 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Cash allocation fell to -11% underweight from -8% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 2 standard deviations below the long-term average. ▪ Commodities allocation was net 18% overweight, compared with 17% overweight the previous month.  Commodities allocation is the highest since September 2022 and 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ A net 53% of respondents believe the USD is overvalued, up from 45% the previous month.   ▪ A net 34% of respondents believe gold is overvalued, up from 32% the previous month.

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