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Is it for today ?.. Donald Trump is set to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, people familiar said. The president plans to announce his pick today, other contenders include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder. Stocks fell along with Treasuries on speculation Warsh, an historically hawkish former Fed governor, will lead the central bank. The dollar extended gains, while gold dropped >>> Warsh nomination could well have a decent impact on markets, and further flush USD shorts and risk-on trades, IF confirmed >>> beware, and it's month-end, after a month of massive momentum trades.. Markets : It's not often you see a MEGA cap like MSFT losing over 10% in a day (in fact it's never happened..), APPL a beat 'what else', META investigation over WhatsApp, Amazon is said to be in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI (more circular deals), SpaceX merger talks,. Trump says Europe is weak, the data says NOPE (Thread) >>> MSFT mainly (and SAP earlier, UNH etc) the trigger for a 'cross asset flush' into month-end ! (timing, positioning is the key..) >>> when margin calls kick in with 'hot momentum trades', IMHO a welcome short-term flush in precious metals, and MAG7 and the PLTR of this world are well overdue a decent correction (circular deals, more debt, higher costs etc), BTC another leg lower too, month-end flows could be quite interesting today! no-one can complain that there is no volatility ! what a start to 2026 Commods : ALU used to cost the same in the U.S as it did in Europe (no longer..nope), Copper up here will ADD, Copper move could add up to 1% in U.S core CPI >>> ''a welcome sell-off into month-end after an absolutely WILD Jan..'' Geopolitics : Trump said Vladimir Putin agreed to halt the bombing of Ukraine as the country prepares for an extreme cold snap Trade : The US president warned the UK and Canada against striking new business deals with China, after their leaders visited Beijing this month in an effort to deepen ties Gandalv on X: "Trump Says Europe Is Weak. The Data Says He’s Wrong." / X US Aluminum Premium Tops $1 a Pound for First Time - Bloomberg Earnings live: Sandisk stock surges on huge profit beat, Deckers stock soars, Apple earnings beat estimates Trump says deal struck with Democrats to avoid government shutdown over ICE reforms | LBC Gold prices hit record high as 2026 starts with a rally US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Tesla and xAI may merge: What we know so far Trump Says Putin Agreed to Halt Ukraine Bombing During Cold Snap | Mint Trump pressed to turn retired jet engines into power for AI supercomputers US investigates claims Meta could access private WhatsApp messages | Tech News - Business Standard Bambi Burnham has boosted Labour's rivals The strategic block of Andy Burnham’s by-election candidacy is a self-inflicted wound that signals weakness, invites challenges from internal rivals, and elevates a local contest into a national stress test of Keir Starmer’s leadership, says Helen Thomas UK citizens to be able to travel to China visa-free, Starmer announces in Beijing - BBC News Voters Growing More Concerned About the National Debt UBS kickt immer mehr alte CS-Kunden auf Strasse – Inside Paradeplatz Trump says ‘very dangerous’ for UK to do business with China, after Starmer hails progress in Beijing | China | The Guardian Source: Amazon could invest up to $50B in OpenAI in coming weeks First Brands founder and brother indicted on US fraud charges Indonesian stock exchange CEO resigns after $84 billion market wipe out

US layoffs have surged to recessionary levels: US employers announced 1,206,374 job cuts in 2025, up +58% YoY, the highest since the 2020 Crisis. Excluding 2020, this was the worst year since the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the first layoffs announcement in 2026 are getting bigger Markets : MAGA is turning on Donald Trump, peak Trump 'impact' in markets, not that he can't go loopy still, clearly he can and he will no doubt..,  a central goal of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord"—an economic framework proposed by advisors within the Trump administration—is to deliberately weaken the U.S. dollar (market been doing just that..(THREADs below), and FWIW as we been writing about for nearly a year..., markets may push further than they wish for... at which point the ECB can start to say that EURUSD is too high.... SILVER 'it is different this time' - prepare for 100+ for a long while...(Thread-HECLA President reveals why) >> earnings in full swing (MSFT ''rising costs..'' + circular deal NVDA and OpenAI), SAP drops to 2y lows!, metals still in focus, USD bounced a little after Bessent and weakened again overnight, 10's UST's quietly selling off 4.27% now (steeper curve with Rieder..), Iran building up for something big, UK PLC's to benefit from CHINA rapprochement, commodity boom continues to support the likes of AUD, NOK, LATAMs, Brazil, CHILI ETF's etc.. Geopolitics : Trump says a "massive Armada" is heading to Iran and "like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to fulfil its mission." "Time is running out, make a deal, the next attack will be far worse,", EU expected to put Iran guards on 'terrorist list', Trump weighs major new strike on Iran as nuclear discussions show no progress The world is adapting, shifting away from America : PetroChina has stopped buying “stolen” Venezuelan oil that is being marketed under U.S. control , France to replace Microsoft Teams and Zoom with its own video platform, Visio, across all Govt departments by 2027 , there will be many more of those, EU-India trade deal is the same, net net the U.S isolated itself and will lose out long-term, Trump is single-handedly turning long-term traditional allies away from the US towards China and Europe..EU’s Kaja Kallas: Europe is no longer Washington’s primary center of gravity. The shift has been ongoing for a while. It is structural, not temporary... let that sink in..Keir Starmer going to China, with 50 UK CEOs, is a huge deal, it’s a break from the autopilot politics of the UK centre-left, where America is always alpha and omega, to a more pragmatic approach.... good for UK PLC's long-term The former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González stated: "I personally believe, and I say this with all due respect, that Trump is completely insane. A fool who is given power destroys his people." Slovak PM Robert Fico (and old friend of Trump..)... told EU leaders he was alarmed after meeting Donald Trump on Jan. 17 at Mar-a-Lago, calling Trump’s state of mind “dangerous” and raising concerns about his “psychological state,” The Fed holds interest rates steady despite pressure from Trump Powell 'irrelevant' for markets, ALL about next FED Chair, Rick Rieder still odds-on Scott Bessent shuts down report of potential U.S. currency market intervention; U.S. dollar rebounds Clash Report on X: "EU’s Kaja Kallas: Europe is no longer Washington’s primary center of gravity. The shift has been ongoing for a while. It is structural, not temporary. No great power in history has ever outsourced its survival and survived. The risk of a return to coercive power politics and https://t.co/fTsool2E2s " / X Bonjour Visio: France turns digital sovereignty into policy ALL ABOUT THAT USDOLLAR POLICY... Long-term USD dominance over, which started last year on the Mar-a-Lago 'deal'.....'they want a weaker USDollar, they will get a weaker USdollar... China’s ‘gold fever’ sparks US$1 billion scandal as trading platform collapses | South China Morning Post Samantha LaDuc on X: "1973 IS COMING - BUT NOT FOR OIL There is falling global dollar AND treasury demand, but not for US equities. 25% of USTs are owned by foreigners (down from 33% a decade ago) 25% of US Equities are owned by foreigners (up from 18%) USD share of global foreign reserves as https://t.co/efmDeSGpoi " / X Again, irrespective of what anyone things, this is what the market been doing for while...and what we been talking about for months... debasement, usd decline, GOLD reset, hard assets, government debt ever higher etc... Ole S Hansen on X: "From Gemini: A central goal of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord"—an economic framework proposed by advisors within the Trump administration—is to deliberately weaken the U.S. dollar. The plan is named in reference to the 1985 Plaza Accord, where major world powers agreed to devalue the" / X AlexandruC4 on X: "BREAKING: Slovak PM Robert Fico told EU leaders he was alarmed after meeting Donald Trump on Jan. 17 at Mar-a-Lago, calling Trump’s state of mind “dangerous” and raising concerns about his “psychological state,” according to EU diplomats. The White House rejected the account, https://t.co/3TciS5qePk " / X SILVER it is different this time, here is why : Mark on X: "$100+ SILVER UNLOCKED – FORMER HECLA PRESIDENT PHIL BAKER REVEALS WHY THIS MOVE IS DIFFERENT Former Hecla Mining president and Silver Institute veteran Phil Baker explains why this isn't just hype—it's a fundamental shift in the silver market that's here to stay. THE HISTORIC https://t.co/ggvehKkMgE " / X Talks with US over Chagos Islands deal have reopened, confirms Keir Starmer Trump faces fury as majority of Americans turn against ICE after fatal shootings Will Britain follow the Carney Doctrine? - UnHerd EU expected to put Iran guards on 'terrorist list' Trump weighs major new strike on Iran as nuclear discussions show no progress | CNN Politics Pakistan tightens border surveillance over Nipah virus threat as India confirms two cases China plans space‑based AI data centres, challenging Musk's SpaceX ambitions Sam Altman said OpenAI is planning to 'dramatically slow down' its pace of hiring Deutsche Bank Q4 earnings 2025 results SAP plunges to 17 month low as AI panic wipes out $130B Circular deals again OpenAI and NVIDIA Announce Strategic Partnership to Deploy 10 Gigawatts of NVIDIA Systems | NVIDIA Newsroom Earnings live: IBM stock surges, Whirlpool slides; Meta, Microsoft, Tesla report beats across the board

Markets : #USD IMF prepares for global run on US dollar (now with Trump adding to risk..), Scott Bessent is already showing signs of a meltdown in reaction to the European Union’s FTA with India (Thread), FED unchanged tonight, presser always interesting particularly ahead of new FED Chair announcement shortly, worst U.S confidence numbers in 12years y'day, Rick Rieder (odds on fav) wants 1% cut, steeper curves and probably not too worried about the USD either.. so long as UST market remains steady, with all the mountain of debt that needs to be rolled in 2026 #shadowFED effectively.. >> The US has almost never seen so much debt coming due: 26.4% of US federal debt is maturing within 12 months, near the highest % in 26 years!!, mass 48K UPS layoffs, AMZN cuts too, ASML big beat >>> When the U.S. weaponizes the dollar, threatening sanctions, freezing assets, using currency as a political tool, that trust evaporates... (UST long end sold off a little again #duration risk ),... markets have to 'prepare, hedge'' for a 10-15pct move lower in major USD pairs...without the $$$ as a world currency, the U.S becomes a regional power, with HUGE debt issue..''BE careful what you wish for Donald...'' GOLD, Silver , PLAT prices were hit hard during NYC hours last few days, right back and higher again this morning !! this is the debasement full on.. The White House is in full blown panic mode right now . Kristi Noem is throwing Stephen Miller under the bus, Miller is throwing Greg Bovino under the bus, Republican senators are calling for Noem to be fired… it’s a mess. SPX : if you measure SPX return in GOLD terms, the stock market is 'collapsing'.. #USD : IMF prepares for global run on US dollar. The EU should issue more common debt to provide investors with an alternative safe asset to gold and US Treasuries, the Fund's managing director said Ray Dalio just said the quiet part out loud. "If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up." The Stock Market boom is a lie… We are witnessing the death of the Dollar, not the growth of the economy EU now has its own 'secure and encrypted' satellite communication system Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday he told U.S. President Donald Trump that he meant what he said in his speech at Davos, and told him Canada plans to diversify away from the United States with a dozen new trade deals..to EU, China.. IMF prepares for global run on US dollar | Euractiv The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Most people don't realize what Trump just said: For 12+ months, the US Dollar has been in a sharp decline, falling -10% in 2025 in its worst year since 2017. Minutes ago, for the first time, President Trump commented on the decline in the USD: "The value of the Dollar is https://t.co/qTORxvmg3H " / X The President doesn't make USD policy, but there you go.. Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨The US has almost never seen so much debt coming due: 26.4% of US federal debt is maturing within 12 months, near the highest % in 26 years, according to Tavi Costa's analysis. This is ~$10 TRILLION of debt. However, it has to be refinanced at way higher rates than the https://t.co/Wz0AqpPtp1 " / X Crude Rallies on Weather Disruptions and Fresh Geopolitical Nerves | OilPrice.com Mark Carney stands firm on Davos speech, plans new Canada trade deals | AP News EU now has its own 'secure and encrypted' satellite communication system, Kubilius says | Euronews Activists say Iran's crackdown has killed at least 6,221 people, as the country's currency plunges Consumer confidence collapses to lowest level since 2014 | CNN Business ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining, says Austria’s central bank governor We've hardly moved a few pct.. sure, if EURUSD went rapidly to 1.35+ they would Shubhangi Sharma on X: "Scott Bessent is already showing signs of a meltdown in reaction to the European Union’s FTA with India. The Trump administration will find it a lot harder to justify its policy towards India. The whole thing is backfiring. https://t.co/AgTq8nNwXs " / X Sam Altman, Jamie Dimon, and more CEOs on ICE in Minnesota The boss been fired.. Top White House aide Stephen Miller acknowledges possible breach of protocol before Alex Pretti’s shooting Gandalv on X: "Trillions Lost Forever: MAGA as the Most Expensive Political Project in U.S. History" / X When the U.S. weaponizes the dollar, threatening sanctions, freezing assets, using currency as a political tool, that trust evaporates. China and Brazil are already trading in yuan. India and Russia are using rupees. The European Union is pushing for euro-denominated energy contracts. Each of these shifts is small. But they add up. And they don't reverse . Australia's Woodside beats Q4 revenue estimates despite oil slump, flags lower 2026 output | Reuters Exclusive: Amazon plans thousands more corporate job cuts next week, sources say | Reuters UPS Mass Layoffs as 48,000 Jobs Cut - Newsweek UnitedHealth stock crashes despite market-beating earnings - but CMS update cautions against buying the dip Dutch tech giant ASML to cut around 1,700 jobs even as orders beat expectations - CNA

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