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Iran war update : reports suggesting that NO energy tankers have actually gone through the strait, yet...Trump 'ceasefire didn't include Lebanon'....then Pakistan said US and Israel actually agreed to it initially....The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.” , also shows the U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome >>> that IS a structural shift in power. Is rael launched its largest assault on Lebanon since the start of its invasion, targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites - clearly not is all well, yet anyway.., Iranian delegation set to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night despite ceasefire violation >>> crude up 3pct again, just under $100.., did Iran get conned by Trump and Pakistan to gain some times ? possibly, fact is ships are not flowing through the strait...a LOT of well-timed trades on Monday again.. (cough!....totally insane what's going on..), '''this whole thing on Monday looked to be staged to save face''', 15 US points to a sudden 10 Iran points..which are both very different....short-term : 2w 'hold' is or was good news for 'markets' but plenty of way this could unravel ! Markets : reminder that $8T of UST debt is rolling over this year, dwarfing anything coming in the next decade (create a risk-off environment for buyers to comeback ?), market got caught short, CTA's (HAD to BUY) bought large Eq on break of 200dma 6630, and sold crude on stop loss basis, this IS what happened, now let's see but IMHO this so-called ceasefire that isn't one, is a pretty fragile one.. >>> art of the deal...threaten to blow up everything, stage some ceasefire with 'draft' tweets, get nada, claim winning bigly, get nothing, and markets rallied hard...?... one can only fear we are going to correct lower again in risk, plenty of noise regarding 25th amendment, to keep everyone busy ! No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change . But the waterway will never be as critical as it was six weeks ago: Iran's rivals will rush to build more bypass oil pipelines #USD #UST The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it/Thread JD Vance to lead Iran talks as Teheran says ceasefire violated - The Business Times Trump says US will work closely with Iran, discuss sanctions Fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire shows cracks as Israel pounds Lebanon : NPR EU will still be hit by ‘stagflationary shock’, Brussels warns US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies UK becomes top destination for US jet fuel after Gulf flow squeeze Fed officials still foresee rate cut this year, despite war impacts, minutes show Taco trade explained: Inside the $950 million bet on oil falling before ceasefire – Firstpost Polymarket Iran bets draw fresh dispute and insider scrutiny - Moneyweb The 25th Amendment: Can it be used to remove Trump? What to know in Mississippi Petrostates Without Oil Export Routes Take the Hardest Hit | OilPrice.com #USD will remain under pressure long-term.. Alessandro on X: "The US needs to grow the economy roughly 5% a year just to pay down the debt. Not to reduce it. Just to service it. @TaviCosta says that's unsustainable and it's the biggest challenge the US faces from here. Argentina's entire stock market is 10% of GDP. The US is the opposite https://t.co/Vi3soLRJfz " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The war with Iran will doubtlessly be studied for decades but what's already pretty clear at this stage is how much of a strategic defeat it is for the U.S. and Israel, perhaps the worst ever in their history (which is actually what former Israeli PM Yair Lapid already called it : https://t.co/stbdWgcVCq " / X Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: "Orban's betrayal goes much, much further than you think. Secret 12-Point Plan: In December 2025, the Orban government signed a comprehensive agreement with Moscow on cooperation in the areas of economics, energy, culture, and education, — Politico. More and more evidence is https://t.co/l8BM2PEpLb " / X Dublin fuel protests drag on into third day as more go-slow demonstrations hit motorways - live updates | Dublin Live The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: President Trump is considering a plan to "punish" some NATO countries by moving US troops out of countries which he deemed "unhelpful" to the Iran War, per WSJ. Details include: 1. The proposal would involve moving US troops from "unhelpful" countries and into" / X Italy likely to replace CEO of defence group Leonardo, sources say This is good :-) Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions on X: "10/10. No notes. https://t.co/YQ3JPNIR02 " / X

Iran war update : reminder.. Before Trump’s war the Strait of Hormuz was open, sanctions were in place, and U.S gas was below $2.5, then he gave up a lot to reopen it... world economy was prodding along quite nicely before the war, now it will struggle for a number of months, whole Middle East dynamics have totally changed for the long-term.....winning!.. ?.. >>> OK so we have the expected 'truce', now the hard work begins, while the details are worked out, devils always in the details..The Iran 10 point plan is Very different than the initial 15 point plan from the U.S..... ! so beware !.. Markets : 800 vessels still trapped in Hormuz, IATA warns it will take months for fuel supply to fully recover, Vietnam upgrade, was the war even 'legal' (there will be a huge debate going for a long while..), Goldman Sachs: "We have seen one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years ." The employment component of yesterday's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years Confirmation.. : NBER, Bloomberg, Goldman, OBR, NIESR and others have all concluded that Brexit costs the UK about £100bn of GDP foregone per year China’s central bank reported that it bought the most gold in more than a year in March. 17 months in a row Vance, who flew to Budapest to endorse Victor Orban in Sunday’s elections, accused the EU and Ukraine (amongst other things) of interfering in Hungary’s elections. Yup, you read that correctly US Iran war live updates: Iran warns of global fallout as US tensions escalate Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz | investingLive What to Know About the 25th Amendment as Lawmakers Call for Trump’s Removal IATA warns jet fuel recovery will take months after war | News.az Shipowners eye Hormuz truce with 800 vessels still trapped | Business | Ammon News One in eight British residents has left UAE since Iran war, data shows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of" / X Moons apart from the 15 point plan from the U.S !... Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term, signals toward holding rates steady India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady Vietnam Stocks Rise After FTSE Upgrade Nod, US-Iran Ceasefire Why France has shifted its gold reserves out of US The current gold movement has drawn parallels with the 1960s 'Bretton Woods' system where US dollar was convertible into gold for foreign central banks. Back then, France under President Charles de Gaulle was wary of US monetary expansion and secretly repatriated a large chunk of its gold from New York and London between 1963-66. UK City firms report fastest turnaround in fortunes in 30 years | Financial sector | The Guardian Lisa Abramowicz on X: "There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years. https://t.co/vLXJt2A54J " / X Majority of Canadians open to joining EU, new poll suggests - The Globe and Mail Jack Prandelli on X: "Most people think oil = petrol 🛢️But 1 barrel is so much more than that 42 gallons. 159 liters. Here's what's actually inside: ⛽ 42% Petrol (your car) 🚛 27% Diesel ✈️ 10% Jet fuel (your flight) 🧴 7% Petrochemical feedstocks (your plastics) 🚢 5% Marine fuel https://t.co/mJ3zkoVEk2 " / X

Iran war update : just ahead of tonight's deadline.. .massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack, President Trump reasserted his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to reopen the vital oil shipping lane or the country will  face bombardment  of its infrastructure (thing is Iran is negotiating with RoW not with the U.S...).., “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said during a news conference (WSJ, FT), open the strait or we will seize the oil, there was a lot of nonsense spoken over the Easter weekend.. The Iran war just broke the petrodollar. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold than US government bonds . The war is making this look like a signal, all French gold reserves are now held in Paris . French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves (a little fishy..), Kuwait was forced to shut down the desalination plants that provide 90 percent of its drinking water (horrendous way to fight a war..) , Qatar begins US Troop withdrawal ..! let that sink in.., Al Jazeera confirms regional powers like Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are completely bypassing Washington to mediate peace with Iran... >>> what next then ? ... huge escalation, ground troops etc, and/or accept Iran's leverage..(holding the strait of Hormuz is bigger than nuclear.. as it impacts global finance and hits the U.S and its allies most..)...>>> something like this... Iran gets permanent leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and in return: uranium enrichment stops, missiles capped at the current 2000km range etc Markets : U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% (Ugly downgrade..), Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly, nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages >>> overall choppy rangy, we could have a massive escalation and/or some sort of ceasefire, take your pick, we've rallied on hope and short-covering, Crude is and will be the tell, currently still trading near $115 WTI... Private credit, in short: $1.8trn in assets nobody can price, in funds nobody can exit, on borrowers nobody stress-tested; default rates at records. Jamie Dimon says losses are already too high. Warning signs get louder and louder, pay attention!... Welfare spending has overtaken tax revenue for the first time in UK history. The Treasury raised £331bn in income tax last year, while the state spent £333bn on welfare... this cannot continue, of the IMG will be asked to come and visit the UK soon.. PIMCO : '' US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” Michael Saylor’s Strategy registered a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in the first quarter for their failed Bitcoin gamble #MSTR The Iran war just broke the petrodollar - The Business Times Massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack | Watch – Firstpost Kuwait Power, Water Desalination Plants Damaged by Iranian Attack The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4." / X Seems more reasonable..!? Why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% JPMorganChase Publishes 2025 Annual Report, Including Chairman & CEO Letter to Shareholders " The industry has not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen." The cockroaches are still there. They've just been breeding. EndGame Macro on X: "Jamie Dimon Is Warning About More Than Private Credit Losses Jamie Dimon is not arguing that private credit is about to become the next instant banking collapse. He is saying something more uncomfortable. The industry was built during a regime of cheap money, forgiving https://t.co/Fdylf0Us15 " / X Blue Owl Capital (OWL) One-Off $317M Loss Drives Margin Miss, Undercutting Bullish Growth Narratives Barings caps redemptions at private credit fund after investor withdrawals By Investing.com Guess who owns 20% of shares in this fund? Yes, another private credit fund: Cliffwater's Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX) -- $921M as of Q3'25. French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves - RFI Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly - SWI swissinfo.ch Qatar Begins US Troop Withdrawal – DID PRESS AGENCY George Noble on X: "Meet Marc Lipschultz. The man who got paid $23.9 million last year to tell you everything was "fine." On February 5, he sat on Blue Owl's earnings call and said: "We don't have red flags. In point of fact, we don't have yellow flags. We have largely green flags. The tech https://t.co/jgxQiy2NLy " / X (1) The Last Molecule Standing - Shanaka Anslem Perera In 1974, Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia: price your oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and America guarantees your security. The arrangement was never a formal treaty. It was a handshake backed by aircraft carriers. For fifty years, every barrel of oil sold anywhere on earth created demand for the dollar that financed America’s debt. The system required two things to function: Gulf oil priced in dollars, and an American navy guaranteeing the strait through which that oil flowed. Both conditions held until February 28, 2026 Jordan on X: "🚨 US DATA CENTER BUILDOUT HITTING A MAJOR BOTTLENECK Nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages. Companies like Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Google and OpenAI have committed over $600B to AI infrastructure this year. Critical https://t.co/31x88mYM7S " / X Physics & Astronomy Zone on X: "The highest quality video of the moon was just released… this is so beautiful. https://t.co/0JLkB0tOXv " / X

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