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Iran war update : both claiming the other one is begging for a deal, both have very different interests , clearly Trump is worried about 10's UST yields going above 4.5%, and Iran knows it, together with equity markets which didn't really react on the ''10day TACO headline last night'', markets learnings it's just 'nonsense short-term market manipulation', UAE pushes for international force to reopen Hormuz-France and many other countries trying hard too, Bessent's insurance program allegedly ready soon too Markets : UBS suspends withdrawals on real-estate fund (more GATING..), Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously, JGB's, the Japan 2-year yield has hit 30-year highs, FED officials warning on inflation, Miran talks further balance-sheet reduction, Lagarde warns Middle East war energy disruptions may last years, Global trading system hit by 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years': WTO chief >>> given all this. .. markets look to be totally underestimating the issues ahead (globally), technically SPX500, while below 200dma 6630, we have room towards 6000-6100 area, obviously much depends on MiddleEast situation, and length of the troubles, Crude still near highs of the week, didn't really react to Trump's mini TACO last night, in a way we are extending the problems/goods disruption etc.., ENERGY lockdowns are happening already, it is happening, HUGE timing for farming in Australia, seems some of them running out of diesel already=no seeding ... Britain and France will hold talks this week with military representatives from 30 countries to form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz-AFP Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08./Thread - pretty unusual move, thus important ! Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300 Key Reasons for Downgrade - Higher Oil Prices, weak FII flows https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7442480281082609664-00V1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABF-BDoBDdoqegvp6GidvrLMEDRAihKEGQw This is the real reason oil is not freely crossing the Strait of Hormuz: it`s not just the ship risk, but a single cargo of a VLCC tanker, carrying up to 2 mio barrels, is typically worth well over $100 mio. If Iran maintains control of the Strait for an extended period, the World economy could split into even more distinct geopolitical alliances. Iran’s hardliners call for a nuclear bomb, sources say Iran offers Spain rare Hormuz access France says it approached 35 countries over future Hormuz mission | The Straits Times Scott Bessent says insurance program for Hormuz ships to start soon Jeremy Kress on X: "Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08. This is the first time I can recall the Fed ever approving a regulatory action by 4-3 vote." / X Trump Lashes Out At NATO Allies And Threatens Iran NATO will remember this for a very long time—well beyond the next decade, well into the next generation. Trump has effectively shouted to the whole alliance that the United States no longer needs anything from them , and Europe has understood the message perfectly. As a result, vast sums are being redirected into European defence projects, manufacturers, and supply chains. U.S. defence contractors are likely seething at the prospect Rob Smith on X: "I'm out of diesel. All the farmers are out of diesel. This is it. We're done for. Albanese and Bowen are directly to blame. This is serious. I promise you. All other countries have diesel, and it averages $1.80 per litre in most countries in the Asia Pacific. But not Australia." / X Europe could face fuel shortage by April as Iran throttles supplies, says Shell boss | Energy industry | The Guardian Fed’s Cook says Iran war shifts risk balance toward inflation By Investing.com Fed official issues stark warning on inflation, interest-rate cuts due to Iran war Fed's Jefferson sees higher inflation from Iran war near term, signals toward holding rates steady Fed's Miran favors looking through oil price spike, says concern is about job market - AOL Lagarde warns Middle East war energy disruptions may last years By Investing.com Global trading system hit by 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years': WTO chief https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP2Y you have to go back to early 90's to have 2y JGB yields 'this high' UBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 years More 'GATING' , most likely not the last (were investors aware of this scenario?..pretty sure not all of them..) ..UBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 years. . Swiss bank said liquid assets in the Germany-based fund were insufficient to meet rise in redemption requests junkbondinvestor on X: "Cliffwater is a $33B fund invested in 50+ other funds that are all gating simultaneously. $4.6B in unfunded commitments. 14% redemption requests. S&P negative outlook. “It all works great when no one wants their money back.” https://t.co/dvaahM42nq " / X “It all works great when no one wants their money back.” George Noble on X: "Wall Street's favorite lie has 3 words: "Stay the course." Every year around this time, the biggest asset managers publish their annual letters. And every year, the message is identical: don't sell, don't time the market, just keep your money right where it is. Funny how https://t.co/vWxdAf8DJo " / X Every year around this time, the biggest asset managers publish their annual letters. And every year, the message is identical: don't sell, don't time the market, just keep your money right where it is. Funny how that advice PERFECTLY aligns with their business model OSINTdefender on X: "U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s Treasury Department is planning to add his signature to all denominations of the United States Dollar moving forward, which will mark the first time in history that the sitting president’s signature will appear on American Currency, with Trump’s https://t.co/6ET6pvpJGE " / X Will you want to own one of them?.. Jetzt gehts los: Giga-Abbauwelle bei UBS – Inside Paradeplatz

Update : Donald Trump insisted Iran is negotiating and desperate to make a deal, even as Tehran publicly rejected Washington’s overtures and issued conditions of its own . Iran is drafting a law to impose Hormuz transit tolls, Fars reported. Deployment of thousands of American troops to the Mideast has fanned fears of a risky ground invasion. White House threatens more attacks if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflict, North Korea warns the U.S. against a ground invasion of Iran— signalling it PLANS to support Tehran if the war escalates. >>> TRUMP: “I call it a ‘military operation’. I’m told not to call it a war because you’re supposed to have congressional approval to go to war.” Iran published a list of 10 countries whose citizens can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without paying 2 million dollars, and Mexico ranks second after China ….Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait/Thread Markets : Lloyd Blankfein warned of a “fire” risk in private assets, private assets, credit, markdown (joining call of what's been pointed out for a long while), Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial (opens the flood gates to many more cases that are 'halted-pending'..), Trump to Travel to China on May 14-15 for Summit With Xi, Larry Fink reminds everyone of the obvious (Crude at $150 = global recession >>> infrastructure, oil, NatGas, military bases, the next final danger is water contamination, which is 'the' most terrible act possible, let's clearly hope for some understanding between Iran and U.S/Israel, hard to follow exactly where we are , 5days deadline is tomorrow though, what next ? U.S troops on the ground, Kharg Island ? fwiw, have the feeling that Mr Market is hoping-praying-positioned for a relative short war & part resolution, while we have to hope so, markets are not positioning for a prolonged period of troubles, let alone escalation.. a deeper corrections towards SPX 6K should not be too much of a shock given elevated energy prices, crude, inflation (no FED cuts for 2026), trade dislocation, and general sentiment deteriorating, consumers, daily traders buying the dip etc, getting hurt now.. watch 200dma's, SPX500 is around 6630 (weekly close below will matter as will monthly-quarterly close next Tuesday..) Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as “haven for Jewish people” - Haaretz The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist...coincidence with office raide ..? Australians can now live & work freely in the EU for 4 years and vice versa US insists talks ongoing even as Iran rejects Trump outreach - The Business Times Iran gives five conditions for ending war, official tells state TV | Middle East Eye After Delay Due To Iran War, Trump To Meet Xi In Beijing On May 14-15 Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial - CBS News BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns $150 oil could trigger global recession JPMorgan offers clients a new way to hedge AI debt risk The Big short ? Brian Sozzi on X: "Deutsche Bank with a reminder to not overlook the current oil price shock: https://t.co/dVqVUi4Xz0 " / X Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as "haven for Jewish people" Lloyd Blankfein Warns Private Markets Face Risk of Widespread Asset Markdowns - Bloomberg Volkswagen may turn car factory into Iron Dome hub with Israel partnership | World News - Business Standard Megatron on X: "BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty. Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, https://t.co/xdsGP465Rp " / X Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist to Canadian billionaire Robert A. Pape on X: "Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait. Houthi proxies fully capable of doing this. Vessel would need to divert thru Suez, add weeks, if not months, to journeys — if further strikes don’t shutter the port completely. Escalation Trap tightens… https://t.co/gQEedVlThy " / X

Let's hope for thebest....Reports a 'proposal' for a deal...Trump backed down from his 48 hours ultimatum, not because of the war, but because of the escalation int he Gulf... so now suggests.. 'NO nuke, 1month ceasefire, reopen Hormuz and a total of 15points to end the Iran war'' (many points that were already agreed pre war at the GVA talk, a deal that was 'sabotaged' )... >>> IRAN responded to the talks, with extensive demands.. Markets : Trump ends the war, or maybe not, or it gets worse, clearly desperate to manipulate markets in short-term, sadly enough it works...all very North Korea like, Crude prices down, USD slightly softer, risk rallies a little more, PM's back up (once the 'risk-off, USD liquidity seeking scenario' out of the way..), Intel, AMD tell clients of March, April CPU price hikes, |  Meta Platforms delays EU launch of new display-equipped Ray-Ban smart glasses! >>> relief rally in risk-Eq, on hope of a deal into month-end possibly, if so, USD can weaken again for same reason, crude down to $80 perhaps, why not... Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors.. / Thread Former UK Minister Alan Duncan confirms there was a clear peace agreement mediated by Oman for ZERO nuclear proliferation in Iran. But it was sabotaged and betrayed by Israel because they always wanted to attack Iran. Israel started this war! Israel's defense minister just said Israel will occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River marking the first clear statement of intent to steal the territory Morgan Stanley analysts: “We see the $80-90 level as a 2026 price point in a de-escalation scenario . Continued constraints would likely drive an oil price near $100-110 for at least 2-3 months…Modeling oil at $150+ introduces new non-linearities to economies.” General Jim Mattis completely destroys Trump's Iran war strategy on live TV . He says hitting 15,000 targets means nothing without a real plan, and calls the demands for unconditional surrender and regime change absolute "delusional nonsense." The Rothschild raid just got bigger. French prosecutors say diplomat Fabrice Aidan transferred UN Security Council briefings to Epstein No nuke, 1-month ceasefire, opening of Strait of Hormuz: Trump's 15-point plan to end Iran war Iran responded to the Trump administration’s ceasefire proposal with extensive demands: - Closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf. - A new Strait of Hormuz framework allowing Iran to charge transit fees. - Full sanctions relief. - An end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah. - No discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Oil prices fall as Trump hails ‘productive’ conversations with Iran on an end to the war | CNN Business US Deploys Troops To Middle East While Pursuing Iran Talks On Thursday - Report - i24NEWS US sees possibility of diplomacy with Iran as war costs rise Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz. Tehran tells IMO member nations that vessels must co-ordinate with it to pass through vital waterway Israel plans to occupy southern Lebanon from the Blue Line to the Litani River - ABC News Fed's Barr: Elevated Inflation Likely Merits Extended Rate Pause | Morningstar Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (1) Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors 'Big Short' Legend Steve Eisman Says SoFi's Private Credit Problems Could Be 'Potentially A Disaster' The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it | Fortune AI boom fuels Intel, AMD CPU crunch, hits PC makers with rising costs | Tech News - Business Standard Meta Hits Pause on Ray-Ban Display Expansion to Europe and Canada some real news finally..

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