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Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties, Macron blames Brexit for rise in migrant crossings as Starmer hails ‘breakthrough’ small boats deal Markets : S&P 500: All-time high, NASDAQ: All-time high, BTC: All-time high, GOLD: All-time high, HOME PRICES: All-time high, and Mr Market has 3x Fed cuts priced in for 2025 and couple more next year. Trump goes after Canada & EU on tariffs again (trying to force a trade deal ?..), he's also using presidential power to send an big additional arms package to UKR, Market complacency evolved from "TACO" and "nothing ever happens" to now "everything is priced in" (like 50% tariffs and letters to EU/Canada), risk of correction coming (should be welcome in a rather too buoyant market..), XAGUD jumps to highest prices in 14years, on its way to +$40 this summer, Palladium reacting to Russia sanction risk.. #PALL Trump said he's disappointed in Russia and will make a big announcement on Monday Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies and leverage. Charlie Munger Governor Waller spoke on balance sheet policy . He indicated that he sees $2.7tn (9% of GDP) as a rough benchmark for “ample” reserves (down to $5.8 trn). This estimate was based off of 2019 market stress, where Waller noted reserve scarcity appeared to emerge suddenly when reserves fell below 8% of GDP St Louis Fed president Musalem remained hawkish , noting upside inflation risks and saying it would take time to determine the price impact from tariffs UK-France-EU #Brexit ''When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight'' Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees OSINTdefender on X: "U.S. President Donald J. Trump, for the first time since entering office, is reportedly preparing to use presidential power to send an additional arms package, including “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missiles and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) Munitions, to Ukraine. This https://t.co/AVK7f43osq " / X Trump puts 35% tariff on Canada, eyes 15%-20% tariffs for others | Reuters Fed Governor Waller favors cutting interest rates in July and continued shrinking of balance sheet Musalem says too soon to know if tariff inflation will be temporary, reinforcing Fed divide Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties Alex Taylor on X: ""When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight." And that's Sir Alex Younger, the longest serving head of MI6 @BBCNewsnight https://t.co/P3ycOJq4id " / X BBC Newsnight on X: "“It's absolutely obvious to me that people should have a digital identity... Let's stop shouting at the French. A lot of this is on us.” Ex-MI6 boss, Sir Alex Younger, backs calls for digital ID cards and adds that they could help deter small boat crossings. #Newsnight https://t.co/WdpLVrbjTP " / X In Depth: The Scam That Turned China’s Housing Slump Into a Cash Machine - Caixin Global BNY Mellon will have custody of Ripple's new stablecoin Bitcoin Jumps to Record on Institutional Investor Demand Nvidia and Bitcoin dodge Trump's tech tariff effects Emmanuel Macron Criticises Brexit Stronger With EU | HuffPost UK Politics Microsoft Outlook hit with hours-long outage

And whooosh $4trn market cap ! Markets : BRL tariffs are about trade war with China (and in support of Bolsonaro..), new Russia sanctions possibly-more threats to Moscow (PALL..), India-UK trade deal ahead, UK-France pledge to coordinate the use of nuclear weapons to protect EU, FOMC is split, who isn't!, JGB yield curve is staring in the abyss, still no trade deal with US either >>> low vols (MOVE index etc) keeping markets/risks happy, including BTC now who seems to want to join in the 'melt-up' Perplexity's AI-powered web browser 'Comet' with agentic search launched JPM: The overall equity movement is perceived as occurring in one of the most favorable macro environments, characterized by a depreciating dollar, narrowing credit spreads, subdued inflation, and interest rates remaining below 4.5% Trump's latter tariffs were in part due to “ insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans ” >>> 30% tariff on Iraq, Moldova gets 25% tariff, 30% tariff of Algeria, 25% tariff on Brunei, 20% tariff on the Philippines FED minutes : What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sketched out new conditions that could trigger rate cuts by summer’s end, but inflation remains a big question OPEC has widened its media ban, this time excluding the WSJ, NYT, FT, Reuters and Bloomberg from attending its biennial industry conference in Vienna Indian PM Could Visit UK in Matter of Weeks to Finalise FTA - Report Japanese Carmakers Cut US Export Prices Most In Nearly A Decade To Offset Trump Tariffs Airline giant Emirates announces they will be accepting Bitcoin and crypto as payment for flights #BTC US shale is cracking under its own weight as “Weak market conditions, tariffs, and water problems are hobbling industry operations in the Permian basin” A staggering $7.4 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new all-time high Trump floats 50% tariff on Brazil, cites treatment of Bolsonaro Trump Boasts About Threat To ‘Bomb The S**t Out Of Moscow’ In Leaked Audio | HuffPost Latest News Trump is interested in new Russia sanctions. But there’s a catch. Comet Browser: Perplexity's AI-powered web browser 'Comet' with agentic search launched | Tech News - Business Standard PM Modi likely to visit UK in late July, formalising trade deal on agenda OPEC bars five news organizations from meeting - Talking Biz News Japanese Carmakers Cut US Export Prices Most In Nearly A Decade To Offset Trump Tariffs UK, France to enable 'co-ordinated' nuclear deterrent - The Standard What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts - WSJ 50 migrants a week could be sent back to France in pilot of 'one in, one out' deal - BBC News Nick Timiraos on X: "The Fed minutes tell us something we already knew: Officials are divided into three groups 1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group) 2) No cuts this year 3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple", ie, Waller and Bowman)" / X Nvidia hits $4 trillion market cap, first company in history Meta smart glasses with display revealed in mega leak — here's everything they can do Gas Outlook | U.S. drilling slows, not expected to rebound: Dallas Federal Reserve - Gas Outlook

Markets : Musk tells Dan Ives (#TSLA 's biggest bull) to 'shut' up, Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. Trump admitted yesterday of being played by Putin (some nasty reaction could now come, he started by saying more arms for UKR... his ego won't allow him to be played by Putin for long, starting with sanctions #PALL !?.. ) , EU ready to sign 'inferior framework deal with US (FT), talked about this one very recently (2july).. #COPPER UP in NYC terms and DOWN in LDN LME (ill thought strategy by Trump..), The US Dollar has rarely ever been this oversold >>> some $$$ upside reaction together with some risk-off in weeks ahead, as Trump goes nasty on tariffs and no more TACO (let alone bigger action vs Russia, with sanctions..), take a chill pill, markets valuations are rather well/fully priced, wait for better opportunities into Aug/September, the 'debasement trade' stalled/stopped since NFP... Trump: “Putin showers us with bullshit. It sounds nice but means nothing. I’m very seriously considering sanctions against Russia. I’m not happy with Putin—he’s killing a lot of soldiers, his own and theirs. We’ve given the Ukrainians the best weapons ever made.” USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50% #TSLA Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO #XAGUSD Ed Steer: World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell >> he is panicking as there is now nearly 10months supply of new single family homes for sale, similar to Feb 2008 Meta nabs Apple AI chief – a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple’s weakness? Germany demands Apple & Google remove China’s DeepSeek AI from their app stores The US stock market has a market capitalization of $63.8T, which is more than the other markets listed below combined at $61.6T The #EUR is coming to : Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 >>> EURO also made a new all-time-high in trade weighted terms yesterday With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism Donald Trump says pharmaceutical tariffs could reach 200 per cent – The Irish Times Donald Trump deal to leave EU facing higher tariffs than UK, FT reports Trump threatens to escalate trade war amid confusion over new tariff rates | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Trump says he is not happy with Russia’s Putin, considering sanctions Trump: “Putin would’ve taken Ukraine in 3-4 days if not for Ukrainian bravery and U.S. weapons” During a press briefing, Donald Trump made a powerful statement about Ukraine's defense at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion:   “We gave them missiles — the latest and the best. This would’ve been a war lasting three, maybe four days. But they had the advantage of incredible equipment. And I’ll say this: Ukrainians — whether you think it was fair we gave them all that money or not — they were incredibly brave, because someone had to run those systems. A lot of people I know couldn’t have done it or had the courage to do so. They fought very bravely.” Ole S Hansen on X: "European opening comment on #copper: Copper futures traded in New York surged after Trump said he was focusing on a 50% tariff on imports, starting in early August, as opposed to the 25% expected by the market. The US imports more than 50% due to a lack of domestic production and" / X World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest | SilverSeek Considering the current state of affairs of the world as they stand today -- and the structural deficit in silver -- and now in platinum and palladium as well, the chance that these big bullion banks and commodity trading houses could get overrun at some point, is no longer zero -- and certainly within the realm of possibility if things go totally non-linear at some point. Gold, silver, platinum take a timeout after strong first half | Saxo Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. On our current fiscal path, US bankruptcy is simply a matter of time. Something must" / X Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege by Desmond Lachman - Project Syndicate Meta nabs Apple AI chief - a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple's weakness? Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 Luke Gromen on X: "USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50%. Gold now 2nd biggest FX reserve asset behind USD. USD + EUR share of global FX reserves was 78% in 2007; today, that is 62%. Gold now 2nd + “Other currencies” share of FX reserves was 22% in 2007; today, that is 38%. https://t.co/AYNBBhxfU7 " / X You bet ! M&S chair: UK needs to muscle up to tackle cyber threats Steve Schmidt on X: "With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism. Watch here: https://t.co/cwnjpMtOHT https://t.co/dP4wRGfJrA " / X Rachel Reeves to face fresh blow with sluggish growth data The top five UK small caps we're watching this summer – The Armchair Trader

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