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Bond, the name is Bond .. Markets : Trump's budget deal worrying bonds/usd/equity .. (rightly so, huge increase in debt etc, $37trn we are nearly there on our way to $50trn by 2034), Bessent no talk about JPY with JPN at G7 (really?), SPX5900+ top right on VIX expiry day ...Trump & Ramaphosa meeting was quite something (not too dissimilar to Zelensky's meeting..) >>> duration risk getting into inflection point and about to create or unlock some other issues across markets, precious metals breaking up, BTC all time highs, what else! #JGB's : suddenly the whole world is watching Japan's JGB's and JPY, why ? because it matters hugely, long-term carry etc #CHFJPY lower, pick your trade vs #JPY, a reminder that authorities want to avoid a 'TWD' like move in other major USD pairs... you know that are never ever supposed to happen, things like Oct 1998 in USDJPY (many others, just an example) BOJ should step in only in a 'severe' bond market rout, policymaker says Nike to hike prices as it faces tariffs uncertainty, another one in a long list of companies rising prices, quite substantially in some cases (WMT cutting jobs, Tech side too) Hassett said that the "big beautiful bill" will get the US to 3% trend growth against the 1.8% assumption from the CBO >>> all fiscal discipline has been abandoned >>> It is ALL about growth now Israel : suddenly, something is shifting, some sort of moment of judgment coming $1trn Kuwait fund’s boss sounds warning on private equity Bessent, Kato did not discuss FX levels at G-7, US Says >> small bounce to 144 overnight and right back down #USDJPY For the first time in modern financial history, Greece is borrowing at lower interest rates than the United States — even for 30-year bonds. - let that sink in... US Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato  did not discuss foreign exchange (USDJPY) levels during their meeting in Canada (really...) . However, they “reaffirmed their shared belief that exchange rates should be market determined and that, at present, the dollar-yen exchange rate reflects fundamentals” Their discussion involved issues relevant to the US-Japanese economic relationship, including global security and the ongoing bilateral trade discussions between the two nations, the department said UST 10's 4.6, 30's 5.10%... >>>> debt, debt, and more debt... no fiscal discipline... this is what is happening: Investors are worried about the US fiscal outlook. The bill is expected to add at least $3tn to the national debt over the next decade. Their fears were also reflected in a weak $16bn auction of 20-year Treasuries, which were sold at their highest interest rate since 2020. Primary dealers — banks required to buy any unsold bonds — purchased 16.9 per cent of the offering, above the average of 15.1 per cent. One analyst noted: “Markets really have no appetite for duration here.” U.S.-South Africa Tension Explained as Trump Hosts Ramaphosa US House Republicans set pre-dawn votes to get Trump tax bill over finish line | Reuters Merz Advisers See Germany in Stagnation But Recovery in Sight - Bloomberg Trump says he’s ‘seriously considering’ taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public | Donald Trump | The Guardian Nike to hike prices as it faces tariffs uncertainty Walmart plans job cuts in restructuring push to lower expenses $1 trillion billion Kuwait fund’s boss sounds warning on private equity | Luxembourg Times A moment of judgment has come at last: not just for Netanyahu but for his enablers | Owen Jones | The Guardian Two Israeli embassy staffers killed in Washington shooting, suspect held | Reuters North Korea's second naval destroyer is damaged in a failed launch at a ceremony attended by Kim Universities Are in Tumult. Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Apollo Global’s Marc Rowan Weigh In. - Barron's What’s Eating Europe’s Food System? by Elmar Hannen & Martin Häusling - Project Syndicate

Markets : momentum on this Equity rally is stalling, valuations ignoring credit and higher yields (as it is quite clear that Trump and Bessent are pushing for higher deficit with the beautiful tax break package), trade deals are NOT coming through as Trump said (as usual), in fact UK stopping negotiations with Israel on trade deal, deadline looms in early July already (if Trump loses it again in 2-3weeks, you know deals are not being signed...and they will shout and increase tariffs again), Israel threatens Iran (Oil up..), EU, UK to sanctions Russia further (PALL could run..), USD, Bonds, U.S equity softer, not a good cocktail..   SPX500 5900+, DAX 24K+, QQQ 21k+ etc...reduce risk/re-hedge some exposure #XPT that beautiful break out looks ''on'' now (see Ole's thread below) Fed officials expect tariffs to boost prices; White House downplays risk A fresh analysis from the Congressional Budget Office said the tax provisions would increase the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion over the decade , while the changes to Medicaid , food stamps and other services would tally $1 trillion in reduced spending. The lowest-income households in the U.S. would see their resources drop, while the highest ones would see a boost, the CBO said. The 60% decline in the #VIX  over the last 5-6 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history, which fuelled he fastest rally in Eq in a long time, ever probably, >>> ALL it says is the market structure has changed for good, new world order, new paradigm etc, things shift very quickly...start again...time to look at plays going back the other way, ahead of the 90day deadline in early July, you can be sure all those 100+ deals won't be done...and deficits going to explode higher again with the big beautiful tax deal... China debuts world’s first quantum cryptography system, claims it’s ‘unhackable’ The Atlantic: Trump spent 2 hours on the phone with Putin — and got nothing...Putin says he is “ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum for a potential future peace treaty… The danger is that growth momentum (in China) may slip further : even putting aside the export sector, domestic demand now seems to be softening almost across the board.” Gavekal Dragonomics FANNIE MAE DOWNGRADED TO AA1 BY MOODY’S, they had to, if the guarantor (U.S Govt) gets downgraded to AA1.. SCMP: "President Xi Jinping says self-reliance in advanced manufacturing is the right path for China and the bedrock for its future economic development." WTI jumped after CNN reported that US intelligence suggested Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities The budget includes $25bn for the ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence shield. Trump said it should be fully operational by the end of his term and may cost $175 billion (FT, BBG) New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN Politics House GOP grinding ahead with Trump's big tax cuts bill, but new report says it will add to deficit EU, Britain go ahead with new Russia sanctions without waiting for Trump | Reuters Microsoft-backed AI startup Builder.ai enters insolvency proceedings | Sifted How do you monetize AI... China’s Xi doubles down on self-reliance, rallying officials to bolster manufacturing | South China Morning Post China debuts world’s first quantum cryptography system, claims it’s ‘unhackable’ Trump's approval rating slides to match lowest this term, new poll shows Trump's mass layoff threat drives US government workers to resign | Reuters Trump rolls out 'Golden Dome' missile defense system plan UK inflation leaps to higher-than-expected 3.5%, ONS says Jim Stewartson, Antifascist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🏴‍☠️🇺🇸 on X: "My god, Putin says he is “ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum for a potential future peace treaty… including a potential temporary cease fire, if relevant agreements are reached.” In other words, “Tap, tap, tap, I’ll play along but I’m not doing shit.” https://t.co/7rCirL3P6u " / X and Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Putin is the boss The Atlantic: Trump spent 2 hours on the phone with Putin — and got nothing. Putin framed the call first, offering vague talk of a memorandum on a peace deal. Meanwhile, Russia launched a massive drone strike on Ukraine. 1/ https://t.co/I9ldus2HNk " / X If you really need to.. One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History | The Week in Charts (5/16/25) | Charlie Bilello Japan-US to base talks on past FX agreement, Kato says | Reuters Ole S Hansen on X: "One to watch: London #Platinum Week starts today with #XPT hovering just below key resistance after the WPIC in a quarterly outlook said the market could face a near 1 million troy ounce deficit in 2025 Note, the upper trendline dates back 17 years to 2008 https://t.co/1IpTeme3O7 " / X William Huo on X: "Nvidia is cooked. Huawei already won. Barron’s won’t tell you, but here’s what they’re afraid to print. https://t.co/0R16MhtX01 " / X Subaru of America increases vehicle prices, citing market conditions Lingling Wei 魏玲灵 on X: "“The danger is that growth momentum (in China) may slip further: even putting aside the export sector, domestic demand now seems to be softening almost across the board.” Gavekal Dragonomics https://t.co/fKCvWQIBAH " / X Landslide threat: authorities order evacuation of Swiss mountain village - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : Tom Lee said 'there is no signal in Moody's downgrade', move along please, new highs coming in Eq (always a bull), SK and U.S trade talks stalling, higher deficit coming : Hasset (bearish USD and bullish GOLD), Ray Dalio ''risk to UST's is even greater than what Moody's is saying'', GOP Sen. Johnson said to Trump "will increase [the deficit] by $4 trillion with the Big Beautiful Bill," and that Medicaid will be cut: "Now what are you going to cut? Medicaid, absolutely", RBA cut 25bps down to 3.85% (was fully priced), Trump said UKR and RU immediately starting ceasefire negotiations, Kremlin says no timeline yet.. Jamie Dimon talked about bad credit risks on the increase >>> overall JPY-JGB yields keeping JPY firm (on another inauguration 2.0 scenario, and long-end properly selling off, USDJPY 120 area in 2025 is the ultimate risk-off trade/hedge perhaps - one of them >> BUY 6-9mos #JPYcalls), while overall USD remains soft (USD, GOLD, BONDS #duaration moved swiftly together yesterday..) and SPX500 are levels to take profit/hedge/sit back and enjoy the summer...wait for new opportunities Regarding the recent U.S. debt downgrade : it's important to understand that credit ratings tend to underrepresent the full scope of credit risk. These ratings primarily assess the likelihood of a government defaulting—i.e., not repaying its debt—while overlooking a more nuanced but significant risk: that of monetary debasement #USD (could argue most likely path leads to USD downside, GOLD upside, equity will they/won't they like softer usd.., lower bonds/steeper curves) In other words, governments may choose to print more money to meet their debt obligations, which doesn't reduce the nominal repayments but does erode the real value of the money received >>>> for investors concerned with preserving purchasing power, this represents a material risk that is not fully captured by traditional credit ratings. As such, the perceived safety of U.S. government debt may be overstated by the rating agencies Japan’s Prime Minister says his country’s financial situation is worse than that of Greece >>>  Debt-to-GDP is over 260% — the highest in the developed world, aging population, fewer workers, higher int rates making debt payment unsustainable.. Japan's 30y JGB yields 3.13% .. #duration #JPY Germany drops its decade-old anti-nuclear stance . German and French officials confirm Germany will no longer oppose nuclear in EU energy policy. A historic shift! #BTC this is a big test of the narrative form here on >>> higher 30y yields and softer USD, this is a big test to see if BTC breaks higher this summer.. EU likely to propose to G7 lowering price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel NY Fed President John Williams says you can take the summer off , watching data.. #XAU Gold markets are cited by ECB as a risk to financial stability - “Additionally, disruptions in the physical gold market could increase the risk of a squeeze..." TSMC plans 30% price hike for AI chips “Made in USA” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned, on Sunday, that Tehran may block the Strait of Hormuz if efforts to restrict its oil exports persist. - Shafaq News France's government covered up Nestle's illegal treatment of bottled water FBI agent goes public with Russian intelligence Op that hooked Musk & Thiel RBA cuts cash rate to 3.85% as inflation eases - Sharecafe Fed's Williams says he has not seen any big move out of US assets, monetary policy in good place Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree to immediate ceasefire talks, Kremlin offers no timeframe | Reuters Nvidia plans to sell tech to speed AI chip communication | Reuters Michael Saylor's $40bn bitcoin bet | FT Film Out together by FT's Katie Martin FBI Agent Goes Public With Russian Intelligence Operation That Hooked Musk And Thiel – @saywhat-politics on Tumblr Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "“The China-US tariff negotiations are likely to go wrong again. The second round of tariff talks ended in South Korea. This time there was no news publicity and no results were exposed. Bessant said Trump would restore the tariff levels announced on April 2 for countries that https://t.co/MynBULA2sr " / X Why The Qataris Are Happy To Dump Their 747 On Trump President Pezeshkian at Tehran Forum: Iran could block Strait of Hormuz - Ray Dalio says risk to U.S. Treasurys greater than what Moody's says Romania: Historic victory for pro-European candidate UBS to Close Robo-Advisor, Joining Big Banks’ Retreat From Digital Advice An inquiry says France's government covered up Nestle's illegal treatment of bottled water Japan PM Ishiba Rebuffs Tax Cut Demands With Greek Debt Comparison - Bloomberg EU likely to propose to G7 lowering price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel What does the record price of gold tell us about risk perceptions in financial markets? Why gold in 2025? What happened to US exceptionalism? As we entered 2025, expectations for the US economy were at their highest compared to the previous two years (Chart 1) and there was widespread belief that strong growth and significant asset-price increases would continue in 2025. The Trump administration’s planned economic and policy reforms, including slashing red tape and cutting taxes, added to this optimism, suggesting that American exceptionalism would persist. Gold Markets Are Cited by ECB as a Risk to Financial Stability - Bloomberg Keir Starmer on X: "You deserve better than the last government's deal. It wasn’t working for anyone.    Here’s 10 ways today’s deal with the EU will benefit Britain ⬇️" / X Peter Stefanovic on X: "A good summary from @BBCNews @benchu on the UK-EU reset deal https://t.co/IX4DX6SEnJ " / X South Korea, US to hold 2nd round of tariff talks in Washington this week -

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