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Markets : USD vs JPY spread divergence (currency vs yields), many confused, see chart-Thread below, yields up & currency down, classic EMG style disaster..!..no wonder wiht 250% DEBT/GDP... (till BoJ intervenes, maybe), the divergence is epic! and MP Takaichi likely to call Feb election, U.S CPI in-line at 2.7% (MORE important is PCE which is trending UP! thread), Powell battles with Trump (how about Powell stays for another term !! that would be quite something, as expected!..Venezuela is a nightmare for Trump too-Thread below, how can CHINA (customs) trade surplus be UP by $200bn (all amid a trade war with the U.S :..surplus with europe..) >>> previous, base metals, commods higher 'what else''.. !!..equity totally unbothered (BONDS super quiet-steady for now anyway), JGB's 30y 3.53% that's the worry #duration, currencies pretty steady too by default though JPY softer, the basket case Geopolitics : Trump urges Iran protesters to persist as death toll rises (does he have a plan !!?), Greenland PM sides with Danemark and Europe (Trump unhappy-again), Putin launches massive missile and drone attack on UKR again, "The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America."-FT #USD, SpaceX engineers are working around the clock to bypass Starlink jamming by the Iranian regime Trade : China’s trade surplus swelled to $1.2 trillion in 2025 as exports increased 6.6% last month, more than double the median estimate! (CNH can head higher..), Captured Venezuelan tanker Bella 1 was found to be carrying Iranian drones and large sums of cash, British naval fleet has received the green light to seize ships in the waters of the Atlantic and the English Channel France has opened applications for a voluntary 10-month national service for young people. “From drone operator to baker… nursing assistant, cyber defender.” Spanish police seize record 10 tonnes ! of cocaina! hidden in salt shipment The dark fleet of tankers shipping illicit oil is rushing to seek the perceived protection of the Russian flag after the US seized vessels involved in the Venezuelan trade. At least 26 ships switched registration to Russia since the start of December, Starboard Maritime Intelligence data showed Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi announces that Japan has discovered over 500 trillion yen worth of rare earth #RARE >> less reliant on China.. Silver price nears $90 as record run continues - MINING.COM Iran protest: Death toll reaches 646, Trump says Iran wants to talk Ukraine war latest: Putin launches massive missile and drone assault across Ukraine | World News | Sky News Trump Urges Iranians to Keep Up Protests Amid Crackdown How to de-risk from America China's annual trade surplus hits a record $1.2 trillion as December exports beat Brad Setser on X: "China's $1 trillion trade surplus is one of those facts that folks remember. But China's surplus is actually substantially bigger -- close to $1.2 trillion for calendar 2025 ... 1/ https://t.co/U2cfMAA57T " / X Skanda Amarnath on X: "Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now https://t.co/P88d6UHmCR " / X Japan’s Takaichi poised to call snap election just 4 months after taking office | The Independent Trump's 'big problem' warning for Greenland's PM over decision to side with Denmark amid take over bid Greenland summit at White House could shape future of the Arctic CPI inflation report December 2026: Prices rose at 2.6% annual rate Justice department’s probe into Jay Powell galvanises Fed leaders to repel Donald Trump’s attacks Extreme AI Concentration in the S&P 500 - Apollo Academy Recap : a lot of the reasons we talked about in recent months, to NOT hold USDollars George Noble on X: "You might be watching the beginning of the end for the dollar's dominance. And if you're still holding dollar-denominated assets while this unfolds in real time... Let me tell you something: On Friday, the Department of Justice served Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with https://t.co/2UGqcaZIAb " / X British ministers: Law allows shadow fleet tankers to be seized - Baltic News Network Trump Flips off Antagonizing Worker at Ford Plant in Michigan George Noble on X: "I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN And there's a huge problem. Everyone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices. But here's what nobody's talking about: The infrastructure is DEAD. 30 years of socialist mismanagement https://t.co/wHIx2y3htR " / X Police seize record 10 tonnes of cocaine hidden in salt shipment | The Independent The DEA, UK, France, Portugal, and Brazil all helped. JPM: Novo CSO craves 'different flavors' of pipeline innovation Another retail icon going Saks Group reportedly preparing to file bankruptcy after missing debt payment Guilherme Tavares on X: "Something doesn’t make sense here. There is a strong divergence between the JP 40Y vs. U.S. 10Y spread and the JPY/USD exchange rate. The JPY should be trading higher, given that the JP 40Y is trading like a meme stock. https://t.co/9MMbnPq2vA " / X hahah :-) Open Source Intel on X: "In China, driverless delivery vans have turned into roaming memes, unstoppable machines rolling over roads, bikes, and whatever’s in the way. https://t.co/nncGpPktxo " / X

Markets : Great podcast from David Tate on Gold, well worth a listen IMHO (link below) , JPM kicks off earnings season today, JGBs JPY both weaker (EMG basket case..like..), precious continues (debasement, inflate away, debt spiral looks unstoppable with current governments in place...''debt will tears up apart!..'', ''run it hot''...is all current governments know... , Bessent told Trump that investigation of Fed chair creates a mess.. >>> commodities cycle higher is here and yet the whole world is too lightly positioned for it (  2011, the last commodity cycle peaked at 12 percent commodity allocation - Currently we are sitting at ~3 percent-chart available), our final advice is it's still 'overbought short-term, and under-owned long-term!!.. Geopolitics : Iran Is Hunting Down Starlink Users to Stop Protest Videos From Going Global. Video from the streets is one of the few ways of getting information out about the scale of the protests and authorities’ actions, The UK is preparing to raid and seize Russian “dark fleet” oil tankers, according to the BBC, Jerusalem Post: The dominant assessment in israel is that the Iranian regime is moving to completely extinguish the protests within the next 24 to 48 hours. This doesn’t sound good at all...!...American Stratotanker refuelling aircraft and NATO early warning aircraft have been seen circling the southern border of Iran likely indicating large airforce activity ongoing Trade : Trump announces 25% tariff on countries ‘doing business’ with Iran #USDJPY |   The yen weakened to its lowest since July 2024 and stocks soared after Kyodo reported PM Sanae Takaichi intends to call a snap election . The move is aimed at solidifying support for her hawkish political stance and pro-stimulus policies. (BBG)  WELL worth a listen, he has a pretty unique perspective on it, from star trader to CEO, miners, largest gold buyers, anyone more qualified ?.. David Tait: Inside Gold’s Rele…–The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost – Apple Podcasts Macro, core fear of debt, JPN situation (cash held at home, into Gold etc..), India and deregulation in China, geopolitics and essentially debt spiral, fear of debt, as we been talking for a long while, ''debt will tear us a part''...inflation... Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different? | Saxo Bank Switzerland Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans . We have had three strong years for equity markets and US markets are seeing record high valuation. 2026 may get under way with more volatility across markets Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification | Saxo Bank Switzerland Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification "The challenge in Q1 2026 isn’t predicting the future of AI — it’s preparing portfolios for every version of it." Lyse Doucet: Iran's rulers face biggest challenge since 1979 revolution Top Republicans say Trump’s pardons raise 'fundamental questions' about White House process Scoop: Bessent told Trump that investigation of Fed chair creates a mess  A perturbed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told President Trump late Sunday that the federal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair "made a mess" and could be bad for financial markets, per two sources familiar with the call. Pirro defends investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid backlash - ABC News 'Sell America' trade returns as Trump's DOJ probes Powell Trump administration close to finalizing Taiwan trade pact | Financial Post Trump threatens to shut ExxonMobil out of Venezuela Microsoft warns that China is winning AI race outside the west Microsoft warns that China is winning AI race outside the west. DeepSeek’s technology is being rapidly adopted across Africa and beyond, tech group’s research shows UBS CEO Ermotti to step down in April 2027 after steering Credit Suisse integration, FT reports BBC Newsnight on X: "“I think it is fundamentally the end of the Islamic Republic” Ex MI6 Chief, Sir Alex Younger, tells @vicderbyshire that even if the Iranian government suppresses opposition this time, “it’s the end longer term for the Islamic Republic” #Newsnight https://t.co/bAEMTiBd64 " / X

Markets : Powell targeted by federal probe, caping CC interest rates 'another manipulation'', NFP +50K (NO hire NO fire job market..and struggling overall clearly!) , US government interest payments are now up to an annualized record of $1.47 trillion, --Trump-s NO plan on Ven--.. . says he may block Exxon from Venezuela after its CEO called the country “uninvestable.” , europe stages a fight back on Greenland... >>> FED bashing = higher metals, perfect storm, Gold, copper, then energy ?? the subpoena could turn nasty, so perhaps an excuse for an equity market correction lower, January's often see some drastic swings, first move of the year not always the right one, momentum turns, etc etc Geopolitics : European countries, led by the UK and Germany, are discussing plans for a military presence in Greenland, China gets 15-20% of its oil imports from Iran, 56% from Ven (it could have an impact!), the Iranian Regime has begun attacking the Starlink network with military jammers to suppress footage of the revolution, Elon Musk claimed Starlink can’t be blocked (unconfirmed but dreadful reports coming out of Iran, high casualties, AND Iran says it will execute the first group of convicted protest “ringleaders” on Wednesday. Some hangings may be carried out publicly/good grief)...will it push Trump to react before that..?.. In a jaw-dropping warning, French Army General Nicolas Richoux cautioned America by declaring, "Greenland is the red line. If the US invades, they stop being systemic adversaries — they become enemies. If the US attacks Greenland, we must fight the Americans.", Former Dutch Chief of Defence Berlijn warns annexation of Greenland will cost the US its military bases in Europe. "Forget about Ramstein, Lakenheath, Mildenhall, Aviano, Alconbury, Lajes, Móron and Zaragoza" Trump said the US is monitoring Iran protests and “looking at some very strong options.” At least 544 people have died and over 10,000 have been arrested in the unrest, according to activists. Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention. The fall of the Islamic Republic would reshape global geopolitics and energy markets. EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain Reform UK leader vows to overturn any insurance deal with Brussels, saying such a move would be a ‘democratic outrage’ Fed chair Powell says targeted by federal probe Tillis Statement on Federal Reserve Nominations - Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator for... Iran edges closer to a revolution that would reshape the world UK, Germany discuss Nato forces in Greenland after Trump asks US special forces to plan invasion – Firstpost US will take Greenland the 'hard way' if it can't do it the 'easy way,' Trump says Trump calls for a 10% cap on credit card rates in his latest appeal to affordability concerns | CNN Business Taiwan’s 2025 trade surplus nearly doubles amid AI-driven demand EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain Venezuela Oil Boom? BIG setback for Trump as US companies set THESE conditions before investing, say US must ensure… - News24 Malaysia and Indonesia block Elon Musk's Grok due to nonconsensual sexual content Meta just bought enough nuclear to power 5 million homes Nestlé carrying out ‘largest product recall in its history’ - SWI swissinfo.ch December jobs report shows signs of employment slowdown to end 2025 US jobs add 50,000 in December, miss estimates as unemployment dips to 4.4% Swiss unemployment continues to rise - SWI swissinfo.ch NO new hiring like in many other places...and loads of ex CS folks now coming off payrolls Global Markets Investor on X: "🔴Gold is flooding out of the US at a record pace: US non-monetary gold exports surged to a record $17.1 BILLION in October. This refers to physical bullion shipped for investment, jewelry, and industrial use, not central bank reserves. This marks an unprecedented spike https://t.co/qXKtYQsgAG " / X

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