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Markets : #USD Donald Trump’s ‘unpredictable’ policies to fuel multiyear shift from US/Pimco (turned seller of US equities)....just wait until we get to midterms.., he also threatened the use of the Insurrection Act (MUSK pushing..), #RARE White House seeks critical minerals import reductions, FED cut only in 2nd half of 2026, AMZN & Rio Tinto when tech and mining meet !, China FX interventions in Dec were MASSIVE-Thread, BofA: No signs of pulling back…Hyperscalers expected to spend $400bn in 2025 and $510bn in 2026 (A lot more debt to be issued..) >>> bonds quiet (long-end ticked ticked up a little), FX pretty quiet, USD back to early Dec levels, USDCNH 6.96 still though (key...without interventions, USDCNH would and should be a lot lower..), software stocks hammered (AI comes for free..), OIL vs Gold relative price (Crude too cheap-chart), Cocoa prices 2y lows! choccy lovers rejoice Trade : Everyone expected tariffs to reduce the current account deficit and restore US jobs. But the numbers tell a different story/Thread, France warns US that Greenland seizure would endanger EU trade-FT, Xi hails 'turnaround in China-Canada ties Geopolitics : f or the first time, Europe has blocked Russian access to the Baltic Sea (could be seriously bad for Putin), U.S-Iran...The strike was real. The reversal was real. This is state-level controlled ignition (Thread) Iran blinked. Trump flexed. But neither side collapsed. This was a trial run , the US gained full-spectrum data on Iranian readiness, US forces seize a sixth Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Caribbean Sea, EU ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine-FT, Iran won’t lift the internet shutdown until at least mid-March, according to IranWire. That is completely insane. Both Fannie and Freddie report Multifamily Delinquencies rise again, hit new Post-Great recession high GOLD : In case you missed it. The four countries that bought the most gold over the past 25 years were dismissed as only ‘a small number of countries’ with a declining preference for the dollar in a paper by the Federal Reserve. The countries referred to: China India Russia Turkey US data centers will consume nearly 10% of the entire US power grid by 2030. This is 4 TIMES the percentage seen in China Iran: UN Security Council called for emergency meeting Security Council LIVE: UN raises alarm over deadly Iran protests and ‘possible military strikes’ | UN News White House seeks critical minerals import reductions - Recycling Today Amazon Web Services signs up as first customer for Rio Tinto’s ‘greener’ copper venture Nuton | The Nightly GoldNuggets — Golden Energy - by Callum Thomas The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates any time soon. Here’s why that might be good news | CNN Business France warns US that Greenland seizure would endanger EU trade US, Taiwan clinch deal to cut tariffs, boost chip investment EU ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine spooks European capitals Xi hails 'turnaround' in China-Canada ties as Carney visits Beijing - BBC News This is the perhaps best illustration that Trump's new "Monroe doctrine" is objectively achieving the exact opposite of what it intends. George Noble on X: "I JUST BROKE DOWN THE REAL NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S TARIFFS Everyone expected tariffs to reduce the current account deficit and restore US jobs. But the numbers tell a different story. China just posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. The biggest in history. Up 20% from https://t.co/ApGjeHbEin " / X Markets can price risk. They cannot price uncertainty. Right now markets are complacent. The VIX is subdued. Credit spreads are tight. But if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, uncertainty escalates dramatically. No one knows what happens to the $195 billion already collected. No one knows if companies get refunds. No one knows what Trump's next move is if he loses this authority. Donald Trump’s ‘unpredictable’ policies to fuel multiyear shift from US, Pimco says US forces seize a sixth Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Caribbean Sea Brad Setser on X: "It has been a while since anyone posted a jaw dropping intervention number. China's December intervention was done through the backdoor (the state banks) but it was massive -- $100b in spot purchases, $120b in spot and in new (net) forwards ... https://t.co/g4X5KDO8HH " / X Germany Starts Blocking Russian-Linked Shadow Fleet Tankers in Baltic and North Seas — UNITED24 Media Germany has denied entry into the Baltic Sea to the Cameroon-flagged tanker "shadow tanker" Tavian. Russia only has 2% of the Baltic coast, while NATO has the rest. A full blockade would have Putin on his knees 'Massive' Russian Losses in Ukraine Push It Toward Breaking Point: Official - Business Insider What does a debt crisis look like in the G10? There's a widespread view that G10 countries can't have debt crises because their central banks can print money and cap yields. It's not that simple. Japan is capping yields but that means its currency is falling sharply. The end of the road in the G10... Multifamily Delinquencies Rise Again, Hit New Post-Great Recession High | Mises Institute Spotify hikes prices for the third time in 3 years SightBringer on X: "⚡️This is a live containment operation. The strike was real. The reversal was real. This is state-level controlled ignition. There was a greenlight. Then a high-level override. Carrier strike groups moved. Bombers were armed. Evacuation flights were ordered, then stood down." / X

Ex GOOG CEO, Eric Schmidt: “Electricity is the natural limit for AI.” Everybody at the frontiers of the AI is saying the same thing: Power is the limiting factor/Thread-video Markets : U.S : The Nov. PPI YoY prices+3%, versus exp of 2.7%, crude down 5% as Trump said he got assurances that the 'killings' have stopped and there are no plans for executions in Iran, he also dais suddenly he has no plan to fire Powell, and apparently he never said he wanted to take Greenland :-) The FED's $420 Billion Wall Street bailout (again..), USD index trading around 50 and 200dma levels (vols super low if you looking for a sudden move), Fed’s Beige Book shows economy picking up >>>> 'ENERGY' equity breaking up #XLE (huge opportunity-see Eric Schmidt below..), JPM was down 5% after earnings, bonds and FX super quiet still, BTC bounced 10pct off Dec lows too, beware second half correction in Jan, after a 'euphoriac' start to the year Geopolitics : Iranian cargo ship Rona has reportedly sunk in the Caspian Sea which was carrying significant weapons cargo to Russia, Denmark’s Foreign Minister after the Greenland meeting: “It’s clear the president has a wish to conquer Greenland.” That’s not diplomacy. That’s colonial language, out loud, German Troops will arrive in Greenland tomorrow, under Danish command., beyond the push for a European Army, the EU just reclassified nuclear weapons as acceptable investment under its ESG finance framework , Son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempting to seek refuge in Dubai (and others it seems, also huge cash transfers out of Iran, banks collapsing, approaching end game it seems), Saudi Arabia has formally informed Washington that it will not permit United States military aircraft to use Saudi airspace for any strikes against Iran. Germany's Merz admits: It was a serious strategic mistake to exit nuclear energy The US collected a record $267 billion in customs duties in 2025, x higher than in 2024 Carney government in talks with China about EV tariffs, this would be a massive win for Beijing and one of the fastest ways Canada could fight back against Trump... Rick Rieder of BlackRock says steady CPI data show inflation is “yesterday’s problem,” while labor market weaknesses are now the Fed’s bigger concern. He notes recent strong economic growth has not translated into job gains, a trend the Fed is likely watching closely UK : Khan: We could be heading for new era of mass unemployment We are in the early phase of 4th commodity super‑cycle : a rare convergence of forces with the unwinding of a 40y debt boom, de‑globalization of trade, green‑energy transition, and renewed great‑power rivalries all round the globe, not cyclical but more like long‑term shift, core repricing, debasement of currencies, fundamental repricing of monetary metals, now it's fair to say we already have had to huge move since focusing on this last 1-2years, but now 'energy' should be the focus too.. Oil declines, gold soars in 2025: Next phase in commodity super cycle Iran latest: Protester Erfan Soltani has not been sentenced to death after fears of execution, says Tehran | World News | Sky News Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification | Saxo Bank Switzerland Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different? | Saxo Bank Switzerland Nuclear weapons are now ESG compliant Japan in Crisis - Robin J Brooks The BoJ is still buying lots of JGBs (blue). As long as that's going on, it makes no sense for the MoF to intervene to strengthen then Yen (black). Such intervention quite simply can't work. If Japan wants a stronger Yen, BoJ needs to stop buying JGBs... Trump says Tehran wants to negotiate as he weighs U.S. response to regime's crackdown on protests | CBC News Carney government in talks with China about EV tariffs Khan: We could be heading for new era of mass unemployment Fed’s Beige Book shows economy picking up, employment unchanged US Senate narrowly blocks effort to rein in Trump's Venezuela war powers | Reuters The Federal Reserve’s $420 Billion Wall Street Bailout Massive, unprecedented payouts from the New York Federal Reserve could signal that big banks are seriously short on cash, In all, the new bailouts are already 60% of the amount of the financial crisis TARP bailout. Silver at USD 90 when hard-asset demand meets momentum | Saxo Feels like time to buy some crude - everyone bearish etc etc . . Ole S Hansen on X: "#CrudeOil’s rebound is gathering pace, with both Brent and WTI trading at their highest levels since mid-November. The move reflects a classic short-covering and momentum-driven squeeze after many traders and investors entered the year positioned for lower prices amid widespread https://t.co/PclV4u0Fk7 " / X 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Trump is threatening a new 25% tariff war? Here’s what actually happened last time, in data, not delusion. MAGA keeps shouting “We will make China hurt.” Reality? China answered with numbers, and those numbers buried Trump’s “business genius.” 1、The 145% tariff https://t.co/QWRtybz9DH " / X Meanwhile the US got: • Higher prices • Broken supply chains • Angry businesses • Zero strategic wins Conclusion: Trump didn’t expose China’s weakness. He exposed how irrelevant the US market has become. MAGA hears “strength.” The world hears a declining empire screaming at countries it can no longer control. Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸 on X: "Eric Schmidt: “Electricity is the natural limit for AI.” Everybody at the frontiers of the AI is saying the same thing: Power is the limiting factor. As Trump urges hyperscalers to pay all by themseves for the electricity, I think enablers of the behind-the-meter arrangements https://t.co/tsUPvEdw5A " / X

Markets : USD vs JPY spread divergence (currency vs yields), many confused, see chart-Thread below, yields up & currency down, classic EMG style disaster..!..no wonder wiht 250% DEBT/GDP... (till BoJ intervenes, maybe), the divergence is epic! and MP Takaichi likely to call Feb election, U.S CPI in-line at 2.7% (MORE important is PCE which is trending UP! thread), Powell battles with Trump (how about Powell stays for another term !! that would be quite something, as expected!..Venezuela is a nightmare for Trump too-Thread below, how can CHINA (customs) trade surplus be UP by $200bn (all amid a trade war with the U.S :..surplus with europe..) >>> previous, base metals, commods higher 'what else''.. !!..equity totally unbothered (BONDS super quiet-steady for now anyway), JGB's 30y 3.53% that's the worry #duration, currencies pretty steady too by default though JPY softer, the basket case Geopolitics : Trump urges Iran protesters to persist as death toll rises (does he have a plan !!?), Greenland PM sides with Danemark and Europe (Trump unhappy-again), Putin launches massive missile and drone attack on UKR again, "The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America."-FT #USD, SpaceX engineers are working around the clock to bypass Starlink jamming by the Iranian regime Trade : China’s trade surplus swelled to $1.2 trillion in 2025 as exports increased 6.6% last month, more than double the median estimate! (CNH can head higher..), Captured Venezuelan tanker Bella 1 was found to be carrying Iranian drones and large sums of cash, British naval fleet has received the green light to seize ships in the waters of the Atlantic and the English Channel France has opened applications for a voluntary 10-month national service for young people. “From drone operator to baker… nursing assistant, cyber defender.” Spanish police seize record 10 tonnes ! of cocaina! hidden in salt shipment The dark fleet of tankers shipping illicit oil is rushing to seek the perceived protection of the Russian flag after the US seized vessels involved in the Venezuelan trade. At least 26 ships switched registration to Russia since the start of December, Starboard Maritime Intelligence data showed Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi announces that Japan has discovered over 500 trillion yen worth of rare earth #RARE >> less reliant on China.. Silver price nears $90 as record run continues - MINING.COM Iran protest: Death toll reaches 646, Trump says Iran wants to talk Ukraine war latest: Putin launches massive missile and drone assault across Ukraine | World News | Sky News Trump Urges Iranians to Keep Up Protests Amid Crackdown How to de-risk from America China's annual trade surplus hits a record $1.2 trillion as December exports beat Brad Setser on X: "China's $1 trillion trade surplus is one of those facts that folks remember. But China's surplus is actually substantially bigger -- close to $1.2 trillion for calendar 2025 ... 1/ https://t.co/U2cfMAA57T " / X Skanda Amarnath on X: "Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now https://t.co/P88d6UHmCR " / X Japan’s Takaichi poised to call snap election just 4 months after taking office | The Independent Trump's 'big problem' warning for Greenland's PM over decision to side with Denmark amid take over bid Greenland summit at White House could shape future of the Arctic CPI inflation report December 2026: Prices rose at 2.6% annual rate Justice department’s probe into Jay Powell galvanises Fed leaders to repel Donald Trump’s attacks Extreme AI Concentration in the S&P 500 - Apollo Academy Recap : a lot of the reasons we talked about in recent months, to NOT hold USDollars George Noble on X: "You might be watching the beginning of the end for the dollar's dominance. And if you're still holding dollar-denominated assets while this unfolds in real time... Let me tell you something: On Friday, the Department of Justice served Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with https://t.co/2UGqcaZIAb " / X British ministers: Law allows shadow fleet tankers to be seized - Baltic News Network Trump Flips off Antagonizing Worker at Ford Plant in Michigan George Noble on X: "I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN And there's a huge problem. Everyone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices. But here's what nobody's talking about: The infrastructure is DEAD. 30 years of socialist mismanagement https://t.co/wHIx2y3htR " / X Police seize record 10 tonnes of cocaine hidden in salt shipment | The Independent The DEA, UK, France, Portugal, and Brazil all helped. JPM: Novo CSO craves 'different flavors' of pipeline innovation Another retail icon going Saks Group reportedly preparing to file bankruptcy after missing debt payment Guilherme Tavares on X: "Something doesn’t make sense here. There is a strong divergence between the JP 40Y vs. U.S. 10Y spread and the JPY/USD exchange rate. The JPY should be trading higher, given that the JP 40Y is trading like a meme stock. https://t.co/9MMbnPq2vA " / X hahah :-) Open Source Intel on X: "In China, driverless delivery vans have turned into roaming memes, unstoppable machines rolling over roads, bikes, and whatever’s in the way. https://t.co/nncGpPktxo " / X

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