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Markets : Powell targeted by federal probe, caping CC interest rates 'another manipulation'', NFP +50K (NO hire NO fire job market..and struggling overall clearly!) , US government interest payments are now up to an annualized record of $1.47 trillion, --Trump-s NO plan on Ven--.. . says he may block Exxon from Venezuela after its CEO called the country “uninvestable.” , europe stages a fight back on Greenland... >>> FED bashing = higher metals, perfect storm, Gold, copper, then energy ?? the subpoena could turn nasty, so perhaps an excuse for an equity market correction lower, January's often see some drastic swings, first move of the year not always the right one, momentum turns, etc etc Geopolitics : European countries, led by the UK and Germany, are discussing plans for a military presence in Greenland, China gets 15-20% of its oil imports from Iran, 56% from Ven (it could have an impact!), the Iranian Regime has begun attacking the Starlink network with military jammers to suppress footage of the revolution, Elon Musk claimed Starlink can’t be blocked (unconfirmed but dreadful reports coming out of Iran, high casualties, AND Iran says it will execute the first group of convicted protest “ringleaders” on Wednesday. Some hangings may be carried out publicly/good grief)...will it push Trump to react before that..?.. In a jaw-dropping warning, French Army General Nicolas Richoux cautioned America by declaring, "Greenland is the red line. If the US invades, they stop being systemic adversaries — they become enemies. If the US attacks Greenland, we must fight the Americans.", Former Dutch Chief of Defence Berlijn warns annexation of Greenland will cost the US its military bases in Europe. "Forget about Ramstein, Lakenheath, Mildenhall, Aviano, Alconbury, Lajes, Móron and Zaragoza" Trump said the US is monitoring Iran protests and “looking at some very strong options.” At least 544 people have died and over 10,000 have been arrested in the unrest, according to activists. Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention. The fall of the Islamic Republic would reshape global geopolitics and energy markets. EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain Reform UK leader vows to overturn any insurance deal with Brussels, saying such a move would be a ‘democratic outrage’ Fed chair Powell says targeted by federal probe Tillis Statement on Federal Reserve Nominations - Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator for... Iran edges closer to a revolution that would reshape the world UK, Germany discuss Nato forces in Greenland after Trump asks US special forces to plan invasion – Firstpost US will take Greenland the 'hard way' if it can't do it the 'easy way,' Trump says Trump calls for a 10% cap on credit card rates in his latest appeal to affordability concerns | CNN Business Taiwan’s 2025 trade surplus nearly doubles amid AI-driven demand EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain Venezuela Oil Boom? BIG setback for Trump as US companies set THESE conditions before investing, say US must ensure… - News24 Malaysia and Indonesia block Elon Musk's Grok due to nonconsensual sexual content Meta just bought enough nuclear to power 5 million homes Nestlé carrying out ‘largest product recall in its history’ - SWI swissinfo.ch December jobs report shows signs of employment slowdown to end 2025 US jobs add 50,000 in December, miss estimates as unemployment dips to 4.4% Swiss unemployment continues to rise - SWI swissinfo.ch NO new hiring like in many other places...and loads of ex CS folks now coming off payrolls Global Markets Investor on X: "🔴Gold is flooding out of the US at a record pace: US non-monetary gold exports surged to a record $17.1 BILLION in October. This refers to physical bullion shipped for investment, jewelry, and industrial use, not central bank reserves. This marks an unprecedented spike https://t.co/qXKtYQsgAG " / X

USDollar could surprise in short-term (heavy short $ positioning, trade deficit way down and so much pumping into system that inflation is unlikely to head down..) Markets : Supreme court decision on IEEPA tariffs is for today, U.S records lowest trade deficit since 2009 !!..boost USD short-term, with heavy short $ positioning in place..(risk to consider that's for sure..) ... Trump again VERY busy... : wants Freddie & Fannie to buy #200bn of MBS (political pressure extending to asset purchases, not just rates!!...). ., tells Xi that he can what he likes with Taiwan, stated that he doesn't need international law and he will sacrifice NATO for Greenland, might put boots in the ground in Mexico now >>> mortgage bond rally, $11trn of AI capex, Miran wants 150bp FED cuts and defense spending heading to $ 1.tr n >>> inflation ain't likely to go down with all this !!. now US deficit way down could trigger some decent USD buying in short-term Geopolitics : Iraq has decided to take one of the world’s largest oil fields away from Lukoil, the “final nail in the coffin" (yesterday) for Russia’s energy influence in the Middle East: Iraq nationalised Russia's Lukoil oil field, Trump said U.S. forces will begin special operations & land strikes on Mexican soil /attacking Mex cartels) , Russia rejects US President Trump's 20-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine (of course) "Cuba gives protection to Venezuela, and Venezuela gives Cuba money through oil - and it’s worked that way for a long time - but it doesn’t work that way anymore, so I don’t know what Cuba's going to do. I think Cuba's going to fail." October trade deficit narrowed to $29.4B vs. $58.7B est. & $48.1B in prior month, lowest since 2009… imports -3.2%; exports +2.6% - quite extraordinary really, the trade deficit dropped steeply, hitting its lowest level since 2009, could test current USD short positioning in market...beware.. silly things can happen in Jan.. Korean media reported that big tech companies from the US are staying long-term in hotels around Pangyo and Pyeongtaek, desperately "begging" Samsung and SK Hynix for DRAM allocations. The situation is reportedly so dire that industry insiders are even calling them "DRAM Beggars." US records lowest trade deficit since 2009: Trump credits tariffs, calls it 'unprecedented success' – Firstpost Iran protests live updates: Iran cuts internet as crowds join crown prince-led protests Trump Says ‘It’s Up To’ Xi Jinping What China Does In Taiwan - The New York Times ''You run your hemipshere and I run mine''..!!?? Trump says he wants to ban large investors from buying houses | AP News Donald Trump threatens land strikes in Mexico to target cartel action | The Nightly "We are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels. The cartels are running Mexico." Trump wants purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds. What that means for mortgage rates. >>>> they both have been adding bn's of MBS & home loans to their balance sheets— boosting total positions to more than $220bn,t here is a $450 bn cap, so yes they can do another 100bn+ What is the Monroe Doctrine, and how is Trump reasserting it? Rio Tinto and Glencore restart talks over mega-merger that would create the world's largest mining firm Big Tech, which has become a 'DRAM beggar', stays in Pangyo and Pyeongtaek and "shows to pick up volume" Apple executives are 'booking extended hotel stays' in South Korea and the reason is Samsung and SK Hynix - The Times of India T his will be important - either way Trump approves Russian sanctions bill to pressure Moscow over Ukraine war | Fox News The U.S. Senate is advancing a bipartisan sanctions bill aimed at squeezing Russia’s economy to pressure putin to end its war in Ukraine. Trump has “green-lit” the legislation to proceed in Congress, which if/when passed would allow the US to impose very fierce tariffs on nations continuing to trade with Russia, especially by importing its energy exports #URA Call it a Comeback: Nuclear Capacity Poised for Global Growth Huge copper shortage to pose ‘systemic risk’ to global economies, warns S&P AI to boost copper demand 50% by 2040 — S&P - MINING.COM NEXTA on X: "Iraq has decided to take one of the world’s largest oil fields away from Lukoil The Iraqi government will take control of the West Qurna-2 oil field for 12 months, Reuters reports. The field accounts for about 0.5% of global oil production. During this period, the authorities https://t.co/Htf6E4SGGi " / X Mark on X: "⚠️ BUCKLE UP: 2026 GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS FROM A PROFESSOR WHO GOT TRUMP, IRAN, & UKRAINE RIGHT. Professor Jang uses game theory & history to forecast global shifts. His track record is uncanny. Here’s his alarming analysis for 2026. THE GRAND GAME: US vs. CHINA ➡️ The core https://t.co/kNFH8aokhL " / X

Trump had a lot to say last night (housing purchase, Ven, banning sharebuybacks on defence Co's, etc), and Trump just signed a memo, the US is withdrawing from 66 international organisations (31 UN + 35 non-UN) that reportedly no longer serve American interests, show of force though from the special forces, 2 tankers 'taken' pretty easily, Russia got outmuscled, humiliated here (they had submarines there and did nada..), Trump 'greenlights' bipartisan Russia sanctions bill - Senator Graham, and till a LOT going on in Iran currently ! incredible scenes there...this looks like a pretty serious change coming! Markets : ... Financial conditions keep loosening as investors get excited about the potential for both fiscal and monetary stimulus this year. Yields on junk bonds have fallen to the lowest since 2022, despite bankruptcies starting to creep higher (and low VOLs. VIX kept market buoyant lately..), and overall G3 Fiscal Policy Very Expansionary in 2026 (Apollo), China told local tech bro's to stop buying NVDA chips, German industrial orders surprise at +5.6 vs -1% exp, BIS paper on AI boom (debt) worth a read, BIG Oils want U.S govt guarantees before Ven investment (>>capitalism for you, socialism for them..), Job openings dropped to 7.1M in November, undershooting expectations and hiring pace must softer-basically gone down to nothing in the last 6months!! (charts available), precious down on the rebalancing, tested Xmas highs, and back down, time for a welcome consolidation, Trump announced plans to increase U.S. military budget for fiscal year 2027 to $1.5 trillion. An absolutely staggering figure Geopolitics : There’s a good chance Moscow attempted a high-risk weapons transfer to Venezuela to gain leverage in Ukraine negotiations. The US clocked it early. Ship turned round - and got seized. Massive humiliation for Russia, Russia might lose its far east territories to China. The Chinese are now openly discussing "liberating" the region from Russia on social media. In Iran, Reza Pahlavi addresses all members of the Iranian security forces in Persian and calls on them to stand on the right side of history, well well, Danish soldiers ordered to fight back if US invades Greenland, Copenhagen confirms Amazon is eliminating 2,400 jobs in Washington state, a decision tied to a ten-year investment into artificial intelligence technologies >>> There are now 685k more Unemployed Persons than Job Openings in the US. Excluding the 2020 covid recession, this is the widest spread we've seen since 2017. Labor market continues to cool... Palantir cofounder Peter Thiel on tech companies and dividends: “You can’t issue a dividend. The day you take that $30 billion and send it back to people, you’re admitting you’re no longer a tech company.” Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela Danish soldiers ordered to fight back if US invades Greenland, Copenhagen confirms | Euractiv Exactly... DANISH PARLIAMENT MEMBER: “ had 30 bases on Greenland, why did you leave? You can resume that tomorrow without attacking a NATO ally… the rationale lacks factual foundation and doesn’t stand any logic testing.” (Unless the point is to hurt us and end NATO, a Putin/Xi goal) Iran protests enter ninth day as Trump renews intervention threat Trump 'greenlights' bipartisan Russia sanctions bill - Senator Graham US JOLTS Job Openings decline to 7.14 million in November vs. 7.6 million expected A HUGE amounts of under 30yearsold are finding out that getting good paid jobs will be Very tricky to say the least...Society is NOT ready for these consequences...! #AI ! Why Trump wants Greenland and what makes it so important for security European leaders push back over Trump's renewed Greenland interest Trump weighs using U.S. military to acquire Greenland: White House Trump demands defence companies stop buybacks and dividends | Financial Post Trump says he'll ban large investors from buying single-family homes The likes of Blackstone hit immediately The 66 global organizations the US is leaving | AP News Live updates: Minneapolis Public Schools cancels classes for Thursday and Friday Why 2026 Could Be Silver’s Breakout Year: The Asymmetric Bet on Monetary Chaos Ukraine–Russia at a crossroads: How the war evolved in 2025 and what comes next Russia really struggling, 3 day war getting a 4year war, leading to nowhere, and 1.2mio casualties, sanctions biting, black sea fleet dominance gone, 'proxies' quietly backing away Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt Highly recommended, "Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt" by Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, and Daniel Rees. "While macroeconomic and financial stability risks from the AI boom appear moderate, the boom’s sustainability hinges on AI firms meeting high earnings expectations. The fact that equity prices have run far ahead of debt market pricing underscores this tension." G3 Fiscal Policy Very Expansionary in 2026 - Apollo Academy ISM services PMI unexpectedly rises in December Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela Eli Afriat 🇮🇱🎗 on X: "🚨🇮🇷BREAKING: Reza Pahlavi addresses all members of the Iranian security forces in Persian and calls on them to stand on the right side of history. The fall of the regime is a matter of time and therefore they should use their weapons to protect the people and not to harm them. https://t.co/5tRFo38yow " / X 2025: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Good recap of 2025 via charts! The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Trump is going after the US housing market: President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors. Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today. What happens next? Let us explain. (a thread) https://t.co/EgX4qZppVh " / X

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