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Markets : US claims near 3y lows at 191K ( looks wrong.. macro data weaker AND continuing claims are at 3y lows..) , K-shaped downturn, META cutting 10% of workforce , VISA new HQ in Canary Wharf, RBI cuts despite INR on all time lows , UK closer to EU should boost #GBPCHF #GBPUSD from depressed/un-owned levels (see Prof Curtis below) >>> markets running on liquidity alone.. (Thread : Shiller PE 40, monthly repo $100bn, discount window, rate cuts, Hassett incoming etc) Trade : Question: If foreign countries are paying the tariffs, as Trump kept saying, why is Costco joining dozens of other companies demanding millions of dollars in refunds over Trump’s tariffs?... Macron discusses Ukraine, trade with Xi in China, Geopolitics : India’s Narendra Modi welcomed President Vladimir Putin to India, angering the U.S, US says Pentagon review sees opportunities to strengthen AUKUS submarine deal, Putin says there are points he can't agree to in the U.S proposal to end Russia's war in UKR (no surprise there..he just wants to continue the charade..), a UK inquiry finds Putin authorised the chemical weapons attack on British soil in Salisbury in 2018 Over the last 72 hours: 1. Apple's AI Chief steps down 2. Apple's Head of UI Design leaves to Meta 3. Apple's Policy Chief steps down 4. Apple's Head of General Counsel steps down What is happening at Apple? Chinese GPU maker Moore Threads ( 688795.CH ) surging in Shanghai trading debut after raising CNY8B ($1.13B) in second largest onshore IPO for this year on bets company will benefit from China's push for greater tech self-reliance Mexico officially adopting the 40-hour work week —Sheinbaum signs bill phasing out the 48-hour week over 4 years, plus 13% minimum wage hike "Zuckerberg has asked Meta executives to look for 10% cuts across the board , standard request during budget cycles the past few years. The metaverse group was asked to cut deeper given Meta has not seen the level of industry-wide competition over the technology it once expected" Masayoshi Son Hammers Out High-Tech Factories Plan With White House Goldman: If the outlook on AI capex were to change dramatically, a reversion of long-term growth estimates back to early 2023 levels would imply 15-20% downside to the current valuation multiple of the S&P 500 according to GS Research macro valuation model CNN graphic on presidential pardons:totally normal out there ..the amount of utter nonsense, lies, corruption it properly nuts W Bush: 189 Obama: 212 Trump 1: 144 Biden: 80 Trump 2: 1500+ The Big One: The Liquidity Crisis Fueling the AI Stock Bubble Hassett says rate cut likely at next Fed meeting By Investing.com Hardly surprising..! Visa moves European HQ to London’s Canary Wharf | News.az More good news #GBP Putin says US plan to end Ukraine war includes unacceptable proposals | AP News Labor Department reports three-year low in jobless claims - Fast Company US says Pentagon review sees opportunities to strengthen AUKUS submarine deal | The Straits Times RBI delivers 25 BPS repo rate cut: Governor Sanjay Malhotra signals continued easing amid robust growth and low inflation Putin India visit live: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi - BBC News Macron discusses Ukraine, trade with Xi in China – DW – 12/04/2025 THE GREAT NORMALIZATION: JAPAN’S SOVEREIGN DEBT TRANSITION AND THE TWILIGHT OF ZERO-RATE FINANCE SCOOP: There is a last ditch by Wall Street and corporate America insiders to caution Trump, about the selection of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair (yes it would be a bad choice IMHO .. good short-term maybe, but well anticipated, and steeper yield curve later... ) Their argument goes something like this: Given the political nature of his job (NEC chief) and past work, Hassett has lack of credibility inside the Fed with staff and in the markets, which seeks a degree of Fed independence. They’re saying that his appointment sets the stage for higher long term interest rates because 1) The Fed will be a disorganized mess with leader lacking credibility inside 2) If Hassett manages to cut short term rates ( as Trump wants) with divided vote because of sticky inflationary pressures, it will be perceived as political and inflationary. Btw mortgage and consumer rates are priced off the 10 year and if that spikes over inflation fears, it could cause an economic slowdown as the midterms approach. Of course Trump will PROBABLY ignore all of the above but that’s the latest in the Fed race. Other candidates are Kevin Warsh and Fed gov Christopher Waller, both of whom could be fall back choices. Story developing >>>> The Fed would go from “independent guardian of price stability” to a liquidity instrument aligned with the executive branch Mexico Plans Gradual Shift to 40-Hour Workweek by 2030 - teleSUR English Japan October household spending falls at fastest pace in nearly 2 years  | Reuters Crypto Investor Donates £9 Million to Reform UK as Nigel Farage Plugs His Company and Tells Industry 'I Am Your Champion' – Byline Times Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 11 PM ET: Masayoshi Son Hammers Out High-Tech Factories Plan With White House | Top ... | Morningstar Trump may demolish another trade deal he negotiated: USMCA #Brexit failure a fact, get closer to EU will be the path.. #GBPCHF ! Liz Webster on X: "Sir John Curtice has confirmed it: Liz Truss didn’t just wreck the economy 👉her mini-Budget killed the last remaining belief that Brexit would ever deliver growth. Even Leave voters now say Brexit has harmed the UK. And Curtice is blunt: 👉 Labour would gain electorally by https://t.co/mcUFht3u2k " / X Farage accuses BBC of double standards after racism allegations

MSFT : Microsoft lowered AI software sales quota as customers resist new products, Nvidia CFO: We still haven’t completed a definitive agreement with OpenAI for the $100 billion, BoA (below) warning about the $120bn issued by the hyperscalers this year alone, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said there's no way to get a return: "$8 trillion of capex means you need roughly $800 billion of profit just to pay for the interest." >>> this seems like pretty clear warnings? Markets : weak ADP and ISM services cemented the Dec cut and pushed Eq markets higher (weak macro US and risk goes higher, usd softer..) , Bond markets participants warnings over Hassett as Fed Chair, Copper hits fresh record highs, Japan's strongest ever 30y bond auction (after huge bond selloff..), Kushner's trip to Moscow yesterday was not just unethical; it was illegal (Thread) - the amount of corruption, lies & manipulation is totally out of control..., #GBP the UK is going to get closer to EUROPE again, stay long GBP, Brexit failures now clearly being exposed and Labour knows they have to go that way 'closer to EU, not rejoin, but closer', with Swiss inflation flat again #GBPCHF looks a good way to go about it Trade : Xi Jinping tells France's Macron that decoupling means disruption It’s now official: Trump has pardoned one of the world’s most notorious drug traffickers. Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking last year in the U.S. and sentenced to 45 years in prison Bank of America says the AI boom isn't heading for a 2000-style bubble burst, but warns investors should brace for an "air pocket." The five hyperscalers issued $121 billion in debt this year to fund AI infrastructure, four times their average annual debt from the past five years, with another $100 billion expected in 2026 Donald Trump’s allies are considering having Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent take on the additional role of heading the National Economic Council if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, a move that would consolidate Bessent’s oversight of Trump’s economic policies. (BBG) Natural gas prices have  65% in 3 months , with millions of Americans heating with gas facing higher winter bills, brrrrrr! US private payrolls unexpectedly decrease in November, ADP says Switzerland Inflation Rate Scott Bessent may lead National Economic Council alongside Treasury role - Bloomberg By Investing.com Copper Hits Fresh Record on Rising Risk of Tariff-Fueled Squeeze Macron tells Xi that China, France must overcome 'differences' Japan’s Strongest 30-Year Bond Sale Since 2019 Eases BOJ Jitters - Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Says Unsure How Many More Rate Hikes He Will Make - WSJ Blatant corruption Company backed by Donald Trump Jr.’s firm nabs $620M government contract More images of Epstein's private island home released by House Democrats - BBC News How Epstein Infiltrated the Silicon Valley Network Behind Trump’s New Tech Order – Byline Times OPENAI DECLARES ‘CODE RED’ AS GOOGLE CLOSES IN OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly issued a “code red,” telling staff to prioritize major improvements to ChatGPT as rivals like Google and Anthropic gain ground. According to internal memos, OpenAI is pausing projects such as ads, shopping tools, health agents, and its Pulse assistant to focus on faster, more reliable, and more personalized ChatGPT performance. Teams will join daily calls, and employees are encouraged to shift temporarily to speed up the upgrades Michael Burry: Bitcoin's Price Hitting $100,000 Was 'Ridiculous' - Business Insider Nicely summed up the Hassett game plan, pretty fierce ! Common Sense Investor on X: "Positioning for Trump’s New Fed Chair (Kevin Hassett) Why Long Bonds $TLT May Outperform Stocks in a Fast-Cut Cycle! Trump has introduced his new Fed Chair Kevin Hassett- someone known for being pro-growth, pro-liquidity, and openly supportive of lower interest rates. Markets https://t.co/jj1gLqCzdB " / X Trump’s 2025 tariffs to trigger fresh layoffs in 2026 Structured products are way to expensive for end users... (to say the least..) Leonteq fällt. Und fällt. Und fällt. – Inside Paradeplatz Jake Tapper 🦅 on X: "Why did President Trump pardon the former Honduran president, who “helped to facilitate the importation of an almost unfathomable 400 tons of cocaine to this country,” according to prosecutors? https://t.co/HHZH11ksJJ " / X Trump Hit With $310 Million Lawsuit Alleging “Epstein-Identical” Trafficking Network Eklat bei CSS: IT-Chef über Nacht weg – Inside Paradeplatz Judd Legum on X: "1. Kushner's trip to Moscow yesterday was not just unethical; it was illegal. You cannot accept millions from foreign governments and simultaneously conduct diplomacy for the U.S. It's right in the Constitution. https://t.co/bNHGVi9ZxU " / X

In today's NATO meeting in Brussels, the U.S seat will be empty, Rubio is in Moskow, he is skipping the summit. First time in over two decades a U.S. Secretary of State has refused to attend, Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the Kremlin said, though they failed to agree on a plan to end Russia’s war. Earlier, Putin warned Moscow may retaliate against ships from nations aiding Ukraine if attacks on Russian tankers continue Markets : a theme we talked about many times - ALTIMETER'S GERSTNER ON BITCOIN-Thread, markets love FED cut optimism (all priced-ion..), Boeing had a good day and techs, BTC stabilized and rallied back to 90K, Costco is suing Trump to avoid getting stuck with the tab on tariffs (the start of many lawsuits - will set trend), Trump Sees Fed Chair Pick ‘Early Next Year,’ Praises Hassett, World Economy Surprisingly Resilient to Tariffs, OECD Says , Oz Q3 GDP stronger, SILVER squeeze continues, On December 2, 2025, Sam Altman declared “Code Red” at OpenAI (Thread) Trade : Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’ Geopolitics : Trump signs bill mandating reviews of Taiwan engagement limits, China sends a clear warning to Washington regarding Venezuela , A new Irish militant group calling itself the "New Republican Movement" has announced its formation IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data center, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest”.... infinite need/demand for GPU's is clearly at risk.. The Real Game Behind the Juan Hernández Pardon: Power, Pressure, and the New Monroe Doctrine/Thread It will be a 'shock' for markets if it isn't Hassett Trump Sees Fed Chair Pick ‘Early Next Year,’ Praises Hassett "No Way" All AI Companies Can Get A Return On Their Investments In Datacenters: IBM CEO ‘Taking the gloves off’: Trump just held the Cabinet meeting from Hell | The Independent World economy shows surprising tariff resilience: OECD | Financial Post Australia's third-quarter GDP expands at fastest pace in about 2 years Silver Squeeze: Supply Crisis & Market Mechanics 2025 Ole S Hansen on X: "#Commodities Silver rose to a fresh record near USD 59, supported by a tight supply outlook, continued momentum buying and short covering following last Friday’s breakout above USD 54.50. The gold-silver ratio has slipped below 73, a level that has repeatedly offered support" / X Bitcoin bounces back above $90,000, but market sentiment remains cautious - Cryptocurrency News | The Financial Express OpenAI's ChatGPT suffers outage for some users Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "BREAKING: The First AI Era Just Ended On December 2, 2025, Sam Altman declared “Code Red” at OpenAI. This is not a competitive setback. This is a phase transition. The numbers tell a story no one wants to hear: OpenAI has committed $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spending. https://t.co/zjigE9yFM5 " / X Dell family to donate $6 billion to 'Trump accounts' of 25 million US children | Reuters UK delays decision for third time on China's plan for Europe's largest embassy | Reuters Investigation after video shows masked men saying NI politicians are ‘legitimate targets’ – The Irish Times Ukraine live: Trump envoys fail to secure peace deal with Putin Putin warns Europe: if you want war, then Russia will defeat you. President Vladimir Putin warned European powers on Tuesday that if they started a war with Russia then Moscow was ready to fight and that the defeat of European powers would be so absolute that there would be no one left to even negotiate a peace deal. The AI frenzy is driving a memory chip supply crisis | News.az An acute global shortage of memory chips is forcing artificial intelligence and consumer-electronics companies to fight for dwindling supplies, as prices soar for the unglamorous but essential components that allow devices to store data. Japanese electronics stores have begun limiting how many hard-disk drives shoppers can buy. Chinese smartphone makers are warning of price increases China Issues Warning as U.S. Carrier Enters 1.38M-Sq-Mile Disputed Zone Google CEO Sundar Pichai says data centers in space are coming Is it fair to charge foreigners more to enter tourist sites? | The Independent Some stats! The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is historic: The Magnificent 7 stocks have rallied +300% since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. This is more than 4 TIMES the S&P 500’s +72% return. The Nasdaq 100 has risen +120% during this period. Furthermore, the Magnificent 7 have even outperformed silver https://t.co/MSIvocokSq " / X *Walter Bloomberg on X: "ALTIMETER'S GERSTNER ON BITCOIN Gerstner said he doesn’t understand MicroStrategy’s strategy, and repeated confusion is a red flag for him. He owns some Bitcoin and may buy more if prices fall, but he’s watching to see whether MicroStrategy might be forced to deleverage, which https://t.co/AtW0KY1DHV " / X

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