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USDollar could surprise in short-term (heavy short $ positioning, trade deficit way down and so much pumping into system that inflation is unlikely to head down..) Markets : Supreme court decision on IEEPA tariffs is for today, U.S records lowest trade deficit since 2009 !!..boost USD short-term, with heavy short $ positioning in place..(risk to consider that's for sure..) ... Trump again VERY busy... : wants Freddie & Fannie to buy #200bn of MBS (political pressure extending to asset purchases, not just rates!!...). ., tells Xi that he can what he likes with Taiwan, stated that he doesn't need international law and he will sacrifice NATO for Greenland, might put boots in the ground in Mexico now >>> mortgage bond rally, $11trn of AI capex, Miran wants 150bp FED cuts and defense spending heading to $ 1.tr n >>> inflation ain't likely to go down with all this !!. now US deficit way down could trigger some decent USD buying in short-term Geopolitics : Iraq has decided to take one of the world’s largest oil fields away from Lukoil, the “final nail in the coffin" (yesterday) for Russia’s energy influence in the Middle East: Iraq nationalised Russia's Lukoil oil field, Trump said U.S. forces will begin special operations & land strikes on Mexican soil /attacking Mex cartels) , Russia rejects US President Trump's 20-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine (of course) "Cuba gives protection to Venezuela, and Venezuela gives Cuba money through oil - and it’s worked that way for a long time - but it doesn’t work that way anymore, so I don’t know what Cuba's going to do. I think Cuba's going to fail." October trade deficit narrowed to $29.4B vs. $58.7B est. & $48.1B in prior month, lowest since 2009… imports -3.2%; exports +2.6% - quite extraordinary really, the trade deficit dropped steeply, hitting its lowest level since 2009, could test current USD short positioning in market...beware.. silly things can happen in Jan.. Korean media reported that big tech companies from the US are staying long-term in hotels around Pangyo and Pyeongtaek, desperately "begging" Samsung and SK Hynix for DRAM allocations. The situation is reportedly so dire that industry insiders are even calling them "DRAM Beggars." US records lowest trade deficit since 2009: Trump credits tariffs, calls it 'unprecedented success' – Firstpost Iran protests live updates: Iran cuts internet as crowds join crown prince-led protests Trump Says ‘It’s Up To’ Xi Jinping What China Does In Taiwan - The New York Times ''You run your hemipshere and I run mine''..!!?? Trump says he wants to ban large investors from buying houses | AP News Donald Trump threatens land strikes in Mexico to target cartel action | The Nightly "We are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels. The cartels are running Mexico." Trump wants purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds. What that means for mortgage rates. >>>> they both have been adding bn's of MBS & home loans to their balance sheets— boosting total positions to more than $220bn,t here is a $450 bn cap, so yes they can do another 100bn+ What is the Monroe Doctrine, and how is Trump reasserting it? Rio Tinto and Glencore restart talks over mega-merger that would create the world's largest mining firm Big Tech, which has become a 'DRAM beggar', stays in Pangyo and Pyeongtaek and "shows to pick up volume" Apple executives are 'booking extended hotel stays' in South Korea and the reason is Samsung and SK Hynix - The Times of India T his will be important - either way Trump approves Russian sanctions bill to pressure Moscow over Ukraine war | Fox News The U.S. Senate is advancing a bipartisan sanctions bill aimed at squeezing Russia’s economy to pressure putin to end its war in Ukraine. Trump has “green-lit” the legislation to proceed in Congress, which if/when passed would allow the US to impose very fierce tariffs on nations continuing to trade with Russia, especially by importing its energy exports #URA Call it a Comeback: Nuclear Capacity Poised for Global Growth Huge copper shortage to pose ‘systemic risk’ to global economies, warns S&P AI to boost copper demand 50% by 2040 — S&P - MINING.COM NEXTA on X: "Iraq has decided to take one of the world’s largest oil fields away from Lukoil The Iraqi government will take control of the West Qurna-2 oil field for 12 months, Reuters reports. The field accounts for about 0.5% of global oil production. During this period, the authorities https://t.co/Htf6E4SGGi " / X Mark on X: "⚠️ BUCKLE UP: 2026 GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS FROM A PROFESSOR WHO GOT TRUMP, IRAN, & UKRAINE RIGHT. Professor Jang uses game theory & history to forecast global shifts. His track record is uncanny. Here’s his alarming analysis for 2026. THE GRAND GAME: US vs. CHINA ➡️ The core https://t.co/kNFH8aokhL " / X

Trump had a lot to say last night (housing purchase, Ven, banning sharebuybacks on defence Co's, etc), and Trump just signed a memo, the US is withdrawing from 66 international organisations (31 UN + 35 non-UN) that reportedly no longer serve American interests, show of force though from the special forces, 2 tankers 'taken' pretty easily, Russia got outmuscled, humiliated here (they had submarines there and did nada..), Trump 'greenlights' bipartisan Russia sanctions bill - Senator Graham, and till a LOT going on in Iran currently ! incredible scenes there...this looks like a pretty serious change coming! Markets : ... Financial conditions keep loosening as investors get excited about the potential for both fiscal and monetary stimulus this year. Yields on junk bonds have fallen to the lowest since 2022, despite bankruptcies starting to creep higher (and low VOLs. VIX kept market buoyant lately..), and overall G3 Fiscal Policy Very Expansionary in 2026 (Apollo), China told local tech bro's to stop buying NVDA chips, German industrial orders surprise at +5.6 vs -1% exp, BIS paper on AI boom (debt) worth a read, BIG Oils want U.S govt guarantees before Ven investment (>>capitalism for you, socialism for them..), Job openings dropped to 7.1M in November, undershooting expectations and hiring pace must softer-basically gone down to nothing in the last 6months!! (charts available), precious down on the rebalancing, tested Xmas highs, and back down, time for a welcome consolidation, Trump announced plans to increase U.S. military budget for fiscal year 2027 to $1.5 trillion. An absolutely staggering figure Geopolitics : There’s a good chance Moscow attempted a high-risk weapons transfer to Venezuela to gain leverage in Ukraine negotiations. The US clocked it early. Ship turned round - and got seized. Massive humiliation for Russia, Russia might lose its far east territories to China. The Chinese are now openly discussing "liberating" the region from Russia on social media. In Iran, Reza Pahlavi addresses all members of the Iranian security forces in Persian and calls on them to stand on the right side of history, well well, Danish soldiers ordered to fight back if US invades Greenland, Copenhagen confirms Amazon is eliminating 2,400 jobs in Washington state, a decision tied to a ten-year investment into artificial intelligence technologies >>> There are now 685k more Unemployed Persons than Job Openings in the US. Excluding the 2020 covid recession, this is the widest spread we've seen since 2017. Labor market continues to cool... Palantir cofounder Peter Thiel on tech companies and dividends: “You can’t issue a dividend. The day you take that $30 billion and send it back to people, you’re admitting you’re no longer a tech company.” Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela Danish soldiers ordered to fight back if US invades Greenland, Copenhagen confirms | Euractiv Exactly... DANISH PARLIAMENT MEMBER: “ had 30 bases on Greenland, why did you leave? You can resume that tomorrow without attacking a NATO ally… the rationale lacks factual foundation and doesn’t stand any logic testing.” (Unless the point is to hurt us and end NATO, a Putin/Xi goal) Iran protests enter ninth day as Trump renews intervention threat Trump 'greenlights' bipartisan Russia sanctions bill - Senator Graham US JOLTS Job Openings decline to 7.14 million in November vs. 7.6 million expected A HUGE amounts of under 30yearsold are finding out that getting good paid jobs will be Very tricky to say the least...Society is NOT ready for these consequences...! #AI ! Why Trump wants Greenland and what makes it so important for security European leaders push back over Trump's renewed Greenland interest Trump weighs using U.S. military to acquire Greenland: White House Trump demands defence companies stop buybacks and dividends | Financial Post Trump says he'll ban large investors from buying single-family homes The likes of Blackstone hit immediately The 66 global organizations the US is leaving | AP News Live updates: Minneapolis Public Schools cancels classes for Thursday and Friday Why 2026 Could Be Silver’s Breakout Year: The Asymmetric Bet on Monetary Chaos Ukraine–Russia at a crossroads: How the war evolved in 2025 and what comes next Russia really struggling, 3 day war getting a 4year war, leading to nowhere, and 1.2mio casualties, sanctions biting, black sea fleet dominance gone, 'proxies' quietly backing away Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt Highly recommended, "Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt" by Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, and Daniel Rees. "While macroeconomic and financial stability risks from the AI boom appear moderate, the boom’s sustainability hinges on AI firms meeting high earnings expectations. The fact that equity prices have run far ahead of debt market pricing underscores this tension." G3 Fiscal Policy Very Expansionary in 2026 - Apollo Academy ISM services PMI unexpectedly rises in December Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela Eli Afriat 🇮🇱🎗 on X: "🚨🇮🇷BREAKING: Reza Pahlavi addresses all members of the Iranian security forces in Persian and calls on them to stand on the right side of history. The fall of the regime is a matter of time and therefore they should use their weapons to protect the people and not to harm them. https://t.co/5tRFo38yow " / X 2025: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Good recap of 2025 via charts! The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Trump is going after the US housing market: President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors. Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today. What happens next? Let us explain. (a thread) https://t.co/EgX4qZppVh " / X

Russia has deployed a submarine and multiple naval assets into the North Atlantic to shield the tanker Marinera (pic is not ''it'', but its similar..) from a potential U.S. seizure (what the hell is on it..) & many Iranian and Arab sources report that the United States is preparing to launch large-scale air strikes against Iran, in which Israel would also take part, many reports of big U.S air force taking off from U.S and bases in UK, heading to Middle East Markets : #JGB 30y yields 3.5% (highest in history), Trump say 'Yes', but Big Oil companies say NO, they were NOT consulted on Venezuela investments, US Supreme Court could issue key Trump tariff ruling on Friday, SILVER back to the highs, debasement trade continues as expected, equity markets fuelled by early 2026 liquidities pumped in.. metals tested 'Christmas highs' again, geopolitical risk on the INCREASE all over the globe, markets for now a big 'meehhh' LOTS going in Geopolitics : India's largest importer has abandoned Russian oil (this could be BIG news) , Donald Trump has agreed to both deter attacks by Russia and - if it comes to it - defend Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi:  "Challenges to the international order are becoming increasingly severe."  "In the Indo-Pacific region, we see a further increase in military forces from China and North Korea, as well as strengthened cooperation between China and Russia and between Russia and North Korea.", China bans export of dual-use items for military purposes to Japan over Taiwan remarks Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe. We agree: Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO. Security in the Arctic must be achieved collectively: in conjunction with Allies including the United States. Greenland belongs to its people. Quelle surprise !... The majority of British people want to ditch the failed brexit project and rejoin the EU Do tariffs boost inflation? A SF Fed paper suggests the answer is no because they produce a bigger downward hit to growth by raising uncertainty and crimping consumer and business demand US Supreme Court could issue key Trump tariff ruling on Friday China bans export of dual-use items for military purposes to Japan over Taiwan remarks | The Straits Times Protest-hit Iran warily watches the US after its raid on Venezuela UK confirms Raven and Gravehawk air defence to Ukraine Empty oil tanker Bella 1 sparks naval face-off between US, Russia The saga of the Bella 1 and the mysterious US Special Forces movements American anti submarine P-8 Poseidon aircraft are flying operations off the west coast of Britain attempting to search for the Russian submarine detached to protect the infamous sanctioned Bella tanker ....Russia is desperately trying to stop the US boarding the Bella 1 tanker....why one wonders.. Defence Index on X: "👀 KEEP EYES ON THE ATLANTIC | A U.S. RUSSIA NAVAL STANDOFF IS UNFOLDING The focus is on the sanctioned oil tanker Bella-1, a vessel linked to Iranian interests and now sailing under a Russian flag, as it attempts to cross the North Atlantic toward Russian waters. The United https://t.co/wn04TXA0ub " / X Trump demands Venezuela kick out China and Russia, partner only with US on oil: EXCLUSIVE - ABC News Big Oil doesn’t share Trump’s dream of making Venezuelan oil great again | CNN Business Almost no rigs are operating in Venezuela as it’s been nearly impossible to bring on additional capacity given Venezuela’s infrastructure issues; if you can’t get product to market, it doesn’t really matter if you have it; there is simply no way of reliably getting it to market..! Even Trafigura is careful about going into Venezuela, need legal framework first.. Trafigura to Discuss Venezuela With US India's biggest importer halts Russian oil purchases, Reuters says | RBC-Ukraine Russian rude trading below 40$ - this must hurt Ukraine war live: UK and France will send troops in event of peace Trump won't rule out military force to acquire Greenland: White House | World News - Business Standard Argentina’s FDI Turns Negative for First Time in 22 Years - The Financial Analyst Milei has looted the gold, flogged state assets to offshore private equity (Trump cronies no doubt)...locals now poorer, and capital fleeing out...not good ! Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer - WSJ #BREXIT failure - the facts What's behind Starmer's notable shift on closer ties to Europe? OSINTdefender on X: "The U.S. Department of Justice says it has reviewed “less than 1%” of the Epstein Files in preparation for release, with only 12,285 documents having been released of more than 2,000,000. This is despite the date the Justice Department was required to release all the files under https://t.co/vmJSK5Gw0N " / X

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