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FOMC : Divided Fed holds rates: the central bank left rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote, but chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move, leaving markets guessing and sending yields on 30-year US Treasuries to 5.2%, their highest since 2007, He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." >>> AND that is what they wanted, cut forward guidance, bring in a more 2waqy risk for markets, give less of 'one way bet' for market specs... make sense ! the supply of bonds, durations form govt, AND hyper scalers IS an issue which wasn't priced...>>> The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and "market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." America tried to choke off China’s chip access, but instead pushed China to innovate faster. The result is cheaper, more efficient AI, and China may have gained the edge through necessity rather than brute force If Nvidia is so rich why has its credit costs (5y $ CDS) exploded in the past months? GAAP net income of $45.5bn in Q1 and yet? More like 'Mind the Gap!' Markets : The other Korean index, the KOSDAQ, is nearly back to April 2025 lows!..(60% round trip..), Microsoft and Meta split investors, U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2, South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, in FX land CHF continues to grind lower, as expected, not a whole lot happening on USD side, though slightly softer yesterday as long-end sol doff hard! let's hope this doesn't go the way of JPY and JGB's... US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap so KOSPI down 33% this month... More than 360,000 margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi. 62% of those wiped out were reportedly under the age of 35 Nick Timiraos on X: "Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42" / X The bond market says ''Warsh has lost it, he is nuts' no guidance etc >>> let's just hope USD and UST don't go the way of JPY and JGB's... clearly...if he looses #duration and the long-end it is going to be a biblical mess !...markets can move very quickly these days.... On the other hand, rightly or wrongly Warsh warned of no forward guidance, so it HAS/HD to mean more of a 2way risk and thus higher VOL... At the end of the day he was Trump's choice, chosen by Bessent, and it's backfiring... Greg Yip : This Warsh contradiction has been nagging at me. At Sintra at the start of the month, he took comfort at the recent decline in bond yields, implying bond markets understood low inflation was on the way. Today, he took comfort at higher bond yields, saying they will deliver low inflation. How can this be: that lower bond yields are reasons to feel good about inflation, but higher bond yields are not a reason to feel bad about it? Without him articulating a monetary and economic framework, these statements make it feel like he's winging it. Jim Bianco on X: "The Warsh press conferences aren't going to work in their current form, and it isn't because he's dodging. The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and" / X Trump’s Tariffs Are Sending Some Companies Back to China - The New York Times Drone hits US gas storage tanker at Egypt's Damietta Mediterranean port | The Jerusalem Post Trump: U.S. will hit Iran hard after surprise attack Consumers, AI spending likely supported US economic growth in the second quarter | Reuters Barchart on X: "South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, on track for its worst month in history, surpassing the October 1997 IMF Crisis (-27%) and the October 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-23%) 📉 📉 https://t.co/CqyoIOAXc0" / X It’s great news for holders of Greggs shares Blurred Orbits: Inside China’s Commercial Space Expansion DoorDash launches in-house drone delivery program after FAA certification | Reuters Got to love progress but this is so stupid EXCLUSIVE: US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap | Reuters

Chipmaker valuations are now higher than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. AI may be revolutionary, but the price you pay still matters (chart available on request) Prices for credit default swaps for corporate debt tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nividia have risen to record highs in recent days according to LSEG data (FT) Iran updates : The U.S.-Iran war-cease-fire-MoU-war-again-de-facto-ceasefire has gone on now for 150 days...Brent fell below $88 after Donald Trump said US and Iran are engaged in talks, Markets : Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge (chips & KOSPI sharply down overnight again, Nvidia has signed leases worth up to $50B for a massive Texas data centre, a previously undisclosed commitment, #US IMM Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade >>> momentum change, CTA's turning sellers!, QQQ struggling, chips rout could well continue (see valuations levels..), KOSPI giving back its crazy up moves from Q2 (what else..), watch yields after Warsh in his 2nd FOMC meeting, long-end7duration/credit etc.. GOLD : BoA's fund manager survey : for the first time in years, fund managers see Gold as undervalued, Most institutional investors still do not hold a strategic long-term allocation to gold.. (chart available on request) The 30-Year US Treasury Yield ended last week at 5.17%, its highest weekly close since July 2007, on to Mr Warsh tomorrow to try to convince the market that 'inflation is low'.. Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge Nvidia behind $50B lease on Texas data centre that will use its chips: FT Taiwan Detains Nvidia Employee in Chip Trafficking Probe | Hyperdash News The Next Fed Rate Hike May Be Coming Soon | Seeking Alpha Kevin Warsh’s First Two Months as Fed Chair: What He Changed, and What Could Happen Next - WSJ Trump uses GM stage to launch midterms attack on Democrats | Reuters Wie viele entlässt UBS in nächster Welle? – Inside Paradeplatz Barchart on X: "Tesla $TSLA falls to its most oversold level since March 2025 📉 📉 https://t.co/TyujjSxMct" / X Barchart on X: "CTAs will dump stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week 📉 📉 https://t.co/3OGJwHR9t3" / X Barchart on X: "Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade 📈 💵 🤑 https://t.co/jrZG2bryru" / X Gold Outlook: A healthy reset provides a constructive backdrop – The Armchair Trader

Horrific wild fires in France, Spain, Portugal, UK, Sicily and Canada Last Thursday recorded the most commercial flights 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 in one day 153,359 worldwide over 24hrs on Flightradar24, the world's largest public flight-tracking network..... Iran updates : a pause in US-Iran fighting cut the geopolitical risk premium, with Brent sliding around 4-5% towards $92 a barrel as Iran signalled it would halt attacks provided Washington did the same, though the Strait of Hormuz remained contested and Houthi strikes on Saudi installations continued Markets : a lot going this week, possibly a KEY week ahead - major test for markets and sentiment for Q3 (thread), FOMC on Wed (most likely unchanged, about 10bps priced in for a hike), big Techs reporting (MSFT, META, AMZN and APPLE), UST yields a tad softer again going into month-end with 10's 4.63%, SMI also testing new highs, Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumps over 470% in market debut, UBS 'USDCHF' scandal about to get bigger, SpaceX unloved, Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio (private eq tapped out?) Bonds have been in a 6-year long bear market, with long-term treasuries seeing capital losses of -50% off the peak. Even after factoring in interest received and reinvested (but also adjusting for CPI), those who invested in TLT 20 years ago would be flat-to-negative on their investment. UBS Dollar scandal much larger than expected, the cat is out of the bag! UBS-Dollar-Skandal viel grösser als vermutet – Inside Paradeplatz always trying to keep things under the hood...maybe not this time Nic on X: "This week is the most important for markets this year. Here's what's coming & why they matter: Tuesday: - Microsoft earnings: Azure growth + FY2027 capex. If capex exceeds $200B, expect a selloff - just like Alphabet. - Meta earnings: After Zuckerberg said AI agents are" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio. Details include: 1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio 2. In total, the project could cost more than" / X Probably a sign private equity is at least partly tapped out, NVDA has to fund their own bubble.. Morgan Stanley Flags SpaceX Valuation Gap | SPCX - TheStreet HSBC starts SpaceX stock at hold with $115 price target - TheStreet Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumps over 470% in market debut Indonesia bank chief quits, adding uncertainty to struggling economy Singapore tightens monetary policy in surprise move as rising oil prices rekindle inflation risk Kazakhstan Oil Output Falls 21% as CPC Halt More Than Halves Tengiz Production - The Times Of Central Asia Swiss petition calls for six months’ maternity leave - SWI swissinfo.ch Andy Burnham warns NHS will collapse without social care reforms Andy Burnham suggests stricter benefit conditions to cut welfare bill | The Independent Shocking, horrific wild fires Bordeaux Airport evacuates hotel zone as fires move close - Live UK preparing for wildfires similar to France and Spain, minister says US Republicans accuse Canada of wildfire inaction Southern Europe wildfires kill 3 firefighters, force thousands to flee Scotland, Spain and Canada grapple with wildfires | Reuters

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