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Iran war update : just ahead of tonight's deadline.. .massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack, President Trump reasserted his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to reopen the vital oil shipping lane or the country will  face bombardment  of its infrastructure (thing is Iran is negotiating with RoW not with the U.S...).., “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said during a news conference (WSJ, FT), open the strait or we will seize the oil, there was a lot of nonsense spoken over the Easter weekend.. The Iran war just broke the petrodollar. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold than US government bonds . The war is making this look like a signal, all French gold reserves are now held in Paris . French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves (a little fishy..), Kuwait was forced to shut down the desalination plants that provide 90 percent of its drinking water (horrendous way to fight a war..) , Qatar begins US Troop withdrawal ..! let that sink in.., Al Jazeera confirms regional powers like Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are completely bypassing Washington to mediate peace with Iran... >>> what next then ? ... huge escalation, ground troops etc, and/or accept Iran's leverage..(holding the strait of Hormuz is bigger than nuclear.. as it impacts global finance and hits the U.S and its allies most..)...>>> something like this... Iran gets permanent leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and in return: uranium enrichment stops, missiles capped at the current 2000km range etc Markets : U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% (Ugly downgrade..), Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly, nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages >>> overall choppy rangy, we could have a massive escalation and/or some sort of ceasefire, take your pick, we've rallied on hope and short-covering, Crude is and will be the tell, currently still trading near $115 WTI... Private credit, in short: $1.8trn in assets nobody can price, in funds nobody can exit, on borrowers nobody stress-tested; default rates at records. Jamie Dimon says losses are already too high. Warning signs get louder and louder, pay attention!... Welfare spending has overtaken tax revenue for the first time in UK history. The Treasury raised £331bn in income tax last year, while the state spent £333bn on welfare... this cannot continue, of the IMG will be asked to come and visit the UK soon.. PIMCO : '' US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” Michael Saylor’s Strategy registered a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in the first quarter for their failed Bitcoin gamble #MSTR The Iran war just broke the petrodollar - The Business Times Massive fire erupts in Saudi industrial hub Al Jubail after Iranian drone attack | Watch – Firstpost Kuwait Power, Water Desalination Plants Damaged by Iranian Attack The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4." / X Seems more reasonable..!? Why JPMorgan is warning Tesla stock may crash 60% JPMorganChase Publishes 2025 Annual Report, Including Chairman & CEO Letter to Shareholders " The industry has not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen." The cockroaches are still there. They've just been breeding. EndGame Macro on X: "Jamie Dimon Is Warning About More Than Private Credit Losses Jamie Dimon is not arguing that private credit is about to become the next instant banking collapse. He is saying something more uncomfortable. The industry was built during a regime of cheap money, forgiving https://t.co/Fdylf0Us15 " / X Blue Owl Capital (OWL) One-Off $317M Loss Drives Margin Miss, Undercutting Bullish Growth Narratives Barings caps redemptions at private credit fund after investor withdrawals By Investing.com Guess who owns 20% of shares in this fund? Yes, another private credit fund: Cliffwater's Corporate Lending Fund (CCLFX) -- $921M as of Q3'25. French central bank nets €13bn by pulling gold out of US reserves - RFI Swiss economic outlook deteriorates significantly - SWI swissinfo.ch Qatar Begins US Troop Withdrawal – DID PRESS AGENCY George Noble on X: "Meet Marc Lipschultz. The man who got paid $23.9 million last year to tell you everything was "fine." On February 5, he sat on Blue Owl's earnings call and said: "We don't have red flags. In point of fact, we don't have yellow flags. We have largely green flags. The tech https://t.co/jgxQiy2NLy " / X (1) The Last Molecule Standing - Shanaka Anslem Perera In 1974, Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia: price your oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and America guarantees your security. The arrangement was never a formal treaty. It was a handshake backed by aircraft carriers. For fifty years, every barrel of oil sold anywhere on earth created demand for the dollar that financed America’s debt. The system required two things to function: Gulf oil priced in dollars, and an American navy guaranteeing the strait through which that oil flowed. Both conditions held until February 28, 2026 Jordan on X: "🚨 US DATA CENTER BUILDOUT HITTING A MAJOR BOTTLENECK Nearly half of planned US data centers are now being delayed or cancelled due to power shortages. Companies like Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Google and OpenAI have committed over $600B to AI infrastructure this year. Critical https://t.co/31x88mYM7S " / X Physics & Astronomy Zone on X: "The highest quality video of the moon was just released… this is so beautiful. https://t.co/0JLkB0tOXv " / X

20minutes of rambling.. Trump framed his speech as “mission nearly complete.” , hard to tell !!...no exit from NATO (as some were expecting), then Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘extremely hard’ in coming weeks while telling allies they would have to “take the lead” in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, JD Vance was dispatched to deliver an ultimatum to Tehran to make a deal or face attacks on key infrastructure, Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined Hormuz coalition.. Markets: Swiss CPI at 0.2% vs 0.5% expected… big surprise (#CHF weaker, already had a decent monthly fix weaker..) , China claims the U.S has 2months worth of #RARE earth left, 10y JGB yields higher after a frugly auction (war, inflation and the most indebted country in the 'developed' world, KKR limited redemptions in its non-traded private credit retail fund >>> markets learning to 'fade' Trump's daily rants..., crude at $105 or higher isn't welcome for global economy, clearly, but fertilizer, rare earth 'issues' going forward are also a big worry... Oracle cuts 30,000 jobs, cutting workers to fund AI data centers, total of nearly 100 U.S companies have cut 330,000+ , that's 3,900 per day, at the end of Q1..and AI related companies said that Ai will not cost jobs... Keir Starmer says he will form a new partnership with the EU in the coming weeks "As the world continues down this volatile path, our long-term national interest requires closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union" >>>> '' The British ''right'' made a huge bet on the U.S alliance holding together when they 'took' UK out of the EU, Trump has now blown up the American alliance and so the UK may well have ZERO other choice but to head back to Europe'' Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great (for who exactly..).. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... i'd be very suspicious.. better ways to make a return out there !! UK bond markets are dangerously exposed New 10-Year JGB Coupon Set at 28-Year High of 2.4 Pct Secret codes and yuan fees get ships through Iran’s Hormuz tollbooth - The Japan Times Iran, Israel-US war LIVE updates: Iran responds to Trump's address with attack on Israel, US vows to ‘finish job' - World News | The Financial Express Chinese Publication Claims U.S. Has Two Months of Rare Earths Left | OilPrice.com Artemis II: NASA’s First Crewed Lunar Flyby in 50 Years - NASA Pretty extraordinary stuff.... >>>> 0-15,000 mp/h in 7 1/2 mins! NASA on X: "We're going around the Moon. Come watch with us. Artemis II's four-astronaut crew is lifting off from @NASAKennedy on an approximately 10-day mission that will bring us closer to living on the Moon and Mars. The launch window opens at 6:24pm ET (2224 UTC). https://t.co/X27QJejNDt " / X KKR caps redemptions in retail credit fund amid outflows - Bloomberg By Investing.com BofA Sends Alarming Message on Microsoft, Oracle and CoreWeave US set to roll out tiered tariffs on steel, aluminum imports Samuel Hughes on X: "For some years, Berkeley has been the last major housebuilder pushing ahead in London. They are now closing their pipeline of projects. Projects take years to come through the pipeline, so this suggests that London's housing collapse may be even deeper by the end of this https://t.co/LiQKydKu1Y " / X George Noble on X: "$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create https://t.co/btj457rjKd " / X Trump toilet bowl sketch wins Swiss cartoon award - SWI swissinfo.ch I mean... The Intellectualist on X: "“On Palm Sunday, Jesus entered Jerusalem as crowds welcomed him with praise honoring him as king. They call me king now. Can you believe it?” - President Trump compares himself to Jesus Christ, the Christian Messiah, days before the Easter holiday. (2026) https://t.co/3wke4sXlov " / X

Semiconductor Manufacturing - without Helium from Qatar? not so fast... - Iran war update, fast moving : Trump Says U.S. Will Be Leaving Iran in 2-3 Weeks. The president says U.S. has eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat and ‘it will take 15-20 years' to rebuild, U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight. The Gulf state has begun a campaign to persuade the U.S. and allies in Europe and Asia to open the waterway by any means necessary. (WSJ) Markets : Trump seems to sort of signal a TACO within 2-3weeks, job done apparently.. (all very vague...! and it takes TWO to TACO..), crude, usd, equity react accordingly (already got a positive kick into oversold monthly close..), KOSPI up 8% (total casino), Japan business mood hits 4-Year high, MSCI upgrades Greece >>> crude swiftly down 5% or so on the headlines, USD and equity react accordingly, the 5% short covering rally done literally within 24-48hours.. in QQQ, quite amazing really..today's markets, algo's pretty wild, many issues will remain in the global economy, so let's be prudent with big macro view change, calls.. not going to happen so easily.. and Trump may yet change his mind.. Blue Owl Capital Closes New Asset-Backed Fund With $2.9 Billion in Total Commitments- The Asset Special Opportunities Fund IX exceeded an original target of $2.5 billion, suggesting that there remains an appetite from some investors to continue putting money into private credit. (WSJ) Non-Cash-Generating Private-Credit Loans Rise to a 14-Year Peak, Fitch Say Blackstone, Ares, Rivals Grilled by Congress Over Private Credit, KPMG Faces Allegations of Blown Audit in Private Credit Collapse https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7444738951782817792/?originTrackingId=22dtXezm9ukOKrbU2gCNbg%3D%3D Trump to give "important update on Iran" tonight in prime-time speech - CBS News Trump says he expects US to leave Iran in ‘2 or 3 weeks’ - POLITICO Trump says the US is 'leaving soon' and has 'nothing to do' with the Strait. He started a war, lost it, closed the Strait, and now he's pretending it was never his problem. This is what failure looks like Blackstone, Ares, rivals grilled by Congress over private credit KPMG Faces Audit Failure Allegations Over Bridging Finance Funds - Bloomberg Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute humiliation for the White House. CNN's top journalist Christiane Amanpour confirms Russia just completely shattered the US naval blockade on Cuba. Putin sent a massive oil tanker right through America's backyard and Trump did absolutely nothing. https://t.co/zLLvGhv8cj " / X Exclusive | Non-Cash-Generating Private-Credit Loans Rise to a 14-Year Peak, Fitch Says - WSJ MSCI upgrades Athens Stock Exchange to developed market status from 2027 Greek City Times Swiss banks prepare for Gulf clients - SWI swissinfo.ch PeerMetals on X: "Insiders buying $900 silver calls for December 2026. Silver's at $70 right now. That's a 12x move in 9 months. They're not gambling that big on a guess. https://t.co/kspZtjujnh " / X Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up their currency & economies. https://t.co/aUK7HQ8cuP https://t.co/4J2qNgJ2zN " / X Anthropic accidentally releases source code for its popular Claude AI agent | World News - Business Standard Oracle cutting thousands in latest layoff round as AI spending booms Reeves summons supermarket bosses again after snub Germany nuclear power rethink: gas dependence and energy shock fears | Luxembourg Times Japan Business Mood Hits 4-Year High, Keeps BOJ Rate-Hike View Alive - The Japan News Iran war's impact is spreading beyond oil, hitting helium and aluminum

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