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''' "Who knows better about surprise than Japan?" Trump said, before adding, "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"'' UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issue a joint statement expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while welcoming countries undertaking preparations, coordinating strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases, and exploring ways to boost output. >>> it takes TWO to TACO.. Iran has a say in it.. Markets : BoE unchanged as expected (and pretty hawkish overall - sharp UK gilts yields move in 2y +40bps !! somebody blew up out there..) , Software 'credit' gets all the headlines, building materials is quietly falling apart, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market , good wrap on the Iran war from Ed Conway (Thread), Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon (big if true) >>> slightly oversold Eq markets, liquidation in PM's last few days (ME accounts looking for 'any' usd liquidity..AND China buying big last 24hours...), Trump looking for some sort of 'off ramp' exit (allegedly) or will he go further in Iran with ground troops (seems unlikely, or suicidal ..probably just threats).., Pantagon asking for another $200bn for the war, 3weeks in, that's more of a sign that its not even close of being over though.. >>> HUGE quadruple witching OpEx day, watch moves into close.. FED : Near‑term inflation expectations have risen on supply shocks tied to energy and geopolitics, which tend to be episodic and act more like a tax on consumers. By contrast, longer‑term inflation expectations tied to wages, services, and consumption remain well anchored, suggesting demand‑driven inflation continues to ease. That distinction helps explain the Fed’s patience without taking rate cuts off the table this year..... U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.45 Trillion QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption , that's just the symptoms, this disease comes back every 10+ years, seen it before over the last 35yeara in markets... >> it's just too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline (lazy), and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned (driven by greed).. Goldman Sachs on stocks: The Hormuz shock is the largest oil supply shock on record" Equity correction risk remains elevated  in the near term, but we continue to think bear market  risk remains limited. While geopolitical shocks and their market impact are difficult to time, we think equities have not priced in enough risk premium for the risk of a more lasting shock - based on the disruptions so far our economists have already reflected a worsening growth/inflation mix and raised their recession probability." Israel Will Avoid Attacking Iran's Energy Assets, Netanyahu Says If the regime survives: Iran war raises the ante for US, Israel - Middle East Institute BIG if true Express News on X: "🚨 Breaking: Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon, saying they no longer want to fight and are calling to stand together against him, demanding peace and stating that war brings them no benefit. It was claimed that https://t.co/MPgO7i792R " / X Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the door for everyone to join the next era of artificial intelligence. Donald Trump, Japan's Takaichi announce $40 billion US nuclear reactor project | Today News This was the low of the lows.. Trump makes Pearl Harbor joke during meeting with Japan PM – NBC New York Meta AI agent’s instruction causes large sensitive data leak to employees | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says | Reuters Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% amid Iran conflict No-one on committee voted for a cut this time. And minutes say: "CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy." Investors expect hikes, not cuts, later this year Why Ferrari temporarily suspended deliveries in the Middle East? Explained | Business Upturn Airline SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April due to high fuel prices, DI reports | Reuters junkbondinvestor on X: "Software gets all the headlines. Building materials is quietly falling apart. > Cornerstone: 60 cents > Jeld-Wen: 74 cents > US LBM: 90% EBITDA decline guided Higher rates. Less renovation. Same 2022 leverage https://t.co/iMWL3ek4tI " / X UK interest rates held at 3.75% as Iran war scuppers hopes of a cut | MoneyWeek TFTC on X: "JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products https://t.co/T6kiOshljb " / X Ed Conway on X: "📽️ There have been many scary, unnerving days in this latest Gulf war. But the past 24 hours was particularly bad. Why? Because both sides are now causing lasting damage to the world economy's life support system. Our latest primer on the econ consequences of this war👇 https://t.co/OaFcS7ehr8 " / X

The Fed sort of said neutral rates are going higher (dots, inflation..), not temporarily but maybe even structurally, a 3.1% terminal rate reprices EVERYTHING with a duration component.. unless of course we get a big recession and inflation heads south, but not for pleasant reasons clearly.. and Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the bad news early: "There is effectively ZERO NET JOB CREATION in the private sector." ''The American empire is at risk''.. clearly, of being replaced by CHINA in the Middle East , they are stepping up to mediate peace in the region, in Yuan, completely bypassing the US.... AND >>> The AI boom is AT RISK of being confirmed over, a long lasting, more expensive / energy crisis, making energy hungry AI investments near impossible.. / far too expensive, and thus #valuations are way off... Markets : US February PPI came in higher than expected at 3.4% vs expectations at 2.9% This means core inflation is heating up!, private credit exodus from investors spreads to consumer loans, BANK DEFAULTS likely up from Middle East resorts, refineries, infrastructure, real estate..., JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand, Stoneridge AM only 11% you can have, Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed (every single time - chart available)..,   U.S national debt $39 TRN, two ECB hikes of 25bps now priced in for ECB in 2026, FED will do nothing (unless forced to emergency cut if say equity markets tank in short-term - they will panic), PM risk assets as ME capital disappears >>>> overall, NO need to be too brave, wait for opportunities to come your way.., the real eye of the storm is approaching, prepare your shopping list of solid names, balance-sheets..(we have), liquidation as/when funding runs out in parts of the world, create dislocation and opportunities.., a 10-20pct correction cannot be ruled out, due to this ME war, it is ALL about the length of the conflict, but already some EXTREMELY serious damage done to infrastructure, military stance, LNF, crude, fertilizers and so on.., huge GDP loss in ME, followed by more bad loans etc.. Private credit is panicking : • Defaults have quadrupled • ~20-25% exposure to software facing AI disruption • Retail investors are running for the exits, only getting 10-15pct liquidity.. (bet they weren't told this when they initially invested..) China stops fertilizer exports as American farmers face fertilizer shortages Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, Iran does not need to win a conventional war. All they have to do is keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and bleed the Gulf economies dry....and they don't need to be on Truth social every 30 seconds either... Citi not ruling out $200 oil. "We are incrementally bullish very near-term and see prices rising to $110–120/bbl in the base case, with the risk skew surrounding current prices tilted to the upside. Our bull case scenario (multiple paths to get there) is for Brent prices to reach $150/bbl, and for ‘all-in’ crude and product prices reaching as high as $180–200/bbl by mid-year ." Over £1.3bn missing at failed lender. #MFS investigated over ‘very serious’ fraud claims #GOLD : Question: Who sells their gold in such a macro environment? Answer: Anyone who needs liquidity to make ends meet. For example, the Gulf states, whose economy is now existentially threatened by the war This war is the end of the empire. "If Iran holds out, if Iran achieves its objectives, well, it's in effect the end of, the American empire." French intellectual Emmanuel Todd says it's not Russia winning, it's the West losing. All self inflicted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said the quiet part out loud -- and these 8 words are roiling Wall Street Exclusive-US Weighs Military Reinforcements as Iran War Enters Possible New Phase Iran inflicts ‘extensive damage’ on site of world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar Iran conflict turns shipping market into ‘wild west’ "The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense." Israel Iran War Iran May Allow Oil Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz, But There's A China Catch Israel destroys river bridges in southern Lebanon why...humm Private credit’s investor exodus spreads to consumer loans Private credit jitters ripple to funds with consumer loan holdings - InvestmentNews JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand THE ISLANDER on X: "🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Circa 27% percent of the world’s maritime crude oil trade moves through that strait. Iran https://t.co/NnCV5gxxrP " / X Lenders warn collapsed UK ‘shadow bank’ has £1.3bn hole Negligible Capital on X: "Private credit’s investor exodus is spreading to consumer loans, according to WSJ Interval fund Stone Ridge Asset Management, which holds consumer loans made by $XYZ and $AFRM are apparently under stress due to redemption requests Stone Ridge honoring 11% redemption requests https://t.co/V0lotMcP1P " / X Brian Sozzi on X: "🤔Citi's "two scenarios" for the US war on Iran: First Scenario "Over the next several weeks, the Administration’s appetite for the conflict diminishes and the United States pulls out, declaring the operations a resounding success.  As the US pulls out, the Iranian regime takes" / X

Markets : The Trump team intends to deploy troops to the shores of Iran for "sea control" on Kharg Island.... . Brent drops, Iraq agreed with Kurdistan to resume oil exports through a pipeline in the semi-autonomous region, a boost for OPEC’s second-largest producer after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced output cuts, the shipments will resume on Wednesday at 10 a.m. local time, the Kurdish Rudaw news service reported, citing Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani, Kurdistan’s government confirmed the resumption in a statement, US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever, the Bypass fails: UAE slashes Oil prod by 50% as Fujairah shuts down, leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy (that’s sunk to 60), #KRE below 200dma, U.S mortgage rates surge to 6.86% — highest level since last Nov, Artificial intelligence is making the world more unpredictable, Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China, Six months before the Trump admin began bombing Iran, the Department of State fired its oil and gas experts (shocking..) >>> Eq markets 'want' to squeeze higher, lower vols, lower crude should help shake short-term positioning in long crude, long usd, long vols, short equity... #JPY Japan wage talks point to 5% hike for third straight year. Increase would mark first such streak in 35 years, pending final tallies One theory is that Trump may have genuinely believed (wrongly) that winning in Iran would give him a leg-up on China in the negotiations, and he's delaying the trip because it went the opposite way and he'd be negotiating - from his standpoint - from a position of weakness... #miscalculated #badlyadvised #randomdecision In BofA's latest fund manager survey, cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, "Global growth optimism slumps to net 7% from 39%, inflation expectations jump to net 45% from 9%, rate cut optimism lowest since Feb'23; but no one pricing in recession:" Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling, the first of many ?... KKR Co-CEO: “The largest 100 U.S. companies in the United States have seen their margins expand materially in the last 5 years, 14% to 19%. The next 1,400 companies have had their margins flat and are working to stay even.“ Fed Meeting Begins as Iran War Complicates the Path for Interest Rate Cuts Iran war: What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island Trump struggles to build coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid Iran war No wonder when you spent best part of year telling them all how useless they were... Iran launces strikes on Israel, U.S. assets after Larijani is killed US drops 5,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs on Iran missile sites near Strait of Hormuz: What is it - CNBC TV18 Dubai Abu Dhabi News LIVE: Dubai Intercepts Iranian Missiles; UAE Says Its Air Defences Dealing With Missile Threat - News18 Iran-US war: Missiles shot down over Dubai Macron: France will never join operations to open the Strait of Hormuz | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Iran war: Germany's Merz distances himself from Trump Trump-Xi meeting may be postponed: Beijing denies 'false reports', says delay not linked to Strait of Hormuz issue Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises - NOTUS — News of the United States ABSOLUTELY top planning ! China is not going to bail Trump out Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling Malaysie the first of many more to come ?... Inside San Francisco’s new AI school: is this the future of US education? | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China Investors underestimating AI, says Oaktree's Howard Marks Top Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets "Asked what kind of recovery rates he anticipates on a private-credit loan to a generic small or midsize “Joe Software Company,” Zito said: “Joe Software Company, if he’s in the wrong place, I think is going to recover somewhere between 20 and 40 cents.” Shadow bank collapse floods London with luxury properties Reeves’ ambitious growth rhetoric clashes with reality Illiquid Insights on X: "Competition in direct lending has inflated EBITDA addbacks. 5.0x leverage today is very different from a decade ago. https://t.co/4dZxiFRLs1 " / X Illiquid Insights on X: "1L leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy. That’s sunk to 60. Weaker docs and less junior debt are squeezing recoveries. https://t.co/wOFFDuorcj " / X Why no one wants to buy a flat in London Not everything ever goes up in price, whoever taught this to people.. maybe a little naiver to believe this too... the real issue is 'service charge ...and taxes'...which have become quite ridiculous in parts of London.. >> END leasehold !!

Gain insight into the values that frame our thinking and drive our decisions at Pure Value Metrics Meet the Team We provide a full range of services with relationship managment support. Our complimentary Daily PVM "Bits Blog" keeps you in touch with global markets. Team Our Team of seasoned industry experts with over 75 combined years of banking, investment and compliance experience are at your disposal Stephan Collet Chief Executive Officer Richard-Mark Dodds Chief Investment Officer Elke Balters Compliance Officer Alison Lazerwitz Non Executive Director Our Service Providers Swiss Comply Compliance ICS ProCloud AG Information Technology Provider Our Custodian Bank Partners Saxo Bank Switzerland Bank J. Safra Sarasin UBS AG Our Values Corporate Responsibility As a forward-looking Asset Manager, we understand that the world's resources are finite and so we look for opportunities to invest in companies which use these efficiently. Value You're in control; with our partners you have full access to either trade directly or view your account in 'real-time' at anytime. If your account is managed you will able to view our pending orders; so you can see what we are looking to buy, and at what price. Transparency Whether it be from our Management and Performance fees on our managed accounts or the execution pricing on our Self Trading platform to a core principle within our investment process; value for our clients is fundamental to our identity. Sustainability An ever present reality is global population expansion and the effects that it will have on the environment in which we live. Therefore, it is essential that the companies behind the stocks in which we invest also share our ethical values to provide positive change to global infrastructure.

Pure Value Metrics AG is a Global Equity Asset Manager based in Pfäffikon Switzerland specializing in Trusts Welcome to Pure Value Metrics Pure Value Metrics works with a broad selection of Global clients including, Family Offices / UHNWI, Corporates and Private Investors to offer innovative Multi-Family Offices Services, including Trusts with the Geopolitical Security of the assets in Switzerland, Asset Management and Trading solutions. Relative Value investing anchored by detailed balance sheet analysis PVM is an asset manager with a unique Investment Matrix dynamic portfolio selection process, which involves targeting single value stocks and then taking a deep dive into their balance sheets for financial robustness and then assessing their relative value both against their competitors and themselves, to determine the investment entry and exit point. PVM BITs BLOG Our daily round-up of Global Macro Market Trends and insightful news topics are offered with a free subscription Subscribe Blog Credit markets cracking / ME war:no sign of easing / Hormuz still blocked, WTI $100 again / Risk under pressure=USD bid Private credit is the new subprime / WTI back to +$90..ships hit in Hormuz / Market outcomes ALL a function of duration Trump TACO'ed early..now a war he can't win and can't end? / Crude up & down 25%, risk rallies back, USD softens again Media Apperances PVM CIO on CNBC PVM & Bloomberg on Global Macroeconomics Please reach out to discuss your requirements Contact us / Visit our office

Asset Management Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build portfolios with superior analytical metrics, compared to mainstream equity indices. We currently have two different Portfolio offerings; firstly our classical Long only Global Equity model (suitable for all investors), and a Multi-Asset Class model, designed to generate additional alpha (suitable for Professional and Institutional clients only). We deliver discretionary portfolio management through individually segregated accounts held in your name. This flexible mandate empowers you to complement our core PVM Investment Matrix Portfolio by actively incorporating listed securities of your own selection. PVM Global Equity Long Strategy Type Long Only Global Equity Suitable for All Investors Focus Absolute return/low risk Minimum Investment 250k CHF 2025 Performance 2026 Performance (end Feb) +21% +4.0% Performance over 10 years +102% More PVM Global Multi-Asset Strategy Type Multi-Asset Class Suitable for Qualified Investors Focus Absolute return Minimum Investment 250k CHF 2025 Performance 2026 Performance (end Feb) + 26% +0.6% Performance over 10 years +170% More Our Investment Philosophy Investment Matrix Fundamental Design In 2015 we developed our dynamic Investment Matrix consisting of many fundamental variables, designed to identify value opportunities within Global Equities. Our Investment Matrix is constructed to identify and establish sustainable value. There are many reasons why that value may also not be sustainable, such as changing consumer sentiment or spending more on share buybacks than current cashflow permits, the PVM Investment Matrix reacts to these changes. Algorithmic Processes Systematic Throughout We utilise proprietary algorithmic screening, with a high degree of automation, to analyse the global equity universe, monitor our Clients' Portfolios, and identify new opportunities. Furthermore, we use algorithmic execution tools when buying and selling our clients' portfolios, where appropriate. Qualitative Rationale Deeper Understanding Driven by deep analysis of balance sheets and employing further levels of qualitative analysis, results in a thorough understanding of the companies we invest in. We consider factors, such as; the mix of Goodwill and Intangibles to Net Equity, tracking deviations from recognized Accounting Standards and taking a broader view of the global economic landscape. Robust Returns, less Risk Better Together The combination of quantitative systematic analysis, overlaid with qualitative reviews and active management within clearly defined parameters, results in an investment model which is both robust and not easy to replicate. Stable returns are achieved by taking less investment risk, at higher valuations. Investment Process We believe that an uncompromising investment process is a key component in delivering consistent returns.