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Yes, the World cup kicks off today! Iran war updates : Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz (help explains relatively soft crude prices?), Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault U.S inflation hit 4.2%, a 3-year high. But strip out the oil war and core inflation actually cooled a little. This is-looks like a supply shock, not demand. The Fed cannot fix the Strait of Hormuz with rate hikes, though the longer crude prices stay high, the hardest it'll be to deal with inflation, add the K economy to it and it's a nightmare.. >>> "Simply put, the inflation of the Iran war will soon force the US (and by extension, much of the West) to choose between “save the currency” (let bond yields rise sharply with inflation, i.e., bond prices FALL sharply), breaking everything but the USD and gold) or “save the bond market” (print USD to cap UST yields to maintain nominal US government solvency, turbocharging the already accelerating and soon-to-be problematic inflation)." Markets : U.S markets fell as U.S CPI rose to a 3y high, Iran worries on the increase again and SpaceX pre IPO nerves tested, FX super quiet, although #CHF a little softer (200dma #EURCHF is around current levels 0.9230.. ), broadly speaking we expect SNB to be unchanged next week (economy soft, inflation near lows..nothing to do, see here..), and rest of the world likely to hike (ECB to hike today all about 'inflation forecast' going fwd, BoJ priced in, FOMC probably unch but hawkish), should keep CHF on soft side, #Oracle falls after hours on 'higher spending', more debt yet again!, which is slowly but surely being questioned across AI-Tech sector, SpaceX a clear 'sentiment' indicator for the whole sector, either way !, OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered ChatGPT getting worse, did you notice ? ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer >> You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse (Thread) Swiss National Bank expected to resist global rate-hike trend: Reuters poll | Euronews Bank of Japan governor Ueda hospitalised, will miss June meeting | Reuters Oracle’s stock slides after earnings, as the steep price of AI spooks investors OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Pimco Warns a Wave of Defaults Is Coming for Low-Quality Borrowers | Financial Post BofA warns investors to take profits as 70% of the bank's bear market signals flash red Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz | The Seattle Times US and Iran exchange strikes across Middle East for second day in a row Iran, US-Israel war LIVE updates: Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault - World News | The Financial Express Alex Finn on X: "AI subscriptions are dead Claude Fable 5 will only be on the Anthropic subscription until June 22nd. After that, you will need to pay for usage per token This will be the start of a much larger trend Frontier models will no longer be included in subs You’ll pay a fee and it" / X Nav Toor on X: "You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the https://t.co/hJHOMEnpEh" /

Central Bank update : pretty insane...46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets (Thread), Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate 'hike' from the ECB on June 11th and an 83% probability of a 25bps hike from the Bank of Japan on June 16th. The first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh follows on June 17th Markets : China factory gates hits 4y highs, SpaceX apparently 4x oversubscribed (so sell-off over ? ), interesting political move from Starmer in UK, There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO (Thread), Dollar and yields continue to dictate PM's, gold’s direction >>> a strong CPI today will force ''market to reprice'' FED and look for a 'hawkish' FED meeting next week! South Koreans liquidate savings and insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung rally Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity called X Exclusive-SpaceX IPO demand is approaching four times oversubscribed, source says Philip Pilkington on X: "There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO. 📈📉 https://t.co/ogiClS4gNN" / X China's factory-gate inflation hits near 4-year high - RTHK Global Markets Investor on X: "‼️THIS IS INSANE: 46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets. The US is running +1.8 percentage points above its 2% target, and the Eurozone +1.2 percentage points above. Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate cut https://t.co/WpOLkm4h9M" / X US and Iran exchange strikes as ceasefire crumbles Iran war live: Tehran targets US forces in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera #ETH Ethereum news: Tom Lee’s BitMine just slashed ETH buying by 74%, here’s what comes next Same as Saylor..Tom Lee's BitMine holds over 5,400,000 ETH, bought at an average near $3,476. With ETH below $1,800, that's roughly $8,900,000,000 in unrealized losses. ‘You can’t fly planes that are empty’: Airlines draw up cuts for ‘ugly’ winter South Koreans Liquidate Savings and Insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung Rally South Koreans are cashing out their insurance policies and savings deposits to pile into the local stock rally. >>> Stuff like this makes you go 'Hummmm', the kind of things you see near overbought, overvalued markets SAXO update from Charu Investor QA Is the AI selloff a reset or a warning shot | Saxo A few key thoughts: This still looks more like a reset within a bull market than the start of a broader bear-market shift. The usual warning signs — recession stress, disorderly yields, extreme oil prices or a broad earnings collapse — are not clearly visible yet. The easy phase of the AI rally is likely over. The market has moved from rerating to proof, which means AI-linked companies now need to show clearer monetisation, earnings delivery, capex discipline and returns on infrastructure spend. This is not a uniform risk-off move yet. The pressure is concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, while defensives, value areas and laggards are still finding buyers. That makes breadth and rotation important signals to watch. Macro is back in the driver’s seat. Strong US data, higher oil, Middle East uncertainty and renewed Fed hike pricing are making markets less willing to look through bad — or even just less-good — news. Gold vs Silver: Which is the best bet this summer? – The Armchair Trader Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is extraordinarily rare. In fact, according to a key figure in the German business community (who is a dear friend of mine), it's unprecedented. An op-ed, two pages, centerpiece, in Germany’s most important economic newspaper (the Handelsblatt) that begs the German https://t.co/k7Uhv2HwaE" / X Keir Starmer is about to burn down the Labour Party - but Andy Burnham will get the blame Back me of you are fired.. fair enough, ministers can't have a foot in both camps..choose between loyalty to the government or support the next dude...., no double dealing, can't support Burnham if they are in government, and it will force Burnham to come with actual policies (rather than walk in on populist ideas that he is better).. fascinating Starmer may tell ministers to quit if they back Burnham - Breaking The News StockMarket.News on X: "The man who called the 2008 housing collapse just made a prediction about Elon Musk that is hard to ignore (Save this). Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity https://t.co/Y2plCdMv1y" / X

In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...this IS a big change, which doesn't seem to bother Mr Market, so far anyway Iran updates : Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will hold fire in Iran for now, vowing to respond with “great force” if Tehran strikes again. The PM said he told Trump that the Jewish state has a full right to self-defense. Oil edged lower, Markets : OpenAI files for IPO, stocks rebound + yet more talks of ceasefire in Iran and a deal, SpaceX’s IPO is well oversubscribed, people familiar said, Morningstar values it at $65, since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged (ALL about AI-see thread), BoJ set to hike on 15th June (all priced now), Steve Eisman is not a SpaceX fan either, it'll be fun that's for sure ! will watch for a far on this one..it's overvalued and not prepared to pay for 'future' parabolic growth on AI.., AND BIG TECHS typically bought back their own shares for years, “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,” .. #KOSPI Analysts warn KOSPI could fall another 20% as foreign investors flee the country in the face of domestic and international inflation. In short, the country’s intentional manipulation of memory markets with Taiwan are risking destroying the global economy by record high inflation #Oil When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production. When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months The Fight to Break China’s Rare-Earth Dominance Moves to a New Front in Brazil. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves and wants to become a processor of critical minerals, but it refuses to choose sides between Washington and Beijing. (WSJ) NZZ : (couldn't agree more, BEWARE!!..)... In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...When companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX raise hundreds of billions of dollars in capital through their IPOs, this drains even more liquidity from the rest of the stock market. At the same time, the U.S. government is stimulating the economy through massive new borrowing and the issuance of government bonds with very short maturities, and is also obtaining the necessary liquidity for this on the financial markets. In the next twelve to eighteen months, we’re also facing a so-called “debt wall”: $80 trillion in loans that companies and governments took out at near-zero interest rates during the pandemic now need to be refinanced. “That’s almost twice as much as in normal times and requires additional liquidity,” Trump demands Israel and Iran stand down as new hostilities threaten ceasefire - AOL Analysts Warn: “KOSPI Could Fall as Low as 6,000” - Businesskorea Jim Bianco on X: "Since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged. So, the entire S&P 500 Index rally since February has been driven by AI stocks. But look at what happened on Friday, June 5th! The S&P 500 was https://t.co/VYEtOCxWho" / X Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar 'The Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says he's not a fan of SpaceX's IPO due to concerns about its AI business Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine | Saxo Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens - Bloomberg China Keeps Buying Gold - Tavi Costa Davos Deadlock: Trump Team, EU, and PLATFORM Hold Talks – Why US Citizens Remain Locked Out | The Guardian Odds of Reform winning by-election 'significantly worse' after Rob Kenyon's BBCQT appearance Anthropic's IPO moment is here, but Wall Street wants more – The Armchair Trader

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