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Markets : Crude on 4year lows, 4.6% unemployment rate in U.S has always signaled recession in the past 50years, Citadel's Griffin on Rep party and inflation (below), Portfolio managers' cash level drops to a record low 3.3%. Dec BofA FMS (all FM survey headlines below), the BoE WILL welcome softer inflation this morning (3.2% - cut tomorrow nailed on, and more to come in 2026), BoJ will hike rates to the highest level since 1995 on Friday, VW shuts down production at German plant (unheard of..), GOLD, SILVER, PLAT mainly and PALL rally unprecedented this year, what else!.. many miners, junior miners not really joined in the fun #SIL #SILJ etc >>> markets rallied off lows yesterday #QQQ when FED injected $4bn in MBSat 1:30 eastern time, let's see how goes into OpEx, Venezuela, BoJ hike and Epstein files release by end of the week, imho markets feel super heavy, FM survey shows managers are long (all-in basically, which is fine till it isn't), prepare, plan accordingly..would be very careful over next few weeks.. and going into early 2026 Trade : The US threatened to retaliate against EU companies, including Accenture, Siemens and Spotify in response to the bloc’s digital tax efforts, Geopolitics : TAIWAN is a red line" - CHINA warns ISRAEL, US-VENEZUELA CRISIS: Donald Trump orders a blockade (a la Cuba missile crisis) of "all sanctioned oil tankers" going into and out of Venezuela. He claims some of the Venezuelan oil fields belong to America (bit of act of war, surely not coincidental with the Epstein files coming out on Friday...), Public market price discovery can be BRUTAL...-FT Goldman : Gold ETF's account for just 0.17% of private portfolios.... AI how good is it really ?...Only 15% of executives saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year according to Forrester. BCG found just 5% of executives saw widespread value from AI. Forrester predicts companies will delay about 25% of their planned AI spending in 2026 by a year Citadel founder Ken Griffin says the Republican party is struggling with policies on tariffs and immigration that are fueling inflation during an interview with Dani Burger at the Conference de Paris Silver may soar further as China curbs exports from January 1 - The HinduBusinessLine Mark on X: "ED STEER: "Throw Technical Analysis Out the Window" - Why This Silver Rally is Different. 📈 Silver's price acceleration is entering parabolic territory. Here’s how fast each $10 move has happened: ➡️ $20 to $30: 145 days ➡️ $30 to $40: 145 days ➡️ $40 to $50: 39 days ➡️ $50 to https://t.co/fUhgutacZL " / X US Threatens Retaliation Over EU Digital Tax Griffin Writes Checks to Spur Citadel Employees’ Nonprofit Work - Bloomberg Private market marks, say hello to public markets VW to Shut Down Production at German Plant | SupplyChainBrain Musk said he’d pull back from politics. He’s donating again Nigel Farage’s £9m Donor Profits From Putin Propaganda Platform While Holding MoD Stake – Byline Times Hedgie on X: "🦔Only 15% of executives saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year according to Forrester. BCG found just 5% of executives saw widespread value from AI. Forrester predicts companies will delay about 25% of their planned AI spending in 2026 by a year. Klarna rolled" / X Milton Friedman Quotes on X: "Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.” “If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.” https://t.co/cvPpAfbL1b " / X Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot | Extremetech The AI Data Center Short | Jim Chanos on Oracle, Data Centers Landlords, and GPU Merchants - Monetary Matters with Jack Farley | Podcast on Spotify Global Surveillance on X: "BREAKING; "TAIWAN IS A RED LINE" - CHINA warns ISRAEL CHINESE Embassy in ISRAEL stated that the TAIWAN issue is a "red line that cannot be crossed" and urged Israel to "correct its erroneous actions". Beijing warned that continuing official or military contacts could severely https://t.co/b3Uuz8oRfZ " / X Global Fund Manager Survey The bullet points below provide more details on the latest survey results: ▪ In terms of global growth expectations, a net 18% of respondents expect a stronger economy over the next 12 months, compared with a net 3% the previous month. ▪ The FMS broad measure of sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations, further improved to 7.4 from 6.4 the previous month, the highest since July 2021. ▪ On inflation, a net 2% of respondents expect a higher global CPI in the next 12 months, compared with a net 2% who expected a lower CPI the previous month.  Inflation expectations have come down sharply over the past few months given tariffs have not led to a sharp increase in consumer prices as some had feared. ▪ Equity allocation rose to a net 42% overweight from 34% overweight the previous month, the highest since December 2024.  Current allocation is 0.6 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Allocation to US equities rose to a net 6% overweight, vs. -6% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 0.5 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Allocation to Eurozone equities rose to a net 18% overweight vs. 9% overweight the previous month.  Current allocation is in line with the long-term average. ▪ A net positive percentage of respondents are saying companies are overinvesting, which is unusual.  However, the net percentage who believe so has fallen to 14% from 20% the previous month. ▪ Bond allocation fell to a net -29% underweight from -12% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 0.4 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ Cash allocation fell to -11% underweight from -8% underweight the previous month.  Current allocation is 2 standard deviations below the long-term average. ▪ Commodities allocation was net 18% overweight, compared with 17% overweight the previous month.  Commodities allocation is the highest since September 2022 and 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term average. ▪ A net 53% of respondents believe the USD is overvalued, up from 45% the previous month.   ▪ A net 34% of respondents believe gold is overvalued, up from 32% the previous month.

Markets : equity softer ahead of a barrage of delayed US data (payrolls today), FED uncertainty persist, Hassett suddenly not the favorite on betting markets, FORD kills it's all electric F-150-a $19.5bn write-off (Trump cut subsidizes...), an ounce of SILVER is now for the first time worth more and a barrel of Crude, BoJ meeting on Friday is a key event for risk (PARTICULARLY AFTER THE VIX expiries..) , ORCL is now down 45% since the AI hyped highs 2months ago (debt..), Epstein files are scheduled to be released on Friday, per the Epstein Files Transparency Act (suspect Trump will do all sorts of other things to divert attention then, Venezuela bomboing and god knows what else) , Dutch Pension Shift Obsessing Bond Traders Is About to Get Real-BBG >>> equity markes clearly is a spot of bother, sell rallies, big risk after US data dump and VIX expiries this week (often a trigger..), USDollar looks soft, previous metals loving it still, since we recommended earlier in the year..XPT now up 100pct year-to-date, Silver same, PALL reacting slowly but surely too, while BTC struggles.. Geopolitics : UKR-RU deal full of hope, but doesn't sound like a deal is imminent (Rosenberg) EU yields to pressure from automakers as it rethinks 2035 combustion car ban #PLAT OpenAI Researcher quits, saying Company is hiding the Truth . It 's not letting potentially damning research get out there Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian forecasts the S&P 500 ending 2026 at 7,100, implying just 4% upside and the most bearish Street view Trump has put Starmer’s £31bn “tech prosperity deal” on ice to force the UK to drop its digital tax and weaken food standards >> REOPEN customs union negotiations fast!!.. and this is absolutely MENTAL : "Annual average regular earnings growth was 7.6% for the public sector and 3.9% for the private sector" - ONS, weaker UK payroll employment data too this morning (5.1%) Bethany McLean broke the Enron scandal. Tomorrow, she publishes her first investigation for Hunterbrook — on a company that may epitomize the AI bubble. DeSantis says AI Data Centers have ZERO economic benefit for locals Experts ” predictions for Bitcoin before the end of 2025 ... just imagine the amount of money spent on these experts... $170,000 - JPMorgan $180,000 - VanEck $200,000 - Standard Chartered $250,000 - Tim Draper $126,000 - Tom Lee $350,000 - Robert Kiyosaki $500,000 - Chamath Palihapitiya Dutch Pension Bond Shift Risks Triggering Bond Market Volatility - Bloomberg Ford Kills the All-Electric F-150 as It Rethinks Its EV Ambitions | WIRED Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 3 AM ET: CoreWeave's Staggering Fall From Market Grace Highlights AI Bubble Fears | CEOs ... | Morningstar OpenAI Researcher Quits, Saying Company Is Hiding the Truth The Suez Canal Reopening Is a 2026 Gift for Commodities - Bloomberg UBS-Dollar-Skandal: Höchstes Opfer – ein Subalterner – Inside Paradeplatz McKinsey layoffs show white-collar job cuts are spreading Steve Rosenberg on X: "Doesn’t sound like a peace deal is imminent. “Beating a dead horse” is how the Russian government paper describes the US-Ukraine talks in Berlin. Meanwhile, “tax debts of Russians & businesses increased by 20% this year” & “alcohol prices may rise 10-17%” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/ApcugkuZxr " / X Bit long but priceless if you have time ! The Plan is to Make the Internet Worse. Forever. | Aaron Bastani Meets Cory Doctorow Goldman (Bartlett): - AI is no longer the ~only micro theme in the market, but it’s still the most important, and I think it’s safe to say the thematic disappointed [last] week. - ORCL spent too much (raised FY26 Capex, market no longer rewarding off-balance sheet spend), AVGO didn’t raise AI Revenue forecast by enough, OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT 5.2 didn’t spark the market’s interest like Gemini 3 did in early Nov, and [Friday's] report of ORCL datacenter pushouts didn’t help matters (even if it was refuted later). - After a solid 2 week rally in the trade, some air is clearly getting let back out, and most AI stocks are now back to ~flat on a 2 month+ basis. EU yields to pressure from automakers as it rethinks 2035 combustion car ban | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "Miran offered a detailed breakdown of his inflation outlook, arguing that underlying price pressures are closer to the Fed's 2% target than headline figures suggest—and that tariffs are not the culprit for the recent uptick in goods prices. On shelter, he said the catchup to" / X Ryan Crosswell quit Trump's DOJ. Now his resignation letter is part of his stump speech for Congress says he’s running for Congress to NOT ONLY expose Pam Bondi's corruption in the record, but to ALSO hold her accountable. This is huge DeSantis calls for restricting data centers - E&E News by POLITICO

Markets : big backlog of U.S economic data is coming this week, "Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot", some Oracle Data Centers for OpenAI delayed to 2028 From 2027, OpenAI will spend $6 billion on stock-based compensation this year, half of its revenue (read that again..!), Chile far right wins presidential election runoff (a trend in LatAm), , China retail sales down 1.3% yoy in Nov (property sales down 16% yoy, and fixed asset investment are down 2.6%-yikes), U.S layoffs in late 2025 are accelerating >>>> Bond yields up a little even in deflation-weak China, FOMC cut, but global rates don’t care #duration— and that’s not great news for risk and equities in general, however...precious metals! 'what else'... PLAT now on 14year highs, SILVER and GOLD keep on trucking, even PALL is waking up too.., USDOllar remains soft, risk is a decent move lower into year-end, and BTC is ....doing nothing sitting just above recent lows near $90K... AI in a nutshell.... : “I’m concerned that a small number of highly educated multi billionaires living on the coasts will be viewed as having created technology that puts millions out of work” “This promises even more social and political division than we have now, making the world ripe for populist demagoguery.”....''avoid disaster...'' The Federal Reserve has started buying short-term government bonds (i.e., government debt) to increase bank reserves, which is why we cannot call it Quantitative Easing/Thread Merz : '''the decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. That's the way it is. The Americans are now very, very aggressively pursuing their own interests. And that can only mean one thing: that we, too, must now pursue our own interests.''' UK's Miliband isolated as EU prepares to reverse petrol car ban Market Quick Take - 15 December 2025 | Saxo China’s worst retail sales since Covid add to growth risks | The Straits Times Chile election: Far-right Kast wins presidential runoff – DW – 12/14/2025 Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 pandemic, Challenger says 'America ruthlessly pursuing own interests': Merz says 'Pax Americana' over for Europe | Watch Ukraine Says Russian Drone Hit Turkish Cargo Vessel in Black Sea - The Moscow Times Is It a Bubble? Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ on X: "THE GRID WILL BREAK FIRST Texas just received requests for 226 gigawatts of data center power. The entire state runs on 85 gigawatts. Here is what nobody is telling you. ERCOT's interconnection queue nearly quadrupled in twelve months. From 63 gigawatts in December 2024 to https://t.co/Q0M9ibgrqn " / X Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot | Extremetech Also Microsoft $MSFT  rolling out absolutely insane price increases +43% for Microsoft 365 personal subscriptions Oracle’s debt trades like junk as bond, CDS spreads flare - The HinduBusinessLine They burned through $12 BILLION in one quarter building data centers. Their free cash flow? NEGATIVE $10 billion, no near-term revenue and HUGE Capex spent OpenAI Ends Vesting Cliff For Employee Stock Options Again As Competition For Top-Tier Talent Intensifies: Report - Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) - Benzinga OpenAi's fate will be to be aquired by somebody like Microsoft, at a fraction of its ridiculous valuations.. Again, this is not really QE at all, and inflation expectations at near 4.5% ! jeroen blokland on X: "The Federal Reserve has started buying short-term government bonds (i.e., government debt) to increase bank reserves, which is why we cannot call it Quantitative Easing. At the same time, Trump is making it extremely clear that ‘Federal Reserve independence’ is a myth by https://t.co/NJj9VgDVH2 " / X EU poised to reverse ban on petrol cars More ranting and more lies.. so much of it around, it's hard to pick the best of the day.. StockMarket.News on X: "Trump says the US has "taken in $18 trillion due to tariffs," he's not talking about revenue collected at the border. Instead, he's referring to "investment" commitments from companies and foreign governments that have pledged to spend money in America to either get tariff https://t.co/JnzIcMTuBi " / X Jared Kushner is at the center of Trump's corruption - Salon.com

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