Fed minutes in focus: Investors will scrutinise the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting for signs of how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation against a cooling labour market. Markets currently price around a 35% probability of a Sep rate hike Iran update : Trump takes Iran hard line as Hormuz tensions set new normal Markets : crude firmer yet again Brent +$90, bond yields a little softer overnight 10's UST 4.68%, China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years ('households deleveraging cycle!!¨¨ , property prices down 30-50% since 2019 record highs, record low yields etc.. / Thread) U.S Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history & Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade (charts below), PHP hits an all time lows vs USD, THE AVERAGE AI TOKEN PRICES ARE NOW DOWN OVER 50% OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS (good for users, should be negative for stock prices of related companies..) >>> few selling-hedges put on last 2 days in QQQ as UST yields hit new slight higher highs and USD rallied, all small moves, but reversed overnight The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT (already has..) Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn (Thread) - once upon a time Germany exported card to China, now reversing!).. UK inflation accelerates: CPI rose to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, driven largely by higher energy costs, increasing pressure on the Bank of England and potentially limiting the scope for further rate cuts Gold standard is reborn amid central bank surge - TheStreet #USDPHP https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/currency UK inflation hits four-month high as energy bills reignite interest-rate risk Trump says no Iran talks planned as Hormuz tensions rise Shanghai Macro Strategist on X: "The year 2026 marks the official beginning of Chinese households’ deleveraging cycle. The definitive end of the household debt supercycle lies at the heart of the secular weakness in consumption—and, by extension, the prolonged decline in consumer-oriented equities. https://t.co/Sj5F1igiuB" / X Nic on X: "The ECB is worried about the AI bubble. Not because of Europe's stocks. Because of America's. Euro area households hold ~€440B in US tech, mostly via ETFs they think are diversified. If the Mag7 corrects, redemptions force funds to sell, deepening the crash. A US AI fallout https://t.co/BGyh5Z0uOa" / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany, where the China shock is becoming a serious industrial threat. Germany’s 12mth rolling trade deficit w/China has blown out to a record €102bn. At the same time, China is exporting more than 1mn cars a month, while weak domestic demand forces its https://t.co/zR3fSf2oUb" / X Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK, China, data shows | Reuters 'Business Becoming Difficult As Memory Prices Climb 500% In 12 Months': Sridhar Vembu How Small Businesses Can Control AI Spending with Token-Based Pricing | BizTech Magazine Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "📈 The AI boom is starting to reshape the global bond market itself - FT *Hyperscalers are now issuing huge amounts of debt, at the exact same time governments already have enormous financing needs. 💰 Amazon and Alphabet issue bonds in both dollars and euros while the https://t.co/UsW2AcV629" / X Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: China China just saw its largest monthly decline in bank loans in AT LEAST the last 6 years 📉 📉 https://t.co/Vp5wrgQXW6" / X Barchart on X: "Pending Home Sales fall to 2nd lowest level in history 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/sY7nS5yOCW" / Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Private Credit Percentage of loans from borrowers that have stopped paying or are on the brink of default is at its highest level in a decade 🤯 👀 https://t.co/sOPdHt5mYs" / X

Markets : While global yields are surging... China’s are plunging, 10 year yields in China now 1.67 % !!.., U.S. interest payments are now 3.3% of GDP, the highest level in history (chart available), US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history (Thread), 18days since the U.S Treasury JPY intervention and back tosquare one >>> starting to feel like we’re reaching peak AI bubble, ALWAYS hard to call such things but the drumbeat is growing louder, after the recent short-covering, might well be time to 're-hedge' a bit of QQQ risk from here Trump approval falls to 33%, lowest of his presidency. An overwhelming majority of Americans are concerned the U.S. war with Iran will last a long time, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump says Iran won't make deal he thinks is needed, threatens to bomb Oman, Iran was “not showing any interest in doing something that makes sense for us”, US special envoy Jared Kushner told Fox News. “They have to be willing to make a real deal.” Iran threatens new offensive while US rules out extending ceasefire deal. Outward progress towards peace talks and a resumption of oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt Morgan Stanley sends a blunt Tesla message to investors China Equities: Early-cycle, under-owned & still hated (opportunity..) BHP’s copper profits outstrip iron ore for first time Stellantis is recalling almost 1 million vehicles Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK, China, data shows This IS a problem... The Hormuz Letter on X: "BREAKING: US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history. Food is about to get a lot more expensive. Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by https://t.co/9dS9TTnJMy" / X https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP30Y Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Fell in June, Led by Japan Drop | Stock Market News Morgan Stanley sends a blunt Tesla message to investors - TheStreet Nasdaq plans 23-hour trading sessions from December 2026 to meet rising global demand for US stocks | Stock Market News >>> 'tokenisation' has really got them worried, gotta 'HYPE' it all further... Eliant Capital on X: "China Equities: Early-cycle, under-owned & still hated https://t.co/4U6tf6lUCG" / X Anthropic says annualized revenue climbed to $65 billion in July Stellantis's CEO used to run quality control. Ram just recalled 1.27 million trucks on his watch. BHP’s copper profits outstrip iron ore for first time The AI boom: rational enthusiasm or the next dot-com bubble? Billionaire Ray Dalio says today's artificial intelligence (AI) market echoes 1929 and 2000. History says investors should watch valuations closel

U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure!, we should hit $40trn debt today, remarkable achievement from the Trump administration...winning! Markets : Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell and Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high - GDP grows only 1.1% yoy, missing expectations as one would expect... (FT-article available for blog subscribers) >>> FED rate cut exp down to 30% for Sep (60% highs) following soft inflation data and weaker macro, USDollar softer (positioning got very long USDlast week...), PM's higher as you would expect, crude $80-85 , Strait of Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry, markets broadly speaking pretty steady and happy on low vols, FED expectations for Sep lowered/helping, for now we remain in low vol environment, watch Trump/iran/crude for clues and duration yields... Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps Fed rate-hike expectations fall: Markets have cut the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month to around 30% from 50%, after weaker US retail sales and consumer sentiment data raised concerns about the strength of the economy Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree. Swiss officials say gangs from France are responsible for a recent rise in ‘homejackings’, sometimes at gunpoint Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness Secretive Wall Street trading firm wrongfooted by July AI rout (apparent hero few months ago to this... stay humble everyone !)... OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for the companies actually building the models Strait of Hormuz shipping slows as U.S.-Iran ceasefire nears end Barchart on X: "JUST IN 🚨: Copper on track for its highest closing price in history 📈 📈 https://t.co/KFpuMf8FEG" / X Private credit under strain as troubled loans swell Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits three-decade high Geneva super-rich rocked by luxury home burglary spree Jane Street suffers $15bn hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness Barchart on X: "U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/XIx9WqBJC4" / X Mega-bunker for the super-rich being built in Swiss Alps - SWI swissinfo.ch Basel’s world-beating pharma hub fights for place in new global order - SWI swissinfo.ch Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 on X: "🧠 OpenAI has cut the price of one of its models by 80%, Anthropic is also lowering prices, while DeepSeek and Moonshot continue to push increasingly capable Chinese models at extremely low costs - FT *AI usage can continue to explode while becoming much harder to monetize for https://t.co/aLoUcbGNkA" / X

Meet the PVM team — 75+ years of combined professional experience in Swiss asset management and relative value investing. FAQs (/faq) MANAGEMENT TEAM Elke Balters Compliance Officer Qualified Lawyer Read More ProCloud AG Information Technology Provider Cloud Services and Cyber Security Read More SwissComply Compliance ICS Specialising in Finma Compliance Read More Alison Lazerwitz Non Executive Director Legal & strategy advisor Read More Stephan Collet Chief Executive Officer Expert in global macro and derivative products Read More Richard-Mark Dodds CIO & Chairman Detailed knowledge of fund management portfolio construction, accounting and treasury operations management. Read More

Relative value asset management for global assets. PVM's Investment Matrix combines balance-sheet analysis with peer comparison to identify entry and exit points. Asset Management Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build portfolios with superior analytical metrics, compared to mainstream equity indices. We currently have two different Portfolio offerings; firstly our classical Long only Global Equity model (suitable for all investors), and a Multi-Asset Class model, designed to generate additional alpha (suitable for Professional and Institutional clients only). We deliver discretionary portfolio management through individually segregated accounts held in your name. This flexible mandate empowers you to complement our core PVM Investment Matrix Portfolio by actively incorporating listed securities of your own selection. PVM Global Equity Long Strategy Type Long Global Equity Suitable for All Investors Focus Absolute return/low risk Minimum Investment 150k CHF 2025 Performance 2026 Performance (31. July) +21% +5.1% Performance over 10 years +103% More PVM Global Multi-Asset Strategy Type Multi-Asset Class Suitable for Qualified Investors Focus Absolute return Minimum Investment 250k CHF 2025 Performance 2026 Performance (31. July) + 26% +8.5% Performance over 10 years +170% More Our Investment Philosophy Investment Matrix Fundamental Design In 2015 we developed our dynamic Investment Matrix consisting of many fundamental variables, designed to identify value opportunities within Global Equities. Our Investment Matrix is constructed to identify and establish sustainable value. There are many reasons why that value may also not be sustainable, such as changing consumer sentiment or spending more on share buybacks than current cashflow permits, the PVM Investment Matrix reacts to these changes. Algorithmic Processes Systematic Throughout We utilise proprietary algorithmic screening, with a high degree of automation, to analyse the global equity universe, monitor our Clients' Portfolios, and identify new opportunities. Furthermore, we use algorithmic execution tools when buying and selling our clients' portfolios, where appropriate. Qualitative Rationale Deeper Understanding Driven by deep analysis of balance sheets and employing further levels of qualitative analysis, results in a thorough understanding of the companies we invest in. We consider factors, such as; the mix of Goodwill and Intangibles to Net Equity, tracking deviations from recognized Accounting Standards and taking a broader view of the global economic landscape. Robust Returns, less Risk Better Together The combination of quantitative systematic analysis, overlaid with qualitative reviews and active management within clearly defined parameters, results in an investment model which is both robust and not easy to replicate. Stable returns are achieved by taking less investment risk, at higher valuations. Investment Process "We believe that an uncompromising investment process is a key component in delivering consistent returns."