JOLTS & CMBS warning signs / JPN 30y 3.3% ATH #JPY/ FED Sep fully priced / French vote risk / Trump, Putin, Xi
- Stéphan
- Sep 4
- 3 min read
JPN 30y yields hit an all time highs near 3.30% yesterday and the JPY is near all time lows, clearly not a good cocktail, something is going to give sooner or later
Market : Trump unhappy with Xi parading with his new friends, FED's Waller now wants a cut in Sep (it is now pretty much 100pct expected and priced), JOLTS : construction quits & leading indicator at levels not seen GFC (FRED chart available on request), the delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SPIKED to 11.7%, an all time highs, global yields off slightly yesterday (weak US data), fiscal risk going global is 'the' risk from here on and its implication on politics, risk assets, budgets etc
Tragedy has struck Lisbon’s funicular railway
PARIS — French politics are so paralyzed that the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron — an idea once only whispered in the corridors of power — is now being openly debated
Xi Jinping — flanked by Putin and Kim — speaks of choice between war and peace at huge parade. Event marking 80 years since Japan's defeat in WWII meant to project China's military, diplomatic power
GOLD : record highs again, but why ? the rise in prices reflects more than just commodity movements—it offers insight into broader shifts in the global financial system. These record highs highlight how foreign central banks and investors are reshaping/have reshaped their risk management strategies, particularly around currencies and government bonds
Putin: We have always opposed Ukraine becoming a NATO member, but we have never objected to its membership in the EU
#RBA Australia’s central bank chief signals fewer rate cuts if spending persists
GS: We see risks arising that can create an environment where commodity prices rise, while equity and bonds sell off, much like in 2022
Houston-based ConocoPhillips says it will reduce workforce by 20-25%
Trump: harder to win ai race against China without tariffs
Fewest murders in London in summer since 2018
Apple - said to be developing AI-powered web search tool “World Knowledge Answers,” may use Google’s Gemini for Siri AI
Nick Timiraos on X: "Job openings fell in July to the lowest level since September 2024, holding the 3-month average close to 7.4 million openings. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers edged just below 1 for the first time since early 2021. https://t.co/9CghdR9hZ1" / X
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS: We see risks arising that can create an environment where commodity prices rise, while equity and bonds sell off, much like in 2022. https://t.co/34qBYhwEu2" / X
(1) CALL TO ACTIVISM on X: "🚨MAJOR BREAKING: Donald Trump has shattered 50 YEARS of U.S. foreign policy - and the world is now more dangerous than ever. It’s official: Trump has pushed Russia, North Korea, and even India - the largest democracy on Earth - into China’s arms. Today, for the world to see, https://t.co/dOZiaf80xa" / X
(1) Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Putin: We have always opposed Ukraine becoming a NATO member, but we have never objected to its membership in the EU. Every country has the right to choose its own security system, this also applies to Ukraine, but not at the expense of another country’s security. 1/ https://t.co/QmVnKpLouR" / X
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