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China bans iPhone use for Government Officials at work....and strangely enough : A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China. SMIC, China's top chipmaker, has manufactured a 7-nanometer processor for Huawei's Mate 60 Pro—despite US chip sanctions against China Crude tests November 2022 highs after OPEC/Russia extend supply cut to Dec 2023 The Treasury market looks to be pricing in the 'old normal' interest rates, ie a world where bond yields need to be beyond what short-term yields imply..this would be a Very bumpy ride and look/feel very unusualformany, particularly with market structure, supply, TGA etc, which makes it very hard to work out for many German Industrial Orders fell by 11.7% vs 4% expected With oil prices rising again, investors are starting to worry again about even higher long-term bond yields ahead + supply is huge over next few months (known known but still) Wie viel teurer wird er Strom in deiner Gemeinde? Trouve le prix d'electricité dans ton village pour 2023 - link ci-dessous ARM is seeking up to a $52 billion valuation in its blockbuster U.S. IPO Saudi to extend voluntary cut of 1m B/D until end of Dec 2023, Russia too 300K B/D Fed Governor Waller agrees the central bank can 'proceed carefully' on interest rates and Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemploymen ECB’s Knot Says Markets may underestimate September hike chance, he is an 'über hawk' so he would say this, only 6bp priced in for next meeting, clearly would be huge surprise if they did hike, unlikely though JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises Japan's Matsuno says watching FX moves with high sense of urgency, more than words will be needed top turn JPY, including YCC change etc BBG - China is considering introducing a law that would ban the wearing of clothes that "hurt the feelings" of others. Perpetrators could face fines or even jail....seriously?! BMW, Mercedes launch biggest EV push yet to catch Tesla with new models Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced (one of the many reasons why rents went through the rood of late, specifically in towns..) Markets : A lot of Central Bank meetings in september USDollar remsin strong(er), with yields high/er) for longer, even USDCHF look to finally be joining it topside! USDJPY could and should get a little bumpy from here though with BoJ behind the scenes, thus look to sell a bit of CROSSJPY's on risk off days.. Equity markets drifting down, it was and still is time for a 'hedging trade' Crude higher, can we get to 95-100$ ? this won't help inflationary pressures! US Bond Bulls Are Too Optimistic as Yields Inch Back Up, AlphaSimplex Says - Bloomberg Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemployment (msn.com) De-Dollarization: US Risks Losing Tool Used to Fight Past Economic Crises (businessinsider.com) Chip design firm Arm seeks up to $52 billion valuation in blockbuster U.S. IPO (cnbc.com) Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz check out prices of electricity in your Gemeinde for next year ! Oil prices spike as Saudi Arabia, Russia extend 1.3 million barrel a day oil cut through December (qz.com) A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China (qz.com) China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials at Work (msn.com) Enrique Tarrio: Former Proud Boys leader jailed for 22 years over US Capitol Attack | Evening Standard North Korea hackers stole crypto to fund nuclear program: TRM, Chainalysis (cnbc.com) Clashes erupt in Sweden's third largest city after another Quran burning. At least 3 are detained | Watch (msn.com) strewth! Singapore seizes millions in Credit Suisse, Julius Baer accounts (theedgesingapore.com) They started with local banks, now onto foreign banks.. BMW, Mercedes launch biggest electric vehicle push yet to catch Tesla (cnbc.com) How China became king of new nuclear power, how U.S. could catch up (cnbc.com) europe? UK ? Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced | Airbnb | The Guardian CABLE working it's way down still - above 1.275+ on close and it will look 'wrong' and painful for £ shorts

U.S. deficit explodes even as economy grows. A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time >>> pretty insane spending still ongoing!! budget deficit eating into the entire economy, with debt payments set to soar higher still, as private sectors feels the pain too, this is not sustainable NFP : to confirm NFP was not weak last Friday, headline and revisions maybe, but 35K job losses were down to Yellow going down because of awful management, not slowing economy, the Urate was up on more folks re-entering the labor market, which is a positive sign and ISM data suggested manufacturing actually starting to accelerate which is a good sign ! Caixin services PMI data which slipped from 54.1 in July to 51.8 in Aug Dreaming of life on a remote island? Ireland will pay you almost $100,000 to move to one The EU is running out of other people’s money. The bloc’s rampant spending has a catch – no one is willing to foot the bill Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says. Spain weakening too : Spanish HCOB Services PMI Aug: 49.3 (exp 51.5; prev 52.8), Spanish HCOB Composite PMI Aug: 48.6 (exp 50.9; prev 51.7), similar picture around EU Putin says he won’t renew the grain deal until the West meets his demands. The West says it has Speculation is mounting the European Central Bank will shrink its bond portfolio at a quicker pace to ensure it keeps financing conditions tight as the end of its rate-hiking cycle approaches. Markets pricing showing the ECB is almost done lifting borrowing costs as evidence of the economic damage inflicted by tighter monetary policy builds up. But with longer-term real rates failing to rise in response this year, analysts at ING, Mizuho and few others suggesting the ECB will focus on shrinking its bond holdings at a faster pace RBA extended rate pause / kept interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent for the third month straight, but has flagged further increases may be needed to ensure inflation remains under control (data dependent) but ''prices of many services are rising briskly, rent inflation is also elevated'' Morgan Stanley says China is 'overinvested,' but India's the opposite U.S : 45% Drop in Home Purchases – Bigger than 2008, home sales are now down 31% in 2023 U.S Savings rate back down to 3.5%. Keep in mind that's *with* money markets offering a "risk free" 5% Markets : Bonds had their usual 'bid' into month-end (+China measures) helping equity markets and a slightly softer USD AUD weakened on weaker Chinese data and unch. RBA. USD lost ground into month-end, and is recovering on stronger US data (NFP and ISM), while services ISM coming in softer no win EU and China, MXN a little softer (crowded long MXN out there?), USDCNH back 7.30+ too Crude stays firm, a move towards $95 WTI not unconceivable ! Equity markets rallied into month-end...and slowly giving ground again, ''time for a hedging trade'' again. SPX500 ''perfect correction back to trendline'' to resell and of course the US debt ceiling drama coming up this month - again U.S. debt is growing as possible government shutdown looms - The Washington Post Wall of Corporate Debt to Spark Recession in 2024, Fidelity International Says (yahoo.com) Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA FX Daily: Economic resilience keeps dollar ‘expensive’ | Article | ING Think De-Dollarization: USD 'Losing Some Influence' in the Oil Markets, Per JPM (businessinsider.com) The EU is running out of other people’s money (telegraph.co.uk) Germany is the 'sick man of Europe' — and it's causing a shift to the right, top economist says (cnbc.com) Europe’s Real Rates Fuel Speculation Over Faster ECB Bond Runoff - Bloomberg Bank of England's 'regrettable' mistakes fuelled inflation, its former top economist says | Business News | Sky News They all made a huge mistake, to print for far too long, even when inflation was evident!! Student loan payments restart in October — four changes to expect (cnbc.com) Wall Street Silver on X: "Real Estate Industry in Panic Mode: 45% Drop in Home Purchases – Bigger Than '08! Home sales are now down 31% in 2023. Without transactions, many jobs that are commission oriented are seeing huge declines in incomes. Real estate agents, mortgage brokers, title insurance, home… https://t.co/PfIMwaQ7X2" / X (twitter.com) Frederik Ducrozet on X: "🇪🇺 3-year consumer inflation expectations edged up in July, based on the ECB's CES (led by Germany and Italy). Actual inflation is coming down, but it has been too high for too long. Expect the ECB to err on the hawkish side to prevent any de-anchoring of expectations. https://t.co/GgzfOqf8tr" / X (twitter.com) Singapore workers adopting AI skills at the fastest pace: LinkedIn (cnbc.com) Dreaming of life on a remote island? Ireland might be the answer (cnbc.com) Tempted !!? Putin says he won't renew the grain deal until the West meets his demands. The West says it has | AP News Ukraine war: Kim Jong Un 'to visit Putin for weapons talks' - BBC News Morgan Stanley calls China 'overinvested', but India is underinvested (cnbc.com) Return to Work Mandates Are Ridiculous and Cruel (businessinsider.com) thoughts ? SPX500 - perfect correction, resell

WTI rising to $85, no coincidence it is the 4th consecutive week of growth in the US SPR and Saudi cuts in production Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises US AUGUST ISM FACTORY INDEX RISES TO 47.6 FROM 46.4; EST. 47 - BBG *US AUGUST ISM PRICES-PAID INDEX RISES TO 48.4 FROM 42.6, stronger, Construction Spending 0.7%, Exp. 0.5%, Last 0.6%, and NFP a little stronger than expected too (back to normal levels, after a frantic turnover last 2-3years), Fed's Mester was also a little more hawkish earlier, and just like that 10's UST turned around from 4.05 to current 4.18 in the long-end (supply..) Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown >> just as...US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion ECB’s Wunsch cites persistent inflation to back the need to “do a little bit more” China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S-it will help! >> Xi Vows to Continue Opening Up Market, on Own Terms - Bloomberg The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals - Video below Turkish Inflation Nears 60%, Piling Pressure On Central Bank - BBG UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’. Company said to be eyeing $50bn-$55bn compared with $64bn its owner Softbank stated last month Markets : China wobbled, as usual China reacted and pressed on with plenty of new credit and cuts, U.S risks yet another gov shutdown towards the end of Sep, financial risk far too low, business cycle no more, whole new 'kind' of economy, as few Central Bankers talked about at Jackson Hole, Powell focused on employment. Interest rates likely to remain high for longer, consumer spending clearly depends on strength of job market Crude : highest weekly close in a long while CROSSJPY's rally again together with long-end yields BONDS, steeper curve, long-end struggling, supply etc and more drama on debt ceiling coming Equity markets hanging in there, valuation overall too high, rates to remain high for longer, clear stock picking market, it's not all good or all bad! * U.S markets close today Saudi Crude Oil Exports Plummet as OPEC Giant Slashes Production (yahoo.com) China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S. (cnbc.com) Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown | CNN Politics >>> more drama no doubt Christine Lagarde on inflation: high interest rates 'as long as necessary' | Fortune UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’ | Arm | The Guardian Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises | Business News | Sky News Donald Trump's election fraud trial in Georgia will be livestreamed - BBC News Cant' wait ! Credit Cease? CS to Disappear in 2025 (finews.asia) Covid: When to wear masks as cases rise, new variants emerge in U.S. (cnbc.com) Not again please! Tesla faces competition in Europe as local manufacturers fight back | Fortune Judge withdraws from Medicare drug price case after stock ownership is revealed (cnbc.com) Two Proud Boys members get lengthy prison terms for Capitol attack | US Capitol attack | The Guardian Insider Business on X: "The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals https://t.co/TgP3dRMYGc" / X (twitter.com) thoughts ? have a great start to the week Team PVM

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in August from 49.2 in July, beating analysts' forecasts of 49.3 and marking the highest reading since February. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row, and Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to skip next week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, a snub that’s likely to aggravate strains with India >>India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans, and it could get worse - Wapo and still under 50, but pretty 'punchy' Chicago PMI 48.7, Exp. 44.2, Last 42.8 Surge in Hedge-Fund Treasury shorts hints at rise of Basis Trade - one to keep an eye on over next few weeks clearly ECB's Holzmann: August inflation data a conundrum for the ECB - ''underlying inflation could be expected to remain high for an extended period of time'' >>> high for longer!, Villeroy ''we are quite close to a peak in interest rates but we're far from the point where we could contemplate cuts'' >>> ECB minutes overall talking 'stagflation' in the north (Germany etc)...while this is not the case in the south ! Spanish inflation was a little softer for example.. Japan raises military spending to counter China with more missiles and ships. BoJ Nakanura says Japan is no longer in deflation, but that mindset is yet to be eradicated The U.S economy basically grew at a 2% rate throughout the first half of the year Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal Bostic ''the U.S labor market undergoing a measured cooling'' -- does he know today's number ? (Non-voter though) France's finance minister says multinational food companies Nestle, PepsiCo and Unilever should do more to cut food prices after the government agreed to bigger rollbacks with other producers Russia is the big winner from OPEC+ output cuts. Higher prices have more than offset lower supply, in stark contrast to the situation faced by Riyadh-BBG Sergio Ermotti has no time for nostalgia U.S Funding for the federal government is set to run out on Sept. 30 unless action is taken by Congress, more drama Markets : Bonds had their usual bid- & month-end rally on slightly weaker U.S macro data this week, although core PCE and EU inflation (in particular) were firmer-sticky inflation USDollar mixed no real direction - USDJPY (USDJPY Technical Analysis - Signs of a top are emerging) and CROSSJPY's corrected a little lower (after a big rally last 2months..), MXN which has outperformed markets YTD was a little weaker into fixings Equity markets, August was a game of 2 halves.. initially stronger data pushed yields higher and equity tumbled together with China worries, all got slightly reverses into last 2weeks on softer data and plenty of China actions to support their own economy Saxo : China update : implication of the new policy to lower int rates on outstanding mortgages and other changes : Summary: China's real estate market is a focus of interest. Recent changes in policies on mortgage rates and down payments aim to address challenges. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) introduced these changes on August 31. They reduce interest rates on outstanding mortgages and standardize down payment ratios. Guangzhou and Shenzhen also moved to expand the eligibility of first-home buyer benefits. These changes reflect efforts to stabilize the property market and boost consumption, but their impact on the economy remains relatively modest. Meeting of 26-27 July 2023 (europa.eu) China to cut banks' FX reserve ratio to rein in yuan weakness | Reuters White House asks Congress for short-term funding to avoid shutdown (cnbc.com) Surge in Hedge-Fund Treasury Shorts Hints at Rise of Basis Trade (yahoo.com) Stock Market Outlook: S&P 500 Will Rally Next Month and Retest 2023 High (businessinsider.com) - Lee is pretty much always bullish, but there you go, why not ! this will push valuations and SP7 etc to new stretched levels - Having said all this, July spending came from US Savings!..the savings rate 'collapsed'' from 4.3% to 3.5% in July, lowest since Nov 22, and biggest drop since Jan 22 France accuses Unilever and Nestle of refusing to lower prices (msn.com) Japan raises military spending to counter China with more missiles and ships | Financial Times (ft.com) Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal (euobserver.com) and they going up in Scotland despite council apposition Sanquhar turbines approved despite council opposition - BBC News Second quarter GDP revised down to 2.1% from 2.4% | Fortune Stubborn euro inflation is a fresh headache for the Bank of England | Evening Standard Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans, and it could get worse - The Washington Post ...which should hardly be a surprise given higher interest rates! but the lag effect could suddenly bite hard.. Families welcome plan to force offenders into dock after Lucy Letby case - BBC News Gabon coup: This should not be mistaken for people power | World News | Sky News Few Russians wanted the war in Ukraine – but they won’t accept a Russian defeat either | Anatol Lieven | The Guardian North Korea says it simulated nuclear attack on South, rehearsed occupation | The Hill let's hope it's all fakenews! UK house prices fall by most since 2009, Nationwide says | Reuters Good news for would be buyers! China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row - BBC News India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter (qz.com) Russia Is the Big Winner From OPEC+ Output Cuts - Bloomberg Ukraine turns the tables on Moscow as drone attacks increase (cnbc.com) Peter Navarro Lashes Out After Losing 'Executive Privilege' Claim in Court (newsweek.com) UBS Slows Digitalization After Significant Cyberattack (finews.asia) Sergio Ermotti Has No Time for Nostalgia (finews.asia) Meanwhile somewhere in America :-) Police pull over car with huge bull in passenger seat. - BBC News If you were waiting to resell/rehedge some NQ exposure - it should be around here

PVM take on UBS earnings report below French consumer prices reached a 12-month inflation rate of 5.7%, up from 5.1% in July, Portugal comes in at 5.3% vs 4.3% prior, EU data out shortly, EU 5.3% YoY Euro zone growth is weaker than predicted just a few months ago but this does not automatically void the need for more rate hikes, especially as markets are undoing some of the European Central Bank's work, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said Military coups were a regular occurrence in parts of Africa in the decades after independence. But after a period of relative democratic stability, there are indications they are on the rise/Gabon now China manuf index rose to 49.7 (more than expected), while non manuf slightly down to 51 Japanese ministers eat Fukushima fish to show it's safe after nuclear plant wastewater is discharged BoE's Pill: MPC emphasis is on sufficiently restrictive, No room for complacency on inflation, The squeeze on our consumption and living standards from rising mortgage rates won’t reach peak till at least the end of 2025. This is a new world, which will persist through the next general election Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic laid out a case on Thursday against any further U.S. interest rate hikes, saying monetary policy is already tight enough to bring inflation back down to 2% over a "reasonable" period Apple has set Sept. 12 as the date for its biggest product-upgrade event of the year, when it’s set to unveil the iPhone 15 line and next-generation smartwatches Amazon CEO in warning to staff who defy return-to-office policy Markets : NVDA closes on all time highs, sky is the limit looking at forecasters ! UST yields slightly softer on U.S GDP and ADP payrolls, 'peak rates' narratives underpinning markets UST 2y is down about 20bps this week, on softer data, taking the Nov pricing out, let's see how low core PCE comes in at this afternoon, and payrolls tomorrow important too >>> On a YoY basis, rents suggest that CPI Shelter growth should slow significantly in the coming months USDollar, should soften a little on weaker macro and thus 'softer yields', the supply issue of bonds over next few months is big, although a known known! Equity markets more or less took back most of the early August weakness, on this softer data or 'goldilocks' moment as some seems to already be talking about (more about short-term positioning IMHO >>> ECB's Schnabel and this week EU inflation data is jumping back up, which is a worry... stagflation! ’Peak rates’ narrative continues to underpin momentum | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Gabon coup: The latest in a series of military takeovers on the continent - BBC News Ousting of Gabon's unpopular leader was a 'smokescreen' for soldiers to seize power, analysts say | AP News The PVM take on UBS (recall we did predict that CS would not survive without Swiss Govt support on CNBC in August 2022) : UBS Q2 whilst the headline results are as expected, even fully writing off the CS goodwill to reduce the overall Q2 profits. On the balance sheet, whilst adding USD 30.2 bn to retained earnings, they also took on CS's USD 175bn of debt which has had the effect of increasing their leverage from 3.55x to 4.1x, so they definitely need to focus on reducing debt and this is why the Q3 outlook is weak. Overall a fantastic result though. The full integration of CS over time will reduce the cost to income ratio, significantly expanding profitability Markets may have undone some of the ECB's work: Schnabel (yahoo.com) Fed's Bostic says U.S. interest rates are high enough (yahoo.com) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🇺🇸 #Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead - #Fed's Powell "if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well" "We will continue to watch the market rent data closely" https://t.co/IgMWaHQBqS https://t.co/RfGHxKUap6" / X (twitter.com) China economy: Factory activity in August shrinks for a fifth month (cnbc.com) China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (msn.com) For decades, China powered its economy by investing in factories, skyscrapers and roads. The model sparked an extraordinary period of growth that lifted China out of poverty and turned it into a global giant whose export prowess washed across the globe. Now the model is broken. China says drop in trade with U.S. is direct consequence of U.S. moves (cnbc.com) US Senate's McConnell freezes up for second time in public appearance | Reuters Japanese ministers eat Fukushima fish to show it's safe after nuclear plant wastewater is discharged (qz.com) Avoiding catastrophe, Florida's Gulf Coast begins cleanup from Hurricane Idalia | Reuters Giuliani loses Georgia election worker defamation suit by default, judge rules | The Hill Shipping breezes back to the future with wind-powered sails - Positive News Let's hope this is realistic ! if so this is great Amazon CEO in warning to staff who defy return-to-office policy - The Irish News Electrified models help power UK car production up by almost a third | Business News | Sky News In pictures: Rare blue supermoon captured in East Midlands - BBC News SPX500 4525 key res, DAX 16K etc 'softer data' could well bring back some top side momentum

Spanish core CPI rises to 6.1% YoY (est was 6.0%), Germany's Brandenburg Aug CPI 7.1% YoY vs 6.3% JOLTs Job Openings decreased from 9.582 million in June to 8.827 million in July and the Conf Board Consumer Confidence declined from 117 in July to 106.1 in August (>>2y UST yields dropped about 10-15bps to current 4.92%) >> The JOLTS report missed analyst estimates by a wide margin, highlighting the negative impact of rising interest rates -biggest 3-month drop in US job openings on record, Powell talked about employment 15x last Friday.. next up ADP, PCE and NFP US wants to work with China to address concerns such as climate change, AI, fentanyl crisis, said US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo when meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, its board member Naoki Tamura said on Wed, signalling the chance of an end to negative interest rates early 2024 Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation: ‘We’re not gonna back down’ Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens Russia targets Kyiv with the biggest overnight missile attack since the spring Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension' First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC Germany : In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster/Welt FDIC plans to boost oversight on US midsized lenders : The FDIC plans to boost oversight of US midsized lenders and require them to better prepare for potential failures. Banks with as little as $100 billion in assets will have to issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses in times of severe stress. However, only the largest and most-complex firms will be subject to total loss-absorbing capacity requirements, or TLAC Markets : Bad news (JOLTS and consumer confidence) was good news for markets y'day, NQ in particular, oversold levels in markets gone in short-term ! just like this USD dipped initially and should continue softer, IF next sets of data show similar signs of slowdown... CROSSJPY's closing in on higher levels again into month-end, metals rallied further, Silver charts all out again with that potential big break up Bonds moved a bit but honestly the deciders coming up now with ADP, PCE and NFP >>> UST supply will remain huge over next couple of months! Sticky Spanish and German inflation lift investor bets on ECB rate rise | Financial Times Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Raimondo meets Chinese officials as countries seek more stable relationship (cnbc.com) Technical analysis UBS indicators sending signs of trend exhaustion | Saxo Group (home.saxo) David Rosenberg on X: "To see a JOLTS report show declines in openings, hires and quits and an increase in layoffs is a 4 SD event. It has happened the grand total of 4% of the time in the past and just 2% when the economy was not in a recessionary state (maybe it is!)." / X (twitter.com) it's 1 data, let's see if it's backed up by ADP, PCE and NFP .. 17 Billionen Euro Schulden: In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster - WELT BOJ policymaker signals chance of policy tweak early next year | Reuters Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens | Reuters Meta disrupts Chinese misinformation network linked to law enforcement (cnbc.com) Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension' - BBC News First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC (cnbc.com) No-Mercy-UBS: Ü50 landen im Uetlihof auf Strasse - Inside Paradeplatz was ever so.. German economic policy has gone stark raving mad (telegraph.co.uk) German economic policy is a clutter of contradictions and misguided shibboleths. The coalition government is offering exorbitant subsidies to profitable American and Asian semiconductor companies at a cost of €3.3m (£2.8m) per job, radically departing from Germany’s ordoliberal traditions of market primacy. Russia's War in Ukraine: Kyiv Hit in Biggest Strike in Months - Bloomberg Russia’s kamikaze drones raining down on Ukraine's east - BBC News Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation: ‘We’re not gonna back down’ | The Hill --- more details here Jon Cooper on X: "🚨BREAKING: The federal government just identified the first 10 medications that will be subject to direct price negotiations with pharmaceutical manufacturers, as part of a major new initiative to reduce prescription drug costs in Medicare. The list includes a pair of… https://t.co/GQHyd8m09l" / X (twitter.com) County in China offers cash 'reward' for newlywed couples if bride is aged 25 and under | World News | Sky News a bit desperate! have a great day Team PVM

Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years Brazil and China are strengthening their trade ties with a massive corn deal in 2023. Brazil is set to export 5 million tonnes of corn to China Jackson Hole recap: Fed rate hikes likely on hold for ‘several meetings’ - ''high for longer'', though Powell clearly emphasized on the tightness of the labour market keeping the economy going, so employment data key, anything below 200K NFP and the market will shift and bonds rally, at least on the headline, medium term issue of supply still there.. Germany's governing coalition has agreed on a new basic child benefit allowance at an initial cost of around 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) from 2025. IW institute cuts GDP forecast, now expects contraction of up to 0.5% for 2023 China & the US agreed to have their commerce ministers meet at least once a year in an effort to improve ties. Gina Raimondo said after meeting with Wang Wentao in Beijing that trade and transparency can stabilize relations, and told her counterpart that the Biden administration had no intention of hindering Chinese economic progress UK : Prices rose 6.9% in the year to August, down from 8.4% in July - BRC >>> The figures do not mean things are getting cheaper, but that prices are increasing at a slower rate than they did previously Shares of Vietnamese EV maker Vinfast surged 21% on Monday, extending a rally from last week that more than quadrupled its market value to $160 billion Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Vladimir Putin will hold talks in Sochi on Sep 4th US housing payment for new homes is now as high as 51% of the median household income, which is the highest since the mid 1980's Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future Markets : Pretty quiet going into month-end..Equity markets globally helped by moves in China (short of long-term impact ?), CROSSJPY's closing August on the highs, USDJPY trades above the levels where BoJ intervened last year. USDCNH 7.30 still no exactly much lower after those interventions this month Bonds 'stable' ahead of PCE and NFP - employment data now pretty key IMHO, sincel Powell mentioned it so many times during his speech in Jackson Hole Chinese equity narrative turns to hope of a turnaround | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) listen and open the charts too PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Dallas Fed respondents: "High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before. In addition to reshoring heavy activity, supply-chain issues, lack of qualified labor and interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates and give confidence to the industrial segments to plan growth." (Dallas may not be whole reflection of the U.S, but there you go) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Brazil May Export 5 million Tonnes of Corn To China in 2023 | Czapp Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years | Czapp Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future (msn.com) German government agrees new 2.4 billion euro basic child allowance (yahoo.com) Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters Number of men in Germany working part-time increases - The Local Price rises in shops at lowest for nearly a year - BBC News Better news, still far too high though China halves stamp duty on stock trades to boost flagging market | Reuters The reaction to the latest move was much more muted than when Beijing last took similar steps, in 2008 Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The importance of this chart cannot be overstated. Investors expecting global inflation to decelerate is the most consensus view in the history of the data, even lower than during the Global Financial Crisis. This is consistent with how market participants are the most bullish… https://t.co/pCvcSSNQ27" / X (twitter.com) Red Cross gifted gold bars left on a Swiss train - SWI swissinfo.ch Who's were they ?! New California city backed by big names in Silicon Valley: report (cnbc.com) Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters Whaooo... is that isn't bubbly ! good for the longs though clearly..2nd largest car Ulez expanded to include whole of outer London - BBC News DAX - correcting back to trendline support line (now resistance)

As expected, Powell rejects any idea that the inflation target would change in his Jackson Hole speech, "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target.". Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down, called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come >>> succeeded, on the ''he didn't want to rock the boat'', no clear guidance one way or another, data dependent IMHO, many commentors saying that the Fed is making a mistake in hiking rates too high and too fast etc (they may well be wrong eventually, for the record think 'high for longer' is right , no more 'how fast and how high'.... the real mistake was to stick to 'transitory inflation' for far too long and still printing, increasing money supply by about 50% in 2-3years and buying MBS in the middle of a bubbly housing market EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force Urs Rohner, the former chairman of the major Swiss bank served as chairman of Savoy Hotel Baur en Ville owned by Credit Suisse Saudi trade with China and India reached record of $175bn in 2022, it was barely $5bn in 2001, long-term geopolitics, BRICS+++ "GS index gamma is the shortest ever in their data set. GS estimate that dealers will need to sell -$2.5B worth of gamma per every 1% move lower (or vice versa)."This is a market exacerbator, not a muting factor". But it of course works both ways.... China scrapped the last of its Covid travel requirement measures China's Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status."/Thread Evergrande stock plunged 90% on Monday, as it reopened for trading after 17months suspension, which (at least partly) explains the sudden decision for China to reduce tax on stocks trading by half ? and local markets on multi year lows, contrarians ? SNB total sight deposits week to 25th Aug CHF 471.4 bn vs CHF 476.2 bn prior Markets : Bonds initially sold-off a little during Powell speech, and pretty much closed unch USDollar slightly firm(er), not a whole lot in it ! Equity markets liked the light end of day bond rally off lows, not a whole lot in it either, technically we getting back into 'sell or hedge territories' - perhaps after Aug month-end flows. The China tax move is probably only worth a very short--term bounce. NVDA given up most of the 'earnings' blip Month-end flows to dominate early part of the week, which ends with NFP Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down (yahoo.com) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "You can't make this up: The S&P 7, a handful of technology stocks, are now up an incredible 54% this year. 3 weeks ago, the S&P 7 was up a massive 70%. Meanwhile, the remaining S&P 493 is up just 4%. These same stocks have accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gain this… https://t.co/T6gwTDmT8q" / X (twitter.com) same olde point, nice chart for perspective Biden policies pushing Middle East closer to China and Russia, says US senator | Middle East Eye édition française How America's biggest retailers will use tech to catch retail theft (cnbc.com) The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force (yahoo.com) How a U.S. steel shortage created a market bubble (cnbc.com) Ships wait at Asian ports as retailers struggle to shift excess stock (cnbc.com) Argentina is pushing international lending to its breaking point (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status." @ZichenWanghere https://t.co/MS2HdHzKVE" / X (twitter.com) China Evergrande’s Stock Plunges 87% As Trading Resumes After 17 Months (forbes.com) Robin Brooks on X: "Argentina vs Turkey 1. Argentina and Turkey are at opposite ends of the planet, but have many bad things in common. Turkish Lira was kept artificially strong until the May 28 election, after which it collapsed (orange). Argentina's Peso collapsed after the Aug 13 primary (white). https://t.co/1PdGlosrRe" / X (twitter.com) Heineken sells off Russian beer business for €1 - BBC News Long been written off, suspect many foreign firms will have to do the same.. Urs Rohner Loses Prestigious Credit Suisse Mandate (finews.asia) "CS Schweiz wird integriert, ihr Name verschwindet" - Videos - Inside Paradeplatz How Ulez became a vigilante battleground | The Independent UK financial firms ‘may be lending over £174m a month to at-risk gamblers’ | Gambling | The Guardian How soaring cost of car insurance driving motorists to sell up | The Independent must admit... many young drivers seeing their ins up between 50 and 100%, yes, it's true Karl Rove hits Ramaswamy for ‘over-the-top’ debate performance that was ‘robotic’ | The Hill Long way to go Greek police arrest dozens for arson as EU’s largest-ever wildfires rage (msn.com) this is nuts NVIDIA - reversal off those highs on earnings, clearly no shareholder wants it to test much below 400bucks! or the end of May gap is at risk of being filled !

Jackson Hole meeting : all about the r*, all eyes and ears on J Powell who speaks at 1600 CET, Lagarde not until 2100 CET, for choice and since many of you asking, imho 'high for longer' is going to be the message (as opposed to systematically higher till something breaks..), wouldn't be shocked if Lagarde is a little 'dovish', after all these PMI sub 50.. WSJ-Timaraos's latest : The Fed's Jackson Hole conference sometimes gets treated as the Super Bowl of central banking when it might be better characterized as "nirvana for nerds" given the wonky paper discussions Atlanta Fed GDPnow for Q3 is 5.91% Fed's Harker : favoured remaining on hold for longer in two different interviews with MNI and CNBC yesterday Rosenblatt raised its price target on NVDA to a Wall Sreet high of $1,100 (from $800), and maintaining its buy rating. $1100 would put NVDA on par to MSFT! UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decade. More than 4,000 operators become insolvent within a year as cost inflation and housebuilding slowdown bite TRY rallies as Turkey 'stuns' markets with the biggest rate hike in years!, the CB hiked by 750bps, USDTRY dropped from 27.5 to 25.5 approx, back to 26.50 TRY again JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right”, 'investing in the oil and gas complex is good for reducing CO2' Highly likely' Prigozhin is dead but no 'definitive proof, says UK defence ministry Markets : SPX500 - NQ ''reversal'' in many short-term minds and comments this morning, few realized that 100 PE on NVDA was a little too rich, see Thread below too ! After a spectacular move in NQ and NVDA this year... so all needs to be put in relative terms...slightly overhyped price action in 2023 IMHO, that huge beat : mostly 'priced in' USDollar slightly stronger, UST 10's 5bp higher to 4.25 again, 2y back to 5% all about the r* Copper, metals recovering last few days, PALL futures now have the largest net spec short position on record Didn't Get Invited to Fed's Mountain Retreat? Here's What to Watch (msn.com) MS : The title this year is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. While Fed Chairs have sometimes moved mkts at Jackson Hole, Seth Carpenter suspects Powell will not signal a major shift. Seth suspects he will try to keep a hawkish tone; reiterate commitment to 2 percent inflation; reinforce the “higher for longer” theme; but refrain from giving explicit near-term guidance. The title of the symposium suggests some discussion of the neutral rate of interest, also called r*. Conceptually, if the policy rate is above r*, then monetary policy is slowing the economy, and if the policy is below r*, it is stimulating the economy. More generally, r* should have implications for debt sustainability, the level of the yield curve, and other asset prices. But in the best of times, estimating r* is hard; in a post-Covid world, it is doubly so. The mkt has to pay attention, of course, because a shift in r* should imply a shift in the exp path for the policy rate and thereby the yield curve as a whole Jackson Hole may well showcase academic research suggesting that r* has risen - we think the Fed is done hiking, but we will only know after the fact if r* has risen Fed Latest: Harker Sees Enough Hikes, Rates Holding in 2023 (yahoo.com) Fukushima: China retaliates as Japan releases treated nuclear water - BBC News JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right' | Fox Business UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decade | Financial Times (ft.com) slow burn of higher rates AND government forcing repayment of covid loans... the big driver Nothing to do with Brexit...??.. Edwin Hayward on X: "More and more stories about problems caused by Brexit are beginning to creep into the RW press. In some cases, it's a flood rather than a trickle! (Long list. Please expand tweet.) All the "Brexit reality" stories below were published within the last month: Express - Labour…" / X (twitter.com) Bath air quality improves since introduction of clean air zone - BBC News I'm not an accountant..! so won't make any comment just watch the slightly 'overhyped' price action this year on #NVDA ... neither long nor short ! Samantha LaDuc on X: "SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝 CoreWeave: Is backed by $NVDA Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA $NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat $NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound…" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: ""“Obviously, we’re following it, but the size of the problem is not yet sufficiently clear,” Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said of China’s economic issues." https://t.co/069uZNol86 via @bpolitics" / X (twitter.com) Pakistan: Drone shows children trapped in cable car dangling over river canyon | World News | Sky News whaoo, watch ! amazing Brady Dougan's Questionable Russia Connection (finews.asia) Ukraine latest: 'Highly likely' Prigozhin is dead but no 'definitive proof', says UK defence ministry | World News | Sky News India and China agree to 'de-escalate' border tensions - BBC News Greece wildfires: 79 people arrested for arson - BBC News Madness, why would anyone do this.. Trump Ends X Hiatus With Mugshot and Call for Money (newsweek.com) need to raise a lot of cash to pay for those court appearances?.. made a complete mockery of the justice system? Reinventing the wheel (or the sail) can actually change an industry - CityAM have a great Friday and lovely weekend ahead Team PVM

Nvidia's blowout results are exciting analysts so much, one of them even said the AI chipmaker will be 'most important company to civilization' BRICS growing - Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are invited to join the BRICS WSJ-Timiraos : Last year, Jackson Hole was about the lessons of Volcker. But for the second part of the Fed's inflation fight, some former Fed officials say Greenspan might offer the template. The debate is slowly moving from "how high" to "how long" >>> ''high for longer'', next tightening can and should come from Fed balance-sheet reduction “My sense is he keeps it pretty brief,” BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder''says on the outlook for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, later adding: “I think we’re basically at the end of this hiking cycle.” Russia offers to swap frozen assets with the west, that's the financial equivalent of a prisoner's exchange ! Yevgeny Prigozhin trod a dangerous tightrope - his apparent death proves no one is indispensable India is replacing Russia as a 21st-century space power. The Chandrayaan-3 Moon landing is the latest sign of the new geopolitics of space EU PMI all under 50 yesterday, UK much weaker and even the U.S much weaker, services running out of steam ! >>> stagflation and/or some sort of China deflationary bust ! though China trying to stop the rot and pumping Brazil's real, not the dollar, could be the solution to Argentina's currency turmoil, an economist says US workers demand at least $78K to start a new job, according to a NY Fed employment survey ECB QT continues, balance sheet shrank to €7,153bn, lowest level since Mar2021 The UK's steel exports to the European Union risk being hit with a climate surcharge. It's after Rishi Sunak's government made it cheaper for companies to emit carbon dioxide, potentially erecting another post-Brexit trade barrier with the EU UBS on Sullivan criticizing China for halting publication of economic data: "The US is not blameless either. Underfunding statistical agencies has contributed to a decline in US data quality — fewer than half the companies asked provide data for non-farm payrolls" Markets : UST 10y blow out to 4.35 on supply risk and ahead of JH, back to 4.20% - let's see what JPowell has to say, more a focus of 'high for longer' imho, not how high can we go USDCNH about 1pct off highs from last week, AUD attempts to rally (CHINA worries perhaps overdone in shot-term and various support legally thrown to the economy now), EURCHF got close to 0.9500 yesterday again Metals shining last few days again, GOLD, XAG, XPT, Copper etc all recovering (chart), industrial metals reacting to recent China moves to support economy NASDAQ : that's one of the more symmetrical move below the 50dma (chart - by he book), the bears might resell this NVDA rip, pretty impressive though it has to be said ! all this ahead of Jackson Hole Nvidia's blowout results are exciting analysts so much, one of them even said the AI chipmaker will be 'most important company to civilization' (yahoo.com) Remember that Druckenmiller interview..he and many others had a good day yesterday! FX Update: Jackson Hole scenarios | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: US treasury yields have cranked higher, with the long end of the US yield curve even posting new decade-plus highs in yields. The JPY is playing its usual hyper-sensitive role to yield developments, with EURJPY even posting a new post-2008 high today before retreating sharply today as bonds found a bid. But the yield and yen moves are merely a distraction ahead of a possibly critical message from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday. American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job (cnbc.com) TIPS Have Erased Most of 2023 Gains; 30-Year TIPS Auction on Thursday Key Test - Bloomberg 20y auction went 'ok' last night Emerging markets group BRICS invites 6 new members, including Saudi Arabia and Iran (cnbc.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Last year, Jackson Hole was about the lessons of Volcker. But for the second part of the Fed's inflation fight, some former Fed officials say Greenspan might offer the template. The debate is slowly moving from "how high" to "how long" https://t.co/1ip1wsadcl" / X (twitter.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "In case you missed it: #ECB QT continues w/balance sheet shrank to €7,153bn, lowest level since Mar2021. Total assets now equal to 53% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 30%, BoE's 33% and BoJ's 126%. https://t.co/ykK4s9AOrT" / X (twitter.com) Brazil's Real, Not USD, May Be the Answer to Argentina FX Woes: Economist (businessinsider.com) India is replacing Russia as a 21st-century space power (qz.com) Shareholders of Smaller Chinese Banks Hike Stakes to Stem Risk (yicaiglobal.com) Twelve small and mid-sized Chinese banks have been given the go-ahead to make changes in their shareholders’ stakes this month to fortify risk management. Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low as interest rates soar (cnbc.com) Strapped For Cash, More Americans Are Making Early Withdrawals From Their Retirement Savings (forbes.com) British Museum bosses first alerted to thefts in 2021 - BBC News strewth! UK-India trade talks enter 'final, trickier' stage - government sources - BBC News ''we are 95% done...the last 5% is always harder than the first 95%..'' We need a strategy to stop the City’s slow puncture (msn.com) Russia's VTB open to swaps as it seeks to reclaim $10 bln in frozen assets | Reuters Yevgeny Prigozhin trod a dangerous tightrope - his apparent death proves no one is indispensable | World News | Sky News all sorts of conspiracy theory out there, once the 'coup' failed, his days were counted imho Greece investigating whether organised arson groups to blame for deadly wildfires | World News | Sky News NASDAQ Copper prices on the rise again it seems, though broadly speaking pretty rangy really

BRICS summit 2023 - Day 2 >>> FT- 'Bridges with everyone’: how Saudi Arabia and UAE are positioning themselves for power, “The fundamental strategic dilemma for them remains that their security is in the west, their energy politics is with Russia and their prosperity is increasingly with China and the rest of Asia, they sell oil globally.. Today's 20-year US Treasury notes and Thursday’s 30-year TIPS auctions might be pivotal ahead of Jackson Hole on Friday, banks softer yesterday on S&P downgrade, Citi on lows, though UBS has had a great time since that CS takeover, all eyes and ears on NVDA tonight FED's Barkin : consumer spending, economic strength make it possible U.S economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools, if inflation remains high and demand gives 'no signal' it is likely to drop, that would require tighter monetary policy Eurozone services PMI flash 48.3 (forecasts 50.5..) - weaker than expected, ECB hike expectations softer, euro softer. UK economy also softer, as per PMI surveys, pretty significant downturn down to 47.9 (rates biting hard..) Goldman says oil stock draws cut bearish risk to Brent price MACY'S: ".. “we experienced an increased rate of delinquencies .. the speed at which the increase occurred for us and the broader credit card industry since our first quarter earnings call was faster than planned. .. We're working closely with our bank partner Citibank to mitigate the rising bad debts by adjusting underwriting strategies." BASF signs long-term LNG deal with Cheniere of the US. German companies are rushing to ink agreements with American exporters after the country abandoned Russian gas U.S existing home sales slide to lowest rate since 2010 Markets : EURO lower, EURJPY notably topped out again 158+ area, EURUSD sub 1.0850 key support area of late, as market 'pares ECB wagers' on Sep hike, now 50/50 for the 25bps hike and EURCHF nearer to .9500, IMHO ECB could very well pause now in Sep ! GBPUSD best not break below 1.2600 area for the rare £ bulls out there ! Equity markets awaiting NVDA after the bell today, main indices, sentiment weak but.. the UST auctions will matter over next few days ahead of Jackson Hole, there has been big anticipation last 10days... slight recovery in bond prices helping Eq Crude struggling to hold $80+ WTI Metals showing a little big of life again off last week's lows ‘Bridges with everyone’: how Saudi Arabia and UAE are positioning themselves for power | Financial Times (ft.com) BIG long-term geopolitical 'change', BRICS etc etc - must read >>“We will come to you first, but if you don’t deliver we will go elsewhere” -UAE/Saudi to US Gulf nations are reconsidering their ties with US & are forging new alliances in Asia, with Russia countering US in the Gulf, after all they sell OIL globally... Treasury Market Selloff Means 6% Yield ‘Isn’t a Crazy Number’ - Bloomberg “At what point does the economy effectively break under the weight of real rates? I don’t think we’re quite there yet…But I still think the market’s ignoring a lot of this interest-rate pass-through at their own peril.” Who the heck is buying so many Nvidia GPU’s? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) LIVE BLOG: BRICS Summit 2023 Day 2 - Brazilian President Lula da Silva meets with ANC and Thabo Mbeki on sidelines of summit (msn.com) US treasury auctions will test bond markets ahead of Jackson Hole | Saxo Group (home.saxo) S&P downgrades five US banks following Moody’s lead (msn.com) all about funding costs, less profitable etc Powell in a Tight Spot as Policymakers Converge on Jackson Hole (finews.asia) Public firms could be allowed to extract £50bn from staff pension schemes in bid to boost investment (cityam.com) this is not a good idea Nvidia stock hype is out of control, meaning investors may be overlooking this one key risk (yahoo.com) not trying to knock it ! but it has become a must watch meme stock these days, we shall know more tonight after the bell Arm’s IPO filing is riddled with anxieties over China (qz.com) Arm expects to continue recording lower royalty revenues in the Chinese market Swiss watch exports post first monthly decline in two years - SWI swissinfo.ch More Trouble Ahead for the Euro Zone’s Two Biggest Economies - Bloomberg Frederik Ducrozet on X: "🇪🇺 Four takeaways from euro area PMIs. 1. Services sector contraction led by Germany, with early signs of labour market weakening. A sign that monetary policy transmission is working. https://t.co/cdQfRQlBce" / X (twitter.com) PMIs: UK economy slips hard in August as recession warning lights flash - CityAM Goldman says oil stock draws cut bearish risk to Brent price | Reuters Homes more affordable but borrowers stretched by rising mortgage costs - CityAM Hollywood strikes: 'A lose-lose situation' as fears mount over $4 billion economic hit (yahoo.com) Trump attorney Jenna Ellis asks why MAGA PAC isn’t paying for the defense of her, others in Georgia case | The Hill going to be a lot of fun watching all this ! BASF signs long-term LNG deal with Cheniere of the US | Financial Times Pakistan cable car: Videos of extraordinary rescues caught on camera - BBC News Four moments reveal how quickly Hilary floodwater moved - BBC News fast moving! US Existing-Home Sales Slide on Higher Rates, Lean Inventory (yahoo.com) GBPUSD best not break sub 1.2600 area or the few £ bulls left out there will give up ! Jackson Hole and US auctions in the mix though

BRICS meeting bombshell would is Saudi Arabia joined in, the market will notice if they did, if not the whole BRUCS new currency story is just a little story that makes media talk... Ieven if they joined they would still play both sides (West and BRICS) not to upset anyone.. >>> "If we expand BRICS to account for a similar portion of world GDP as the G7, then our collective voice in the world will grow stronger." China official Given the high level of govt debt in the US and others, investors are demanding higher compensation for the risk >>> sounds pretty reasonable ! was always going to be the case once QE finished let alone QT starting, U.S Debt getting pretty expensive, US 10y REAL yield exceeds 2%, highest since 2009 JPowell's message on Friday is most likely to be 'balanced', that is perhaps what many wish, the risk is he talks and acknowledges and sort of gives the ok to 'the' new normal higher for longer-term yields...'' something that has grown in Mr Market's mind last 10days or so with the bond move in the long-end The vice chair of the FOMC recently made quite clear he doesn't think r* has shifted up / Thread from Timiraos below UK property sellers cut asking prices at sharpest pace this year (good news!) German central bank sees the economy stagnating again in the 3rd quarter - AP HSBC just raised NVDA target to $780, highest on the street, earlier in the year, HSBC had the only 'sell rating' and lowest target at $136 Wild image of Chinese EV graveyard Goldman Sachs weighs in on the trajectory of the USD/JPY currency pair, focusing on its correlation with US yields and the potential risks and factors influencing its direction Beijing called Joe Biden's summit with the leaders of South Korea and Japan an "attempt to sow discord" among the Asian nations, claimed the group "smeared and attacked China" on things like Taiwan situation BOJ's Ueda says explained to PM Kishida July tweak to yield control SoftBank's semiconductor unit Arm filed for what is set to be the year’s largest US IPO, a 32y old company.. Moody's is downgrading the credit ratings of 10 small- to mid-sized banks, citing growing financial risks and strains that could erode their profitability. The credit ratings agency also warned it is watching some of the nation's biggest lenders for potential downgrades From Bloomberg: “US 10-year TIPS yields pushed at the 2% level Monday, a psychological barrier not seen since 2009. And it’s not alone. In country after country, inflation-linked bond yields are climbing to new highs.” As to why, the drivers being cited — and no one knows for sure — go from the benign to those implying headwinds for the economy, markets and policies American Airlines pilots ratify a new contract that includes big pay raises and bonuses Pilots at American Airlines have approved a new contract that will raise their pay more than 40% over four years!.. it's the same in many places, very visible to most, get into the public eye and others want the same, naturally, hard not to call it wage spiral! Markets : Equity markets breathed a little from oversold short-term levels, Banks not doing well, in fact Citi closed on lowest levels of 2023, same low levels than the SVB mid March lows, regional bank ETF is basically flat since the SVB blow-up, NVDA rallied strongly ahead of earnings tomorrow after the bell ! TSLA also run up nicely. USD stable to slightly higher, mainly USDJPY., CROSSJPY higher on higher yields globally Bonds, duration hit again ahead of JacksonHole Friday >>> not only is the 10yr UST yield at a 15y highs, but at slightly over 3years, it is also the longest correction of any since the early 80s bond bull market began Moody's downgrades banks over risks. Here are the 10 impacted. (yahoo.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell was reluctant to express a firm view about the level of longer-run interest rates during this exchange on Capitol Hill two months ago. "It's really hard to know" if rates will settle at a higher level than before the pandemic. https://t.co/S8iTvMDeaf" / X (twitter.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "This anticipation doesn't square much (at all?) with recent Fed communications: 1) The vice chair of the FOMC recently made quite clear he doesn't think r* has shifted up. Williams, 5/19/23: "There's no evidence that the era of very low natural rates of interest has ended..." https://t.co/P7OqURYCTm" / X (twitter.com) If not this, then why ? supply IMHO, although to be honest it isn't really new... Goldman Sachs: Assessing the upward trajectory of USD/JPY and its outlook | Forexlive BOJ's Ueda says explained to PM Kishida July tweak to yield control - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) >>> because CB's are totally independent from politics ? A.I. could affect many white-collar, high-paid jobs (cnbc.com) NVDA didn't care yesterday on the HSBC rerating! How Nvidia Built a Competitive Moat Around A.I. Chips - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Global semiconductor investment dips for first time in 4 years - Nikkei Asia Bloomberg TV on X: "Why isn't the Chinese Communist Party doing more to support the economy right now? Read The Big Take: https://t.co/1tMgr1pueD https://t.co/Eh63A9G0TF" / X (twitter.com) well said China’s Abandoned Electric Cars Pile Up After EV Boom Fueled by Subsidies (bloomberg.com) why??!? Finland Bankruptcy Growth Hits Construction, Services - Bloomberg From Finland to the U.S, UK or Germany to China - it's all a very similar script 'Mass killings': Hundreds of migrants killed by Saudi Arabian border guards, human rights group says | ITV News Wagner making ‘Africa even more free’, says Prigozhin in first post-rebellion video | Yevgeny Prigozhin | The Guardian Elon Musk admits X ‘may fail’ after glitch deletes Twitter photos | Twitter | The Guardian what are we going to do without ....twitter! German central bank sees the economy stagnating again in the 3rd quarter | AP News Led By Donkeys on X: "Sit back for 3 mins and let @GavinEsler take you through the water privatisation scandal https://t.co/mN6G23DEoY" / X (twitter.com) what a disgrace this all has been! American Airlines pilots ratify a new contract that includes big pay raises and bonuses - ABC News (go.com)