top of page

Evergrande / SNB sight deposits / NVDA / Jackson Hole : 2way risk, data dependent



  • As expected, Powell rejects any idea that the inflation target would change in his Jackson Hole speech, "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target.". Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down, called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come >>> succeeded, on the ''he didn't want to rock the boat'', no clear guidance one way or another, data dependent

  • IMHO, many commentors saying that the Fed is making a mistake in hiking rates too high and too fast etc (they may well be wrong eventually, for the record think 'high for longer' is right , no more 'how fast and how high'.... the real mistake was to stick to 'transitory inflation' for far too long and still printing, increasing money supply by about 50% in 2-3years and buying MBS in the middle of a bubbly housing market

  • EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force

  • Urs Rohner, the former chairman of the major Swiss bank served as chairman of Savoy Hotel Baur en Ville owned by Credit Suisse

  • Saudi trade with China and India reached record of $175bn in 2022, it was barely $5bn in 2001, long-term geopolitics, BRICS+++

  • "GS index gamma is the shortest ever in their data set. GS estimate that dealers will need to sell -$2.5B worth of gamma per every 1% move lower (or vice versa)."This is a market exacerbator, not a muting factor". But it of course works both ways....

  • China scrapped the last of its Covid travel requirement measures

  • China's Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status."/Thread

  • Evergrande stock plunged 90% on Monday, as it reopened for trading after 17months suspension, which (at least partly) explains the sudden decision for China to reduce tax on stocks trading by half ? and local markets on multi year lows, contrarians ?

  • SNB total sight deposits week to 25th Aug CHF 471.4 bn vs CHF 476.2 bn prior

 
Markets :
  • Bonds initially sold-off a little during Powell speech, and pretty much closed unch

  • USDollar slightly firm(er), not a whole lot in it !

  • Equity markets liked the light end of day bond rally off lows, not a whole lot in it either, technically we getting back into 'sell or hedge territories' - perhaps after Aug month-end flows. The China tax move is probably only worth a very short--term bounce. NVDA given up most of the 'earnings' blip

  • Month-end flows to dominate early part of the week, which ends with NFP

 













Long been written off, suspect many foreign firms will have to do the same..





must admit... many young drivers seeing their ins up between 50 and 100%, yes, it's true


Long way to go


this is nuts


NVIDIA - reversal off those highs on earnings, clearly no shareholder wants it to test much below 400bucks! or the end of May gap is at risk of being filled !



47 views0 comments
bottom of page