U.S. deficit explodes even as economy grows. A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time >>> pretty insane spending still ongoing!! budget deficit eating into the entire economy, with debt payments set to soar higher still, as private sectors feels the pain too, this is not sustainable
NFP : to confirm NFP was not weak last Friday, headline and revisions maybe, but 35K job losses were down to Yellow going down because of awful management, not slowing economy, the Urate was up on more folks re-entering the labor market, which is a positive sign and ISM data suggested manufacturing actually starting to accelerate which is a good sign !
Caixin services PMI data which slipped from 54.1 in July to 51.8 in Aug
Dreaming of life on a remote island? Ireland will pay you almost $100,000 to move to one
The EU is running out of other people’s money. The bloc’s rampant spending has a catch – no one is willing to foot the bill
Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says. Spain weakening too : Spanish HCOB Services PMI Aug: 49.3 (exp 51.5; prev 52.8), Spanish HCOB Composite PMI Aug: 48.6 (exp 50.9; prev 51.7), similar picture around EU
Putin says he won’t renew the grain deal until the West meets his demands. The West says it has
Speculation is mounting the European Central Bank will shrink its bond portfolio at a quicker pace to ensure it keeps financing conditions tight as the end of its rate-hiking cycle approaches. Markets pricing showing the ECB is almost done lifting borrowing costs as evidence of the economic damage inflicted by tighter monetary policy builds up. But with longer-term real rates failing to rise in response this year, analysts at ING, Mizuho and few others suggesting the ECB will focus on shrinking its bond holdings at a faster pace
RBA extended rate pause / kept interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent for the third month straight, but has flagged further increases may be needed to ensure inflation remains under control (data dependent) but ''prices of many services are rising briskly, rent inflation is also elevated''
Morgan Stanley says China is 'overinvested,' but India's the opposite
U.S : 45% Drop in Home Purchases – Bigger than 2008, home sales are now down 31% in 2023
U.S Savings rate back down to 3.5%. Keep in mind that's *with* money markets offering a "risk free" 5%
Markets :
Bonds had their usual 'bid' into month-end (+China measures) helping equity markets and a slightly softer USD
AUD weakened on weaker Chinese data and unch. RBA. USD lost ground into month-end, and is recovering on stronger US data (NFP and ISM), while services ISM coming in softer no win EU and China, MXN a little softer (crowded long MXN out there?), USDCNH back 7.30+ too
Crude stays firm, a move towards $95 WTI not unconceivable !
Equity markets rallied into month-end...and slowly giving ground again, ''time for a hedging trade'' again. SPX500 ''perfect correction back to trendline'' to resell
and of course the US debt ceiling drama coming up this month - again
They all made a huge mistake, to print for far too long, even when inflation was evident!!
thoughts ?
SPX500 - perfect correction, resell
