The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in August from 49.2 in July, beating analysts' forecasts of 49.3 and marking the highest reading since February. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction
China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row, and Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to skip next week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, a snub that’s likely to aggravate strains with India >>India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter
Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans, and it could get worse - Wapo and still under 50, but pretty 'punchy' Chicago PMI 48.7, Exp. 44.2, Last 42.8
Surge in Hedge-Fund Treasury shorts hints at rise of Basis Trade - one to keep an eye on over next few weeks clearly
ECB's Holzmann: August inflation data a conundrum for the ECB - ''underlying inflation could be expected to remain high for an extended period of time'' >>> high for longer!, Villeroy ''we are quite close to a peak in interest rates but we're far from the point where we could contemplate cuts'' >>> ECB minutes overall talking 'stagflation' in the north (Germany etc)...while this is not the case in the south ! Spanish inflation was a little softer for example..
Japan raises military spending to counter China with more missiles and ships. BoJ Nakanura says Japan is no longer in deflation, but that mindset is yet to be eradicated
The U.S economy basically grew at a 2% rate throughout the first half of the year
Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal
Bostic ''the U.S labor market undergoing a measured cooling'' -- does he know today's number ? (Non-voter though)
France's finance minister says multinational food companies Nestle, PepsiCo and Unilever should do more to cut food prices after the government agreed to bigger rollbacks with other producers
Russia is the big winner from OPEC+ output cuts. Higher prices have more than offset lower supply, in stark contrast to the situation faced by Riyadh-BBG
Sergio Ermotti has no time for nostalgia
U.S Funding for the federal government is set to run out on Sept. 30 unless action is taken by Congress, more drama
Markets :
Bonds had their usual bid- & month-end rally on slightly weaker U.S macro data this week, although core PCE and EU inflation (in particular) were firmer-sticky inflation
USDollar mixed no real direction - USDJPY (USDJPY Technical Analysis - Signs of a top are emerging) and CROSSJPY's corrected a little lower (after a big rally last 2months..), MXN which has outperformed markets YTD was a little weaker into fixings
Equity markets, August was a game of 2 halves.. initially stronger data pushed yields higher and equity tumbled together with China worries, all got slightly reverses into last 2weeks on softer data and plenty of China actions to support their own economy
Saxo : China update : implication of the new policy to lower int rates on outstanding mortgages and other changes :
Summary: China's real estate market is a focus of interest. Recent changes in policies on mortgage rates and down payments aim to address challenges. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) introduced these changes on August 31. They reduce interest rates on outstanding mortgages and standardize down payment ratios. Guangzhou and Shenzhen also moved to expand the eligibility of first-home buyer benefits. These changes reflect efforts to stabilize the property market and boost consumption, but their impact on the economy remains relatively modest.
Stock Market Outlook: S&P 500 Will Rally Next Month and Retest 2023 High (businessinsider.com) - Lee is pretty much always bullish, but there you go, why not ! this will push valuations and SP7 etc to new stretched levels - Having said all this, July spending came from US Savings!..the savings rate 'collapsed'' from 4.3% to 3.5% in July, lowest since Nov 22, and biggest drop since Jan 22
and they going up in Scotland despite council apposition Sanquhar turbines approved despite council opposition - BBC News
Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans, and it could get worse - The Washington Post ...which should hardly be a surprise given higher interest rates! but the lag effect could suddenly bite hard..
North Korea says it simulated nuclear attack on South, rehearsed occupation | The Hill let's hope it's all fakenews!
Good news for would be buyers!
Meanwhile somewhere in America :-) Police pull over car with huge bull in passenger seat. - BBC News
If you were waiting to resell/rehedge some NQ exposure - it should be around here
