PVM take on UBS earnings report below
French consumer prices reached a 12-month inflation rate of 5.7%, up from 5.1% in July, Portugal comes in at 5.3% vs 4.3% prior, EU data out shortly, EU 5.3% YoY
Euro zone growth is weaker than predicted just a few months ago but this does not automatically void the need for more rate hikes, especially as markets are undoing some of the European Central Bank's work, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said
Military coups were a regular occurrence in parts of Africa in the decades after independence. But after a period of relative democratic stability, there are indications they are on the rise/Gabon now
China manuf index rose to 49.7 (more than expected), while non manuf slightly down to 51
Japanese ministers eat Fukushima fish to show it's safe after nuclear plant wastewater is discharged
BoE's Pill: MPC emphasis is on sufficiently restrictive, No room for complacency on inflation, The squeeze on our consumption and living standards from rising mortgage rates won’t reach peak till at least the end of 2025. This is a new world, which will persist through the next general election
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic laid out a case on Thursday against any further U.S. interest rate hikes, saying monetary policy is already tight enough to bring inflation back down to 2% over a "reasonable" period
Apple has set Sept. 12 as the date for its biggest product-upgrade event of the year, when it’s set to unveil the iPhone 15 line and next-generation smartwatches
Amazon CEO in warning to staff who defy return-to-office policy
Markets :
NVDA closes on all time highs, sky is the limit looking at forecasters ! UST yields slightly softer on U.S GDP and ADP payrolls, 'peak rates' narratives underpinning markets
UST 2y is down about 20bps this week, on softer data, taking the Nov pricing out, let's see how low core PCE comes in at this afternoon, and payrolls tomorrow important too >>> On a YoY basis, rents suggest that CPI Shelter growth should slow significantly in the coming months
USDollar, should soften a little on weaker macro and thus 'softer yields', the supply issue of bonds over next few months is big, although a known known!
Equity markets more or less took back most of the early August weakness, on this softer data or 'goldilocks' moment as some seems to already be talking about (more about short-term positioning IMHO >>> ECB's Schnabel and this week EU inflation data is jumping back up, which is a worry... stagflation!
The PVM take on UBS (recall we did predict that CS would not survive without Swiss Govt support on CNBC in August 2022) : UBS Q2 whilst the headline results are as expected, even fully writing off the CS goodwill to reduce the overall Q2 profits. On the balance sheet, whilst adding USD 30.2 bn to retained earnings, they also took on CS's USD 175bn of debt which has had the effect of increasing their leverage from 3.55x to 4.1x, so they definitely need to focus on reducing debt and this is why the Q3 outlook is weak. Overall a fantastic result though. The full integration of CS over time will reduce the cost to income ratio, significantly expanding profitability
China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (msn.com) For decades, China powered its economy by investing in factories, skyscrapers and roads. The model sparked an extraordinary period of growth that lifted China out of poverty and turned it into a global giant whose export prowess washed across the globe.
Now the model is broken.
Let's hope this is realistic ! if so this is great
SPX500 4525 key res, DAX 16K etc 'softer data' could well bring back some top side momentum
