Iran update : The White House is weighing Iran’s latest proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the war. The WSJ reported that Donald Trump and his advisers were wary of Tehran’s offer, particularly regarding the country’s nuclear program, Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war (NYT and WSJ), Iran's latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved, US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Markets : South Korea surpassed the UK to become the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, small miss for Novartis, BoJ 'expected hawkish hold', government bond yields are set to stay higher for longer (Blackrock), GS warns on software stocks again, U.S. Farm bankruptcies surge +46% as fertilizer costs squeeze Farmers, Semiconductor Stocks are now trading at a 60x PE, the richest valuation since the Dot Com Bubble (after the best month in 25years.. (..flow of momentum funds is insanely fast!..but once the hyperscalers throw in the towel on CapEx...it's over again).. >> hawkish FOMC; ECB, BoE expected (hikes priced!), Bank of England could surprise given split vote, markets on all time highs and crude is still $100... PM's softer (new opportunity to long coming), USD not doing much, CROSJPY's on highs with higher yields overall and no BoJ surprise.. (hike maybe in June... expected) Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney today: “Many of our former strengths, built on our close ties to the US, have become weaknesses. The US has changed.” “We’re deepening our partnerships with the EU, the Nordic countries, and Australia.” NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations/thread Goldman Sachs saying there is another cliff for software stocks to fall off of. From today: "We expect the debate around AI disruption, and therefore uncertainty about many companies' terminal value, will persist for at least several quarters. The threat of disruption will likely represent a persistent overhang until the later stages of AI adoption. In the meantime, disproving this disruption narrative is challenging. For investors to have confidence in the long-term impact of AI, it will require more evidence of where AI is impacting earnings, which could take several quarters if not years." US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ https://t.co/v07YrqaXFI" / X China Opens Government Bond Futures Trading to Foreign Investors - Bloomberg Bank of Japan holds rates, raises inflation outlook | News.az BlackRock says higher government bond yields are here to stay Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion Swiss government looking at replacing Microsoft South Korea braces for an end to modern life as we know it South Korea passes UK to become world's eighth-largest stock market | World News - Business Standard Revolut targets $200bn valuation for IPO | Sifted Novartis Q1 profit misses expectations as sales fall on generic headwinds By Investing.com Over 16,000 Claude users worry AI will take their jobs, finds Anthropic – Firstpost ‘Kiss of death’: how the US killed a Swiss merchant bank - SWI swissinfo.ch she actually predicted the future ... Anonymous on X: "Karoline Leavitt "It will be funny, it will be entertaining, there will be some shots fired tonight in the room. Everyone should tune it, it's gonna be really great!" Yes, she actually said this 👆 https://t.co/rgoM5QzUr2" / X Hedgeye on X: "U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers: The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% https://t.co/dRhRbrPL9B" / X

Iran war update : Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for 3 weeks, says Trump, but Oil climbed for a fifth day on a lack of perceived progress between the US and Iran on resuming talks, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively remaining shut. Donald Trump’s social media posts and threats are hindering Tehran’s willingness to engage in peace talks, officials said, Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks, Trump said, creating space for broader talks and easing an obstacle to ending the US-Iran war-BBG, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until $11 trillion in frozen Iranian assets are released. If no proposal is presented within the next 48 hours, the ceasefire may end.” Abbas Araghchi >>> still remains a little shaky.. Markets : confusion, no resolution in Hormuz though for now, but it seems (we hope) they are trying to resolve 'some' issues..., crude prices disagreed yesterday though, equity sold off on some headlines yesterday, but back to where we were most of yesterday-all week, all pretty quiet in FX and bonds, CHF slightly weaker this week (turn?), big MAG7 earnings next week, DeepSeek V4 chatters too Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil DeepSeek unveiled its V4 Flash and V4 Pro AI models, pitching them as its most powerful open-source systems to rival OpenAI and Anthropic Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Russia sold 22 tons of gold in Q1 2026 — nearly 40% of all the net gold it bought across the previous six years, as Crude revenues collapsed (no longer in Q2..) GS : This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries Trump: “I took a lot of heat for saying drugs were going down 500%, 600%, 700%. But we also say sometimes 50%, 60%, it’s a different kind of calculation, and people understand it better.”....ok then #GBP Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Polish PM questions whether US is ‘loyal’ to Europe’s defence Japan core inflation accelerates after five months as Iran war stokes energy worries Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year There you have it : The Tennessee Holler on X: "“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks! https://t.co/9fy5Z7T9CV" / X (1) I Flagged Every Trade - by Peter Girnus "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years Peter Girnus 🦅 on X: "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years. I pulled the case files. https://t.co/pBjk9rITkY" / X Earnings next week ! Mag 7 Earnings Preview April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland DeepSeek Releases DeepSeek V4-Pro & V4-Flash, Delivers GPT 5.4 & Opus 4.6-Level Performance At Fraction Of The Price Microsoft plans first voluntary retirement program for US employees China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "UNUSUAL High‑Impact English Translation Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil Saudi Arabia has effectively halted a massive Israeli‑American trade corridor initiative, triggering intense frustration in Tel Aviv. Riyadh refused to https://t.co/fPyHA7VWU2" / X ...US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a number of allies in the Gulf region and in Asia have requested currency swap lines from the United States to help deal with energy shocks and other fallout from the Middle East war.... Bulgaria’s Kremlin-friendly ex-president wins election in landslide | CNN This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries

#UBS The Swiss government has laid out plans that would force UBS to increase its capital by at least $20bn Iran war update : a lot of confusing comments from far too many different parties.. Trump wants out of Iran for domestic political reasons. But he knows that making a deal resembling the 2015 Obama deal, or one that suggests he's cutting and running, will hurt him politically. If he extends the ceasefire in Iran, it will confirm he only wants a deal. Iran will see right through that. The White House said Donald Trump has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian peace proposal while Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminent-BBG, John Phelan ousted after clashing with defence secretary Pete Hegseth, Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Dozens of ships exiting the Gulf include several loaded with Iranian oil... Markets : CHINA sold oil aggressively (Mercuria CEO), equity markets holding up well, AI related names, MAG7 etc recovered fast from early April rally, bumpy road ahead though, the real pain comes now ( inflation, crude shortages etc), things can turn swiftly, that all said, Trump seems desperate for some sort of 'exit' out of Iran situation, the longer it goes on, the worse it is for him and med-terms..the hard data will get softer from here, specific downgrades in earnings likely too, it's not all bad though if Kevin Marsh is right, and AI kills inflation... but that's for later on.. China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says Japan Finance Minister Katayama: FSA and BoJ will meet with megabanks on Friday to discuss the AI model Mythos Italy has become the second country in the European Union, after France, to exceed €3 trillion in public debt, according to Eurostat data Dutch intelligence says Russia has suffered over 1.2 million military casualties in Ukraine, while Ukrainian losses are estimated at more than 500,000 Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We’re at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won’t be inflationary—we’re in the early innings of a structural decline in prices.” And finally... RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." - not even kidding.. Trump news at a glance: Pentagon replaces secretary of the navy amid US blockade in strait of Hormuz | Trump administration | The Guardian China "Aggressively" Dumps Oil In Tenders As Iran War Reshapes Flows | OilPrice.com Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months, Congress is told - The Washington Post Kevin Warsh's preferred inflation measure could come back to bite him UBS says Swiss capital plan 'disproportionate', would weaken bank and economy Clash Report on X: "Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: Netanyahu presented the Iran War case to us too. The response was no. The prediction was regime change — that people would rise up. None of that happened. Obama said no. Bush said no. Biden said no. We were lied to about what that https://t.co/J7NiWxt67f" / X Russia to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says JPMorgan Says China Property Tipping Point Will Drive Up Stocks - Bloomberg Putin finally admits Russia's economy is in trouble and grasps for answers | Fortune Tesla (TSLA) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates Brian Krassenstein on X: "OMFG! RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." No, you imbecile. That’s a 98.33% drop. No math besides make-believe math makes it 600%. https://t.co/5lmJ24WXur" / X WORDS FAIL !.... how is this even possble, may be we all need to go back to school..

Iran war update : Trump talked to anyone about a done deal, none of it was true, Iran didn't blink, so... we get ''ceasefire extended'' ie. indefinite till they reach some sort of agreement where they both win... >> an angry reaction he got outplayed.. >>> Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran and kept a US blockade in place, while JD Vance called off a trip to Islamabad for negotiations that Iran refused to attend, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the maritime restrictions “an act of war >>> Trump is getting closer to getting out of this war irrespective of outcomes in the Middle East region... Markets : Mythos Ai model in focus, TSLA earnings today, SPACEX reality check, '' Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or cancelled'', Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis #fertilizers >>> equity markets sitting near highs, crude still $90 ca., these negotiations could go on for a while and/or Trump eventually ''walks away'' and lets EU-CHINA and RoW to sort out the mess with Hormuz and the Middle East Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was accessed by a few unauthorized users , a person familiar said. The firm is investigating and has seen no evidence of impacted systems #USD The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity Exclusive-SpaceX says unproven AI Space data centers may not be commercially viable , Filing Shows Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Keeps Blockade as Talks Falter Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal. None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/ https://t.co/4a4jpJLbm3 " / X One of the better 'low jargon' analysis explaining Hormuz crisis (1) (WCTW) The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here ‘Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis | UN News #UAE #USD liquidity Brad Setser on X: " The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity . The Saudis also will need to borrow dollars to get through 1/ https://t.co/moEfi3QARg " / X Iran threatens to 'break US blockade by force' as it issues Hormuz Strait ultimatum Kevin Warsh pledges Fed independence but dodges questions on rates Exclusive-SpaceX Says Unproven AI Space Data Centers May Not Be Commercially Viable, Filing Shows Japan exports rise for seventh month as AI demand blunts Mideast risks for now | Reuters Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure and parts from China — the AI build-out flips the breakers | Tom's Hardware Javier Milei faces the dilemma of lowering inflation or boosting the economy in Argentina | International | EL PAÍS English Sold away gold, economy ruined... tricky path.. Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "The Fed just bought $40.5 billion in US government debt and called it "reserve management" so you wouldn't notice. They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. Changed the name. Same operation. Different press release. Here's what's actually happening. The US government owes" / X FBI Director Kash Patel sues the Atlantic claiming false reporting about drinking, absences | Reuters

Iran update : All happening in Islamabad again, Trump aims to seal Iran deal, says truce extension unlikely, just got extended by 1 day.. (who to trust, what to believe in this giant poker game..stop posting silly stuff on truth social perhaps ?..), JD Vance will lead the US delegation, new deadline is Wed evening DC time, FWIW >> as it turns out, it doesn't take much to hold a $100+ trillion global economy at risk... Trump: I have declared a national emergency under Executive Order 14156, and I further determine that action to expand the domestic petroleum production, refining, and logistics capacity is necessary to avert an industrial resource or critical technology item shortfall that would severely impair national defense capability. Therefore, pursuant to section 303(a)(7) of the Act, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act for the purpose of expanding such capability Markets : Datacenters are now 7% of total U.S. power demand, Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence, Tim Cook steps down in the summer after 15years as CEO >>> FWIW, still believe Trump does some fort of deal Very similar to the initially agreed JCPOA, now Iran has the upper hand, so they will want more out of it.., only trouble is, a lot is now priced into this scenario and there is always a risk it all goes wrong and Trump losses his rag !!.. Japan to ban local govts from using Chinese IT products - Kyodo (in response to Toyota's CEO article yesterday) The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low. We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street..who's right ? Behind Trump's public bravado on the war, he grapples with his own fears - WSJ Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund reins in spending as cash strains force cuts to mega-projects and high-profile global investments Goldman Sachs on stocks/economy: "Relative to the pre-war period, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, higher long-term oil prices , and somewhat higher policy rates, at least in the near-term. Rising earnings expectations have also lowered US equity valuations. This makes the outlook less cyclically supportive but more tech-friendly than early in the year and favors assets on the right side of the terms-of-trade shock." #XAUUSD who bought the most GOLD?... 7 Thread, Wells Fargo is predicting gold could soar to $8K per ounce by next year Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Trump aims to seal Iran deal, says truce extension unlikely Day 52 of Middle East conflict - Trump says extension of ceasefire with Iran is ‘highly unlikely’ | CNN Pakistan confident Iran will attend US talks, senior Pakistani government source says | Reuters Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Domestic Petroleum Production, Refining, and Logistics Capacity – The White House Trump invokes Defense Production Act for energy infrastructure By Investing.com Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Fed must ‘stay in its lane’ to maintain independence Trump's war anxiety and impulsiveness revealed In this damning piece, the WSJ explains how Trump’s war with Iran has become deeply personal: public bravado, private anxiety; tactical strikes, strategic drift; dramatic threats, improvised diplomacy, using insults as a tactic to bring Iranians to the negotiating table and screaming at aids. Constant desire to change subjects. Being angry at allies. Even his threat to destroy Iranian “civilization” was made without prior coordination with his national security team. A series of miscalculations. This is a portrait of a commander driven less by strategy than impulse, optics, and fear of failure. This is very disturbing. ‘This Isn’t Goodbye…’: Tim Cook’s Emotional Letter To Apple Users Is Deeply Personal, Read It In Full | Republic World Exclusive: Meta targets May 20 for first wave of layoffs; additional cuts later in 2026 | Reuters Saudi Arabia’s Prince Has Big Plans, but His Giant Fund Is Low on Cash - The New York Times Russian economy is faltering despite oil windfall, Sweden warns Wells Fargo predicts gold could hit $8K/oz Jack Prandelli on X: "who bought the most GOLD? 🇨🇳 China: +357T 🇵🇱 Poland: +314T 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +251T 🇮🇳 India: +245T 🇧🇷 Brazil: +105T 🇯🇵 Japan: +80T 🇸🇬 Singapore: +77T 🇮🇶 Iraq: +74T 🇶🇦 Qatar: +73T 🇷🇺 Russia: +55T 🇦🇪 UAE: +51T Notice anything? Every major country on the wrong side of US sanctions, https://t.co/1vyU0NqGPZ " / X NatWest's plan to provide investment education to the nation – The Armchair Trader UK unemployment rate sees surprise fall to 4.9%

Markets : 50 days later, we’re back to no-fighting, no-peace, but also no-oil, inflation clock restarted, confusion rules, Islamabad talks over next 24hours (who's in?, Vance was, wasn't and seems to be going again >>> because he cannot wait much at all..(Iran can..), Trump will do a botched deal which is not different than and/or looks remarkably similar to what Iran was willing to consider before the war... (or all hell breaks, which is no-one's interest..?..), USD should remain soft, PM's will continue to do well, risk, well part of equity world is taken as a 'hedge' against inflation, UST's to be avoided unless you have to, BTC doing OK, seems 65-70K support has now held for long while (bulls ), allow for delay, trust running thin between U.S and Iran, it won't be settled in days, it's been 50years.. Geopolitics : Iraq is spending $17B to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant (Thread) #USD #UST UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies." WSJ The IMF is now in total panic mode with the unravelling of Milei. So, they’re forking out more money in an attempt to stem the rising inflation, unemployment, and popular anger, looks like Musk's best friend has hit the economy hard.. Good analysis IMHO.. . Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش on X: "At a broad level, it’s important to acknowledge a hard truth: this war is a textbook case of the old saying - "Strategy must precede action" The underlying assumption in the US and Israel was that weakening Iran kineticly would eventually lead to the collapse of the regime and" / X Mario Nawfal on X: "🇮🇶 Iraq is spending $17B to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant. The Development Road is a 1,200km rail + highway from the Gulf to Turkey, then into Europe. No Hormuz. No Suez Canal. No chokepoints. The southern anchor is Grand Al-Faw Port, one of the region’s largest planned https://t.co/4a5kGoFnQ0 " / X CEO Toyota: "We won't survive – The Chinese will tear us apart" – Pronews.gr US Navy disables and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship, Trump says Tehran has ‘no plans to participate’ in new talks, state media reports, as it accuses US of violating ceasefire | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian Trump issues expletive-laden threat to Iran over Hormuz Strait blockage How 50 days of the Iran war led to the loss of $50 billion worth of oil | Reuters Gulf states turn to private deals in $10bn wartime borrowing spree (1) Buffett and China Are Making the Same Bet $111 trillion in global debt And every country on this chart is printing more to survive an oil shock they didn't see coming.  US: $38.3T growing 8% annually  China: $18.7T growing 18% annually, 14x faster than global average  EU: $17.6T energy crisis hitting reserves  Japan: $9.8T 80% of oil through blocked Hormuz The debt machine never stops. But Hormuz just made every number on this chart worse. HSBC and Standard Chartered Embroiled in Multimillion-Pound Iran Money Laundering Allegations | CB Terminal IMF approves second review of agreement with Argentina, disburses another $1 billion | EL PAÍS Argentina In a spot of trouble, again.. Keir Starmer battles for Downing Street future amid Peter Mandelson vetting scandal How nice World Cup fans to MetLife Stadium will pay $150 train fares - NJ Transit - ESPN UBS CEO: Integration is complete but next transformation underway - SWI swissinfo.ch Pro investors are rethinking crypto treasury vehicles – The Armchair Trader Entry bans into Switzerland quadrupled in 2025 - SWI swissinfo.ch Qasem Al-Ali on X: "Want to understand Iran’s negotiation strategy today? Don’t read the news. Read history. The Persian playbook is 2,500 years old. And it has never failed them. 🧵" / X

(Bloomberg) -- The Strait of Hormuz “is declared completely open” for all commercial vessels for the remaining period of ceasefire, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says in an X post In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran. The US considers $20B cash-for-uranium deal with Iran - Axios >>> crude down 10pct to WTI $85 ! risk rally further, usd down fairly sharply, as you would expect happy friday

The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions, this is NOT normal (..never happened before), Iran peace talks : T rump says 'deal with Iran very close', Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire >>> The oil market though sends a BIG warning. Physical crude is still trading like there is a real supply emergency. Futures are trading like the crisis is almost over. That gap is NOT normal.. ($200 for 'some' Asia delivery currently..), jet fuel shortages in Europe & Asia within 6 weeks >>> Macron and Starmer Hold International Summit on reopening the Strait of Hormuz Markets : The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff (Thread), IEA Head: Europe has 'maybe' 6 weeks of jet fuel left - AP News, Saudi PIF unveils new 5-year investment strategy that will narrow its focus to 6 areas, including tourism and manufacturing, as it reprioritises spending!, Portugal (again) and Slovenia sell Yuan bonds >>> Oil is at the same level where it was on 3/27, when the S&P 500 was 10% lower. this r ally is more about HUGE CTA activity than the Iran war, and now we hear Gulf & European officials saying a U.S - Iran deal will take up to 6months.. Fed's Williams: Seeing emerging signs of supply chain disruptions, Middle east war already lifting inflation Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries >> WHY NOW ? ...  It’s because 33% of US debt are set to mature in the next 12 months. That’s $10 trillion dollars..... #GOLD BOJ Governor Ueda : inflation from a negative supply shock is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than inflation driven by strong demand Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU. Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe US investor inflows into Hong Kong and China equities are now their highest , in terms of quarterly inflows, in more than three years and are at a new overall record high, reaching nearly half a trillion dollars equivalent COMEX silver inventory has been in freefall since Oct, 530 million oz to 320 million oz in six months Macron and Starmer Hold International Summit on Reopening the Strait of Hormuz US-Iran WAR: Trump's Big Update On Peace Talks, Says 'Deal With Iran Very Close' Deal with Iran ‘looking very good’ amid ceasefire, Donald Trump says | National Post Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire, Trump says Saudi wealth fund resets priorities after decade of heavy spending BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets - CNA Top Foreign Office official Olly Robbins to leave post after Mandelson vetting row Paulson says US should prepare for a 'vicious' bond crash | Watch Jeffrey Gundlach on U.S. Debt, Private Credit and Gold | The Julia La Roche Show IGCP, E.P.E., issues its first Offshore Renminbi (CNH) bond, for an amount of EUR 249 million | IGCP Portugal sold some Yuan bonds in 2019, so now again, and Slovenia too 3 weeks ago Slovenia Expands Global Funding Footprint with Successful Inaugural Renminbi-Denominated Panda Bond Offering | GOV.SI The evolution of digital asset treasury strategies – The Armchair Trader MINING.COM on X: "The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff. From Indonesian nickel to DRC copper, the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall. Reuters reports that Indonesia’s nickel" / X Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "Oracle just signed a deal for 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cells because the American power grid can't keep the lights on for AI. Let that land. A trillion-dollar software company is building its own electrical grid. Because the country's grid can't handle the demand. Yesterday" / X CEO of bitcoin firm championed by Nigel Farage leaves company | Nigel Farage | The Guardian You just can't teach that ... Mikhail Khodorkovsky on X: "Putin just lost his "Trojan Horse" inside the EU. Viktor Orban, one of Moscow’s most dependable EU allies, is out. This result carries massive implications for Russia’s ability to project power and disruption across Europe. Here is why Moscow is panicking. 🧵 [1/14] https://t.co/7CYhJS6cuY " / X

Iran war update : .... U.S. and Iran inch toward framework deal to end war (a lot of positive priced into this scenario by markets) >>> JBlas / Tentative signs -- with a lot of emphasis on tentative-- of easing in the European physical oil market. Dated Brent is falling below $120, and lots of offer today on the key trading window (compared to overwhelming bids in recent days). Physical premia also dropping a bit Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%...if you thought last 2weeks were pretty unique! they were.. Markets : The Warren Buffett overpriced market indicator just reached highest level in 75 years. Blowing past the Covid shutdown and the Dot-Com bubble >>> so SPX500 is above pre war levels, Strait of Hormuz is still pretty much closed, global supply chains all over the place, WTI still near $100 or higher (physical), inflation hit 3y highs, and Mr Market (huge CTA move) has decided that none of this matters, thanks to Ai, U. S tax refunds returning (big).. and FED adding liquidities, the energy 'shock' and shortages are yet to come through in short-term >>> Europe, China, HK Eq markets have room to catch up, PM's (PALL too) still way off end of Feb highs, JPY should do better/have an excuse to rally in short-term with lower crude prices, REAL assets again, copper been on a tear again Oil prices set to explode, clear risk - America can't fill the Gulf shortfall / Thread US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had been an unreliable global partner during the Middle East war by hoarding oil supplies and limiting exports ‌of some goods, mirroring its actions with medical goods during the COVID-19 pandemic >>> well so it maybe, but hang on.., this is in the context of the US causing the disruption.. , so it's more like a pyromaniac lecturing someone for buying too many fire extinguishers during a fire they started.. Uber commits $10bn to robotaxis in strategy shift (Balance sheet anxiety is real!!..) IMF: Interest payments have risen sharply to nearly 3% of GDP in 2025 (2% in 2023) , IMF's Managing Director Georgieva: There are shortages of oil and gas, naptha, helium and other products in Asia #XAGUSD The global silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year amid robust demand for bars and coins, and declining supplies, according to the Silver Institute Pentagon approaches GM, Ford and other large auto manufacturers to discuss shifting from auto development to weapons and military supply production! US and Iran in indirect talks to extend two-week ceasefire | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian U.S. and Iran inch toward framework deal to end war, U.S. officials say IS there is NO 'agreement' in Islamabad, it will quickly switch to aggressive action... Defence Index on X: "⭕🇺🇸🇮🇷 US PREPARING POTENTIAL GROUND OPERATIONS INSIDE IRAN AS MILITARY BUILDUP INTENSIFIES. US military officials are preparing for possible ground operations on Iranian territory, according to two US officials cited by The Washington Post. Plans under consideration include https://t.co/7VAvgZIsyZ " / X US Treasury's Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war | Reuters Copper prices are soaring. Here's what that often signals for the economy. Congo quarterly copper exports down almost 15% as cobalt rebounds - MINING.COM Tax refund fraud is surging in these states. Here's how to protect yourself before it's too late - Yahoo Sports Exclusive | Pentagon Approaches Automakers, Manufacturers to Boost Weapons Production - WSJ What's Going on in Private Credit? - The Memo by Howard Marks | Podcast on Spotify Very good recap Silver Market Set for Sixth Annual Deficit on Strong Bar, Coin Demand - Bloomberg Uber Commits $10 Billion to Robotaxis in Strategy Shift, FT Says Chinese carmakers should be kept out of US, says Ford CEO Jim Farley | World News - Business Standard Quite the irony that the US now flat out refuses capitalism's basic rule of letting the best products win?.. Mark on X: "OIL PRICES SET TO EXPLODE: AMERICA CAN'T FILL THE GULF SHORTFALL Chris Martenson — the prescient analyst who even back then had already anticipated the market reaction to COVID at an early stage as cases in China began to rise — just dropped a no-nonsense breakdown: Oil and https://t.co/oQpZoPadti " / X Labour MPs call for Swiss-style EU deal and review of US ties to revive party | Labour | The Guardian Have said it long while back, it does make sense for UK...don't rejoin, keep negotiating it's ok... You should always prepare and have some reserves... Britain could face food shortages this summer as impact of Iran war hits supplies Trump warns US-UK trade deal ‘can always be changed’ with relations in ‘sad state’ | Foreign policy | The Guardian Alex Crawford on X: "This is an astonishing condemnation of Israeli actions on the biggest international political platform with Pakistan calling Israel a ‘serial violator of the UN Charter and int law’. https://t.co/d4IcMYr81A " / X

Is the geopolitical world, global growth, physical commodity supply chain, inflation (high earnings expectations) in a better place than pre 27th Feb ? the recovery (short-covering) has been rather swift ....SPX500 back to all time highs already.. Iran war update :  2nd round of talks in Islamabad, Israel and Lebanon met for their first high-level talks in more than 30 years in what the Israeli ambassador to the US called a “victory for sanity,” even as officials played down hopes for an end to the war with Hezbollah., Trump told Fox Business he sees the war as “very close to over,” even as Washington prepares to let a sanctions waiver for Iranian oil expire this weekend. More than 20 commercial ships not calling at Iranian ports have transited the strait in the past day, the WSJ reported. An Iraq-bound supertanker that earlier aborted its crossing is now sailing through the waterway, Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases. Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March Markets : The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.5% over the next twelve months, EU NatGas prices back to 27th Feb levels, PIMCO bought all $400 million of bonds issued Monday by a Blue Owl Capital Inc. private credit fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter, IMF downgrades global growth as you would expect >>> SPX500 highest close 6'978, all time highs were 7'002, basically we are there already (time for a hedging trade again BUY downside, sell some futures etc), doesn't look like a time to chase higher anymore... CTA's bought huge, short gamma 6840+ et voilà.. WTI could settle 80-90$ for a while, physical prices though still MUCH HIGHER, and shortages of PHYSICAL diesel, kerosene deliveries are a serious possibility within 1-2weeks in parts of Europe, and Asia Europe is quietly preparing a backup plan for NATO in case Trump pulls the U.S. out or reduces its support. The idea is to make the alliance far more European-led—sometimes called a “European NATO” —so the continent can still defend itself. Source: WSJ "We've had all kinds of financial crises, but we've never really had a successful cyber attack on a large financial utility or financial institution." - Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell >>> so you know exactly what is worrying them big time currently..! Scott Bessent said Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court ruling. He also called Anthropic’s Mythos model a revolutionary step that will keep America ahead of China in AI China Tells Maersk and MSC to Withdraw from Panama Canal Ports Iran War: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Hormuz Blockade Continues - Bloomberg US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks Amid Hormuz Blockade The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, while a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz worsens a global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic prospects.  The objective is to hold more discussions before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. One proposal is to return to Pakistan, where initial negotiations were held last weekend, though other venues are being considered, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. US President Donald Trump said talks could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan, the New York Post reported. That would build on a marathon yet inconclusive session in Islamabad on Saturday night. And in a Fox Business interview, Trump reiterated he sees the war as “close to over.” Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases: Media | The Straits Times Lebanon and Israel hold rare direct talks in Washington despite Hezbollah opposition - France 24 Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war | Reuters After clashing with Trump and Israel, Sánchez casts Spain as moral model for EU – POLITICO Exclusive | Wrong-Way Bets on Oil Had a Star Trader Hundreds of Millions in the Hole - WSJ Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case Trump pulls out | Mint IMF Downgrades Global Growth Forecast on Iran War Concerns | National News | U.S. News China Orders Maersk, MSC to Drop Panama Canal Port Berlin and Kyiv seal sweeping pact on drones, data and missiles Gold Telegraph ⚡ on X: " "The scary part to some extent is if 1% of world savings is shifted back into gold, for example, you're going to see gold at $25,000 simply because there's only 221,000 ton of gold on the planet..." - The Legendary Pierre Lassonde Wealth transfer... https://t.co/Jw4NDN5z34 " / X US prosecutors made unannounced visit to Federal Reserve in DC - The Business Times Wylfa power station can begin that promises 8,000 new jobs More UK infrastructure ! Wall Street banks break records as Iran war drives trading boom wars (higher volatility, daily swings on the back of Trump's tweets...!...) are good for big banks.. ASML raises 2026 guidance as AI chip demand stays strong EXPOSED: How Viktor Orbán Bankrolled the Network Around Reform UK – Byline Times #BIZD #BAM Felix Prehn 🐶 on X: "Wall Street locked $14 billion of people's money inside private credit funds last quarter and told them they can't have it back. The Fed is now investigating whether the entire sector is about to break. This could be the next 2008. And almost nobody is covering it. Carlyle" / X Investing in Quantum Computing: A Beginner's Guide – The Armchair Trader

Saxo Bank– J. Safra Sarasin update   Pure Value Metrics is delighted that our strategic partner Saxo Bank  has received full regulatory approval for its new majority shareholder J Safra Sarasin , one of the world’s most highly capitalized (CET1 ratio) Banks.   Despite the Iran/Middle East war, March 2026 led to relatively small Client drawdowns, given the current low chosen investment exposure and resulted in an overall a pleasing positive Q1 result, given the circumstances. Your overall portfolio investment level remains at the lowest of the last 3 years   as gains have been realized and exposure reduced in line with the PVM Matrix investment model, we are ready and prepared to engage again on significant market dips.                                                                Global Shipping One of the key trends of the last 20 years has been a doubling of the global Seaborne cargo tonne miles travelled, whilst global GDP has grown less than 50% during the same period, illustrating what an increasingly critically important factor it has become.   Knowing this fact alone, should have made people think twice about starting a new Middle East war, in such a pivotal shipping region. The ongoing inflationary impacts are probably still underestimated.                                                                                            March Portfolio Returns Summary   Amongst the equity positions held, Neste Sustainable Fuels,   Woodside Energy and Norsk Hydro were the best performers; whilst Barratt Redrow, Taylor Wimpey and  Brembo underperformed.                                                       Recent Portfolio Changes Bellway Homes was added as a new investment, the positions in Barrat & Taylor   Wimpey were increased, whilst some of the portfolio holdings in Norsk Hydro , Kali & Salz & Neste were reduced.                                                                Portfolio Construction* Pure Value Metrics Client Portfolios are built “bottom up” with a selection of companies found in the latest PVM Investment Matrix. They are very well diversified across Countries and Industry Sectors, the Companies and Sectors rotate over time with changes in their relative valuations.  Yours Sincerely,   Richard-Mark Dodds Chairman & Chief Investment Officer   This message and any attachment may contain confidential, proprietary and/or legally privileged information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or its employee, or agent responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication and any attachments hereto in any form is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this message or any copies without delay physically and from all your systems. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the message states otherwise, and the sender is authorised to state them to be the views of another person or entity. * Please note this is a referential PVM portfolio; your own portfolio may differ.

Iran war update : 'physical prices of crude' still near $150.. ...Trump was so predictable over week-end and his friendly chat just open the U.S market open.. (so much insider going on, no doubt, and markets learn to 'read' him quit easily..), Vance says 'the ball is in Iran's court', progress made etc, talks will go on for a while, During the weekend meeting, the US proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity, while Iran renewed a suggestion for a halt of up to five years, the NYT reported, US and Iranian delegations will return to Islamabad later this week to resume the talks, possibly closing a deal... >>> big build up and possible disappointment for the weekend again!.. let's see Markets : Fed nominee Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing, RBA's Hauser hawkish, Sing CB tightens monetary policy, crude down back to where it was on Friday, while SPX500 is actually higher than pre war 27th Feb, and the market is about to discover the 'REAL' cost of the closure of the strait of Hormuz (so far nothing has effectively happened - the shortages and inflation will be felt form here on with a lag, now kicking in.., focus back on credit markets too '' From private credit fund withdrawals to the Fed pulling bank exposure data and pressure now spreading through the financial system'', and Trump will most likely focus on Cuba next ! >>> price of diamonds fall to all time lows (diamonds are for ever...but..), the blockade in Hormuz is far from over really, risk is Iran won't fold as easily as markets thinks, commodity prices (crude oil) on your screen don't always reflect reality in the PHYSICAL world!... Virgin Atlantic’s new CEO said he can see about six weeks of secure jet-fuel supplies before the outlook gets murkier OpenAI investors question $852bn valuation as strategy shifts. Chief executive Sam Altman refocuses AI company as Anthropic tests its early lead Hungary PM  Péter Magyar : "I am not going to call Trump from my side. If he wants, his administration can call me and talk to me" China for the United States: “If you want war, you will get war; if you want to destroy China, you will be destroyed. China will not fire the first shot, but China will not allow you to fire the second shot” President of China Energy Security Institute MAGA's policies towards the EU are proving really counter productive for the US & really good for the EU - “buy European” provisions; India, Australia, Mercosur trade deals; military/defence self-sufficiency; UK pivot towards the EU; European far-right poss in retreat Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing From private credit fund withdrawals to the Fed pulling bank exposure data and pressure now spreading through the financial system – Citizen Watch Report Private credit fault lines | UBP Vance: Up to Iran to push peace talks amid Hormuz Strait blockade US and Iran Mull Second Meeting in Bid to Revive Ceasefire Talks The US and Iran are in discussions about holding another round of face-to-face negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire, people familiar with the matter said, after talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance failed to produce a breakthrough. The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said the goal is to hold fresh talks before a two-week ceasefire announced April 7 expires next week. One idea is to return to Islamabad for a second round, though other venues have also been discussed, they said. The White House and the State Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. CNN reported Monday that White House officials were discussing the possibility of another meeting, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said efforts are ongoing to resolve the outstanding issues between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump signaled his own openness to more talks earlier Monday, saying Iran had reached out to the US. At the same time, he’s pressing ahead with a naval blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway as a way of ramping up pressure on the regime in Tehran.  “We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal,” Trump said at the White House, without elaborating on who participated in the conversation Oil supply crunch intensifies as last Hormuz tankers reach refineries Oil supply crunch intensifies as last Hormuz tankers reach refineries. Final prewar cargoes to leave Gulf set to unload in coming days, escalating a global rush to secure barrels Middle East war live: China’s Xi warns Iran conflict leaves world ‘beset by disarray’ Hungary's PM-elect Magyar vows to bring in 'new era' Le Pen probably furious that the model they were going to 'offer' in France, wrecking EU form the inside etc, has been rejected in Hungary,.. Big problem for Farage in UK too one would assume TeinaPosts.🇪🇺 on X: "It just so happens that, while our neighbors in the European Union decided not to build any more refineries, we Spaniards, being the crazy ones we are, decided the opposite. The thing is, time has passed and now Spain will be supplying kerosene to the entire European Union under https://t.co/EuFDWKF7ew " / X RBA’s Hauser uncertain if rates adequate to control inflation By Investing.com Singapore central bank tightens monetary policy as Iran war stokes price risks China’s Propylene Oxide Prices Surge Over 60% in One Month, Listed Producers Operate at High Capacity - YT FINANCE UK Approves £7.5B AI Data Center Campus in Lincolnshire JP Morgan on the looming oil "flow shock": "Against this backdrop, reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become the market’s most time-sensitive priority . The last tanker to clear Hormuz on February 28 is expected to reach its destination around April 20, marking the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain. Yet—and contrary to our expectations—large-scale refinery run cuts outside the Middle East have not materialized. Asian refiners appear to have reduced throughput by only around 2 mbd due to crude shortages in addition to seasonal maintenance, with China accounting for roughly 1 mbd, Japan 0.4 mbd, and the remainder spread across Singapore, Malaysia, and India. This implies that most of the missing 13 mbd of Persian Gulf supply has instead been bridged by a combination of aggressive inventory draws and involuntary demand destruction, as fuel availability becomes increasingly difficult to secure ." Swiss Bank UBP buying gold again, forecasting $6,000 year-end