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Markets : shortened U.S week with 4th July celebration, markets all on highs with -3- FED cuts priced in for 2025 already (AND 2 more in 2026) and core U.S inflation still 2.7%, more TACO action likely on trade talks, although Canada playing hard ball with U.S techs, which will be the key for EU too...The USDollar had its worst 1st half of the year since....1973, as foreign investors dumped UST's the most in years , no wonder precious metals are doing super well ! Small Cap Stocks are now underperforming Mega Cap Tech Stocks by the largest margin in history (MAG7, AI etc etc) >> all about the BBBill now and 9th July deadline on trade (more TACo action most likely but beware is some countries follow Canada's stance), note that Sen. Rand Paul still refuses to back budget bill due to added deb >>> implied VOLS on LOWS, now IS the time to purchase a few 'hedging trade', VIX calls, SPX put spreads, USD slightly oversold, beware short-term snap back too possibly, CHF looks overdone but hey.. USDCHF snap back a play for Q3?.. buy few usdcalls 3mos 25delta, just a trade idea #USDCHF As the FT says /confirms Trump's fiscal policy (run it hot!) and attacks on the FED has put the safe haven of the U.S at risk >>> (USD on lows, as foreigners sell UST's, in a world of increasing debt issuance...) BofA: The dollar could be at the start of a bear market as emerging markets benefit from a commodity bull market driven by infrastructure spending Deadline cancelled? France calls for extension of EU-US trade talks beyond July 9 30 June 2025 EU 401k stale ! : There is an urgent need to channel retail savings into capital markets to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. An EU savings standard could increase retail participation, benefiting savers, boosting investment and supporting strategic priorities Senators to begin morning vote on Trump's major tax, Medicaid, border bill, Trump pollster warns Senate GOP against deeper Medicaid cuts Charlie Munger: “The secret to life is easy because it's so simple: You don’t have a lot of envy or resentment. You don’t overspend your income. You stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people and you do what you’re supposed to do.” Banks - Fed Stress Test Follow-Up: All 22 banks tested remained above their minimum CET1 capital requirements, ‘Kill shot’: GOP megabill targets solar, wind projects with new tax Trump envisions China trip with dozens of CEOs. US switches from policy of escalation to a managed de-risking over time >>> M;Iddle East style visit Iran could be capable of uranium enrichment in a 'matter of months', UN nuclear watchdog says For the first time in history, 4 major central banks are reducing their balance sheets: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England are all simultaneously lowering their asset holdings. Currently by ~$120 billion a month Sen. Rand Paul refuses to back budget bill due to added debt | Watch Senators to begin morning vote on Trump's major tax, Medicaid, border bill Trump pollster warns Senate GOP against deeper Medicaid cuts - Live Updates - POLITICO ‘Kill shot’: GOP megabill targets solar, wind projects with new tax - Live Updates - POLITICO Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax after Trump cuts off U.S. trade talks Is the stock market closed on July 4th? What to watch this week Deadline cancelled? France calls for extension of EU-US trade talks beyond July 9 30 June 2025 | УНН China's manufacturing activity contracts for a third month amid deflation woes PCE inflation report May 2025: Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board's annual bank stress test showed that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession, while staying above minimum capital requirements and continuing to lend to households and businesses How a time bomb in Trump's signature tax law fueled mass tech layoffs Iran could be capable of uranium enrichment in a 'matter of months', UN nuclear watchdog says NVIDIA CEO's Plan To Sell More Than $800 Million Of Stock Is Well Timed As Shares Cross All-Time High Switzerland is emerging as Europe's Deep Tech powerhouse – The Armchair Trader Platinum price surges to 11-year high on supply concerns - MINING.COM (1) European Central Bank on X: "There is an urgent need to channel retail savings into capital markets to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. An EU savings standard could increase retail participation, benefiting savers, boosting investment and supporting strategic priorities." / X (1) Investment Wisdom on X: "Charlie Munger: “The secret to life is easy because it's so simple: You don’t have a lot of envy or resentment. You don’t overspend your income. You stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people and you do what you’re supposed to do.” https://t.co/meXlxZro0R " / X Human remains found in buried Swiss village - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : shadow FED, more TACO's, trade truce/powerful understanding with China (no deal yet..but China confirmed 'framework' agreed), Bessent on BBB and quarter-end flows pushing markets to new highs pretty easily. USD remain soft (down 10% YTD..), metals had a great push (PLAT...30+pct in June alone...super nice, NOW watch OUT as margin requirement increased dramatically into quarter-end!!) do watch out for risk of a correction in a few things in early July, ahead of the BBBill >>> markets are saying : no risk of recession, no worries with tariffs, peace in ME, the BBBill will be great, FED is going to cut 75 to 125bps by end of 2026 anyway, equities are TINA...it is what's going on, but it doesn't really feel ''right'', or does it ? valuations are too high, they can remain high for a while, let's see after quarter-end flows Around 86% of CFOs believe the bill will be reworked in Congress but it will eventually reach Trump's desk Leaders have concluded their summit. POLITICO revealed EU received latest U.S. counterproposal in Trump trade negotiation Trump trade deadlines in July ‘not critical’: White House, more TACO's, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Congress to dump Trump’s retaliatory tax in BBB Kashkari said recent U.S. inflation data has been encouraging but warned that the full inflationary impact of tariffs might still be ahead China, U.S. agree on implementing Geneva consensus, building on London framework, Beijing says What’s driving Wall Street stablecoin interest? Trillions up for grabs in the future and banks getting ready for it...and demand for UST's.. This is one of the best setups for emerging markets I can think of. And a decade of underperformance means almost everyone is underallocated to EM Warren Buffett indicator has rarely been higher: The US stock market capitalization to US GDP ratio hit 203% the second-largest reading EVER SoftBank CEO says he’s ‘all in’ on OpenAI Who is affected by new US visa rule that demands all social media accounts be made public? EU leaders thrash out Trump trade strategy — as it happened – POLITICO Most CFOs expect Trump tax bill to become law despite GOP turmoil: survey Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Congress to dump Trump’s retaliatory tax in BBB Fed's Kashkari Cautions on Delayed Tariff Impact Despite Positive Inflation Data - EconoTimes What's driving Wall Street's stablecoin interest? Trillions U.S. dollar hits 3-year low as Trump eyes early Fed chair announcement Ukraine-Russia war latest: New prisoner swap agreed in Istanbul includes return of ‘heroes of Mariupol’ Trump-Iran latest: Experts are still assessing nuclear site damage after Ayatollah threatens further attacks on US | The Independent China's industrial profits slip back into sharp decline in May - CNA China, U.S. agree on implementing Geneva consensus, building on London framework, Beijing says China's Xiaomi sees shares soar to record highs SoftBank CEO says he wanted to be OpenAI early investor Brian Allen on X: "🚨 WOW. this whole press conference is nothing but a smoke bomb. A staged circus to spin the botched Iran strike into some glorious W. But the cracks are showing. The second a reporter asked a real question; not a spoon-fed softball, Chairman Caine froze. Stumbled. Squirmed. https://t.co/KsZan6QXxw " / X Who is affected by new US visa rule that demands all social media accounts be made public?

T rump considers 'three or four' successors to 'stupid' Powell >> ''shawdow FED'' + capital requirements easing >>> markets loving this set-up together with softer usd, yields and oil... >>> BUT, markets have now about 63bps of cuts priced in for 2025 already! NATO united, 5% target, Article 5 etc >>> the U.S will stick to it all, till europe has spent enough to manage the situation in Europe.. as discussed while back... Trump has managed to get Europe to spedn and he has manage to unite Europe, something no-one has managed in 30+ years... Markets : NVDA, QQQ all time highs, ''what else'', Shell denies BP interest, USD breaking down (EURUSD 1.1600-50+ is a big medium term statement..pick your currency to buy vs USD..), Growth sectors are outperforming in the US, while Value sectors are leading the rest of the world (chart available), crypto asset for home loan could very well be accepted shortly Lutnick: “Just cut our interest rates, our deficit will naturally shrink and our economy will soar.”...okay then..sounds pretty easy! GOLD holding up well, SILVER has $40 in sight for summer, as expected...HUGE break up in PLAT, PALL also in the frame... European stocks fell (slightly) on Thursday after Trump warned that Spain could face tariffs twice as high from the US if it doesn’t increase its defense spending Debt-to-GDP is above 100% in 6 of 7 G7 nations, and is rising/THREAD China urges Beijing-backed development bank to focus more on Belt and Road Initiative Japan ’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said the country can’t accept the US’s 25 per cent tariffs on cars, adding that the Asian nation’s automakers produce far more cars in the US than they export to America >>> accept higher JPY then, to make a deal... Crypto Enters the Mortgage Mainstream: FHFA Signals Institutional Integration, Mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac directed to consider crypto as valid assets for home loan eligibility Peter Thiel on why 70% of Millennials say they are pro-socialist: “When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time… and if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.” Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks More liquidities.. Exclusive | Trump Accelerates His Fed Chair Search, Looking for a Loyalist to Succeed Powell - WSJ ''SHADOW FED'' Trump considers 'three or four' successors to 'stupid' Powell There were toe-curling displays of affection towards 'Daddy' Trump at the NATO summit - but like it or not, it worked Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump admits Putin could invade more of Europe after meeting Zelensky at Nato summit Trump wants more drones and missiles, fewer F-35s in $893 billion budget request | Reuters Mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac directed to consider crypto as valid assets for home loan eligibility A battered Iran faces an uncertain future after its grinding war with Israel China urges Beijing-backed development bank to focus more on Belt and Road Initiative China to Block Its Rare-Earth Experts From Spilling Their Secrets Japan can't accept US' 25% car tariffs, says trade negotiator Akazawa | World News - Business Standard Number 10 set to offer concessions to welfare rebels | Welfare | The Guardian USD down Nick Timiraos on X: "President Trump’s exasperation over the Federal Reserve’s take-it-slow approach to cutting interest rates is prompting him to consider accelerating when he will announce his pick to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs for another 11 months" / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨 Global debt is gigantic: Debt-to-GDP is above 100% in 6 of 7 G7 nations, and is rising. 🇯🇵 Japan: ~250% 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇺🇸 US, 🇫🇷 France, 🇬🇧 UK 🇨🇦 Canada: all near or above 100% For 5 of 7 G7 economies, debt is set to surge further by 2030.👇 https://t.co/wdsiyABO4n " / X Tesla's European car sales fall as customers switch to Chinese EVs BYD cuts EV production in China - electrive.com Shell confirms it has ‘no intention’ of making an offer for BP

NATO leaders set to back Trump defence spending goal at Hague summit, Trump committed to defending Nato allies, insists Rutte, Donald Trump is “totally committed” to Nato’s Article 5 clause, the military alliance’s secretary general has insisted, despite the US president saying the mutual defence pact was open to interpretation Markets : Oil prices back down to lows, quicker than they went up initially ! USD 'struggling', equities loving low VIX and plenty of liquidities, bond bid going into quarte-end likely >>> and fair few pretty conflicting assessment on the Israel/Iran war, Israel talking years, Trump days >>> tariffs, Iran nukes, UKR-RU war, Big Beautiful Bill, property markets problems (US), none of it is resolved, and yet markets act as it's all clear, QQQ ATH's and the rest of them indices pretty close to their highs again too US sees Limited damage to Iran atomic sites as UN Watchdog urges inspections Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs, "we would have continued cutting." French government to face no-confidence vote after pension talks collapse Big U.S banks, worried about being Trump's next target, race to appease Republicans China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says USD : This is not de-dollarization through headline declarations or sanctions retaliation, it’s the slow reconfiguration of trust / THREAD Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but deflationary for everyone else / THREAD Mexico will not approve new mining concessions, Sheinbaum says Nato summit latest: Trump is committed to defending allies, insists Rutte Powell says Fed can wait to reduce interest rates as Trump demands cuts Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell is asked whether he wants to co-sign on to Chris Waller's dovish inflation outlook. He stays neutral: "I think many paths are possible here. And certainly the one you mentioned is a possible one. We could see inflation come in not as strong as we expect. If that were the" / X Mike Johnson urges Republicans to stay in town for megabill vote - Live Updates - POLITICO EndGame Macro on X: "What we’re likely witnessing here is the quiet construction of a parallel settlement infrastructure, one that leverages gold as a neutral reserve asset to facilitate bilateral trade outside the U.S. dominated financial system. The steady rise in Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia, https://t.co/4tU5O07g6P " / X Oil prices rise despite fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel US strikes failed to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, intelligence report says | Reuters US Sees Limited Damage to Iran Atomic Sites as UN Watchdog Urges Inspections Trump says China can buy Iranian oil, urges it to also buy US crude | The Straits Times NATO leaders set to back Trump defence spending goal at Hague summit UK to expand nuclear deterrent with jets carrying tactical weapons Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez rejects NATO's 5% of GDP spending plan as 'unreasonable' China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says Chinese Firms Boost Exports to UK as Trump Tariffs Shift Trade - Bloomberg China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 7 AM ET: Big Banks, Worried About Being Trump's Next Target, Race to Appease Republicans | Abridge, ... | Morningstar French government to face no-confidence vote after pension talks collapse – POLITICO David Albright on X: "We saw the reports on the leaked DIA report, and have a few comments.  The aspects raised are addressing a narrow question, albeit an important one, namely how quickly could Iran make a nuclear weapon in a worst case assessment post-attack.  With residual stocks of 60 percent and" / X Google could face changes to search in the UK amid CMA crackdown Mexico will not approve new mining concessions, Sheinbaum says | S&P Global Bill Gross on X: "Long-term research indicates US 10 year has traded at CPI plus 175. With inflation at 2.5% that puts a 10 year at 4.25% or so. That was history — but deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below" / X Robin Brooks on X: "Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but deflationary for everyone else. You can see this in yesterday's flash PMIs for June. Output prices (blue) are up sharply for the US (top left), but doing nothing in the Euro zone (top right), UK (bottom left) and Japan (bottom right)... https://t.co/0KmD1KneSq " / X

NATO summit, without Japan and South Korea, Trump of course will be there Big banks are close to getting one of biggest regulatory rollbacks since 2008 >> one of the main reason equity markets been holding up well and now ripping! bullish bonds, risk, bearish usd (Fed's Waller and Bowmann...) Markets : The odds of an interest rate cut by the September FOMC have soared to 80%, ceasefire announced, all this loooked a little 'staged' as discussed yesterday, big show of military might from the U.S, when Iran facilities had been cleared, same for the Qatar air base (it had been cleared few days ago..)...sending few missiles and no casulaties.. is just kind of face-saving..(can forget about Hormuz closing now ..) >>> crude right back down (JPY right back), risk-on, USD softer overall, close to breaking support levels again.. . equity markets at or nerar all-time-highs, valuations rather rich, a little too euphoriac, CHF looks a little 'misplaced', too high relative to few many things across global markets After Waller, Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting >>> Powell will be grilled on this now, as he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week A historic #copper  squeeze on the LME continues, with spot copper trading at a USD 379-a-tonne premium to the three-month futures, the highest level since 2021 UK Vows to spend 5% of GDP on security by 2035 to hit NATO goal   China's auto industry has inflated car sales for years through a government-backed grey market that registers new cars right off the assembly line and then ships them overseas as "used" vehicles Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Now Pays 5% of All U.S. Corporate Income Tax. A 'record-shattering' $26.8 Billio China, which in March slipped to become the third-largest foreign holder, behind the UK, had $757 billion of US Treasury securities in April, down $8.2 billion from March Brexit the 'stupidest thing any country has ever done' - Michael Bloomberg Europe tiptoes through NATO summit as Trump lands and Iran looms – POLITICO Arnaud Bertrand on X: "There's no overstating how extraordinary this is. The West has now lost political support from the whole of Asia, even Japan and South Korea. https://t.co/0CDwOMwGeh " / X Truth Details | Truth Social CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE... Big banks are close to getting one of biggest regulatory rollbacks since 2008 [Video] Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting China's holdings of US Treasury bonds fall to $757 billion in April, ‘aligning with broad trend of forex reserve diversification’ - Global Times Ole S Hansen on X: "A historic #copper squeeze on the London Metal Exchange continues, with spot copper trading at a USD 379-a-tonne premium to the three-month futures, the highest level since 2021, signalling a shortage of supply for immediate delivery amid a recent rush from traders to ship copper https://t.co/eqWPXf8yTh " / X Copper Faces Historic Squeeze With LME Stockpiles Depleting Fast UBS and Pictet report data leak after cyber attack on provider Chain IQ - SWI swissinfo.ch Portugal tightens citizenship rules, doubles wait time for foreigners - The Economic Times Brexit the 'stupidest thing any country has ever done' Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Reuters: China's auto industry has inflated car sales for years through a government-backed grey market that registers new cars right off the assembly line and then ships them overseas as "used" vehicles. https://t.co/kht7RFdpX6 " / X Tesla robotaxi incidents caught on camera in Austin get NHTSA concern

Happy Brexit referendum day ! Time to rejoin? Most voters now support referendum to reverse Brexit – YouGov Markets : pretty calm, so far anyway. Higher crude prices, JPY weakens. Quite frankly, the rest is pretty orderly! doomsters not rewarded. Huge military might from the U.S being shown to everyone, yet apparently the 'sites' in Iran had been cleared before ? hence 'few' casualties', was there really such great intel ??...Iran can respond now to save face (and 'miss'), then they can all sit down and come up with new Abraham Accords deals, peace talks etc..? Traffic as usual in Hormuz.., Brent back to where it was on Friday, and so is pretty much everything else >>> reminder : this is the time when every tourist on various media channels become specialist on Middle East, Iran geopolitics >>> Fluid situation, risk has been reduced for clients, awaiting calmly for new opportunities Multiple oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz this morning, both in and outbound. No even a hint of disruption/Javier Blas According to the New York Times, U.S. intelligence believes Iran removed approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity from the Fordow facility prior to the strike. The current location of this nuclear material is unknown to the United States Tesla worries, Tesla robotaxi: Texas lawmakers ask to delay launch in Austin Germany and Italy are facing calls to move their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence Gold is leaving the vault! COMEX inventories are falling Iran’s parliament backs blocking Strait of Hormuz. Its closure will alienate Tehran further Pakistan condemns Trump's bombing of Iran - a day after nominating him for Peace Prize | Reuters U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz Regime change: Is Trump about to 'Make Iran Great Again'? Donald Trump says US has attacked three Iranian nuclear sites and ‘totally obliterated’ them | Iran | The Guardian Trump’s Attacks on Iran Were Based on ‘No Intel’: Sources B-2 bombers from Iran mission return to Missouri Javier Blas on X: "Multiple oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz this morning, both in and outbound. No even a hint of disruption. Oil loading across multiple ports in the Persian Gulf appears normal. If anything, export rates over the last week are higher than earlier in June | #OOTT #Iran" / X Fed's Waller was dovish in his interview Friday, tariffs are a one-time effect, pushed back against the idea of persistent price increases. Waller somewhat diverted from Powell's forward-looking monetary policy idea and advocated for lowering the policy rate potentially "as early as July." He said that inflation data have been fine, which gives the committee room to lower rates. He mentioned that the magnitude of impact from tariffs is likely to remain the same and uncertainty persists around the timing Spain agrees with NATO to skip 5% defence spending target | Reuters Why...how about europe united ?.. in its overall efforts.. Disturbing Test Shows What Happens When Tesla Robotaxi Sees a Child Mannequin Pop Out From Behind a School Bus Tesla robotaxi: Texas lawmakers ask to delay launch in Austin British Airways: Gulf flights cancelled and diverted as tension mounts | The Independent Financial Times on X: "Germany and Italy are facing calls to move their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence. https://t.co/PdrJPzZ7Oy https://t.co/bx5pNj7rw9 " / X Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️True US Dollar bear markets are usually 20-40%: 1970s (-30%) - End of Bretton Woods (USD delinked from gold) 1980s (-40%) - Plaza Accord (G7 nations devalued USD to reduce trade deficits) 2000s (-30%) - Post-9/11 policy shifts, Fed rate cuts The US Dollar is down 9% YTD. https://t.co/N9xkkviI5Z " / X BofA sees $4,000 gold price on US debt concerns, not war - MINING.COM Silver prices are surging. Is it a better investment than gold now? - CBS News nothing wrong with diversifying some.. making sure to ADD XPTUSD PLAT too Steve Hanke on X: "Gold is leaving the vault! COMEX inventories are falling. Demand for physical gold is exploding. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Octn6ZvDf5 " / X Column: Copper smelters are facing both market and pricing crises - MINING.COM Time to Brejoin? Most voters now support referendum to reverse Brexit - YouGov

US government budget deficit is a CRISIS: The US fiscal deficit is projected to hit a MASSIVE 9% of GDP by 2034. Such deficits have never occurred outside of major crises and wars >>> Over the last 10 years, US Federal Government Tax Revenue has increased 60% to over $5 Trillion while Government Spending has increased 97% to over $7 Trillion. The result: a doubling of the US National Debt from $18 trillion to $37trillions! just made it this morning, that's some achievement Markets : largest ever June option expiry today, Trump gives Iran 2 more weeks, he also gives TikTok another 90days, more TACO action, markets quite used to it by now.. SPX 5905 area is the JPM strike, which is where we stopped last night, just before the 2weeks delay news/rally...SNB cuts to zero (they will have to intervene if they want a weaker swissie..they can if they want to...they have plenty of room...). USD struggles to hold onto short-covering rallies, small matter of $37trn debt clock! Trump’s poll numbers just fell off a cliff and he’s taking the GOP with him/Thread Motorsport giant #Brembo enters cycling market with Specialized BoJ Minutes note rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low The US economic surprise index dropped to -23 points on Tuesday, the lowest in 9 months/Thread-chart #XPTUSD fun fact, the global above ground stockpile of platinum is worth something like $3B at current prices, in other words it's tiny, anyone with a big purse could squeeze it to 2K easily... China, EU discussed trade remedies, better ties, Chinese commerce ministry say UK and EU to hold talks with Iran as Trump gives Tehran two-week window to negotiate end to Middle East crisis Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran conflict within two weeks - BBC News Donald Trump will delay a looming TikTok ban for a third time Brian Allen on X: "BREAKING: Trump’s numbers just fell off a cliff and he’s taking the GOP with him. 📉 Fox News Poll: –30 on inflation –18 on the economy –17 on foreign policy That’s not a margin of error—that’s a political obituary in the making. 2026 isn’t just looking bad for https://t.co/wZ4jQH6s8y " / X BoJ Minutes note rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low Japan's core inflation hits 2-year high, keeps rate-hike bets alive | Reuters SNB Cuts Rate to Zero and Hints at More to Stop Franc Inflows He would say this, but still Eric Sprott Warns: Don’t Miss This Gold & Silver Rally | Sprott Money Motorsport giant Brembo enters cycling market with Specialized | BikeRadar EXCLUSIVE: “How Fascism Works” Author Jason Stanley Plans to Leave the U.S. | Amanpour and Company Jim Chanos on Bull Market, Tesla, Carvana and Michael Saylor Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨US government budget deficit is a CRISIS: The US fiscal deficit is projected to hit a MASSIVE 9% of GDP by 2034. Such deficits have never occurred outside of major crises and wars. This projection also assumes no recession and lower interest rates than currently. Insanity.. https://t.co/BVZIdyAgfc " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The US economic surprise index dropped to -23 points on Tuesday, the lowest in 9 months. The economic surprise index measures economic data coming in above or below consensus estimates. Outside of 2024, this marks the largest decline in 3 years. This month, https://t.co/cFDXt2WEj6 " / X The electric vehicle industry is a key new industry of China, but it is also engaged in fierce price competition, which hurts margins.  Goldman Sachs notes that government subsidies for EVs could run into 2026, with a similar impact to 2025, but sales for 2027 and 2028 are expected to decline China, EU discussed trade remedies, better ties, Chinese commerce ministry say | Reuters Government admits fossil fuels use is cheaper than going net zero

Microsoft is about to lay off another 8,000 people on July 2. That’s 14,000 jobs 2 mos Fed holds rates again in 4.25-4.5% target range, still sees 2 cuts by year end. Lowers 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 1.7% prev, lifts inflation to 3.1% from 2.8% forecast in March >>> 'stagflation' in other words, all next 3 meetings 'in play', all largely 'as expected really', -7- Fed members now penciling NO cut in 2025 Markets : signs of equity markets 'topping out' SPX 6K+ (expensive valuations), DAX, HSI, QQQ all charts looking the same (risk lower now, sell rallies after VIX expiry JPM strike 5905..... )...USD also finding some interest (short covering, as mentioned on Tuesday, markets overextended-short USDollar, BEWARE in short-term, SNB cuts as exp ( they can and will need to intervene a lot more to weaken CHF from here!..), BoE to be unchanged today (expected) Many seem to bet/think/hope the Fed can declare victory on inflation and signal that it is ready to cut rates again, would be surprising, given that tariff effects have been delayed, not cancelled, and oil is higher now too! Krasnodar, one of Russia's largest #wheat  producing regions, has declared a drought emergency SpaceX Starship explodes again, this time on the ground #XAGUSD Industrial Demand Creating Momentum for Silver Trump on his relationship with Jerome Powell… Absolute comedy: “He just refuses to lower rates. I don’t even think he’s political, I think he hates me. He probably should, I call him every name in the book to try and get him to cut.” Fed dot plot reveals more divided central bank, but still points to two rate cuts in 2025 Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Reuters: "Washington's aggressive and chaotic rollout of tariffs has shaken faith in the U.S. currency and other U.S. assets, prompting a broader shift by investors away from the U.S. dollar and towards Asian currencies and the euro." https://t.co/yXksuszcjO " / X Markets rattled by oil. Here’s how smart traders are positioning with options | Saxo FOMC pumps USD. Stablecoin developments churn two superstar stocks. | Saxo Market Call Israel-Iran conflict: Shipping insurance costs jump in the Middle East Starmer considers whether to support US if Trump joins Israel’s war on Iran A US strike on Iran could open a ‘Pandora’s box’ in the Middle East, experts warn Trump privately approved attack plans for Iran pending final order, WSJ reports | Reuters Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump tells Putin to ‘do him a favour’ and end own conflict before looking to Iran Global Times: Anticipation builds in Astana for 2nd China-Central Asia Summit Citi sees gold below $3,000 after Q3 2025 on weak demand, growth optimism | Reuters A bearish Gold view! vs the bullish one, which we still like overall, together with Silver and specially PLAT In Gold We Trust on X: "📈 Gold's breakout is just getting started. @MiningVisuals The current leg higher is only halfway through its potential rally — breaking out of a 12-year cup-and-handle pattern. With CBs buying, USD tanking & debt soaring Is $4,000+ gold next? 🚀 #GoldRally #SafeHaven #IGWT25 https://t.co/wGztgZUjE4 " / X Industrial Demand Creating Momentum for Silver Ole S Hansen on X: "EIA's weekly update showed a 11.5m barrel #crudeoil draw, the biggest in a year, as exports rose 1m b/d to 4.4m b/d, and imports fell 0.7m b/d. Gasoline and distillate stocks posted a small rise, with refinery input down 365k b/d, while implied demand for gasoline (4-wk avg.) https://t.co/W2zbjvDN5S " / X Karen Braun on X: "🇷🇺Krasnodar, one of Russia's largest #wheat producing regions, has declared a drought emergency. Rostov, another major wheat grower, declared one last week. Unsure how this will impact the wheat harvest, though, as industry estimates have edged up slightly in the last week. https://t.co/AprxNddbZS " / X SpaceX Starship explodes again, this time on the ground | The Verge Some Chinese cities pause car-buying subsidies as funds run out | Reuters Government admits fossil fuels use is cheaper than going net zero Microsoft Plans New Wave of Layoffs Following 6,000 Job Cuts in May - eTeknix

G7 : Not such a happy family, Trump left early, G7 statement without Trump's signature and Trump implied Russia should be reincluded in a G8 and declined to agree more sanctions on it Markets : ETHA ETF available on the platform now (with options) , see below, solar stocks down (U.S budget), Trump 'urged an evacuation of Tehran' (even if impossible, why did he say this???) , FOMC tomorrow, SNB, Norges and BoE Thursday >>> USD not doing much, slightly oversold perhaps ahead of FOMC, SPX500 'struggles' 6K+ valuations, geopolitics, tariffs, still many issues out there, AND it's VIX EXPIRY tomorrow, which tend to coincide with 'highs and lows' , recall the last 2months VOL hammering which brough back all the systematic buyers of Eq....BEWARE of a change of tune in market sentiment, wouldnt take much SPX500 : No matter what anyone says - the S&P trading at 22 x has very limited upside 30-Year Treasury Bonds have now lost almost half their value over the last 5 years , chart and Thread below EU Commission prepared to accept flat-rate U.S. tariff of 10% under clear conditions The Trump Organization said it will begin selling a gold smartphone for $499 in August, the grifting will never stop The EU should be open to resuming Russian gas imports if peace agreements are mediated to end the war in Ukraine , Austria said. Brussels “we must maintain the option of reassessing the situation once the war is over,” the Austrian Department of Energy told the Financial Times BOJ holds interest rate, will trim JGB buying by around 200bn yen. Central bank maintains rate at 0.5% amid Trump tariffs and economic uncertainty $30 trillion global debt in 1997 and $325 trillion global debt today.... So many controversial news, Trump made a fool of Macron, who said Donald left G7 to focus on peace talks, Trump had none of it and said Macron didn't know what he was talking about Iran live: Israeli strike kills Iranian journalist and staffer at state TV | Middle East Eye Truth Details | Truth Social Iran sought US pressure on Israel for ceasefire via Gulf states, sources say | Reuters Netanyahu tells ABC he's not ruling out taking out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - ABC News G7 Statement G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran | Prime Minister of Canada The EU may accept a flat 10% U.S. tariff, with conditions - Fast Company EU’s Sefcovic to Meet US’s Greer at G-7 to Talk Trade, Tariffs Business news live: FTSE 100 opens after UK-US trade deal is signed US Senate budget bill proposal keeps cuts to solar, wind incentives | Reuters Senate GOP tax bill would hit politically explosive Medicaid provision - Live Updates - POLITICO Trump-branded wireless service launches — with a gold phone Didi anybody ever doubt he was only in for the dosh... Aaron Rupar on X: "Eric Trump: "Eventually all the phones can be built in the USA." (so Trump phones are not actually being built in the USA lol ... ) https://t.co/wLKx74fMcC " / X Keith Edwards on X: "What if the soldiers were silently protesting? https://t.co/DgfXPQyrwe " / X >>>>You bet, no doubt about it..I didn't do too much military service but I can guaranty you it's not too hard to 'march' properly aligned.. Institutional flows and pure leverage: how to trade the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with options | Saxo Gold — not the dollar or Treasurys — is the new ‘risk-free’ asset as Israel-Iran conflict rattles investors - MarketWatch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: China’s central bank increased its gold holdings by 2 tonnes in April, posting their 6th consecutive monthly purchase. This brings China’s gold reserves to a record 2,295 tonnes, or 6.8% of total reserve assets. According to Goldman Sachs, China actually purchased 27 https://t.co/szVOtMcpp9 " / X Weston Nakamura on X: "🇯🇵Bank of Japan June 2025 BOJ is continuing to reduce JGB buying IN -LINE w/ prevailing trajectory & expectations In other words- this reduction isn’t a taper-tapering BOJ Gov Ueda: 🇯🇵15:30 MOF impromptu meeting w/ bond market investors to term out JGB issuance: 6/20 https://t.co/5t9ojdEUk5 " / X Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Treasury Bonds 30-Year Treasury Bonds have now lost almost half their value over the last 5 years 📉📉 https://t.co/AEHAwU2vMj " / X

Strait of Hormuz the key Markets : pretty light reaction to the missile exchange over the weekend! in fact crude was up 4-5% initially, SPX traded 5960 area and here we are, plenty of fake news, quite hard to follow, some suggesting members of Iran's supreme leaders left to another country, state of the Natanz underground nuclear facility??, the key for crude and markets in general, remains the Srait of Hormuz, ECB's de Guindos seems relaxed about EURO strength and Trump's military parade was a bit of a flop (clearly some soldiers didn't want to be there and march! ..) G7 in Canada today, it's like G6 vs Trump these days FOMC meeting, is the FED still in a good ploace ? (..with crude prices higher..) Companies are bullish on AI but remain skeptical of the payoff Canada, UK agree to establish trade working group, expand defense collaboration Walmart and Amazon are reportedly considering their own crypto #stablecoins Emerging Markets stocks are underperforming U.S. stocks by the largest margin in more than 50 year (chart available on request) S&P 500 looks expensive, but for good reason, BofA Brad Gerstner : US export controls banning Nvidia in China are huge mistake - handing monopoly profits, data & developers in massive China mkt to Huawei will accelerate their AI stack around the world. Let Nvidia win, pin down Huawei, keep developers in Cuda & plow profits back into US JPM expects Japan, EU, and China to outperform the US in the next 10-15 years Vietnam has officially gained admission to BRICS as a “partner country” Another one. Econovis on X: "📈 Turning Point in Hormuz Strait Tensions The Strait of Hormuz funnels ~20 mbpd (90% of Gulf oil) flows through the Strait. Iran’s leverage is fading: U.S./EU demand has plunged, China’s surged. Any disruption now hits Beijing hardest—while U.S. producers stand to gain. 🔗 https://t.co/bgOueb8oiv " / X 'It is a flop': Sparse crowds undermine Trump's military parade Live updates: Israel attacks Iran, explosions in Tel Aviv and Tehran, US position | CNN How Israel's Mossad covertly infiltrated Iran to launch unprecedented attack Israel's Attack on Iran's Nuclear Program Is Going for the Death Blow Trump vetoed Israeli plan to kill Iran's supreme leader, US officials say | Reuters Forget the G7. Now it’s the G6 vs. Trump. – POLITICO MAGA Warned Trump on Iran. Now He’s In An Impossible Position. - POLITICO Is the Fed still in a 'good place'? | Reuters ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says Canada, UK agree to establish trade working group, expand defense collaboration | Reuters Companies are bullish on AI but remain skeptical of the payoff China’s May Retail Sales rise 6.4%, Industrial Production up 5.8% Why Walmart and Amazon Are Reportedly Considering Their Own Crypto Stablecoins S&P 500 looks expensive, but for good reason, BofA's Subramanian says (SP500:S&P Complete Indices) | Seeking Alpha Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "JPM expects Japan, EU, and China to outperform the US in the next 10-15 years Good start. https://t.co/V7GZEKo50E " / X

Markets : Israel launched strikes against Iran overnight, that escalated swiftly...every commentator on TVee will become an expert on the situation now! No point speculating, uncertainty likely to remain high for a while... Equity market top confirmed, SPX 6K+ and equivalent, on valuations! the trigger for correction is now here , with Crude up nearly 10%, chances of a FED cut has diminished now (Trump called Powell 'numbskull' yesterday), he will keep having a go no doubt.. Bonds having their days again (slowdown growth-stagflation again then..), reduced risk, no need to be too brave in all this, USD may show some strength short-term again (slightly oversold, USD demand on further risk-off possible too), and we have Trump's parade to look forward to this weekend Crude Oil could soar to $130 in a "worst-case" scenario, warns JP Morgan DoubleLine’s Gundlach has cut his allocation to speculative-grade credit to the lowest since his firm was founded . He sees elements of 1999 and 2006-2007 in today’s markets, and said longer-term US Treasuries are no longer risk-free investments/ Video below Hedge funds bought a record amount of global equities in May, according to Goldman Sachs >>> short-covering done, smalls new highs , momentum fails and now markets under pressure.... Wall Street economists expect inflation measures to rise to the mid to low 3% range by the end of the year The outlook for 2026 is more interesting. Some have inflation back to 2%, others have it closer to 3% US Treasury Secretary says that in two decades the Ukrainian economy will be larger than the Russian. Bessent: I think that would provide a very strong deterrent for whomever is running Russia then U.S Continuing unemployment claims keep moving higher reflecting softening labor market >>> 4 week moving average initial claims making two year highs China ready to drop all tariffs...on African imports...not too surprised there! Using #PLTR currently has a $360B+ market cap on $3.1B revenue and $0.57M in net income.... totally justifiable... Merz : no diplomatic resolution to peace talks with RU, therefore, we are doing now what have previously announced. There will be more sanctions 'Too much bureaucracy,' Reeves tells regulators Trump suggested car tariffs could go higher soon as "The higher you go, the more likely it is to build a plant here.” US says it was not involved in Israel's military strikes in Iran - BBC News Israel has so far carried out 5 waves of strikes in Iran, military official says | The Times of Israel Iran launches 100 drones at Israel in response to missile attack What To Know About Trump’s Military Parade Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump Trump calls Fed chief Powell 'numbskull' as he urges interest rate cut Trump ‘may have to force’ Fed on interest rate cuts 'Too much bureaucracy,' Chancellor Rachel Reeves tells regulators - BBC News (((Tendar))) on X: "Statement by Chancellor Friedrich Merz: „You remember, 5 weeks ago I launched the initiative in Kyiv together with other European leaders, aiming to achieve a diplomatic success in reference to opening up peace talks with Russia. This has not been achieved. Russia is not willing https://t.co/pg4gu92hGe " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: Hedge funds bought a record amount of global equities in May, according to Goldman Sachs. This comes after 4 consecutive months of net selling, which included nearly a record dumping in March. Last week, these funds' trading activity saw the largest https://t.co/wNqAcmSVwp " / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Wall Street economists expect inflation measures to rise to the mid to low 3% range by the end of the year The outlook for 2026 is more interesting. Some have inflation back to 2%, others have it closer to 3%. https://t.co/xkPBGwrrnf " / X China-Africa trade: Beijing ready to drop tariffs on imports from the continent - BBC News Zero-sum game mentality not conducive to transforming consensus into fair deal: China Daily editorial - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn Why Bessent dislikes China Sacramento-area lawmakers react to Senator Alex Padilla being escorted out of press conference BreakThrough News on X: ""We will kill you graveyard dead." Florida Sheriff Wayne Ivey threatened to kill anti-ICE protesters, offering multiple graphic, sadistic descriptions of how police would do it. https://t.co/ndIcsctyNY " / X Air India Flight 171: Everything we know as passenger plane destined for London Gatwick crashes

China puts six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses, WSJ reports, China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar, Beijing is asking for production details & confidential lists of customers as part of its export approval process for critical minerals and magnets, free trade ? trade deal done ? Markets : Israel/Iran situation escalating (risk), crude higher, tame U.S CPI y'day 0.1% softer than exp (core still 2.8%, but '' significantly increases the likelihood of Fed cuts this year, particularly if there is material slowing in employment'' ), Trump and Vance had a go at Powell to cut now, Trump deal with China isn't a deal at all but it sounded good (''He says, Xi says...''..U.S not in a strong position to negotiate), all about rare earth. LA immigration riots spreading in man other cities nationwide, not good >>> USD following yields lower + risk-off (#USDJPY #JPY), equity for now not too concerned but IMHO, markets been topping out, SPX made a blood rush higher yesterday on the China deal (cough..not a deal), and it wouldn't take much to move lower from here, DAX/EUstocks50 been topping out too, WATCH #VIX, which ticked up a little last 24hours!.. More TACO action : Bessent floats extending tariff pause for countries in ‘good faith’ trade talks Bessent on inflation: "Inflation in the U.S. is at its slowest pace since 2021 on decelerating cost increases for shelter, food, and energy. After four years of price increases diminishing the U.S. standard of living, inflation is showing substantial improvement due to the administration’s policies" The market value of the US bond market has fallen to just 68% of the stock market’s value, the lowest ratio since the 1970s Gibraltar/UK agree deal to hand control of border to EU. Britons will now have to show passports to Spanish or EU guards when they land on the Rock... #XAUUSD Gold overtook the Euro as global reserve asset 2024, Silver and platinum prices soared as investors seek ‘gold alternatives’ - Prices climb more than 10% this month amid search for hedges against dollar weakness Paul Tudor Jones Predicts 10% Dollar Slump During the Next Year  - “You know that we are going to cut short-term rates dramatically in the next year,” Jones said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “And you know that the dollar will probably be lower because of it. A lot lower because of it.” (HK) Reportedly Hong Kong’s pension fund managers have earlier formed a preliminary plan to sell down their US Treasury holdings within as soon as three months if the US loses its last recognized AAA credit rating - press [**Reminder: Moody's joined S&P and Fitch at cutting US rating from 'AAA' to 'AA+' on May 16th] In May, the US Govt collected $370bn, just one big issue it spent $687bn., that's a $315+bn deficit in one single month Israel considering military action against Iran in days without US support - reports | World News | Sky News Israel considering military strike on Iran, sources say US to pull some personnel from the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran | Reuters Bessent: Tariff pause for countries in 'good faith' talks Rick Rieder on X: "With today’s highly anticipated CPI print coming in below expectations on MoM and core readings for its fourth month in a row, inflation has proven to be tamer and more controlled than initially expected. Core Services is now running at the lowest 6M and 3M annualized run rate https://t.co/sxH1qLkpuI " / X Vance joins Trump in bashing Powell, says Fed committing 'monetary malpractice' by not cutting rates Marines to deploy on LA streets within two days with authority to detain civilians | Reuters Trump’s latest trade ‘deal’ with China underscores key U.S. disadvantage - POLITICO Gold tops euro to become central banks’ second favourite reserve asset Market Quick Take - 12 June 2025 | Saxo Available online and on X Gibraltar: Starmer agrees to hand control of border to Europe another win for Brits, strewth Ballymena riots demand a clear and united response - The Irish News view LA anti-ICE protests spread across US as National Guard deployed The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is historic: The market value of the US bond market has fallen to just 68% of the stock market’s value, the lowest ratio since the 1970s. This share has HALVED in 14 years as stocks have widely outpaced bonds. To put this differently, the US stock market is now 50% larger https://t.co/2TKo6MqUcr " / X China puts six-month limit on its ease of rare-earth export licenses, WSJ reports | Reuters Exclusive-China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar