Margin debt ⏫ / U.S-China talks conclude without deal / FOMC, then #META #MSFT / 8.8 ! / QRA & TBills!
- Stéphan
- Jul 30
- 3 min read
Powerful 8.8 ! margnitude earthquake
FOMC : FED expecting t hold steady today, every word coming out of Jerome's speech will be über analized though, QRA, TBills - see below
Markets : Treasuries surge most since June ahead of Government Debt Plans, LOADS of EU macro data next 3days (Q2 GDP, spanish inflation today, July Inflation and labour data in Germany tom and Friday with EU HICP data), Novo Nordisk 'olde' craze momentum trade fell again (new profit warning, competitive markets etc, been a terrible few years for healthcare #UNH, #UPS #HSBC #UBS ), China - US trade talks conclude without deal to prevent higher tariffs #HSI down a little, overnight momentum broken, #META and #MSFT report after the bell tonight + FOMC which should be a non event (although you never know, market mood can switch very quickly) >>> OVERALL, markets overdone, valuations, RSI all calling for a 'correcton', today's earnings, QRA, FOMC could be the trigger, slight momentum change yesterday too
Again, about that wonderful EU/US deal : the $600bn EU investment pledge is an "intention". The EU did not commit to US defence purchases. The EU did not commit to address non-tariff barriers in agriculture or digital taxes. Apart from that, a historic deal
QRA : The Treasury released their borrowing estimates : $1.6T in net new debt issuance over the next two quarters. About $500B of it is the TGA refill.
Donald Trump’s administration has denied permission for Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te to stop in New York en route to Central America, after China raised objections with Washington about the visit >> Donald clearly 'wants' a deal, he wants a big headline, CHINA knows this obviously, Yuan seems at play in talks too
US consumers are piling into credit card debt like never before/THREAD, and Margin debt just hit $1.008 trillion, the highest level in history. That’s more leverage than at the peak of the dot-com bubble or the 2008 crash
Keir Starmer has told his Cabinet that the UK will recognise Palestine as a state in September (France and few other EU contries too)
Treasuries Surge Most Since June Ahead of Government Debt Plans >>>> VERY important, if markets gets a clear hint of a pivot to TBills, some anticipated, as per this rally, over time ''could be'' a MAJOR pivot, so very nuanced language will influence swiftly, and the risk goes to back-end #duration as was in NOV 2023 !
Yields fell across all tenors after investors snapped up $44 billion of seven-year notes in a Tuesday afternoon sale.
Treasury officials may provide signals about the extent to which they are prepared to rely on sales of short-maturity bills rather than increasing sales of longer-maturity notes and bonds.
Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said Tuesday’s rally was “a last-minute setup for the risk that something dramatic comes from the refunding”.
Saxo Morning Brew July 30 2025 | Saxo Bank Switzerland data, earnings, FOMC
Earnins this week Earnings Calendar & Reports of US Companies — TradingView
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US consumers are piling into credit card debt like never before: Total US credit card debt hit $1.1 trillion in the week ending July 16th, matching a record high set in May. Year-to-date, credit card debt has risen by +$17 billion. Since April 2021, it has surged by a whopping https://t.co/EMjzqLma02" / X
#GDX Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Gold producers’ margins updated. We’re living through what could be described as the “Golden Age of Mining”, in my view. Yet, it’s striking to see that many mining stocks still trade as if gold were below $2,000/oz. A significant re-rating is still on the horizon, in my https://t.co/nocBrSOW6t" / X
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