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U.S ISM message / FED's reserve revaluation / APPL no new news / BoE to cut / Trump to meet Putin 'soon'

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • Aug 7
  • 4 min read
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  • Trump's new tariffs on India, Chips, pharma, Switzerland, Japan ... out of control again...

  • Markets : APPL saves the day yesterday (+5%..Tim Cook has bought his way around tariffs. Pay to play..recycled info though, 10th time we hear about it in the last few years, no later than Feb with ''$500bn over 4years..''), worth noting that about 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter results have beaten forecasts, pretty wild price action yeterday in long-end UST's, market expecting the new FED guv to be announced ''shortly''...Shadow FED in place, markets will move >> regime change etc!! , SPX500 trades on 22x fwd earnings, to push it towards 25x and current forecasts, you need NOT to believe in recession at all, and think AI trade will take it up there ?.. FED GOLD revaluation document..Healthcare Stocks now underperforming the S&P 500 by the largest margin in almost 25 years, BoE wildly expected to cut 25bps today, they should cut 50bps really, well they could signal it with a few 'ifs'

  • FED regime change is not whether it is this Kevin or the other, it's about how are the reformist going to feel about QE, policy intervention from global central banks, FX manipulation etc... this will have huge implications on growth stocks, backstopped government debt, yields etc

  • China’s Rare Earth Power Play: How “Economic Supremacy” Is Shaking America’s $1.2 Trillion Tech Industry to Its Core

  • India - U.S diplomatic situation / Thread

  • The July ISM Services report crushed what little remained of the “resilient labor market” narrative/Macro Thread from th excellent André ! - The ISM Services PMI index declined -0.7 points last month, to 50.1, the 2nd-lowest reading since June 2024. New orders fell -1 point, to 50.3, also the second-lowest since June 2024

  • U.S. Housing Market Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded, Student Loan Debt entering serious delinquency soars to 12.9%, the highest level ever recorded

  • #PLAT Platinum crunch comes to a head as US and China snap up metal, Platinum lease rates are going vertical. 14.78 percent for 1 month? That’s not normal

  • Spain cancels its plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the US, shifting defense spending to Europe..

  • Italy has finally approved a €13.5bn (£12bn) plan to build the world’s longest suspension bridge from the mainland to Sicily


tia...









The dollar has weakened, and US equities have underperformed RoW in 2025. Is the era of US exceptionalism over?


Let us face it. The 'exceptionalism' of the United States was supported by rising government deficits, a very loose monetary policy, and low cost of capital, hence the very significant outperformance of the US stock market relative to that of the rest of the world. But now there is a price for that exceptionalism: very high levels of debt and sticky inflation. Many market participants have pointed out the extreme weakness of the USD in recent months. However, if you look at the last 40 years, the USD is still quite strong and might weaken even more, not because the USA is losing its hegemony in the world, but mainly because policymakers in the USA want a weaker dollar and very low interest rates. This new macro policy setting could result in a renewed outperformance of the US stock market relative to that of the rest of the world (currency hedged).... couldn't agree more!





We should reflect on why we got this so wrong. This has been a diplomatic earthquake. However, Indians and India-focused scholars ignored the signs indicating that we were living in a perilous seismic zone. A thread  on the problems in our study of India-US follows





 
 
 

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