U.S PPI : 1st clear signs of tariffs impact ⬆️ / #UNH / BoJ / Overvalued Eq / Bessent #BTC / Ears & eyes on Alaska !

Stéphan
Aug 15
4 min read

U.S PPI...This is the highest increase in PPI since inflation was deemed “Transitory”
IMHO... The Fed should not cut at all in Sep (unless NFP is much below 100K for example).., most if not all the calls for cutting are political and incoherent..('we have the hottest economy and record stock market but rates too high and need to be 1.5 or 2% lower... really' ??). Just past week one single crypto (ETH) added nearly 1% of GDP...do we really need easier money ?? >>> July PPI up 0.9% MoM, far in excess of the +0.2% expected, highest jump since June 22, yoy PPI up 3.3%, highest since Feb (trending higher-clear that US companies are passing along current (and future) costs)>>> risk is a CPI spike is coming next
Markets : all ears and eyes on Alaska, high stakes summit (25% chance meetings doesnt succeed-Trump), Lavrov has arrived for the meeting in a shirt that says СССР (USSR), Berkshire been busy with new buys and still selling AAPL, in Japan, the ruling LDP is undertaking a never-before-used measure to potentially remove PM Ishiba from office over next several weeks (keep an eye on JGB's and JPY..), markets boosted by fiscal, steemie checks, Reverse REPO down to $28bn so thats near enough zero (additional $$$'s now must come from Bank reserves or QE...).. and calls for large FED cuts (Bessent) that are still priced in, the FED only cut once in it's life span when CPI was above 3%...last year ...
U.S. deficit grows to $291 billion in July despite tariff revenue surge
A lot of similar warnings signs lately, so far no impact (fiscal boost, IRS confirms treasury checks, liquidity plenty etc), but beware and play accoridngly, The US stock market is EXTREMELY overvalued: The Shiller P/E ratio on the S&P 500 hit 38.7x, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE burst
Tariff-driven price hikes may be hidden by products stuck in ‘the middle mile’
#BTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Crypto reserve: We are not going to be buying it, will use confiscated assets
The Trump administration is in early stage talks with Intel over a possible US government stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, sources said. The proposal emerged after President Trump met Intel’s CEO earlier this week and discussed a plan to revive the troubled US chipmaker. Intel shares rose +7% during the day and a further +4.6% post-market (BBG, FT, WSJ) - nice classic insider again ?...probably..
China's factory output, retail sales growth slump in blow to economy - China's factory output growth hits eight-month low. Retail sales also slump, highlighting demand woes at home. China's 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6%
Scott Bessent tells Europe to ‘put up or shut up’ over Russia sanctions, threatens India with more tariffs
U.K. government's plan for the NHS to pivot to offering fat-fighting drugs to save money longer term just got much more expensive (Eli Lilly raised prices by 170%..)