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Week ahead, NVDA reports adn FED meets ECB and others in Jackson Hole >> The premise: Long-term interest rates (may) have shifted higher post-pandemic, yet the Fed has not officially acknowledged this shift, this could be coming this week, IMHO he will try to push back against rate cut expectations in 2024 - close call though, BoAML, JPM, GS all hvae bit of a diff view >>> otherwise existing home sales, US services PMI, new homes, durable goods during week >>> perhaps the most overlooked US data last week was a Philly Fed rebounding materially, is manufacturing sector (thus inflation) rising from the abyss ? The ECB is set to send a letter of complaint to the Italian government about a 40% windfall tax on extra profits announced in a surprise move 2 weeks ago, Corriere della Sera reports BofA's Hartnett calls last week's China data "shocking" and warned of a credit event that would crash markets and REQUIRE a coordinated response". The Russian space agency has revealed its Luna-25 spacecraft has crashed into the moon "We’ve spent more than a decade trying to avoid a recession by propping things up with near free money, but little good has it done us"/ Times article US yields keep rising as international demand fades China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? The economic model that took the country from poverty to great-power status seems broken, and everywhere are signs of distress/WSJ, over the weekend : banks pushed to support the economy: China again pushed banks to support the flagging economy with increased lending and urged adjustment and policy optimization for home mortgages, the PBOC said. Beijing also plans to allow local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($206 billion) of special bonds to help repay debt, Caixin reported. Banks are set to cut their key lending rates further, and cut rates less than what markets expected today (thus not helping markets)...."Zombification" is increasing among property developers in China China urges BRICS to become geopolitical rival to G7 OPEC is now producing as much oil per day as they did in 2009. Except, global demand is up over 20% since then A major reason for German weakness, the FT notes, "is the global downturn in manufacturing, which hits Germany disproportionately hard as the sector contributes a fifth of its overall output — almost double the level of the US, France and the UK." FT-Interesting article about Ecuador's dollarization experience. Jácome notes that "dollarisation does not necessarily imply fiscal discipline", and later discusses "the favourable international environment" for Ecuador during this period/Thread Brazil develops tropical wheat Is the AI boom already over? Generative AI tools are generating less interest than just a few months ago Germany's PPI decreased to -1.10% in July, much lower than than consensus -0.2%, YoY, PPI have dropped 6% in July of 2023. Consensus of-5.1%, welcome but expected news Hilary is the first tropic storm to hit Southern California in 84 years Markets : Equity markets : seasonal weakness on higher vol, triggered by bond volatility, higher for longer yields, Jackson Hole comes at a pretty pivotal times for markets MSCI China : most closely tracked Chinese Eq benchmarks close to setting new 2023 low 2 weeks around Jackson Hole can bring some big swings in markets USDollar firmer in most parts, sitting at pretty critical levels/resistance, hasn't react much to recent more in UST yields higher, delayed reaction? Bonds, duration, supply, QT and so on the story still - Bridgewater interview below Nvidia reports earnings, Fed gathers in Jackson Hole: What to know this week (yahoo.com) Is the ChatGPT and Bing AI boom already over? - Vox Can Germany fix its economy? | Financial Times (ft.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 Interesting article about Ecuador's dollarization experience. Jácome notes that "dollarisation does not necessarily imply fiscal discipline", and later discusses "the favourable international environment" for Ecuador during this period. https://t.co/IEutAOiv3y" / X (twitter.com) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🌎 🇺🇸 US yields keep rising as international demand fades ⬇ 1- 🇨🇳 #China cuts US Treasury holdings to 14-year (chart from SCMP) 2- 🇸🇦 #Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries fell to the lowest level in more than six year (chart from Bloomberg) 3 - 🇯🇵 As Japanese long-term… https://t.co/qPNf6sXjjF" / X (twitter.com) QE Infinity on X: "Fascinating listen. There is essentially a massive margin call on real estate developers trying to rollover CRE debt. Meaning you can’t rollover debt rn without supplying huge amounts collateral. Many of these firms aren’t going to have the money to do this. Ugly https://t.co/iRXOx0QsAK" / X (twitter.com) Warren Buffett on LTCM: "We were getting calls on Sunday from people that had portfolios in trouble… You may not get the chance very often, but any calls on Sunday, you’re probably going to make money on... All you have to do is make sure you’re the callee and not the caller." We've eluded to it for a while, debt issue, debt spiral, treasury issuance, QT and so on, the whole 'liquidity' issue put a lot more eloquently in this 20mis podcast, its from early Aug, explains price actions this month.. and few cracks appearing.. but nonetheless worth a listen What Ever Happened to the Liquidity Hole? - YouTube bridgewater's Greg Jensen Only a brutal Darwinian process can reset Britain’s economy (telegraph.co.uk) These 6 shocking twists show just how bad China's economy is right now, says Bank of America | Business Insider India China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (msn.com) Evergrande shows China property 'zombification': 5 things to know - Nikkei Asia Spanish officials says wildfire on Tenerife was started deliberately | ITV News Canada wildfires: At least 30,000 households in British Columbia told to evacuate - BBC News Hilary: California braces for first tropical storm in 84 years as Mexico reels from its impact | World News | Sky News Lithium to niobium, export ban on 4 critical new energy metals on the table (business-standard.com) Russia’s first lunar mission in 47 years fails as spacecraft crashes into the moon | Evening Standard and India's Chandrayaan-3 mission will try to put a robot on the Moon (qz.com) Russia Sues Oligarch Melnichenko, Aims to Seize One of His Companies (businessinsider.com) Govt imposes 40% duty on onion exports to improve local supplies | India News - The Indian Express Cargill chartered ship sets sail to test wind power at sea | Reuters Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years | Czapp Vote blue, go green? A climate takeover of the Conservatives is an unlikely feat - CityAM The British Art Scene Feels Brexit Bite (politicshome.com) brexit fail(s) Michelin star London restaurant to close as MasterChef star blames Brexit - MyLondon ‘It all disappeared with Brexit’: Craft beer boom ends as more than 100 UK firms go bust | Beer | The Guardian Mass panic over energy, yet we give up our food security without a murmur (thetimes.co.uk) For the first time in modern history, Britain is no longer manufacturing the fertilisers which keep us all alive. Yet no-one even seems to have noticed.. Will Hurd on candidates defending Trump: ‘Kissing his butt is not going to help you’ | The Hill and Is Trump going down? (prospectmagazine.co.uk) SPX500 - trend from March broken - might well bounce a bit from here - market in 'sell the rally-reduce risk' mood - all about data, China, Jackson Hole

The sceptical case on generative AI. Hype is huge around the technology, but some uncomfortable truths are also being raised-FT (it's the view of one, nonetheless a few good points worth noting) Bitcoin (and others) plunged Thursday night on news that Elon Musk's SpaceX has sold all its holdings of the cryptocurrency Embattled developer China Evergrande Group has filed for bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises, as anxiety grows over China's worsening property crisis and a weakening economy + Dalio article : China needs to engineer a beautiful deleveraging Powell will keep his options open at Jackson Hole, data dependent (currently pretty strong!) U.S : More than a third of the nation’s bridges are in need of repair, and over 43,000 are in poor condition and classified as “structurally deficient,” according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association Norway hiked 25 bps move to 4.00%. Another hike is expected in Sep As per BoAML survey, most Fund Managers expect (have been expecting) long-term rates to fall, and yet, 10y UST is now higher and its previous peak last year, reaching a 16y high, Real yields on US 10-year treasuries are well above the 2018 high and nearing 2%. We are now at 2009 levels Japan core-core CPI data comes in above 4% again, hits 4.3% in July Texas power prices surged 6,000%, climbing toward the $5,000 price cap, leading the state grid to ask consumers to voluntary cut energy usage Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval of all necessary third-party transfer requests of F-16s to Ukraine so that Ukraine will get F-16s when the pilots are trained Markets : Bonds breaking lower will break equities, until equity markets break to save bonds.... , IF..TREASURIES don't rally properly on risk.off days, then it's a real problem for markets BTC and other coins hammered on Musk (does he need funding?), a great twist again UST's long-end been selling off hard, though if/when things break in equity on some sort of 'credit event', then they will rally again in short.term - wild times ahead Bond volatility is slowly spreading in other parts of the markets If some sort fo credit event happens, JPY will do well, it's oversold, USDJPY & CROSSJPY's will correct lower. JPN inflation still pretty firm! and we had a JGB20y auction failure this week too Bitcoin Dives: Elon Musk's SpaceX News Sends Cryptocurrency Tumbling | Investor's Business Daily (investors.com) as.."Tesla’s deliveries in China last month hit a six-month low, with around 31,000 cars sold locally, even as overall sales of battery-powered cars grew more than 30%. In comparison, Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 230,000 vehicles in July." SpaceX reported a profit in the first quarter, WSJ says (cnbc.com) selling coins? Also, Coinbase has made a statement saying its systems are experiencing issues and they are working on a fix. Say that funds remain secure The parallel worlds of green transformation | Saxo Group (home.saxo) The sceptical case on generative AI | Financial Times (ft.com) Why U.S. bridges are in such bad shape (cnbc.com) that's a lot of infrastructure work to go! Mortgage rates top 7%, hitting 21-year high (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 It may seem like terrible luck and amazing coincidence that so many things are going wrong in the Chinese economy at the same time, but of course it is not coincidence at all. This is how systemic imbalances work themselves out. https://t.co/k0iulJZ89T" / X (twitter.com) China Needs to Engineer a Beautiful Deleveraging | LinkedIn China's Economic Model Is 'Washed up on the Beach': Veteran Investor (businessinsider.com) The German economy: from European leader to laggard (economist.com) China, Russia, energy policy.. what else.. Restructuring at UBS Headquarters Has Begun (finews.asia) Evergrande seeks US court nod for $32 billion debt overhaul, as China economic fears mount - SWI swissinfo.ch Texas Power Prices Surge 6,000% as Grid Calls for Conservation (yahoo.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) PiQ on X: "🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 𝗨𝗦 𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗦 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗙-𝟭𝟲𝗦 𝗧𝗢 𝗨𝗞𝗥𝗔𝗜𝗡𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝗗𝗘𝗡𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗡𝗘𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗟𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗦 Full Story → https://t.co/pV7e0fuwJQ Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval… https://t.co/KvBjb1nlPR" / X (twitter.com) 'Apocalypse' selling of Adyen shares spooks investors (msn.com) brutal ! Adyen’s $20 Billion Wipeout Caught Almost Everyone by Surprise. Neither analysts nor short sellers were ready for stock’s dive Slowest sales growth since 2018 IPO sent shares into tailspinBy Paul Jarvis and Lisa Pham (Bloomberg) -- Almost no-one saw Adyen NV’s €18 billion ($20 billion) share plunge coming. Prior to Thursday’s 39% drop, the majority of analysts had a buy or equivalent rating. And of the four out of 35 tracked by Bloomberg that had a sell, even Citigroup Inc.’s Street-low target of €1,050 was made to look optimistic. Adyen shares closed at €898.4 in Amsterdam. Sunak commits to triple lock hinting pensions could rise by eight per cent (cityam.com) BBC Sport on X: "Legendary broadcaster Sir Michael Parkinson has died at the age of 88. Of the many incredible guests he interviewed over the years, he said boxer Muhammad Ali was his favourite. Here's a clip from one of those memorable interviews from our @BBCArchive https://t.co/3LaC7ckoBV" / X (twitter.com) Ulez: More than 300 cameras damaged or stolen in four months - BBC News when gentle folks have to pay hard cash it gets tricky. New Zealand has pushed back the start of taxes on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions to give farmers more time to adjust to the requirements Women's World Cup final: 'We wouldn't think twice for the men' so open pubs early for Lionesses, councils urged (cityam.com) quite! US Hit by Record Billion-Dollar Disasters Even Before Maui Fire - Bloomberg Canada wildfire: Yellowknife evacuees turned away from full flights - BBC News India: At least 72 people killed in flash floods and landslides triggered by torrential rain in Himalayan region | World News | Sky News good grief Gotthard Base Tunnel: World’s longest rail tunnel to close for months (cnbc.com) That's a bummer for those travelling north-south regularly Gen Z, millennial couples say marriage too expensive in this economy (cnbc.com) Warren Buffett donates $27 million Berkshire stock (yahoo.com) Former Watergate attorney makes case for cameras in courtroom for Trump Jan. 6 trial | The Hill that would-will be fun to watch ! DAX here - but as stated above many similar patterns in major equity indices have a great weekend

FED minutes : hawkish >>> no wonder with such strong data, Atlanta Fed GDPNow near 5.8% ! for Q3 GDP (even if it will probably come down some - hopefully!), retail sales and so on, U.S macro remains very strong - China macro pretty poor to say the least, stormy times ahead, check technical picture below from Saxo and Bridgewater ! Zhongrong International Trust Co. missed payments on dozens of products and has no immediate plan to make clients whole, indicating troubles at the embattled Chinese shadow bank are deeper than previously known, China Latest: Country Garden warned of "major uncertainties" in bond redemption and said trading of some local notes will remain halted Many economists willing to ignore Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and now (quite possible) banks including JPM. >>> IMHO, the circumstances are quite different from the 2011 scenario when S&P downgraded the U.S., in 2023, the fiscal situation is far worse and much more worrisome “It’s the tendency for rates to be higher that I think most investors are missing,” PGIM's Greg Peters. “I don’t think investors have accepted that reality,” nor digested the fact that policymakers cannot “easily and readily cut rates” as they once did The head of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has expressed concern that political resistance to climate and environmental measures is spreading from the US to the UK and China abandons Paris agreement, making U.S. (and others..) efforts painful and pointless Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries has fallen 41% since early 2020, to the lowest level in more than six years. China sold $11.3 billion of the debt in June to bring its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since mid-2009 -Vietnamese EV maker VinFast is now worth more than Ford and GM after Nasdaq debut RICO : The fourth criminal prosecution of former President Trump makes use of a law most commonly associated with organized crime Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are ready and waiting for stocks to plunge and bargains to pop up, Robert Kiyosaki says >>> think we can easily agree on a 10pct correction in the near future Tesla made its second round of price cuts in China this week, further fueling concerns of reigniting a price war UK launches £1 billion fintech fund to compete with Silicon Valley Coinbase gets green light to let US investors trade crypto futures >>> should not change odds of spot BTC, but shows coinbase doing the right thing with regs to help the cause RBNZ leave rates unchanged but signal no cuts until 2025 Markets : SPX500 closed 2days in a row now below the 50dma (4472), firs time since late March 2023, given positioning, sell rallies as long as we stay below said levels BIG tech update below, IMHO right now we are possibly on the cusp of a few bigger things to happen over next few weeks, September looms, beware stormy weather ahead >>> UST yields-duration, USD, EMGFX, Nasdaq, as usual all the same ish trade, do not underestimate, change of momentum now that say SPX500 trades below 50dma (if we make a new lows most days etc..as we did again last night), NQ same picture, FANGS+ etc etc see techs below USD stays bid together with duration selling off still, higher yields, UST 10's to 5% ? that's the risk over next few months/weeks, September etc 20230821_E-CATALOGUE_Tjukurpa-Kutjara-Kiritji-Yankaltjunku-Two-Stories_LR_P.pdf (redotgallery.com) New Warakurna Exhibition - truly brilliant stuff - exhibition by my good friend GP - feel free to get in touch with him direct Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update | Saxo Group (home.saxo) and Technical analysis DAX40 AEX25 BEL20 CAC40 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) - main points below S&P 500. Downtrend. Broken below key support at 4,455. Likely to drop below 4,400. Next support at 4,340 Nasdaq 100 Downtrend . Support at 14,750 HangSeng bearish. Testing support at 18343. Next support at 18,052 DAX Bearish. Rejected at 16K. Likely to drop to 15,482 support area AEX25 Bearish. Support at 748 CAC40 Key support at 7,251. If broken downtrend to 7,100 EURUSD Likely to be range bound between 1.0833 and 1.1065 Dollar Index rejected at key resistance at 103.28 GBPUSD is struggling for upside momentum USDJPY broken resistance at 145. Next is 148. Could form top pattern EURJPY above strong resist at 158. Likely to move to 160.60 AUDUSD forming bottom and reversal pattern Gold XAUUSD Close to testing June low at 1,892. RSI bearish Silver XAGUSD testing support at around 22.15 Copper below 370. Next support at 360-356 Brent rejected at resistance at 88.20. Expect correction down to around 83 Dutch Gas uptrend. US 10-year uptrend. Could move to 2022 peak at 4.32 CTA : this is no longer a "buy the dip" market 1. "SPX is currently through GS short term CTA threshold trigger for the first time since May 24th and below the S&P500 50-day moving average. There has been a clear shift in sentiment over the past few weeks..." 2."Investors have shifted their trading behavior from a BTD “Buy the dip” market to STR “Sell the Rally” market. This is a new change in tone and sentiment. This is something that I have not said often..." (Scott Rubner) - confirmed! 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors digest Fed meeting minutes (msn.com) Norway oil fund chief attacks UK backlash against green measures | Financial Times (ft.com) China Abandons Paris Agreement, Making U.S. Efforts Painful and Pointless | The Heritage Foundation good grief China's Zhongrong Misses Payments as Fallout Spreads (yahoo.com) Protestors Hit Zhongrong Office Over Missed Payments (finews.asia) Bond Yields Are Moving Higher on Growth, Not Just Inflation, PGIM Says - Bloomberg What Ever Happened to the Liquidity Hole? (bridgewater.com) Nothing 'really' new for those following closely, couple of weeks old, but nonetheless pretty interesting take before and after Buffett and Burry Are Waiting for a Stock Market Crash: Kiyosaki (businessinsider.com) Bank of Ireland apologises for IT blunder that saw extra money appear in some bank accounts – The Irish Times the police had to stand in front of cash machines to stop folks taking cash out :-) UBS: was es braucht, damit die Schweiz die Grossbank nie retten muss (nzz.ch) Ecuador election: 'I'm wearing a bulletproof vest 24 hours a day' - BBC News what a life Lyft earnings 'a step in the right direction,' but the existential crisis is far from over (yahoo.com) Coinbase gets green light to let US investors trade crypto futures (yahoo.com) Saudi Arabia's Hoard of US Treasuries at Six-Year Low in Embrace of Risk - Bloomberg EV maker VinFast is now worth more than the likes of Ford and GM (cnbc.com) Thousands of World War Two aerial photos open to public for first time | UK News | Sky News What is Rico? Georgia uses racketeering law to charge Donald Trump | Georgia | The Guardian Pershore man's clifftop sheep rescue makes global headlines - BBC News good man! UK launches £1 billion fintech growth fund to compete with US (cnbc.com) EURUSD 1.05 ?

Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of US banks including JP Morgan Chase Steen/Saxo's latest : stagflation light ahead : This will mean that the US will experience a period of high inflation and slow economic growth. This will be a difficult period for the US economy, but it is something that we believe is unavoidable. So it's time for policy makers to be afraid of the answers to their questions: Debt is not free, economies do not grow from lack of productivity, and you cannot just leave voters and economic agents behind while the government's hand increases. This coming stagflation will be a positive step towards resetting the economy to focus on the real challenges: better, cleaner energy, a bigger real economy, and much better education and social policies' GSAM indicating their preference for bonds over equities right now:“ ... we have seen a lot of volatility when it comes to inflation. But that also creates the opportunity to buy bonds at a real rate that we haven’t seen in well over a decade” As China announces that it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment data (because the rate is very high lol), a reminder that they have been steadily publishing fewer and fewer economic indicators in recent years as the data has become less rosy J.P. Morgan raises the 2023 global emerging market corporate high yield default forecast to 9.7% from 6%, says China property expected to account for nearly 40% of 2023’s corporate default volumes, followed by 35% from Russia and 12% from Brazil Investors are the least bearish since February 2022 in the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, with cash levels plunging from 5.3% to 4.8% U.S retails : 3mos annualized change up to +7% in August (best since Oct 2022), pretty strong!, however U.S NAHB housing market index much weaker at 50.0 (forecast was 56 and prev 56) Fed President Neel Kashkari remained hawkish, emphasizing data dependence. He acknowledged the most recent inflation reports as positive, however he is still not convinced inflation is on the path to 2% >>> Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees 3Q growth at 5.0% up from 4.1% last, not going to pause on this then + retail sales above RBA minutes : slight bias towards holding steady at next meeting - close call. Reserve Bank of New Zealand leave cash rate unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected Canada inflation jumped (back) to 3.3% in July up from 2.8% in June >>> important move back up given that BoC was one of the first to pause in Jan, only to restart due to inflation, implication/influence Fed talks ? Russian court bans UBS, Credit Suisse from subsidiary disposals Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? / Thread Markets : Real yields on 10-year Treasuries on 2009 highs +1.85% (from -1.1% in early 2022), China Holdings of US Treasuries drop to lowest level since 2009, USDCNH 7.32, grinding higher, a deval is very dangerous from here, in term of sentiment in China, gives incentive to bypass capital controls, hence PBOC intervening, trying to keep the trade balance in check, stop a spiral down.. >>> the whole chinese chess board of a real estate is creating a few cracks in a few EMG areas, so we need to clearly beware (globally) if USDCNH had a decent push up GOLD pretty key levels around here 200dma, XAGUSD 22.60 The FANG+ index retested its Q4 2021 highs almost perfectly and seems to have formed a double top - given concentration of risk, S&P7's etc - must keep an eye on USDollar on the cusp of a decent move up overall, vs EMG, USDJPY (expectations BoJ stops it 145-148 area..), EURUSD woul drequire weekly close below 1.0875 probably, CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area (chart) Stagflation could bring a short-term uptrend in the US Dollar | Saxo (home.saxo) UK inflation falls to 6.8% in year to July - BBC News Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks (cnbc.com) Goldman sees the best opportunity in bonds in a decade. How to play it (cnbc.com) Fill your boots! Fed rate cuts are coming in Q2 2024, Goldman Sachs says (yahoo.com) Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market (yahoo.com) China property stocks tumble, led by Country Garden, Longfor, Sunac (cnbc.com) John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter: "As China announces that it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment data (because the rate is very high lol), a reminder that they have been steadily publishing fewer and fewer economic indicators in recent years as the data has become less rosy https://t.co/tdMDWhPeOA https://t.co/ZuE6p6ZZAP" / X Missed Trust Payments Trigger Alarms in China (finews.asia) Travellers will see queuing time double at French border due to post-Brexit checks | The Independent or avoid the summer and busy bank holidays, IF you can War photographer James Nachtwey: Capturing conflict, heroism, history | 60 Minutes - CBS News terrible, awful, horrific stuff - stop this! >>> James Nachtwey was in Ukraine at the start of the war, photographing the bodies of civilians that Russian troops had executed. Nachtwey said that of all the military brutality he captured in his career, the Russians “stood apart.” bne IntelliNews - Niger and beyond: Francophone credit delivers coup de grâce Russia sanctions: ‘Switzerland is part of the problem’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Denmark has one of the steepest declines in exports to Russia. Total exports (top left, black) are down -57% from H1 '19 to H1 '23, similar to Finland's -65% drop (top right, black). Baltics look bad. Latvia is +19% (bottom left, black). Estonia +14% (bottom right). @LasseEgeris https://t.co/ByAwExE9rz" / X GOP sees turnout disaster without Trump | The Hill >>> Republican strategists are worried that if former President Trump doesn’t secure the GOP’s presidential nomination next year, or if he is kept off the ballot because of his mounting legal problems, it could spell a voter turnout disaster for their party in 2024 Will America eventually tire of Trump's legal troubles? | The Spectator Vivek Ramaswamy says he’s the best candidate to push Trump’s agenda forward | PBS NewsHour Bloomberg on Twitter: "Argentina's Javier Milei, a presidential candidate often compared to Donald Trump, surprises by leading a primary race. @manuelatobiasm has more https://t.co/0wYRvbkkkk https://t.co/7waI9E66kN" / X thoughts---? Trump co-conspirators never got paid by Trump team (cnbc.com) totally normal Russian court bans UBS, Credit Suisse from subsidiary disposals | Reuters Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Chart Of The Day - Retail Investor REIT Allocations Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? Yesterday I shared a chart on Twitter (well, what is now called “X”, but as I’ve been on it since 2009 I still call it Twitter) — it showed fund managers… https://t.co/NQKqGo2Tow" / X just to show or say that a lot has been priced in by markets - already..... the very contrarian investors will start to notice Japan's longest-living people do this 5-minute exercise every day (cnbc.com) CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area

EMG fallout, Argentina devalued its currency by about 20% and hiked rates to 118%.. after right-wing populist Javier Milei won Sunday's presidential primary elections >>> 20+ years ago, I recall talking about hedging strategies to some you, USD/ARS was 1.0000, great stories.. it is now at 350 to the $ BEIJING (Reuters) -An unusually public claim by a Chinese professor (Peking University professor Zhang Dandan) the country's youth jobless rate might have hit close to 50% in March has stoked a debate about official data and a soft labour market, despite curbs on negative portrayals of the economy, while the National Bureau of Statistics said that month's jobless rate for people between the ages of 16 and 24 was just under 20% only >>> so now, they are not going to report youth data as they are looking at changing how they collate it Chinese authorities are considering cutting the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008 >>> 'deeflation' in China? Will it spread to the West? that's a risk going fwd as it really looks like a credit crisis looming in China >>> China lowered key interest rates, even though some talk of a surprise, it clearly isn't, markets increasingly driven by expectations of more sugar to come one way or another, not always a good sign Central Bank of Russia hikes 350bps to 12% in 'extraordinary meeting' after Ruble crash through the 100 level.. NY Fed survey of consumer exp : showing a broad decline in inflation expectations and improving consumer finances, short-term infl exp feel to 3.5%, while 3 and 5y exp declined to 2.9%.. UBS to pay $1.4 billion fine for fraud in mortgage-backed securities, the combine fines of UBS and CS over the last 20years, is a staggering +$30bn US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being refilled, nearly150k barrel increase over the last week is the biggest since Jun 2020 (reserve decline over the past 2 years is over 270m barrels, so long way to go) UK Unemployment rate increases in three months to June as wages continue to grow >>> UK wages growth fuels infl concerns, private sector pay rose 8.2% in Q2 Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom, JPY failed to rally Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals Markets : SPX back 'just' above 50dma, but beware when all/most is driven daily by ODTE options flows! Duration, yields making new highs, plenty of '20+y ears highs in 10y yields' out there, including 30y mortgage rates heading above 8% in many parts of the U.S >>> helping USDollar still, JPY did not react positively to a very strong Q2 GDP data EMGFX could awaken again, been plenty of buyers there, if US rates continue, Argentina, Russia, China and few others could suddenly be questioned.. SpotGamma on Twitter: "This is pretty wild - don't think I've seen a full day of almost pure 0DTE Purple: all S&P500 options flow Teal: 0DTE S&P500 flow The direct overlap of the lines suggests nearly all meaningful flow was 0DTE https://t.co/qSBcnS8b6a" / X Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom (msn.com) Credit Suisse Shareholders File Suit in Zurich Court (finews.asia) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "After hitting its lowest level since 1983, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being replenished. 142k barrel increase over the last week is the biggest since June 2020. The decline in reserves over the past 2 years: 273 million barrels. https://t.co/6sB3AwFvzU" / X Russian Ruble Tumbles Past 100 Against Dollar—Here’s Why That’s Significant (forbes.com) does it turn into one of those nightmare scenario ? hard to argue why it should not, if sanctions stay on for years or decade to come >>> hikes by 350bps to 12% Argentina devalues its currency, jacks up interest rates after shock far-right primary win - CNBC Africa Donald Trump and allies charged in Georgia over bid to overturn 2020 US election | Evening Standard Broken wheel likely cause of Gothard tunnel derailment - SWI swissinfo.ch pas chic Unemployment rate increases in three months to June as wages continue to grow | ITV News Analysis: Why record wage growth will give the Bank of England kittens - and see them raise rates again - CityAM Tesla reassures Chinese users on data security amid spying concerns | TechCrunch China halts youth jobless data as economy falters - BBC News China economy: July industrial output, fixed asset, retail miss expectations (cnbc.com) Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals | Financial Times (ft.com) madness USDJPY - up and away till BoJ makes a stand

US 30-Year Treasury auction signals weak demand to wrap up week of big sales >>> U.S CPI came in as expected, ex-shelter came in basically flat, shelter is the main remaining issue Fed President Mary Daly downplayed the improvement in inflation data and emphasized the data dependence of upcoming rate decisions. Fed's Collins: We are near or perhaps at a sufficiently restrictive level of rates, Feds Harker:The Fed is making progress on its inflation fight, Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be>>> they mostly sound like it's nearly done, Nov still in play, only just Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be RBA Lowe: Things are moving in the right direction. Too early to declare victory, rates are restrictive so we are calibration stage with policy Fed QT paused last week, balance sheet remain almost unchg at $8.2trn FT-The ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ landing. Straightenin’ the curves, yeah, flattenin’ the hills Apple has bought back nearly $600bn in stock over the past 10 years, which is larger than the market cap of 490 Co's in the S&P500 Twittereee : X : “Lawful But Awful” Content to be hidden... Glencore : We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end-of-life electronics, and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds That's what you call a hike! : Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank has hiked its main interest rate to 25%, up from 11%, it said in a statement dated Tuesday UBS voluntarily terminates guarantee agreement with Swiss government US Sec. of State Blinken: The release of Americans in prison in Iran is a positive step OPEC sees global #oil demand rising over 2 million barrels per day this year and next year. Sees oil supplies rising by about 1.4 or 1.5 million barrels this year and next year, now, if true, in my calculation, we have a shortage... this would mean $100 WTI again soon... Markets : Forget about VIX, it's all about ODTE on daily basis, we've had a few examples lately, when SPX looks 'happy^' and has a sudden decent dip daily, all about #ODTE ! SPX500 near that 'holy' trend support and just above 50gma around here 4473, M NQ is breaking/has broken 50dma at 15300 already, ALL about weekly close to confirm this downside risk USDollar firmer together with UST yields, initially 'unch' after U.S CPI, clear reaction yesterday in long-end and thus supply looks to be 'the' main issue going forward, CROSSJPY's taken previous stops 158+ eurjpy etc, maybe head-fake let's see over next few days.. Short-term real rates moving higher, real rates will continue to surge unless core inflation starts to accelerate (with rent softening) or unless the Fed starts cutting US 30-Year Treasury Auction Yielded 4.189%, Highest Since 2011 - Bloomberg AI is still driving Big Tech earnings (yahoo.com) Tech earnings season is winding down, and if there’s one takeaway from the results so far, it’s that the AI craze is still driving the narrative for industry’s biggest companies. Publication of 2022 Annual and Climate Reports (glencore.com) The ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ landing | Financial Times (ft.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.3 trillion. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate near a 54-year low at 3.5%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? https://t.co/bdI7luW2Ik" / X X CEO Linda Yaccarino explains reason for getting rid of Twitter name (msn.com) Sounds great, I was listening to most of this chat, please tell me how and who will define "healthy speech," and "awful but lawful speech"? Boris Johnson’s House of Lords appointees donate £17m to Tory Party | openDemocracy classic Carlton Club donates £250k to party MPs after Covid handouts (thelondoneconomic.com) UBS voluntarily terminates guarantee agreement with Swiss government - SWI swissinfo.ch Pakistan’s army is back in charge of politics (economist.com) Michael Pettis on Twitter: ""The contribution of high value-added industries such as new energy and biotechnology to China’s total economic inputs picked up in July, due to growing labor and technology inputs." https://t.co/z11acINeKY" / X How biological battery company Bioo makes renewable energy from soil (cnbc.com) Hawaii wildfires: At least 36 people dead after flames destroy large parts of town in Maui | World News | Sky News have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Ahead of U.S CPI : The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes, just a 15% chance of a Sep rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in Nov, expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing Joe Biden signed an order that will limit US investment in some Chinese firms: It will cover semiconductor, quantum computing and AI, but will exclude passive investments and possibly publicly traded securities "The share of U.S consumers who financed a vehicle with a monthly payment of $1,000 or more reached a new all-time peak of 17.1% in Q2, up from 16.8% in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q2 of 2019." - Edmunds B of A: “.. US debt to GDP is at an all-time high, and the US now ranks in the bottom 5 (vs. Top 5 in 2000), in line with Emerging Europe. Worldwide Governance Indicators data show the US shifting closer to emerging economies on other measures like political stability ..” For the first time since 2011, total US bank credit is now YoY negative UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all Markets : Main indices a little softer under pressure, a lot going on underneath, any company missing on earnings getting a smashed, owned positions at risk etc.. Energy stocks are once again outperforming overall markets 5-year, 5-year USD inflation swap highest since 2014, all about CPI Rice soars to highest since 2008 on rising threats to supply Right now we have high(er) interest rates, higher gas prices, higher oil prices and higher tightening lending standards, high valuation, concentrated risk (S&P7) + governments loaded up with debts Natural-Gas Prices Soar on Australian Labor Dispute - WSJ UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all (yahoo.com) In Depth: Chinese Banks Balk at Regulatory Support for Rate Cuts to Existing Mortgages - Caixin Global Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes. There's just a 15% chance of a September rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in November. The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing https://t.co/CgZsiaIouq" / X MarketReader on Twitter: "The next trader in our Famous Traders series is John Paulson. Famous traders are typically known for an approach to investing that can be used over and over to generate alpha over time. But there are exceptions to this. Some traders are famous for making a huge bet on a single… https://t.co/SIK5k6q8wn" / X Joe Weisenthal on Twitter: "Trimflation! Extremely cool stuff from @MattHardigree, building on some of @IsabellaMWeber's work and data that he himself has collected, to show how much the Big 3 prioritized building higher cost, higher margin models while their capacity was impaired. https://t.co/OlV0rnToP8 https://t.co/EzWEr6VcyF" / X Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "European natural gas jumped >€40/MWh for the first time since June amid the possibility of worker strikes in Australia — highlighting market jitters over potential supply disruptions. (BBG) https://t.co/RQE0LDkrrP" / X UBS: Panik wegen Risky Rusky? - Inside Paradeplatz Here's Why Hapag-Lloyd (ETR:HLAG) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors (yahoo.com) Valuation, solid balance-sheet Rice Soars to Highest Since 2008 on Rising Threats to Supply - Bloomberg Vienna lawyer to help tenants in Austria sue landlords for overpaid rent - The Local The average Manhattan rent just hit a new record of $5,588 a month (cnbc.com) Holiday in Belgium, says Tui boss, after scorching summer | Financial Times and UK !

China CPI -0.3%, Exp.-0.4% (YoY), and PPI -4.4%, Exp. -4.0% >>> it's allowed to wrtie deeeflation or China inflation 'deflated' ..(as China bans negative economic commentary, mentions of "Deflation") and China's major state-owned banks seen selling dollars to buy yuan in the onshore market, been going on for a while, little or no impact for now >>> >>> now, The consensus estimate for Thursday's U.S CPI report is 3.3%, up from 3.0% last month which was the lowest since March 2021 Italian, European banks >> EU classic : banks start to perform well, so they tax them, mind you banks had super easy access to liquidities/funding for 10+ years, thus taxpayer may well be intitled to some cashback Companies with good ESG scores pollute as much as low-rated rivals. The finding holds true even when researchers looked only at the environmental part of the metric Beyond Meat sales fall 30% in setback for vegan burgers. Firm once valued at $10bn blames ‘interest groups’ for spreading health concerns Fed's Harker: We will probably start cutting rates sometime next year, probably one of the most-dovish comments from any Fed member in over a year, meanwhile...US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index Q3: 4.12% (prev 3.87%) ..another hike and not cut if true.. BRICS summit, economic shift: Exploring a new currency and possible de-dollarization. While finding an alternative payments solution is fraught with challenges, bloc members nonetheless stay bullish to explore such a possibility MS : The Senior Loan Officer Survey results “support our team’s forecast that loan growth will be minimal through the rest of the year ..” FBI official who worked Trump-Russia probe, later accused of conspiring with Russia, to plead guilty "There's a massive amount of Treasuries entering the market over the next few months. An onslaught of issuance.... In the Repo market, this all points to one thing: Higher Repo rates. More Treasury supply in the market requires cash to fund it." - Curvature Brazil is hosting the Amazon nations in a bid to save the world's largest rainforest. President Lula seeks to follow through on his pledge to stop all deforestation in the Amazon by 2030 SF Fed research: "Banks that experienced larger market value losses on their securities during the monetary tightening cycle in 2022 extended relatively less credit to firms." New factories are been built across the U.S and economists are giving President Biden a sizable chunk of the credit thanks to recent laws encouraging new infrastructure, clean energy, and semiconductors Markets : EURJPY toppy still 157-158 area, GBPJPY 183 etc, other crosses similar picture, AUDJPY has the weak China story in there too though nice little bounce since yesterday, FXland not particularly exiting but watch out USDCNH 7.25+, EURUSD below 1.0900 etc Equity markets : relatively quiet on the surface (main indices), pretty volatile down below, this market doesn't 'pardon' anyone who's missing on earnings or lower guidance Bonds, all about supply this week (short-term test 100bn), and over next few weeks and months, with U.S CPI tomorrow key 'That's just bureaucracy': Inside Biden’s campaign to keep the factory boom going (yahoo.com) but more work to do on this front Elon Musk Says We Need Way More Electricity. Is He Right? - WSJ 'Unless legal barriers to new electricity infrastructure are resolved, America's plan to recharge manufacturing—to say nothing of the transport sector—may fall short.' BRICS summit, economic shift: Exploring a new currency and possible de-dollarization | Al Arabiya English >>> Dubai media is now reporting the BRICS summit as an "economic shift", but still not even a murmur from western media Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios (frbsf.org) As one would expect.. An ‘Oppenheimer Moment’ For The Progenitors Of AI - NOEMA (noemamag.com) Xcellent read - no matter which side of the fence you are on, investor or not, IMHO, AI is not going away, not a chance, au contraire, but revenue scheme, who wins economically speaking and so on, is tricky, and however long it takes, years perhaps... it's not instant mega winner like the lottery.. and anyway it's all about the data in reality. This German Unicorn Is Trying To Take On Google Translate And ChatGPT (forbes.com) Rihard Jarc on Twitter: "This one is a real treat. An exclusive interview with former decade long $GOOGL CEO Eric Schmidt on Generative AI: - Explains that the next scale goal is LLMs that will cost $1B to train (from $100M ones that we use today) and that we could be looking at $100B ones in the… https://t.co/T2kinswUmy" / X Companies with good ESG scores pollute as much as low-rated rivals | Financial Times (ft.com) Surprise surprise... Soaring sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro, widely used for weight loss, sends Eli Lilly to new heights (yahoo.com) Macron suffers new Africa setback with Niger coup (france24.com) Empire rising, falling, fighting each other, now China and Russia mostly involved in Africa (over the last 5-10years let's say) Beyond Meat sales fall 30% in setback for vegan burgers (thetimes.co.uk) A great fab, too expensive and bit too much salt for my liking.. and now with inflation and consumers tightening their belts..IMHO, if anyone doesn't want to eat meat, then don't WeWork warns it might go out of business in stunning fall | The Straits Times WeWork's peak private valuation was $47BN It went public in a SPAC merger with a $8BN valuation It now has a market cap of $400MM - truly amazing - WeWork bonds yield almost 90% >>> p.s. there are many great positive example out there too Wind turbine unit issues cost Siemens Energy $2.4bn (msn.com) Why does the Republic of Ireland have so much surplus cash? - BBC News no Brexit..? Charles McGonigal, Trump-Russia probe FBI official accused of conspiring with Russia to plead guilty - Washington Times Macquarie’s Bradley on Thames Water: ‘There’s nothing in our returns that I’m embarrassed about’ (infrastructureinvestor.com) ...really.. Chelsea investigated by Premier League for potential financial rule breaches during Abramovich era | UK News | Sky News Welcome to the Slow Boat from China (finews.asia) plenty of views out there that China is/will struggle with 'boring' growth for years to come, dealing with 'overbuild' of everything of the last 10y India is banning Chinese parts from its military drones (qz.com) China Buys 23 Tons Of Gold In 9th Straight Month Of Purchases, Total Rises To Record 2,137 Tons | ZeroHedge seems like a lot of XAU Brazil hosts the Amazon nations in a bid to save the rainforest (qz.com) Glencore on Twitter: "We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end-of-life electronics, and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds. Read our 2022 Annual Report to learn more." / X Today in Switzerland: A roundup of the latest news on Wednesday - The Local AUDUSD held that big 0.6500 area - so far anyway - U.S: CPI key

Moody’s places credit ratings of 6 major U.S. banks on review for downgrade, ''mounting funding costs, office exposure'' (and downgraded a few regional banks too) and in Italy : Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet approved a surprise tax on the “extra profits” of banks this year Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in 12mos, Mr Market starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields Food prices may never fall again following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says UBS shuffles bank bosses in bid to better compete with Wall Street. Around 80% of Hong Kong-based investment banking staff at Credit Suisse will be laid off. What did Ermotti know of the 'fusion' ? AMZN to Meet Regulators as U.S. Considers Possible Antitrust Suit. Amazon’s meetings with the Federal Trade Commission, known as “last rites” meetings, are typically a final step before the agency votes on filing a lawsuit Cars have more tech than ever — and drivers are increasingly frustrated with their door handles, screens, and other features Brazil central bank names its digital currency 'DREX,' scheduled for 2024 launch No more hydrogen trains | Rail company that launched world's first H2 line last year opts for all-electric future. State-owned LNVG to buy 102 battery trains and 27 catenary-connected models in order to phase out diesel, says Lower Saxony government Goldman Commodities Research Chief Jeff Currie set to leave Bank China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports, missing expectations Markets : German 30y yield to the highest since early 2014 Broad 'sell-hedge' on rallies mood on recent bumper rallies in SPX7's perhaps and AI stocks Equity markets do not want a stronger U.S CPI this week, Moddy's on banks not helpful for the sector, credit is becoming an issue, HK/Chinese property developer and so on. IF, there was to be some 'seasonal' unwinding of 'owned positions', Aug and Sep can often be tough, particularly after such a strong run up in this AI related short-covering rally #NVDA ertc USDollar slightly firmer, AUDUSD massive levels around 0.6500 (chinese data remains very poor), similar to Eq, clear risk for markets is stronger usd from here GOLD, XAGUSD struggling to hold rallies lately Moody’s places credit ratings of 6 major U.S. banks on review for downgrade (msn.com) BOJ will need to be more flexible given inflation uncertainties - Nikkei Asia Country Garden says its cash flow shows periodic liquidity stress - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Seems most or all property developers are or will be in trouble..amazing China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports, missing expectations (cnbc.com) SoftBank Group books surprise first-quarter loss | Reuters Glencore appeases shareholders with more buybacks after steep drop in profits (cityam.com) Inventories remains low, which is a risk going forward Palantir (PLTR) Q2 earnings report 2023 (cnbc.com) Food prices may never fall again following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says | Business News | Sky News >>> we tend to agree, but with their records maybe it's what was required for lower prices!! Arriva tassa sugli extraprofitti delle banche, fondi per i mutui - Notizie - Ansa.it Italy Surprises Markets With New Tax on ‘Extra’ Profits of Banks (yahoo.com) No more hydrogen trains | Rail company that launched world's first H2 line last year opts for all-electric future | Hydrogen news and intelligence (hydrogeninsight.com) probably quite surprising to many Amazon to Meet Regulators as U.S. Considers Possible Antitrust Suit - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Apple iPhone 15 release date around Sept. 22: report (cnbc.com) Brazil central bank names its digital currency 'DREX,' scheduled for 2024 launch | Reuters Copper - metal of the future (glencore.com) Canadian pension scheme shorts UK water companies (thetimes.co.uk) Boeing resets Starliner's first crewed spaceflight target for March (cnbc.com) India's Moon Mission Enters Lunar Orbit Ahead of Historic Landing Attempt (gizmodo.com) Trump Admits How Legal Troubles Could Hurt 2024 Campaign (newsweek.com) what a circus this all is Judge dismisses Trump's defamation claim against E. Jean Carroll | Reuters Tesla 'master of coin' quits: CFO Zachary Kirkhorn to leave after 13 years (cityam.com) UBS shuffles bank bosses in bid to better compete with Wall Street - Nikkei Asia Wann wusste Ermotti von CS-Rettung? - Inside Paradeplatz Drivers Frustrated With Their Cars Door Handles, Screens, Other Tech (businessinsider.com) California’s Home Insurer Retreat Signals Long-Term Rating Risk, S&P Warns - Bloomberg Massimo on Twitter: "Impressive hailstorm in Tricesimo, Udine, Italy on August 7: the roads turned into torrents of ice again [source, HD: https://t.co/mRiPLPBzLp] https://t.co/661tiejZIz" / X Crazy weather! At least two people said to have declined resignation honours from Liz Truss | Liz Truss | The Guardian Why on earth do they have ‘resignation honours lists’ ? totally bonkers GB News: Politicians' shows under scrutiny in new Ofcom investigations - BBC News surely not... NVIDIA - what a run up

Week ahead : U.S CPI/PPI main event China CPI/PPI as well, 10y UST yields back to that key 4.10% level (slightly softer NFP headline), DXY chopping around/slight USD strength though, WTI near highs though, Equity markets struggle when AAPL struggles, will the magnificent 7's struggle form here ? (lots of short AAPL long AMXN or MSFT type calls following earnings, make sense, AAPL on a 32 PE and no growth was always going to be challenging! Right now Mr Market is pricing in a FED that is done with hiking, on hold till Jan 2024 and a cut in March and another in May 2024 FED's : Bowman warned more rate hikes "will likely be needed," a contrast from other Fed officials advocating wait-and-see, is "looking for consistent evidence" that inflation continues to moderate, Bostic & Goolsbee said after Friday's slower job growth data that the labor market is becoming better balanced, so the FOMC can afford to be patient Why net zero requires a reinvention of civilisation Niger coup: Is France to blame for instability in West Africa? Rice markets could face further turmoil as Thailand urges farmers to plant less rice If you think inflation is over, and deflation is coming, remember that 100y Austria, good times, well now is time to buy, where do you think it's trading ? Lula calls (insisting!) for end to U.S. dollars dominance in International trade US oil reserves at lowest level since 1985, fastest decline in history over last 2 years, the US said they are delaying refilling reserves again due to “market conditions.” Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments, marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis JPM saw a recession 3 weeks ago, now they don't anymore..MS’s Mike Wilson blames persistent fiscal spending for why his stock call was wrong this year. “Fiscal policy has allowed the economy to grow faster than forecast, giving rise to the consensus view that the risk of a recession has faded considerably.” China is adding more renewables each year than the EU, U.S and India combined Netanyahu pulling back on judicial revamp. Record Number of Chinese LGFVs Miss Payments on Short-Term Debt - Bloomberg The recent factory-building boom has contributed the most to US GDP growth since 1981, manufacturing construction mainly, spending has been part offset to Fed tightening Warren Buffett found few bargains in the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings show. The investor's company sold a net $8 billion of stock, and spent only $1.4 billion on buybacks. Berkshire's cash pile grew by 13% to a near-record $147 billion as a result Markets : SPX goes where AAPL goes and/or markets can't rally when APPL struggles, pretty clear >> been a HUGE momentum trade on low vols, watch out if systematic funds are 'forced' to unwind now, Vix, but more importantly ODTE stuff key! SHARP turnaround off highs, outside day on Friday USD mixed, though if the unwind picks up pace, USDJPY will be in trouble, the fcat that the BoJ HAD or is intervening twice last week to mitigate the rising cost of debt, caused by a marginal shift in rates totally underestimate the enormity of the current debt situation! and all the majors are in a similar boat.. GOLD : while it's true that the $$ has not dropped and GOLD has not rallied either, you can easily take the opposite view ! most would have expected the sharp rise in UST yields to push the USDollar higher and XAU down, in reality none of it has happened, thus suggest a weak underlying $$ and XAU has actually done 'okay' Bonds, duration, market is long duration and the BoJ is inviting JPN managers to bring capital back home Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Jefferies: "We still expect a recession, but now we are looking for it to begin in Q1 2024 rather than Q3 2023." https://t.co/RFfHBqnU2Y" / X Warren Buffett is struggling to find bargains, Berkshire Hathaway's 2nd-quarter earnings show (yahoo.com) The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "US oil reserves are now at their lowest level since 1985. The decline of US reserves over the last 2 years is faster than any time in history, and it’s not even close. Just last week, the US said they are delaying refilling reserves again due to “market conditions.” Meanwhile,… https://t.co/90KUukqFjC" / X David Ingles on Twitter: "Three very important charts on the current overall sentiment of Chinese consumers. Better but still in need of a confidence boost; still unimpressed with outlook. Source: Goldman Sachs https://t.co/gwmpo01gX5" / X Record China Local State Borrowers Miss Short-Term Debt Payments - Bloomberg Brazilian president calls for end to U.S. dollars dominance in International trade (gazettengr.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments, marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis. Net inflows from international investors over the past 50 days have reached historically elevated levels, maintaining a… https://t.co/NRRAqSEvwq" / X Apple iPhone 15 Pro Goes on Sale September 22, Announced September 12 or 13 - Bloomberg Airstrikes kill three in Ukraine, Moscow airport ceases flights after failed drone attack | The Hill Niger coup: Is France to blame for instability in West Africa? - BBC News Why net zero requires a reinvention of civilisation (thetimes.co.uk) excellent read Why the way things are/go, net zero is a pipe dream Switzerland’s hands-off approach to espionage - SWI swissinfo.ch Thailand wants its farmers to plant less rice to save water (cnbc.com) Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu Pulling Back on Judicial Revamp - Bloomberg Imran Khan: Is his political future over now he is in jail? - BBC News Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "The Chancellor has given an interview in which he denies Brexit is at least partly responsible for the the UK’s stubbornly high inflation compared to the US & eurozone Not only is that patently untrue - by denying it he’s insulting the publics intelligence. Watch in disbelief https://t.co/QRtjRnrtqR" / X And there is that Fifty-seven swimmers fall sick and get diarrhoea at world triathlon championship in Sunderland | Pollution | The Guardian Matt on Twitter: "@campbellclaret This was Whitby today. Absolutely disgusting 🤮 https://t.co/pRu36cUEYN" / X France to speed up nuclear power deployment – EURACTIV.com Inflation profiteering charge levelled at Swiss retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch Austria wants to save cash payments from a contactless world (qz.com) NASDAQ

ALL about long-ends, 30y UST yields up 30bps in just few days to 4.3%, Fitch downgrade was well overdue, fiscal stance questioned, fiscal cliff every year, risk management ?...cost of debt financing going exponentially higher US NFP today is the 1st of few key data ahead of the Fed Sept meeting, U.S CPI next week Underlying inflation in the euro zone has probably peaked, pointing to slower growth in other prices too, the ECB says >> likely to cement market's expectations for a pause in rate hikes in Sept AAPL revenues were down 1% vs the prior year, that's the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative yearly growth and it trades at 32 P/E..high multiple and low/zero growth, AMZN was a beat, +11% revs yoy, well above expectations -Latin America’s central banks, which acted much faster than their US and European counterparts to raise interest rates, are declaring victory in the war on inflation -Achieving Net Zero Looks Like a Pipe Dream in Asia. China alone consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, with India, Indonesia, and Vietnam not far behind. finews.asia looks at it all in the context of a record-breaking summer heatwave -UST 10y yields now above the levels that triggered most of the issues across the 'regional' banking industry earlier this year -BYD volume growth is insane. Not a true like for like vs TSLA (BYD sells both EV and hybrids), but a 10x growth in 2years is wild! China eases entry visa and hukou rules in all-out push to save the economy Warren Buffett says he’s not worried about Fitch’s U.S. downgrade and it's not changing anything that Berkshire's doing in the markets right now >> he is buying 3 and 6mos Bills....not 10 or 30y UST's... Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates rise. Buyout groups must ‘go back to investing in the old-fashioned way’, Marc Rowan says Oil prices rally in response to production cut extension in Saudi Arabia Markets : Investors underestimating risks that a structurally higher cost of capital environment does to the U.S govt debt (and others), but specially with UST curve inverted. VIX still mid teens, equity markets (SPX7s mainly) pretty overvalued and credit spreads totally supressed, watch if tighter financial conditions materialize from here MM Funds AUM have hit $5.5trn with yields at 5% (1.5trn during the ZIRP years) BoJ intervene twice in JGB's this week to slow bond sell-off FED balance-sheet down about $750bn from Apr 2022 peak (only..), it expanded by $4trn in 2020-2021 period.. 30y UST yields are up 30bps in just a few days, to 4.30% >>> fiscal responsibility being questioned... EURUSD 1.0900 and 1.0935 are support, 55 and 100dma's and trendline support, Crude up and USDMXN up, sign that correlation breaking, unwinding of positions, don't own what the street owns.., Gas prices hitting new highs for the year Equity markets struggling this week, AMZN saved the day, overall, would reduce on anything that is 'owned' and consensus Oil prices rally in response to production cut extension in Saudi Arabia (yahoo.com) BOE governor Bailey cautious amid 'unwelcome surprises' in inflation (cnbc.com) Such a poor delivery from BoE, they totally failed to see inflation coming 2y ago, when it was pretty obvious.... and now they won't see the slowdown till it's too late.. >>> HIGH for longer though, let's hope for the many they don't hike anymore 5 Charts That Show the Rise of BYD, TSLA, and the Electric Car Boom - Bloomberg Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates rise | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple shares slump despite beating sales expectations (yahoo.com) AAPL sales lower profit slight better due to lower tax, you cant justify a P/E of 32 when there is no growth.. and q3 guided small lower Amazon online sales improve despite economy fears - BBC News JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says downgrading U.S. credit rating is ‘ridiculous’ when countries relying on Washington are rated higher (msn.com) Of course he would and of course he has to say that Fiscal situation is much worse than it was even 6months or 3y ago..clearly.. Rampant DC dysfunction made America’s credit downgrade inevitable (yahoo.com) yup Achieving Net Zero Looks Like a Pipe Dream in Asia (finews.asia) Latin America’s central banks declare victory in war on inflation | Financial Times (ft.com) From unicorns to ponies US Treasuries are losing their luster | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Opposite to what happened in 2011, Fitch's US rating downgrade might prove to be bearish for US Treasuries for a straightforward reason: why would investors buy ten-year US Treasuries (AA+) at 4% when USD hedged ten-year Bunds (AAA) pay 4.25%? Not only that, but the "soft-landing" scenario and larger US treasury auctions spell for higher yields. Ten-year yields are likely to head towards 4.3%, while two-year yields are likely to test resistance again at 5.04%. Yet, the rise in yields will be stopped abruptly when something breaks, which is more likely to happen as yields continue to soar ....and Joseph Wang on Twitter: "Here's latest Treasury supply estimates from public and private sector analysts. Bill issuance is heavy next few months, so Treasury will soon be at their 20% recommended level. Then trillions in coupons each year forever IMO I can't see anything but structurally higher yields. https://t.co/PzKbwWyHeO" / X Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The US Treasury selloff has been driven by long-dated notes, not those most sensitive to Fed policy. This suggests two things: traders expect inflation to stay higher for longer and they question whether the Fed is truly going to raise rates high enough to achieve 2% inflation https://t.co/el0ugW2yRf" / X Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The median price of a starter home in the US is 46% higher than 2019 levels. The monthly mortgage payment needed to purchase one of these homes has more than doubled over that time period. Video: https://t.co/mECf8sjSEK https://t.co/YfC7iLnP23" / X Rishi Sunak is quietly admitting that Brexit has been bad for business (inews.co.uk) Better late than never! Ukraine war: Crimea naval base attack, Kyiv 'dominates' frontline, Russia hits Kherson church (yahoo.com) China eases entry visa and hukou rules in all-out push to save the economy | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) U.S. Business Confidence in China Is Rising, Survey Finds - Caixin Global UBC study finds owners of pricey Vancouver homes pay very little income tax | UBC Magazine these kind of things need to change.. 2nd, 3rd home or more, higher council taxes, wealth taxes and so on, rightly or wrongly it will happen, everywhere Mexico’s president slams Texas governor as ‘inhumane’ | The Hill Canada wildfires: Emissions more than double previous annual record (cnbc.com) Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sues Placebo singer for calling her 'fascist, racist' | World News | Sky News EURUSD again, USD overall bid tone

Qualcomm gave light forecast, phone chip sales fall 17% >> risk for AAPL tonight, and he implied volatility for put options on Apple is at one of its lowest levels in history right before their earnings release later on today...market sees no risk.. BoE most likely +25bps - been expected and priced for long while, UK had a composite PMI of 50.8 in July Swiss manufacturing PMI 38.5 (forecasts 44 , previous 44.9) - U.S ADP employment July 324K (estimate 190K..) stronger again, Services PMI in Sweden jumping from 45.9 to 52.7, Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices Chinese EV maker BYD is rocketing up Fortune’s Global 500 ranking. Meanwhile, Chinese battery giant CATL made it in the Global 500 for the first time Fitch sent a warning on 23rd April : - said it would maintain its AAA rating as long as Congress resolved the debt-ceiling impasse with no damage to financial markets. If default becomes a serious risk, however, “the US’s rating would likely be placed on rating watch negative and further rating action could be considered.” >>> IMHO, the downgrade came (at least partly) because of 'dysfunctional budget process', ie none of them in politics at mom are prepared to adjust /reduce spending etc.. if necessary...! As Grundlach says ''US budget deficit is near 9% of GDP in an economy not viewed as being in recession. That means if a year ago we actually (*shock*) balanced the budget, GDP would have been near -6% last 12 months. If rates stay at 5.5% long enough interest payments will go up another $1 TRILLION'' Brazil central bank kicks off rate cuts more aggressively than expected (50bps cuts), Westpac says Reserve Bank of Australia now on hold until first rate cut in September 2024 US mortgage purchase applications fell 9.5% over the past 5 weeks The BIS estimated that by the end of last year Chinese household debt reached 61.3 per cent of its economic output, compared to 47.7 per cent for the average of emerging economies, and 74.4 per cent in the United States and 68.2 per cent in Japan "China's CAC said on Wednesday children under the age of 18 should be limited to a maximum of two hours a day on their smartphones. Investors were not impressed." ...I bet many parents will never say it, but parents and teachers elsewhere around the world love the idea.. Amazon Clinic expands doctor visit marketplace to 50 states Market : Recall yesterday's words from most big banks economist 'this Fitch move means nothing'' , ignore and move along...>>> the point is, markets been very quiet, poor liquidities, low implied vols, risk has rallied hard on short covering, ignoring strong usd and higher yields, long-ends breaking down (through 4.10% in yield terms), still 75bps of inversion out there !!! beware USDJPY, CROSSJPY's should stay heavy, JPY been oversold/carry trades, it worked, but beware too, basically, in short-term, beware on whatever is owned out there (AI trades, NVDA?...)..Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno says watching FX moves closely, as expected! BTC should/could well have a decent move down on 'long-end UST' moves, long GOLD while sub $1950 also at risk, XAG had a decent dump yesterday, must hold around $23 for the bulls One should worry/plan/hedge/consider the risk of a decent credit event now, particularly if long-end rates continue to sell-off Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to new 15-year high to fight inflation – business live (theguardian.com) Reuters Business on Twitter: "WATCH: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen voiced more objections to Fitch Ratings' downgrade of the main US credit rating, calling it 'entirely unwarranted' because it ignored improvements in governance metrics and the country's economic strength https://t.co/pqK48JnBjU https://t.co/JWNIv3x3BA" / X economic strength built on ever expanding debt..and cost of this $33trn debt is now $1trn yearly, Fitch is just the messenger for politicos.. US shale firm CEO predicts $80-$100 a barrel of oil through 2024 (naturalgasworld.com) Robin Brooks on Twitter: "EM easing cycle has begun in earnest. Last month, Chile surprised with a 100 bps cut and yesterday Brazil did a larger-than-expected 50 bps cut. These EMs were early to hike, built up lots of credibility, and can now cut. Turkey and Russia are another matter. Both have to hike... https://t.co/XPT3mXXXhI" / X Brazil central bank kicks off rate cuts more aggressively than expected (msn.com) Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings report Q2 2023 (cnbc.com) risk for AAPL earnings tonight ? Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "The implied volatility for put options on Apple is at one of its lowest levels in history right before their earnings release tomorrow. What could go wrong? Despite adding more than 1 trillion in market capitalization this year, their annual free cash flow is projected to… https://t.co/VQf5Ewvdxd" / X Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices | Reuters Ukrainian soldiers describe their experiences battling Russia (economist.com) SoftBank's Arm Ltd targets valuation up to $70 billion in September IPO, Bloomberg reports | Reuters Amazon Clinic expands doctor visit marketplace to 50 states (yahoo.com) Australians are so mad about the return to office, they’re taking companies to court to stop it (yahoo.com) Chinese EV maker BYD surges in Fortune Global 500 ranking (qz.com) China’s household debt creeps upward, approaching warning line of International Monetary Fund | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Always a great handle on China Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/5 Good article. Hancock notes that "The optimistic vision, pushed by some government-linked economists, is that the strength of so-called new economy sectors can make up for property’s decline." https://t.co/S4Sn9yXIbs via @BW" / X Typhoon Khanun forecast to turn back to Japanese islands where it already left damage and injuries | AP News A car-carrying ship that burned for a week on the North Sea will be towed to a Dutch port | AP News 61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck even as inflation cools (cnbc.com) The microbes that could protect grapevines from climate change - BBC Future EURJPY - if you can afford 158+...decent signs of weakness... AUDJPY showing weak signs too