Early debate was a huge gamble Biden may regret >>> Biden and Trump were both asked about how they would handle the office of the presidency given concerns about their ages. The pair instead decided to argue about golf >>> good news is the debate happened now, well before Dems convention in Sep, so they have time to replace Joe French Political Leaders Clash Over Ukraine Policy in Heated-Televised Debate MIT professor Daron Acemoglu offers an opposing view to the idea that AI will greatly boost productivity over the next 10 years, as many, including Goldman Sachs, believe .  Use cases for AI over the next 10 years will be concentrated in automating certain tasks or helping workers become more efficient; truly transformative changes resulting from AI will need more time to be realized Is the revival of Paris in peril? The French election threatens a remarkable commercial renaissance Former BOE MPC member Saunders sees cut in August and cash rate to 3.5% at end-2025 Goldman Sachs just reported that hedge funds are aggressively offloading tech stocks at a rapid rate we haven't seen in years - odd, must follow this in July Goldman Sachs fared the worst of America's Biggest Banks during the Federal Reserve's Annual Stress Test IMF on US review : “high deficits and debt create a growing risk to the US and global economy… needs to be urgently addressed” Early debate was a huge gamble Biden may regret ( msn.com ) Excruciating Biden debate performance against Trump was among worst in presidential history - if not the worst | US News | Sky News Five key moments from the Biden Trump debate ( telegraph.co.uk ) No Fortune 100 CEO supports Trump, a Yale Business professor says | Fortune French Political Leaders Clash Over Ukraine Policy in Heated-Televised Debate - Publicist 24 French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers ( thelocal.fr ) Is the revival of Paris in peril? ( economist.com ) Europe: Von der Leyen nominated for second term as EU Commission President | blue News ( bluewin.ch ) United States of America: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission ( imf.org ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "#Germany is experiencing a quake on the market for open-ended property funds. The stock market prices differ markedly from the providers' NAVs. Don't miss my take on this on LinkedIn. https://t.co/d1MiyzyeUE " / X ( twitter.com ) Acemoglu questions productivity benefits of AI - Central Banking Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,' according to one commodity trader ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs was the ‘worst hit’ in the Fed’s latest stress test of big banks. Bank of America still lists it as a buy ( msn.com ) The Supreme Court rejects a nationwide opioid settlement with OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma - POLITICO Astonishing that this is still ongoing !!! #dopestick is a great serie on this Boots: UK sales jump as US parent announces store closures ( cityam.com ) Buying asset with leverage/debt, and cash flows diminishing, never a good cocktail Cocaine Inc: how British drugs cash is turned into solid gold in Dubai ( thetimes.com ) Bitcoin breaks into Traditional Finance: Commoditizing crypto currency offerings | finalix Novo Nordisk to restrict Wegovy sales in China ( qz.com ) Boeing woes will not erode workers' readiness to strike, union says ( msn.com )

BoJ : will they, won't they #USDJPY >>> FWIW, FX interventions without back up on rates, look doomed, not to say they can't move JPY up 2-3-4% - anything is possible clearly, but wouldn't last long, similarly to what happened in early May this year Elections ahead : 28th June in Iran, France 30th June and 8th July, UK on 4th July and of course tonight the big Biden-Trump show >>> and EU consumer conf, usual U.S data to watch (Jobless claims, final GDP, durable goods & U.S PCE tomorrow), Fed's Barkin tomorrow as well >>> equity rotation week so far, rates OATS etc in play, Mag7 benefit, rest softer (JPY, CHF, Russell etc), MICRON weaker after earnings last night KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents.. Biden administration touts lower costs for 64 prescription drugs Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace Many Americans in new survey say Biden more personable than Trump, but not stronger Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 27 June 2024 | Saxo ( home.saxo ) USD/JPY consolidates near two-month top, remains below 160.00 amid risk of intervention ( fxstreet.com ) Hermès: The pinnacle of timeless luxury and craftsmanship | Saxo ( home.saxo ) KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents ( msn.com ) >> which stage of capitalism are we in ? find it hard to think this is good for the people.. Crude seeks support from seasonal demand strength | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Why do most countries buy oil in U.S. dollars? - Marketplace Europe wants to deploy data centers into space, study says ( cnbc.com ) Microsoft to build huge datacentre near Leeds after £106m deal ( cityam.com ) Rivian's $5 billion deal with Volkswagen gets Wall Street cheers ( qz.com ) Here are the 13 brands affected by the FDA listeria recall ( qz.com ) Biden administration touts lower costs for 64 prescription drugs ( yahoo.com ) Amazon joins the $2 trillion market cap club with Microsoft and Apple - Neowin Is your rent ever going to fall? ( economist.com ) French elections: Macron could end up a loser. How did he get there? ( lemonde.fr ) Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace - SWI swissinfo.ch Surveyed Americans say Joe Biden more personable than Donald Trump, but not stronger ( thehill.com ) #BTC better hold the 60K area for the bulls

FT-France could trigger the next euro crisis . Runaway budget deficits and confrontation with Brussels and Berlin is a formula for trouble -- France : "If a country can just ignore the rules and be helped by the central bank, you'll get a lot of doubts about the future value of the euro and the future cohesion of the euro,"  said Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg to Reuters Fed’s Bowman says rate cut is not appropriate yet given inflation risks, willing to raise rates if progress on inflation stalls >>> For the first time, the average economist’s forecast (compiled by Bloomberg) shows less than two full Fed rate cuts by the end of the year (close call, basically 2cuts the name of the game for now) FED paper : Higher inflation can lead to greater efficiency >> Will J Powell make this case on CNBC? unlikely FedEx shares jump after hours as massive cost-cutting measures kick in Australia inflation jumps to 6-mth high in May, ramps up rate hike risks, AUD up Chinese Yuan falls to lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than 7 months >>> @crawlingpeg - the higher #USDJPY goes the higher #USDCNH will go/follow Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024 | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Australia inflation jumps to 6-mth high in May, ramps up rate hike risks ( msn.com ) Lufthansa to charge up to €72 per ticket to cover climate costs – POLITICO Rivian: Volkswagen takes $1 billion stake in EV maker ( cnbc.com ) UBS CEO sees functioning competition in corporate banking - SWI swissinfo.ch Von der Leyen lined up for second term under EU top jobs deal, sources say - SWI swissinfo.ch U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen touts new affordable housing drive ( axios.com ) Ultraorthodox Israelis must serve in army, court rules ( ft.com ) U.S. ambassador accuses China of undermining bilateral ties, WSJ reports ( cnbc.com ) FedEx (FDX) earnings Q4 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Fed’s Bowman says rate cut is not appropriate yet given inflation risks - MarketWatch The Fed - Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search ( federalreserve.gov ) >>>> Higher inflation can lead to greater efficiency. It all has to do with the price dispersion that inflation generates, which might motivate some consumers to search for the lowest prices, increasing competition among sellers >>> will Powell endorse this moment ion the TeeVee ? unlikely.. France could trigger the next euro crisis ( ft.com ) Analysis-France may be next test of the euro's foundations - SWI swissinfo.ch Airbus stock drops 11% as plane maker cuts forecast on deliveries ( qz.com ) The duopoly not doing great! Huawei is having hard time producing AI chip under U.S. sanctions ( qz.com ) Kenya Protests: Indians Advised To 'Exercise Caution' After New Finance Bill Triggers Riots | Top Updates ( outlookindia.com ) Denmark sets first carbon tax on agriculture – POLITICO Madness The Julian Assange case — a timeline ( msn.com ) WikiLeaks founder Assange pleads guilty to espionage charge ahead of expected release ( msn.com ) Nonsense and Bad Rules Persist in Banking by Anat R. Admati - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org )

Markets taking a breather on key momentum trades/area #NVDA and #SMH (biggest insider selling week, momentum, Apple Ai news important too) and #BTC similar reasons >>> clear rotation out of chips into financials and others, NVDA to $90 area? chart below Nvidia has lost more than $400-500 bn in market valuation in the past three trading sessions. Those losses are greater than the market cap of companies including Johnson & Johnson, Home Depot, Merck, Bank of America and Netflix Latest in France : Le Pen Party Has 36%, Macron Group Has 20.5%, Alliance of left-wing parties would get 29.5%: Ifop Poll Brussels accuses Apple of breaking EU competition rules. Tech giant faces penalty of up to 10% of global annual revenue, this matter together with Ai news y'day US banks' construction loan delinquencies hit highest level in at least 3 years Mt.Gox has revealed its plans to start reimbursing its users Bitcoin according to an update shared by the platforms’ Rehabilitation Trustee >>> to put it in perspective that's about 50% of recent inflows gone in one shot #BTC #BTC Bitcoin dropped below its 50-day moving average , Bitcoin drops by 3.5% as German government sells off $325 million BTC Singapore and, in particular, Hong Kong are increasingly overtaking Switzerland as a financial hub. The extent of the Asians' determination has become evident in recent days in the banking strongholds of Zurich and Geneva . U .S. officials trying to prevent a bigger Middle East war are issuing an unusual warning to Hezbollah : Don’t assume that Washington can stop Israel from attacking you FDIC warns that 63 Banks have been added to the “Problem List” Cocoa posts one of the largest decline in 40 years. Choccy back on the menu Chinese Car Prices are falling at the fastest speed since data began being recorded in 2002 Gold could hit $3,000 by the end of 2025 says Bank of America Exclusive: Trump reviews plan to halt US military aid to Ukraine unless it negotiates peace with Moscow | Reuters There Are 63 'Problem Banks' and $517 Billion in Unrealized Losses: FDIC - Business Insider Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far left or far right wins – POLITICO US to Hezbollah: Don’t count on us to stop an Israeli attack ( msn.com ) David Rosenberg on X: "The Bank of America announced their expectations of Gold surpassing the $3000 mark, something my team here at Rosenberg Research predicted and published a detailed special report on just a couple of months ago: "Why Gold is Glittering and Why is it headed for $3000 (or Higher)". https://t.co/ZVQRuBJamQ " / X ( twitter.com ) Brussels accuses Apple of breaking EU competition rules ( ft.com ) Opinion: Warren Buffett and other billionaires are buying blue-chip energy stocks. Here’s why. - MarketWatch US banks' construction loan delinquencies hit highest level in at least 3 years | S&P Global Market Intelligence ( spglobal.com ) Mt.Gox Bitcoin Repayments worth $9 billion revealed ( coinspeaker.com ) Bitcoin drops by 3.5% as German government sells off $325 million BTC - Nairametrics Key questions ahead of presidential debate: Can Biden perform and can Trump be boring? | AP News Liechtenstein Gold Trader Sues US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ( finews.com ) Chinese network laundered millions for Sinaloa cartel, prosecutors say - Los Angeles Times ( latimes.com ) China warns U.S. it may fight back against tech investment restrictions ( qz.com ) Zelensky sacks senior military commander ( bignewsnetwork.com ) Storm damage to major Swiss motorway may impact summer travel - SWI swissinfo.ch Strewth! this was wild Switzerland must adapt to changing flood risks, warns Swiss hydrologist - SWI swissinfo.ch Wegovy helped women lose more weight than men with heart condition: study ( qz.com ) From Farm to Fuel: inside Eni’s African… | Transport & Environment ( transportenvironment.org ) Utilizing castor oil produced in arid regions of Africa as a source of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) presents a promising pathway for decarbonizing jet fuel. Unlike corn ethanol, castor oil does not compete with food production, and the current availability of waste vegetable oils is inadequate to meet more than the EU's 2% SAF requirement in jet fuel starting from January 1, 2025 Hong Kong is Breathing Down the Neck of the Swiss Financial Center ( finews.asia ) #NVDA - we can go back to trend - this would hurt a few late momentum #SOX buyers - but why not

Week ahead : Biden vs Trump debate on 27th June, BoJ apparently ready to intervene, 1st round of French election on 30th June, 4th July UK election and 2nd round of French election on 7th July Strong US S&P PMIs:  S&P manuf and services PMIs both came in stronger than exp on Friday (6months highs) , dragged GOLD lower, USD higher, NVDA had it's first negative week since ApriL (also the largest 'insider' selling week in the stock - will it matter??), DJ had it's best week since May, and we had a b earish Engulfing Pattern for Semiconductors #SMH The yen remained under pressure and close to key levels against the dollar Monday, even after Japan’s top currency official warned that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets 24 hours a day if necessary French elections: Macron pledges 'change' and to 'act until 2027' in open letter Israel offensive into Lebanon risks Iranian military response , top US military leader says Apollo : The Neutral Interest Rate Is Higher than the Fed Thinks Apple likely won't release its new AI features in Europe this year because of regulatory concerns >>> data protection, copyright's issues... China wants EU to scrap proposed higher tariffs and 'abide by WTO rules,' state media reports WSJ: "Manufacturing comprises 15% of Europe’s overall output, and 18% of Germany’s, compared with 11% of the U.S.’s, reflecting specialization in high-tech engineering tools and machinery that helped to power China’s rise. But China increasingly competes in products it used to buy from Europe." Growth’s outperformance versus Value is at its highest level since 2000 , and/or Small cap stocks are down 2% on the year while Large caps are up 15%, nothing new, as we all know about the Mag 5 or 7, but still Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 24 June 2024 | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) French elections: Macron pledges 'change' and to 'act until 2027' in open letter ( lemonde.fr ) Israeli offensive into Lebanon risks Iranian military response, top U.S. general says ( msn.com ) EU devises legal loophole to bypass Hungary veto on support for Ukraine ( ft.com ) CNN debate stage set with Trump and Biden going head-to-head | CNN Politics CNBC Daily Open: Dow posts best week since May, Tesla cuts 14% of workforce Dollar steady; yen wobbles near 160 as intervention worries linger | Reuters Yen Is Under Pressure Even as Japan Steps Up Its Verbal Warnings ( yahoo.com ) Yen Is Under Pressure Even as Japan Steps Up Its Verbal Warnings ( yahoo.com ) Europe’s Response to China Shock 2.0: Hold China Closer - WSJ US PMI data triggers sharp decline in gold prices - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) How Long Will High Rates Last? Bond Markets Say Maybe Forever - Bloomberg Apollo : The Neutral Interest Rate Is Higher than the Fed Thinks  062324-Chart.pdf ( apolloacademy.com ) China wants EU to scrap higher tariffs and 'abide by WTO rules' ( cnbc.com ) Apple likely won't release its new AI features in Europe amid regulatory concerns ( qz.com ) US prosecutors want Boeing to face criminal charges, reports say ( bbc.com ) Discounting wars in quick commerce; tax relief for ecommerce suppliers ( indiatimes.com ) Sergio Ermottis Märchenstunde in der NZZ – Inside Paradeplatz Rory Stewart on X: "The clearest and most constructive option for a new Labour growth plan is to rejoin the EU Customs Union. That is NOT the same as rejoining the EU. But it would make immense sense economically and strategically. Please do it! https://t.co/dyyplCSVd9 " / X ( twitter.com ) #SMH smi conductor index 'bearish engulfing candle' EURJPY - BoJ testing times ahead - again

Today is the big quadruple witching day, with a large amount of gamma due to roll-off in the options market Congressional Budget Office raises federal budget deficit projection by $400 billion, a 27 percent increase compared to its original estimate released in February, juts like that SNB cut 25bps, 2nd cut YTD, same guidance going forward, could go either way, largely in line with market expectations, minor adjustment lower in infl forecast BoE held rates steady, as expected with more members positioning for a cut, August cut looks on the cards, 2 cuts fully priced for 2024 US initial jobless claims: More proof of a struggling consumer ? Japan's inflation rose in May due to rising electricity costs Core CPI gained 2.5%, accelerating for the first time in three months US, China Resume Nuclear Talks After 5 Years Amid Taiwan Conflict, China warns of 'trade war' if EU continues to escalate trade frictions Oil prices are up 10% in the last 2 weeks , Citi says oil is facing bullish pressure as summer season picks up, with global crude and product deficit of around 200L barrels per day Japan’s biggest agricultural bank surprised the market this week by saying it would sell $63 billion of low-yielding US and European government bonds that had become unprofitable to hold after the firm’s shorter-term funding costs jumped >>> #USDJPY just closed on highs above 159, 1st time since interventions in May Good week for GOLD, Silver, they love very average/weaker macro data, softer rates, geopolitical and political uncertainty #XAUUSD #XAGUSD Short interest tied to SPY and QQQ is hovering at the lowest levels since at least 2018 ---JPM >>> if you wanted to be bear, might be a reasonable time to put a hedge on >>> today's options expiration notional value is $5.1 Trillion, the largest in history, very much due to #NVDA and ETF rebalancings.. Macron’s Party Makes Slight Gain in French Election Poll - Bloomberg *Macron’s group would get 22% support, in third place after Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, with 34%, and an alliance of left-wing parties, with 29%, according to the survey by Ifop-Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radi Apollo / The current Ai bubble is bigger than the 1990's tech bubble Wheat got a lot cheaper last few weeks Market-Wide Options Expiry, Decreasing Gamma Threaten Stocks at Overbought Levels | Investing.com Congressional Budget Office raises federal budget deficit projection by $400 billion | PBS News Ben Calusinski on X: "Nasdaq is now the most overbought since right before Volmaggedon in 2018 I did a 7-year correlation analysis and found that every time Nasdaq has hit 80+ on the Daily RSI, it has led to a correction The smallest? -3.94% The largest? -30.50% Here's how I plan to trade it 👇 https://t.co/spMsrBKAln " / X All Roads Lead To Nvidia (NVDA) as Tech Sees Record Inflows, Says BofA - Bloomberg Nvidia's Downfall? Who's Responsible? What Triggered the Sudden Drop in Nvidia's Stock? | Trending News Buzz Japan issues fresh warning against yen bears as currency slides | Reuters US finds no currency manipulation in 2023, Japan added to monitoring list | Reuters Norinchukin CEO Says Expected Loss Could Change With Market ( yahoo.com ) >>> it's pretty big, won't be done in a day! but over next few weeks/months could cap CROSSJPY's Wheat heads for fourth weekly loss on improving supply - Markets - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) US initial jobless claims: More proof of a struggling consumer? ( yahoo.com ) Oil prices rise 10% after volatile year ( qz.com ) US, China Resume Nuclear Talks After 5 Years Amid Taiwan Conflict ( ndtv.com ) Macron's snap election: is this the 'Truss moment' for French financial markets? – The Armchair Trader One of Russia's Largest Oil Refineries 'Damaged' in Overnight Drone Barrage - Newsweek CS Integration: Decision Could Become an Own Goal for Finma ( finews.asia ) Election 2024: Firms have ‘nothing to worry about’ on workers' rights, Reeves says ( cityam.com ) What we learned from BBC Radio Nottingham's election debate ( msn.com ) #NVDA bit of bearish candle yesterday, see how goes with OPEX month, quarter, half year-end next week

Hezbollah, Israel escalations and rhetoric could plunge Leba non into war. Both sides are barely staying wit hin the rules of engagement, leaving Lebanese anxious over what comes next. The S&P 500 dividend yield continues to decline, now around 1.35%, Tech Stocks Forward P/E Ratio jumps to 30.9, the highest since 2002 Euro-area members must start reducing debt immediately in the face of enormous long-term fiscal risk s from ageing populations, defence spending and climate change/ECB Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right European group claims a top EU job #USDCNH grinding higher, highest fix since November last year, and #USDBRL is worst in class YTD within the EM world , worse then even MXN, TRY or Argentina What's known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea Shipping industry urges Red Sea action as Houthis sink second vessel Century-old Japanese bank sends warning to world on higher-for-longer rates Boss of U.K. bank that just turned its first profit says introducing a 4-day week for his 547 workers was way easier than going hybrid CNBC Daily Open: Le Pen's 28-year old protégé Hezbollah, Israel escalations and rhetoric could plunge Lebanon into war | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right European group claims a top EU job ( ft.com ) What's known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea ( msn.com ) Shipping industry urges Red Sea action as Houthis sink second vessel | Reuters Latest inflation data provides potential for 'even greater upside' in the stock market rally ( yahoo.com ) Century-old Japanese bank sends warning to world on higher-for-longer rates | The Straits Times U.K. bank CEO says introducing 4-day week was way easier than going hybrid | Fortune Europe Election 2024: Rishi Sunak could lose seat on July 4, poll finds ( msn.com ) ‘It is all lining up’: Plan for Ukraine to finally start using F-16 jets this summer | Ukraine | The Guardian Longer-term challenges for fiscal policy in the euro area ( europa.eu ) Putin seeks to strengthen Vietnam ties as Russia's isolation deepens | AP News China Weakens Yuan (CNU USD) Fixing to Lowest Since November on FX Stress - Bloomberg and #USDBRL chart Brazilian Real - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News ( tradingeconomics.com ) Frozen food grocery sales vs. critical cold storage supply chains ( cnbc.com ) ‘Swatch has no competition’ in its Swiss-made watch segment  - SWI swissinfo.ch #EURUSD consolidation coming to an end

The mega 2024 election year is all about folks having had enough, the massive #inequality built up last 10-15years is coming through and creating #socialrisk , it's not about financial risk, yet anyway >> the populist/nationalist voters are coming out in force, some kind of recession is ahead of us, perhaps not in the too distant future U.S retails sales were softer, as. .. US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade adn IP was better +0.9% MoM (exp 0.3) Popular tech ETF forced to dump Apple stock, buy Nvidia in upcoming rebalancing, as a result, the $71 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF which tracks the index, could be forced to buy nearly $10 billion worth of Nvidia shares on Friday , while selling more than $11 billion worth of Apple shares, according to a report from analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence shared with MarketWatch last week Chinese 10-year government bond futures hit another record high today #USDCNH Morality Is the Enemy of Peace. The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine can only end with deals that don’t satisfy anyone completely Euro area recovered at the start of 2024 by more than expected in the March 2024 ECB staff projections, with a boost from net trade and rising household spending, and ECB Chief economist plays down need to intervene in French bond market BlackRock : 80% of bitcoin ETF purchases have likely been coming from “self-directed investors who have made their own allocation, often through an online brokerage account." EV maker Fisker files for bankruptcy. US electric car start-up becomes latest to succumb to difficulties hitting the sector (capital intensive business model..), as of the end of May, China had erected 3.05 million public charging facilities, up 46 percent yoy , and 6.87 million private charging facilities, up 61 percent. Green aviation targets driving cooking oil fraud at ‘mass scale’ Housing inflation will need to come down before the Fed can think about cutting rates, BofA says Israel warns Hezbollah of ‘all-out war’ as US tries to de-escalate Lebanon border tensions Israel warns Hezbollah of ‘all-out war’ as US tries to de-escalate Lebanon border tensions ( msn.com ) CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia unseats Microsoft as world's most valuable company Election breakdown: Manifestos, party in-fighting and spending plans ( thelocal.fr ) Popular tech ETF forced to dump Apple stock, buy Nvidia in upcoming rebalancing ( msn.com ) >>>> has become a popular story lately to 'justify' the momentum trade EV maker Fisker files for bankruptcy ( ft.com ) Chinese automakers seek retaliatory tariffs on EU cars, state media reports | Reuters China leads world in charging infrastructure installation number: NDRC - Chinadaily.com.cn Strike action paralyses Germany's northern ports ( msn.com ) KOLANOVIC: “.. Our cautious stance has been based on our view that there is no re-rating upside, and that any upside had to therefore come from earnings growth, which we see being insufficient to take on equity risk even under best case scenario assumptions. For equities to avoid a 20%+ correction, you have to believe that tech will become a much more meaningful driver of growth for the broad economy in short order. While we believe tech will continue to be the key driver of economic growth for years to come, we don’t think its impact on corporate P&Ls across the board will be that profound so suddenly, and so we remain cautious here, expecting economic growth to weaken, equities to correct, and investors to find a better entry point.” Warren Buffett buys Occidental shares for 9 straight days, pushes his stake to nearly 29% ( msn.com ) Expect EU to finally fine a far-right France – POLITICO UK inflation, May 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2024 ( europa.eu ) In Gaza and Ukraine, Morality Is the Enemy of Peace ( foreignpolicy.com ) Advisors ‘wary’ of bitcoin ETFs are on slow adoption journey, says BlackRock exec ( cnbc.com ) Donald Trump Stung By New Polling Among Independents - Newsweek Business world ties elevate key contenders in Trump's search for a running mate ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine-Gipfel: Auf dem Bürgenstock rumpelte es hinter den Kulissen ( nzz.ch ) Green aviation targets driving cooking oil fraud at 'mass scale', warn campaigners ( telegraph.co.uk ) Nvidia market cap passes Microsoft and Apple to become world's most valuable ( qz.com ) #WTI crude- heading north again

EU heads finish meeting with no agreement on top jobs, decision before 30thJune 5 US stocks for 60% of SPX returns YTD, NASDAQ has not been this overbought since early 2018, Fund Manager cash allocations lowest since mid-2021 (BofA FM survey), Momentum Trading is having the most success in history, even surpassing the Dot Com Bubble French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies, French stocks and bond yields gained after Marine pledged to work with Macron if she wins elections. A new poll has her far-right party at 33%, a left-wing alliance rising to 28% and Macron’s a distant third. Christine Lagarde said the ECB is being “attentive” to market developments. UBS offers to repay 90% to clients hit by Greensill implosion Labour will seek ‘improved’ post-Brexit trading terms with EU , Reeves says FT - Even Apple cannot explain why we need AI in our lives. A souped-up Siri and personalised emojis ar e coming but the most important question remains unanswered, and Apple scraps its Pay Later loan scheme US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade China’s tax man hands out decades-old bills to companies, hinting at funding shortage #GDX Gold equities have rarely been this cheap in the past 4 decades Fed's Harker said he expects one rate cut this year  in his prepared remarks . However he noted that "two cuts, or none, for this year” were also quite possible." Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet BoJ's Ueda kept the door open to a possible interest rate increase in July The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike BOJ’s Ueda Keeps July Rate Hike Door Open Amid Skepticism ( yahoo.com ) The RBA did not consider a cut at its June meeting - but it did consider a hike ( msn.com ) JPM DESK: “.. While we had thought the market was setting up for a pullback based upon the price action during earnings season, narrowing breadth, reduced HF positioning, and the potential for markets to take some profits given the almost 32% gain in the $SPX  since this bull run began in Oct 2023 (38.6% for $NDX ), this has not come to fruition and the near-term market setup points to another leg higher being more probable than a pullback. The macro data should support this hypothesis into a seasonally strong July ..” French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies Sophie Pedder on X: "A week after Emmanuel Macron decided to call a snap parliamentary election, the upcoming vote has turned into one of the most crucial in post-war French history. How will it play out? Some thoughts as France enters uncharted territory 1/8 Short🧵 https://t.co/UXbmk86t4T " / X China should pay for propping Russia's Ukraine war - Nato chief ( bbc.com ) Copper Slides to Eight-Week Low After More Soft Data From China - Bloomberg CFTC Orders Trafigura to Pay $55 Million for Fraud, Manipulation and Impeding Communications with the CFTC | CFTC ..Vitol, Glen, now Trafi all got fine for the same thing Even Apple cannot explain why we need AI in our lives ( ft.com ) Technology giant Apple scraps its Pay Later loan scheme in US - BBC News Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet, officials say ( msn.com ) China’s tax man hands out decades-old bills to companies, hinting at funding shortage | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) UBS offers to repay 90% to clients hit by Greensill implosion - SWI swissinfo.ch CEO pay is rising faster than it has in a decade ( qz.com ) Labour will seek ‘improved’ post-Brexit trading terms with EU, Reeves says ( msn.com ) EU has 'moved on' from Brexit as Labour seeks closer ties ( cityam.com ) London overtakes Paris as the biggest stock market in Europe ( msn.com ) IRS plans to close 'abusive' tax loophole used by ultra-rich and raise $50 billion ( qz.com ) EURUSD held where it should have for the bulls - range narrowing

Week ahead : plenty of data all week, focus on France election, Bund-OAt spread leads markets , last week local eq markets lost 6-7% (banks got hit hard, CDS widening, highest levels since 2017 as Bund/OAT spread widened quite sharply, dragging EURO lower). USDCNH around 7.27 again, highest since Nov Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets across France Saturday to oppose Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which is predicted to finish first in the upcoming snap legislative election called by President Emmanuel Macron >>> tough crowd to please! hence pressure likely to remain into election, as Le Pen offers free money for everyone.. #OATs and the #MAG7 play the safe heaven role, the big are now3 bigger than any other indexes outside US..pretty astonishing China's Retail Sales up 3.7% YoY in May (vs exp of 3% ), was largely offset by a smaller-than-exp incr in Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production The Fed’s pivot from hawkish to dovish and associated easing in financial conditions have boosted expectations for US consumer spending, see Apollo chart below and yet Uni of Michigan survey slipped to 65.6  in June (exp 72 Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel had been among the most bearish strategists on WS, he just boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 6,000 from 4,750 while noting we are in the “early innings” of the AI revolution ) Goolsbee, Chicago Fed, cautioned that he still wants to see further progress on inflation, but sees the possibility of worsening conditions in manuf and agriculture, & Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 37% of the market’s total capitalization, far exceeding the prior peak of 26% in 1999 >>> Big 3 are bigger than any exchange outside of the USA Netanyahu slams military plans for daily 'tactical pauses' to allow aid into Gaza EU leaders meet to decide top jobs in Brussels, von der Leyen poised for 2nd term UAE and India signed local currency settlement system Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan WSJ-Pensions piled into Private Equity. Now they can’t get out Week Ahead: Macro data, BoE, China policy verdicts, FII activity, global cues among key market triggers this week ( msn.com ) French Bond Rout Deepens as Spreads Hit Widest Since 2017 ( yahoo.com ) General Election 2024 LIVE: Labour focuses on investment plans as Reform UK to unveil manifesto ( yahoo.com ) >>> #Hungparliament anyone ? Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out. ( msn.com ) Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios. 1. In a “catch-up” scenario, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 5900. The equal-weight index multiple would expand to 18x, matching its 2018 pre-pandemic high. 2. In a scenario of continued mega-cap exceptionalism, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 6300 (+16%). Assuming a 16x NTM P/E for the equal-weight index and a 45% P/E premium for the market-cap index, the aggregate S&P 500 would trade at a forward P/E of 23x, 16% above today (89th %ile of 6 month returns).  Local currency settlement system for rupee-dirham deal - News | Khaleej Times Netanyahu slams military plans for daily 'tactical pauses' to allow aid into Gaza ( msn.com ) Ukraine war latest: Putin makes 'absurd attempt to seduce West'; leaders call for Olympics truce | World News | Sky News EU leaders meet to decide top jobs in Brussels, von der Leyen poised for second term ( msn.com ) ECB in no rush to discuss French bond rescue, sources say | Reuters Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut ( msn.com ) Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan ( ft.com ) Thousands Protest in France to Oppose Le Pen’s Far Right ( msn.com ) French bonds and bank stocks rocked by political turmoil | Reuters Will the US election be the next Black Swan event for global markets? – The Armchair Trader Always worth putting your hedge on early! since last Monday's call, clients feel relatively well hedged, although feeling is a lot of investors have hardly done anything. EURUSD BIG levels to hold 1.05-1.0650 area, EURCHF took most of the strain last week, French banks, OAT, credit, all pretty logical 061624-Chart.pdf ( apolloacademy.com ) 'The consensus is very bullish on the U.S consumer' / Apollo , and yet US consumer confidence little changed in June, University of Michigan says - Sharecast.com Investors' Options Toolkit | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Amazon's AI-powered Alexa isn't even close to being ready ( qz.com ) Donald Trump woos CEOs by promising corporate tax cuts ( qz.com ) Marco Rubio's name rises toward top of Donald Trump's VP shortlist ( thehill.com )

Market will focus on France's national debt and its deficits now..with Germany not far behind >>> given FED on hold, one would think EURO, #EURUSD will find a few reasons to move down over next few weeks/months (chart below), or have a decent move down if the 'far right' gets in (5-10pct move would not be unconceivable if France really goes to extreme left or right..>>> EURUSD sub 1.0500 would be the beginning of possibly a huge long-term change #EURGBP already breaking down. France's s Left Unites to Challenge Macron, Le Pen for Power, Macron's party looks in real danger to be wiped out....Just as we start the EURO in Germany Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink. Ministers trying to reconcile stances on how to plug a massive financing gap that some estimate at up to €40bn The BOJ : could, from next meeting, reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on July 30 and 31 >>> JPY weaker again, USDJPY heading for the highs again, and they will have to intervene again... or else, presser ongoing U.S PPI for final demand falls 0.2% in May; goods decrease 0.8%, services unchanged Jobless claims jumped to 242K, the highest since August 2023 Oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel in 2025 as world faces 'substantial surplus,' Citi says Ukraine-Russia war: Putin to deliver speech after US and Ukraine agree major 10-year security agreement - and Russia suffers 'astronomical' losses UK General election 2024 live : Farage claims Tories ‘about to implode’ as Reform overtakes party in poll For anyone worrying about +/- 25bps >>> Powell: "If you look back in five or ten years and try to pull out the significant to the U.S. economy of one 25-basis-point cut, you have quite a job on your hands." >>> Powell importantly noted that there are base effects for later this year that will work against inflation progress New cycle high for S&P 500 Tech sector's fwd P/E, which is now at 30+, the highest levels since 2002 (got to 40 in the crazy 2000-01 days) Ukraine-Russia war: Putin to deliver speech after US and Ukraine agree major 10-year security agreement - and Russia suffers 'astronomical' losses | World News | Sky News Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink ( ft.com ) Jobless claims jump to highest level in 10 months ( msn.com ) Bank of Japan set to reduce JGB purchases, stands pat on interest rate ( cnbc.com ) G7 summit: Leaders to focus on migration, Africa, AI ( msn.com ) G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. ( msn.com ) Long-term consequences ? So G7 announced a $50B loan to Ukraine, 2mos ago US approved $61B to Ukraine, the goal is to make it Trump proof. Emboldened Gazans Express Anger at Hamas, Israel Over Cease-Fire Talks Impasse ( msn.com ) From power play to gamble, the history of snap elections in France ( rfi.fr ) French left-wing parties agree to form 'Popular Front' for parliament election ( msn.com ) Macron’s party at risk of wipeout, say election projections ( ft.com ) Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M05 Results ( bls.gov ) Oil prices steady amid divergent OPEC and IEA demand projections | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Red Sea attacks: Ship severely flooded after Houthi attack ( bbc.com ) Labour pledges to retain triple lock and undertake pensions review ( yahoo.com ) General election 2024 live: Farage claims Tories ‘about to implode’ as Reform overtakes party in poll | The Independent German government plans supplementary budget for 2024, Bild says | Reuters France finds itself facing worries about its national debt and its deficits | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog ( wordpress.com ) Warren Buffett's Strategic Acquisition of Occidental Petroleum Shares ( yahoo.com ) Swiss regulator opens bankruptcy proceedings against FlowBank SA - FX News Group Polestar UK Sales Plunge Nearly 70% Year-on-Year in May - EV ( eletric-vehicles.com ) Boeing is 'too big to fail,' Bank of America says ( qz.com ) Microsoft 'accepts responsibility' for cybersecurity failures, top exec says ( qz.com ) The secret life of Jimmy Zhong, who stole – and lost – more than $3b ( cnbc.com ) Old but still a good watch Wells Fargo fires more than dozen employees for allegedly faking work, Bloomberg News reports ( msn.com ) Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest predicts Tesla stock will surge 1,345% over the next five years. Elon Musk says it’s an ‘extremely challenging, but achievable’ target | Fortune #ARKK not exactly done well last few years... on Cathie is winning.. EURUSD - break sub 1.07-1.0600 area could well start a new trend lower, sub 1.05 and many euro longs will throw in the towel

G7 Italia 2024 starts today in Borgo Egnazia Apulia FED hesitant, slightly hawkish FOMC meeting, less convinced about the path ahead >>> IMHO, anything goes, FED is data watching, could go either way, they expect 1 cut in 2024 but added one in 2025 in the dots, ''the economy is still strong'' was mentioned a few times #highfrolonger which probably means if/when something really changes they maybe quicker to act >>>> markets, UST yields and USD dipped on CPI and came back into end of FOMC close, yet equity markets, mega caps really continued higher, NASDAQ leading higher Only eight of the 19 FOMC participants expected two cuts this year. In contrast, Chair Powell downplayed the dot plot in his press conference, ''noting that most FOMC participants did not react to  this morning’s CPI data ' ' He emphasized that the 2024 rate projections were a “close call.” Breakdown of what the 19 FOMC participants saw for 2024: 4 went for no cut, 7 went for one cut and 8 voted for two cuts >>> ''hawkish dot plots'' U.S CPI : was 1st time since October report that the core monthly CPI undershot median forecast , and 1st time since Sep 2021 that super-core inflation showed a monthly decline >>> most elements of it all had a slight dovish tilt France's Macron defends decision on snap legislative elections, urges voters to defeat far-right, going to get wilder, ALL about alliances within the -3- sides Air France–KLM tops world chart of sustainable aviation fuel usage Rheinmetall opens repair facility for combat vehicles in Ukraine Enormous deposit of rare earth elements discovered in heart of ancient Norwegian volcano Buenos Aires rocked by clashes over Milei reforms UK's Labour to close tax loophole for thousands of private equity investors US expands Russia sanctions, targets chips sent via China Swiss parliament rejects European climate ruling IEA projects 8 million barrel per day oil surplus by 2030 >>> this is big DoubleLine’s Gundlach says he's 'less confident' in Fed delivering one rate cut in 2024 ( msn.com ) El-Erian, Michele Hear Fed Whispering ‘September’ Even If Powell Won't Say It - Bloomberg Biden heads to G7 summit focused on Ukraine aid, China's support for Russia ( msn.com ) France's Macron defends decision on snap legislative elections, urges voters to defeat far-right ( msn.com ) The elections is turning into a series of spectacular train-wrecks on the French Right. Republican implosion the other day, now Zemmour's far right party came unstuck Head of French conservative party expelled as recomposition of the right accelerates ( lemonde.fr ) IEA projects 8 million barrel per day oil surplus by 2030 ( msn.com ) this IS HUGE US expands Russia sanctions, targets chips sent via China ( msn.com ) Air France–KLM tops world chart of sustainable aviation fuel usage ( balkangreenenergynews.com ) Enormous deposit of rare earth elements discovered in heart of ancient Norwegian volcano ( msn.com ) Gerald Group Says It Was Hit by $49 Million Tin Fraud - Bloomberg Apple market cap passes Microsoft after AI launch at WWDC ( qz.com ) Tesla investors will vote on Elon Musk's pay. What Wall Street is saying ( qz.com ) Migros vor Dammbruch: Am Dienstag kriegen 300 oder mehr die Kündigung – Inside Paradeplatz AI's looming climate cost: Energy demand surges amid data center race - Nikkei Asia Rheinmetall opens repair facility for combat vehicles in Ukraine ( defensenews.com ) Rishi Sunak aide placed bet on election date days before announcement | General election 2024 | The Guardian 'It would be the death of entrepreneurship': City alarm over Labour capital gains hike ( cityam.com ) Buenos Aires rocked by clashes over President Milei reforms ( bbc.com ) Swiss parliament rejects European climate ruling - SWI swissinfo.ch