Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of US banks including JP Morgan Chase
Steen/Saxo's latest : stagflation light ahead : This will mean that the US will experience a period of high inflation and slow economic growth. This will be a difficult period for the US economy, but it is something that we believe is unavoidable. So it's time for policy makers to be afraid of the answers to their questions: Debt is not free, economies do not grow from lack of productivity, and you cannot just leave voters and economic agents behind while the government's hand increases. This coming stagflation will be a positive step towards resetting the economy to focus on the real challenges: better, cleaner energy, a bigger real economy, and much better education and social policies'
GSAM indicating their preference for bonds over equities right now:“ ... we have seen a lot of volatility when it comes to inflation. But that also creates the opportunity to buy bonds at a real rate that we haven’t seen in well over a decade”
As China announces that it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment data (because the rate is very high lol), a reminder that they have been steadily publishing fewer and fewer economic indicators in recent years as the data has become less rosy
J.P. Morgan raises the 2023 global emerging market corporate high yield default forecast to 9.7% from 6%, says China property expected to account for nearly 40% of 2023’s corporate default volumes, followed by 35% from Russia and 12% from Brazil
Investors are the least bearish since February 2022 in the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, with cash levels plunging from 5.3% to 4.8%
U.S retails : 3mos annualized change up to +7% in August (best since Oct 2022), pretty strong!, however U.S NAHB housing market index much weaker at 50.0 (forecast was 56 and prev 56)
Fed President Neel Kashkari remained hawkish, emphasizing data dependence. He acknowledged the most recent inflation reports as positive, however he is still not convinced inflation is on the path to 2% >>> Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees 3Q growth at 5.0% up from 4.1% last, not going to pause on this then + retail sales above
RBA minutes : slight bias towards holding steady at next meeting - close call. Reserve Bank of New Zealand leave cash rate unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected
Canada inflation jumped (back) to 3.3% in July up from 2.8% in June >>> important move back up given that BoC was one of the first to pause in Jan, only to restart due to inflation, implication/influence Fed talks ?
Russian court bans UBS, Credit Suisse from subsidiary disposals
Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? / Thread
Markets :
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries on 2009 highs +1.85% (from -1.1% in early 2022), China Holdings of US Treasuries drop to lowest level since 2009,
USDCNH 7.32, grinding higher, a deval is very dangerous from here, in term of sentiment in China, gives incentive to bypass capital controls, hence PBOC intervening, trying to keep the trade balance in check, stop a spiral down.. >>> the whole chinese chess board of a real estate is creating a few cracks in a few EMG areas, so we need to clearly beware (globally) if USDCNH had a decent push up
GOLD pretty key levels around here 200dma, XAGUSD 22.60
The FANG+ index retested its Q4 2021 highs almost perfectly and seems to have formed a double top - given concentration of risk, S&P7's etc - must keep an eye on
USDollar on the cusp of a decent move up overall, vs EMG, USDJPY (expectations BoJ stops it 145-148 area..), EURUSD woul drequire weekly close below 1.0875 probably, CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area (chart)
Fill your boots!
Travellers will see queuing time double at French border due to post-Brexit checks | The Independent or avoid the summer and busy bank holidays, IF you can
War photographer James Nachtwey: Capturing conflict, heroism, history | 60 Minutes - CBS News terrible, awful, horrific stuff - stop this! >>> James Nachtwey was in Ukraine at the start of the war, photographing the bodies of civilians that Russian troops had executed. Nachtwey said that of all the military brutality he captured in his career, the Russians “stood apart.”
GOP sees turnout disaster without Trump | The Hill >>> Republican strategists are worried that if former President Trump doesn’t secure the GOP’s presidential nomination next year, or if he is kept off the ballot because of his mounting legal problems, it could spell a voter turnout disaster for their party in 2024
Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Chart Of The Day - Retail Investor REIT Allocations Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? Yesterday I shared a chart on Twitter (well, what is now called “X”, but as I’ve been on it since 2009 I still call it Twitter) — it showed fund managers… https://t.co/NQKqGo2Tow" / X just to show or say that a lot has been priced in by markets - already..... the very contrarian investors will start to notice
CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area
