EMG fallout, Argentina devalued its currency by about 20% and hiked rates to 118%.. after right-wing populist Javier Milei won Sunday's presidential primary elections >>> 20+ years ago, I recall talking about hedging strategies to some you, USD/ARS was 1.0000, great stories.. it is now at 350 to the $
BEIJING (Reuters) -An unusually public claim by a Chinese professor (Peking University professor Zhang Dandan) the country's youth jobless rate might have hit close to 50% in March has stoked a debate about official data and a soft labour market, despite curbs on negative portrayals of the economy, while the National Bureau of Statistics said that month's jobless rate for people between the ages of 16 and 24 was just under 20% only >>> so now, they are not going to report youth data as they are looking at changing how they collate it
Chinese authorities are considering cutting the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008 >>> 'deeflation' in China? Will it spread to the West? that's a risk going fwd as it really looks like a credit crisis looming in China >>> China lowered key interest rates, even though some talk of a surprise, it clearly isn't, markets increasingly driven by expectations of more sugar to come one way or another, not always a good sign
Central Bank of Russia hikes 350bps to 12% in 'extraordinary meeting' after Ruble crash through the 100 level..
NY Fed survey of consumer exp : showing a broad decline in inflation expectations and improving consumer finances, short-term infl exp feel to 3.5%, while 3 and 5y exp declined to 2.9%..
UBS to pay $1.4 billion fine for fraud in mortgage-backed securities, the combine fines of UBS and CS over the last 20years, is a staggering +$30bn
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being refilled, nearly150k barrel increase over the last week is the biggest since Jun 2020 (reserve decline over the past 2 years is over 270m barrels, so long way to go)
UK Unemployment rate increases in three months to June as wages continue to grow >>> UK wages growth fuels infl concerns, private sector pay rose 8.2% in Q2
Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom, JPY failed to rally
Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals
Markets :
SPX back 'just' above 50dma, but beware when all/most is driven daily by ODTE options flows!
Duration, yields making new highs, plenty of '20+y ears highs in 10y yields' out there, including 30y mortgage rates heading above 8% in many parts of the U.S >>> helping USDollar still, JPY did not react positively to a very strong Q2 GDP data
EMGFX could awaken again, been plenty of buyers there, if US rates continue, Argentina, Russia, China and few others could suddenly be questioned..
does it turn into one of those nightmare scenario ? hard to argue why it should not, if sanctions stay on for years or decade to come >>> hikes by 350bps to 12%
pas chic
Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals | Financial Times (ft.com) madness
USDJPY - up and away till BoJ makes a stand
