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UST 30y highest yield since 2011, 4.19% / Fed speakers post CPI / SPX500 50ma 4473, NQ 15300



  • US 30-Year Treasury auction signals weak demand to wrap up week of big sales >>> U.S CPI came in as expected, ex-shelter came in basically flat, shelter is the main remaining issue

  • Fed President Mary Daly downplayed the improvement in inflation data and emphasized the data dependence of upcoming rate decisions. Fed's Collins: We are near or perhaps at a sufficiently restrictive level of rates, Feds Harker:The Fed is making progress on its inflation fight, Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be>>> they mostly sound like it's nearly done, Nov still in play, only just Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be

  • RBA Lowe: Things are moving in the right direction. Too early to declare victory, rates are restrictive so we are calibration stage with policy

  • Fed QT paused last week, balance sheet remain almost unchg at $8.2trn

  • FT-The ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ landing. Straightenin’ the curves, yeah, flattenin’ the hills 

  • Apple has bought back nearly $600bn in stock over the past 10 years, which is larger than the market cap of 490 Co's in the S&P500

  • Twittereee : X : “Lawful But Awful” Content to be hidden...

  • Glencore : We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end-of-life electronics, and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds

  • That's what you call a hike! : Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank has hiked its main interest rate to 25%, up from 11%, it said in a statement dated Tuesday

  • UBS voluntarily terminates guarantee agreement with Swiss government

  • US Sec. of State Blinken: The release of Americans in prison in Iran is a positive step

  • OPEC sees global #oil demand rising over 2 million barrels per day this year and next year. Sees oil supplies rising by about 1.4 or 1.5 million barrels this year and next year, now, if true, in my calculation, we have a shortage... this would mean $100 WTI again soon...

 

Markets :

  • Forget about VIX, it's all about ODTE on daily basis, we've had a few examples lately, when SPX looks 'happy^' and has a sudden decent dip daily, all about #ODTE !

  • SPX500 near that 'holy' trend support and just above 50gma around here 4473, M NQ is breaking/has broken 50dma at 15300 already, ALL about weekly close to confirm this downside risk

  • USDollar firmer together with UST yields, initially 'unch' after U.S CPI, clear reaction yesterday in long-end and thus supply looks to be 'the' main issue going forward, CROSSJPY's taken previous stops 158+ eurjpy etc, maybe head-fake let's see over next few days..

  • Short-term real rates moving higher, real rates will continue to surge unless core inflation starts to accelerate (with rent softening) or unless the Fed starts cutting

 





Tech earnings season is winding down, and if there’s one takeaway from the results so far, it’s that the AI craze is still driving the narrative for industry’s biggest companies.





Sounds great, I was listening to most of this chat, please tell me how and who will define "healthy speech," and "awful but lawful speech"?


classic







have a wonderful weekend

Team PVM




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