FED minutes : hawkish >>> no wonder with such strong data, Atlanta Fed GDPNow near 5.8% ! for Q3 GDP (even if it will probably come down some - hopefully!), retail sales and so on, U.S macro remains very strong - China macro pretty poor to say the least, stormy times ahead, check technical picture below from Saxo and Bridgewater !
Zhongrong International Trust Co. missed payments on dozens of products and has no immediate plan to make clients whole, indicating troubles at the embattled Chinese shadow bank are deeper than previously known, China Latest: Country Garden warned of "major uncertainties" in bond redemption and said trading of some local notes will remain halted
Many economists willing to ignore Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and now (quite possible) banks including JPM. >>> IMHO, the circumstances are quite different from the 2011 scenario when S&P downgraded the U.S., in 2023, the fiscal situation is far worse and much more worrisome
“It’s the tendency for rates to be higher that I think most investors are missing,” PGIM's Greg Peters. “I don’t think investors have accepted that reality,” nor digested the fact that policymakers cannot “easily and readily cut rates” as they once did
The head of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has expressed concern that political resistance to climate and environmental measures is spreading from the US to the UK and China abandons Paris agreement, making U.S. (and others..) efforts painful and pointless
Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries has fallen 41% since early 2020, to the lowest level in more than six years. China sold $11.3 billion of the debt in June to bring its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since mid-2009
-Vietnamese EV maker VinFast is now worth more than Ford and GM after Nasdaq debut
RICO : The fourth criminal prosecution of former President Trump makes use of a law most commonly associated with organized crime
Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are ready and waiting for stocks to plunge and bargains to pop up, Robert Kiyosaki says >>> think we can easily agree on a 10pct correction in the near future
Tesla made its second round of price cuts in China this week, further fueling concerns of reigniting a price war
UK launches £1 billion fintech fund to compete with Silicon Valley
Coinbase gets green light to let US investors trade crypto futures >>> should not change odds of spot BTC, but shows coinbase doing the right thing with regs to help the cause
RBNZ leave rates unchanged but signal no cuts until 2025
Markets :
SPX500 closed 2days in a row now below the 50dma (4472), firs time since late March 2023, given positioning, sell rallies as long as we stay below said levels
BIG tech update below, IMHO right now we are possibly on the cusp of a few bigger things to happen over next few weeks, September looms, beware stormy weather ahead >>> UST yields-duration, USD, EMGFX, Nasdaq, as usual all the same ish trade, do not underestimate, change of momentum now that say SPX500 trades below 50dma (if we make a new lows most days etc..as we did again last night), NQ same picture, FANGS+ etc etc see techs below
USD stays bid together with duration selling off still, higher yields, UST 10's to 5% ? that's the risk over next few months/weeks, September etc
20230821_E-CATALOGUE_Tjukurpa-Kutjara-Kiritji-Yankaltjunku-Two-Stories_LR_P.pdf (redotgallery.com) New Warakurna Exhibition - truly brilliant stuff - exhibition by my good friend GP - feel free to get in touch with him direct
Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update | Saxo Group (home.saxo) and Technical analysis DAX40 AEX25 BEL20 CAC40 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) - main points below
S&P 500. Downtrend. Broken below key support at 4,455. Likely to drop below 4,400. Next support at 4,340
Nasdaq 100 Downtrend . Support at 14,750
HangSeng bearish. Testing support at 18343. Next support at 18,052
DAX Bearish. Rejected at 16K. Likely to drop to 15,482 support area
AEX25 Bearish. Support at 748
CAC40 Key support at 7,251. If broken downtrend to 7,100
EURUSD Likely to be range bound between 1.0833 and 1.1065
Dollar Index rejected at key resistance at 103.28
GBPUSD is struggling for upside momentum
USDJPY broken resistance at 145. Next is 148. Could form top pattern
EURJPY above strong resist at 158. Likely to move to 160.60
AUDUSD forming bottom and reversal pattern
Gold XAUUSD Close to testing June low at 1,892. RSI bearish
Silver XAGUSD testing support at around 22.15
Copper below 370. Next support at 360-356
Brent rejected at resistance at 88.20. Expect correction down to around 83
Dutch Gas uptrend.
US 10-year uptrend. Could move to 2022 peak at 4.32
CTA : this is no longer a "buy the dip" market 1. "SPX is currently through GS short term CTA threshold trigger for the first time since May 24th and below the S&P500 50-day moving average. There has been a clear shift in sentiment over the past few weeks..." 2."Investors have shifted their trading behavior from a BTD “Buy the dip” market to STR “Sell the Rally” market. This is a new change in tone and sentiment. This is something that I have not said often..." (Scott Rubner) - confirmed!
China Abandons Paris Agreement, Making U.S. Efforts Painful and Pointless | The Heritage Foundation good grief
Nothing 'really' new for those following closely, couple of weeks old, but nonetheless pretty interesting take before and after
Bank of Ireland apologises for IT blunder that saw extra money appear in some bank accounts – The Irish Times the police had to stand in front of cash machines to stop folks taking cash out :-)
what a life
EURUSD 1.05 ?
