Powell at Jackson Hole : markets have been ripping higher, back to all time highs (pretty much), Why talk 50bps ? credit spreads are just fine, bonds are steady... call for 25bps looks likely IMHO, thus 100bps is a little too much priced in for 2024.. >>> we had the fastest rally in risk (pretty much ever) last 2-3weeks with softer USD >> beware snap back the other way is Powell doesn't satisfy markets , which are hoping to hear 50bps in Sep >>> hedge USD shorts (reduce-buy USDCALLS), UST longs, and long risks going into JH Friday afternoon US PAYROLLS revised down 818K in preliminary revision (for 1y between March 2023 and 2024) >>> Ai, quantum computing, 1000's of economists and they still can't even come close to being right.. and the likes of China gets criticised for their data... (China's population is 3x bigger..), amazing really, ''the largest revision in 15years'' FOMC minutes:  The FOMC minutes to the July meeting suggested a  rate cut is likely in September . The minutes stated that “the vast majority” of participants believed that if data before September prints within expectations “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Blackstone : Optimism and Uncertainty on the Menu for Jackson Hole - good read Ross Garnaut has cautioned Australia against putting all its eggs in the AUKUS basket at a time when relations with China are growing ever more important Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging market >>> this IS a huge switch if indeed confirmed The latest independent forecasts for UK economic growth have been released, The average for 2024 is up to a new high of +1.1% - having begun the year at just +0.4%. Heading into the Budget in late October the OBR now looks a bit light at +0.8% OZ : Sun Cable: Plibersek approves first stage of world’s biggest solar and battery project Crude Oil falls to lowest price since January Federal Reserve Board - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30–31, 2024 Vast Majority' Saw September Cut As Likely Appropriate Downside Risks To Employment Seen As Increased Almost All' Officials Exp Continued Disinflation Saw Upside Risks To Inflation As Diminished Some Saw Higher Risk Of More Serious Labour Deterioration Ahead of Jackson Hole : Joe Zidle: Optimism and Uncertainty on the Menu - Private Wealth Solutions EMEA ( blackstone.com ) Ukraine war latest: 'Mass disruption' to messaging apps in Russia; Moscow comes under huge drone attack | World News | Sky News Decoding Kursk: Is the End in Sight in Ukraine? | Royal United Services Institute ( rusi.org ) Iran says it will not take ‘hasty action’ against Israel for killing of Hamas political leader ( msn.com ) Sun Cable: Plibersek approves first stage of world's biggest solar and battery project | RenewEconomy Understanding US Treasury Auctions What You Need to Know | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Significance of US Treasury Auctions: US Treasury auctions help fund government operations and provide a real-time indicator of investor confidence in the U.S. government's creditworthiness, with auction results influencing interest rates and impacting global financial markets. Investor Insights from Auctions: Treasury auctions offer valuable information about market dynamics, including demand for safe-haven assets, inflation expectations, and potential signals about future Federal Reserve actions. The yields and demand observed in these auctions reflect broader economic sentiments and expectations. Key Metrics to Watch: Several metrics, such as the bid-to-cover ratio, high yield, tail and stop-through, and the participation of indirect, direct, and primary dealer bidders, provide insights into the strength and nature of demand at Treasury auctions. These metrics help investors understand market appetite, potential risks, and the overall health of the bond market Why bitcoin isn’t the new gold | Post by Joseph Cavatoni, John Reade | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council As the Rich Snap Up Gold Bars, Storage Vaults Brace for Business - Bloomberg Kamala Harris raised about half a billion in a month: report ( qz.com ) Kamala Harris wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% ( qz.com ) Citi Says Hedge Funds Are Using Dollars for New Carry Trades ( yahoo.com ) Former ambassador to China speaks on AUKUS. We should listen ( crikey.com.au ) BMW recalls hit 720,000 cars due to fire risk ( qz.com ) Boeing pauses 777X test flights and faces 787 Dreamliner inspections ( qz.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Bloomberg: "A growing chorus of Chinese economists called on Beijing to break away from an implicit budget deficit ceiling, opening the door to more central government borrowing as a way to shore up the faltering economy." https://t.co/FrlWE0ms7V " / X Forecasts_for_the_UK_economy_August_2024.pdf ( publishing.service.gov.uk )

Kamala Harris will push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from the current 21%, This has been a fairly standard Dem position since Trump cut the rate from 35% (and arguably even before then), which is not a huge surprise, they would need a Dem's congress in order to enact, as it will be a non-starter for GOP FED update : 98bps or so priced in for 2024 and about 190bps over next 12mos.. Donald Trump said he'd want Elon Musk in his Cabinet Americans paid for the Trump Tariffs—and Would Do So Again /CATO Institute Iran-backed Palestinian groups claimed responsibility for what they said was a “suicide mission” in Tel Aviv on Sunday , and warned of further such operations as long as Israel maintains its military campaign in Gaza SPX5600 : The panic round trip is over. Things from here are much more tricky. 5600, give or take, is huge, and acts as a resistance. Supports are 5500, 5450, and then the big 5400 area >>> so no rate cut needed anymore with SPX back on ATH's ?? USDollar stays soft overall, showing signs of breaking through some big tech levels, market been long USD carry for nearly 2years..GOLD keeps on trucking, Silver not far behind, and XPT too should join in >>> #GDX been lagging - better value from here together with #SILJ ECB may need to cut rates again in September, Rehn says..and EZ current account surplus at €50.5B in Jun. That's a record high >>> 1.20+ eurusd ?? 1.50 Cable ? Riksbank cuts 25bps, and opens doors to cut at each meeting this year, as expected Biden hails Harris as the future in emotional farewell ( yahoo.com ) Harris proposes raising corporate tax rate to 28% to help pay for campaign promises ( msn.com ) Donald Trump said he'd want Elon Musk in his Cabinet ( yahoo.com ) .. really.. Six hostages' bodies retrieved, Israel's military says - BBC News Iran tried to hack Trump, Harris campaigns FBI concludes ( yahoo.com ) Russia-Ukraine war live: civilians flee Pokrovsk as Russia’s army bears down on key eastern Ukraine city ( msn.com ) Americans Paid for the Trump Tariffs—and Would Do So Again | Cato at Liberty Blog ECB may need to cut rates again in September, Rehn says ( rte.ie ) Swedish central bank lowers key interest rate ( rte.ie ) Javier Blas on X: "Goldman Sachs has published a new report looking at the impact of the shift in Chinese economic growth / policy into commodities. Unsurprisingly, "ferrous metals" (aka, iron ore and steel) are the most negatively affected, echoing my @Opinion column: https://t.co/BeDwPgyCAm https://t.co/UCps2oAbT7 " / X AMD eyes Nvidia in buying ZT Systems for $4.9 billion ( qz.com ) Goldman Sachs drops recession odds to 20% on retail sales, jobless claims ( qz.com ) Stocks go down (2weeks ago), 30% chance of recession, 2weeks later stocks back up and no risk of recession... China Passes the Regional Growth Mantle to India ( finews.asia ) SEC charges Carl Icahn with hiding billions of dollars worth of stock pledges ( msn.com ) so he is charged $2 'million'.. #GDX breaking up

FOMC minutes first, then all ears and eyes this week on Jackson Hole, where the conference is called : “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” >>>> might get a clear signal for Sep FOMC meeting, although note FED is data dependent, so they will still have Sep NFP before the meeting >>> Fed Meeting Minutes - Wed, S&P Global Services PMI data and July Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 4. July New Home Sales data and Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed speaker events this week #USDollar soft overall, GOLD main conduit, note on Wed, U.S employment data will be revised down 600K to 1.2mio is the range of expectations, #USDJPY probably topped out again in resistance area 149-151 JPY. SPX500 and other indices, went from oversold/fear 5th August to well overbought by last Friday, shorts should get some interest to sell again (Powell unlikely to call and satisfy markets with a 50bps call in Sep, with over 100bps priced in for 2024, there is room for disappointment) Friedman “Not such a thing as unbalanced budget you either pay it: - via taxes - via inflation - or via borrowing, keep your eyes on one thing only, how much the government is spending” U.S debt has gone from $22trn to $35trn over the last 5years, some 60% increase, and next to nothing will be done about it (and go higher till it becomes a crisis) >>> markets beginning to price this via a softer #USDollar #GOLD making new highs etc Bernstein Reiterates Tesla As Underperform - CNBC "We don’t believe that Tesla will be able to regain share or grow materially until it launches all new, lower priced offerings – likely only in 2026 and 2027 – and believe the company’s valuation is increasingly disconnected from prevailing fundamentals." ...(like the CEO..) Nikkei Asia: " ETF gold demand reached net inflows of 48.5 tonnes, or $3.7 billion, in July , according to the World Gold Council. It was the highest level since the record 185.4 tonnes in March 2022 FED's Goolsbee said the labor market and some leading indicators on the economy are flashing warning signs, adding there are concerns unemployment will continue to rise . “Historically, if the unemployment rate starts going up, if temporary employment numbers go negative, that’s kind of a leading indicator,” Goolsbee said on National Public Radio Friday. “There are some various leading indicators of recession, and some of those are giving warning lights, but there’s cross currents” China's youth unemployment rate climbed to 17.1% in July There are 476K new homes for sale in the U.S, the highest inventory since Feb 2008 JeffCurrie / Gold, Oil, and Copper Prices Are Set to Rise, This Energy Analyst Says. What’s Driving Demand Now Taiwan's #gold reserve supports value of national currency: Central bank Ukraine says it has destroyed second Russian bridge in Kursk | Evening Standard Blinken arrives in Israel as Gaza ceasefire talks enter crucial phase ( msn.com ) Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 August 2024 | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Markets brace as all eyes on Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole ( msn.com ) 'Powerful Democrats' pushed President Biden out in 'coup': NYT columnist ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris wants to expand Child Tax Credit, give new parents $6,000 ( qz.com ) Harris releases economic plan aiming to lower housing costs, end price gouging ( msn.com ) >> nothing really concrete, lots of spending ideas, cut student debt, nothing about U.S debt, it will continue to go through thew roof.. #USD US secretary of state Antony Blinken travels to Israel | News UK Video News | Sky News China's youth unemployment rate climbed to 17.1% in July ( msn.com ) Gold ETF inflows reach 2-year high, driven by expected U.S. rate cut - Nikkei Asia Taiwan's gold reserve supports value of national currency: Central bank - Focus Taiwan Gold, Oil, and Copper Prices Are Set to Rise, This Energy Analyst Says. What’s Driving Demand Now. ( msn.com ) Wealth tax on super-rich could raise £1.5tn globally, campaigners say | The super-rich | The Guardian Hundreds Of Brand-New Teslas Roasting Under The Florida Sun In Overgrown Field | Carscoops Elon Musk's X is still losing advertisers — and their money ( qz.com ) Google Pixel security risk leaves millions vulnerable to hackers ( qz.com ) Ukrainian saboteurs blamed for blowing up Nord Stream pipelines ( telegraph.co.uk ) Banque Havilland: Is UBS Kicking the Owner Family Out? ( finews.asia ) David Rowland.. Der grosse UBS-Trick mit der langsamen CS-Integration – Inside Paradeplatz Another climber dies on Matterhorn in southern Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Too much traffic How Coco Chanel spent her exile in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch

S&P 500 moved into positive territory for August! only about 2% from all time highs...'' Momentum Tech has almost a full retracement and back to fully overbought'''... Remember the panic last week and calls from prominent folks for an immediate 75bps cuts ?... if any logic, there is no need for any cuts now then!! >>> strong data on retail sales and jobless claims that helped to calm the recession fears seen earlier in the month, Walmart reported better results and a strong outlook also helped overall sector, #VIX equity vols been coming off pretty sharply from 65 and back to 15, and pushed risk back higher >>> only about 35bps priced for Sep FED now >>> JACKON HOLE up next for statement of any kind Higher vols - too much leverage = forced selling/unwinding, the reverse is what we've seen last 10days... #systematicinvesting When the stock market drops like a rock, losing 12% in two weeks, then jumps 10% in the next two weeks, is this the sign of a healthy market? #NIKKEI was more like down 27% and up 25% or so Kamala Harris' plan to lower grocery bills includes a ban on corporate 'price gouging'... ''' She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed''.. Trump will be ordered to serve time in prison when he is sentenced for falsifying business records in September , a Fox News  columnist has said FT - How much will higher tariffs hurt China?. The bigger challenge the country faces is a policy-driven debt-deflation loop August BofA Global Fund Managers’ Survey/Thread #TLT Bond traders are now more bullish of 10-year Treasuries than any other period on record/Thread, and data is stronger than expected.. The UK economy grew 0.6% over three months, another solid quarter! Iranian banks hit by major cyber attack, reportedly one of largest in history UK economy grows 0.6% - as general election and strikes partially blamed for flatline in June | Business News | Sky News Wall Street follows Europe and FTSE higher as US retail sales rise more than expected ( yahoo.com ) Walmart gives big clue on chance of US recession - days after grim warning from Home Depot | This is Money Jim Bianco on X: "1/7 August BofA Global Fund Managers’ Survey, 189 mgrs/$508B AUM. We see a definite pattern: Worried about a recession Expect AT LEAST four rate cuts * Rotating out of stocks into bonds Good look into what is expected and priced into markets. Contrarians take note" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Wow. Bond traders are now more bullish of 10-year Treasuries than any other period on record. Open interest in 10-year note futures jumped to almost 5 million contracts on Tuesday, implying that traders expect further bond gains. Over the last 2 years, open interest has https://t.co/EEInf8yljv " / X The Dow jumps 300 points on strong retail sales and job growth ( qz.com ) Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway shakes up holdings as Ulta, Sirius XM, Chubb win big ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris plans to take on high grocery bills by banning 'price gouging' ( qz.com ) How much will higher tariffs hurt China? ( ft.com ) Elon Musk may have to sell billions in Tesla stock to rescue X | Fortune Trump held another press conference - but it was the same old shtick ( msn.com ) Donald Trump to Be Sentenced to Prison in September: Fox News Columnist ( msn.com ) The Telegraph on X: "📸 Watch: Donald Trump says he's ‘entitled’ to make personal attacks on Harris if he wants to https://t.co/yVokJ36niv " / X Trump’s fury over Harris’ switch with Biden is increasingly driving his campaign | CNN Politics Iranian Banks Hit By Major Cyber Attack, Reportedly One Of Largest In Histo - i24NEWS NIKKEI up over 20% in not even 10days... #marketmadness

U.S CPI ever so slightly softer than expected, 2.9% vs 3% expected >>> we already have over 2% of Fed cuts priced in till end of 2025!...with inflation 2.5-3.0% and real growth 2-3%...looks rather optimistic on total cuts? Economic conditions in China “are like a ‘harsh winter’ that will be ‘longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected ,’ China Baowu Steel Group Corp.chairman Hu Wangming told staff ..” Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history , just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph RBNZ cut 25bps to 5.25% , as broadly expected, 25bps more on each of the 3 meetings in 2024 likely, based on recent downward revisions to growth/inflation QUINNIPIAC polls Pennsylvania: “.. Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin.” “She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed . And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.” Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media 8/14/24 - Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Senate Race: Casey Up 8 Points Over McCormick | Quinnipiac University Poll Donald Trump needs someone to tell him the truth: He’s losing ( thehill.com ) RBNZ cuts cash rate by 25 basis points; lowers rate forecasts ( cnbc.com ) NEW Cook Political Report/BSG and GS Strategy Group poll Arizona Harris 46% Trump 42% Georgia Harris 46% Trump 46% Michigan Harris 46% Trump 44% Nevada Trump 47% Harris 42% North Carolina Harris 46% Trump 44% Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 43% Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 43% World’s Top Steel Producer Warns of ‘Severe’ Industry Crisis - Bloomberg Hong Kong and China stocks jump after soft July economic data bolsters stimulus bets | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history, just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph. According to him, the current Ukrainian offensive will hurt Putin on many fronts: 🔹️ https://t.co/LZTMtEe5wA " / X Google could get broken up after losing DOJ's antitrust lawsuit ( qz.com ) Nord Stream: German arrest warrant for sabotage blast suspect - BBC News Stanley Druckenmiller trims holdings of ‘Magnificent Seven’ names - MarketWatch David Tepper's Strategic Moves in Q2 2024: A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Significant Reduction ( yahoo.com ) End Tribalism in Politics on X: "Bernie Sanders explains how the government is ran by lobbyists: “Everybody knows you have a government dominated by big money interests.” “Do you know how many lobbyists there are in Washington, D.C. representing the big drug companies? 1800.” “So there are 100 members of the https://t.co/ulj3YIFmSC " / X Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media - Other Media news - Tasnim News Agency SPX - short again?

FED pricing update : 105bps of cuts priced into 2024. SPX500 50dma around here 5335 area ahead of CPI this afternoon, estimate 2.9%, still 'deflating'..? Musk & Trump : ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview. Trump loosing it. Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite. Advertisers are abandoning X in spades, Trump media down fair bit too.. New swing states poll : (by Independent Center)   Wisconsin  Harris 49% Trump 42% Michigan  Harris 48% Trump 43% Pennsylvania  Harris 49% Trump 45% Fed Bostic speak:  Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates , emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting. “We want to be absolutely sure,” GS: Buybacks August to Sep buyback season is 2nd best of they year. Window for buybacks has now reopened with estimated $1.15 Trn worth of authorizations BOJ debated further rate hikes in July , prompting hawkish shift, so why is Japan’s BOJ risking to blow up the YEN carry trade and raising rates? >>> coz inflation has hit a 40 year high there as the currency has depreciated by 50% last few years.. Japanese consumers got crushed as they lose their buying power, chances are the crisis isn't over For the first time since Brexit, a UK government is explicitly saying that it would actively like to maintain alignment with new EU regulations #GBP UBS actively kicks out Swiss clients . UBS is massively increasing prices for those who no longer do business with the big bank China bond market bubble 30y yields.. #duration turning could turn other yields Goldman: US equity valuations have been and are still higher than the macro backdrop would normally suggest UK : real pay up, employment down, int rates generating some returns for savers, even global investors having a look at UK industries (GBP super low), and encouraging inflation data - not all that bad! Barron's: "#Buffett felt that the investment case for unloading the Apple stock was so compelling that he was willing to endure the tax consequences. Buffett essentially decided that he’d rather have cash equal to nearly 80% of the value of the Apple stake than the Apple stock." UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said investors should heed last week’s global selloff as a sign of “fragility in the system” The Dow jumps 250 points as wholesale inflation cools ( qz.com ) Why Harris ranks better on the economy than Trump (and Biden) ( yahoo.com ) Russian region declares state of emergency as Ukraine’s offensive causes chaos – POLITICO Iran's president tells Starmer retaliation against Israel 'is a right' ( msn.com ) BOJ debated further rate hikes in July, prompting hawkish shift ( msn.com ) Rising Pay, Falling Rates — Good News for UK Consumers - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Very good piece by Robin Harding: "There is a bubble in the Chinese government bond market — or so, at least, the People’s Bank of China would fervently like to believe. A bubble would be a worrying risk to financial stability. The existence of..." https://t.co/yddvrQuz1n " / X and China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview | Climate crisis | The Guardian ...yup... Donald Trump At Risk Of Losing Florida, Poll Suggests - Newsweek Trump Media stock hits new low after Donald Trump returns to X ( qz.com ) UAW Seizes on Donald Trump Praising Musk for Firing Workers - Bloomberg Product Safety and Metrology Bill a 'major post-Brexit moment' ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Steve Rosenberg on X: "There’s an Interesting opinion piece today in one of the (ultra) pro-Kremlin papers. It offers clues to how life inside Russia may change as a result of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/uvdtO8ffqX " / X On-the-Record Press Gaggle by White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby | The White House Advertisers are abandoning X in spades ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Hardly surprising! UBS schmeisst Schweizer Kunden aktiv raus – Inside Paradeplatz US plots break-up of Google to address monopoly fears ( msn.com ) Swiss government explains recommended rejection of biodiversity initiative - SWI swissinfo.ch NZ police race to recover meth-laced sweets distributed by charity - BBC News !! Extreme heat warnings across southern Europe as August temperatures rise | The Independent Stay cool!

1y inflation exp from ⁦N ew-York Fed is down to 2.97% in July  … lowest since November 2020 >>>> The median of these forecasts has the July core CPI up 0.19%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 3.2%, PPI next up later on Markets grinding higher as no retaliation in Iran, yet anyway, many threats but so far quiet.. Kursk offensive : Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi declared that Ukraine now controls around 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Kamala increasing her lead in the polls   What did we learn from that interview ?    In a rambling two-hour interview on X that was delayed by glitches, Trump also praised the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea as 'at the top of their game'-FT The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years #XAUUSD Barrick Gold excellent earnings report,  $300M free cash flow and a huge buy back program >>> most gold companies will see big cash flows with gold around $2400+ JP Morgan notes that equities are no longer a one-way trade as debate opens up on the downside risk to growth .  Where the market focus for 1H2024 was the path of inflation, 2H2024 is shaping up to be about risk.  JP Morgan is forecasting a 50bps Fed rate cut in each of the September and November FOMC meetings, as well as one 25bps cut in December The much-feared American recession isn't coming, Bank of America chief says.  Brian Moynihan warned of a dispirited consumer if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates soon. Goldman: We are tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.5% and Q3 at 2.6%. "Solid final demand growth is one reason why we expect demand for workers to hold up and prevent significant further deterioration in the labor market." The Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has dropped below $300 billion for the first time since 2021 . The RRP is one of the financial system's excess liquidity metrics and is widely watched by investors "Almost 90% of planned hydrogen plants have no buyers with contracts to use the fuel." UK labour market remains stronger than expected: unemployment rate fell from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter to 4.2 per cent - better than expected Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says war ‘coming home’ to Putin as Kyiv controls 1,000 sq km in Kursk ( msn.com ) Red Sea: Ship targeted in latest suspected attack by Yemen's Iran-sponsored Houthis ( msn.com ) Technical analysis Bullish Gold eyeing new all time high Bottom reversal in Silver and Copper | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Ohio? What Polls Reportedly Show - Newsweek i morning briefing: What did we learn from Trump’s ‘interview’ with Musk? ( msn.com ) Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. ( msn.com ) Elon Musk, Donald Trump event on X crashes site, Tesla CEO blames cyberattack ( cnbc.com ) Corridors of Power: Should America Police the World? - Series 1: 1. Iraq – For Every Insect There Is an Insecticide - BBC iPlayer       great documentary series A U.S. recession isn't coming, Bank of America CEO Moynihan said ( qz.com ) Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) Gold Revaluation Is More Responsible Money Creation Method ( moneymetals.com ) Why Almost Nobody Is Buying Hydrogen, Dashing Green Power Hopes - Bloomberg Brian Sullivan on X: "Albemarle stock worst in S&P 500 as lithium prices continue to crash. Production far outpacing demand growth along with gap b/w the 2 types of lithium needed for various batters (carbonate v. hydroxide) Piper Sandler note .. $ALB now down 58% in a year. https://t.co/zYZs63ROO4 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the https://t.co/NrL19XxqsE " / X Barrick Gold (GOLD) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates ( yahoo.com ) Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council JetBlue Begins $2.75 Billion Debt Sale, Gets Two Downgrades ( yahoo.com )    more debt! Elon Musk’s Big Government Grift | The New Republic Swiss authorities call for ideas for clearing ammunition from lakes - SWI swissinfo.ch The Rest Is Politics on X: "Rory clashes with MP David Davis on Brexit 👀 Watch the full interview tomorrow at 6pm on the Leading YouTube channel https://t.co/rpvmGWt0Eh " / X

1y inflation exp from ⁦N ew-York Fed is down to 2.97% in July  … lowest since November 2020 >>>> The median of these forecasts has the July core CPI up 0.19%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 3.2%, PPI next up later on Markets grinding higher as no retaliation in Iran, yet anyway, many threats but so far quiet.. Kursk offensive : Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi declared that Ukraine now controls around 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Kamala increasing her lead in the polls   What did we learn from that interview ?    In a rambling two-hour interview on X that was delayed by glitches, Trump also praised the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea as 'at the top of their game'-FT The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years #XAUUSD Barrick Gold excellent earnings report,  $300M free cash flow and a huge buy back program >>> most gold companies will see big cash flows with gold around $2400+ JP Morgan notes that equities are no longer a one-way trade as debate opens up on the downside risk to growth .  Where the market focus for 1H2024 was the path of inflation, 2H2024 is shaping up to be about risk.  JP Morgan is forecasting a 50bps Fed rate cut in each of the September and November FOMC meetings, as well as one 25bps cut in December The much-feared American recession isn't coming, Bank of America chief says.  Brian Moynihan warned of a dispirited consumer if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates soon. Goldman: We are tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.5% and Q3 at 2.6%. "Solid final demand growth is one reason why we expect demand for workers to hold up and prevent significant further deterioration in the labor market." The Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has dropped below $300 billion for the first time since 2021 . The RRP is one of the financial system's excess liquidity metrics and is widely watched by investors "Almost 90% of planned hydrogen plants have no buyers with contracts to use the fuel." UK labour market remains stronger than expected: unemployment rate fell from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter to 4.2 per cent - better than expected Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says war ‘coming home’ to Putin as Kyiv controls 1,000 sq km in Kursk ( msn.com ) Red Sea: Ship targeted in latest suspected attack by Yemen's Iran-sponsored Houthis ( msn.com ) Technical analysis Bullish Gold eyeing new all time high Bottom reversal in Silver and Copper | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Ohio? What Polls Reportedly Show - Newsweek i morning briefing: What did we learn from Trump’s ‘interview’ with Musk? ( msn.com ) Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. ( msn.com ) Elon Musk, Donald Trump event on X crashes site, Tesla CEO blames cyberattack ( cnbc.com ) Corridors of Power: Should America Police the World? - Series 1: 1. Iraq – For Every Insect There Is an Insecticide - BBC iPlayer       great documentary series A U.S. recession isn't coming, Bank of America CEO Moynihan said ( qz.com ) Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) Gold Revaluation Is More Responsible Money Creation Method ( moneymetals.com ) Why Almost Nobody Is Buying Hydrogen, Dashing Green Power Hopes - Bloomberg Brian Sullivan on X: "Albemarle stock worst in S&P 500 as lithium prices continue to crash. Production far outpacing demand growth along with gap b/w the 2 types of lithium needed for various batters (carbonate v. hydroxide) Piper Sandler note .. $ALB now down 58% in a year. https://t.co/zYZs63ROO4 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the https://t.co/NrL19XxqsE " / X Barrick Gold (GOLD) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates ( yahoo.com ) Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council JetBlue Begins $2.75 Billion Debt Sale, Gets Two Downgrades ( yahoo.com )    more debt! Elon Musk’s Big Government Grift | The New Republic Swiss authorities call for ideas for clearing ammunition from lakes - SWI swissinfo.ch The Rest Is Politics on X: "Rory clashes with MP David Davis on Brexit 👀 Watch the full interview tomorrow at 6pm on the Leading YouTube channel https://t.co/rpvmGWt0Eh " / X

After a volatile July, we got a wild start to August, as expected! S&P 500 index fell over 6% & Nikkei 225 index recorded a more dramatic 20% decline, as #VIX pretty much halved between Monday and Friday, both indices recovered about half of these losses, main market focus – Hard or Soft landing? the debate will continue, employment data is slowly getting worse, consumers are tapped out on debt, inflation is hurting...This week,. main data focus will be US CPI on Wed and Retail Sales Thursday UKR preparing for retaliation following incursion in Kursk region, while in Middle East, Iran threatens response, all out war etc, which has been down played by Israel, though many putting a higher probability of an Israel military action against Iran in August, beware South Korea and the U.S. will start their annual joint military exercises, Ulchi Freedom Shield, from August 19-29, focusing on enhancing capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats Tech Stocks just had their worst monthly performance relative to the S&P 500 in 22 years. But before this, they had their best month in 20 years. Absolutely wild!! Harris leads Trump on economy in poll that marks sharp sentiment shift US Election : Vice President Kamala Harris said she would respect the Federal Reserve’s independence , seeking to draw a contrast with her 2024 Republican rival Donald Trump, and that she plans to roll out elements of her economic agenda in the coming week APOLLO: “.. there are still no signs of a US recession , and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data .. “In short, Fed pricing is wrong, and the market is making the same mistake it made at the beginning of the year.” [Slok] Container shipping costs from China have spiked to their highest levels since 2022 Bank of Japan owns ~80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese stock market , according to Morningstar and the Tokyo Stock Exchange data! Uber CEO Is skeptical about Elon Musk’s Robotaxi idea The AI trade is losing its luster - or is it ? probably - after huge capex spending, and more to come into 2025, earnings must follow, #showqmethemoney time BofA Merrill Lynch "Base case remains: Buy the dip, stay in the market, elections matter, but economic growth and Earnings matter more..." #GOOG - FT/can anyone stop Google's illegal monopoly ? China's 30-year Bond Yield drops to an all-time low of 2.33% Humiliating blow for Putin as Russia's bloody war against Ukraine is brought far closer to home | World News | Sky News US deploys guided missile submarine to Middle East as Iran holds military drills following death of Hamas leader ( msn.com ) Israel-Hamas war latest: Leaders of France, Germany and Britain endorse calls for cease-fire in Gaza ( msn.com ) 'Too early to tell' if jobs slowdown amounts to 'real weakness': Fed's Daly ( yahoo.com ) Can anyone stop Google’s illegal monopoly? ( ft.com ) The AI trade is losing its luster ( yahoo.com ) Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump on the US economy ( ft.com ) Harris responds to Trump Fed comments; readies economic policy plan ( cnbc.com ) He's loosing it Trump falsely claims that Kamala Harris crowds are AI fakes ( telegraph.co.uk ) Taiwan Says Power Issues Prevent New Large Data Centers in North - Bloomberg Uber highlights autonomous vehicle efforts now that Tesla's in its rearview mirror ( yahoo.com ) #Madness Barchart on X: "Tech Stocks just had their worst monthly performance relative to the S&P 500 in 22 years. But before this, they had their best month in 20 years. Absolutely wild!! https://t.co/gx4t2LPsvg " / X UK inflation rate set to rise again ( thetimes.com ) Carl Quintanilla on X: "APOLLO: “.. there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data .. “In short, Fed pricing is wrong, and the market is making the same mistake it made at the https://t.co/0LncFNCob7 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Container shipping costs from China have spiked to their highest levels since 2022. Since the beginning of 2024, shipping rates have more than TRIPLED. It now costs ~$9,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York and ~$8,000 to Los Angeles. This has https://t.co/2iNEUfrqw3 " / X gmo_concentrate---is-it-like-2000-again_8-24.pdf A reckoning is coming for Florida's condo owners as buildings face millions in repairs ( yahoo.com ) TSMC's sales surge 45% in July due to strong AI chip demand ( qz.com ) Stellantis plans to lay off up to 2,450 workers making the Ram 1500 ( qz.com ) OneCoin fraud: UK's first crypto-related class action obtains freezing order – The Armchair Trader Trump campaign confirms it was hacked after POLITICO received internal documents from "Robert" - POLITICO

Markets have their best day since Nov 2022, so no rate cuts needed anymore ? Price action : m aybe, maybe some green shoots of hope for the bulls ...JPM's Andrew Tyler writes: "...if we use the MOC as a proxy, we saw consecutive days of more than $7bn decline to $2.5bn. Obviously, there is more to market structure than this, but it may mean the magnitude is decreasing", though worth noting VIX no lower (yet anyway) on a nearly 150 handle rally on SPX yesterday (just a tech bounce from oversold?),   VIX near 24 level... implies a 1.5% daily SPX move Harris and Trump agree on 10th Sep debate on ABC ''I could run the Federal Reserve better, claims Donald Trump'' good grief, just imagine this scenario Pro-Kyiv forces stormed into Russia's southwestern Kursk region on Tuesday morning, deploying around 1,000 troops and more than two dozen armoured vehicles and tanks, according to the Russian army US and other frustrated mediators call on Israel, Hamas to resume Gaza talks, saying, 'no excuses' UBS estimates the cumulative dollar-yen carry trade size at about $500bn and that about $200bn of those positions had been ditched over the past few weeks and According to Deutsche Bank, the Yen carry trade amounts to a whopping $20 trillion, or 505% of Japanese GDP based on Japan’s government balance sheet assets and liabilities mix. US weekly jobless claims came in at 233,000, down from a revised 250,000 -- a relief after last week's unemployment and growth scare, so no more rate cuts.. Elon Musk accused Twitter’s leadership of tipping the scales politically. But now he’s doing just that with X, he has created his own little personal political playground.. and it didn't take : Elon Musk shares fake news about England rioters being sent to Falklands - unacceptable Ugly 30y UST auction, the worst since November '23, tailing WI by 3.1bp at 4.314% U.S. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High of $1.14 Trillion Michael Pettis / Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s? Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely I could run the Federal Reserve better, claims Donald Trump ( thetimes.com ) What could possibly go wrong here.. US and other frustrated mediators call on Israel, Hamas to resume Gaza talks, saying, 'no excuses' ( msn.com ) Zelensky Says Russia Must Feel the War as Ukraine Presses Attack ( kyivpost.com ) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Russian intelligence knew about the preparations for operation in Kursk region but Russian General Staff ignored those reports and hid information from Putin. The Kremlin is now very unhappy with Gerasimov - Bloomberg, citing a source close to Kremlin. https://t.co/wCHkhWEQqX https://t.co/vA6qqvoH9C " / X Venezuela: Nicolás Maduro bans X for 10 days over Elon Musk row ( bbc.com ) Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts ( ft.com ) Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts. Resurgent Japanese currency forces speculators to shut down years’ worth of bets that could run into billions of dollars + Japan's $20 trn 'carry trade' poses risks amid central bank's policy shift | Economy & Policy News - Business Standard ( business-standard.com ) US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected in latest week ( msn.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Ugly 30y UST auction, the worst since November '23, tailing WI by 3.1bp at 4.314% - PD: 19.2% the highest since Nov '23 and 2nd highest since Dec '21 - Btc: 2.31 the 2nd lowest since Nov '23 - Directs: 15.5% the lowest since Feb - Indirects: 65.3% slightly below the 6-auc avg" / X The infrastructure moves bringing the US closer to lithium-ion self-sufficiency - Financial Times - Partner Content by Syensqo ( ft.com ) Trump and Harris agree to ABC presidential debate ( cnbc.com ) Analysis of Trump's Speech Finds Signs of Cognitive Decline ( msn.com ) The Rest Is Politics on X: "🗣️ “There’s no doubt social media has had a role.” Watch the full episode with @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK ⬇️ https://t.co/J7lesuUuCn https://t.co/DUjspFnLgF " / X Harris' VP pick Tim Walz doesn't own a single stock ( axios.com ) Elon Musk Has Turned X Into His Personal Political Playground | WIRED Elon Musk shares fake news about England rioters being sent to Falklands | Elon Musk | The Guardian More than half of new cars sold in China are now electric or hybrid ( cnbc.com ) Rheinmetall CEO Says Arms Boom Is the Biggest He’s Ever Seen - Bloomberg Microsoft, Palantir will sell AI to U.S. defense, intelligence agencies ( qz.com ) Weight-loss drug powers Lilly results, 2024 forecast raised by $3 billion ( msn.com ) Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX to pay over 12 billion to creditors ( qz.com ) Thiam gnadenlos: Rekurs gegen Freispruch von Haushälterin – Inside Paradeplatz

Of course it will change many things in the world..... but Wall Street got very bullish on Ai last 3-4nonths and price action/momentum pushed these markets to extremes, upgrades after upgrades, now we are in the phase of 'show me the money-earnings', after huge capex spent (and more to come to 2025), earnings are not following as quickly as markets hoped. ... Another example here : WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook U. S : Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year Novo Nordisk isn't selling as much Wegovy and Ozempic as expected As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand." A decade long dispute between Coca Cola and the U.S tax authorities has escalated to the point that it could owe $16bn in back taxes Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it’s a shortfall) GS: Spreads have now broken out of their recent range $LQD   $HYG - At 5.1%, the yield on the US IG index is near the lows since August 2022, 11% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest in over a decade If Japan can't even hike rates off ZERO without breaking the system, then why on earth would anyone want to own a long duration sovereign bon from any govt really (own not trade..) >>> Another ugly   10YR US Treasury auction yesterday - Tail over 3 bps, flight to safety ? Copper prices are down nearly 20% now from the top BofA: A reminder that asset prices don’t always go up, wealth effects can cut both ways. #INTC now trading at prices not seen since March 2014 (dividend adjusted) RBA : Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has vowed the RBA “will not hesitate” to hike interest rates to avoid exposing Australians to prolonged high inflation Harris running mate Gov. Tim Walz owns no stocks, bonds or real estate, disclosure shows Tension with Lebanon ‘may escalate into war,' Israel's defense minister says The 30-year fix mortgage rate fell to 6.55% last week ( qz.com ) To cut or not to cut Hey, Jerome Powell: Please don’t cut interest rates ( msn.com ) Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again - Q3 2024 | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) Harris running mate Tim Walz owns no stocks, bonds, real estate ( cnbc.com ) Tension with Lebanon ‘may escalate into war,' Israel's defense minister says | News ( yenisafak.com ) Tense Israel in waiting as attack threat looms | Reuters Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts ( ft.com ) My humble guess is we are half way through the carry unwind - no-one really knows exactly ‘Hurts everyone’: RBA’s rate rise warning ( msn.com ) China confirms the discovery of a major natural gas field in the South China Sea | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Coca-Cola’s mysterious tax formula ( ft.com ) Tier1 Alpha on X: "1/ An Important Thread On Volatility 🧵 Two days after the largest single-day intraday increase in $VIX in history, we had one of the biggest vol declines in history. Predictably, $SPX rallied. But let's be clear, this event has likely changed the calculus on many strategies. https://t.co/QNYonXiz3g " / X Microsoft says Delta ignored offers to help during tech outage ( qz.com ) Google antitrust: Microsoft’s 1998 case offers clues on what's next ( qz.com ) Novo Nordisk's Wegovy misses sales expecations ( qz.com ) WPP downgrades forecasts on global uncertainty despite FGS sale ( ft.com ) WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook, just not happening at the speed the mkt wants .............WPP is also investing more in AI tools, as well as services to clients based on data and technology to deliver advertising campaigns that are cheaper, faster and more targeted towards individual consumers. The group is committing an investment of £250mn every year in AI-driven technology...... in fact you could argue...it may be making their cost base worse rather than better$.... AI tools in advertising should deliver instantly to be honest Another disappointment for markets SMCI misses Q4 earnings, tops revenue guidance estimates ( yahoo.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/12 As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand." We must however think about the consequences systemically, and not incrementally. https://t.co/1P81y8C8RQ " / X Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it's a shortfall) | Electrek

FED pricing is back to about 40bps for Sep, went as high as 60bps or so on Monday, BoJ 'admitting' they wouldn't hike anymore if markets are volatile/unstable, not a good sign really, decent JPY (USDJPY highs 148 and now resistance-previous support..) & Nikkei squeeze overnight, it remains a relatively volatile market, most opinion will change daily...depending on price action...stay cool focus on your own risk management >>> US Treasury auctions (3-, 10-, 30-year) are key as yields hit the lowest since Dec 2023 Markets will remain volatile intra-day for a while , so long as VIX remains 20+ (it's not dead near 12-13 anymore..), the market is still highly leveraged, many 'real money' didn't do much on Monday/Tuesday, if VaR's remain high, expect better Eq sellers' on rallies, reducing risk on owned positions Harris' pick of Walz amps up excitement in Midwestern states where Democrats look to heal divisions Saudi Aramco to pay $31B in dividend despite declining profit - see below SunPower, once a venerated name in the US solar industry, has filed for bankruptcy , in 2021 , at the peak of the ESG bubble, SunPower was worth >9 billion #APPL Buffet got out for many reasons, including this one : Google antitrust ruling may pose $20 billion risk for Apple #GOOG #NOVO after huge rally YTD - another darling stock struggling after missing estimate Police are braced for riots in at least 30 locations today after more than a week of violence across the UK Mercedes-Benz EQE Fire Incident Raises Questions About Chinese EV Battery Safety #JPY : the nature of carry trades : they go up on the escalator and down the elevator...always Asia stocks buoyant, yen slumps after BOJ talks down rate hikes ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris ends the 'veepstakes,' picks Minnesota's Tim Walz ( qz.com ) Harris' pick of Walz amps up excitement in Midwestern states where Democrats look to heal divisions ( msn.com ) S&P Global's Dan Yergin: 'Quite striking' oil markets haven't preemptively priced in Mideast tension ( cnbc.com ) Thousands of police braced for day of riots as Elon Musk fans flames with tirade against Starmer | The Independent he's struggling, so he's spreading propaganda, and suing other companies for not spending on his platform.. 'It's war': X sues companies for not advertising on its platform ( msn.com ) ... Taste of thimgs to come in US in November.. whatever the outcome.. . UK Riots: Elon Musk’s X Drove Lies Right Through a UK Loophole - Bloomberg Javier Blas on X: "Saudi Aramco keeps its quarterly dividend (important for the government’s finances) at $31 bn, well above its free cash flow of $19 bn. Aramco is depleting its cash reserves to keep Mohammed bin Salman’s spending plans on track. At some point, a dividend cut is coming | #OOTT https://t.co/N4S22uQzj7 " / X and here Saudi Aramco to pay $31B in dividend despite declining profit ( msn.com ) Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ on X: "Grab a cup of coffee, you won't want to miss this Many are speculating that this week's sell off in the market is due to Bank of Japan's unexpected large interest rate hike which led to a massive unwinding of the yen carry trade Let's breakdown exactly happened 🧵: https://t.co/Kew8T5zntz " / X and What is the yen carry trade and why does it matter now? – The Armchair Trader >>> bottom line, a combination of events, suddenly triggers an overconfident and overleveraged markets, which said for months that nothing wrong can happen/it's all good, and suddenly it does.. it always comes along over the years, always, when markets get overly confident, nature of carry trades : they go up on the escalator and down the elevator...always SunPower files for bankruptcy, enters stalking horse asset purchase deal with Complete Solaria ( msn.com ) Google antitrust loss puts 25% of search revenue at stake ( qz.com ) SMCI misses Q4 earnings, tops revenue guidance estimates ( yahoo.com ) Palantir CEO Alex Karp Warns Of Severe 'Violent Interactions' In Middle East, Reaffirms Support For Israel — Stock Surges Over 12% In After-Hours Trading ( msn.com ) Novo Nordisk’s sales disappoint as bottlenecks hit weight loss drugs boom ( ft.com ) Mercedes-Benz EQE Fire Incident Raises Questions About Chinese EV Battery Safety - Businesskorea Izabella Kaminska on X: "🧵Aside from the headline news, today’s Russian prisoner swap seems to me to include a potentially involuntary limited hangout by the US. It pertains to the release of Vladislav Klyushin and what that suggests about how spies and spy agencies really fund themselves. The official" / X Uk riots live updates: Police brace for at least 30 riots today ( telegraph.co.uk ) we could go back to 148 area, markets on high vols now #USDJPY