The EIA report is making substantial damage for the energy bull case here with the headline that "the implied 4 week average of the gasoline demand is at a 25yr seasonal low", that's the top at $100 in place then..
ADP Private Payrolls 89K, Exp. 150K . "We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month... Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months." , ADP weak, jet JOLTS were much higher, so what will NFP tell us tomorrow..
-Rates are expected to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb >>> getting used to a more typical rate structure doesn’t sound like such a terrible thing. But after 15 years of living in IZIRP and NIRP and $30trn of funny money created, normal sounds, well, abnormal
China's holdings of US Treasuries continue to fall sharply. Since April, China has sold over $40 billion of US Treasuries. Since their peak roughly a decade ago, China has unloaded nearly $500 billon of US Treasuries
The total return of 30yr Treasury bonds is now negative since quantitative easing was launched, read this again, and while everyone is focused UST yields up, the Junk Bond yield has shot up to 9.25% (highest since last November). Corporate debt service is exploding, as revenue withers.
McCarthy ouster raises chances of government shutdown, Goldman says
Emerging market bond yields are sending a worrying signal
"The only way the Fed could help longer yields is by hiking so aggressively that markets are convinced a recession is imminent and rush to buy longer rates." -- Barclays
Janet Yellen said a surprisingly resilient US economy has prompted investors to question what it will take to bring inflation down, but she cast doubt on whether that would force interest rates to stay elevated for a long period
Matt Gaetz has thrown the House into chaos. What comes next is anyone’s guess...“You know what I think marches this institution towards chaos? Marching us towards the US Dollar not being the global reserve currency anymore.”
Hong Kong banks struggle to sell foreclosed homes even at 20% discount
JPMorgan steps up securitisation effort ahead of new US capital rules
FT-A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more. That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years
The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended just 4mos ago, now about $33.5trn
The U.S. is now importing more goods from Mexico than from China for the first time in 20 year
Markets :
For the first time since early October last year, no sector ETF is trading above its 50-day moving average (apart from the magnificent 7 index - is that's an official one)
Equity markets held up, SPX500 held the 200dma, pretty much to the point, defense stocks fell as paralyzed U.S House with no speaker puts UK/UKR aid at risk, small caps and financials in real danger of breaking long-term supports ( #XLF and #IWM )
#SPX500 has made 33 lower lows in the last 50 trading days which equals the most in its history, oversold ! maybe but doesn't necessarily mean much, if we were to break 200dma
Crude got smocked ! (...just when many invest banks got all bulled up for 120-150usd oil shock..classic)... 10$ down sharpish, still on trend higher, OPEC+ should know better that a $100+ price would risk a global slowdown (already fragile with rates..)
Duration risk : everyone wants toa void 'IT? become a credit risk...cost of capital, value of UST collateral matters, credit 'crunch' risk rising...
US Treasury Yields yesterday before ADP - which pushed them down about 6bps across curve :
-3-Month: 5.62% (highest since Jan '01)
-1-Year: 5.49% (highest since Dec '00)
-2-Year: 5.15% (highest since Jul '06)
-5-Year: 4.80% (highest since Jul '07)
-10-Year: 4.81% (highest since Aug '07)
-30-Year: 4.95% (highest since Sep '07)
A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more. That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years.
She's worried clearly
How America’s broken information environment birthed the chaos wrought by Matt Gaetz (msn.com) a lot spoken about 'chaos', good grief, U.S politics to get even worse from here
These UST need to stop going down, but the U.S government is addicted to spending..
Plenty of similar articles about new Funding requirements, not just financials mind
WTI
SPX500 - key levels calling for a volatile October/Q4, bearish sentiment vs many calls for 'bullish seasonality', all about 200dma 4200 area
