China ''considers'' issuing at least 1 tn yuan of additional sovereign debt for infrastructure spending to boost economic growth, which would raise budget deficit well above 3% cap, pretty big if/when confirmed
FED'S Logan : higher yields may mean less need to raise rates, that's a turn in wording at least... meaning, risk premium or 'term premia' is doing the job for them..similar to Golsbee, Bostic, Daly last week, so the message seems quite clear (supply issues always remain in the background though) >>> Two Federal Reserve officials have suggested that the central bank may leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in three weeks
From a US government spending perspective, it is astonishing to think that the huge government spending currently, is with a defense expenditure that has remained near historical lows! (chart available)
Bank of America's blunder on interest rates left it with a lopsided portfolio of long-dated bonds and almost $110 billion in paper losses >>> and that's ok ?
Metro Bank rescue deal - imposes 40% haircut on their Thier2 bonds due 2028
China’s rich entrust total strangers to sneak cash out of the Country. Professional wealth advisers connect clients to remittance firms that rely on customer trust—and sometimes criminal cash-BBG
The average U.S interest rate on US credit card balances has moved up to 21.2%. With data going back to 1994, that's the highest rate ever. 30y U.S. Mortgage Rates jump to 8.09%, the highest level in more than 23 years
IMF lowers global growth for 2024 to 2.9% (from 3%) and raises global CPI to 5.8% (from 5.2% in July), warns of inflation's tenacity
Rishi Sunak, who last week committed to building dozens of new transport projects across the country, now tells the BBC that they were merely a "range of illustrative projects that could be funded..."
Markets :
WTI chart below - large spec liquidation last week, and back on trend higher
SPX500 4200 200dma remain the key for Q4, U.S CPI up next, earnings season soon and geopolitics into the mix. Equity markets will like a softer usdollar and enough CTA short positioning out there to squeeze higher from here, big picture
Dutch TTF gas ending the day up 15% at €44/MWh as competition for supply heats up again
UST's reacting to FED talks, possible switch, 10's UST yields down about 20bps since Friday post NFP levels... huge supply this week though coming
USDollar has been overbought >> watch out FED switch and China stimulus >>> could force decent unwinding of long $$$'s out there, watch price action!! IF U.S CPI come in as expected or mild(er) we could well be onto some sort of a mini turn
8mins from Steen & Co
Reality vs the ''don't worry things are fine and rates are going lower again''
EURUSD - been on trend lower since mid July - 1.0625+ and few things could change. AUUSD been trying to form a base too latel 0.6300-.64 area, China news may well help a squeeze higher too
SPX500
WTI crude
