The new quarterly JPMcollar is 'short 3410SPXput, and long 4'050/4500 SPX500 call spread >>> This collar while not intended to be directional (it's a hedge vs ETF's etc)... is not particularly bullish at all... with an expected upside cap of 4500 SPX by EOY... that is not even making it back to the high of year...
Week ahead : no U.S government shut-down, we get to all get exited about it all again in 45 days...UAM strike is giving ideas to others : More than 75,00 union healthcare workers at Kaiser Permanente say they will strike on Wednesday if a new contract is not reached. The existing contract expired on Saturday. The union says if the strike happens, it will be the largest strike of healthcare workers in U.S. history, with picket lines in California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Virginia and Washington D.C. >> risk is there will be more of them, once some get big pay rise, others will fenzy theri chances... >>< NFP on Friday, Lagarde, Powell, RBA, RBNZ meetings and we go into Q4 with earning season upon us, will AI confirm ? will bond yields, inflation worry investors on those hefty valuations ? >>> big profit growth priced/expected for megacaps, but with higher yields, risk of further discount to be priced in
Last Friday : 12-month core PCE inflation declined across all three buckets in August (goods, housing, non-housing services), but most notably in goods / Thread
MS : The technicals and breadth (e.g., equal versus cap weight performance) for Consumer Discretionary stocks look particularly challenged. We believe this price action reflects slower consumer spending trends, student loan payments resuming, rising delinquencies in certain household cohorts, higher gas prices, and weakening data in the housing sector. Our economists, who wisely avoided making the recession call earlier this year, see a weakening consumer spending backdrop. They forecast negative real PCE growth in 4Q and a muted recovery thereafter. While travel & leisure has been a bright spot for consumption, that dynamic may now be changing, according to our survey work
B of A: “.. 520 central bank rate hikes past 24 months likely ain’t finished breaking stuff .. stay bearish/defensive & sell the last hike.” [Hartnett]
FDIC quarterly banking report on bank losses for 3Q due in around 55 days (so by end Nov), unrealized HTM+AFS losses will be pretty ugly >>> U.S. Banks are facing roughly $600 billion of unrealized losses which accounts for roughly 25% of total banking capital, near the highest levels in history
Fed’s Williams says interest rates ‘at, or near peak.’ But they won’t be coming down soon >>> The first FED cut is currently priced for August 2024 (top panel), or 337 days away/Thread
-And finally, you don't often see those kind of news : “A female sea lion, known as Sally, escaped from her enclosure at the Central Park Zoo briefly on Friday, swimming out of the pool where she is kept when the heavy rains lashing New York City flooded the zoo grounds.”
Equity markets look to be opening up slightly, by about 0.5%
Fed’s Williams says interest rates ‘at, or near peak.’ But they won’t be coming down soon. (msn.com)
Artificial intelligence technology behind ChatGPT was built in Iowa — with a lot of water (cnbc.com)
Top financial regulator seeks global clampdown on hedge fund borrowing | Financial Times (ft.com) should have thought about that a LONG time ago..
have a great start to the week
Team PVM