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That EU / US 'deal', or call it framework agreement, will cost VdL her job , it's an absolute terrible deal ( 15% tarriffs are paid by U.S consumers. .), as mentioned yesterday it's just 'Pie in the sky', Great headline for Trump .. >>> It’s a ‘pledge’ with no legally binding enforceable mechanism, even on energy there is NO way EU can get even close to 600bn , anyway they already arew buying some LNG.., make what u wish of it - yesterdays price action was ''buy runour and sell the fact'' >> totally overhyped, U.S chose a tax, RoW hasn't, Trump calls it a win..U.S pays it not RoW, and various investment are largely rubbish (including JPN ones..) Markets : EURO took a clear turn softer on this great VdL 'deal' - usd bid into month end, risk holding up well, DAX yesterday though didn't digest the deal too well (no drama though, yet anyway), Putin will be under pressure very shortly (new santions coming, PALL, Crude..), QRA details tomorrow morning pretty key for markets (UST curve etc and USD), Trump gives Putin 10 to 12 days to move towards Ukraine war ceasefire or face financial hits on Russia Von der Leyen (or liar?).. now says U.S. LNG is suddenly “more affordable and better” than cheaper gas from "neighbouring" pipelines ... This is a blatant lie China's latest AI model claims to be even cheaper to use than DeepSeek Republicans defended Powell during Trump's first term, not anymore Trump tells Starmer: Slash taxes and migration to beat Farage What Wall Street will be looking for in Meta's Q2 earnings Microsoft Q2 2025 earnings: All eyes on Azure and Copilot AI growth Make-or-break week for stocks: key questions investors are asking | Saxo Bank Switzerland NEXT V important, largely as expected, so far Jim Bianco on X: "I hope @dampedspring is wrong, but fear he might be correct. ---- The Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) comes on Wednesday morning (a few hours before the FOMC announcement/Powell presser), when Treasury gives us the mix of Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS they will issue next" / X Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates | U.S. Department of the Treasury Trump gives Putin 10 to 12 days to move towards Ukraine war ceasefire or face financial hits on Russia Steve Rosenberg on X: "Judging from today's Russian papers it doesn’t sound like Donald Trump’s reduced deadline will persuade Moscow to end the war in Ukraine: “The ultimatum was not taken seriously. Not 50 days, not 10-12 days.” “Moscow has no intention of caving to pressure.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/gTUKG0hMbq " / X Trump: Global baseline tariff will likely be 15% to 20% EU-US trade deal: The biggest losers and (a few) winners – POLITICO EU admits it can’t guarantee $600B promise to Trump – POLITICO Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is beyond parody: https://t.co/iIwZeq91S0 VDL says that US LNG gas is "more affordable and better" than Russian gas in order to justify the unequal treaty she just signed Europe for, in which - among other concessions - she commits to buy $750 billion of US LNG over the" / X Exclusive: Taiwan's Lai set to push back U.S. stopover as U.S.-China trade talks continue, sources say | Reuters Rachel Reeves warned by Bank of England over financial deregulation as debt interest hits £16.4bn China's latest AI model claims to be even cheaper to use than DeepSeek Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 This very good FT article on China's inability stop expanding its already-excess reliance on manufacturing makes what I think are two especially important points. https://t.co/ztFxDRO5oM via @ft" / X GOP firewall protecting Powell from Trump is weakening Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, the Fed: The stock market this week UBS in Dollar-Struki-Tornado: Schuld-Eingeständnis – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets : The Donald is playing golf in Scotland and doing trade deals at the same time, only he can. ...lots of nice numbers but little in hard fact..90 days TACO with China (what else..), EU tariffs deals 15% tax (plenty of disagreement within EU on this already..)) >>> overall USD squeezing higher into month-end possibly, bonds steady, risk intially always loves the sound of 'trade deal' headlines and TACO action (and very littel substance tbh.. in EU deal..) China and US officials meet in Stockholm to extend a tariff truce beyond the mid-August deadline. The US has frozen restrictions on technology exports, such as the Nvidia H20 chip to China to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing sources say. Keir Starmer and Donald Trump will hold trade discussions in Scotland EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months, the South China Morning Post reported, citing unnamed sources Japan’s PM Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election debacle Russell Vought, Donald Trump’s budget chief, raised the pressure on Jay Powell on Sunday ahead of the Fed meeting this week demanding ‘dramatically lower’ interest rates (FT) Boeing union workers rejected a contract offer that would have boosted their wages by 20% over four years (BBG) Trump to meet Starmer in Ayrshire after agreeing US-EU trade deal - BBC News EU-US tariffs: five key takeaways from the trade deal | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Exclusive | China, US to extend tariff pause at Sweden talks by another 90 days: sources | South China Morning Post EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional | Reuters Trump pulling U.S. out of UNESCO, the U.N. scientific and cultural agency Musk says Tesla, Samsung sign $16.5 billion chip supply deal | Reuters Japan’s PM Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election debacle The rightwing media stoking culture wars in Germany Boeing's contract offer rejected by union members UN warns of 'make or break' days ahead for aid as Israel resumes military pause in parts of Gaza - follow live - BBC News Thailand-Cambodia border: Thailand warns clashes could 'move towards war' - BBC News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin cancels navy celebration parades as Kyiv strikes near St Petersburg

Markets : new highs still, low vol squeeze up still, though consumers are starting to pull back on discretionary service spending names , fun fact : the S&P500 is down 4% this year in EURO's, Trump suddenly says it's not necessary to fire Powell, but pressed Jerome to cut during 'tense' FED visit (embarrassing TVee show)..ECB on pause, rates steady, ever so slightly 'hawkish' (less easing priced ahead), month-end flows slowly taking over, watch out for a few 'owned' positions going into it Bessent : The Fed is losing $100 billion a year. Now, it is blowing even more taxpayer money on out-of-control building renovations. Time for an internal review Thailand launches airstrikes on Cambodian military targets as deadly border dispute escalates US ‘strongly rejects’ French plan to recognise Palestine, Saudis hail ‘historic decision’ Mike Johnson says he’s has a “concern” the Epstein files were “doctored” under the Biden administration. They know what’s coming and they’re scrambling to spin it U.S Initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week/running below their year-earlier level. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago The U.S. has collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has largely shouldered the bill rather than consumers or foreign suppliers (WSJ) Demographic / China Eco - Chinese kindergartens in crisis as enrolments plunge 25% in 4 years - Demographic decline hits vast education system as drop-off in births leads to school closures-FT Boom fades for US clean energy as Trump guts subsidies U.S Japan trade deal hinges on fund that remains a puzzle.. #TSLA Tesla dumped 75% of its bitcoin at one of the worst times, losing out on billions Puma shares dive after warning of full year loss, someone should be fired for not hedging its FX exposure.. ECB hits pause button: Here’s why Lagarde isn’t rushing things Trump tours Federal Reserve, confronts confused Powell about renovation price tag | Watch This was like a Monty Python sketch.. :-) EU-China summit: Xi courts EU while Brussels demands trade rebalance China’s Local Gov’t Debt Faces Test Over Next Five Years, Economist Says Japan says US investment profits in trade deal to be shared by contributions Trump visits Fed headquarters, says he will not fire Powell French plan to recognise Palestinian state draws fire from Israel, US Beyond digital: how AI is restoring the human touch in Portuguese banking - Euromoney Boom fades for US clean energy as Trump guts subsidies | Reuters Tesla dumped 75% of its bitcoin at one of the worst times Puma shares dive after warning of full year loss | Reuters Nvidia AI chips: repair demand booms in China for banned products  | Reuters Live updates: Thailand-Cambodia border clashes, Thai F-16 fighter jets deployed against Cambodian military targets | CNN Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery fire as fighting rages for second day | Reuters Jeremy Corbyn confirms launch of new political party No real set-up, yet anyway NHS apologises as five-day doctor's strike begins

Markets :  U.S  admin heads to the FED today, could be fun.  U . S House  Speaker Johnson said that he legal authority around firing the Fed chief is unclear. I am open to amending the Federal Reserve Act, but it depends on details >>> echoing Trump now, FED 'take over' gathering pace, congress modifying the FED act is a nuclear option #USD #GOLD, and Lutnick added.. Fed Chair Powell should resign or be replaced   >>> clearly a whole lot gong on behind the scenes, politics, Epstein files cover-up, clearly the current gang wants to bring the FED and US Treasury together, with stable coins in mind in a new world... (UST demand..) etc... so only folks who think like Bessent will come in, the others will be pushed out.. (rightly or wrongly, we'll find out in a few years..), why is #PLTR on a 600 P/E ?.. Tulsi Gabbard has officially referred former President Obama to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, crickey US President Donald Trump suggested that he would not go below 15% as he sets "reciprocal" tariff rates. Trump said "we'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%" Adjusted using ISM methodology, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 46.4 in July (suggests contraction for ISM Manufacturing) T he Tesla Diner opened on July 21 in Hollywood, might save them, from ugly earnings! Botswana pushes for controlling stake in De Beers #HYG   $24B+ in junk bond supply this month, highest since july since 2021 Subprime auto delinquencies have now hit 2009 levels, a 15-year high / Fitch Ratings Tulsi Gabbard alleges Obama 'manufactured' intel on Russian plot in 2016 polls, but critics question her report – Firstpost US Congress headed for early shutdown as Republicans avoid Jeffrey Epstein vote EU's von der Leyen says China ties are at 'inflection point' at tense summit | Reuters Stablecoins Are Enhancing Cross-Border Payments In The Digital Economy : Grayscale Research | Crowdfund Insider What is the effect on the Las Vegas economy as tourism keep declining? Here's what we found out Tesla Ea nostalgia, and we'd go back. Tesla Earnings: Affordable Vehicle to Enter Production by End of Year as Robotaxi Testing Underway | Morningstar We visited the first Tesla Diner. It was surreal and heavy on nostalgia, and we'd go back. Google beats on Q2 earnings, raises capex expeditures Tom Hayes: Court overturns ex-Citi trader criminal conviction for interest rate rigging | CNN Business   About time! why did it take 10years...!!! QRCS, Qatar embassy in Damascus deploy food aid to southern Syria - Gulf Times LIVE: Hamas submits Gaza truce response as Israel continues deadly assault | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Russia-Ukraine war: Istanbul talks fail to go beyond prisoner swap, eyes on summit proposal – Firstpost France's new prison regime for drug kingpins shines the spotlight on a possible successor to Macron

Markets : U.S announced a deal with Japan, 15% tariffs and few exceptions higher (ALU), that's less than the 25% expected, Nikkei joins the fun higher, JGB's chinned though (long-end 7bps higher), 19% tariffs with Philippines (instead of 20%, big win..) >>> USD weakening again, metals powering through resistance higher #GOLD #SILVER #XPT #PALL .. risk holding up very well overall, TSLA earnings tonight then GOOG, first of the #MAG7 this week, let' see how this goes.. few clients buying downside spreads #SPX and #QQQ, never a bad time to buy hedges when vols/VIX are low >>> 62% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200 dma, the most since Jan >>> thanks to TGA run down and FED pumping, M2 surging etc.. BoJ's Uchida: Fiscal expansion may support the economy Trump "Former President Obama is guilty of treason." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is “only going to be there a short while,” President Donald Trump says at an event with GOP lawmakers. Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May and his separate term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028 Elon Musk asks if you want burgers and fries with your Tesla UK-EU : The youth mobility scheme is just the start of a Brexit reversal How Israel Appears to Be Gambling With the Trump Administration’s Patience ''  tariffs haven't affected the stock market more is that they primarily affect the "old economy". GM has $187B in sales but a market cap of just $50B, while Nvidia has $135B in sales and a market cap of $4.1 trillion. GM is much more exposed to tariffs than Nvidia.'' >>> read that again At least three Trump advisers set to visit Fed on Thursday US-Philippines trade talks yield modest tariff shift after Trump-Marcos meeting | Reuters US andJapan trade deal: Here are the 5 key takeaways  U.S.-China trade deal deadline could be extended, Scott Bessent says Trump Epstein Lawsuit: Why Wall Street Journal Defamation Case Could Backfire In Discovery Senate Dems preserve shutdown leverage over Trump, GOP Politically bruised, Japan’s Ishiba to resign as PM next month over defeat in Senate vote – Firstpost Elon Musk's Tesla diner opens for food and EV charging GM says Trump tariffs cost $1.1 billion in Q2 with more pain ahead How Long Can Israel Keep Frustrating the U.S.? | TIME How Canadian boycotts are impacting the U.S. The youth mobility scheme is just the start of a Brexit reversal | The Spectator Good Rachel Reeves faces some tough fiscal choices France moves notorious drug traffickers to supermax prison in major crackdown General Motors absorbs $1.1 billion in tariff costs as profit tops estimates US tariffs help push Jeep owner Stellantis into massive loss - The Economic Times Coca-Cola plans cane-sugar Coke as higher prices boost profits | Reuters Senedd's Laura Anne Jones defects from Conservatives to Reform UBS-Derivate-Skandal: Spuren ins Tradinghaus Opfikon – Inside Paradeplatz

Something cooking at the FED ....!?>>> Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for a review of ‘the entire' Federal Reserve , Threats to the Fed go beyond firing Powell, Curtis Yarvin’s ideas are going ever more mainstream in Trump’s Washington — and investors should be worried AND The potential successor to Jerome Powell discusses why she thinks the Fed is too powerful, why her stance on gold is not a ‘crank’ position, and why she feels events have vindicated her and president Trump on the need for rate cuts, '' We need to open up the Fed and move to a different construct'', says Judy Shelton >>> changes ahead ? possibly, classic populist stuff, but beware ! as this would be BIG obviously Bessent : What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful... All of these Ph.D.s over there, I don't know what they do... EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst, Bessent: Imposing Aug. 1 tariffs ‘will put more pressure’ on trade partners for deals Markets : USD weakened on the above FED chatters, GOLD & XAG up too, Equity markets steady/ever so slightly lower, been dragged higher as the current macro picture continues to push capital out the risk curve, liquidity plenty, no apparent credit risk (HYG) etc...and low vols.. all of which can 'unlock' if-when background picture changes >> CLEARLY if FED mandata changes, let along if Powell has to go early or is 'shadowed' early, markets WILL move hard About those talks... Iran Foreign Ministry: No plans for talks with the US at the moment, We are to discuss nuclear issue with Russia, China Tuesday UK : Government to conduct early review into state pension age U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: “We urge Europe to adopt our approach on Russian oil tariffs.” He said 80 to 90 senators back a sanctions bill targeting Russia. “Any country buying sanctioned Russian oil could face secondary tariffs of up to 100%.” Former Swiss Private Banker Proposes Bold UBS Breakup JPMorgan explores lending against clients’ cryptocurrency - Bank’s chief Jamie Dimon once branded bitcoin a ‘fraud’ but he has now moderated his tone China’s mega dam unleashes ‘flurry’ of bullish iron ore trades Threats to the Fed go beyond firing Powell His thoughts might make Fed-watchers blanch. The issue is not just with President Donald Trump’s ever-escalating threats to fire Fed chair Jay Powell; Yarvin also wants Trump to smash the Fed’s independence by putting it under the sway of the Treasury, so it can restructure America’s $37tn debt and “unplug” its finance from the rest of the world. “My audacious plan is to merge the Fed and Treasury and revalue assets,” he explained. “It is very incorrect to regard Treasury obligations as debt — they are restricted stock. #gold EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst - when US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit most EU exports with 30% tariffs. The EU is prepared to stomach an unbalanced agreement that favors the US, but is also stepping up preparations to retaliate in a scenario where there is no agreement. The US is pushing for a near-universal tariff on EU goods higher than 10%, with limited exemptions, while the EU is seeking wider exemptions and looking to shield the bloc from future sectoral tariffs Judy Shelton on gold, tariffs and where the Fed went wrong - Central Banking We need to open up the Fed and move to a different construct, says Judy Shelton | Watch Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for a review of ‘the entire’ Federal Reserve – NBC New York Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "We've endured decades of unfair trade. Thanks to @POTUS and his ability to create maximum leverage, that era is over. This administration is prioritizing the quality of these deals, not how fast they're made. https://t.co/lAvnPOlAch " / X Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "In a speech at the Federal Reserve Capital Conference, I explained how “regulation by reflex” doesn’t work—for banks or consumers. Rather than preempting crises, bank regulators all too often react to them after the fact. They play the role of a hazmat cleanup team instead of" / X Trump's Aug. 1 tariffs will pressure trade partners: Bessent BHP ASX: Iron ore price hits four-month high as China’s mega dam in Tibet boosts steel demand Donald Trump Is Trapped | The New Republic Government to conduct early review into state pension age | Politics News | Sky News Trump admin live updates: Trump says US will attack Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary' - ABC News Iranian foreign minister says Iran cannot give up on nuclear enrichment | Reuters Fact-checking claims that France's working conditions are among worst in Europe Greece passes North Africa asylum ban amid rights groups’ opposition Greece...or EU policy ?.. Former Swiss Private Banker Proposes Bold UBS Breakup BYD criticizes UK's EV policy as 'stupid' - Breaking The News YouTube wipes out propaganda channels linked to China, Russia, others Porsche CEO Says Industry Challenges 'Hitting Us Hard,' Worse Than Other Automakers: Report Nvidia's China return buys time for Beijing to boost its chip drive OpenAI and SoftBank Group Partner to Develop and Market Advanced Enterprise AI | SoftBank Group Corp.

1st Aug hard deadline or TACO action again.. Markets : Trump went on to say that he didn't need Bessent to know about Powell risk (Thread below), one of his madest intervention yet?, U.S CPI was slightly softer (yet inflation expectations rose notably last week), Europe Prepares for a U.S. Trade Fight - the European Union still wants a deal, but with U.S. demands growing, the bloc is getting ready to push back , JPN ruling coalition lost control of upper house too>> busy earnings week ( #GOOD and #TSLA focus in majors), car companies globally really struggling, Hackers exploited flaw in Microsoft server software , still huge RU air-drone strikes on UKR + some reports of , Powell speaks tomorrow BoA:  Despite five consecutive downside surprises in the core CPI, y/y core PCE inflation could climb to 3% as early as July. In our view, a 3-handle would make it optically very challenging for the Fed to cut rates. BIS : AGENDA 2030 only happens in a CASHLESS economy, great...not... Trump is suing the Wall Street Journal over an Epstein report, seeking $10 billion in damages, that huge story will not go away.. U.S Manufacturing jobs have fallen from 43% of all private jobs in 1945 to just 9% today Central banks are increasingly buying gold from local mines as prices surge #XAUUSD Swatch may let you design your own MoonSwatch using artificial intelligence. Swatch 's artistic intelligence, named AI-DADA, will be used to design unique watches Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street. The veteran investor’s decision to ditch billions in banking stocks could be a canary in the coal mine #PLAT Valterra Platinum limited _ lower plat prod due to flooding as we said single source country risk 70% comes from S Africa Japan's Ishiba vows to stay despite suffering setback in elections #JPY Apple / EU Tech Regulation - UK government seeks way out of clash with US over Apple encryption - Officials fear technology deals with Washington could be impeded after Trump administration weighs in Iran has reached an agreement in principle to hold talks with the UK, France and Germany over its nuclear program, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Lutnick: August 1 is hard deadline Trump tariffs Microsoft Releases Urgent Patch for SharePoint RCE Flaw Exploited in Ongoing Cyber Attacks Porsche Plans More Cost Cuts To Counter Tariffs, China Slump - Bloomberg Morning Brew July 21 2025 | Saxo Bank Switzerland earnings and main economic data Trump Truth Social Posts On X on X: "The Wall Street Journal ran a typically untruthful story today by saying that Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, explained to me that firing Jerome “Too Late” Powell, the Worst Federal Reserve Chairman in History, would be bad for the Market. Nobody had to explain that to" / X Neil Sethi on X: "BoA: Despite five consecutive downside surprises in the core CPI, y/y core PCE inflation could climb to 3% as early as July. In our view, a 3-handle would make it optically very challenging for the Fed to cut rates. Moreover, we got the first clear indication of tariff https://t.co/OGrwwchfns " / X Swatch May Let You Design Your Own MoonSwatch Using Artificial Intelligence Albert Manifold appointed BP p.l.c. chair | News and insights | Home >>> M&A target ? Apple vs. EU: Tech Giant Disputes $580M Fine Over App Store Rules FBI agents told to flag Jeffrey Epstein records about Trump: Durbin How Huawei ascended from telecoms to become China's 'jack of all trades' AI leader Japan's Ishiba Vows To Stay Despite Suffering Setback In Elections Iran, E3 countries agree to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Istanbul VALTERRA PLATINUM LIMITED – Production Report For The Second Quarter Ending 30 June 2025 - Sens - Moneyweb Warren Buffett has set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street EU lowers price cap for Russian crude under new sanctions package Again... Central banks are buying gold from local mines amid record prices Pentagon to become rare-earth mining company's largest stockholder - Defense One Chevron defeats Exxon in dispute over Guyana oil assets, clearing path for Hess acquisition Paul Carlier on X: "Former HSBC Head of FX, Mark Johnson, has his 2017 conviction quashed! (See Andy Verity report on this below this post) 8 years too late and 8 years after I told everyone I could get to listen that this prosecution was a sham and that Mark and Stuart Scott had been served up by" / X Resist CBDC on X: "🚨AGENDA 2030 only happens in a CASHLESS economy. “In cash we don't know who is using a $100 bill today … key difference with CBDC is the Central Bank will have absolute control ... and the technology to enforce that." ~ Augustin Carstens BIS https://t.co/fUkSo5SIbH " / X

How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell Some Republicans have laid the groundwork to oust the central-bank chief, but the Treasury secretary cited practical obstacles and economic hazards >>>> quiet start to the week by the looks ! Exclusive: Kevin Hassett Emerges as Serious Contender for Fed Chair Exclusive | How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell - WSJ Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "“Short US dollar” is the most crowded trade for the 1st time in FMS history https://t.co/v5m8zCuMVZ " / X

Crypto.......no gold looking coins there, just coding Markets : Trump plans to open ($9trn worth of) 401(k) and IRA markets to crypto, FED's Waller talking cuts in Sep, FED's Warsh touts 'regime change'.., China threatens to block Panama canal, 16-17year olds get to vote in UK elections, everyone trading 0DTE momentum !!, Trump health and erratic stuff is getting out of control, there is more behind the Epstein files that's for sure, THE ROBOTS AREN’T COMING...they are already here (THREAD) >>> overall equity markets been 'FOMO'ing' in low vols, and 0DTE daily momentum, NVDA, drones & satellites stuff, techs melting up, precious metals doing very nicely too..'risk' almost look to good to be real ! Kevin Warsh touts ‘regime change’ at Fed and calls for partnership with Treasury, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness. Fed's Waller believes it makes sense to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points , saying "the risk of a weaker jobs market is greater and sufficient" to do so. WSJ alleges Trump wrote a bawdy letter to Epstein in 2003. He called it “fake news” and says he will sue - shifting the narrative back in his favour with MAGA(?); as Trump told AG Bondi to allow the Epstein Grand Jury files to be unsealed Friday, subject to court approval Powell : the actual timing of the new FED chairman is less important than the overall influence he has on the entire committee, which will drive USD lower, UST curve will steepen/go positive and inflation will be very stubborn around 3%, its not all bad for equities, we continue to focus on quality/value/solid dividends for our clients >>> It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor/THREAD Germany and the UK sign first treaty since World War Two #XAUUSD : Central Banks turn to local Mines for Gold as prices surge #XPTUSD #PALL breaking up again, XAGUSD set for $40-50 new range soon #SILJ up and away long-term charts required.. Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries, sources say Denmark’s Minister for Economic Affairs Stephanie Lose says the EU remains constructive in the trade talks but will be firm that it is ready to defend its own interests Kevin Warsh touts 'regime change' at Fed and calls for partnership with Treasury Fed Chair Powell responds to White House questions about HQ renovation Fed's Waller wants July interest rate cut amid rising growth, job market risks | Reuters E-gates, train links, and school visits included in new UK-Germany treaty - BBC News Citigroup backs silver to soar just as gold’s rally loses steam - The Business Times Wall Street backs Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Trump fight Central Banks Buy Local Gold as Prices Soar Exclusive: Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries, sources say | Reuters Trump plans to open 401(k) and IRA markets to crypto US House passes three key crypto bills; market reaction muted as Bitcoin dips - CoinJournal On The Fast Track Towards a Government Shutdown China threatens to block Panama ports deal unless its shipping giant gets stake, WSJ reports | The Straits Times Nick Timiraos on X: "It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor." / X Trump supporters burn Maga hats after he dismisses Epstein files furor as ‘hoax’ | Jeffrey Epstein | The Guardian Trump sent Jeffrey Epstein ‘bawdy’ 50th birthday letter: WSJ – NBC New York Why is Trump fighting with MAGA over Epstein - and what has the president said about the paedophile? | US News | Sky News Mario Nawfal on X: "THE ROBOTS AREN’T COMING... THEY’RE HERE Amazon? Flexing with 750,000 robots that outpace humans every time. In China, robots are pumping gas. In kitchens, robot chefs are cooking meals from 5 million recipes like it's nothing. Meanwhile, Boston Dynamics built camera bots https://t.co/nsQNpfk5Nb " / X Syria’s Druze find bodies in the streets while searching for loved ones

France flirts with cutting two public holidays to save money, budget cuts, healthcare cuts, ''everyone has to chip in' time, big cuts, no doubt plenty of strikes coming, won't be easy to get through, but no choice there.. Markets : Trump floats the idea, then decided he wasn't going to fire Powell, for now anyway, nice intraday vol, then, as discussed last week, this is the real risk... Market watchers warn Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on the EU, and letters going out to 150 countries wit tariffs between 10 and 15%, Japan's June trade surplus plummets, exports contract again amid U.S. tariffs and weaker Oz employment data, Syria situation worrying, SPX down 1pct and back to where it was on 'Trump/Powell', same for USDollar, precious metals similar price action, 30's UST 5.04%, highest level in 18years or something, no-one seems to be worried about it right now though Trump : ''he is a terrible Fed chair, I was surprised Powell was appointed, frankly I was'.. couldn't make this up >> it's Trump who appointed Powell.. When he first run for office, he called employment data fake, when he was in place, he called it his economic success, Janet Yellen was slammed for keeping rates to low for Obama, not he wants to fire Powell for not doing the exact same, he promised to expose Epstein's client list, now he claims the whole thing is a hoax..all to distract from the great achievement of achieveing....no trade deal in 100days..but it's coming Israel stirs pot in S. Syria as casualties rise, cease-fire collapses EU Budget - Von der Leyen botches €2tn EU budget proposal with chaotic infighting - Centralised process has compromised launch of commission president’s spending plan Some big US banks plan to launch stablecoins, expecting crypto-friendly regulations >>> they need those stable coins soonest as they can to create demand for UST's.. France's 2026 budget plan includes €5 billion in healthcare cuts France flirts with cutting two public holidays to save money France: Opposition slams PM Bayrou’s budget cut plan - France 24 Trump denies that he plans to fire Powell: 'Highly unlikely' Trump says US will stick to 25% tariff on Japan, may have deal with India soon Traders boost bets on Fed rate cuts Fed’s Williams says tariffs are pushing up inflation, and he expects even higher prices in coming months Much weaker data there #AUD Unemployment rate rises to 4.3% | Australian Bureau of Statistics Japan's June trade surplus plummets, exports contract again amid U.S. tariffs TACO trade: Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on EU Some big US banks plan to launch stablecoins, expecting crypto-friendly regulations | Reuters Israel stirs pot in S. Syria as casualties rise, cease-fire collapses | Daily Sabah US agreed on 'specific steps' to bring an end to Syria clashes, top US diplomat says Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says Trump can succeed with Putin where Biden failed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y7zqdwzqyo Julian Smith says David Cameron was 'cavalier' in handling of Brexit Renault shares fall after French carmaker lowers 2025 guidance A ‘Himalayan tsunami’ has just devastated Nepal. It should be a wake-up call | The Independent Goldman Sachs posts Q2 earnings beat as stock trading surges TSMC Q2 profit surges 60%, reaches historic high | Reuters

Markets : Odds of a September rate cut have fallen to a coin flip, as inflation picked up a little to 2.7%m (tariffs...lead to...''broad based increases, affecting various imports..'') , UST 30y hits 5% again, JGB's long-end hit highest yield levels for 15y or so >>> end of yield suppression, this is like a referendum on the US's fiscal position (same for France, Japan etc) debt load beginning to matter, everywhere.. data centers in space (I kid you not..), earnings off to a soft ish pace, inflation is broadly higher, and equity valuations are on highs (mostly helped by NVDA..), plenty of reasons to get a correction from here, the FOMO mood can quickly turn pretty slow summer volumes.. + BoA's FM survey shows lowest cash allocation in 12years... and of course Trump keeps having a go at Powell, FED's independence is so key and should not be messed with, in a world where Mr President is blowing up debt levels... The US is urging the EU to fully adopt Washington’s more hawkish policy on China , a senior EU official said on Monday, amid growing speculation that the bloc could impose tougher measures on Beijing in order to clinch a trade deal with the US Fund managers' cash allocation has dropped to 3.9%, the second-lowest in 12 years, according to a BofA survey of 175 participants with $434 billion in assets Chip giant ASML smashes expectations on second-quarter net bookings Fed might need to hold rates steady ‘for quite some time,’ Logan says France's Bayrou bets big on austerity with spending freeze and holiday cuts What is happening in Japan? Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20% Goldman Sachs economists estimate that U.S. consumers will end up paying 70% of tariffs’ direct costs "Their cost, their quality is far superior to anything in the West." Ford Motors CEO admits China won the car industry Trump suggests Fed renovations could be fireable offense for Powell | CNN Business Trump plans pharma tariffs by July-end, semiconductors next in line - World News | The Financial Express US wants EU to ‘follow us 100%’ on China, says Brussels - Euractiv JPMorgan Chase earnings suggest U.S. economy is still humming Why Wells Fargo (WFC) Shares Are Falling Today Earnings live: Second quarter earnings season kicks off with big banks leading the way Short-term borrowing a concern though, possibly a real concern.. The Coastal Journal on X: "Citigroup’s $C liquidity just cracked Short-term borrowings exploded +44% YoY to $55.6B Repo liabilities still sky-high at $347.9B. That’s nearly $400B in fragile, short-term funding. This isn’t stable banking—it’s a ⚠️" / X Fed might need to hold rates steady ‘for quite some time,’ Logan says ASML Q2 2025 earnings report The next frontier in real estate: Data centers on the moon and space-support infrastructure – NBC New York Bayrou bets big on austerity with spending freeze and holiday cuts - Euractiv U.S. Inflation Picks Up to 2.7% in June as Tariffs Start to Push Up Prices - WSJ Greater Manchester 'at forefront of EV revolution' after Japanese firm creates 200 jobs with £100m investment - Manchester Evening News Shocking.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=HGyaIDvPggfQ6jU&v=Zdc6MHlTOTQ&feature=youtu.be This News Agents video about a £7 bio cover-up is absolutely brilliant, scary, fascinating and infuriating The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Global fund managers are rushing into equities at a record pace: Fund managers' cash allocation has dropped to 3.9%, the second-lowest in 12 years, according to a BofA survey of 175 participants with $434 billion in assets. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline since https://t.co/Wht22MYy2x " / X

Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties, Macron blames Brexit for rise in migrant crossings as Starmer hails ‘breakthrough’ small boats deal Markets : S&P 500: All-time high, NASDAQ: All-time high, BTC: All-time high, GOLD: All-time high, HOME PRICES: All-time high, and Mr Market has 3x Fed cuts priced in for 2025 and couple more next year. Trump goes after Canada & EU on tariffs again (trying to force a trade deal ?..), he's also using presidential power to send an big additional arms package to UKR, Market complacency evolved from "TACO" and "nothing ever happens" to now "everything is priced in" (like 50% tariffs and letters to EU/Canada), risk of correction coming (should be welcome in a rather too buoyant market..), XAGUD jumps to highest prices in 14years, on its way to +$40 this summer, Palladium reacting to Russia sanction risk.. #PALL Trump said he's disappointed in Russia and will make a big announcement on Monday Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies and leverage. Charlie Munger Governor Waller spoke on balance sheet policy . He indicated that he sees $2.7tn (9% of GDP) as a rough benchmark for “ample” reserves (down to $5.8 trn). This estimate was based off of 2019 market stress, where Waller noted reserve scarcity appeared to emerge suddenly when reserves fell below 8% of GDP St Louis Fed president Musalem remained hawkish , noting upside inflation risks and saying it would take time to determine the price impact from tariffs UK-France-EU #Brexit ''When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight'' Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees OSINTdefender on X: "U.S. President Donald J. Trump, for the first time since entering office, is reportedly preparing to use presidential power to send an additional arms package, including “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missiles and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) Munitions, to Ukraine. This https://t.co/AVK7f43osq " / X Trump puts 35% tariff on Canada, eyes 15%-20% tariffs for others | Reuters Fed Governor Waller favors cutting interest rates in July and continued shrinking of balance sheet Musalem says too soon to know if tariff inflation will be temporary, reinforcing Fed divide Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties Alex Taylor on X: ""When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight." And that's Sir Alex Younger, the longest serving head of MI6 @BBCNewsnight https://t.co/P3ycOJq4id " / X BBC Newsnight on X: "“It's absolutely obvious to me that people should have a digital identity... Let's stop shouting at the French. A lot of this is on us.” Ex-MI6 boss, Sir Alex Younger, backs calls for digital ID cards and adds that they could help deter small boat crossings. #Newsnight https://t.co/WdpLVrbjTP " / X In Depth: The Scam That Turned China’s Housing Slump Into a Cash Machine - Caixin Global BNY Mellon will have custody of Ripple's new stablecoin Bitcoin Jumps to Record on Institutional Investor Demand Nvidia and Bitcoin dodge Trump's tech tariff effects Emmanuel Macron Criticises Brexit Stronger With EU | HuffPost UK Politics Microsoft Outlook hit with hours-long outage