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WTI $100 still & SPX500 on all time highs / Semis on a 60x PE / FOMC, ECB and BoE meetings up next, BoJ 'as expected'

  • sc0172
  • 6 hours ago
  • 3 min read

  • Iran update : The White House is weighing Iran’s latest proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the war. The WSJ reported that Donald Trump and his advisers were wary of Tehran’s offer, particularly regarding the country’s nuclear program, Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war (NYT and WSJ), Iran's latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved, US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz

  • Markets : South Korea surpassed the UK to become the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, small miss for Novartis, BoJ 'expected hawkish hold', government bond yields are set to stay higher for longer (Blackrock), GS warns on software stocks again, U.S. Farm bankruptcies surge +46% as fertilizer costs squeeze Farmers, Semiconductor Stocks are now trading at a 60x PE, the richest valuation since the Dot Com Bubble (after the best month in 25years.. (..flow of momentum funds is insanely fast!..but once the hyperscalers throw in the towel on CapEx...it's over again).. >> hawkish FOMC; ECB, BoE expected (hikes priced!), Bank of England could surprise given split vote, markets on all time highs and crude is still $100... PM's softer (new opportunity to long coming), USD not doing much, CROSJPY's on highs with higher yields overall and no BoJ surprise.. (hike maybe in June... expected)

  • Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney today: “Many of our former strengths, built on our close ties to the US, have become weaknesses. The US has changed.” “We’re deepening our partnerships with the EU, the Nordic countries, and Australia.”

  • NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations/thread



Goldman Sachs saying there is another cliff for software stocks to fall off of. From today: "We expect the debate around AI disruption, and therefore uncertainty about many companies' terminal value, will persist for at least several quarters. The threat of disruption will likely represent a persistent overhang until the later stages of AI adoption. In the meantime, disproving this disruption narrative is challenging. For investors to have confidence in the long-term impact of AI, it will require more evidence of where AI is impacting earnings, which could take several quarters if not years."































 
 
 

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