Physical oil market premia over : plenty of oil / NIKKEI, KSE, PM's, risk in general breaking up, USD under pressure

sc0172
May 7
3 min read

Iran updates : ...UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman denied Trump's access to Airspace/bases for the Project Freedom... that's WHY he TACO'ed.. (lost credibility long ago..), Trump is desperate to wrap up a deal with Iran BEFORE is visit to Beijing on 14-15 Mai, ongoing war puts Trump in a constrained position with Xi..., Iran, U.S. move closer on proposal to restart talks, mediators (China basically..) push a short-term memo to guide monthlong talks amid disputes over enrichment and sanctions relief
Markets : Louis Gave's bull case on China (Podcast - fwiw couldn't agree more!), Apple now spends 10%+ of revenue on R&D for first time in 30 years, Tech rally hands hedge funds biggest gains since 2020, U.S earnings continue to push markets higher + hope for end of war (it's been a 'done' deal for a while, as discussed lately..), but it'll be a drag on things, might even be a buy the rumour & sell the fact...given valuations and general level of optimism, we shall see, for now 'mr market is loving it', Several whistleblowers say that Axios coordinated news with market insiders (surely not..!! this WILL be the largest trading scandal in history, they will make film of it..)
Crude update : The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil, and...war is over..
SEC moves to scrap quarterly reporting requirement! why not, easier to fraud then!
Norway approves the re-development of three North Sea oil-and-gas fields that were closed ~30 years ago
FT-There are grounds to suspect that Donald Trump is thinking of something bigger than self-adulation. The best way to perpetuate your name is to arrange for a successor with the same name
Putin’s Strongman Image Is Fading as Ukraine Brings War Home to Russia. The Russian president’s “Victory Day” cult has backfired as the conflict drags on longer than the Soviets’ battle against the Nazis. (WSJ)
SNB's Martin: SNB has greater willingness to intervene on FX... after BoJ/MOF action, SNB should/could well get more involved #CHFJPY lower