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Crude higher, ceasefire on 'life support' / Bessent on USDJPY / UK's Starmer in stormy waters / Aramco, GOLD, India..

  • sc0172
  • May 12
  • 4 min read

  • Iran updates : Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support', Oil climbed as Donald Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest peace offer, calling it a “piece of garbage” he “didn’t even finish reading.” Separately, the WSJ reported that the UAE had been secretly carrying out attacks on Iran

  • Markets : UK's Starmer in stormy waters #GBP #GILTS, Bessent vows 'constant and robust' US, Japan coordination on FX, he is in JPN now (and #USDJPY rallies back to the highs.. will have to walk the walk..or else..), BoJ minutes (debated need to raise rates soon..), Saudi Aramco warns fuel stocks heading for ‘critically low levels’, The White House said Trump will meet Xi Jinping in Beijing at 10:15 a.m. local time Thursday, The 40% bubble concentration rule just triggered for the first time since the dot-com crash (BoA chart available on request) >>> EU markets off a little on crude prices, UK markets struggling on Starmer's leadership likely challenge, markets may underestimate how long crude prices stay high for longer, FI lower, yields higher on higher crude prices (UK Gilts a little more than the rest of FI)

  • GOLD : In 1967, Indira Gandhi appealed to Indians: “Don’t buy Gold.”, what followed?..

  • Coming in other parts of the world ? A top Korean policymaker, presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom, said the nation should pay citizens a “dividend” using taxes on AI profits, the benchmark equity index Kospi fell as much as 5.1%

  • Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser: Energy supply shock is the largest ever experienced, ''If the current disruptions continue at this rate, market will lose around 100 million barrels of oil every week the Strait remains closed''

  • Goldman and BofA are the latest in a growing cohort of Wall Street banks pushing back their Fed rate-cut forecasts to at least the end of the year, citing strong jobs data and inflation concerns

  • What's going on? After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains


Warren Buffett the greatest investor in history just repeated himself. 1999: "Euphoria is the enemy" Walked away from the rally. Result: dot-com crash. Down 75% >>>> 2026: "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." $400B in cash. Zero purchases.





It’s always easier for MPs to pin the blame on the leader – or Trump, or the energy crisis and inflation, or two decades of neglect of UK infrastructure – than to look at themselves. The current bout of hysteria is just making things worse for Labour, whoever ends up in charge; I honestly don’t see what is supposed to change. This supposedly grand plan fronted by Catherine West and a few others looks, at best, badly thought through, when what’s really needed is a bit of calm with the election still a long way off and a new legislative programme coming.

On Europe, I agree his approach is pretty incoherent and the speech was a snooze; unless you’re willing to rethink the basic “red lines”, it all feels badly executed. MPs are there to govern, not to act like pundits whipping up a frenzy – but that’s very much the UK way, in most parties, more football-manager drama styled than serious politics, UK labor MP's more worried about their future re-election than the country.. (same goes for other parties btw..)


getting weaker, calling for a stop to the war, and help from Trump..





























 
 
 

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