China CPI -0.3%, Exp.-0.4% (YoY), and PPI -4.4%, Exp. -4.0% >>> it's allowed to wrtie deeeflation or China inflation 'deflated' ..(as China bans negative economic commentary, mentions of "Deflation") and China's major state-owned banks seen selling dollars to buy yuan in the onshore market, been going on for a while, little or no impact for now >>> >>> now, The consensus estimate for Thursday's U.S CPI report is 3.3%, up from 3.0% last month which was the lowest since March 2021 Italian, European banks >> EU classic : banks start to perform well, so they tax them, mind you banks had super easy access to liquidities/funding for 10+ years, thus taxpayer may well be intitled to some cashback Companies with good ESG scores pollute as much as low-rated rivals. The finding holds true even when researchers looked only at the environmental part of the metric Beyond Meat sales fall 30% in setback for vegan burgers. Firm once valued at $10bn blames ‘interest groups’ for spreading health concerns Fed's Harker: We will probably start cutting rates sometime next year, probably one of the most-dovish comments from any Fed member in over a year, meanwhile...US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index Q3: 4.12% (prev 3.87%) ..another hike and not cut if true.. BRICS summit, economic shift: Exploring a new currency and possible de-dollarization . While finding an alternative payments solution is fraught with challenges, bloc members nonetheless stay bullish to explore such a possibility MS : The Senior Loan Officer Survey results “support our team’s forecast that loan growth will be minimal through the rest of the year ..” FBI official who worked Trump-Russia probe, later accused of conspiring with Russia, to plead guilty " There's a massive amount of Treasuries entering the market over the next few months . An onslaught of issuance.... In the Repo market, this all points to one thing: Higher Repo rates. More Treasury supply in the market requires cash to fund it." - Curvature Brazil is hosting the Amazon nations in a bid to save the world's largest rainforest . President Lula seeks to follow through on his pledge to stop all deforestation in the Amazon by 2030 SF Fed research: "Banks that experienced larger market value losses on their securities during the monetary tightening cycle in 2022 extended relatively less credit to firms." New factories are been built across the U.S and economists are giving President Biden a sizable chunk of the credit thanks to recent laws encouraging new infrastructure, clean energy, and semiconductors Markets : EURJPY toppy still 157-158 area , GBPJPY 183 etc, other crosses similar picture, AUDJPY has the weak China story in there too though nice little bounce since yesterday, FXland not particularly exiting but watch out USDCNH 7.25+, EURUSD below 1.0900 etc Equity markets : relatively quiet on the surface (main indices), pretty volatile down below, this market doesn't 'pardon' anyone who's missing on earnings or lower guidance Bonds, all about supply this week (short-term test 100bn), and over next few weeks and months, with U.S CPI tomorrow key 'That's just bureaucracy': Inside Biden’s campaign to keep the factory boom going (yahoo.com) but more work to do on this front Elon Musk Says We Need Way More Electricity. Is He Right? - WSJ 'Unless legal barriers to new electricity infrastructure are resolved, America's plan to recharge manufacturing—to say nothing of the transport sector—may fall short.' BRICS summit, economic shift: Exploring a new currency and possible de-dollarization | Al Arabiya English >>> Dubai media is now reporting the BRICS summit as an "economic shift", but still not even a murmur from western media Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios (frbsf.org) As one would expect.. An ‘Oppenheimer Moment’ For The Progenitors Of AI - NOEMA (noemamag.com) Xcellent read - no matter which side of the fence you are on, investor or not, IMHO, AI is not going away, not a chance, au contraire, but revenue scheme, who wins economically speaking and so on, is tricky, and however long it takes, years perhaps... it's not instant mega winner like the lottery.. and anyway it's all about the data in reality. This German Unicorn Is Trying To Take On Google Translate And ChatGPT (forbes.com) Rihard Jarc on Twitter: "This one is a real treat. An exclusive interview with former decade long $GOOGL CEO Eric Schmidt on Generative AI: - Explains that the next scale goal is LLMs that will cost $1B to train (from $100M ones that we use today) and that we could be looking at $100B ones in the… https://t.co/T2kinswUmy" / X Companies with good ESG scores pollute as much as low-rated rivals | Financial Times (ft.com) Surprise surprise... Soaring sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro, widely used for weight loss, sends Eli Lilly to new heights (yahoo.com) Macron suffers new Africa setback with Niger coup (france24.com) Empire rising, falling, fighting each other, now China and Russia mostly involved in Africa (over the last 5-10years let's say) Beyond Meat sales fall 30% in setback for vegan burgers (thetimes.co.uk) A great fab, too expensive and bit too much salt for my liking.. and now with inflation and consumers tightening their belts..IMHO, if anyone doesn't want to eat meat, then don't WeWork warns it might go out of business in stunning fall | The Straits Times WeWork's peak private valuation was $47BN It went public in a SPAC merger with a $8BN valuation It now has a market cap of $400MM - truly amazing - WeWork bonds yield almost 90% >>> p.s. there are many great positive example out there too Wind turbine unit issues cost Siemens Energy $2.4bn (msn.com) Why does the Republic of Ireland have so much surplus cash? - BBC News no Brexit..? Charles McGonigal, Trump-Russia probe FBI official accused of conspiring with Russia to plead guilty - Washington Times Macquarie’s Bradley on Thames Water: ‘There’s nothing in our returns that I’m embarrassed about’ (infrastructureinvestor.com) ...really.. Chelsea investigated by Premier League for potential financial rule breaches during Abramovich era | UK News | Sky News Welcome to the Slow Boat from China (finews.asia) plenty of views out there that China is/will struggle with 'boring' growth for years to come, dealing with 'overbuild' of everything of the last 10y India is banning Chinese parts from its military drones (qz.com) China Buys 23 Tons Of Gold In 9th Straight Month Of Purchases, Total Rises To Record 2,137 Tons | ZeroHedge seems like a lot of XAU Brazil hosts the Amazon nations in a bid to save the rainforest (qz.com) Glencore on Twitter: "We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end-of-life electronics, and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds. Read our 2022 Annual Report to learn more." / X Today in Switzerland: A roundup of the latest news on Wednesday - The Local AUDUSD held that big 0.6500 area - so far anyway - U.S: CPI key

Moody’s places credit ratings of 6 major U.S. banks on review for downgrade, '' mounting funding costs, office exposure '' (and downgraded a few regional banks too) and in Italy : Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet approved a surprise tax on the “extra profits” of banks this year Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in 12mo s, Mr Market starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields Food prices may never fall agai n following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says UBS shuffles bank bosses in bid to better compete with Wall Street. Around 80% of Hong Kong-based investment banking staff at Credit Suisse will be laid off. What did Ermotti know of the 'fusion' ? AMZN to Meet Regulators as U.S. Considers Possible Antitrust Suit . Amazon’s meetings with the Federal Trade Commission, known as “last rites” meetings, are typically a final step before the agency votes on filing a lawsuit Cars have more tech than ever — and drivers are increasingly frustrated with their door handles, screens, and other features Brazil central bank names its digital currency 'DREX,' scheduled for 2024 launch No more hydrogen trains | Rail company that launched world's first H2 line last year opts for all-electric future. State-owned LNVG to buy 102 battery trains and 27 catenary-connected models in order to phase out diesel, says Lower Saxony government Goldman Commodities Research Chief Jeff Currie set to leave Bank China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports , missing expectations Markets : German 30y yield to the highest since early 2014 Broad 'sell-hedge' on rallies mood on recent bumper rallies in SPX7's perhaps and AI stocks Equity markets do not want a stronger U.S CPI this week, Moddy's on banks not helpful for the sector, credit is becoming an issue, HK/Chinese property developer and so on. IF, there was to be some 'seasonal' unwinding of 'owned positions', Aug and Sep can often be tough, particularly after such a strong run up in this AI related short-covering rally #NVDA ertc USDollar slightly firmer, AUDUSD massive levels around 0.6500 (chinese data remains very poor), similar to Eq, clear risk for markets is stronger usd from here GOLD, XAGUSD struggling to hold rallies lately Moody’s places credit ratings of 6 major U.S. banks on review for downgrade (msn.com) BOJ will need to be more flexible given inflation uncertainties - Nikkei Asia Country Garden says its cash flow shows periodic liquidity stress - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Seems most or all property developers are or will be in trouble..amazing China reports double-digit plunge in July exports and imports, missing expectations (cnbc.com) SoftBank Group books surprise first-quarter loss | Reuters Glencore appeases shareholders with more buybacks after steep drop in profits (cityam.com) Inventories remains low, which is a risk going forward Palantir (PLTR) Q2 earnings report 2023 (cnbc.com) Food prices may never fall again following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says | Business News | Sky News >>> we tend to agree, but with their records maybe it's what was required for lower prices!! Arriva tassa sugli extraprofitti delle banche, fondi per i mutui - Notizie - Ansa.it Italy Surprises Markets With New Tax on ‘Extra’ Profits of Banks (yahoo.com) No more hydrogen trains | Rail company that launched world's first H2 line last year opts for all-electric future | Hydrogen news and intelligence (hydrogeninsight.com) probably quite surprising to many Amazon to Meet Regulators as U.S. Considers Possible Antitrust Suit - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Apple iPhone 15 release date around Sept. 22: report (cnbc.com) Brazil central bank names its digital currency 'DREX,' scheduled for 2024 launch | Reuters Copper - metal of the future (glencore.com) Canadian pension scheme shorts UK water companies (thetimes.co.uk) Boeing resets Starliner's first crewed spaceflight target for March (cnbc.com) India's Moon Mission Enters Lunar Orbit Ahead of Historic Landing Attempt (gizmodo.com) Trump Admits How Legal Troubles Could Hurt 2024 Campaign (newsweek.com) what a circus this all is Judge dismisses Trump's defamation claim against E. Jean Carroll | Reuters Tesla 'master of coin' quits: CFO Zachary Kirkhorn to leave after 13 years (cityam.com) UBS shuffles bank bosses in bid to better compete with Wall Street - Nikkei Asia Wann wusste Ermotti von CS-Rettung? - Inside Paradeplatz Drivers Frustrated With Their Cars Door Handles, Screens, Other Tech (businessinsider.com) California’s Home Insurer Retreat Signals Long-Term Rating Risk, S&P Warns - Bloomberg Massimo on Twitter: "Impressive hailstorm in Tricesimo, Udine, Italy on August 7: the roads turned into torrents of ice again [source, HD: https://t.co/mRiPLPBzLp] https://t.co/661tiejZIz" / X Crazy weather! At least two people said to have declined resignation honours from Liz Truss | Liz Truss | The Guardian Why on earth do they have ‘resignation honours lists’ ? totally bonkers GB News: Politicians' shows under scrutiny in new Ofcom investigations - BBC News surely not... NVIDIA - what a run up

Week ahead : U.S CPI/PPI main event China CPI/PPI as well, 10y UST yields back to that key 4.10% level (slightly softer NFP headline), DXY chopping around/slight USD strength though, WTI near highs though, Equity markets struggle when AAPL struggles, will the magnificent 7's struggle form here ? (lots of short AAPL long AMXN or MSFT type calls following earnings, make sense, AAPL on a 32 PE and no growth was always going to be challenging! Right now Mr Market is pricing in a FED that is done with hiking, on hold till Jan 2024 and a cut in March and another in May 2024 FED's : Bowman warned more rate hikes "will likely be needed, " a contrast from other Fed officials advocating wait-and-see, is "looking for consistent evidence" that inflation continues to moderate, Bostic & Goolsbee said after Friday's slower job growth data that the labor market is becoming better balanced, so the FOMC can afford to be patient Why net zero requires a reinvention of civilisation Niger coup : Is France to blame for instability in West Africa? Rice markets could face further turmoil as Thailand urges farmers to plant less rice If you think inflation is over, and deflation is coming, remember that 100y Austria , good times, well now is time to buy, where do you think it's trading ? Lula calls (insisting!) for end to U.S. dollars dominance in International trade US oil reserves at lowest level since 1985 , fastest decline in history over last 2 years, the US said they are delaying refilling reserves again due to “market conditions.” Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments , marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis JPM saw a recession 3 weeks ago, now they don't anymore .. MS’s Mike Wilson blames persistent fiscal spending for why his stock call was wrong this year . “Fiscal policy has allowed the economy to grow faster than forecast, giving rise to the consensus view that the risk of a recession has faded considerably.” China is adding more renewable s each year than the EU, U.S and India combined Netanyahu pulling back on judicial revamp. Record Number of Chinese LGFVs Mis s Payments on Short-Term Debt - Bloomberg The recent factory-building boom has contributed the most to US GDP growth since 1981, manufacturing construction mainly, spending has been part offset to Fed tightening Warren Buffett found few bargains in the second quarter , Berkshire Hathaway's earnings show. The investor's company sold a net $8 billion of stock, and spent only $1.4 billion on buybacks. Berkshire's cash pile grew by 13% to a near-record $147 billion as a result Markets : SPX goes where AAPL goes and/or markets can't rally when APPL struggles, pretty clear >> been a HUGE momentum trade on low vols, watch out if systematic funds are 'forced' to unwind now, Vix, but more importantly ODTE stuff key ! SHARP turnaround off highs, outside day on Friday USD mixed, though if the unwind picks up pace, USDJPY will be in trouble, the fcat that the BoJ HAD or is intervening twice last week to mitigate the rising cost of debt, caused by a marginal shift in rates totally underestimate the enormity of the current debt situation! and all the majors are in a similar boat.. GOLD : while it's true that the $$ has not dropped and GOLD has not rallied either, you can easily take the opposite view ! most would have expected the sharp rise in UST yields to push the USDollar higher and XAU down, in reality none of it has happened, thus suggest a weak underlying $$ and XAU has actually done 'okay' Bonds, duration, market is long duration and the BoJ is inviting JPN managers to bring capital back home Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Jefferies: "We still expect a recession, but now we are looking for it to begin in Q1 2024 rather than Q3 2023." https://t.co/RFfHBqnU2Y" / X Warren Buffett is struggling to find bargains, Berkshire Hathaway's 2nd-quarter earnings show (yahoo.com) The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "US oil reserves are now at their lowest level since 1985. The decline of US reserves over the last 2 years is faster than any time in history, and it’s not even close. Just last week, the US said they are delaying refilling reserves again due to “market conditions.” Meanwhile,… https://t.co/90KUukqFjC" / X David Ingles on Twitter: "Three very important charts on the current overall sentiment of Chinese consumers. Better but still in need of a confidence boost; still unimpressed with outlook. Source: Goldman Sachs https://t.co/gwmpo01gX5" / X Record China Local State Borrowers Miss Short-Term Debt Payments - Bloomberg Brazilian president calls for end to U.S. dollars dominance in International trade (gazettengr.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments, marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis. Net inflows from international investors over the past 50 days have reached historically elevated levels, maintaining a… https://t.co/NRRAqSEvwq" / X Apple iPhone 15 Pro Goes on Sale September 22, Announced September 12 or 13 - Bloomberg Airstrikes kill three in Ukraine, Moscow airport ceases flights after failed drone attack | The Hill Niger coup: Is France to blame for instability in West Africa? - BBC News Why net zero requires a reinvention of civilisation (thetimes.co.uk) excellent read Why the way things are/go, net zero is a pipe dream Switzerland’s hands-off approach to espionage - SWI swissinfo.ch Thailand wants its farmers to plant less rice to save water (cnbc.com) Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu Pulling Back on Judicial Revamp - Bloomberg Imran Khan: Is his political future over now he is in jail? - BBC News Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "The Chancellor has given an interview in which he denies Brexit is at least partly responsible for the the UK’s stubbornly high inflation compared to the US & eurozone Not only is that patently untrue - by denying it he’s insulting the publics intelligence. Watch in disbelief https://t.co/QRtjRnrtqR" / X And there is that Fifty-seven swimmers fall sick and get diarrhoea at world triathlon championship in Sunderland | Pollution | The Guardian Matt on Twitter: "@campbellclaret This was Whitby today. Absolutely disgusting 🤮 https://t.co/pRu36cUEYN" / X France to speed up nuclear power deployment – EURACTIV.com Inflation profiteering charge levelled at Swiss retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch Austria wants to save cash payments from a contactless world (qz.com) NASDAQ

ALL about long-ends, 30y UST yields up 30bps in just few days to 4.3%, Fitch downgrade was well overdue, fiscal stance questioned, fiscal cliff every year, risk management ?...cost of debt financing going exponentially higher US NFP today is the 1st of few key data ahead of the Fed Sept meeting, U.S CPI next week Underlying inflation in the euro zone has probably peaked, pointing to slower growth in other prices too, the ECB says >> likely to cement market's expectations for a pause in rate hikes in Sept AAPL revenues were down 1% vs the prior year, that's the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative yearly growth and it trades at 32 P/E..high multiple and low/zero growth, AMZN was a beat, +11% revs yoy, well above expectations -Latin America’s central banks, which acted much faster than their US and European counterparts to raise interest rates, are declaring victory in the war on inflation -Achieving Net Zero Looks Like a Pipe Dream in Asia. China alone consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, with India, Indonesia, and Vietnam not far behind. finews.asia looks at it all in the context of a record-breaking summer heatwave -UST 10y yields now above the levels that triggered most of the issues across the 'regional' banking industry earlier this year -BYD volume growth is insane . Not a true like for like vs TSLA (BYD sells both EV and hybrids), but a 10x growth in 2years is wild! China eases entry visa and hukou rules in all-out push to save the economy Warren Buffett says he’s not worried about Fitch’s U.S. downgrade and it's not changing anything that Berkshire's doing in the markets right now >> he is buying 3 and 6mos Bills....not 10 or 30y UST's... Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates rise. Buyout groups must ‘go back to investing in the old-fashioned way’, Marc Rowan says Oil prices rally in response to production cut extension in Saudi Arabia Markets : Investors underestimating risks that a structurally higher cost of capital environment does to the U.S govt debt (and others), but specially with UST curve inverted. VIX still mid teens, equity markets (SPX7s mainly) pretty overvalued and credit spreads totally supressed, watch if tighter financial conditions materialize from here MM Funds AUM have hit $5.5trn with yields at 5% (1.5trn during the ZIRP years) BoJ intervene twice in JGB's this week to slow bond sell-off FED balance-sheet down about $750bn from Apr 2022 peak (only..), it expanded by $4trn in 2020-2021 period.. 30y UST yields are up 30bps in just a few days, to 4.30% >>> fiscal responsibility being questioned... EURUSD 1.0900 and 1.0935 are support, 55 and 100dma's and trendline support, Crude up and USDMXN up, sign that correlation breaking, unwinding of positions, don't own what the street owns.., Gas prices hitting new highs for the year Equity markets struggling this week, AMZN saved the day, overall, would reduce on anything that is 'owned' and consensus Oil prices rally in response to production cut extension in Saudi Arabia (yahoo.com) BOE governor Bailey cautious amid 'unwelcome surprises' in inflation (cnbc.com) Such a poor delivery from BoE, they totally failed to see inflation coming 2y ago, when it was pretty obvious.... and now they won't see the slowdown till it's too late.. >>> HIGH for longer though, let's hope for the many they don't hike anymore 5 Charts That Show the Rise of BYD, TSLA, and the Electric Car Boom - Bloomberg Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates rise | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple shares slump despite beating sales expectations (yahoo.com) AAPL sales lower profit slight better due to lower tax, you cant justify a P/E of 32 when there is no growth.. and q3 guided small lower Amazon online sales improve despite economy fears - BBC News JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says downgrading U.S. credit rating is ‘ridiculous’ when countries relying on Washington are rated higher (msn.com) Of course he would and of course he has to say that Fiscal situation is much worse than it was even 6months or 3y ago..clearly.. Rampant DC dysfunction made America’s credit downgrade inevitable (yahoo.com) yup Achieving Net Zero Looks Like a Pipe Dream in Asia (finews.asia) Latin America’s central banks declare victory in war on inflation | Financial Times (ft.com) From unicorns to ponies US Treasuries are losing their luster | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Opposite to what happened in 2011, Fitch's US rating downgrade might prove to be bearish for US Treasuries for a straightforward reason: why would investors buy ten-year US Treasuries (AA+) at 4% when USD hedged ten-year Bunds (AAA) pay 4.25%? Not only that, but the "soft-landing" scenario and larger US treasury auctions spell for higher yields. Ten-year yields are likely to head towards 4.3%, while two-year yields are likely to test resistance again at 5.04%. Yet, the rise in yields will be stopped abruptly when something breaks, which is more likely to happen as yields continue to soar ....and Joseph Wang on Twitter: "Here's latest Treasury supply estimates from public and private sector analysts. Bill issuance is heavy next few months, so Treasury will soon be at their 20% recommended level. Then trillions in coupons each year forever IMO I can't see anything but structurally higher yields. https://t.co/PzKbwWyHeO" / X Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The US Treasury selloff has been driven by long-dated notes, not those most sensitive to Fed policy. This suggests two things: traders expect inflation to stay higher for longer and they question whether the Fed is truly going to raise rates high enough to achieve 2% inflation https://t.co/el0ugW2yRf" / X Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The median price of a starter home in the US is 46% higher than 2019 levels. The monthly mortgage payment needed to purchase one of these homes has more than doubled over that time period. Video: https://t.co/mECf8sjSEK https://t.co/YfC7iLnP23" / X Rishi Sunak is quietly admitting that Brexit has been bad for business (inews.co.uk) Better late than never! Ukraine war: Crimea naval base attack, Kyiv 'dominates' frontline, Russia hits Kherson church (yahoo.com) China eases entry visa and hukou rules in all-out push to save the economy | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) U.S. Business Confidence in China Is Rising, Survey Finds - Caixin Global UBC study finds owners of pricey Vancouver homes pay very little income tax | UBC Magazine these kind of things need to change.. 2nd, 3rd home or more, higher council taxes, wealth taxes and so on, rightly or wrongly it will happen, everywhere Mexico’s president slams Texas governor as ‘inhumane’ | The Hill Canada wildfires: Emissions more than double previous annual record (cnbc.com) Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sues Placebo singer for calling her 'fascist, racist' | World News | Sky News EURUSD again, USD overall bid tone

Qualcomm gave light forecast, phone chip sales fall 17% >> risk for AAPL tonight, and he implied volatility for put options on Apple is at one of its lowest levels in history right before their earnings release later on today...market sees no risk.. BoE most likely +25bps - been expected and priced for long while, UK had a composite PMI of 50.8 in July Swiss manufacturing PMI 38.5 (forecasts 44 , previous 44.9) - U.S ADP employment July 324K (estimate 190K..) stronger again, Services PMI in Sweden jumping from 45.9 to 52.7, Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices Chinese EV maker BYD is rocketing up Fortune’s Global 500 ranking. Meanwhile, Chinese battery giant CATL made it in the Global 500 for the first time Fitch sent a warning on 23rd April : - said it would maintain its AAA rating as long as Congress resolved the debt-ceiling impasse with no damage to financial markets. If default becomes a serious risk, however, “the US’s rating would likely be placed on rating watch negative and further rating action could be considered.” >>> IMHO, the downgrade came (at least partly) because of 'dysfunctional budget process', ie none of them in politics at mom are prepared to adjust /reduce spending etc.. if necessary...! As Grundlach says '' US budget deficit is near 9% of GDP in an economy not viewed as being in recession. That means if a year ago we actually (*shock*) balanced the budget, GDP would have been near -6% last 12 months. If rates stay at 5.5% long enough interest payments will go up another $1 TRILLION'' Brazil central bank kicks off rate cuts more aggressively than expected (50bps cuts), Westpac says Reserve Bank of Australia now on hold until first rate cut in September 2024 US mortgage purchase applications fell 9.5% over the past 5 weeks The BIS estimated that by the end of last year Chinese household debt reached 61.3 per cent of its economic output , compared to 47.7 per cent for the average of emerging economies, and 74.4 per cent in the United States and 68.2 per cent in Japan "China's CAC said on Wednesday children under the age of 18 should be limited to a maximum of two hours a day on their smartphones . Investors were not impressed." ...I bet many parents will never say it, but parents and teachers elsewhere around the world love the idea.. Amazon Clinic expands doctor visit marketplace to 50 states Market : Recall yesterday's words from most big banks economist 'this Fitch move means nothing'' , ignore and move along...>>> the point is, markets been very quiet, poor liquidities, low implied vols, risk has rallied hard on short covering, ignoring strong usd and higher yields, long-ends breaking down (through 4.10% in yield terms), still 75bps of inversion out there !!! beware USDJPY, CROSSJPY's should stay heavy, JPY been oversold/carry trades, it worked, but beware too, basically, in short-term, beware on whatever is owned out there (AI trades, NVDA?...).. Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno says watching FX moves closely, as expected! BTC should/could well have a decent move down on 'long-end UST' moves , long GOLD while sub $1950 also at risk, XAG had a decent dump yesterday, must hold around $23 for the bulls One should worry/plan/hedge/consider the risk of a decent credit event now, particularly if long-end rates continue to sell-off Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to new 15-year high to fight inflation – business live (theguardian.com) Reuters Business on Twitter: "WATCH: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen voiced more objections to Fitch Ratings' downgrade of the main US credit rating, calling it 'entirely unwarranted' because it ignored improvements in governance metrics and the country's economic strength https://t.co/pqK48JnBjU https://t.co/JWNIv3x3BA" / X economic strength built on ever expanding debt..and cost of this $33trn debt is now $1trn yearly, Fitch is just the messenger for politicos.. US shale firm CEO predicts $80-$100 a barrel of oil through 2024 (naturalgasworld.com) Robin Brooks on Twitter: "EM easing cycle has begun in earnest. Last month, Chile surprised with a 100 bps cut and yesterday Brazil did a larger-than-expected 50 bps cut. These EMs were early to hike, built up lots of credibility, and can now cut. Turkey and Russia are another matter. Both have to hike... https://t.co/XPT3mXXXhI" / X Brazil central bank kicks off rate cuts more aggressively than expected (msn.com) Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings report Q2 2023 (cnbc.com) risk for AAPL earnings tonight ? Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "The implied volatility for put options on Apple is at one of its lowest levels in history right before their earnings release tomorrow. What could go wrong? Despite adding more than 1 trillion in market capitalization this year, their annual free cash flow is projected to… https://t.co/VQf5Ewvdxd" / X Russia strikes Ukraine's Danube port, driving up global grain prices | Reuters Ukrainian soldiers describe their experiences battling Russia (economist.com) SoftBank's Arm Ltd targets valuation up to $70 billion in September IPO, Bloomberg reports | Reuters Amazon Clinic expands doctor visit marketplace to 50 states (yahoo.com) Australians are so mad about the return to office, they’re taking companies to court to stop it (yahoo.com) Chinese EV maker BYD surges in Fortune Global 500 ranking (qz.com) China’s household debt creeps upward, approaching warning line of International Monetary Fund | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Always a great handle on China Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/5 Good article. Hancock notes that "The optimistic vision, pushed by some government-linked economists, is that the strength of so-called new economy sectors can make up for property’s decline." https://t.co/S4Sn9yXIbs via @BW" / X Typhoon Khanun forecast to turn back to Japanese islands where it already left damage and injuries | AP News A car-carrying ship that burned for a week on the North Sea will be towed to a Dutch port | AP News 61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck even as inflation cools (cnbc.com) The microbes that could protect grapevines from climate change - BBC Future EURJPY - if you can afford 158+...decent signs of weakness... AUDJPY showing weak signs too

Fitch downgrades U.S. after ''repeated debt limit standoffs'' >>> $33trn pile of debt and growing exponentially, cost of financing through the roof etc... the surprise is how long it took to downgrade, US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded Quite important as the US was split rated with Fitch & Moody’s at AAA and S&P at AA+ , which meant that despite the 2011 S&P downgrade, the US was still a AAA country. But now with the downgrade overnight, it is no longer the case "In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years" Saudi borrowing costs hit record, threatening Crown Prince MBS’ Vision 2030 , Saibor moves above 6%, potentially hitting Saudi businesses >>> same problem Russia targeted Odesa region port infrastructure, Ukraine says - Izmail port hit in Russian drone attack, The UK foreign secretary has accused Russia of hitting "a new low" by "deliberately burning food stocks" while millions of people are "struggling to eat" Prices for luxe Swiss watches like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are approaching a 2y low on secondary markets (after a huge rally in previous years..) Donald Trump: Ex-US president charged with plotting to overturn 2020 election defeat The average price of a used Tesla is now over $25k lower than its peak price from last July . That's a 37% decline to $42,785, a new all-time low (good news! finally some ok 2nd hand EV prices!) FED’s Bostic Urges caution with more hikes as inflation recedes China's cyberspace watchdog CAC issued a draft regulation on mobile services for juveniles, to extend the scope of control to hardware. For users aged 8 to 15, mobile devices should be set to default to a total usage time of no more than 1 hour Markets : EURUSD 1.0950 area trends line support a must hold for EURO bulls, sell CROSSJPY's, TP on longs, tactical short from here GOLD 50dma around $1950 a must hold for the bulls on weeklies NQ and SPX500 uptrends very 'stretched' - see Saxo charts below, Asia was down quite sharply again overnight Markets been too quiet, low vols, AI momentum driven rally, 'mem' stocks joined in etc.. and a surprise came about, US rating downgrade, many will claim it doesn't matter...let's see, IMHO, it does with 33trn of debt and growing.. Yellen is right, it is based on old data, correct >>> the cost of financing debt is not 500bn but it is now $1trillion yearly..!! Fitch downgrades U.S. after debt limit stalemate - POLITICO It's always some else's fault.. fact it, here we are.. Biden team: US credit rating decision 'bizarre' - and it's Trump's fault - CityAM The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "Total US debt levels are expected to rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 118% of GDP in 2033. By 2053, Debt-to-GDP in the US is expected to hit an alarming 195%. Hopefully today's downgrade of the US credit rating brings some more attention to this topic. This is unsustainable. https://t.co/Cs4Tmw3PzH" / X SUMMARY OF FITCH'S U.S. CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADE: Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ for the first time since 2011. Here's why: 1. Erosion of Governance: Repeated debt-limited political standoffs have eroded confidence in fiscal management 2. Rising Government Deficits: Fitch expects the deficit to rise to 6.3% on GDP in 2023 from 3.7% in 2022 3. General Government Debt Rising: Fitch expects further increases in debt-to-GDP going forward 4. Unaddressed Medium-Term Fiscal Challenges: Rising rates are resulting in an increase in interest costs and tax cuts set in 2017 are set to expire in 2025, adding political pressure 5. Fed Interest Rate Hikes: Fitch expects one more rate hike by September which adds more pressure on ratings Fitch made it clear that failure to address governmental spending issues and macroeconomic policy could lead to MORE negative revisions . Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded. This was the second steepest year-over-year percentage decline in history, with only the GFC having a worse outcome. Note that Federal tax receipts are also dropped again,… https://t.co/jLa1hKTUcq" / X Technical analysis SP500 Nasdaq100 uptrends stretched correction looming | Saxo Group (home.saxo) >> Summary: Uptrends in S&P 500/US500 cfd and Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 cfd are very stretched and charts are showing top and reversal patterns. Combined with divergence on indicators a correction should be expected. Key supports to be observed Nicely put together - market update, charts etc The Week in Charts (7/31/23) - Charlie Bilello's Blog Saudi Arabia Borrowing Rate Saibor Surges, Hurting MBS's Diversification Push - Bloomberg Bank of England set to raise interest rates above 5% | Evening Standard The last one that tips a few things over the edge.. Russian drones hit port, grain storage in Ukraine's Odesa region -official | Reuters James Cleverly accuses Russia of new low in Africa speech - BBC News mainly macro: The Farage-Coutts affair exemplifies the bankruptcy of UK media and politics Donald Trump: Ex-US president charged with plotting to overturn 2020 election defeat - what happens next (yahoo.com) NASDAQ - overdone

Happy Swiss National day China manuf PMI came in at 49.3 in July, slightly better than the expected 49.2, China non-manufacturing PMI slowed to 51.5 in July, its 4th straight monthly decline Hence, looking at overnight data : China to provide easier access for mid- to long-term funds to invest in its stock market as “stabilizers” and guide household savings to the market, as part of its capital market reform, China Securities Journal There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9 bn from consumer spending every month , or $100 bn a year/Apollo's Slok Chile’s central bank slashed its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100 basis points, RBA leaves cash rate unch anged at 4.10% for a second straight meeting Americans owe nearly $1 trillion in credit card debt (pretty scary numbers, with financing a over 20% on average) U.S Treasury boosts July-Sep quarterly borrowing est to $1trn (from $733bn), The US National debt is up $1.8 trillion since the debt ceiling “crisis.”, to about $33trn by now Goldman warns on betting on tech, AI: "The dot-com experience of the late 1990s is worth remembering because some telecom companies that spent mightily to install miles of dark fiber never generated a return sufficient to cover their cost of capital" US banks further tightened lending standards for loans in the second quarter/Thread BP CEO Bernard Looney says that global oil demand has been "incredibly resilient" ; he sees a 2m b/d y-on-y increase in 2023 (similar to other oil CEO's..) A new report finds that some popular EVs and hybrids in the US are now selling below MSRP , suggesting demand for sought-after electrified vehicles may be slipping Warren Buffett's favorite market gauge hits 171%, signaling stocks are overheated Exxon About To Become 'Lithium Kingpin'? Talks Begin With Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Reports Say Burkina Faso and Mali say they will consider a regional military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them Markets : More short covering in few meme stocks last few days, pretty sharp moves in % terms for many of them most shorted names. SPX500 and main indices awaiting big earning reports over next few days from AMZN & AAPL AUD a little softer again on RBA (which looks all but done) and softer China data , USDCHF finding a bid again 0.9650+ area, USDJPY will be taken higher by markets and pushed till BoJ says or actually does anything big (anything other than 'we are watching FX moves'', BoJ will either need to defend the JPY again vs USD, or risk severe inflation/PPI etc >>>> stronger USDollar (oversold) developping in short-term, could well shake risk a little bit Crude stays firm, biggest monthly rise in commods ..which may become an issue with 2nd round type inflation scare. Though whet prices NO higher, in face of UKR news of grain destruction from RU ExxonMobil in lithium supply talks with Tesla, Ford: Report (msn.com) How new lithium extraction tech could help us meet EV targets (cnbc.com) Buffett Indicator Hits 171%, Signaling Stocks Are Pricey and May Crash (businessinsider.com) Several EVs and hybrids now selling below MSRP, report says (yahoo.com) Oil rallies in July as traders give up 'growth pessimism': Goldman (yahoo.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "US banks further tightened lending standards for loans in the second quarter. Historically, tighter lending standards have been accompanied by - negative loan growth - declining #GDPgrowth - a spike in #defaults - widening credit and high yield #spreads Have you looked at high… https://t.co/TX0Lnqf9UX" / X China Stocks Rally as Optimism Builds Over Economic Stimulus - Bloomberg Cover Story: China’s Property Crisis Contagion Spreads to State-Backed Developers - Caixin Global and Contraction in China factory activity extends into a fourth month (cnbc.com) 11 dead and 27 missing in flooding around Beijing after days of rain, Chinese state media report (yahoo.com) pretty crazy weather and floods Marc Rubinstein on Twitter: "After 15 years as a public company, Sculptor Capital Mgmt (formerly Och-Ziff)—one of the only listed hedge funds—finally called time. The experiment failed. The stock came to the market at $320 and goes out at $11. Along the way, employees took out $4.3bn of comp.…" / X Coinbase CEO says SEC told it to delist everything but Bitcoin: Report (cointelegraph.com) Caroline Ellison paid herself $22.5 million bonus around the time she estimated a more than $10 billion cash shortfall at FTX, lawsuit alleges (yahoo.com) Six wind turbines installed to boost Switzerland’s green power - SWI swissinfo.ch Retailers in trouble as 51 per cent of punters cut back on clothes shopping (cityam.com) That's were folks are cutting HSBC Doubles Profit From Higher Interest Rates (finews.asia) >>> The boss of HSBC has warned that “tougher times are ahead” for British households as an increasing number of fixed mortgage deals end Loan officers expect to tighten standards for rest of 2023: Fed (yahoo.com) How much credit card debt Americans hold by age (cnbc.com) France announces evacuation from Niger as Britons urged to register (msn.com) Turkey to target ‘under the mattress’ gold in effort to bolster the lira | Financial Times (ft.com) Bob Elliott on Twitter: "Folks are likely sick of me talking about gold, but enjoyed sharing my perspective here: "Most investors don't realize that over the last 75 years during periods of equity declines, gold has served as a better protection than bonds about half the time." https://t.co/msnCzgCJLw" / X Brazil stock market - tempting !

Goldman Sachs: "We estimate that global oil demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8m b/d"... U.S PCE for June slowed more than exp. to 0.165% MoM, 4.1% YoY, lowest since Sep 2021, Kashkari talking 50/50 for Sep, nothing that inflation outlook was quite positive JPY backed off after BoJ , as most of the move happened before BoJ meeting ( RR flipped quickly on Friday morning for JPY puts, market took profit on their long JPYcalls), Goldman, Morgan Stanley say BOJ's latest move will boost Japanese stocks, IN FACT they bought 10y JGB's this morning as an 'emergency operation'! UBS on Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control - ceiling seems to be 1%, let's see when it'll be tested Germany faces 5 tough years, economy minister warns . Berlin should borrow money to subsidize energy for companies or risk losing its industry, Robert Habeck cautions G4 Central Banks Balance Sheet, Normalization... Still far away >> from 26trn to 22trn, it was 16trn before covid China : For all the excitement, most of these measures don't expand consumption at all . They are designed to "encourage" consumption/Thread from M.Pettis, but quite a few arguments elsewhere that it should encourage equity investments locally again.. The S&P 500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022 Lagarde : ECB made very good progress on inflation, 'could hike again after a pause', ECB's Nagel says eurozone core inflation is stubborn, need interest rates kept high Inflation profiteering charge leveled at Swiss retailers Markets : 10y UST 4%, still in this goldilocks range, might be time to watch out though 3.8/4.1% ranged more recently to keep an eye on! FX : JPY back to 3week lows, BoJ tweak not enough, CROSSJPY's rally together with USDJPY, the RR move Friday morning was the tell, mixed USD moves, a little bit of CHF weakness (very relative). N orges Bank will purchase equivalent to NOK 1B per day in August 2023, unch from July Equity markets continue to enjoy their goldilocks moment, 'meme' stocks joining in, more broad based rally seen, NIKKEI back up, HSI Techs in focus too etc. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.4 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4). Crude WTI $80+ continue to hold well, sticking with view risk is higher still , big July rally in cruide and various commodities, which makes you think about another kick in inflation.. Christine Lagarde: «Nous avons beaucoup avancé dans notre combat contre l’inflation» (lefigaro.fr) Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/8 For all the excitement, most of these measures don't expand consumption at all. They are designed to "encourage" consumption, by improving delivery mechanisms, creating more consumption "occasions", promoting sports and cultural events, reducing... https://t.co/pgw3481D39" / X Market breath : ''Looking at the percentage of SPX members that are trading over their respective 50DMAs - this metric nearly hit 90% this week, and that has typically coincided with extremely positive performance going forward, with the SPX averaging 15% 12mo perf and positive returns after nearly every single occurrence of breaking 85%. That being said, there are reasons to be cautious. First, nearly every historical occurrence came after a recession or fiscal / monetary / debt / trading crisis – arguably we haven’t gotten ours yet. Second, these periods of broad stock gains don’t seem to last very long'' Germany faces 5 tough years, economy minister warns – POLITICO Intel's AI bullishness shows its anxiety on catching Nvidia (qz.com) African Union gives 15-day ultimatum to Niger junta to end regime but soldiers seek continuity | The Independent Europe weather: How heatwaves could forever change summer holidays abroad - BBC News Extreme heat in Europe prompts tourists to seek cooler vacation spots (cnbc.com) Sunak announces approval of 100 new North Sea oil and gas licences | Fossil fuels | The Guardian Bank of England monetary bosses should have their pay tied to inflation targets - CityAM Inflation profiteering charge leveled at Swiss retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch Company pays employees to exercise: It's a 'fail-safe investment' (cnbc.com) USDJPY - never traded below 138JPY for the $ bulls to be challenged... risk is up and away again

BoJ headline 'unchanged', but it isn't, BoJ decided "to conduct yield curve control with greater flexibility, regarding the upper and lower bounds of the range as references, not as rigid limits” >>> an invitation to price discovery for markets Powell and Lagarde sounding very similar in the last 48hours, however their underlying economies flagging anything but the same signals.. (China, UKR-RU grain risk, energy prices etc)...>>> hence growing conviction that ECB is closer to a pause than the FED ECB's Müller : at current levels, ECB decision are no longer obvious, rate hikes are clearly having an effect, food-price rises likely ot ease in H2 2023, near-term GDP outlook worse than a few months ago ECB raised all rates by 25bps as exp, depot rate to 3.75%, highest since Apr2001, main refi rate to 4.25%, highest since 2008. It’s 9th consecutive hike in a cycle that started exactly 1y ago. APP Portfolio declining at measured and predictable pace so balance sheet will continue to shrink in months ahead >>> Bank shares dropped following ECB decision to no longer pay interest on the minimum reserves, and Lagarde got a little 'tested' when reminded that last month she said they were not even thinking about pausing... Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné, asked today about high electricity prices in Europe: " The world has changed. [...] The energy transition has an impact on the energy prices, and there is no way to make the transition in Europe without an even higher price." 'The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived' UN Secretary General António Guterres warns of 'unbreathable' air and 'unbearable' temperatures to come Italy taking different path than Germany (China or US) JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Records in 2024 as Fed Cuts Rates Citigroup tells UK workers it will begin monitoring office attendance data , the latest sign of Wall Street's increasingly stringent approach to remote work Putin promised to send free grain to six African countries amid criticism of Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints Regulators announce ‘Basel III endgame’ rules for large US banks May Sell Special Bond to Swap Local Hidden Debts - Securities Times. Authorities in China are likely to issue special bonds for refinancing purpose to swap local hidden debt after the Politburo hinted at a package to address the problem Sequoia Cuts Crypto Fund to $200 Million From $585 Million -- WSJ (also pares back ecosystem fund by half, amid broader startup downturn Markets : Cocoa prices now, hitting a 12y highs >>> If -- and that's a big if -- current petroleum prices stick, energy inflation will become a y-on-y problem from Aug-Sept . CB's will need to keep an eye on gasoline and diesel again. Wheat fell for a third day from the highest close in five months as the outlook for ample near-term supplies outweighed concerns over the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port facilities EURO set for its biggest weekly fall since early may, finally markets realizing that EU growth may be (is) in a worse spot then the U.S. >>> also comments from Knot we referred to two weeks ago (Müller today), confirming top at 1.12 eurusd, thus confirming lows in USDCHF around 0.8600 >>> USD needs to to above .8800CHF and below 1.0850euro to confirm, watch out for EURJPY now too - IMHO, ECB is done on rates Equity markets pushed higher again META initially and on ECB news, but faded a little on EU and US banks news (above) BONDS, long-ends troubling moves, 10's UST back to 4%, A bear steepener would be a major pain trade right now JPY has been a one way traffic lower, supporting all kinds of carry trades this year, (Nikkei incl), so beware a possible change of mind by Mr Market is these relativelyx quiet/low implied vol/low liquidity summer weeks, VIX has gone totally off radars too Regulators announce ‘Basel III endgame’ rules for large US banks | Financial Times (ft.com) Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek on Twitter: "JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Records in 2024 as Fed Cuts Rates —Bank sees mild US recession and rate cuts in second quarter —Has price target of $2,175 for final three months of next year https://t.co/XK6oQFsrvp" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking to build up a relationship w/Joe Biden by pledging to break with #China. Meloni plans to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Biden will be asked to include Italy in calls on Ukraine. Italy, like much of Europe, has been caught… https://t.co/J7hIrsNW9L" / Twitter Meloni plans to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative . Biden will be asked to include Italy in calls on Ukraine. Italy, like much of Europe, has been caught in the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, which have been exacerbated by Beijing’s support for Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine China signals more support for real estate with a 'big change' in tone (cnbc.com) Low Fed interest rates reshaped the U.S. economy; here's what's next (cnbc.com) Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023 - News - IEA Coal consumption hit an all-time high in 2022, IEA says (cnbc.com) ITV warns of 'worst advertising recession since the financial crisis' (telegraph.co.uk) all going to META - actually Meta kept going by lowering ad prices (to keep high volumes) Reuters on Twitter: "Drone footage shot on the Greek island of Rhodes showed cliffs and trees scorched by wildfires that have raged for more than a week and led to the mass evacuation of tourists https://t.co/BOet5dUrN7" / Twitter Niger coup live: Unrest as army backs guards who moved against Bazoum | News | Al Jazeera Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints (cnbc.com) Government likely to lose millions in dispute over PPE contract awarded via ‘VIP lane’ | Conservatives | The Guardian >>> a tiny firm that had zero experience in PPE, that was introduced via the ‘VIP lane’ by a Tory peer, pocketed £20m+, delivered nada, changed its name, when sued, its offshore parent company conveniently went into liquidation....seems legit? Heavy rain speeds up slide of mountain towards Swiss village - SWI swissinfo.ch True nightmare UBS Not Out of the Woods in Forex Case (finews.asia) Donald Trump faces further charges in Mar-a-Lago classified documents probe | Evening Standard Beneath France’s revolts, hidden success (economist.com) NIKKEI - also benefited from ex china flows that went Japan's way recently, but IF JPY was to strengthen, then beware

ECB decision time. Fed hiked rates by 25bps, as expected for weeks, bringing fed funds rate to highest since beginning of 2001 >>> next 2 meeting are 'live', that is unchanged expectations as well, JPow keeping options open, got his balanced message across, will follow data etc... when you have wage growth of 5 or 6% it's going to be rather difficult for inflation to fall to 2% (Powell mentioned not before 2025..)>>> high(er) for longer, ECB similar pricing and expectations, BoJ tomorrow and it's more like 50/50 as to what they do or say..(given where inflation is in JPN, they have to tweak YCC but ...) Israel’s Tech Companies Are Fighting Netanyahu—or Leaving the Startup Nation. As protests rage over Israel’s controversial reforms to the supreme court, many tech companies have been moving their money and headquarters offshore Worst cardboard-box recession since 2008 could be a sign of broader economic weakness Microsoft sees AI making ‘gradual’ growth contributions Stocks will tumble, recession will strike, and dollar dominance is at risk, Thomas Peterffy warns This GOP candidate and his ideas deserve to be taken seriously/Asa Hutchinson Bank of Japan meet Friday - BoJ : BNP is expecting the BOJ to widen YCC to +/- 100 bps (from 50), GS and few others joining in the view Goldman Sachs said hedge fund clients net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in 9 months on Tuesday . It was led by purchases of yuan-denominated A-shares listed in mainland China, followed by Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong. The buying was muted for ADRs North Korea's Kim Jong Un will meet with high-level delegations from Russia & China in Pyongyang. Discussions will centre on deepening military ties Mastercard moves to ban cannabis purchases on its debit cards China tries to stimulate Private Investment With a $445 billion boost The world is consuming a record amount of crude, despite talk of shifting away from the fuel . "We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day:"/thread Ship fire still rages off Dutch coast - with 3000 cars on board UFOs and aliens bring a divided US Congress together ! SNAP has paid out a total of $8.2 billion in freshly issued stock (SBC) since its 2017 IPO. The company’s market cap today is $16bn, and it has never showed a profit Markets : Equity markets love a bit of lower vol, lower USDollar and softer/flatter curve, Dow notches longest winning streak since 1987 after latest Fed rate hike, META up nearly 10% after the bell.. SPX500 trending higher still, to new highs then , as long as 4300-4400 holds - chart below , HSI Techs 20pct off lows - massively underperforming US lately..>>> softer USDollar is also changing/supporting conf call of big large global corps including big techs.. USDollar softer still/overall going into ECB now, a hawkish Lagarde will be a surprise for markets now (after Knot the other week) and we could easily be right back to 1.12 highs in EURUSD, EURJPY 157-158 key recent tops, USDJPY needs to trade below 138 USDJPY to challenge the USD bulls Crude and commods firm(er) with softer USDollar, Rice prices in Asia jump to the highest level in more than three years after top shipper India banned a hefty chunk of its exports Inscrutable Bank of Japan will have to surprise someone | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here The Fed raised rates to a 22-year high, citing faster growth (qz.com) Meta stock gains after earnings, guidance from Facebook parent top expectations (yahoo.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The world is consuming a record amount of crude, despite talk of shifting away from the fuel. "We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day:" @JavierBlas https://t.co/hJtWC8v1iO https://t.co/8zNDB4ESDo" / Twitter FTC readies lawsuit that could break up Amazon - POLITICO Opinion | Asa Hutchinson's FBI reform proposal offers a model for Republicans - The Washington Post Turkish central bank raises year-end inflation forecast to 58% | Reuters that is not good Microsoft sees AI making ‘gradual’ growth contributions (yahoo.com) And it's expensive, it's great but it'll take time... How Low Demand for Cardboard Boxes Could Signal a Recession: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts (yahoo.com) Why big banks like JPMorgan want put Wall Street on a blockchain (cnbc.com) Thomas Peterffy Warns of Stock Market Plunge, Recession, Dollar Risks (businessinsider.com) Japan records steepest population decline while number of foreign residents hits new high - Japan Today China Tries To Stimulate Private Investment With A $445 Billion Boost | FastReveal Why Volvo's $35K Electric SUV Is One of the Best Tesla Rivals yet (businessinsider.com) Wasteland Capital on Twitter: "$SNAP has paid out a total of $8.2 billion in freshly issued stock (SBC) since its 2017 IPO. The company’s market cap today is $16bn, and it has never showed a profit (losing $9.2bn since the IPO). They invented a literal money printer for themselves. https://t.co/bZj4HneBGl" / Twitter Pimco co-founder Bill Gross says he's bought regional bank stocks - MarketWatch Netanyahu's reckless gamble has driven a wedge between Israel and the US (inews.co.uk) Israel’s Tech Companies Are Fighting Netanyahu—or Leaving the Startup Nation | WIRED UK Nothing good going on here Debakel: Vontobel fällt tief in Krise - Inside Paradeplatz Ethereum Technical Analysis - The bulls are watching these support levels | Forexlive few of you were asking - no specific view here, other than 'high-er for longer ' rates + reduction of balance-sheet from CB's should not help this sector Privacy group challenges Ryanair's use of facial recognition | Reuters Sinéad O'Connor obituary: A talent beyond compare - BBC News Regulate e-bike and e-scooter batteries like fireworks, urges charity | Evening Standard Let’s be honest, banks like Coutts should be able to choose their customers - CityAM pure coincidence.. ? GB News owner's hedge fund nets millions betting against NatWest (telegraph.co.uk) Ship fire still rages off Dutch coast (yahoo.com) good grief Sadiq turns up the pressure on Starmer over Brexit | The Spectator Mastercard moves to ban cannabis purchases on its debit cards | Reuters UFOs and aliens bring a divided US Congress together - BBC News SPX500 - grinding higher, unconcerned about much!

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is finalizing its long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in a move that could ultimately break up parts of the company, the wide-ranging lawsuit is expected as soon as August and will likely challenge a host of Amazon's business practices Texas Instrument softer guidance, MSFT 'slowing revenue growth', Snap 'weaker guidance-forecast' too, LVMH 'aspirational clients are not shopping as much as they used to'', Google better growth cloud computing mentioned, RR raises forecast MSFT say AI earnings to be gradual - probably close to reality ! it's huge, it's possibly game changer, but not everyone clearly is cashing in instantly...! a market that will have to deal with a lot of stuff that got priced in within 2months.. . July 2023 euro area bank lending survey : Credit standards tightened further for all loan categories, demand for loans decreased strongly for both firms and households, Banks more concerned about non-performing loans, set to tighten lending conditions, Climate risks increasingly reflected in lending conditions and Credit standards tightening in line with exp in Q2, and is set to tighten again in Q3 Looking ahead to #FOMC meeting this week, another rate hike would put “proxy fed funds rate” (which takes forward guidance and balance sheet operations into account) much closer to mid-2000 peak/Thread Puts tied to the S&P 500 dropping 5% in the next year have never cost less – BofA Oz inflation slightly softer headline Nigel Farage calls for entire NatWest board to go after boss quits over banking row, after The CEO of NatWest resigned in the middle of the night US charges British billionaire Joe Lewis with insider trading Dear ECB .. together with super weak PMI and Knot the other week (#eurusd top 1.12+) , Lagarde may well be close to 'flip-flopping'..."Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, was -8.0% in June, compared with -7.0% in May" ECB deleveraging continues . Ahead of this weeks meeting, CenBank shrank its balance sheet by €18.6bn to €7,186.9bn as matured bonds were not replaced by new ones US Same-Store Sales Down 0.4% Y/y in Week: Redbook - Bloomberg *Same-store sales, fell 0.4% in the July 22 week compared to a year earlier *MTD sales through July 22 fell 0.3%, that's pretty weak too (rate hikes biting, slowly but surely), Richmond Fed Manuf Index fell to -9 vs. -10 est. & -8 prior (rev down from -7) … new orders fell further into contraction; shipments declined , revenue ticked higher (but still in contraction); employment ticked higher into expansion Markets : - Equity markets 'up here' on very low volumes/loosing momentum perhaps.. risk premium falls to levels not seen in more than 20 years , BEWARE (#timeforahedgingtrade), as quite a few 'guidance' are softer, MST on AI is potentially BIG news, and so is AMZN >> imnplied vols pretty low if ever you wanted a #hedge - CROSSJPY's softer ahead of BoJ (now into position, run it ! #trailingstop and trade your gamma! etc.. .. FED and ECB ALL but priced in for long, EU data in particular but also US macro data softer... -Markets look a little too quiet for my liking Australia’s June quarter inflation falls to 6%, ABS reports | Australian economy | The Guardian Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB deleveraging continues. Ahead of this weeks meeting, CenBank shrank its balance sheet by €18.6bn to €7,186.9bn as matured bonds were not replaced by new ones. ECB's total assets are now equal to 53% of Eurozone GDP vs #Fed's 31%, #SNB's 121%, #BoJ's 129%. https://t.co/N7R0VaqYLj" / Twitter July 2023 euro area bank lending survey (europa.eu) doesn't bode well for growth over next 6-12months - hiking cycle impacting where it should - eventually (1) Post | Feed | LinkedIn good thread from El-Erian.... read comments below ! predicting recession on inversion is useless Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Looking ahead to #FOMC meeting this week, another rate hike would put “proxy fed funds rate” (which takes forward guidance and balance sheet operations into account) much closer to mid-2000 peak https://t.co/ycluc5iR2v" / Twitter Texas Instruments’ Lukewarm Forecast Indicates Slump Will Persist (yahoo.com) Microsoft shares fall after earnings report even as AI bet bears fruit | Microsoft | The Guardian Snap shares plunge more than 17% on weak forecast (cnbc.com) LVMH earnings: LVMH says luxury customers not shopping as much (cnbc.com) Rolls-Royce leaps as airline and defence demand lifts profits | Reuters Nigel Farage calls on entire NatWest board to go after Alison Rose quits | The Independent US charges British billionaire Joe Lewis with insider trading | Reuters USDJPY SUB 138jpy AND it will send a few alarm bells to the consensus short JPY postions out there EURJPY getting there - I'm sure you can do a better chart, but we might be onto something here

The key questions for the Fed: if the long-anticipated slowdown in inflation is finally here, will it be enough to satisfy policymakers that they’ve done enough to durably subdue price pressures even if the labor market doesn’t further weaken? >>> china pumping + looking crude, commodity markets it is not the time to be complacent about inflation... The fiscal-year-to-date federal deficit of $1.39 trillion has already surpassed last year’s full-year deficit of $1.375 trillio n/Thread U.S. Weighs Potential Deal With China on Fentanyl-WSJ Beijing has demanded the U.S. lift restrictions on a police forensics institute said by Washington to have facilitated human-rights abuses Total assets on Fed's balance sheet now decisively through low prior to banking stress in March; lowest since fall of 2021 Russian billionaire calls for ‘cowards’ in Moscow elite to oppose invasion Oleg Tinkov says decision to lift UK sanctions against him may encourage other businessmen to speak out So why did Musk rebrand twitter ? Thread below Germany Readies €20 Billion in aid to bolster chip output ..About 75% of the money is going to US’s Intel, Taiwan’s TSMC Spotify has announced that it will raise price s for its 200 million ad-free subscribers for the first time in over 10 years Israeli parliament passes key part of Netanyahu's divisive judicial overhaul plan. “We see the passage of part of the legal reform as unfortunate,” the Biden administration said of the move that has prompted mass protests NATO Convoys can protect Ukraine’s grain harvest from Putin . A naval plan that worked against the Iranian enemy in the 1980s can succeed against the Russian enemy today Chinese firm Catl to develop huge Bolivian lithium deposit Markets : Crude WTI 3months highs ( China throwing kitchen sink to kick start the economy, China “property easing” + stimulus ) + crude shortages Agricultural commodities on the rise again #DBA ETF chart below, rice, orange juice prices at ATH's, wheat etc Equity markets : JPM's Kalanovic and Dubravko Thread/chart below, note MS's Mike Wilson has thrown in the towel on his bear call as well (humm), ''still all looks pretty rosy'', though for whatever reason or timing, should not be a surprise if we see a decent correction from around current levels #HSI could and should react positively if US/China news for real, pretty important as market well 'short China' overall #KWEB FXLAND, if the chinese authorities are serious, they will continue to intervene in USDCNH near 7.20 area ‘We Were Wrong’: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Offers Stocks Mea Culpa (yahoo.com) Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The key questions for the Fed: if the long-anticipated slowdown in inflation is finally here, will it be enough to satisfy policymakers that they’ve done enough to durably subdue price pressures even if the labor market doesn’t further weaken? https://t.co/jar0QpCKzq" / Twitter Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/2 I think the FT is right. Beijing has listed all the things it wants to fix, including consumption, but in most cases without proposing how it will actually fix them. I suspect there is still a lot of disagreement among policymakers over what to do. https://t.co/taNqXw17le" / Twitter Indian Ban on Non-Basmati White Rice Exports Stokes Panic Buying and Prices' Spike | FastReveal >>> reminder, if you are going to panic, panic early! Russian billionaire calls for ‘cowards’ in Moscow elite to oppose invasion | Financial Times (ft.com) Robin Brooks on Twitter: "What's going on in German manufacturing is very bad. Headline manufacturing PMI (black) and forward-looking orders - inventories (blue) are worse than at the height of the energy shock in 2022. A sign that the energy shock is far from over and is weighing on "Standort" Germany... https://t.co/05WkOQF4OA" / Twitter Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) on Twitter: "Things you don't read on Twitter https://t.co/99popNaxxo" / Twitter surely not Elon ! although ''Worth noting that Musk is branding many of his companies around the letter X. SpaceX, the new xAI and now X'' Germany Readies €20 Billion in Aid to Bolster Chip Production - Bloomberg this sounds like a desperate decision.. Rhodes inferno must be wake-up call on global warming, says minister | Evening Standard Terrible stuff, not just for Brits! Mind you as some leave desperately, others arrive to go to their hotels in other parts of the island.. Israeli parliament passes key part of Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plan (nbcnews.com) CS hatte 24 Milliarden Dollar offen bei Archegos - Inside Paradeplatz Crazy levels of specs Archegos Probe Reveals Full Extent of CS Failure (finews.asia) Spotify raises premium subscription price for millions - BBC News 1st price increase in 10years (and they cutting staff) IBM wants to build a 100,000-qubit quantum computer | MIT Technology Review IBM wants to build a 100,000-qubit quantum computer..The company wants to make large-scale quantum computers a reality within just 10 years Seth Golden on Twitter: "JPM Kolanovic & Dubravko 🔸The recent rise in market cap concentration has been the steepest on record 🔸Rising short interest for AI stocks ⚠️ 🔸Hedge for a potential reversal in Concentration. 🔸More concentrated than TMT-Dotcom Bubble $SPX $QQQ $SPY $NDX $NVDA $DIA https://t.co/icWHisImld" / Twitter Chinese firm Catl to develop huge Bolivian lithium deposit - BBC News supply coming @DBA - agricultural commodity index