As expected, Powell rejects any idea that the inflation target would change in his Jackson Hole speech, "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target.". Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down, called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come >>> succeeded, on the '' he didn't want to rock the boat'', no clear guidance one way or another, data dependent IMHO, many commentors saying that the Fed is making a mistake in hiking rates too high and too fast etc (they may well be wrong eventually, for the record think 'high for longer' is right , no more 'how fast and how high' .... the real mistake was to stick to 'transitory inflation' for far too long and still printing, increasing money supply by about 50% in 2-3years and buying MBS in the middle of a bubbly housing market EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force Urs Rohner, the former chairman of the major Swiss bank served as chairman of Savoy Hotel Baur en Ville owned by Credit Suisse Saudi trade with China and India reached record of $175bn in 2022, it was barely $5bn in 2001, long-term geopolitics, BRICS+++ " GS index gamma is the shortest ever in their data set. GS estimate that dealers will need to sell -$2.5B worth of gamma per every 1% move lower (or vice versa) ."This is a market exacerbator, not a muting factor". But it of course works both ways.... China scrapped the last of its Covid travel requirement measures China's Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status."/Thread Evergrande stock plunged 90% on Monday, as it reopened for trading after 17months suspension, which (at least partly) explains the sudden decision for China to reduce tax on stocks trading by half ? and local markets on multi year lows, contrarians ? SNB total sight deposits week to 25th Aug CHF 471.4 bn vs CHF 476.2 bn prior Markets : Bonds initially sold-off a little during Powell speech, and pretty much closed unch USDollar slightly firm(er), not a whole lot in it ! Equity markets liked the light end of day bond rally off lows, not a whole lot in it either, technically we getting back into 'sell or hedge territories' - perhaps after Aug month-end flows. The China tax move is probably only worth a very short--term bounce. NVDA given up most of the 'earnings' blip Month-end flows to dominate early part of the week, which ends with NFP Powell says Fed 'prepared to raise rates further' to bring inflation down (yahoo.com) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "You can't make this up: The S&P 7, a handful of technology stocks, are now up an incredible 54% this year. 3 weeks ago, the S&P 7 was up a massive 70%. Meanwhile, the remaining S&P 493 is up just 4%. These same stocks have accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gain this… https://t.co/T6gwTDmT8q" / X (twitter.com) same olde point, nice chart for perspective Biden policies pushing Middle East closer to China and Russia, says US senator | Middle East Eye édition française How America's biggest retailers will use tech to catch retail theft (cnbc.com) The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org) EU Digital Services Act: Tech companies face a reckoning in Europe as new rules come into force (yahoo.com) How a U.S. steel shortage created a market bubble (cnbc.com) Ships wait at Asian ports as retailers struggle to shift excess stock (cnbc.com) Argentina is pushing international lending to its breaking point (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Wu Jinglian: "Using 'performance projects' and 'vanity projects' to promote rapid economic growth became the choice for some cadres and officials to 'beautify' their political achievements and enhance their status." @ZichenWanghere https://t.co/MS2HdHzKVE" / X (twitter.com) China Evergrande’s Stock Plunges 87% As Trading Resumes After 17 Months (forbes.com) Robin Brooks on X: "Argentina vs Turkey 1. Argentina and Turkey are at opposite ends of the planet, but have many bad things in common. Turkish Lira was kept artificially strong until the May 28 election, after which it collapsed (orange). Argentina's Peso collapsed after the Aug 13 primary (white). https://t.co/1PdGlosrRe" / X (twitter.com) Heineken sells off Russian beer business for €1 - BBC News Long been written off, suspect many foreign firms will have to do the same.. Urs Rohner Loses Prestigious Credit Suisse Mandate (finews.asia) "CS Schweiz wird integriert, ihr Name verschwindet" - Videos - Inside Paradeplatz How Ulez became a vigilante battleground | The Independent UK financial firms ‘may be lending over £174m a month to at-risk gamblers’ | Gambling | The Guardian How soaring cost of car insurance driving motorists to sell up | The Independent must admit... many young drivers seeing their ins up between 50 and 100%, yes, it's true Karl Rove hits Ramaswamy for ‘over-the-top’ debate performance that was ‘robotic’ | The Hill Long way to go Greek police arrest dozens for arson as EU’s largest-ever wildfires rage (msn.com) this is nuts NVIDIA - reversal off those highs on earnings, clearly no shareholder wants it to test much below 400bucks! or the end of May gap is at risk of being filled !

Jackson Hole meeting : all about the r*, all eyes and ears on J Powell who speaks at 1600 CET, Lagarde not until 2100 CET, for choice and since many of you asking, imho 'high for longer' is going to be the message (as opposed to systematically higher till something breaks..), wouldn't be shocked if Lagarde is a little 'dovish', after all these PMI sub 50.. WSJ-Timaraos's latest : The Fed's Jackson Hole conference sometimes gets treated as the Super Bowl of central banking when it might be better characterized as "nirvana for nerds" given the wonky paper discussions Atlanta Fed GDPnow for Q3 is 5.91% Fed's Harker : favoured remaining on hold for longer in two different interviews with MNI and CNBC yesterday Rosenblatt raised its price target on NVDA to a Wall Sreet high of $1,100 (from $800), and maintaining its buy rating. $1100 would put NVDA on par to MSFT! UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decad e. More than 4,000 operators become insolvent within a year as cost inflation and housebuilding slowdown bite TRY rallies as Turkey 'stuns' markets with the biggest rate hike in years!, the CB hiked by 750bps, USDTRY dropped from 27.5 to 25.5 approx, back to 26.50 TRY again JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right”, 'investing in the oil and gas complex is good for reducing CO2' Highly likely' Prigozhin is dead but no 'definitive proof, says UK defence ministry Markets : SPX500 - NQ ''reversal'' in many short-term minds and comments this morning, few realized that 100 PE on NVDA was a little too rich, see Thread below too ! After a spectacular move in NQ and NVDA this year... so all needs to be put in relative terms.. .slightly overhyped price action in 2023 IMHO, that huge beat : mostly 'priced in' USDollar slightly stronger, UST 10's 5bp higher to 4.25 again, 2y back to 5% all about the r* Copper, metals recovering last few days, PALL futures now have the largest net spec short position on record Didn't Get Invited to Fed's Mountain Retreat? Here's What to Watch (msn.com) MS : The title this year is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. While Fed Chairs have sometimes moved mkts at Jackson Hole, Seth Carpenter suspects Powell will not signal a major shift. Seth suspects he will try to keep a hawkish tone; reiterate commitment to 2 percent inflation; reinforce the “higher for longer” theme; but refrain from giving explicit near-term guidance . The title of the symposium suggests some discussion of the neutral rate of interest, also called r*. Conceptually, if the policy rate is above r*, then monetary policy is slowing the economy, and if the policy is below r*, it is stimulating the economy. More generally, r* should have implications for debt sustainability, the level of the yield curve, and other asset prices. But in the best of times, estimating r* is hard; in a post-Covid world, it is doubly so. The mkt has to pay attention, of course, because a shift in r* should imply a shift in the exp path for the policy rate and thereby the yield curve as a whole Jackson Hole may well showcase academic research suggesting that r* has risen - we think the Fed is done hiking, but we will only know after the fact if r* has risen Fed Latest: Harker Sees Enough Hikes, Rates Holding in 2023 (yahoo.com) Fukushima: China retaliates as Japan releases treated nuclear water - BBC News JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls for more investment in oil and gas: 'We aren't getting this one right' | Fox Business UK construction companies go under at fastest rate in a decade | Financial Times (ft.com) slow burn of higher rates AND government forcing repayment of covid loans... the big driver Nothing to do with Brexit...??.. Edwin Hayward on X: "More and more stories about problems caused by Brexit are beginning to creep into the RW press. In some cases, it's a flood rather than a trickle! (Long list. Please expand tweet.) All the "Brexit reality" stories below were published within the last month: Express - Labour…" / X (twitter.com) Bath air quality improves since introduction of clean air zone - BBC News I'm not an accountant..! so won't make any comment just watch the slightly 'overhyped' price action this year on #NVDA ... neither long nor short ! Samantha LaDuc on X: "SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝 CoreWeave: Is backed by $NVDA Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA $NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat $NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound…" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: ""“Obviously, we’re following it, but the size of the problem is not yet sufficiently clear,” Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said of China’s economic issues." https://t.co/069uZNol86 via @bpolitics" / X (twitter.com) Pakistan: Drone shows children trapped in cable car dangling over river canyon | World News | Sky News whaoo, watch ! amazing Brady Dougan's Questionable Russia Connection (finews.asia) Ukraine latest: 'Highly likely' Prigozhin is dead but no 'definitive proof', says UK defence ministry | World News | Sky News India and China agree to 'de-escalate' border tensions - BBC News Greece wildfires: 79 people arrested for arson - BBC News Madness, why would anyone do this.. Trump Ends X Hiatus With Mugshot and Call for Money (newsweek.com) need to raise a lot of cash to pay for those court appearances?.. made a complete mockery of the justice system? Reinventing the wheel (or the sail) can actually change an industry - CityAM have a great Friday and lovely weekend ahead Team PVM

Nvidia's blowout results are exciting analysts so much, one of them even said the AI chipmaker will be 'most important company to civilization' BRICS growing - Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are invited to join the BRICS WSJ-Timiraos : Last year, Jackson Hole was about the lessons of Volcker. But for the second part of the Fed's inflation fight, some former Fed officials say Greenspan might offer the template. The debate is slowly moving from "how high" to "how long" >>> ''high for longer'', next tightening can and should come from Fed balance-sheet reduction “My sense is he keeps it pretty brief,” BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder ''says on the outlook for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, later adding: “I think we’re basically at the end of this hiking cycle.” Russia offers to swap frozen assets with the west , that's the financial equivalent of a prisoner's exchange ! Yevgeny Prigozhin trod a dangerous tightrope - his apparent death proves no one is indispensable India is replacing Russia as a 21st-century space power . The Chandrayaan-3 Moon landing is the latest sign of the new geopolitics of space EU PMI all under 50 yesterday, UK much weaker and even the U.S much weaker, services running out of steam ! >>> stagflation and/or some sort of China deflationary bust ! though China trying to stop the rot and pumping Brazil's real, not the dollar , could be the solution to Argentina's currency turmoil, an economist says US workers demand at least $78K to start a new job , according to a NY Fed employment survey ECB QT continues , balance sheet shrank to €7,153bn, lowest level since Mar2021 The UK's steel exports to the European Union risk being hit with a climate surcharge. It's after Rishi Sunak's government made it cheaper for companies to emit carbon dioxide, potentially erecting another post-Brexit trade barrier with the EU UBS on Sullivan criticizing China for halting publication of economic data: "The US is not blameless either . Underfunding statistical agencies has contributed to a decline in US data quality — fewer than half the companies asked provide data for non-farm payrolls" Markets : UST 10y blow out to 4.35 on supply risk and ahead of JH, back to 4.20% - let's see what JPowell has to say, more a focus of 'high for longer' imho, not how high can we go USDCNH about 1pct off highs from last week, AUD attempts to rally (CHINA worries perhaps overdone in shot-term and various support legally thrown to the economy now), EURCHF got close to 0.9500 yesterday again Metals shining last few days again, GOLD, XAG, XPT, Copper etc all recovering (chart), industrial metals reacting to recent China moves to support economy NASDAQ : that's one of the more symmetrical move below the 50dma (chart - by he book) , the bears might resell this NVDA rip, pretty impressive though it has to be said ! all this ahead of Jackson Hole Nvidia's blowout results are exciting analysts so much, one of them even said the AI chipmaker will be 'most important company to civilization' (yahoo.com) Remember that Druckenmiller interview..he and many others had a good day yesterday! FX Update: Jackson Hole scenarios | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: US treasury yields have cranked higher, with the long end of the US yield curve even posting new decade-plus highs in yields. The JPY is playing its usual hyper-sensitive role to yield developments, with EURJPY even posting a new post-2008 high today before retreating sharply today as bonds found a bid. But the yield and yen moves are merely a distraction ahead of a possibly critical message from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday. American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job (cnbc.com) TIPS Have Erased Most of 2023 Gains; 30-Year TIPS Auction on Thursday Key Test - Bloomberg 20y auction went 'ok' last night Emerging markets group BRICS invites 6 new members, including Saudi Arabia and Iran (cnbc.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Last year, Jackson Hole was about the lessons of Volcker. But for the second part of the Fed's inflation fight, some former Fed officials say Greenspan might offer the template. The debate is slowly moving from "how high" to "how long" https://t.co/1ip1wsadcl" / X (twitter.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "In case you missed it: #ECB QT continues w/balance sheet shrank to €7,153bn, lowest level since Mar2021. Total assets now equal to 53% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 30%, BoE's 33% and BoJ's 126%. https://t.co/ykK4s9AOrT" / X (twitter.com) Brazil's Real, Not USD, May Be the Answer to Argentina FX Woes: Economist (businessinsider.com) India is replacing Russia as a 21st-century space power (qz.com) Shareholders of Smaller Chinese Banks Hike Stakes to Stem Risk (yicaiglobal.com) Twelve small and mid-sized Chinese banks have been given the go-ahead to make changes in their shareholders’ stakes this month to fortify risk management. Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low as interest rates soar (cnbc.com) Strapped For Cash, More Americans Are Making Early Withdrawals From Their Retirement Savings (forbes.com) British Museum bosses first alerted to thefts in 2021 - BBC News strewth! UK-India trade talks enter 'final, trickier' stage - government sources - BBC News ''we are 95% done...the last 5% is always harder than the first 95%..'' We need a strategy to stop the City’s slow puncture (msn.com) Russia's VTB open to swaps as it seeks to reclaim $10 bln in frozen assets | Reuters Yevgeny Prigozhin trod a dangerous tightrope - his apparent death proves no one is indispensable | World News | Sky News all sorts of conspiracy theory out there, once the 'coup' failed, his days were counted imho Greece investigating whether organised arson groups to blame for deadly wildfires | World News | Sky News NASDAQ Copper prices on the rise again it seems, though broadly speaking pretty rangy really

BRICS summit 2023 - Day 2 >>> FT- ' Bridges with everyone’: how Saudi Arabia and UAE are positioning themselves for power, “The fundamental strategic dilemma for them remains that their security is in the west, their energy politics is with Russia and their prosperity is increasingly with China and the rest of Asia, they sell oil globally.. T oday's 20-year US Treasury notes and Thursday’s 30-year TIPS auctions might be pivotal ahead of Jackson Hole on Friday, banks softer yesterday on S&P downgrade, Citi on lows, though UBS has had a great time since that CS takeover, all eyes and ears on NVDA tonight FED's Barkin : consumer spending, economic strength make it possible U.S economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools, if inflation remains high and demand gives 'no signal' it is likely to drop, that would require tighter monetary policy Eurozone services PMI flash 48.3 (forecasts 50.5..) - weaker than expected, ECB hike expectations softer, euro softer. UK economy also softer, as per PMI surveys, pretty significant downturn down to 47.9 (rates biting hard..) Goldman says oil stock draws cut bearish risk to Brent price MACY'S: ".. “we experienced an increased rate of delinquencies .. the speed at which the increase occurred for us and the broader credit card industry since our first quarter earnings call was faster than planned. .. We're working closely with our bank partner Citibank to mitigate the rising bad debts by adjusting underwriting strategies." BASF signs long-term LNG deal with Cheniere of the U S. German companies are rushing to ink agreements with American exporters after the country abandoned Russian gas U.S existing home sales slide to lowest rate since 2010 Markets : EURO lower, EURJPY notably topped out again 158+ area, EURUSD sub 1.0850 key support area of late, as market 'pares ECB wagers' on Sep hike , now 50/50 for the 25bps hike and EURCHF nearer to .9500, IMHO ECB could very well pause now in Sep ! GBPUSD best not break below 1.2600 area for the rare £ bulls out there ! Equity markets awaiting NVDA after the bell today, main indices, sentiment weak but.. the UST auctions will matter over next few days ahead of Jackson Hole, there has been big anticipation last 10days... slight recovery in bond prices helping Eq Crude struggling to hold $80+ WTI Metals showing a little big of life again off last week's lows ‘Bridges with everyone’: how Saudi Arabia and UAE are positioning themselves for power | Financial Times (ft.com) BIG long-term geopolitical 'change', BRICS etc etc - must read >>“We will come to you first, but if you don’t deliver we will go elsewhere” -UAE/Saudi to US Gulf nations are reconsidering their ties with US & are forging new alliances in Asia, with Russia countering US in the Gulf, after all they sell OIL globally... Treasury Market Selloff Means 6% Yield ‘Isn’t a Crazy Number’ - Bloomberg “At what point does the economy effectively break under the weight of real rates? I don’t think we’re quite there yet…But I still think the market’s ignoring a lot of this interest-rate pass-through at their own peril.” Who the heck is buying so many Nvidia GPU’s? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) LIVE BLOG: BRICS Summit 2023 Day 2 - Brazilian President Lula da Silva meets with ANC and Thabo Mbeki on sidelines of summit (msn.com) US treasury auctions will test bond markets ahead of Jackson Hole | Saxo Group (home.saxo) S&P downgrades five US banks following Moody’s lead (msn.com) all about funding costs, less profitable etc Powell in a Tight Spot as Policymakers Converge on Jackson Hole (finews.asia) Public firms could be allowed to extract £50bn from staff pension schemes in bid to boost investment (cityam.com) this is not a good idea Nvidia stock hype is out of control, meaning investors may be overlooking this one key risk (yahoo.com) not trying to knock it ! but it has become a must watch meme stock these days, we shall know more tonight after the bell Arm’s IPO filing is riddled with anxieties over China (qz.com) Arm expects to continue recording lower royalty revenues in the Chinese market Swiss watch exports post first monthly decline in two years - SWI swissinfo.ch More Trouble Ahead for the Euro Zone’s Two Biggest Economies - Bloomberg Frederik Ducrozet on X: "🇪🇺 Four takeaways from euro area PMIs. 1. Services sector contraction led by Germany, with early signs of labour market weakening. A sign that monetary policy transmission is working. https://t.co/cdQfRQlBce" / X (twitter.com) PMIs: UK economy slips hard in August as recession warning lights flash - CityAM Goldman says oil stock draws cut bearish risk to Brent price | Reuters Homes more affordable but borrowers stretched by rising mortgage costs - CityAM Hollywood strikes: 'A lose-lose situation' as fears mount over $4 billion economic hit (yahoo.com) Trump attorney Jenna Ellis asks why MAGA PAC isn’t paying for the defense of her, others in Georgia case | The Hill going to be a lot of fun watching all this ! BASF signs long-term LNG deal with Cheniere of the US | Financial Times Pakistan cable car: Videos of extraordinary rescues caught on camera - BBC News Four moments reveal how quickly Hilary floodwater moved - BBC News fast moving! US Existing-Home Sales Slide on Higher Rates, Lean Inventory (yahoo.com) GBPUSD best not break sub 1.2600 area or the few £ bulls left out there will give up ! Jackson Hole and US auctions in the mix though

BRICS meeting bombshell would is Saudi Arabia joined in , the market will notice if they did, if not the whole BRUCS new currency story is just a little story that makes media talk... Ieven if they joined they would still play both sides (West and BRICS) not to upset anyone.. >>> "If we expand BRICS to account for a similar portion of world GDP as the G7, then our collective voice in the world will grow stronger." China official Given the high level of govt debt in the US and others, investors are demanding higher compensation for the risk >>> sounds pretty reasonable ! was always going to be the case once QE finished let alone QT starting, U.S Debt getting pretty expensive , US 10y REAL yield exceeds 2%, highest since 2009 J Powell's message on Friday is most likely to be 'balanced', that is perhaps what many wish, the risk is he talks and acknowledges and sort of gives the ok to 'the' new normal higher for longer-term yields...'' something that has grown in Mr Market's mind last 10days or so with the bond move in the long-end The vice chair of the FOMC recently made quite clear he doesn't think r* has shifted up / Thread from Timiraos below UK property sellers cut asking prices at sharpest pace this year (good news!) German central bank sees the economy stagnating again in the 3rd quarter - AP HSBC just raised NVDA target to $780, highest on the street, earlier in the year, HSBC had the only 'sell rating' and lowest target at $136 Wild image of Chinese EV graveyard Goldman Sachs weighs in on the trajectory of the USD/JPY currency pair, focusing on its correlation with US yields and the potential risks and factors influencing its direction Beijing called Joe Biden's summit with the leaders of South Korea and Japan an "attempt to sow discord" among the Asian nations , claimed the group "smeared and attacked China" on things like Taiwan situation BOJ's Ueda says explained to PM Kishida July tweak to yield control SoftBank's semiconductor unit Arm filed for what is set to be the year’s largest US IPO, a 32y old company.. Moody's is downgrading the credit ratings of 10 small- to mid-sized banks , citing growing financial risks and strains that could erode their profitability. The credit ratings agency also warned it is watching some of the nation's biggest lenders for potential downgrades From Bloomberg: “US 10-year TIPS yields pushed at the 2% level Monday, a psychological barrier not seen since 2009. And it’s not alone. In country after country, inflation-linked bond yields are climbing to new highs .” As to why, the drivers being cited — and no one knows for sure — go from the benign to those implying headwinds for the economy, markets and policies American Airlines pilots ratify a new contract that includes big pay raises and bonuses Pilots at American Airlines have approved a new contract that will raise their pay more than 40% over four years!.. it's the same in many places, very visible to most, get into the public eye and others want the same, naturally, hard not to call it wage spiral! Markets : Equity markets breathed a little from oversold short-term levels, Banks not doing well, in fact Citi closed on lowest levels of 2023, same low levels than the SVB mid March lows, regional bank ETF is basically flat since the SVB blow-up, NVDA rallied strongly ahead of earnings tomorrow after the bell ! TSLA also run up nicely. USD stable to slightly higher, mainly USDJPY., CROSSJPY higher on higher yields globally Bonds, duration hit again ahead of JacksonHole Friday >>> not only is the 10yr UST yield at a 15y highs, but at slightly over 3years, it is also the longest correction of any since the early 80s bond bull market began Moody's downgrades banks over risks. Here are the 10 impacted. (yahoo.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell was reluctant to express a firm view about the level of longer-run interest rates during this exchange on Capitol Hill two months ago. "It's really hard to know" if rates will settle at a higher level than before the pandemic. https://t.co/S8iTvMDeaf" / X (twitter.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "This anticipation doesn't square much (at all?) with recent Fed communications: 1) The vice chair of the FOMC recently made quite clear he doesn't think r* has shifted up. Williams, 5/19/23: "There's no evidence that the era of very low natural rates of interest has ended..." https://t.co/P7OqURYCTm" / X (twitter.com) If not this, then why ? supply IMHO, although to be honest it isn't really new... Goldman Sachs: Assessing the upward trajectory of USD/JPY and its outlook | Forexlive BOJ's Ueda says explained to PM Kishida July tweak to yield control - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) >>> because CB's are totally independent from politics ? A.I. could affect many white-collar, high-paid jobs (cnbc.com) NVDA didn't care yesterday on the HSBC rerating! How Nvidia Built a Competitive Moat Around A.I. Chips - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Global semiconductor investment dips for first time in 4 years - Nikkei Asia Bloomberg TV on X: "Why isn't the Chinese Communist Party doing more to support the economy right now? Read The Big Take: https://t.co/1tMgr1pueD https://t.co/Eh63A9G0TF" / X (twitter.com) well said China’s Abandoned Electric Cars Pile Up After EV Boom Fueled by Subsidies (bloomberg.com) why??!? Finland Bankruptcy Growth Hits Construction, Services - Bloomberg From Finland to the U.S, UK or Germany to China - it's all a very similar script 'Mass killings': Hundreds of migrants killed by Saudi Arabian border guards, human rights group says | ITV News Wagner making ‘Africa even more free’, says Prigozhin in first post-rebellion video | Yevgeny Prigozhin | The Guardian Elon Musk admits X ‘may fail’ after glitch deletes Twitter photos | Twitter | The Guardian what are we going to do without ....twitter! German central bank sees the economy stagnating again in the 3rd quarter | AP News Led By Donkeys on X: "Sit back for 3 mins and let @GavinEsler take you through the water privatisation scandal https://t.co/mN6G23DEoY" / X (twitter.com) what a disgrace this all has been! American Airlines pilots ratify a new contract that includes big pay raises and bonuses - ABC News (go.com)

Week ahead, NVDA reports adn FED meets ECB and others in Jackson Hole >> The premise: Long-term interest rates (may) have shifted higher post-pandemic, yet the Fed has not officially acknowledged this shift, this could be coming this week, IMHO he will try to push back against rate cut expectations in 2024 - close call though, BoAML, JPM, GS all hvae bit of a diff view >>> otherwise existing home sales, US services PMI, new homes, durable goods during week >>> perhaps the most overlooked US data last week was a Philly Fed rebounding materially , is manufacturing sector (thus inflation) rising from the abyss ? The ECB is set to send a letter of complaint to the Italian government about a 40% windfall tax on extra profits announced in a surprise move 2 weeks ago, Corriere della Sera reports BofA's Hartnett calls last week's China data "shocking" and warned of a credit event that would crash markets and REQUIRE a coordinated response". The Russian space agency has revealed its Luna-25 spacecraft has crashed into the moon "We’ve spent more than a decade trying to avoid a recession by propping things up with near free money, but little good has it done us" / Times article US yields keep rising as international demand fades China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over . What Comes Next? The economic model that took the country from poverty to great-power status seems broken, and everywhere are signs of distress/WSJ, over the weekend : banks pushed to support the economy: China again pushed banks to support the flagging economy with increased lending and urged adjustment and policy optimization for home mortgages, the PBOC said. Beijing also plans to allow local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($206 billion) of special bonds to help repay debt, Caixin reported. Banks are set to cut their key lending rates further, and cut rates less than what markets expected today (thus not helping markets).... "Zombification" is increasing among property developers in China China urges BRICS to become geopolitical rival to G7 OPEC is now producing as much oil per day as they did in 2009. Except, global demand is up over 20% since then A major reason for German weakness, the FT notes, "is the global downturn in manufacturing , which hits Germany disproportionately hard as the sector contributes a fifth of its overall output — almost double the level of the US, France and the UK." FT- Interesting article about Ecuador's dollarization experience . Jácome notes that "dollarisation does not necessarily imply fiscal discipline", and later discusses "the favourable international environment" for Ecuador during this period/Thread Brazil develops tropical wheat Is the AI boom already over? Generative AI tools are generating less interest than just a few months ago Germany's PPI decreased to -1.10% in July, much lower than than consensus -0.2%, YoY, PPI have dropped 6% in July of 2023. Consensus of-5.1%, welcome but expected news Hilary is the first tropic storm to hit Southern California in 84 years Markets : Equity markets : seasonal weakness on higher vol, triggered by bond volatility, higher for longer yields, Jackson Hole comes at a pretty pivotal times for markets MSCI China : most closely tracked Chinese Eq benchmarks close to setting new 2023 low 2 weeks around Jackson Hole can bring some big swings in markets USDollar firmer in most parts, sitting at pretty critical levels/resistance, hasn't react much to recent more in UST yields higher, delayed reaction? Bonds, duration, supply, QT and so on the story still - Bridgewater interview below Nvidia reports earnings, Fed gathers in Jackson Hole: What to know this week (yahoo.com) Is the ChatGPT and Bing AI boom already over? - Vox Can Germany fix its economy? | Financial Times (ft.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 Interesting article about Ecuador's dollarization experience. Jácome notes that "dollarisation does not necessarily imply fiscal discipline", and later discusses "the favourable international environment" for Ecuador during this period. https://t.co/IEutAOiv3y" / X (twitter.com) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🌎 🇺🇸 US yields keep rising as international demand fades ⬇ 1- 🇨🇳 #China cuts US Treasury holdings to 14-year (chart from SCMP) 2- 🇸🇦 #Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries fell to the lowest level in more than six year (chart from Bloomberg) 3 - 🇯🇵 As Japanese long-term… https://t.co/qPNf6sXjjF" / X (twitter.com) QE Infinity on X: "Fascinating listen. There is essentially a massive margin call on real estate developers trying to rollover CRE debt. Meaning you can’t rollover debt rn without supplying huge amounts collateral. Many of these firms aren’t going to have the money to do this. Ugly https://t.co/iRXOx0QsAK" / X (twitter.com) Warren Buffett on LTCM: "We were getting calls on Sunday from people that had portfolios in trouble… You may not get the chance very often, but any calls on Sunday, you’re probably going to make money on... All you have to do is make sure you’re the callee and not the caller." We've eluded to it for a while, debt issue, debt spiral, treasury issuance, QT and so on, the whole 'liquidity' issue put a lot more eloquently in this 20mis podcast, its from early Aug, explains price actions this month.. and few cracks appearing.. but nonetheless worth a listen What Ever Happened to the Liquidity Hole? - YouTube bridgewater's Greg Jensen Only a brutal Darwinian process can reset Britain’s economy (telegraph.co.uk) These 6 shocking twists show just how bad China's economy is right now, says Bank of America | Business Insider India China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (msn.com) Evergrande shows China property 'zombification': 5 things to know - Nikkei Asia Spanish officials says wildfire on Tenerife was started deliberately | ITV News Canada wildfires: At least 30,000 households in British Columbia told to evacuate - BBC News Hilary: California braces for first tropical storm in 84 years as Mexico reels from its impact | World News | Sky News Lithium to niobium, export ban on 4 critical new energy metals on the table (business-standard.com) Russia’s first lunar mission in 47 years fails as spacecraft crashes into the moon | Evening Standard and India's Chandrayaan-3 mission will try to put a robot on the Moon (qz.com) Russia Sues Oligarch Melnichenko, Aims to Seize One of His Companies (businessinsider.com) Govt imposes 40% duty on onion exports to improve local supplies | India News - The Indian Express Cargill chartered ship sets sail to test wind power at sea | Reuters Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years | Czapp Vote blue, go green? A climate takeover of the Conservatives is an unlikely feat - CityAM The British Art Scene Feels Brexit Bite (politicshome.com) brexit fail(s) Michelin star London restaurant to close as MasterChef star blames Brexit - MyLondon ‘It all disappeared with Brexit’: Craft beer boom ends as more than 100 UK firms go bust | Beer | The Guardian Mass panic over energy, yet we give up our food security without a murmur (thetimes.co.uk) For the first time in modern history, Britain is no longer manufacturing the fertilisers which keep us all alive. Yet no-one even seems to have noticed.. Will Hurd on candidates defending Trump: ‘Kissing his butt is not going to help you’ | The Hill and Is Trump going down? (prospectmagazine.co.uk) SPX500 - trend from March broken - might well bounce a bit from here - market in 'sell the rally-reduce risk' mood - all about data, China, Jackson Hole

The sceptical case on generative AI . Hype is huge around the technology, but some uncomfortable truths are also being raised-FT (it's the view of one, nonetheless a few good points worth noting) Bitcoin (and others) plunged Thursday night on news that Elon Musk's SpaceX has sold all its holdings of the cryptocurrency Embattled developer China Evergrande Group has filed for bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises, as anxiety grows over China's worsening property crisis and a weakening economy + Dalio article : China needs to engineer a beautiful deleveraging Powell will keep his options open at Jackson Hole , data dependent (currently pretty strong!) U.S : More than a third of the nation’s bridges are in need of repair, and over 43,000 are in poor condition and classified as “structurally deficient ,” according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association Norway hiked 25 bps move to 4.00% . Another hike is expected in Sep As per BoAML survey, most Fund Managers expect (have been expecting) long-term rates to fall, and yet, 10y UST is now higher and its previous peak last year, reaching a 16y high, Real yields on US 10-year treasuries are well above the 2018 high and nearing 2%. We are now at 2009 levels Japan core-core CPI data comes in above 4% again, hits 4.3% in July Texas power prices surged 6,000 %, climbing toward the $5,000 price cap, leading the state grid to ask consumers to voluntary cut energy usage Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval of all necessary third-party transfer requests of F-16s to Ukraine so that Ukraine will get F-16s when the pilots are trained Markets : Bonds breaking lower will break equities, until equity markets break to save bonds.... , IF..TREASURIES don't rally properly on risk.off days, then it's a real problem for markets BTC and other coins hammered on Mus k (does he need funding?), a great twist again UST's long-end been selling off hard, though if/when things break in equity on some sort of 'credit event', then they will rally again in short.term - wild times ahead Bond volatility is slowly spreading in other parts of the markets If some sort fo credit event happens, JPY will do well, it's oversold, USDJPY & CROSSJPY's will correct lower. JPN inflation still pretty firm! and we had a JGB20y auction failure this week too Bitcoin Dives: Elon Musk's SpaceX News Sends Cryptocurrency Tumbling | Investor's Business Daily (investors.com) as.."Tesla’s deliveries in China last month hit a six-month low, with around 31,000 cars sold locally, even as overall sales of battery-powered cars grew more than 30%. In comparison, Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 230,000 vehicles in July." SpaceX reported a profit in the first quarter, WSJ says (cnbc.com) selling coins? Also, Coinbase has made a statement saying its systems are experiencing issues and they are working on a fix. Say that funds remain secure The parallel worlds of green transformation | Saxo Group (home.saxo) The sceptical case on generative AI | Financial Times (ft.com) Why U.S. bridges are in such bad shape (cnbc.com) that's a lot of infrastructure work to go! Mortgage rates top 7%, hitting 21-year high (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 It may seem like terrible luck and amazing coincidence that so many things are going wrong in the Chinese economy at the same time, but of course it is not coincidence at all. This is how systemic imbalances work themselves out. https://t.co/k0iulJZ89T" / X (twitter.com) China Needs to Engineer a Beautiful Deleveraging | LinkedIn China's Economic Model Is 'Washed up on the Beach': Veteran Investor (businessinsider.com) The German economy: from European leader to laggard (economist.com) China, Russia, energy policy.. what else.. Restructuring at UBS Headquarters Has Begun (finews.asia) Evergrande seeks US court nod for $32 billion debt overhaul, as China economic fears mount - SWI swissinfo.ch Texas Power Prices Surge 6,000% as Grid Calls for Conservation (yahoo.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) PiQ on X: "🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 𝗨𝗦 𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗦 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗙-𝟭𝟲𝗦 𝗧𝗢 𝗨𝗞𝗥𝗔𝗜𝗡𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝗗𝗘𝗡𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗡𝗘𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗟𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗦 Full Story → https://t.co/pV7e0fuwJQ Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval… https://t.co/KvBjb1nlPR" / X (twitter.com) 'Apocalypse' selling of Adyen shares spooks investors (msn.com) brutal ! Adyen’s $20 Billion Wipeout Caught Almost Everyone by Surprise. Neither analysts nor short sellers were ready for stock’s dive Slowest sales growth since 2018 IPO sent shares into tailspinBy Paul Jarvis and Lisa Pham (Bloomberg) -- Almost no-one saw Adyen NV’s €18 billion ($20 billion) share plunge coming. Prior to Thursday’s 39% drop, the majority of analysts had a buy or equivalent rating. And of the four out of 35 tracked by Bloomberg that had a sell, even Citigroup Inc.’s Street-low target of €1,050 was made to look optimistic. Adyen shares closed at €898.4 in Amsterdam. Sunak commits to triple lock hinting pensions could rise by eight per cent (cityam.com) BBC Sport on X: "Legendary broadcaster Sir Michael Parkinson has died at the age of 88. Of the many incredible guests he interviewed over the years, he said boxer Muhammad Ali was his favourite. Here's a clip from one of those memorable interviews from our @BBCArchive https://t.co/3LaC7ckoBV" / X (twitter.com) Ulez: More than 300 cameras damaged or stolen in four months - BBC News when gentle folks have to pay hard cash it gets tricky. New Zealand has pushed back the start of taxes on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions to give farmers more time to adjust to the requirements Women's World Cup final: 'We wouldn't think twice for the men' so open pubs early for Lionesses, councils urged (cityam.com) quite! US Hit by Record Billion-Dollar Disasters Even Before Maui Fire - Bloomberg Canada wildfire: Yellowknife evacuees turned away from full flights - BBC News India: At least 72 people killed in flash floods and landslides triggered by torrential rain in Himalayan region | World News | Sky News good grief Gotthard Base Tunnel: World’s longest rail tunnel to close for months (cnbc.com) That's a bummer for those travelling north-south regularly Gen Z, millennial couples say marriage too expensive in this economy (cnbc.com) Warren Buffett donates $27 million Berkshire stock (yahoo.com) Former Watergate attorney makes case for cameras in courtroom for Trump Jan. 6 trial | The Hill that would-will be fun to watch ! DAX here - but as stated above many similar patterns in major equity indices have a great weekend

FED minutes : hawkish >>> no wonder with such strong data , Atlanta Fed GDPNow near 5.8% ! for Q3 GDP (even if it will probably come down some - hopefully!), retail sales and so on, U.S macro remains very strong - China macro pretty poor to say the least, stormy times ahead, check technical picture below from Saxo and Bridgewater ! Zhongrong International Trust Co. missed payments on dozens of products and has no immediate plan to make clients whole, indicating troubles at the embattled Chinese shadow bank are deeper than previously known, China Latest: Country Garden warned of "major uncertainties" in bond redemption and said trading of some local notes will remain halted Many economists willing to ignore Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and now (quite possible) banks including JPM . >>> IMHO, the circumstances are quite different from the 2011 scenario when S&P downgraded the U.S., in 2023, the fiscal situation is far worse and much more worrisome “It’s the tendency for rates to be higher that I think most investors are missing,” PGIM's Greg Peters. “I don’t think investors have accepted that reality,” nor digested the fact that policymakers cannot “easily and readily cut rates” as they once did The head of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has expressed concern that political resistance to climate and environmental measures is spreading from the US to the UK and China abandons Paris agreement, making U.S. (and others..) efforts painful and pointless Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries has fallen 41% since early 2020 , to the lowest level in more than six years. China sold $11.3 billion of the debt in June to bring its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since mid-2009 - Vietnamese EV maker VinFast is now worth more than Ford and GM after Nasdaq debut RICO : The fourth criminal prosecution of former President Trump makes use of a law most commonly associated with organized crime Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are ready and waiting for stocks to plunge and bargains to pop up, Robert Kiyosaki says >>> think we can easily agree on a 10pct correction in the near future Tesla made its second round of price cuts in China this wee k, further fueling concerns of reigniting a price war UK launches £1 billion fintech fund to compete with Silicon Valley Coinbase gets green light to let US investors trade crypto futures >>> should not change odds of spot BTC, but shows coinbase doing the right thing with regs to help the cause RBNZ leave rates unchanged but signal no cuts until 2025 Markets : SPX500 closed 2days in a row now below the 50dma (4472), firs time since late March 2023, given positioning, sell rallies as long as we stay below said levels BIG tech update below, IMHO right now we are possibly on the cusp of a few bigger things to happen over next few weeks, September looms, beware stormy weather ahead >>> UST yields-duration, USD, EMGFX, Nasdaq, as usual all the same ish trade, do not underestimate, change of momentum now that say SPX500 trades below 50dma (if we make a new lows most days etc..as we did again last night), NQ same picture, FANGS+ etc etc see techs below USD stays bid together with duration selling off still, higher yields, UST 10's to 5% ? that's the risk over next few months/weeks, September etc 20230821_E-CATALOGUE_Tjukurpa-Kutjara-Kiritji-Yankaltjunku-Two-Stories_LR_P.pdf (redotgallery.com) New Warakurna Exhibition - truly brilliant stuff - exhibition by my good friend GP - feel free to get in touch with him direct Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update | Saxo Group (home.saxo) and Technical analysis DAX40 AEX25 BEL20 CAC40 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) - main points below S&P 500. Downtrend. Broken below key support at 4,455. Likely to drop below 4,400. Next support at 4,340 Nasdaq 100 Downtrend . Support at 14,750 HangSeng bearish. Testing support at 18343. Next support at 18,052 DAX Bearish. Rejected at 16K. Likely to drop to 15,482 support area AEX25 Bearish. Support at 748 CAC40 Key support at 7,251. If broken downtrend to 7,100 EURUSD Likely to be range bound between 1.0833 and 1.1065 Dollar Index rejected at key resistance at 103.28 GBPUSD is struggling for upside momentum USDJPY broken resistance at 145. Next is 148. Could form top pattern EURJPY above strong resist at 158. Likely to move to 160.60 AUDUSD forming bottom and reversal pattern Gold XAUUSD Close to testing June low at 1,892. RSI bearish Silver XAGUSD testing support at around 22.15 Copper below 370. Next support at 360-356 Brent rejected at resistance at 88.20. Expect correction down to around 83 Dutch Gas uptrend. US 10-year uptrend. Could move to 2022 peak at 4.32 CTA : this is no longer a "buy the dip" market 1. "SPX is currently through GS short term CTA threshold trigger for the first time since May 24th and below the S&P500 50-day moving average. There has been a clear shift in sentiment over the past few weeks..." 2."Investors have shifted their trading behavior from a BTD “Buy the dip” market to STR “Sell the Rally” market. This is a new change in tone and sentiment. This is something that I have not said often..." (Scott Rubner) - confirmed! 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors digest Fed meeting minutes (msn.com) Norway oil fund chief attacks UK backlash against green measures | Financial Times (ft.com) China Abandons Paris Agreement, Making U.S. Efforts Painful and Pointless | The Heritage Foundation good grief China's Zhongrong Misses Payments as Fallout Spreads (yahoo.com) Protestors Hit Zhongrong Office Over Missed Payments (finews.asia) Bond Yields Are Moving Higher on Growth, Not Just Inflation, PGIM Says - Bloomberg What Ever Happened to the Liquidity Hole? (bridgewater.com) Nothing 'really' new for those following closely, couple of weeks old, but nonetheless pretty interesting take before and after Buffett and Burry Are Waiting for a Stock Market Crash: Kiyosaki (businessinsider.com) Bank of Ireland apologises for IT blunder that saw extra money appear in some bank accounts – The Irish Times the police had to stand in front of cash machines to stop folks taking cash out :-) UBS: was es braucht, damit die Schweiz die Grossbank nie retten muss (nzz.ch) Ecuador election: 'I'm wearing a bulletproof vest 24 hours a day' - BBC News what a life Lyft earnings 'a step in the right direction,' but the existential crisis is far from over (yahoo.com) Coinbase gets green light to let US investors trade crypto futures (yahoo.com) Saudi Arabia's Hoard of US Treasuries at Six-Year Low in Embrace of Risk - Bloomberg EV maker VinFast is now worth more than the likes of Ford and GM (cnbc.com) Thousands of World War Two aerial photos open to public for first time | UK News | Sky News What is Rico? Georgia uses racketeering law to charge Donald Trump | Georgia | The Guardian Pershore man's clifftop sheep rescue makes global headlines - BBC News good man! UK launches £1 billion fintech growth fund to compete with US (cnbc.com) EURUSD 1.05 ?

Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of US banks including JP Morgan Chase Steen/Saxo's latest : stagflation light ahead : This will mean that the US will experience a period of high inflation and slow economic growth. This will be a difficult period for the US economy, but it is something that we believe is unavoidable. So it's time for policy makers to be afraid of the answers to their questions: Debt is not free, economies do not grow from lack of productivity, and you cannot just leave voters and economic agents behind while the government's hand increases. This coming stagflation will be a positive step towards resetting the economy to focus on the real challenges: better, cleaner energy, a bigger real economy, and much better education and social policies' GSAM indicating their preference for bonds over equities right now : “ ... we have seen a lot of volatility when it comes to inflation. But that also creates the opportunity to buy bonds at a real rate that we haven’t seen in well over a decade” As China announces that it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment data (because the rate is very high lol), a reminder that they have been steadily publishing fewer and fewer economic indicators in recent years as the data has become less rosy J.P. Morgan raises the 2023 global emerging market corporate high yield default forecast to 9.7% from 6% , says China property expected to account for nearly 40% of 2023’s corporate default volumes, followed by 35% from Russia and 12% from Brazil Investors are the least bearish since February 2022 in the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, with cash levels plunging from 5.3% to 4.8% U.S retails : 3mos annualized change up to +7% in August (best since Oct 2022) , pretty strong!, however U.S NAHB housing market index much weaker at 50.0 (forecast was 56 and prev 56) Fed President Neel Kashkari remained hawkish, emphasizing data dependence. He acknowledged the most recent inflation reports as positive, however he is still not convinced inflation is on the path to 2% >>> Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees 3Q growth at 5.0% up from 4.1% last, not going to pause on this then + retail sales above RBA minutes : slight bias towards holding steady at next meeting - close call. Reserve Bank of New Zealand leave cash rate unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected Canada inflation jumped (back) to 3.3% in July up from 2.8% in June >>> important move back up given that BoC was one of the first to pause in Jan, only to restart due to inflation, implication/influence Fed talks ? Russian court bans UBS, Credit Suisse from subsidiary disposals Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? / Thread Markets : Real yields on 10-year Treasuries on 2009 highs +1.85% (from -1.1% in early 2022), China Holdings of US Treasuries drop to lowest level since 2009 , USDCNH 7.32 , grinding higher, a deval is very dangerous from here, in term of sentiment in China, gives incentive to bypass capital controls, hence PBOC intervening, trying to keep the trade balance in check, stop a spiral down.. >>> the whole chinese chess board of a real estate is creating a few cracks in a few EMG areas, so we need to clearly beware (globally) if USDCNH had a decent push up GOLD pretty key levels around here 200dma , XAGUSD 22.60 The FANG+ index retested its Q4 2021 highs almost perfectly and seems to have formed a double top - given concentration of risk, S&P7's etc - must keep an eye on USDollar on the cusp of a decent move up overall, vs EMG, USDJPY (expectations BoJ stops it 145-148 area..), EURUSD woul drequire weekly close below 1.0875 probably, CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area (chart) Stagflation could bring a short-term uptrend in the US Dollar | Saxo (home.saxo) UK inflation falls to 6.8% in year to July - BBC News Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks (cnbc.com) Goldman sees the best opportunity in bonds in a decade. How to play it (cnbc.com) Fill your boots! Fed rate cuts are coming in Q2 2024, Goldman Sachs says (yahoo.com) Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market (yahoo.com) China property stocks tumble, led by Country Garden, Longfor, Sunac (cnbc.com) John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter: "As China announces that it will no longer be publishing youth unemployment data (because the rate is very high lol), a reminder that they have been steadily publishing fewer and fewer economic indicators in recent years as the data has become less rosy https://t.co/tdMDWhPeOA https://t.co/ZuE6p6ZZAP" / X Missed Trust Payments Trigger Alarms in China (finews.asia) Travellers will see queuing time double at French border due to post-Brexit checks | The Independent or avoid the summer and busy bank holidays, IF you can War photographer James Nachtwey: Capturing conflict, heroism, history | 60 Minutes - CBS News terrible, awful, horrific stuff - stop this! >>> James Nachtwey was in Ukraine at the start of the war, photographing the bodies of civilians that Russian troops had executed. Nachtwey said that of all the military brutality he captured in his career, the Russians “stood apart.” bne IntelliNews - Niger and beyond: Francophone credit delivers coup de grâce Russia sanctions: ‘Switzerland is part of the problem’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Denmark has one of the steepest declines in exports to Russia. Total exports (top left, black) are down -57% from H1 '19 to H1 '23, similar to Finland's -65% drop (top right, black). Baltics look bad. Latvia is +19% (bottom left, black). Estonia +14% (bottom right). @LasseEgeris https://t.co/ByAwExE9rz" / X GOP sees turnout disaster without Trump | The Hill >>> Republican strategists are worried that if former President Trump doesn’t secure the GOP’s presidential nomination next year, or if he is kept off the ballot because of his mounting legal problems, it could spell a voter turnout disaster for their party in 2024 Will America eventually tire of Trump's legal troubles? | The Spectator Vivek Ramaswamy says he’s the best candidate to push Trump’s agenda forward | PBS NewsHour Bloomberg on Twitter: "Argentina's Javier Milei, a presidential candidate often compared to Donald Trump, surprises by leading a primary race. @manuelatobiasm has more https://t.co/0wYRvbkkkk https://t.co/7waI9E66kN" / X thoughts---? Trump co-conspirators never got paid by Trump team (cnbc.com) totally normal Russian court bans UBS, Credit Suisse from subsidiary disposals | Reuters Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Chart Of The Day - Retail Investor REIT Allocations Retail investors are refusing to invest in REITs -- omen or opportunity? Yesterday I shared a chart on Twitter (well, what is now called “X”, but as I’ve been on it since 2009 I still call it Twitter) — it showed fund managers… https://t.co/NQKqGo2Tow" / X just to show or say that a lot has been priced in by markets - already..... the very contrarian investors will start to notice Japan's longest-living people do this 5-minute exercise every day (cnbc.com) CABLE - trending lower in short-term, but the bulls will rejoice if we go 1.2750+, otherwise USD strength could rag us back down towards 1.23-1.25 area

EMG fallout, Argentina devalued its currency by about 20% and hiked rates to 118% .. after right-wing populist Javier Milei won Sunday's presidential primary elections >>> 20+ years ago, I recall talking about hedging strategies to some you, USD/ARS was 1.0000, great stories.. it is now at 350 to the $ BEIJING (Reuters) -An unusually public claim by a Chinese professor (Peking University professor Zhang Dandan) the country's youth jobless rate might have hit close to 50% in March has stoked a debate about official data and a soft labour market, despite curbs on negative portrayals of the economy, while the National Bureau of Statistics said that month's jobless rate for people between the ages of 16 and 24 was just under 20% only >>> so now, they are not going to report youth data as they are looking at changing how they collate it Chinese authorities are considering cutting the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008 >>> 'deeflation' in China? Will it spread to the West? that's a risk going fwd as it really looks like a credit crisis looming in China >>> China lowered key interest rates, even though some talk of a surprise, it clearly isn't, markets increasingly driven by expectations of more sugar to come one way or another, not always a good sign Central Bank of Russia hikes 350bps to 12% in 'extraordinary meeting' after Ruble crash through the 100 level.. NY Fed survey of consumer exp : showing a broad decline in inflation expectations and improving consumer finances, short-term infl exp feel to 3.5%, while 3 and 5y exp declined to 2.9%.. UBS to pay $1.4 billion fine for fraud in mortgage-backed securities, the combine fines of UBS and CS over the last 20years, is a staggering +$30bn US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being refilled , nearly150k barrel increase over the last week is the biggest since Jun 2020 ( reserve decline over the past 2 years is over 270m barrels, so long way to go) UK Unemployment rate increases in three months to June as wages continue to grow >>> UK wages growth fuels infl concerns, private sector pay rose 8.2% in Q2 J apan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom , JPY failed to rally Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals Markets : SPX back 'just' above 50dma, but beware when all/most is driven daily by ODTE options flows! Duration, yields making new highs, plenty of '20+y ears highs in 10y yields' out there, including 30y mortgage rates heading above 8% in many parts of the U.S >>> helping USDollar still, JPY did not react positively to a very strong Q2 GDP data EMGFX could awaken again, been plenty of buyers there, if US rates continue, Argentina, Russia, China and few others could suddenly be questioned.. SpotGamma on Twitter: "This is pretty wild - don't think I've seen a full day of almost pure 0DTE Purple: all S&P500 options flow Teal: 0DTE S&P500 flow The direct overlap of the lines suggests nearly all meaningful flow was 0DTE https://t.co/qSBcnS8b6a" / X Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom (msn.com) Credit Suisse Shareholders File Suit in Zurich Court (finews.asia) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "After hitting its lowest level since 1983, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being replenished. 142k barrel increase over the last week is the biggest since June 2020. The decline in reserves over the past 2 years: 273 million barrels. https://t.co/6sB3AwFvzU" / X Russian Ruble Tumbles Past 100 Against Dollar—Here’s Why That’s Significant (forbes.com) does it turn into one of those nightmare scenario ? hard to argue why it should not, if sanctions stay on for years or decade to come >>> hikes by 350bps to 12% Argentina devalues its currency, jacks up interest rates after shock far-right primary win - CNBC Africa Donald Trump and allies charged in Georgia over bid to overturn 2020 US election | Evening Standard Broken wheel likely cause of Gothard tunnel derailment - SWI swissinfo.ch pas chic Unemployment rate increases in three months to June as wages continue to grow | ITV News Analysis: Why record wage growth will give the Bank of England kittens - and see them raise rates again - CityAM Tesla reassures Chinese users on data security amid spying concerns | TechCrunch China halts youth jobless data as economy falters - BBC News China economy: July industrial output, fixed asset, retail miss expectations (cnbc.com) Irish farmers pressured to cull up to 200,000 cows to meet climate goals | Financial Times (ft.com) madness USDJPY - up and away till BoJ makes a stand

US 30-Year Treasury auction signals weak demand to wrap up week of big sales >>> U.S CPI came in as expected, ex-shelter came in basically flat, shelter is the main remaining issue Fed President Mary Daly downplayed the improvement in inflation data and emphasized the data dependence of upcoming rate decisions. Fed's Collins: We are near or perhaps at a sufficiently restrictive level of rates, Feds Harker:The Fed is making progress on its inflation fight, Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be>>> they mostly sound like it's nearly done, Nov still in play, only just Fed's Bostic: I don't know how persistent pandemic labor market changes will be RBA Lowe: Things are moving in the right direction. Too early to declare victory, rates are restrictive so we are calibration stage with policy Fed QT paused last week, balance sheet remain almost unchg at $8.2trn FT-The ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ landing. Straightenin’ the curves, yeah, flattenin’ the hills  Apple has bought back nearly $600bn in stock over the past 10 years , which is larger than the market cap of 490 Co's in the S&P500 Twittereee : X : “Lawful But Awful” Content to be hidden... Glencore : We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end-of-life electronics , and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds That's what you call a hike! : Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank has hiked its main interest rate to 25%, up from 11%, it said in a statement dated Tuesday UBS voluntarily terminates guarantee agreement with Swiss government US Sec. of State Blinken: The release of Americans in prison in Iran is a positive step OPEC sees global #oil demand rising over 2 million barrels per day this year and next year. Sees oil supplies rising by about 1.4 or 1.5 million barrels this year and next year, now, if true, in my calculation, we have a shortage... this would mean $100 WTI again soon... Markets : Forget about VIX, it's all about ODTE on daily basis , we've had a few examples lately, when SPX looks 'happy^' and has a sudden decent dip daily, all about #ODTE ! SPX500 near that 'holy' trend support and just above 50gma around here 4473, M NQ is breaking/has broken 50dma at 15300 already, ALL about weekly close to confirm this downside risk USDollar firmer together with UST yields, initially 'unch' after U.S CPI, clear reaction yesterday in long-end and thus supply looks to be 'the' main issue going forward, CROSSJPY's taken previous stops 158+ eurjpy etc, maybe head-fake let's see over next few days.. Short-term real rates moving higher, real rates will continue to surge unless core inflation starts to accelerate (with rent softening) or unless the Fed starts cutting US 30-Year Treasury Auction Yielded 4.189%, Highest Since 2011 - Bloomberg AI is still driving Big Tech earnings (yahoo.com) Tech earnings season is winding down, and if there’s one takeaway from the results so far, it’s that the AI craze is still driving the narrative for industry’s biggest companies. Publication of 2022 Annual and Climate Reports (glencore.com) The ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ landing | Financial Times (ft.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.3 trillion. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate near a 54-year low at 3.5%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? https://t.co/bdI7luW2Ik" / X X CEO Linda Yaccarino explains reason for getting rid of Twitter name (msn.com) Sounds great, I was listening to most of this chat, please tell me how and who will define "healthy speech," and "awful but lawful speech"? Boris Johnson’s House of Lords appointees donate £17m to Tory Party | openDemocracy classic Carlton Club donates £250k to party MPs after Covid handouts (thelondoneconomic.com) UBS voluntarily terminates guarantee agreement with Swiss government - SWI swissinfo.ch Pakistan’s army is back in charge of politics (economist.com) Michael Pettis on Twitter: ""The contribution of high value-added industries such as new energy and biotechnology to China’s total economic inputs picked up in July, due to growing labor and technology inputs." https://t.co/z11acINeKY" / X How biological battery company Bioo makes renewable energy from soil (cnbc.com) Hawaii wildfires: At least 36 people dead after flames destroy large parts of town in Maui | World News | Sky News have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Ahead of U.S CPI : The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes, just a 15% chance of a Sep rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in Nov, expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing Joe Biden signed an order that will limit US investment in some Chinese firms: It will cover semiconductor, quantum computing and AI, but will exclude passive investments and possibly publicly traded securities "The share of U.S consumers who financed a vehicle with a monthly payment of $1,000 or more reached a new all-time peak of 17.1% in Q2, up from 16.8% in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q2 of 2019." - Edmunds B of A: “.. US debt to GDP is at an all-time high , and the US now ranks in the bottom 5 (vs. Top 5 in 2000), in line with Emerging Europe. Worldwide Governance Indicators data show the US shifting closer to emerging economies on other measures like political stability ..” For the first time since 2011, total US bank credit is now YoY negative UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all Markets : Main indices a little softer under pressure, a lot going on underneath, any company missing on earnings getting a smashed, owned positions at risk etc.. Energy stocks are once again outperforming overall markets 5-year, 5-year USD inflation swap highest since 2014, all about CPI Rice soars to highest since 2008 on rising threats to supply Right now we have high(er) interest rates, higher gas prices, higher oil prices and higher tightening lending standards, high valuation, concentrated risk (S&P7) + governments loaded up with debts Natural-Gas Prices Soar on Australian Labor Dispute - WSJ UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all (yahoo.com) In Depth: Chinese Banks Balk at Regulatory Support for Rate Cuts to Existing Mortgages - Caixin Global Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes. There's just a 15% chance of a September rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in November. The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing https://t.co/CgZsiaIouq" / X MarketReader on Twitter: "The next trader in our Famous Traders series is John Paulson. Famous traders are typically known for an approach to investing that can be used over and over to generate alpha over time. But there are exceptions to this. Some traders are famous for making a huge bet on a single… https://t.co/SIK5k6q8wn" / X Joe Weisenthal on Twitter: "Trimflation! Extremely cool stuff from @MattHardigree, building on some of @IsabellaMWeber's work and data that he himself has collected, to show how much the Big 3 prioritized building higher cost, higher margin models while their capacity was impaired. https://t.co/OlV0rnToP8 https://t.co/EzWEr6VcyF" / X Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "European natural gas jumped >€40/MWh for the first time since June amid the possibility of worker strikes in Australia — highlighting market jitters over potential supply disruptions. (BBG) https://t.co/RQE0LDkrrP" / X UBS: Panik wegen Risky Rusky? - Inside Paradeplatz Here's Why Hapag-Lloyd (ETR:HLAG) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors (yahoo.com) Valuation, solid balance-sheet Rice Soars to Highest Since 2008 on Rising Threats to Supply - Bloomberg Vienna lawyer to help tenants in Austria sue landlords for overpaid rent - The Local The average Manhattan rent just hit a new record of $5,588 a month (cnbc.com) Holiday in Belgium, says Tui boss, after scorching summer | Financial Times and UK !