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Week ahead : U.S Housing, confidence, GDP, jobs, inflation, Nvidia earnings up next, and the usual Trump tweet of course, UKR, Israel news, NVIDIA's market cap is now just ~$1 TRILLION below the Japanese stock market Markets : JH kept its reputation for a decent few moves! Powell surprised Mr Market and was a littel 'dovish' (#macro been weaker lately..not surprising really, next big event is NFP next week!), rates 10bps down, USD 1% softer and SPX/QQQ loved the sound of it, note DAX is actually lower than it was when the news came out n Friday, #BTC down few percent as we start the week (big picture failed 120K area) BOJ’s Ueda expects tightening job market to push up wages, ECB rate cut talk may resume after September pause (key is presser) Higher tariffs are kicking in. Walmart and other retailers said about their impact U.S Housing affordability just hit a new all-time low . The median American household now needs to spend 48% of their income to buy the median-priced home — worse than the peak of the 2006 bubble European wind giant Orsted plunges ~19% after Trump administration halts construction of key wind farm. The Danish company was already struggling financially, trying to raise >$9 billions in an emergency equity injection Telegraph Britain ‘heading towards IMF bailout’. Economists warn of 1970s-style debt crisis unless Chancellor changes course >>> doubt the '76 play is justified, but to put things inperspective, conditions would require up to 150bn £ in spending cuts!...in contaxt to the failed attempt to cut 2, 3 or even £5bn ... Key Takeaways from the Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Conference Interest Rate Outlook : Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely on course for a rate cut in September, pointing to a “shifting balance of risks” in the economic outlook. Monetary Policy Strategy Update : Powell announced adjustments to the Fed’s policy framework, including the rollback of the “makeup strategy” adopted in 2020 and a revision to the language describing the central bank’s maximum employment objective. Political Tensions : The conference was overshadowed by political controversy, as former President Donald Trump criticized Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating he would dismiss her if she does not resign amid allegations of mortgage fraud. Stocks and data to watch the week of August 25 though 29 Market Quick Take - 25 August 2025 | Saxo Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Flash Crash Erases the Powell Spike as Options Signal Lingering Market Jitters VanEck warns: Why Bitcoin treasury companies could face capital erosion Powell avoided the elephant in the room at Jackson Hole ECB’s Nagel: There is a ‘High Bar’ for another rate cut BOJ's Ueda expects tightening job market to push up wages ECB rate cut talk may resume after September pause, sources say | Reuters Rachel Reeves ‘heading towards 70s-style IMF bailout’ Retail earnings: Walmart, Target, Home Depot discuss tariffs Canada rolls back tariffs on the U.S. in a trade approach shift SoftBank and Trump may not be enough to save Intel Meta unveil Hypernova smart glasses with display, wristband at Connect The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What is happening here? Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY. Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt. Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy? (a thread) https://t.co/YsC7aRlQ1A " / X The bullish case, fuelled by easy money Dan Niles on X: "I wrote in a post last Sunday August 17th: “I continue to believe the mkt melts up till Thanksgiving with easy money addicted investors emboldened by signs at Jackson Hole of upcoming rate cuts. Despite important economic releases remaining such as PCE, CPI and PPI before the" / X China retail investors are using savings to fuel stock market bull run Israel carries out dozens of strikes on Yemen's Sanaa France summons US ambassador for panning Macron's response to rising antisemitism | The Times of Israel Zelensky thanks King Charles for ‘inspirational’ letter sent to mark Ukraine’s Independence Day

I wonder if Jerome Pow is going to make it there...The 'Million Dollar Cowboy Bar' Markets : FED Sep cut priced again around 60%, so anything goes basically (was fully priced 1week ago)..USD reacts, QQQ mostly reacted too...Fed's Hammack 'current conditions don't support a Sep cut', U.S PMI was a little higher than expected, all about Powell in JH, but since payrolls are key, focus should quickly shift to next employment data day early Sep, the last before Fed Sep decision. Japan's 20-Year Bond Yield hits highest level in 25+ years, #GDX kept on motoring this week even though GOLD prices remained stable.. Let's see what Powell has to say, risk been reduced, awaiting new opportunities at better levels, tactically few #QQQ shorts established earlier in the week (AI top, RSI's, valuations, short-term momentum turned etc) Fed's Bostic: Crypto is too small to put financial stability in play Redfin: Home purchases are getting canceled at a record rate The US-EU release a bare-bones account of their trade deal, but it's a work in progress The United States and European Union say they've agreed on the details of a trade deal that would keep tariffs high for now on European vehicles and lower them on computer chips, but it will take weeks — or months — of additional negotiations to iron out remaining issues. White House officials hailed a joint statement released Thursday in Washington and Brussels as an important step toward fleshing out the commitments reached by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at their impromptu July summit Nvidia Corp. has instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics Co. and Amkor Technology Inc. to stop production related to the H20 AI chip Fitch Ratings: US consumer spending slows sharply as labor market weakens, tariffs raise inflation >>> It’s taking a longer and longer time for jobless Americans to get new jobs. Continuing jobless claims have been steadily grinding higher, now at new post-2021 highs Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured Watch Fed's Bostic: Crypto Too Small to Put Financial Stability in Play - Bloomberg Wall Street closes down as investors brace for Powell's speech | Reuters The US and EU release a bare-bones account of their trade deal, but it's a work in progress The deep transformation of China’s consumption structure: a complex picture beyond “downshifting” U.S. Consumer Spending Slows Sharply as Labor Market Weakens, Tariffs Raise Inflation | Forex Factory Meta said to sign $10-billion cloud deal with Google - TechCentral Nvidia Asks Suppliers to Halt H20 Work, Information Says Redfin Reports Home Purchases Are Getting Canceled at a Record Rate Redollarization and Digital Statecraft: How Stablecoins Are Rewiring Global Power | Financial Sense Haven't spent muich time thinking about all this, but interesting interview BTC248: Bitcoin’s Institutiona…–We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network – Apple Podcasts (44) Updates Updates: Palestinians face death, displacement amid Israel Gaza City attack France slams Netanyahu's claim that it fuels antisemitism as 'abject' and 'erroneous' Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump says Kyiv needs to ‘fight back’ after Putin launches massive serial assault German economy shrank by 0.3% in Q2, more than initially expected | Reuters Gold and Watches Boost Swiss Exports to US Before 39% Tariff - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : ALL about Jackson Hole tone on rates (prediction=total data dependence, job data key now..!) , Trump wants another FED member to leave, and that was even before FOMC minutes (risk of inflation outweighs concerns over labor market.. >>> and again.. #macro '' Meta is freezing all AI hiring, per WSJ'' AND The Federal Reserve didn’t provide any liquidity to Wall Street between Aug 14 till yesterday (Aug 19) and decline -4%...again and again, FED and Trump been juicing the market, if they don't..it falls.. tiz indeed all about liquidities, as the macro picture has worsened and valuations are way too high (Shiller PE near 40, Buffett indicator at 200% of GDP, tariffs choking margins as demand freezes, consumer going into hiding. while Trump continues to run the US economy like a mafia boss (FT).. #timeforahedgingtrade #AI : sure is/has been one of the most exciting things in tech right, ever probably, but it’s surely starting to feel more like a house of cards Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central bank’s rate-setting committee >>> 2018 Sep-Oct, Powell gave strong pushback to Trump's calls to cut rates. Markets sold off until January. History doesn't repeat but often rhymes >>> Tom Lee now saying a -10% pull back between Sept - Oct. We are consistently ahead of everyone Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.20% - the highest level on record, 20's highest since 1999 Trump Targets Corporate America to Achieve Economic and Foreign Policy Goals >>> this is SO WHERE it's going , taking-thieving stakes in various companies across America, not much different than China then !!... UK : Reeves considers replacing stamp duty with new property tax. Exclusive: Treasury examines options including tax on homes sold for more than £500,000 as well as overhaul of council tax Good old # Brexit... which is battering Britain’s services sector, exports to the EU are down nearly 16%, with red tape, licensing hurdles and loss of mutual recognition costing firms clients and cash. Far from “Global Britain”, we’re watching our strongest industries bleed competitiveness China scrutiny of Nvidia chips sparked by ’insulting’ remarks from US official- FT Kenya is in talks to convert the debt it owes to China from USD to RMB. About $5 billion of its $40 billion in external debt is owed to China/Thread fomcminutes20250730.pdf FOMC: Several Officials Said Current Rate May Not Be Far Above Neutral - Minutes - Several Flagged Risk Of Inflation Expectations Anchoring - Many Noted Full Effect Of Tariffs Could Take Some Time - Majority Saw Employment Risk Outweighed By Inflation Risk - Several Noted Concerns About Elevated Asset Valuations - Several Expected Firms Would Pass Tariffs To Customers >>>>> still some work for Trump to do to move the majority of the FOMC, more 'firing' needed! 🙂 Fed minutes August 2025 Trump’s roving banditry will undermine the US economy Trump’s roving banditry will undermine the US economy On tariffs and tax the president acts like a mafia boss, but not a very good one China scrutiny of Nvidia chips sparked by ’insulting’ remarks from US official- FT By Investing.com Trump Targets Corporate America to Achieve Economic and Foreign Policy Goals Trump wants Fed's Lisa Cook out over mortgage fraud claims Copper: Trump slams 'anti-American' pushback over Arizona project Germany's businesses want Berlin to walk its talk https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/aug/18/rachel-reeves-stamp-duty-property-tax-council-tax Higher taxes, one way or another, not just in UK...are coming, get used to it Target gets a new CEO amid revenue drop Kakashii on X: "I'm old enough to remember investors' concern about the rate of cash burn at Meta during 2022, when they punished the stock with a drop of up to 77% from its peak, until Mark gave in and cut capex. Now we are facing an almost identical situation where Meta has 40% less cash on https://t.co/Cx5Oikeu1r " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 Kenya is in talks to convert the debt it owes to China from USD to RMB. About $5 billion of its $40 billion in external debt is owed to China. It makes sense for developing countries to diversify their external debt away from a single currency. https://t.co/oBFwr6DELg " / X Police in Brazil say Bolsonaro drafted asylum plea to Milei in 2024 | Buenos Aires Times

Meta to downsize its AI division, some executives expected to leave as bubble fears mount — NYT...this after yesterday's call from Altman (AI bubble etc..) #macro Markets : U.S Govt wants Intel equity, Jackson Hole creating a little bit of angst in markets, opt expiries (less gamma momentum higher-small reset) >>> as discussed recently, we used this rally to reduce exposure for clients, will await nbetter levels to re-enter, frothy markets etc.. and tactically on spec side, sold some shorts/ hedged #QQQ, Altman and Meta warnings, ChatGPT5 seen as a bit of a disapointment, momentum has turned (PLTR classic example..), and speculative longs stretched..as often these days, #BTC also doing its usual advanced warning ahead of Powell, trading as risk asset Trump accused Powell of “hurting” the housing industry “very badly” and reiterated his call for a significant rate cut. We’re also approaching the 5-year Fed policy review, adding another layer of anticipation Central Banks - Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets - Combination of record government debt and rising borrowing costs puts central banks under pressure , and US Debt / Stablecoins - Scott Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries - Treasury secretary’s discussions with crypto groups have helped inform issuance decisions-FT Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms Europe Races to Leverage Trump’s Support for Ukraine Troop Plan  . A package of security guarantees for Ukraine will take shape as soon as this week, with European leaders looking to leverage President Donald Trump's backing for a plan involving European troops. European officials are discussing a plan to send British and French troops to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, with about 10 countries ready to send forces to the war-battered nation Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets Lutnick says Intel has to give (also known as 'taking' or theft' ) government equity in return for CHIPS Act funds On September 9th, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the revision could cut reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs Before the war in Ukraine, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia. Now it is 42%. The system is allowing India to profiteer by buying cheap Russian oil, reselling it, and pocketing $16B in excess profits. This opportunistic arbitrage is unacceptable Tariff status quo with China ‘working pretty well’: US Treasury Secretary Bessent | The Straits Times BTC drops to $113k as Powell's Jackson Hole speech approaches; Check forecast Why ChatGPT 5 Has AI Fans Divided: The Pros and Cons - Geeky Gadgets Trump plans Zelenskyy-Putin meeting after European leaders visit White House Despite a flurry of meetings on Russia's war in Ukraine, major obstacles to peace remain Netanyahu brands Australia's Albanese 'weak' over Palestinian state recognition Lutnick: Intel must give government equity in return for CHIPS funds Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms | Reuters Trump tariff revenue expected to offset tax bill impact Zuckerberg Again Overhauls Meta’s A.I. Efforts - The New York Times UK inflation in July 2025: StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Japan’s 20-year bond yield just surged to 2.61%. Why? A brutal government auction just shook the market. Here’s what happened, why it spooked investors, and why it could ripple far beyond Japan. ( a thread) https://t.co/jTzZNIKgNL " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Massive jobs data revisions are coming: On September 9th, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the revision could cut reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs. This implies https://t.co/P2vBU7vg7H " / X Navigating Fiscal Dominance: A Strategic Guide to Asset Allocation in a Debt-Driven Era Exclusive: Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20, sources say | Reuters Nick Gerli on X: "Historical cost of Buying v Renting. This explains everything about the current housing market. https://t.co/nZoiQpW7Rh " / X SoftBank Group shares plunge over 9% as Asian tech stocks track declines in U.S. peers Melania Trump threatens to sue Hunter Biden for $1bn over Epstein claim

Markets : a truce in Gaza looks increasingly likely, UKR-RU-US-EU-UK summit seems to have gone OK, 3-way negotiaitons being held, equity markets full of '' overbought signals clustering, valuations through the roof, momentum fading'', and now even Altman warnings on AI 'bubbly valuations' too, only 5% of the time in history has the S&P 500 been more expensive (Thread, BoA), and U.S. office vacancies have also now surged past 20%, an all time record OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who sparked the Ai frenzy, worries about AI bubble, comparing market conditions to those of the dotcom boom in the late 1990s China’s EV industry is spending more on factories abroad than at home for the first time The Trump administration is in discussions to take a stake of about 10% in Intel Corp. by converting some or all of the company's grants from the US Chips and Science Act into equity >>> threaten to sack the CEO, drive the share price down, buy some...and 1week later discuss major stake in the company..or Softbank by the looks now Geneva offers free public transport due to ozone spike (and car ban in center) 'The best risk control is not to have any positions that can kill you.” Druckenmiller Wall Street is giving the Saudi oil giant a thumbs down: Aramco shares plunged to a 5½-year low, valuations, valuations.. U.S. office vacancies have now surged past 20%, an all time record. To see how extreme this is, look back at past crises: in the early 1990s commercial real estate bust, vacancies peaked around 16%; after the dot com crash in the early 2000s, they again reached roughly 16%; even during the 2008 financial crisis, when credit markets froze and layoffs were massive, vacancies topped out near 15% Trump-Zelenskyy meeting paves way for Ukraine security guarantees, Putin talks OpenAI's Sam Altman says AI market is in a bubble Take your pick Analysts downplay AI bubble worries as Altman looks to spend trillions Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️ Only 5% of the time in history has the S&P 500 been more expensive. The S&P 500 forward P/E is now 22.5x, the second-highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. At the Dot-Com peak, it was around 25.0x. The 30-year average is 15.5x. Brace for lower than average returns. https://t.co/puSaJGGpTO " / X US office vacancy rates break 20% for first time ever | Facilities Dive China's electric car industry invests more overseas than at home Iron ore sinks BHP FY profit to 5-year low but dividend boosts shares | Reuters Intel gets $2 billion lifeline in the form of SoftBank equity investment | Reuters Saudi Aramco Gets Wall Street’s Thumbs Down — Again - Bloomberg Fürstenbank LGT überholt Family-Bank Vontobel – Inside Paradeplatz Geneva offers free public transport due to ozone spike - SWI swissinfo.ch Why smaller investors should pay attention to corporate bonds – The Armchair Trader Chan: HK drawing up plans to support gold trading

Crucial meeting at the white House today Markets : The biggest event risk now lies in today’s  U.S.–Ukrainian summit in Washington , but mor eimportantly  Jackson Hole conference  taking place Thursday through Saturday (last chance really for Powell to signal something for Fed decision in Sep and beyond - recall a cut is almost priced in.. and 4-5more into 2026..)... Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again/Thread >>> plenty of 'market topping out stories, extremes valuations, Hartnett now too, should not be any surprise if a decent correction comes along into September... risk is Powell cuts down expectations thereafter....Jackson Hole super important, see below The record-breaking rally in US stocks has left them prime for profit taking in the event of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, Winners could include gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, EMs ./Thread Zelensky Heads Back to Washington Under Pressure From Putin - European leaders to join Ukrainian president in visit to Oval Office seeking a path to end war with Russia - WSJ - Trump’s Peace-Deal Demands Leave Zelenskiy With Only Bad Options  - Volodymyr Zelenskiy is in an impossible bind, having to risk Donald Trump's wrath or accept a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine by ceding territory for vague security guarantees. The US president has appeared to align with Putin by dropping demands for an immediate ceasefire and urging Zelenskiy to act fast on a peace plan, which includes a "lands' swap" that Zelenskiy has refused to accept Markets : Sep cut is far from a done deal despite 90% probability currently priced in by Mr Market all down to the BLS decided to show on 5th Sep NFPayrolls ! “We call a tariff a protective measure. It does protect; it protects the consumer very well against one thing. It protects the consumer against low prices.” – Milton Friedman There are now 511,000 new homes for sale in the US, the highest inventory since October 2007, Contract signings to buy a house hits the lowest level in 30 years Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly repeats that while an outsize rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting likely isn’t needed, she still thinks two cuts this year will be appropriate.  Not even the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble saw this: The S&P 500 Price-to-Book Value ratio hit a RECORD 5.3x. The ratio has now officially surpassed the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak German 30y bond yields climbed to 3.35%, the highest level since 2011 . Investors are demanding higher term premia as the surge in bond supply weighs on the market Bill Clinton proves Marco Rubio is lying, right here, clear as day: WE forced Ukraine to give up their nukes, cruise missiles, and strategic bombers: WE promised to protect Ukraine from Russia; WE made Ukraine vulnerable. So yeah, THIS IS OUR WAR Texas grants grid operators authority to CUT Data Center Power during crises Tucson rejects Amazon-linked data center amid water, energy concerns (even with their own within the company AND the council, META not getting their own ways...) Zelensky Returns to White House With Squad of EU Leaders Fed Chair Jerome Powell may seriously disappoint Wall Street at Jackson Hole Steve Rosenberg on X: "“Trump has adopted Russia’s position,” writes one Russian paper today. “He will present his peace ultimatum to Zelensky. And there’s no doubt it’s an ultimatum.” My review of today’s Russian papers. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/FzMo7y0ToD " / X Rt. Hon Ben Wallace on X: "Things to remember and to watch for in Washington today. 1. It is assessed by many Military leaders in Nato , UK & US that for Putin to take by force the 4 Oblasts will take a further 2 million Russian Casualties & 4.4 years. Without Trump , Putin doesn’t hold all the cards 1/9" / X Beware ! Billions lost on Wall Street penny stocks as ‘pump-and-dump’ scams multiply BofA's Hartnett sees profit-taking in stocks after Jackson Hole - InvestmentNews The True Meaning of Trump’s Tariffs by Carla Norrlöf - Project Syndicate AI in apartment market is taking over work orders, lease renewals and more Fed's Daly: Fed will likely need to lower rates in coming months as job market has slowed Trump moving closer to decision on making weed less criminal in eyes of federal government: sources Meta Plans Fourth Restructuring of AI Efforts in Six Months — The Information The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again: The number of container ships departing from China to the US over the last 15 days has dropped to its lowest level since May. This is also one of the lowest readings in 2 years. Shipping volumes have declined by https://t.co/yHg2hDG7o3 " / X Texas Grants Grid Operators Authority to Cut Data Center Power During Crises. What It Signals for the AI Buildout - Smartland Energy Tucson rejects Amazon-linked data center amid water, energy concerns

U.S PPI...This is the highest increase in PPI since inflation was deemed “Transitory” IMHO... The Fed should not cut at all in Sep (unless NFP is much below 100K for example).., most if not all the calls for cutting are political and incoherent..('we have the hottest economy and record stock market but rates too high and need to be 1.5 or 2% lower... really' ??). Just past week one single crypto (ETH) added nearly 1% of GDP...do we really need easier money ??   >>> July PPI up 0.9% MoM, far in excess of the +0.2% expected, highest jump since June 22, yoy PPI up 3.3%, highest since Feb (trending higher-clear that US companies are passing along current (and future) costs ) >>> risk is a CPI spike is coming next Markets : all ears and eyes on Alaska, high stakes summit (25% chance meetings doesnt succeed-Trump), Lavrov has arrived for the meeting in a shirt that says СССР (USSR), Berkshire been busy with new buys and still selling AAPL, in Japan, the ruling LDP is undertaking a never-before-used measure to potentially remove PM Ishiba from office over next several weeks (keep an eye on JGB's and JPY..), markets boosted by fiscal, steemie checks, Reverse REPO down to $28bn so thats near enough zero (additional $$$'s now must come from Bank reserves or QE...).. and calls for large FED cuts (Bessent) that are still priced in, the FED only cut once in it's life span when CPI was above 3%...last year ... U.S. deficit grows to $291 billion in July despite tariff revenue surge A lot of similar warnings signs lately, so far no impact (fiscal boost, IRS confirms treasury checks, liquidity plenty etc), but beware and play accoridngly , The US stock market is EXTREMELY overvalued: The Shiller P/E ratio on the S&P 500 hit 38.7x, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE burst Tariff-driven price hikes may be hidden by products stuck in ‘the middle mile’ #BTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Crypto reserve: We are not going to be buying it, will use confiscated assets The Trump administration is in early stage talks with Intel over a possible US government stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, sources said. The proposal emerged after President Trump met Intel’s CEO earlier this week and discussed a plan to revive the troubled US chipmaker. Intel shares rose +7% during the day and a further +4.6% post-market (BBG, FT, WSJ) - nice classic insider again ?...probably.. China's factory output, retail sales growth slump in blow to economy -  China's factory output growth hits eight-month low. Retail sales also slump, highlighting demand woes at home. China's 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% Scott Bessent tells Europe to ‘put up or shut up’ over Russia sanctions, threatens India with more tariffs U.K. government's plan for the NHS to pivot to offering fat-fighting drugs to save money longer term just got much more expensive (Eli Lilly raised prices by 170%..) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Lavrov has arrived for the meeting in a shirt that says СССР (USSR). https://t.co/h5HYuvTrob " / X Steve Rosenberg on X: "“Putin wants a good relationship with Trump. He also wants the capitulation of Ukraine.” Ahead of the Alaska summit Vladimir Putin hails America’s “energetic efforts” for peace in Ukraine. But is he ready to end Russia’s war? Our report from Anchorage. Producer @BBCBenTavener https://t.co/hAzl7kLxYL " / X Scott Bessent tells Europe to ‘put up or shut up’ over Russia sanctions, threatens India with more tariffs U.S. deficit grows to $291 billion in July despite tariff revenue surge Weston Nakamura on X: "🇯🇵ruling LDP is undertaking a never-before-used measure to potentially remove PM Ishiba from office over next several weeks Bond markets beware as 🌎 most dangerous market heads into… who knows Scenario guide to navigate markets amidst 🇯🇵 political leadership turmoil coming https://t.co/u9yRw6rMLr " / X Are we getting a stimulus check in August 2025? IRS Where's my refund Benzinga on X: "Millions of Americans could soon receive a $1,390 stimulus check, according to reports citing the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS. The payment is aimed at providing relief to low and middle-income households and is expected to roll out in late summer. Officials have denied https://t.co/iSrd4K5sxH " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/16 This article notes that Xi Gao's recent attack on the claims by Ray Dalio that excess debt accumulation inevitably results in financial crises "is part of the ongoing debate between deficit hawks and doves in China over debt-fuelled fiscal spending." https://t.co/1II1w6bivE " / X BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC Top 13F Holdings - WhaleWisdom.com Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals new stake UnitedHealth Meta under fire after report finds it allowed AI to engage in romantic roleplay with children HKMA Calls Commercial Property Risks «Manageable» Tariff-driven price hikes may be hidden by products stuck in 'the middle mile' Mounjaro manufacturer to hike UK price of weight loss drug by up to 170% RWA News: BioSig and Streamex to Raise $1.1B for Gold Tokenization Initiative on Solana Who needs stable coins/UST's, when you can have this....that represent ownerhsip of 'real gold' Bridgewater Associates sells stake in big Chinese companies

All happening in Alaska tomorrow Bessent suggested the U.S. could use the Nvidia “fee” model with other industries... Markets : Trumo to Putin : peace or sanctions, your call (how..will be a trillion usd question..but lasting ceasefire would be a start!), markets continue to enjoy the Miran plan )unlocking refi wave, huge home equity, and inflation to inflate US debt away and thus continue to favor asset holders at the expensive of MAGA followers who voted him in (mostly), it will go on till something cracks.. >>>> Outside MAG7,plenty of action across the oceans in Europe, Japan, China, and emerging markets (Chile, Brazil breakouts.. ?). The global liquidity cycle is rising, and equities like more liquidity.. Bessent said the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve in addressing inflation, in a rare comment admonishing policy decisions by a foreign central bank, he also wants to run BoJ and other CB's ?... #USDJPY #UST #stablecoin we said it a while back, now Bessent said it, he has only ONE main target, sell UST's to the world via stablecoins / Thread Trump warns of ‘severe consequences’ if Russia doesn’t stop Ukraine war after Putin meeting, they had a very good chat yeterday together with EU leaders, let's see now Porsche, Deutsche Telekom in Talks to Anchor €500 Million Defense Fund  - the new fund will be run by DTCP, a Hamburg-based investment firm, and is seeking to raise €500 million. Porsche SE is setting up a fund to make defense-industry investments, and has dropped a previous requirement that it could only invest in companies that developed dual-use technology with both civilian and military applications White House to conduct review of Smithsonian museum exhibitions to ensure they fit with Trump's view of American history.. US appeals court lets Trump cut billions in foreign aid India, China in talks to resume border trade amid U.S. trade pressures Arab nations fume after Netanyahu says he feels connection to vision of ‘Greater Israel’’ European powers threaten ‘snapback sanctions’ if Iran doesn’t return to nuclear talks Trump warns of ‘severe consequences’ if Russia doesn’t stop Ukraine war after Putin meeting Bessent says unusual Nvidia, AMD revenue-sharing deal could be a ‘model’ for other industries Bessent Says BOJ Is Falling Behind the Curve, Expects Hike Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill delivers for the bottom 50% of wage earners with incentives like no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security, plus tax-deductible auto loans and 100% expensing to support U.S. manufacturing growth. https://t.co/sYgQakywHn " / X more government spending, more debt... WOLF on X: "Scott Bessent had one job. To sell the U.S. debt to the world. He’s going to do it with Stablecoins (his words, not mine) Here’s exactly what he’s got planned: https://t.co/pCQqmcyjhD " / X Arab nations fume after Netanyahu says he feels connection to vision of ‘Greater Israel’ Iran faces renewed sanctions if nuclear talks don’t resume ASAP – POLITICO India, China in talks to resume border trade amid U.S. trade pressures Climate: Temperature records in Europe amid extreme heat and wildfires Forest and land management !! Court Lets Trump Block Billions of Dollars in Foreign Aid White House reviewing all Smithsonian museum, exhibit content before America 250 celebration in 2026 Google announces new $9 billion investment in Oklahoma Is the UK now a natural hunting ground for investors? – The Armchair Trader You bet The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a $291 billion budget deficit in July, the 2nd-largest deficit for any July on record. The gap marks a sharp reversal from June’s $27 billion budget surplus. This comes as government spending surged +9.7% YoY to $630 billion, the 2nd-highest https://t.co/TL87SH1s2U " / X

Markets : U.S CPI 'goldilocks' scenario ( cool enough to avoid tightening but not recessionary - lets the FED and other central banks stay accommodative) , as U. S Rent index is down hard, falling 9.3% over the last year , global equities hitting new record highs, FED cutting in Sep is a dead cert ! (as per market pricing), fiscal excess...USD softer again, risk rallies, metals rally, everything rallies..pretty much, few negative spot on specific stories clearly, but all pretty happy times right now for Mr Market. Musk takes on APPL, Trump wants to sue FED's Powell and tells GS to sack their economist over tariffs predictions... ALL time highs on stocks, home prices, BTC, GOLD, money supply, National debt, CPI Inflation is about 4% per year since 2020 (double FED target)...and Trump/market wants 2 cuts this year and another 2 or 3 in 2026.... The U.S CPI was taken as dovish: Underlying inflation in the US increased in July, with the core CPI rising to 3.1% compared to the expected 3%. This increase was driven by higher service prices such as airfares, medical care, and recreation. Costs for tariff-exposed goods rose less than anticipated, Sep FED cut fully priced In July, the US Government collected $338 bn. Just one big problemos… spending was $ 630 bn (supporting equity markets though..) After US CPI, small caps for the win, for a day at least. | Saxo Market Call Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy and European leaders to speak with Trump on emergency call today ahead of Putin summit | World News | Sky News Trump threatens to sue Federal Reserve Chair Powell Trump tells Goldman Sachs CEO to replace economist over tariff predictions Trump’s pick for BLS commissioner floated suspending the monthly jobs report before apparently backing off July US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 2.7% Annual Rate, Slightly Below Expected | Morningstar Jeff Weniger on X: "The Cleveland Fed's New Tenant Rent index is down hard, falling 9.3% over the last year. I do not know how many people have self-deported, but that phenomenon is the best explanation I have for this index buckling like this. Prognostications of stagflation are misguided. https://t.co/FwVj5LrozO " / X Elon Musk threatens Apple with antitrust suit over App Store Perplexity Makes Audacious $34.5 Billion Bid for Google Chrome Amid Antitrust Showdown - WinBuzzer China warns companies against using Nvidia and AMD chips, report says Judge Orders Restoration Of Some UCLA Grants Blocked By Trump Climate: Temperature records in Europe amid extreme heat and wildfires

Trump now says he’s considering using the same federal takeover he just imposed on Washington, D.C., to seize control of New York, Chicago, and “other cities.” Markets : NIKKEI all-time-highs, as expected RBA cut 25bps to 3.6%, as Trump extend China truce for 90 days (more TACO, what else), and The Donald flipp-flopped on Intel CEO too (as exp..), Trump to join European leaders on emergency call before Putin talks, Why does Trump want to talk to Putin alone .. (coins, rare earth, real-estate, acess to financial markets?).. U.S CPI up next, and market will then focus on Friday's meeting President Donald Trump extended a pause of tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November , stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.The extension will ease worries of a renewed tariff war and gives the countries more time to discuss other unresolved issues such as duties tied to fentanyl trafficking and US business operations in China Brazil-US meeting canceled amid tariff dispute, says finance minister Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist (August 2025): “Central banks will be forced to revalue gold reserves to reduce domestic debt burden very positive gold.” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi -- who is pretty darn mainstream -- says "More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a telling sign that’s accompanied past recessions" A record 91% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America now believe US stocks are overvalued -chart available on request, and average cash position is 3.9%, which is Trump opens door to sales of version of Nvidia's next-gen AI chips in China U.S Employment components for both ISM Manufacturing (blue) and Services (orange) are in contraction and trending lower GOOGLE AND IBM BELIEVE FIRST WORKABLE QUANTUM COMPUTER IS IN SIGHT St.Louis FED : After paying for essentials, the lowest-earning 40% of households had very little money left over. Some actually spent more on essential items than they earned in 2023 >>> they clearly saying that 'disposable income is suffering' National Guard to deploy in DC: What to know Positioning for a Ukraine ceasefire? Market implications from Trump-Putin talks in Alaska | Saxo RBA cuts interest rates to more than 2-year lows That Extra Money: A Primer on Discretionary Income | St. Louis Fed Trump to join European leaders on emergency call before Putin talks  – POLITICO Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "There will be some changes in land ... Russia has taken some very prime territory. They've taken largely ocean -- in real estate we call it oceanfront property. That's always the most valuable property." https://t.co/DeyJnC7oDF " / X All he wants is access to rare earth and russian financial markets, when they reopen, and he will get russia to buy his 'coins' too..backhanders galore... China urges firms not to use Nvidia's H20 chips, Bloomberg reports Trump extends China tariff deadline by 90 days Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 SCMP: "Beijing now employs a wider arsenal of tools to manage volatility, with the key challenge being whether the yuan can open the door wider to market pricing and secure a larger international role – without destabilising swings." https://t.co/yFCTtPVaqi " / X Trump calls Intel CEO 'success' days after demanding resignation More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says | Fortune Stocks and data to watch the week of August 11 through 15 How pharma became Switzerland’s Achilles heel in US trade talks - SWI swissinfo.ch Bär schockt Extern-Workers: Tagesansatz brutal gekürzt – Inside Paradeplatz Brazil-US Meeting Canceled Amid Tariff Dispute, Says Finance Minister

As of June, foreign exporters absorbed 14% of US tariffs, US companies ate 64%, and US consumers ate 22% according to GS. Tariffs contributed 0.2% to PCE, but the impact could be 0.66% by year end Markets : Trump Uturns Swiss Gold tariffs (as expected..), FED pricing update : we now have 2 rtate cuts priced in by year-end adn another 3 for 2026 (>> woul dbe 3% Fed Fund by hen), rice prices plunges to its lowest price in 8y, #UPS is the largest courier in the world, stock has given up all the gains from covid lows, U.S CPI next focus tomorrow (U.S PPI Thursday and US claims, US sales Friday, and U.S-Russia and UKR talks? in Alaska Ahead of this Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit, ‘Vance: ‘We’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business’ (The Hill) - so Europe will be paying for whatever is agreed in terms of security guarantees(?); as ‘Europe urges Trump to use sanctions pressure ahead of Putin summit’ (FT) How Trump-Modi phone call sparked US-India trade fallout. In the 35-minute phone call, Modi clarified that the ceasefire was discussed directly between India and Pakistan ‘Trump may impose more tariffs on China as punishment for Beijing buying Russian oil’ (SCMP) #GOLD market : it may not be a revaluation the U.S want, but nore like a #confiscation and put the gold inthe Treasury's hands.. (they are determined to merge FED and US Treasury...and they will get there, one way or another ) US Fed's Bowman: Latest jobs data stiffens support for three rate cuts in 2025 NVDA and AMD Nvidia agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from chip sales to China to the US govt as part of a deal with the Trump admin to secure export licenses...the new way..is that even constitutional ? Largest 10% of U.S stocks now make ut 76% of total market cap - highest concentration in history , Nvidia now makes up over 8% of the S&P 500, the highest weighting for any single stock in the index on record, The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.15x sales, its highest valuation in history Opening up 401 (k) retirement plans worth $9 trillion IS a dream coming true for private equity >>> folks putting their pensions in there now, will NOT be happy in a few years time... The irony is that Steve Miran has leaned hawkish in the past few years/thread Swiss Politicians Push to Cancel F-35 Fighter-Jet Deal After US Tariffs UK : A second referendum on EU membership would be audacious, risky, and guaranteed to dominate the campaign. It would also give Labour something it desperately lacks: a defining, future-shaping offer #GBP US SERIOUS delinquencies are at CRISIS levels: The share of credit card debt delinquent 90+ days hit 12.3% in Q2 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS EU leaders push for Kyiv to be part of Trump-Putin talks to end Ukraine war Vance and Lammy host Ukraine talks ahead of US-Russia summit - BBC News How Trump-Modi phone call sparked US-India trade fallout Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US government Elon Musk: Tesla launches bid to supply electricity to UK households 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour: MS By Investing.com Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) on X: "As of June, foreign exporters absorbed 14% of US tariffs, US companies ate 64%, and US consumers ate 22% according to GS. Tariffs contributed 0.2% to PCE, but the impact could be 0.66% by year end... https://t.co/ObnnTZ26f1 https://t.co/eWJ6P0cZvp " / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: There have been 806,383 job cut announcements year-to-date, the 2nd-highest total since the FINANCIAL CRISIS! July saw 62,075 job cuts, nearly TRIPLE the 23,584 average in the 2021-2024 period.👇 https://t.co/hwEZwXkV6W " / X Swiss Politicians Push to Cancel F-35 Fighter-Jet Deal After US Tariffs - SWI swissinfo.ch Stephen Miran on X: "Major econ arguments I have made this year: Neutral is higher than the Fed thinks The Fed is not as tight as the Fed thinks Treasury issuance policy is counteracting what Fed restriction there is The reduced hiring rate is not indicative of problems with aggregate demand" / X Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "It's interesting to see some people claim inflation is slowing. The equal-weighted commodities index is up 12% in the past year. That’s real-world inflation. Meanwhile, US money supply just hit a new high, and the dollar is weakening sharply against other currencies, including https://t.co/xYS56p7DeX " / X What Happens When Private Equity Meets 401(k)s? - Finance Centers at the Wharton School % The dark secrets of Switzerland’s largest gold refinery - SWI swissinfo.ch From meme to movement: France’s online anti-tax revolt rattles Macron’s Elysée – POLITICO GOP-led states lead push for SNAP soda and candy bans Orsted shares plunge as it plans $9.4 billion rights issue

#APPL possibly the highlight of the week ?... so we had one of the richest CEOs on on the planet walking into the White House, on live TV, gifted over to Mr President a customed glass plaque in 24karat gold, that weighted about 10Kg, so worth about 1mio usd, like it’s some sort of renaissance bribe (Cook clearly not the first, nor will be the last..) , and walks out with a tariff exemption worth billions, in fact share price rallied to the tune of about 150bn$...the new normal..!?, I suppose that's a small price to pay...good lord Markets : GOLD basis/spreads come into play now, #SILJ breaking up, #GDX broke through big resistance last 2weeks (>>> the world is finally noticing...longway to go..) , GBP rallies on the 5-4 'split decison' to cut 25bps, initial jobless US claims rose ever so slightly to 226K. Fed influence in focus as Trump nominates Miran , not likely to be next FED chair though, that all said.. you just never know. Putin must meet Zelensky first (WH official), they might all meet in UAE by the looks >>> equitiy markets (MAG7) feel a little toppy, but nothing more, #HSI off highs, few clear weak spots wiht consumers backing off, but no drama, yet anyway. USDollar might get a little more volatile wiht the GOLD news, reval talks, Miran etc.. (NOT a coincidence this is happening together..) NY Fed: Inflation Expectations tick UP ; consumers more optimistic about taxes and their financial situations GOLD isn’t just an asset anymore. It’s becoming the ‘backbone of a new global system’ U.S 'continued claims' : Claims Surge 1,974,000 — the highest since Trump’s tariffs took effect, layoffs rising, growth slowing  and warning signs flashing Israeli PM Netanyahu says he plans to take full military control of Gaza, and later hand it over to civilian governance “that is not Hamas.” Trump Says Intel CEO ‘Must Resign Immediately’ >>> then I wonder how many other CEO's of U.S company shared their technology with China in last few years...and are potentially 'conflicted'... !! White House: Trump signed an executive order to allow 401(k) investors to access alternative assets for better returns and diversification Once again, and eventually this will matter, tariffs are taxes paid by American importers, not foreign countries, government or sorporations, meaning the money “flowing in that Lutinick claims, or Bessent..” is actually coming (or shared by a few in between at best) from US businesses and consumers, not China, India or anyone else Comments from UBS's Donovan on GOLD - worth a listen ! OUCH ! ubs.com/content/dam/assets/wm/global/cio/market-insights/paul-donovan-daily-insights/2025/dailyupdate-20250808.mp3?campID=UC:E:601227:601241:269449152:0:2127107254:2127104526:en:0 Market Quick Take - 8 August 2025 | Saxo And also well worth reading this one, about 'SPREADS', Comex spreads etc Need more gold .. Trump plans massive renovation of White House Apple's Tim Cook gives US-made gift to President Trump - BBC News Inflation Expectations Tick Up; Consumers More Optimistic about Taxes and Their Financial Situations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin proposes new location for Trump talks as Kremlin rejects Zelensky meeting Trump to nominate economic advisor Stephen Miran to be new Fed governor, replacing Kugler Nick Timiraos on X: "Last year, Miran and a co-author decried the "revolving door" between the Fed and the executive branch. "Short-circuiting the revolving door between the Fed and the executive branch is critical to reducing the incentives for officials to act in the short-term political" / X US tariffs of 39% come into force for Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Toyota cuts forecast as Trump tariffs cost $2.9 billion in a single quarter Asian shares mostly climb after a rally for Apple led Wall Street higher Lilly and Novo Nordisk stocks whipsawed by Wall Street Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Says Finances at 'Point of No Return' Trump calls for Intel’s CEO to go. Lawmakers have focused on his ties to China. Israel's security cabinet approves plan to take full control of Gaza City - LBC Trump Says Intel CEO 'Must Resign Immediately' Trump, on that basis, can probably fire many of them CEO's...