U.S Govt shutdown : 15th Oct key date / Auto repossession ⏫ / XAU 4K / Q3 earnings season next up

Stéphan
Oct 8
3 min read

Markets : 7th day of US Govt shutdown (Oct. 15th is the date, when 1.3 million Defense Department paychecks are due to bounce if no deal), German IP -4.3% in Aug (auto sector -18.5% - U.S. market too, 2025 on course for the Highest Auto repossession volume in recorded history, nearly 3mio cars set to be seized — CUReposession), GOLD $4'000, silver $50+ soon, XPT, PALL, Copper all up, with 3Q reporting season to kick off in the US next week, Goldman Sachs notes that the S&P 500 is again expected beat consensus EPS estimates. Management commentary around capex and AI infrastructure demand will be crucial to the sustainability of the AI trade, and the new JPN leader failed to reach agreement on maintaining two parties coalition >>> FED cuts won't help fix bankruptcies in auto loans or student loan delinquencies, tricky period ahead
Geopolitics : Trump no longer intends to pursue a diplomatic agreement with Venezuela, a military conflict becomes more and more likely, Hamas reveals its ceasefire conditions as Trump expresses optimism for ‘peace in Middle East’, Zelensky accuses Putin of using oil tankers for spying and sabotage missions
Trade : EU to halve steel import quotas to preserve domestic industry
UBS Fund's 30% Stake in First Brands Group #riskconcentration !
Fed governor Stephen Miran backed continued rate cuts, warning that policy risked being too tight in the face of slowing momentum
For everyone hung up on Polymarket odds (or CDS implied default risk) remember- Implied probability is not actual probability. This applies across all financial markets. Which are full of sleeping racehorses/Thread
OpenAI deals scepticism | A wave of deals involving Nvidia and OpenAI is sparking concerns that an increasingly complex web of transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom. (BBG)
The US stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio is up to a record 221%