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DB & Einhorn on AI bubble / U.S Govt shutdown risk / Precious metals up / Moldova / Week ahead

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • Sep 29
  • 3 min read

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  • ‘Buffett Indicator’ for stock valuation passes 200%, beyond level he once said is ‘playing with fire’

  • Markets : U.S govt shutdown risk as Trump shrugs off impending shutdown as parties deadlock, Fed outlook, FED cut is 90% priced in for Oct and a 70% chance of another in December, though strong jobs data could slow the pace of easing, the AI boom is unsustainable unless tech spending goes ‘parabolic,’ Deutsche Bank warns: ‘This is highly unlikely’, precious metals keep on trucking, XAG, PLAT, PALL and Gold hitting pretty hefty levels (>> Gold is a financial asset, the only financial asset, held by nearly all central banks, with no corresponding liability, makes it the base), huge momentum last week, Gold was 21% of global assets in 1980, today it is about 5%, Moldova moves closer to Europe >>> Week ahead: Market looking for Goldilocks in the jobs report

  • Geopolitics : President Trump has authorized long-range strikes into Russia, Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg says -- but occasionally Ukraine has not been granted authority by the Pentagon to carry them out/Thread, Trump sends troops to Chicago, drones were spotted in many NATO countries over weekend, seems provocation in full swing

  • China runs massive current account surpluses. It pegs its currency to USD, so it has to buy lots of Dollars to stop its currency from rising. China used to put those Dollars into Treasuries, but that isn't a good idea any more. So China builds huge inventories in basic metals/Thread

  • Fannie Mae on if we want affordable homes again: 1. Prices must crash by -38%, or: 2. Incomes must rise by +60%, or: 3. Mortgage rates must crash by -415 bps For any of these 3 things, something massive would have to happen to the macroeconomy >>> how about building a LOT more of them

  • #XAGUSD you know our long held though on this one, the markets will be allowed to run hot, deficit spending of 100% will be embraced, because the alternative; losing the new Cold War, is an unthinkable outcome. This is why SILVER gets a double boost. It is both a monetary metal, a hedge against the coming currency crisis, and a critical industrial metal, essential for everything from solar panels, data centers, robots, advanced weaponry, and so much more. Silver is the perfect asset for the era we are now entering










Famous HF manager David Einhorn : The AI boom that everyone’s chasing today could become the biggest capital-destruction event since the dot-com bust














 
 
 

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