UKR-RU war intensifies / Countdown to U.S Govt shutdown / OpenAI valuations / Trump's tariffs hurting US

Stéphan
Sep 30
4 min read

'Could be devastating': US soybean Farmers warn of bankruptcies amid trade shift, according to the US Secretary of Agriculture herself, Trump's bailout of Argentina means that US taxpayers are now effectively subsidizing Argentinian soybean exports to China - the very market American farmers have been shut out of
Markets : No Friday NFP (and other data) if U.S Govt shuts down, countdown is on, S&P 500 executed buybacks are now > $1 trillion YTD, U.S farmers, car sector First Brands files for bankruptcy) under real pressure, RBA unch as expected (sticky! inflation worries - across board, not just Australia), Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency, Open AI annual sales $8.6bn, Market valuation $500bn and high cash burn (it is all ok until it isn't) >>> markets look a little 'overcooked, AI thematic mainly, HSI on highs, GDX and the likes have had a superb run, we've taken some profit on longs there, got a little overdone into quarter-end, a correction would be welcome! but overall on ehas to 'own' assets in this new era of monetary policy/debasement currencies etc
Geopolitics : Tusk: “The war in Ukraine is our war”, '''Ukraine should not behave as if it is independent. If the West does not give it money, it will disappear, it will be the end-says Orban.... Hungary is reliant on the same West for its economy and protection...During meeting with Trump, Netanyahu agrees to U.S. peace plan for Gaza,
Trade : Trump is imposing a 100% tariff on any movies made outside of the US (?), more tariffs on timber, furniture...
The Met Police has made the single largest cryptocurrency seizure in the world, currently worth more than £5.5 billion, Rachel Reeves will be happy #budget
Outspoken, Alex Karp has laid out a rescue plan for EU... He warns that Europe risks losing its industrial heart. Years of wrong decisions in energy, immigration, and technology now demand courage, toughness, and honesty. Karp offers Germany 5 uncomfortable truths: Bring entrepreneurs into politics, Establish special zones for technology, Play to Germany’s strengths, Acknowledge that this is a crisis, Rebuild deterrence
Gold hit a new record. What Deutsche Bank says is driving the price of the metal: Hartnett explains the rise in precious metals as driven by inflationary policies, a return of a "bull market in war." He justified staying long gold even though its "tactically overbought" because it remains "structurally under-owned" at just 0.4% of Bank of America's private client wealth and 2.4% of institutional assets under management
Trump says he will not give federal funding to NYC if Mamdani is elected. "Remember he needs the money from me... He won't be getting any of it." We're now living in a full-blown authoritarian dictatorship. First of all, that's not his money. And NY pays more to the federal government than it receives
Barrick CEO Mark Bristow resigns (immediately, without explanation). Newmont Mining CEO Tom Palmer announces his retirement (end of year) and gold's up another $58 to a record $3,824, as the melt-up continues >>>> it's not anymore about cutting cost and low production, it is now full on new 'debasement' world and higher production...long-term bullish but we've reached some pretty hefty levels by the end of Q3 !