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Saxo/NFP : One of those impossible US jobs reports. Ridiculous blowout on establishment survey (NFPs) beating over +200k incl. revisions, but household survey spikes UR to 3.7% from 3.4% with no participation rate pickup. Earnings weaker than exp despite yet another drop in weekly hours.... US Q1 unit labor costs 4.2% vs 6.0% expected, ISM Prices Paid 44.2 (exp 52.3), ISM Manuf supplier deliveries collapse, index fell to 43.5 in May, lowest since March 2009, ADP stronger though at 278K, Initial jobless claims steady at 232k >>> bumper employment data and low inflation, however a note of cautious : May ⁦Challenger job cut announcements rose 287% y/y vs. 176% in prior month; tech sector led the pack with 22,887 cuts in May & total of 137k YTD, the most for the sector since 2009 Job Cuts From AI Are Just Beginning, the Latest Challenger Report Suggests "The magnitude and duration of defaults in the next downturn is likely to surprise investors, based on our client conversations....We believe US HY, US Loan, and European spec-grade default rates will peak at 9%, 11.3%, and 5.8% in Q4’24:" DB's Default Study 2023 "More than 100% of SPX market cap gains this year have been driven by just 7 stocks with 3 stocks accounting for nearly 70%....S&P 500 is up 9.1% led by Tech (+30%) while Russell 2000 is down 0.8% and the equal weight S&P 500 is 1.1% lower:" Citi's Stuart Kaiser (...concentration of risk). Lagarde : The ECB is likely to move more cautiously from here - "we'll keep hiking, but...", "having hiked so far and so fast – considerable tightening is still in the pipeline Monzo ramps up provisions for debts turning sour >>> the 'buy now and pay later' become 'buy now and pay never' An entire movie was generated by AI. Every single pixel you see on link below is fake. An update on the number of AI related mentions on earnings calls and other transcripts of publicly traded companies: {Data from TA} - Thread below About 1.6mln UK mortgages fixed at rates under 2% set to end between now & Q3 2024 BOFA CEO Moynihan says US consumer spending is slowing Elon Musk is accused of insider trading by investors in Dogecoin lawsuit and The average price of a used Tesla is $22k lower than the peak last July. Now at a new all-time low due to huge price cuts & shift in supply to lower priced models Markets : Commodity prices over the last year - see below Thread >>> ''they may start to turn with weaker usd'', as rates pause/peak/skip etc.. STOCKS expect some kind of straight line earnings growth of about 20% through 2025 & BONDS are pricing the deepest rate cuts cycle of all time (pretty much) to begin sometimes over the next 6-9months >>> this seems rather hopeful! Nikkei near all time highs, KOSPI in near bull market, China /HSI the other way, India near record highs though too, not all up or down, same as megacaps vs RTY etc USDollar starts the month on weak side , gives away soonest the month-end fix is done, slightly weaker data overall, let's see what NFP does now VIX lower, new recent lows, clearly helping eq markets overall/systematic etc Oops - that wasn’t supposed to happen post-debt ceiling. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) SPX was +0.3% in May >>>> while SEVEN sectors were down over 4% (healthcare, financials, utilities, energy, materials, staples and realestate) Job Cuts From AI Are Just Beginning, the Latest Challenger Report Suggests - Bloomberg yeps.. Bank of Canada will ‘actively’ talk about rate hikes after GDP surprise, experts say (msn.com) A U.S. envoy’s tongue-lashing of South Africa infuriates Foggy Bottom - POLITICO Crypto is lackadaisical right now, says Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz (cnbc.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Commodity price changes over the last year… Sugar: +29% Silver: +8% Gold: +7% US CPI: +4.9% Copper: -16% Corn: -19% Soybeans: -23% Coffee: -25% Brent Crude: -38% Cotton: -39% Gasoline: -40% WTI Crude: -41% Zinc: -42% Wheat: -43% Lumber: -43% Heating Oil: -46% Natural Gas: -74%" / Twitter >>> though after 7 straight monthly declines following the peak last July, Used Car prices have been moving higher again, up 5% in March-May... Sofia Horta e Costa on Twitter: "As Chinese stocks slump, indexes in India are near a record, in Japan near a three-decade high and the Kospi in South Korea is about to enter a bull market. @IshikaMookerjee writes about the structural reallocation of capital in Asia - away from China. https://t.co/c4YrrIhYAO https://t.co/9ybtXXkT3S" / Twitter Dr. Eli David on Twitter: "This entire movie was generated by AI. Every single pixel you see here is fake 🤯 RIP Hollywood ⚰️ https://t.co/VlIIv8zb5g" / Twitter jeroen blokland on Twitter: "YIKES! The #ISM Manufacturing Index for New Orders dropped to 42.6 in May, which is closer to, but not yet at, #recession levels. https://t.co/UTiwa1pPOo" / Twitter >>> "Manufacturers and their supply chains have seen pricing power shift rapidly from the seller to the buyer over the course of the past year, resulting in a dramatic cooling of industrial price pressures." Michael McDonough on Twitter: "An update on the number of AI related mentions on earnings calls and other transcripts of publicly traded companies: {Data from TA<Go>} *No shock here, it's gone vertical https://t.co/Alu1jrGqzk" / Twitter Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Deflation is coming to the Euro zone. It's an interesting psychological phenomenon that everyone followed company delivery times when they were stretched & inflationary in 2021, but no one's following then now that they're deflationary. Euro zone core inflation will keep falling. https://t.co/omN6VwsBWq" / Twitter European Central Bank on Twitter: "Our rate hikes are already feeding into lending conditions, President @Lagarde says at #Sparkassentag. We will keep moving forward until we see inflation returning to 2%, while also carefully assessing how our policies are passing through to the economy https://t.co/LheYq7L3eh https://t.co/IlBsMWVlNF" / Twitter Monzo ramps up provisions for debts turning sour (msn.com) Dimon Hints at Life After JPMorgan, Says He’d Consider Public Office (yahoo.com) Euro inflation slumps faster than expected to 6.1 per cent (cityam.com) Long Covid: one in five patients still report symptoms after two years - SWI swissinfo.ch Dogecoin investors accuse Elon Musk of insider trading in amended class-action lawsuit (cointelegraph.com) never too early ! Boris Johnson says he has handed over Covid WhatsApps - BBC News Smiley seal spotted in Ely becomes social media hit - BBC News US deal could plug Turkmenistan’s colossal methane emissions | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian have a great weekend Team PVM

U.S debt ceiling drama over, they all got their air time live on TV, all hype and a nothing burger, defund the IRS, fiscal inconsistence, make noise then back down, as they say in Texas ''all hat and no cattle''.. Fedspeak: hear overnight from Boston Fed President Collins, Governor Bowman, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, and Governor Jefferson. Harker and Jefferson (both FOMC participants; ), expressed a preference for “skipping” a rate hike in June (skipping does not mean a cut clearly) >>> ADP set to report slightly slower job gains, but focus more on NFIB hiring plans America’s credit card balance has passed $1 trillion, or it’s about to, depending on whom you ask. The average interest rate on a new card is 24 percent, the highest figure since the Reaganomics era. A typical American household now carries $10,000 in credit card debt (student loan debt is $1.4trn) ‘You don’t want to pick up your trash, don’t come to the mountain,’ mountaineer Tenzi Sherpa said, as he shared visuals of trash left behind on Mount Everest U.S regional model for ISM Manufacturing falling off a cliff this week, forecasts an ISM Manufacturing Index off of 45.9 >>>> but still plenty of jobs out there : JOLTS : Job Openings 10.103MM, Exp. 9.4MM, Last 9.745MM Banks now have $515.6 billion in unrealized losses, per FDIC as of Q1 Germany : consumers have gone on a buyers' strike (inflation and negativ real wages hurting..), retail sales slumped 8.6% in Apr, much higher than expected, mainly driven by a drop in food purchases of ~10%. Shows that Q2 also got off to a weak start. Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us Markets : USdollar at risk of having peaked into month-end (short-term), particularly IF the Fed skips June, nothing dramatic, if/when, the next hike will get priced in July - more of tactical move SPX500, U.S markets and europe had a 'slight' loss of momentum into month-end too, but again nothing too dramatic, for now anyway. Big picture, we think valuatons far too high, eventual manufacturing recession, China, commods, crude, industrial metals etc could well weigh on rest of markets eventually, as rates start to bite AND challenging liquidity (see below) Crude >>> OPEC+ meets on 4th June with Crude below $70, when Saudi's have a budget rate of $80... -Bonds shifting Fed hike from June to July, ECB nailed on for June, market expectations might shift from 2 or 3 hikes to 1 or 2 hikes coming over next few months Debt ceiling deal: US House overwhelmingly passes bill - BBC News Drama over. Surging temple and lottery stocks mirror China's weak recovery | Reuters Shares in some Chinese temple operators and lottery sellers surged for a second day on Thursday amid a weak post-COVID recovery, as despondent young people rush to pray or gamble amid greater economic uncertainty, strewth! Challenging liquidity 1. Potent liquidity squeeze, as Treasury refills its TGA account – rates rise to effect required Fed B/S outflows (assuming QT at current pace) 2. QT meant nothing YTD, it will mean something now 3. TGA dynamics flip from a 3% addition to nominal GDP over past 5 months to a potential drawdown nearing 10% of GDP in the next 3 months (TS Lombard's Steve Blitz) Cyber-Hack bei Bitcoin Suisse reicht viel weiter - Inside Paradeplatz Reuters on Twitter: "‘You don’t want to pick up your trash, don’t come to the mountain,’ mountaineer Tenzi Sherpa said, as he shared visuals of trash left behind on Mount Everest https://t.co/dYZxcN1j7r" / Twitter totally ridiculous, scandalous in fact, discusting Some Things We've Learned This Year - A Wealth of Common Sense Don't listen to CNBC ? :-) ... #inversecramer ! jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#Germany's #retailsales were down a whopping 8.6% from a year ago in April. Compared to March, they were up 0.8% As the chart shows, German retail sales have been volatile, but the trend is down. https://t.co/zXW9y9ma7L" / Twitter jeroen blokland on Twitter: "Glass half full? #China's Caixin Manufacturing #PMI came in higher than expected and is back above 50. This compares to the 'official' Manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.8. The average of the two remains below 50, but given the market reaction yesterday, this is welcome news. https://t.co/wEEnerTV33" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Many AI stocks have more than doubled, and in some cases quadrupled, YTD. #Nvidia is 1st chip stock that was even worth a trillion dollars for a short time. Is Generative AI the next tech bubble? That's what we're arguing about on this week's DuZ podcast. https://t.co/MLbJTYQ0no https://t.co/sqcRlnRvRy" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Dallas Fed PMI off a cliff yesterday. Chicago PMI off a cliff today. Here is our fitted regional model for ISM Manufacturing. It does NOT look pretty from here in the Manufacturing Sector. https://t.co/7ENN4rfn2k" / Twitter Americans now owe $1 TRILLION in credit card debt (msn.com) Deutsche Bank expects a big jump in corporate defaults. Here's why. - MarketWatch The Block: Binance lays off non-performers amid shrinking market share What Rishi Sunak is Trying to Hide with his WhatsApp Cover-Up – Byline Times For all the talk of 'precedents' and good governance, the real motivation for the Prime Minister's refusal to disclose information to the Covid Inquiry is his own self-protection Stanford Medical Professor: 'Aliens 100% Live Among Us' (breitbart.com) Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us......ok then beware folks! Jamie Dimon on China: «There’ll Be Less Trade» (finews.asia) UK house prices fall by most since 2009, higher rates to bite-Nationwide | Reuters They had rallied far too much in previous covid years..

Very few U.S.-China flights are back despite the end of Covid, Fewer than 6% of U.S. flights to and from mainland China that existed in 2019 have resumed, pretty astonishing data, China manufacturing PMI dips in May (48.8), falls short of expectations. Key manufacturing gauge underscores unstable post-COVID recovery US Debt Limit: The House Rules Committee has met to decide if the debt limit bill gets a full vote. Two far-right Republicans on the panel oppose it, and a GOP backbencher called for Kevin McCarthy's ouster. House passage on Wednesday is critical to getting Senate approval by the Monday deadline FED pricing has been a little more hawkish since mid May >> now market pricing in about 1 more hike in June, before 1 to2 cuts by end of 2023 Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS are still down UK : The “shy capitalists” want more of their own money, not toxic culture wars South Africa grants Putin and Brics leaders diplomatic immunity for summit First regional inflation prints surprised massively to the downside, with North Rhine Westphalia CPI 1% below exp in May >>> very decent downside surprises in French CPI (for example) and a big MoM drop in the PPI too, ''disinflation has arrived'' Fidelity marks Twitter valuation down to $15bn, that's a 3rd of what Musk paid for it The White House says "we do not support attacks inside of Russia" following the drone strikes in Moscow. The statement also said, their "focus is on helping Ukraine re-take its sovereign territory" ECB's Müller : probably too optimistic to see ECB rate cut in early 2024 Markets : Crude WTI dropping back below $70, as a Fed hike in June become more likely following PCE, and OPEC+ seems likely to leave output unchanged at 4th June meeting, some chatters of 'no bids in Brent for july'.. EU NatGas lower lower, so cheap now again !!.. EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote (tradingeconomics.com) USD firmer again, weak european and China data overnight, USDCNH 7.12 (AUDUSD sub 0.6500), while EURUSD sub 1.0750, it should stay offered The divergences between various parts of the markets are beginning to be quite alarming IMHO, it all 'looks well' to very well (NVDA, AI, well overbought now, but in reality it isn't pretty underneath AI and megacaps Commods : “China Logistics Information Center says the key problem with China’s economy is insufficient new demand, which leads to decreasing raw material purchases by companies” Wednesday briefing: What’s behind the drone attacks on Russia | Russia | The Guardian Fidelity Values Twitter At Roughly $15 Billion—A Third Of The Sticker Price Paid By Musk (forbes.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "German #disinflation continues. Import prices dropped 7% YoY in April, the most since corona crisis in 2020. https://t.co/SsWzPS9AHK" / Twitter Very few U.S.-China flights are back despite the end of Covid (cnbc.com) China manufacturing PMI dips in May, falls short of expectations - Nikkei Asia JPMorgan China CEO Says Expansion Taking Longer Than Expected - Caixin Global Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E (blue) has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS (orange) are still down https://t.co/8KF0N59lwQ" / Twitter "Shy capitalists" want more of their money, not toxic culture wars (cityam.com) Goldman Sachs cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump (cnbc.com) South Africa grants Putin and Brics leaders diplomatic immunity for summit | South Africa | The Guardian >>> USDZAR getting close to 20 ZAR/USD Rand Hits Fresh Record Low as South Africa Risks Stack Up - Bloomberg Nvidia shares go under the BridgeWise AI analysis microscope (thearmchairtrader.com) Bitcoin (BTC) Trades at a 20% Discount on Binance Australia Following Banking Issues in the Country (coindesk.com) COVID inquiry: Rishi Sunak accused of being 'slippery' over order to hand over Boris Johnson WhatsApp messages | Politics News | Sky News more lies, more cover up Best for Britain on Twitter: "How bad can you look in an 80-second clip. This bad. 👇🏽 The skill of a politician is to stick to their answer without looking like a myna bird, rocking on its perch, just mimicking human speech. ~AA https://t.co/uLmCE5tWoO" / Twitter he sounds more like a ChatGPT PM.. Sudanese army suspends talks over ceasefire - diplomatic source | Reuters Prince Harry's drugs admissions prompt US government to face court over visa application (telegraph.co.uk) Hang Seng 20% down YTD - pretty horrible chart

Busy week ahead, with inflation data in JPN and euroe, U.S JOLTS tom, China Caixin data on Thursday and U.S NFP Friday (with the usual US debt ceiling drama and AI boom) U.S debt ceiling doing what that 'China trade deal' was doing, ''buy the rumour and sell the fact' by the time they get there. -2- Republicans speak out against US debt-ceiling deal, in sign of rocky road ahead Hot PCE Data on Friday : Core PCE inflation came in stronger than expected, rising 0.380% m-o-m in April (Consensus was at 0.3%), expectations for June hike all but baked, what next though is where the market 'diverge' China turns down U.S. invitation for defense chiefs meeting. Pentagon proposed Lloyd Austin sit down with Li Shangfu, who is under sanction. A heat wave is sweeping across China, with #Guangzhou recording its highest temperature for May on Tuesday, hitting a record 38.5℃ Spanish prime minister calls for early general election UK shop prices hit highest levels since BRC records began..some 18y ago Twitter leaves EU’s voluntary pact against disinformation After Turkey election win, what problems does Erdogan face next? Economic concerns and relations with the West lie at the top of Erdogan’s agenda after presidential run-off victory Markets : U.S PCE pushing rates higher, taking USD with is, risk still doing OK, mainly fulled by AI it is fair to say, though SPX popping its head above 4200 on 'favourable debt ceiling' outcome USD stronger overall, higher yields etc GOLD breaking through key support $1950 NVDA, NQ leading AI, SPX500 popping its head above 4200, Asia weak though Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators Commodity Weekly: Is the commodity rally over? | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Why have the Bank of England and the IMF been so wrong on the UK economy? (cityam.com) ...old style institutions that never adapted to the new world.. Spanish prime minister calls for early general election (cnbc.com) After Turkey election win, what problems does Erdogan face next? | Elections News | Al Jazeera Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇮🇹 #ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 3.5% Y/Y (largest decline since Sep. 2020) - BBG *ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 6.5% M/M https://t.co/xbl07MnELP" / Twitter ''Another piece of encouraging news from Spain suggesting core inflation dynamics have peaked'' Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, where high inflation has eaten away record wage gains. Nominal wages rose by 5.6% YoY in Q1, the highest measured nominal wage increase for a quarter since the series began in 2008. But CPI rose by 8.3% in Q1, so real wages printed at -2.3%. At least… https://t.co/INq12lBnHf" / Twitter Shop price inflation reaches record high, figures show | This Is Local London Bundesbank Warns Losses From Bond Purchases Will Wipe Out Buffers - WorldNewsEra This is from early march, but this conversation has come across our recent meetings with clients, thought it might be worth a read again Twitter quits EU’s voluntary disinformation pact | Cybernews Market for Swiss chalets cools down after Covid price boom - SWI swissinfo.ch Lack of snow a little of an issue for many 'lower' resorts, cost of water cannons ? cost of energy ?..2nd and 3rd home tax may well eventually go higher, and finally CHF too strong got many in Europe and around the world Swiss government supports selling tanks back to Germany - SWI swissinfo.ch not neutral anymore.. Jeremy Hunt comfortable with recession if it brings down inflation (telegraph.co.uk) great stuff, strewth IAEA resolves nuclear issues with Iran - Iranian Media | Reuters USDCNH - in perspective

So we have the SPX500 ceiling at 4200 that hel for 9months and the U.S debt ceiling Fitch puts United States’ AAA rating on negative watch, citing debt ceiling fight From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants,“It was quite science fiction at the very beginning but it became true today,” said Dr. Jocelyne Bloch, co-leader and a neurosurgeon at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland.... early days still, BUT amazing stuff !! FOMC: "Participants generally expressed uncertainty about how much more policy tightening may be appropriate. Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting." >>> we moved from 10bp cut in July to a full hike priced in now within 2 weeks..>>> Fed terminal rate creeps higher to 5.25% as Fed minutes slightly hawkish MSCI emerging markets are also back to flat for the year - China reopening story pretty short-lived (+more about higher rates for longer?..) FT-Gold : “It’s hard to push back against an asset with a 5,000-year history of providing wealth,” UK set to win multi-billion pound battle with Spain for Jaguar Land Rover EV battery plant, finally some +ve news in UK RIP Tina Turner - simply the best! First private fully automated vault in Switzerland Germany suffered a winter (light..) recession, fresh data shows, with first-quarter output dropping 0.3% versus initial estimate of 0% Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio. Geopolitics push 'Oracle of Omaha' to move away from China and invest in Japan BOJ's Ueda reaffirms to patiently continue with monetary easing...plus ca change.. Markets : NVDA up about 200bn$in market cap terms after hours, lifting the whole complex back, I know I know it 'often' doesn't mater these days.. but that's a P/E of 180 or so by now.. Everybody got excited about the break out in SPX, got sucked in, just to realize that the "fat and flat" narrative remains intact. The big range is intact, and for the short term, we are approaching the first supports around 4100..SPX500 - the 'other ceiling' around 4200. HangSeng down 8% in last 8 trading days too, EMG equities and CSI300 giving up 2023 gains too >>> again, megacaps doing ok, but it isn't that pretty underneath EURUSD braking through key trend line support around 1.0760, KIWI got hammered, AUD following, USDJPY near 140 again, USDCHF finding it's mojo back above .90+, GOLD and other metals lower ALL about UST's with 2's back t 4.40% ahead of U.S claims today and PCE tomorrow, UST's leads USD higher and eventually equity markets come under pressure, momentum and therefore sentiment can shift quickly Fitch puts U.S. AAA rating on negative watch over debt ceiling (cnbc.com) The Fed - Monetary Policy: (federalreserve.gov) Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q1 2024 (cnbc.com) Companies are talking about 'recession' less. Economic data helps explain why. (yahoo.com) From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants (msn.com) this is phenomenal ! Paralysed man walks again thanks to 'digital bridge' that wirelessly reconnects brain and spinal cord | Science & Tech News | Sky News whaooo UK to win multi-bn pound battle with Spain for Jaguar battery plant (cityam.com) That's a big win - 9'000 jobs eventually The new gold boom: how long can it last? | Financial Times (ft.com) Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio - Nikkei Asia "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t | ZeroHedge what a sad state of affairs !! Reuters on Twitter: "The raging wildfires in western Canada have wiped out more than two million acres of land in Alberta. Officials said Australia and New Zealand are set to send assistance to help tame the blaze https://t.co/AXP29U0bTu" / Twitter whaoo! Queen of Rock ‘n’ Roll Tina Turner dies aged 83 - SWI swissinfo.ch Yes, Prime Minister S02E04 - A Conflict Of Interest - video Dailymotion 1987 - could have been written 6months ago ! great stuff :-) Heim | Safebox24 AG Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on China's battered trusts and their attempts to clean up the surge in nonperforming assets and risky loans on their books. China's 68 trusts have RMB 22 billion of assets. https://t.co/CufpyjwXAC" / Twitter OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says Elon Musk was a mentor. But he doesn’t share Musk’s enthusiasm for Mars | Fortune Chinese premier holds talks with Russian counterpart - World - Chinadaily.com.cn Severn Trent dividend exceeds £260m amid rising anger over sewage pollution | Severn Trent | The Guardian jus say sorry , who cares,. move on.. EURUSD here, but as noted 2weeks ago '''eurusd lost momentum 1.10+', UST lead, USD follows, and eventually equity notice

Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike, mamma mia! The French government published a decree Tuesday that banned domestic commercial airline flights for journeys possible in less than two-and-a-half hours by train, will it work? US Data Tuesday was mixed: Flash PMI data on services was a beat but manufacturing a miss (UK, Germany, much the same..), US debt ceiling impasse: Negotiations extend as: As funds run short, Treasury asks agencies if payments can be made later. Senior Biden aides are rummaging through the nation’s books, looking for new ways to conserve cash while Washington battles over the debt ceiling “We can have a dramatically more prosperous future; but we have to manage risk to get there,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote ''At last! UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since August''.. It was 8.7% YoY in April, going in the right direction, BUT core higher...not great clearly!! >> June hike nailed on! and 'peak' rates up to 5.5% immediately.. Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recovery. Geologist, James Cooper, offers his take on why developers could be entering a Goldilocks period as the lithium sector braces for a recovery The IMF has today joined a group of top economic institutions in DITCHING its call that the UK will suffer a tough recession this year and Top officials at the Bank of England today admitted they have undershot the strength of inflation, with governor Andrew Bailey confessing the central bank has some “very big” lessons to learn over how it sets interest rates -The US Secret Service said it had detained the driver of a rented box truck that crashed into security barriers near the White House, perhaps intentionally, but that there were no injuries or ongoing danger RBNZ hikes 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, 2 dissent and a pause discussed >> NZD down almost 2% Netflix password-sharing crackdown rolls out in the U.S. China PM Li Qiang meets with Russia's Mishustin in Beijing. China and Russia sign MOU on service trade cooperation >>> overall CHINA data is much weaker than many economist expected few months back...!!, regional bankruptcies, copper, LVMH (luxury sector), bridges to nowhere (article yesterday)..all pretty bad signs on the economy there Markets : SPX500 'never' closed above 4200, 'may' be running out of steam ahead of VERY key data over next24hours, with PCE tomorrow, rates been ratcheting up lately. DAX topped at ATH's levels too, slight loss of momentum in short-term ahead of KEY macro data, and CSI 300 Index drops by 1.1%, erases 2023 gains. Luxury stocks topped out and got sold fairly hard yesterday too USDollar will follow rates (2x UST up to 4.3%), CROSSJPY's had a good rally on +ve risk and higher global yields, all about macro U.S data and PCE GOLD held where it should have for the bulls - $1950, Copper down again U.S debt ceiling drama continues, beginning to think they kick the can down the road to after the summer.. Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply. LME stockpiles build up rapidly as European industrial activity cools U.S. Treasury asks about later payments as debt ceiling deadline nears - The Washington Post Monetary Policy Statement May 2023 - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua (rbnz.govt.nz) Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips (msn.com) Netflix password sharing crackdown starts in U.S. (cnbc.com) Ukraine war: US distances itself from Belgorod incursion into Russia - BBC News Los going on over there - hard to know exactly what's what..! A Poor Province in China Splurged on Bridges and Roads. Now It’s Facing a Debt Reckoning. - WSJ just fabUlous bridges! ithas ot be said, but.. >> Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 "Don’t look at Guizhou’s problem in isolation. Guizhou’s problem is also a national problem. Eventually, someone must pay for it. The question is who." This is the nub of the problem. https://t.co/k5LaY4kfje via @WSJ" / Twitter Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill admit they got it wrong on inflation (cityam.com) IMF ditches UK recession call, lifts GDP growth from bottom of G7 (cityam.com) Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recovery - James Cooper | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com) Altman and Pichai now want governments to regulate A.I. | Fortune Malaysian authorities raid Swatch stores over ‘Pride Collection’ - SWI swissinfo.ch “We strongly contest that our collection of watches using rainbow colours and having a message of peace and love could be harmful for whomever,” Swatch Group CEO Nick Hayek Jr. said in a statement Let's smash the political silence on Brexit - a Politics crowdfunding project in London by European Movement UK (crowdfunder.co.uk) Support for Brexit has plummeted. Only 32% of the public believe we were right to leave Europe*. So why are politicians so unwilling to admit there's a problem - let alone fix it? .... will 'a' party go for it at the next GE next year?.. Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike (cnbc.com) Driver detained as truck crashes near White House; Nazi flag found | Reuters Check out the flag on the floor.. Why Forcing Employees to Return to the Office Is Insane (businessinsider.com) Any thoughts on this ? Mostly symbolic or will it be enforced ? France banned short domestic flights to get tough on emissions (qz.com) LVHM got way overdone, china peaked again, 'longs beware' - luxury sector !

FED talks and expectations between a hike, a pause or cuts, now the chatters are for a 'skipp - skipping! , telegraphed by few Fed officials >>> wouldn't be too surprised if the ''debt ceiling can'' gets kicked into September too Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum . Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites. All eyes on impact of 4% pay rise at major firms, the largest in 30 years CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event >>> a reminder that CDS 'trading or hedging' is just a tool ahead of the event, rarely do they payout.. US Bank Deposits are down 5.6% from their peak last year, the largest drawdown we've seen since 1975 >>> no wonder if banks don't want to pay any or hardly any interest on deposits, funds will (continue to) go to MM Funds and UST's.. FT-“Germany recorded its highest level of foreign direct investment last year with a surge in UK companies setting up operations to retain a post-Brexit presence in the EU” Brexit has been a boom for other European countries! Russia : Putin will never stop his invasion of UKR >>> the only way it ever stops is if/when other Russian soldiers ''to their own things'' internally and through massive defections etc, Russian propaganda narratives are becoming increasingly gloomier and more anxious as the "special military operation" continues, Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia "Our call for a more meaningful decline in the S&P 500 in 1Q/1H23 has been wrong," Mike Wilson (a big bear giving up) Pretty extraordinary PMI numbers from Germany this morning. Manuf at 42.9 is in a sharp contraction Services at 57.8 are seeing quite a surge >>> so UK like (ECB can spin it as they wish going forward and skip!?) French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% Markets : Commodities, copper, steel all a little softer again, precious metals struggling too, XAUUSD pretty key support around $1950 area - chart below UST' doing some pretty strong 'tightening' work (no longer 75bps of cuts priced in by end of 2023!).., 2's back to 4.36!..higher for longer, skip (why not), the risk was always IMHO that a pause, a skip, does NOT mean cuts are coming as quickly as already priced by markets, thus the 'regional bank' risk will probably come back one way or another SPX500 4200, NQ, megacaps, small breath, RTY is all known, DAX near ATH's too Fed Officials Consider Skipping a Hike in June — But Don’t Call It a Pause - Bloomberg It's not a pause, it's a SKIP Ian Harnett on Twitter: "Sorry that we have to repeat this message - but the key reason to remain cautious is that the CREDIT CRUNCH FOR CORPORATES IS ONLY JUST STARTING… https://t.co/Az3XnJb72C" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is facing difficult demographic times. Old-age dependency ratio has already risen well >30: fewer than 3 people of working age face one person of retirement age. Only in Japan, Italy & Finland is the population even more over-aged. (HT @Tiefseher) https://t.co/WHt379fcEP" / Twitter Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "An organization calling themselves "Freedom of Russia Legion" published a video on their Telegram channel. "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship! Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home! Russia will be free!" They said after criticizing… https://t.co/9a7p31em82" / Twitter LOTS of those type of comments/action on Twitter these days, looks like internals are rising.. >>> The Post-Putin World Will Be So Much Better than This One – Real Context News (RCN) Russia-Ukraine war live: Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia (theguardian.com) etc etc.. Peace, food and fertilizer: African leaders' challenge heading to talks with Moscow, Kyiv | AP News S&P Global PMI™ on Twitter: "Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite #PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum. @jibunbank Read more: https://t.co/UqauL0swwF https://t.co/m96DBJwXhn" / Twitter and yet ...they still doing QE, YCC etc Neue Nord-Stream-Theorie: Deutsche Ermittler haben wohl entscheidende neue Spuren entdeckt. Sie führen in die Ukraine (weltwoche.ch) That's another twist to the plot of who bombed the Nord-Stream pipeline.. The London Economic on Twitter: "Yvette Cooper struck quite the nerve with Suella Braverman 👀⏬ https://t.co/PXZikcTLAh" / Twitter Suella Braverman did ‘nothing untoward’ by allegedly seeking private speeding course | The Independent >>> The issue is not her having a 1on1 course. It’s asking Civil Servants to arrange for it. It was a private matter, nothing to do with her public duties CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event - Bloomberg Also called in some corners ''financial manipulation' Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites - Nikkei Asia Why car parks are the hottest space in solar power - BBC News Fact Check: Was There an Explosion at the Pentagon? (newsweek.com) MAD AI !.. Here's Why the US Doesn't Have to Pay Off Its $31 Trillion Debt: Krugman (businessinsider.com) Can I also not repay my debt ? French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% | BT | The Guardian $1950 XAUUSD is the level +

G7 is really something of the past in GDP terms vs RoW (Thread-chart) Quel drama : US Debt Ceiling: Debt ceiling talks are back on. Biden and McCarthy agreed to resume negotiations over avoiding a default a day after both sides broke off contact amid partisan finger-pointing. The House speaker said he had a "productive" call with the president, who's returning from G7, and that they'd meet in person today China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects >> at G7 : Biden Says US-China Relations Set to Improve ‘Very Shortly’. US president says ‘silly balloon’ derailed ties with China FT - Higher rates combined with rising pensions and healthcare costs are set to weigh on states’ finances Powell said Friday interest rates may not need to rise as high as previously expected with the bank crisis tightening credit conditions, even with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target ‘In a lot of the world, the clock has hit midnight’: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey (DAX all time highs..) WSJ-JPMorgan now has more than 13% of the nation’s deposits and 21% of all credit-card spending...concentration of risk? Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge Markets: BTC : often hear around ''if bitcoin can't really rally on a risk of US default, then..' -SPX500 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, but looking at DAX etc, the bears may well be more 'upset' in the short-term >>> pure game of low vol and liquidities piling into megacaps (mainly) USD showed/showing signs of strength since last week or so, as UST yields picked up again (TGA stories put a bit of pressure on UST prices). USDTRY nearly 20, USDZAR 19.50, even USDJPY had a great week last week overall (and yet USDCHF remains sickly..CHFJPY!) Crude, commods, stead near their recent lows G7 Summit communique released | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Debt ceiling talks a headline risk nuisance this week. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Fed’s Powell: Rate decisions made on 'meeting by meeting' after aggressive hikes (yahoo.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "The G7 really is something of the past. https://t.co/SYCRaVcUQR" / Twitter China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects - BBC News and Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "To put things into perspective: US Chipmakers are heavily reliant on #China. Companies like Qualcomm, Broadcom and Intel. deliver billions of chips to the country, which puts the components inside electronic products that are shipped all over the world. (via BBG) https://t.co/3gZ9qNKbLW" / Twitter Cover Story: China’s Effort to Move Mountain of ‘Hidden Debt’ Faces Uphill Climb - Caixin Global China calls in loans to Pakistan, Kenya, dozens more | Fortune Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge - Caixin Global phyron on Twitter: "CDS Volume is Miniscule and Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means... from GS DTCC data show just $11.6bn of gross notional at the end of March 2023, Miniscule in relationship to the markets. However, rather than signifying high odds of default, or indeed expect credit losses,… https://t.co/28EPRF2aki" / Twitter Ageing populations ‘already hitting’ governments’ credit ratings | Financial Times (ft.com) Ageing populations are hitting public finances across the world, with rating agencies warning that recent interest rate rises have increased the impact of higher pensions and healthcare costs Greece's ruling Conservatives win vote but fall short of majority | Reuters Northern Ireland elections: Sinn Fein on course to become largest party in local government as counting continues | Politics News | Sky News Deep freeze sets between Germany and Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Ukraine war live: Russia deploys 16 types of missiles in attack on Dnipro (telegraph.co.uk) Mount Etna eruption grounds flights at Sicily’s Catania airport | Evening Standard Flights resuming this morning though - good Adani Enterprises share price jumps 15% today, hits upper circuit; group stocks m-cap back above Rs 10 lakh cr | The Financial Express remember that Hindenburg story!.. good grief Japan creditors set to challenge Credit Suisse AT1 write down - SWI swissinfo.ch German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey | Reuters Why food bills aren't shrinking - five things to know - BBC News Braverman asked aides to help her avoid speeding points (thelondoneconomic.com) Where are all those Brexit benefits? (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Don't look too hard, you won't find many have a great start to the week team PVM

HIROSHIMA, Japan - G7 - The United States and the rest of the "Group of Seven" major economies will unveil new sanctions and export controls targeting Russia over its war against Ukraine, a U.S. official said ahead of a G7 summit in Japan Britain is banning Russian diamonds in a new wave of sanctions to pressure Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine as Rishi Sunak warns allies against complacency at the G7 summit in Japan The recession is just around the corner, 'they' all saying, by now it's consensus >>> and yet global yields are ripping higher AND stock markets hitting new highs (worth noting the weak breath though, megacaps vs RTY etc...) Applications for US unemployment benefits fell by most since 2021 following fraud-inflated figures in previous weeks. Initial unemployment claims fell by 22k to 242k. On an unadj basis, claims decreased by most in 2mths, to 215,810, largely due to a drop in Massachusetts FED's Logan said “the data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet,” calling for another rate hike in June China surpasses Japan as world's top auto exporter. Tesla EVs and Russian deliveries drive industry into lead Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking for an 8th week (Thread-chart) German PPI keeps falling - a good for CPI!... PPI dropped to 4.1% in April from 6.7% in March, so PPI now 3.1% below CPI... BoJ's Governor Ueda: My view is that the BoJ's QE adopted in 2001 has had limited effect in stimulating the economy - will you change YCC policy though ? Markets : DAX all time highs pretty much, 40% off that early October 2022 lows, during same period QQQ is up 35% (hourly charts bit overdone..), Nikkei highest levels since August 1990, AND of course AI stocks had a stonking year with the Russell flat for the year. SPX500 looks to be going through that 4150/4200 resistance zone too, looks like everyone is back to buy-the-dip mood then! USADollar stays strong(er), with CROSSJPY's motoring higher with higher global yields Crude and few commods showing signs of life, metals got chopped for the same reasons In pictures: G-7 opens with protests, remembrance, plenty of police - Nikkei Asia U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh Fed interest rate outlook (cnbc.com) First Thing: Zelenskiy to attend G7 in person as leaders prepare new Russian sanctions | US news | The Guardian Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "Ahead of tomorrow's remarks by #FederalReserve #Powell: Statements by several speakers so far this week have increased market expectations of another rate hike in June (see below) while also exposing the wide range of individual views--from the last hike was unnecessary to… https://t.co/EZu35qlHzZ" / Twitter Watch Elon Musk's full interview with CNBC's David Faber on Twitter, Tesla and A.I. advances It's long, but if you have time, it's pretty entertaining! The Nasdaq is on the verge of exhaustion, says famed technical strategist Tom DeMark - MarketWatch Jeremy Hunt offers Jaguar Land Rover £500m to keep factory in UK (thetimes.co.uk) Brexit such a success, Hunt has to bride JLR with 500mio £ to stick around UK on path away from recession as hiring and growth ramp up (cityam.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking for an 8th week. Total assets drop by $46.3bn to $8.457tn. Balances of the bank lending facilities shuffled around a little bit, as discount window & BTFP borrowing rose $3.7bn while credit extended to FDIC fell $4bn. Treasury holdings fell… https://t.co/Mh3zSwf0wo" / Twitter Russia blood diamonds are latest Kremlin sanction from UK (cityam.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Perhaps the idea of a full-blown regional bank crisis is off the table for now, but signs stress remain. Among them: banks keep tapping the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program for more loans. https://t.co/mkCbze1Wfg https://t.co/3nCWJsXK3c" / Twitter Ukraine war live: Russia unlikely to take Bakhmut soon, Wagner chief admits (telegraph.co.uk) Rishi Sunak and his wife 'lost £500k a day' last year - as Sunday Times Rich List reveals UK's wealthiest people | Business News | Sky News The media loving it, why do ''they'' love people losing money? shadenfreude! Scars and stripes: the horror of US poverty (prospectmagazine.co.uk)

McCarthy and Biden would appear ''to agree to come close together because there is no alternative'' Debt ceiling deal is coming is the new "China trade deal is coming."...it was a sell the news event and this will be (very most likely) the same after this debt ceiling episode.. >>> the reality will be, that the US govt has to restock its checking account at higher interest rates (pressure deficit, lower tax receipts most likely on slower economy in H2 2023) >>> this will drain liquidity and remove this stock tailwind we've had last 2months The Greens in Germany are currently experiencing a decline in voter favor b/c they are being blamed for the chaos in energy policy. They would currently just get 15% of the vote and have thus fallen behind the radical right-wing AfD Goldman Sachs says A.I. could push S&P 500 profits up by 30% in the next decade >>> first the benefits, which are quite clear, efficiency etc...then the cost, which the world will have to figure out, AI stuff is nuts, great, worrying, unchecked, wonderful... all at the same time. so much about it these days - see Threads below ECB balance sheet has risen again last week as more bonds were bought than matured. Total assets rose by €11.6bn, most since Jan. ECB Balance sheet now at €7,728.6bn, equal to 59% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 113% and BoJ's 130% ECB’s De Guindos: Inflation in services is most worrying for ECB Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a Wednesday speech that U.K. inflation was being fueled by “second-round effects” that would prove sticky UBS multi billion 'windfall' in CS takeover Markets : TGA run down (liquidity add), now will need to restock at more expensive levels (liquidity drain) is all that matters over summer/going into Q3 USDollar stay firm(er) as yields pick up again. USD yields firmer, anticipating TGA restock. USDZAR all time highs 19.50 or so, USDCNH 7.05, do watch out, a resurgence of the USD will not be welcome by markets (eventually) Equity markets pushing higher, not anticipating TGA restock - yet ? DAX not too far from all time highs! SPX500 4150-4200 top end of range, but pain trade remains higher in short-term with NQ leading still (megacaps mainly, breath not great etc) >>> would use this short-covering rally and TP on some, look for a lower low if you want to turn bearish (on TGA restocking overtime etc) Craig Shapiro on Twitter: "After a modest pickup in cash at TGA yesterday (reported today), expect the TGA to fall to a new low sub $70bn when reported at the close tomorrow as Treasury continues to deplete its cash hoard while paying more out in interest expenses and receiving less in tax receipts. While…" / Twitter well worth a read, we often talked about it with you on the phone over the last couple of months., this has been a major liquidity add during this debt ceiling negotiations (thus helped supported Eq markets, NQ mainly and megacaps)... this will change/reverse during Q3.. Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "From @Axios. The persistent gap between what the #FederalReserve has repeatedly signaled on policy rates and what the markets keep on pricing in is unusual given that the Fed sets the policy rates. It is also unsettling as its resolution will involve either a bout of market… https://t.co/XSoJ4wSpPA" / Twitter Bank of England governor says the UK is facing a wage-price spiral (cnbc.com) Is the world falling for this again ? : -Altman, CEO of OpenAI calls for US to regulate artificial intelligence (BBC) May '23 -Zuckerberg, We need a more active role for governments and regulators Oct. '20 -Facebook COO Sandberg calls for government regulation (CNN) June '19 Sting: Music will face ‘battle’ with AI in coming years | Evening Standard Rowan Cheung on Twitter: "Insane announcements in the world of AI today from Zapier, Zoom, Elon Musk, and OpenAI. Plus, 15 fresh AI tools & resources. Here's the rundown on everything you need to know:" / Twitter The Rundown AI on Twitter: "You can hack ChatGPT to act as your job trainer, dating coach, tutor, lawyer, therapist, or writer. Steal these 6 new prompts to get massively ahead:" / Twitter Aakash Gupta 🚀 Product Growth Guy on Twitter: "AI just won't stop 🤯 In the last 4 days: JIZAI Robots Med-PaLM 2 Google x Adobe Tesla Optimus AI New ChatGPT UI Unreal Engine 5.2 Amazon Burnham Amazon AI Search Sam Altman in DC Apple Voice Cloning Alzheimer's Detection OpenAI: Open-Source LLM Here's what you need to know:" / Twitter Goldman Sachs: AI-driven gains could lead to 30% S&P 500 profit spike (cnbc.com) Alpine solar farms set for public vote in canton Valais - SWI swissinfo.ch Charles Schwab to raise $2.5 billion in long-term debt - WSJ By Reuters (investing.com) If any problem, issue more debt.. UBS Sees Multi-Billion Windfall From Credit Suisse Takeover (finews.asia) Worth a look ! #UBSG Dr S Jaishankar Takes George Soros to the Cleaners for his Remarks against India's Government - YouTube Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss warns of China threats during Taiwan visit - ABC News (go.com) irrespective of what anyone thinks of China (India above), what on earth was she doing there!?.. many countries would be a whole lot better for looking after their own matters.. without stirring rubbish elsewhere in the world 55 Years Later, Man Who Escaped Alcatraz Sends This Note (dailybee.com) Great story Deluded Tories are blind to the scale of the disaster to come (telegraph.co.uk) have wonderful day team PVM

'It could go quite wrong': ChatGPT inventor Sam Altman admits A.I. could cause 'significant harm to the world' as he testifies in front of Congress Biden cancels Australia visit as debt ceiling default nears.US Debt Ceiling: Kevin McCarthy said a deal to avoid a US default is possible within days after meeting Joe Biden. Biden trimmed his planned visit to Asia, dropping stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea It took the Fed to hike 10x (500 bps in cumulative increases), the effective FFR (5.08%) is finally above the rate of inflation in the US (4.99%) >>> something that hasn't happened since 2010, we've had ultra-easy monetary policy persisting pretty much at all times During a hearing on bank failures by the US Senate Banking Committee, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy grilled former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on his investment choices while in charge (thread below - always someone else's fault..) Russia exporting more oil than ever, almost all to China and India "The tower at 350 California in San Francisco, valued at $300 million in 2019, is expected to trade at about $60 million'' U.S Auto loan and credit card interest rates just hit a record high Elon Musk hits out at ‘la la land’ home working – and reveals his own punishing schedule Europe's Inflation breadth is improving. The share of goods and services in the euro area HICP whose prices are rising has dropped back in line with historical average Markets : After yesterday's move, YTD returns for the Dow (as well as that for the Russell) shows the significant performance dispersion in US markets.. and it’s not only the contrast between the NQ's near 20% performance, the differences are even (much) bigger if/when you look at single stocks USDollar slightly stronger, '''EURUSD run out of steam above 1.10+''' couple of weeks back, as U.S rates start to pick up a little relative to RoW again. Weak chinese macro data also pushing USDCNH back to 7+ SPX500 seems to be running out of steam 4150-4200 area, but none of this matters for the techs and systematic funds until say 4040 breaks down and sort of confirms a 'top' up there, need to make lower lows etc.. U.S : Average interest rates: - Credit Card: 25% - Used Cars: 13% - New Cars: 10% ...as total houseghold debt hit $17trn, ajuto loans about $1.5trn, credit card debt anothere $1trn What shocks this market out of the 0DTE volatility dampener? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Getting inflation back to the 2% target − speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England OpenAI's Sam Altman testifies before Congress—Here are the key moments (cnbc.com) Personally and FIWI.. I'm sure it has some great advantages, and some of it is fun..but we should establish what the downside risks area.. and we should regulate it somewhat, it's another example of a new technology that pops up and has no regulation (yet), after crypto and many other things, we have seen what happens when its not somewhat regulated...) Reuters Business on Twitter: "WATCH: During a hearing on bank failures by the US Senate Banking Committee, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy grilled former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on his investment choices while in charge https://t.co/Vx8jNYEybf https://t.co/1rmqcoFMfY" / Twitter LBC on Twitter: "'Rishi Sunak has presented this as his great Brexit benefit...hugely valuable assets have been given away for an extremely small sum.' Investigative journalist @rbrooks45 explains the Teesside Freeport scandal to @mrjamesob. https://t.co/KQFF6ZGmp3" / Twitter Another scum for his/their mates Rise in Distressed Sales Signals New Chapter for Beleaguered Office Market - WSJ FX Talking: The rocky path to a weaker dollar | Bundle | ING Think Tighter US credit conditions caused by the banking crisis will make a recession and a deeper Fed easing cycle all the more likely. These events strengthen the case for a weaker dollar. We are raising our year-end EUR/USD forecast to 1.20. The path to a weaker dollar will be a rocky one, however. Any breakdown in US money markets could send the dollar stronger Sanders goes big in new health package - POLITICO 'Very strong' Nepali sherpa sets Everest record with 27th ascent | Reuters Whaoo! Elon Musk hits out at 'la la land' home working - and reveals his own punishing schedule (telegraph.co.uk)

China’s economic data misses expectations as economy continues to show uneven recovery US Debt Ceiling: McCarthy was downbeat about debt ceiling talks, today he and Joe Biden reconvene on the issue. "We are nowhere near reaching a conclusion," the speaker said, calling staff-level meetings "not productive at all." A key topic of dispute is adding work requirements for anti-poverty benefits. Janet Yellen reiterated her warning that the government could run out of cash by June 1st U.S. Department of Education Announces $42 Billion in approved Public Service Loan forgiveness for more than 615,000 borrowers since October 202, stealth stimulus! European natural gas prices dropped another 2% to €32/MWh, lowest level since Summer 2021 >>> U.S. Inflation Surprise Index from Citi has fallen to lowest since July 2020 Paul Tudor Jones says his view has changed in the past six months because of generative AI; says it will be a productivity miracle. Sees stocks heading higher this year, as he believes the Fed has finished raising rates in this cycle Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says that he doesn’t foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, while...Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapsed In April - Biggest Drop Ever (Ex-COVID), and U.S Credit Card Debt soars 20% in one year, up to $1trn Platinum Market "Entering Substantial Deficit This Year" RBA minutes 'decision to hike was finely balanced' Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote. Cost of credit default swaps records biggest rise in two years, while bonds sell off..>> post-vote selloff continues. Bank Stocks dropped >8%, most in 9 months, whileTRY on course to fresh All-Time lows Amazon is working on a secret AI home robot that can understand things and monitor whether kids had friends over after school >>> will you get one ? Nikkei hits 33-year high as investors warm to Tokyo story. Interest spurred by corporate governance reforms and search for alternative to China UK employment data : Nearly 10% of the workforce long term sick! (Thread), of in case you missed it Farage, the architect of Brexit, was on BBC news night last night saying 'Brexit has failed' (worth noting he always stayed well away from implementing it...naturally..) Markets : Large Techs systematic demand keeping broad markets pretty rangy, China macro data weaker, U.S debt ceiling talks intensifying into early June, while EU commission rising inflation forecasts and UK data is a reminder that inflation IS sticky >>> plenty of Fed speakers and U.S sales later on SPX500 we stick to 3800/4200 range for now, if if we broke higher, it won't be the time to chase SPX at 4300 (valuations etc)...NQ-megacaps 'leading' at the moment, 80pct of stocks struggling, regional banks weakness unlikely to be over as rates stay 'elevated USDollar caught a little bid this week, not exactly gone too far, but worth monitoring, no need to be too concerned unless EURUSD breaks through 1.1050+ again in short.term, but the likes of MXN has not seing these levels since 2016 (17.50...), Cable has its own problems (inflation, stagflation), AUD (china not reopening all that well) etc, be selective.. Commods another nudge lower on weaker Chinese data. IEA warns latest oil price drop is running against backdrop of a supply crunch in 2H 2023 Morgan Stanley reports that clients broadly expect a range trade at the index level but with low conviction levels (3800/4200 range). Mike Wilson notes that there is little appetite to dive back into areas that have underperformed like small caps, regional banks, and lower quality cyclicals … large cap tech remains well owned + little demand for traditional defensives. (Morgan Stanley) >>> mainly driven by 'systematic' funds playing in the large caps (where the liquidities are..) Japan stock index hits 33-year high as investors warm to Tokyo story | Financial Times (ft.com) Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill regrets urging people to accept they are poorer | Business News | Sky News Trading an inverted yield curve why and how | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Inflation, monetary policy, and a recession. Nobody is entirely sure of what's going to happen. Thus, it is critical to gain perspective and commit to a view. Here we discuss the inverted yield curve and how it can be traded depending on what you believe will happen in the foreseeable future China data misses expectations as economy shows uneven recovery (cnbc.com) South Africa’s dangerous game of Russian roulette - ISS Africa Amazon announces updates to the Astro home robot | Amazon news (aboutamazon.com) have you ordered yours ? 2 May 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher from here (cnbc.com) "Manufacturing activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the May survey. After jumping into positive territory last month, the general business conditions index plunged forty-three points to -31.8. Seventeen percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while forty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index sank fifty-three points to -28.0, and the shipments index dropped forty points to -16.4, indicating that both orders and shipments declined after increasing in April." — New York Federal Reserve Bank >>> markets don't care, maybe economic data doesn't matter anymore...! World Platinum Investment Council - Supply & Demand - Platinum Quarterly U.S. Department of Education Announces $42 Billion in Approved Public Service Loan Forgiveness for More Than 615,000 Borrowers Since October 2021 | U.S. Department of Education Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand (cnbc.com) Starmer defends plans to give EU citizens and 16-year-olds the vote despite election 'rigging' claims (cityam.com) Storm Uncovers 1,800-year-old Shipwreck Carrying Rare Precious Cargo (newsweek.com) Singapore Increases Property Tax Rate (finews.asia) Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote | Financial Times (ft.com) ‘Brexit has failed’ GB News presenter Nigel Farage admits after he is read a list of negative facts about the UK economy BBC iPlayer - Newsnight >>> populist ideas, sounded great, got some votes, some some TV coverage, and of course Farag stayed WELL away from any implementation as he knew it was a minefield..Brexit has failed, says Nigel Farage | Evening Standard UK unemployment rate rises to 3.9% as company payrolls shrink – business live (msn.com) Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter: "Sick Britain. New ONS figures reveal 2.55 million people are now out of work due to long-term sickness, the highest number since records began. Close a tenth of the total workforce. And it’s still rising - an extra 438,000 in just the last three months. Covid’s very long tail. https://t.co/pRbZ8OLuFV" / Twitter have a great day team PVM