Site Search

China relaxes #Covid-19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases - SCMP, China’s Politburo Shifts Focus to Boosting Economic Recovery BIS report : There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions. Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills German yield curve most inverted since 1992, 2s10s -21bps, recession calls from many in media U.S. lawmakers ease planned curbs on Chinese chips amid corporate pushbacks RBI Chief Das: Main Risk Is Core Inflation Remains Sticky and Elevated Markets : Crude lower again, talks of massive spec liquidation going on, Bridgewater etc, now nearly 40% below peak in June ! Chinese equities are still trading more than one full standard deviation below the historical average....this after the recent rally of nearly 30% of last 6-8 weeks.. that's how cheap they were... and still are SPX500 kep perfect scenario on charts, tested trend resistance and 200dma's and failed (see below, 3925 short-term support still vs 4'50/75 area resistance, you'd think something will give past FOMC - or maybe bothsides! USD firmer post ISM services data, which was stronger than expected, not what the market was looking for, hence reaction in risk and USDollar, the risk from here is data remains strong(er) than expected and so does inflation, and the recent bond move on basis of 'peak inflation' reverses after FOMC - that's what the market is worried about again China relaxes Covid-19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing (bis.org) >>> as usual these things would weaken some risk assets sharply and create a USDollar shortage as has been many times before (1997, 2008 - after US accounting change...), the real point is many of these swaps you don't have to MtM, the rules allow you NOT to (accounting relief etc), these swaps are usually long dated swaps so you don't have to worry too much (cough..)until it's time to roll them or settle them, just pray it's going to be okay... US equity market limping at pivotal levels after sell-off extends (podbean.com) Ironic Capital on Twitter: "Latest Zoltan Pozsar: “Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R”. PDF: https://t.co/d1aDCoLPqx https://t.co/5ULTljZk4S" / Twitter >>> "Russia’s decision to link gold to oil could bring gold back as a settlement medium and increase its intrinsic value sharply... Banks active in the paper gold market would face a liquidity shortfall." Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup - BBC News Javier Blas on Twitter: "“The lifeblood of Ludwigshafen is natural gas” The European energy crisis as seen from the German town home to the world’s largest chemical complex. (Why, would you ask, the world’s largest chemical complex is in Germany? Cheap Russian natural gas) https://t.co/3LoTQTvvKf" / Twitter Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports | Fox Business Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills (cityam.com) Fox’s Stuart Varney: Trump ‘losing iron grip’ on GOP | The Hill Renewables: Andrew Forrest’s great green energy quest (afr.com) SPX500 tested top of the range, 200dma's

OPEC+ Oil Production unchanged, implementing the hefty 2 million barrel-a-day reduction agreed at its last meeting, getting cold out there ! China may announce downgrade of Covid-19 to less strict category of Management as Early as January It took the Fed a decade to get up to their 2% inflation target and it might take the Fed another decade to get it down to their 2% inflation target Fed's Barkin: labor supply likely will remain constrained - depends what data one is looking at (see thread below) Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse Morgan Stanley upgrades China Stocks on reopening bullishness..raised to overweight, had been equal-weight since January 2022..Recovery ‘set to be bumpy’ amid earnings pressure, Wang says >> remember on the way down in price, many said they became uninvestable, now price action has changed, guess what...! others will do the same... CBI warns UK faces 'lost decade' of growth unless Rishi Sunak gets 'serious' APPL bought back its own stock to the tune of $90bn in Q3, while investing $11bn in its business, net balance-sheet worth down $50bn.. Markets : TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF on Friday. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? NO, in fact it looks overdone now, the UST curve dec 2023/24 now nearly 140bp inverted, very punchy 'recession calls' SPX500 stable, after choppy NFP action, ended up unchanged, China stocks up very decently again on hope reopening gaining traction (base case remain they have and they will reopen, not if but when..) >>> slowdown is positive for stocks, when markets chase liquidity, as it is now !... >>> the BIG question is when does risk starts to flip from chasing liquidity to weaker fundamentals, depends on who you listen, and all a lot harder to call if you leveraged of course, best case for now remains weaker macro data in Q1 2023 in the US USDollar still weak, although USDJPY looks to have done enough for now, a good 10% move down from BoJ interventions near 149JPY, time to cover USDJPY shorts..>>> never underestimate BoJ.... CNH slowly catching up...as it should on reopening calls, now 6.9400.. AUDNZD done enough in short-term!..EURCHF (chsart) preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar pattern...) Crude stable just above $80 WTI Next big rendez-vous are next week with all FOMC, ECB, BoE and SNBN meetings Financial conditions continue to ease, ease, ease (podbean.com) and few nice charts here as well from Saxo PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Hu Xijin 胡锡进 on Twitter: "China is lifting lockdowns,which will increase chaos in a short time.But such transition won’t be long.I estimate by the Chinese New Year,new adaptability will emerge among people, confidence will be on a new foundation & Chinese economy will usher in a relatively strong rebound." / Twitter IT sure got interesting last few days... 2s dropped about 25/30bps - whole curve lower - usd and risk same - not even an apparent strong NFP - in fact you could argue some parts of it was weak - depends what you want to look at ! Interesting few details about US employment data … https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1598697103613513728?s=48&t=XPCrgH_0zBDvLaTZtdwR1A Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "$TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? https://t.co/QPQumzRvkh" / Twitter Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse (cnbc.com) Apple supplier Foxconn expects to see full production resume at a COVID-hit China plant around late December to early January, after unrest at a major iPhone factory in Zhengzhou Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Pricing pressures easing... https://t.co/WueXDlYnV2" / Twitter Ukraine updates: G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in – DW – 12/05/2022 UK economy to shrink in 2023, risks 'lost decade': CBI | Reuters UK facing 2023 recession; oil higher after Opec+ sticks with output cuts – business live (theguardian.com) Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "I have never in my life heard so much bull**** spouted by a member of the Government in a single interview https://t.co/Mg47bvZBcM" / Twitter Winter energy woes cast shadow over Swiss ski season - SWI swissinfo.ch Bargains begin luring big banks back to China bets for 2023 | Reuters Price action become positive; many will start chasing again.. North Carolina county under curfew after power station attack, FBI investigating | Reuters Apple Stock Buybacks (Quarterly) (ycharts.com) EURCHF preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar..) Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FED officials keep making the points of no cuts next year, markets not listening (Thread) - Will Powell insist on it today ?>>> The buck has had the worst month in over 10years, down 4-5% pverall (USDCNH lagging got obvious reasons, catch up on reopening next ?), terminal rate 5% (priced in) on the basis of #peakinflation, peak rates and thus peak USDdollar that we talked about extensively 6-8weeks ago, the only thing that looks a little farfetched (for now) is the amount of cuts priced in for 2023/24, let's see what J.Pow has to say later on, markets expects him to be remain fairly hawkish overall FT - Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself, Stakes in hundreds of buyout groups’ companies have been bundled into investments with strong credit ratings >>> CDO's all over again - markets will never learn, worst credit repackaged into so called safe investment... ECB probably 50bps now in Dec after weaker German inflation data >>> overall HICP will surprise to the downside form here, with a core stable around 4.5/5%.. In the UK though, BRC survey suggests #food price inflation hit a new high of 12.4% in November, up from 11.6% in Oct, BOE's Pill: Our base case does not involve rates reaching 5.25%, expects UK inflation to start falling next year, assuming natural gas prices stabilise and then start to drop The Dutch government will buy and close 3,000 farms to comply with EU climate targets… FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report Credit Suisse hitting all-time lows below 3CHF, as CDS hit an all-time high.. Stoltenberg reaffirms Ukraine will one day enter NATO Elon Musk reportedly delays the launch of Twitter Blue again, this time to spite Apple Markets : HSI has rallied about 10pct last 3days, and some 25% off late October lows... LONG-term chart below to put things in perspective...''CCP won't be able to lock people down for much longer..'', when (not if) China (at least partly) re-opens, the markets locally have room to fly higher..together with commodities etc etc Overall rates in long-end may well be peaking on peak inflation, however, Central Banks will have to reduce actively their balance-sheet next, the FED mentioned before that about $2trn in on the cards during 2023, and this will matter for some parts of the markets... SPX500 'stalled' in our previously mentioned resistance zone 4'050 initially, then much bigger levels around 4'150, short-term support around 3'925 for today Global #Bonds add record $2.8 Trillion in market value this month.... #peakworries ... USDollar dropped about 5% in November, worst month in 10years, #peakinflation = #peakusdollar ... all happened pretty quickly, however markets should be a little careful from here, as Powell is NO Bernanke, inflation is still very high and employment is still very firm too, so he's unlikely to budge on his views and may remind markets that cuts already priced in for 2023/24 are wrong Crude remains near lows too, 4th Dec meeting - OPEC+ decision to hold virtual meeting signals little likelihood of policy change, cap on Russian oil awaited - source ALL about Powell now, NFP Friday, one more U.S CPI before the December meetings for which Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Fed officials keep doubling down on their hawkish talk, but markets keep shrugging them off. While Fed members say again and again they're not going to cut rates next year, traders are still pricing in more than two rate cuts by the end of 2023. https://t.co/sddnIgHlVp https://t.co/V9tJXzkcrf" / Twitter Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "Looks like Credit Suisse is on the verge of becoming Default Suisse. https://t.co/z97FyBiAQs" / Twitter St. Louis Fed President James Bullard addresses inflation, interest rates and recession risk in MarketWatch interview (msn.com) Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself | Financial Times (ft.com) The US hospital staffing company Envision Healthcare, owned by the private equity firm KKR, has the lowest possible junk-grade credit rating and is at risk of bankruptcy, according to Moody’s. But an ownership stake in Envision, bundled with stakes in hundreds of other private equity-owned companies, has been transformed into a financial security marketed to ordinary savers as a safe investment with a stellar credit rating Compulsory purchase will be an option to close down farms: ministers - DutchNews.nl Phil Rosen on Twitter: "(1/5) FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report. (@BusinessInsider) https://t.co/ISbayRvPYu" / Twitter I mean really?... red flags all over and no-one cared? astonishing, due diligence anyone? ECB’s Christine Lagarde: Further crypto regulation ‘absolute necessity’ following FTX collapse (yahoo.com) >>> why do we need a collapse to bring regulations !!? German inflation eased in November but too soon for 'all-clear' (globalbankingandfinance.com) Bleak winter ahead as inflationary headwinds continue (brc.org.uk) Global Bonds Add Record $2.8 Trillion in Market Value This Month - Bloomberg Medical tech company partners with Google to improve breast cancer screenings | The Hill Stoltenberg says Putin is using winter as climate weapon (news.am) Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin dies aged 96 | ITV News Elon Musk delays Twitter Blue launch again, this time to spite Apple | Fortune Jeff Bezos: This is what you are going to regret at 80 (cnbc.com) It’s not what you do and mess up, it’s what you don’t do that will plague you when you are old and looking back on your life. Have a great week - Back next Wednesday Team PVM

FED chair Jerome Powell will be speaking this week on Wednesday starting at 1:30PM ET, and Central Bankers taking today : ECB Knot, De Cos, McCaul, Lagarde and Nagel, then Fed Williams & Bullard later on in our day ECB : all eyes on the Nov flash HICP data on Wed, exp. unch core inflation at 5%, risks bit more balanced, unless lower 75bps in Dec still very likely CHINA riots, protest, clashes in Shanghai, anti Xi calls, it's not quietening down. Multiple cities, different reasons for protests, economy in a slump, global demand down, pretty tough set of things to control... >>>> going to be an 'interesting' few days-weeks in China, eventually can work both ways.. all gets worse or someone loses faith, buys few billions doses of foreing vaccines and move on.. Late-cycle economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the 3mos months to October/thread On Friday, PBOC cut RRR by 25bps, woved to step up implementation of prudent monetary policy ''we will not resort to flood-like stimulus'' >>>> more debt, lower rates in a broken market will most likely not help much, the whole investment model in question (broken), but they know nothing else, which probably means they will stick to the same as they cannot back down.. JAPAN inflation higher last Friday, JPN likely to continue to sell Treasuries, which is widening rates differential, won't help but they will most likely continue too >>> massive amount of debt across the world fuelled massive investment bubbles last many years Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further fall, Brexit, deglobalisation and pandemic deal bigger shock to terms of trade, investors told >>>> that's the other big Brexit financed by massive debt increase, the bill has turned up too, they always do in the end, ridiculous populist ideas leading to poorer folks to pay the bills - ZERO accountability with politicians or central bankers, why?.. When prices surge, people can afford less, businesses struggle to control costs and, in extreme cases, political revolutions are born ESG fab (for investor...funds did well though...) - Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail There are millions of orphaned gas and oil wells leaking methane in the U.S. — and plugging them will cost billions. Watch the full video.. China is spending as much if not more on PCR testing as in education, totally crazy what the CCP is imposing on its people, no wonder they are becoming a lot more vocal !! Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT Markets : Crude erases 2022 gains on recessions talsk, economic slowdown accentuated by China unrests again The huge U.S equity net short is GONE, but market is far from long, skew suggesting funds are switching into hedgingdownside via puts again USDJPY possibly breaking down/CROSSJPY's rallies sold into on possible risk aversion after this big short-covering rally in Equity markets last few weeks, USDCNH higher on specific local worries 10y UST yields 3.63% - that's a pretty decent move last few weeks!, which helped Eq clearly, the thing that could worry markets again is the Fed pivot, isn't a pivot but a pause.. which seems the most likely scenario for now (unless inflation goes down properly and/or unemployment goes decently higher, the FED won't blink, and some 150bps of cuts priced in already for 2023-24 Protests against strict lockdown hit Shanghai, other China cities - Nikkei Asia Danson Cheong on Twitter: "Covid control in Beijing has broken down - a thread: On Friday night I received dreaded notification that one of the residents in my housing block had been picked up as a positive case in community screening and we might be going into lockdown. 1/N https://t.co/KotPeDVirn" / Twitter Selina Wang on Twitter: "This is an extraordinary, historic moment in China Protests are breaking out across the country-from Beijing, to elite colleges, to other major cities, and even far flung places Shocking to hear people chanting for Xi to step down This is people past their breaking point @cnn https://t.co/6lccNGIycT" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "There is a 30% probability that China reopens earlier, says Hui Shan of Goldman Sachs. https://t.co/7iUvEddzaY" / Twitter About a year ago every bank was euphoric about 2023, consensus S&P forecast was above 5,100. Now :..... every bank is gloomy and downbeat, with the most optimistic predicting a flat S&P at best, some see S&P dropping to 3000 >>>> all you need is a good valuation model and manager! Apple has a huge problem at Foxconn's iPhone factory in China | CNN Business Ian Harnett on Twitter: "It is the ‘late-cycle’ economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the three months to October. A RECORD PACE! https://t.co/OgCmpU9qNX" / Twitter Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further falls | Financial Times (ft.com) Why Inflation Heats Up and Is So Hard to Cool Down - Bloomberg Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail (yahoo.com) Pure (almost)marketing scams, as often discussed before, as usual investors are fooled '''I have always been amazed by how many funds groups seem to be led by theri marketing departments rather than their investment departments'' Plugging methane-leaking oil, gas wells in the U.S. will cost billions (cnbc.com) China’s steampunk covid response | The Economist China’s steampunk covid response - How to read the country’s confusing pandemic-policy changes StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: "Here's Bank of America's top 10 trades for 2023 ⬇️" / Twitter 1 - Long 30-year Treasuries 2 - Yield curve steepening 3 - Short US dollar, long emerging markets assets, long EM distressed bonds, long Korean won, long Mexican peso 4 - Long China stocks 5 - Long gold, long copper 6 - Barbell long IG tech bonds with distressed HY debt in Asia 7 - Long global industrials and small caps 8 - Short US tech 9 - Short private equity 10 - Long EU banks, short Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks (1) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🛢 🇺🇸 #Oil Erases This Year’s Gains as China Unrest Flares - Bloomberg *The US oil benchmark shed all of this year’s gains as unrest in China over Covid Zero curbs rattled an already-fragile market that’s beset by demand concerns. https://t.co/BAhojcEhJS" / Twitter Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT - autoevolution .... 10-15years ago...weren't electric cars meant to be the little 2-seater we were all going to use in town to do our shopping and/or small distances? ...yups, not an SUV and/or 6seater limousine weighing 2.5tons or more... USDJPY broke down, corrected back to trend line last week and here we are lower again Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FOMC Minutes : peak usd, peak inflation, peak 10y yields confirmed), A "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, the meeting minutes showed. Traders had expected the Fed minutes would affirm officials' softening stance after recent data showed a moderation in economic conditions >>> Powell speaks on 30th Nov - if he is not happy about easier financial conditions, he has an opportunity to say something then BoC Gov Maclem says expects policy rate will need to rise further And the U.S is in contraction Mfg PMI 47.6, Exp. 50.0, Last 50.4 Services PMI 46.1, Exp. 48.0, Last 47, Initial jobless claims hit the highest since mid-August as well.. In Japan, Nov factory activity shrank at quickest pace in 2 years Sunak backs down against BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators Korean CB hikes by only 25bps, growth to slow down sharply in 2023 (they were 1st major CB to hike in Asia in the cycle, another sign-confirmation of peak rates) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant, Apple supplier apologises for ‘technical error’ after violent clashes between workers and police Renault is buying solar power from Voltalia over 15 years in what is France’s biggest renewable corporate power-purchase agreement Markets : SPX500 levels remain the same - see below comment from GS on CTA's activity! The price of Crude Oil is now, let's call if FLAT over 2022.... and energy stocks are up 65pct.. USDollar took a very decent tumble post FOMC minutes (LOW liquidities ahead of Turkey day).. EURUSD 1.0430+ key, USDCHF below 0.9450 area again, USDJPY 139 and below big statement, CABLE 1.2020+ all need to hold to keep USD bears in charge (USDCNH lagging on new covid cases), AUDUSD bullish as long as 0.6675+, and as noted recently the KIWI bird is flying GOLD has room for higher into year-end, tech levels towards 1850$ should be tested, PLAT also interesting, while XAGUSD 22+ would be very interesting for the bulls! Germany bond market sending recession alarm too, 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in about 30years, now -22bp UST's and rates in general, we looked for and got for #peakrates, meaning higher for longer, not necessarily looking for any cuts in 2023, until, and only until employment and inflation ease quite a bit, we are getting NFP and U.S CPI ahead of next meeting, market remains fixated and cemented on 50bps for next meeting, things could change dramatically though in early 2023, U.S CPI could see some pretty large correction lower Can CTAs help us overshoot? Goldman writes that medium term CTA momentum is back in positive as we are above the 3965 level. They projected "$6b of S&P to buy in flat tape over next 5 trading sessions but that number will grow meaningfully post today’s close". Longer term momentum flips at 4054. They also write: "Another key technical level to keep up on your screens in 200dma of 4062. Would not be surprised if mkt makes a run towards 200dma tomorrow but will be difficult to break through it." Mikael Sarwe on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Core PCE consensus above target the foreseeable future & yet market discounts 125 bp cuts mid-23 to mid-24. Lower yields, weaker USD, higher equities & tighter credit spreads since Fed meeting = fin conditions easier than normal. Are markets forcing Fed back to 75 bp in Dec? https://t.co/0rVU5A1ToF" / Twitter as per above comment, that is what I am referring to, as long as inflation does not come down, market maybe a little ahead of itself and/or you can say that a lot is ALREADY price in for 2023/24 in terms of cuts Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇩🇪 German Bond Curve Inverts Most in 30 Years in Growth Warning - Bloomberg *Link: https://t.co/CnC3mom0cm https://t.co/oZ2b4CsSGZ" / Twitter Shares rise, U.S. Treasury yields drop as Fed minutes suggest slower rate hikes (yahoo.com) Half of variable mortgage holders with fixed payments have hit trigger rate: BoC - National | Globalnews.ca Hitting a trigger rate means a mortgage holder is no longer paying down any principal on their loan and is only covering interest — a key point that can prompt the lender to force a homeowner to make additional payments Credit Suisse Craters To Record Low After Revealing Staggering $88 Billion Bank Run | ZeroHedge yeps... Sunak backs down to BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators (cityam.com) quite right - do not mess with your own CB (or any CB for that matter) South Korean central bank slows rate hikes, sharply downgrades 2023 growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Revealed: Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly received £29m from ‘VIP lane’ PPE firm | Michelle Mone | The Guardian unreal china: China expands lockdowns as COVID-19 cases hit daily record - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant | Financial Times (ft.com) China expands lockdowns as COVID cases soar to daily record high | World News | Sky News some pretty unreal scenes out there, folks unhappy to be locked down... can you blame them? Voltalia signs a 350 megawatt solar power supply contract with Renault Group to support its energy transition (yahoo.com) have a great day Team PVM

Q3 2022 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank #GOLD purchases (thread-chart), China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence. Buying of metal is at its fastest pace since the 1960s Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institute on November 30th seems to have only been announced yesterday. Notably, it is just two days before the Fed's pre-FOMC comms blackout begins. Fed’s Mester wants more progress on #inflation before ending interest rate hikes. Real impact of #Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says and finally, "The Fed could move to pause its rate hikes as soon as next month in our view" - Mike Wilson/MS Producer prices in Germany jumped 34.5% in October compared to the same month a year earlier, the country's national statistical office Destatis announced on Monday. The producer inflation rate was down from 45.8% recorded a month earlier...On a monthly basis, the producer price index slid 4.2% in October #peakinflation confirmed Rishi Sunak rules out Swiss-style trade deal with EU, UK's public borrowing rises by less than expected., October's figure of £13.5bn is much less than £22bn forecasts from economists BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan. Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support Fund Managers Are Turning Ever More Pessimistic on the US Dollar. Short dollar positions are at most since July 2021: CFTC data..“The dollar’s exceptionalism premium is receding:” Bromhead China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October, Beijing shuts parks, museums as China's COVID cases rise Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said whole idea of cryptocurrency is “nonsense” after implosion of FTX revealed industry’s shortcomings: "Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools." Germany says it has enough gas for the next TWO winters - whaoo Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley agree on the direction for stocks next year: they see substantially more downside before equities find a floor and return to where they are now Humans mined 700 million tons of copper over the last 5,000 years. The same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years to meet energy transition targets using wind, solar, & electric vehicles A large number of tankers which previously sailed under European Union flags, such as Cyprus’ and Malta’s, are leaving those registers as a result of the sanctions on Russian oil transportation BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue Markets: Crude dropped 3usd on some WSJ story that Saudi Arabia was going to boost output, later denied and back to square one on the day. Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine (thread) USDollar trade and budget deficit and peak rates insight, always tricky, but markets are slowly worried of a weaker $ into 2023, #peakUSDollar with peak UST yields in play..USDCNH holding up, stalling USD downside, USDCHF held/back above that monthly chart/trend support around 0.9400/50 Equity markets rangy in this Thanksgiving week, ARKK related type names struggling on yet more crypto worries and BTC price breaking down. SPX500 3900/20 support vs 4050/85 resistance BTC breaking down <16K, it was 8k in early 2020 before all the covid QE checks, ETH was <$200, not saying it goes there, just to put things in perspective Bond vols continue to slow, MOVE index, peak 10y yields most likely seen around 4.3%, all about FOMC in Dec and beware final signal on 30th Nov from Powell Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes (cnbc.com) Future-of-Copper.pdf (ihsmarkit.com) OpenSquareCapital on Twitter: "Excerpts from Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT https://t.co/ER6tQj8AKT" / Twitter BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan | Forexlive BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue | Forexlive China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence - Nikkei Asia There was some huge CB buying in Q3 2022 FTX : was apparently a $32bn company, they never had any board meetings, many of the emplyees were fake, the Bahamas govt was behind the $600 hack, customer funds were used to buy SBG real estate and advisors now saying fraud is far worse than Enron..... tainting the whole crypto world, coins, other exchanges all to possibly be questioned...the story is not over, probably put crypto back into the ice age for many investors.. Op-Ed: Could DCG be the catalyst for max pain in the crypto markets? (cryptoslate.com) ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "The Alameda pitch deck will go down in history right alongside the LTCM brochure. https://t.co/JqdIihj4Ua" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Q3 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank gold purchases https://t.co/XWNhku5XBI" / Twitter chart What did COP27 achieve? (qz.com) Switzerland and UK sign trade conformity agreement - SWI swissinfo.ch Fund Managers Are Piling On Dollar Shorts on Peak Fed Bets - Bloomberg China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Fed's Powell to speak on economy on Nov. 30, two days before blackout | Morningstar Tankers are ditching EU flags | eKathimerini.com Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support | Reuters Bear Stock Markets Will Last Through 2023, Goldman Sachs Says - Bloomberg Infinity Q founder, once claiming $3 billion assets, pleads guilty to fraud (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM

Goldman Sees China Rebound Coming as Covid Policy Fuels Optimism, economy to gain momentum after initial reopening impact passes, sentiment improves since Beijing tweaks Covid, property rules "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This".....“A complete failure of corporate controls”: Read the wildest parts of the new FTX bankruptcy filing - astonishing - what happened to due diligence...Singapore state investor Temasek has written off its $275mn stake in cryptocurrency company FTX, saying its trust in former chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried appeared ‘misplaced’ Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says we should stop thinking that the U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation, US inflation is unacceptably high Fed's Bullard: Even "Dovish" Policy Assumptions Require Further Rate Increases 5 to 5.25% >> he is the über hawk and data dependent, see Phily Fed below.. Is Green Hydrogen the Fuel of the future? Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) As expected, The UK announced its biggest tax hikes and spending cuts in 10 years. In his autumn statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt laid out a £55 billion ($66 billion) “belt tightening” plan for the next five years that will seek to lower government debt >>> ''what's not great for folks, may be good for UK markets'', UK gilts and GBP taken this pretty well The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October, with the gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020 Japan's inflation has hit its highest levels in 40 years, with prices jumping up more than three and a half percent in the year to October >>> BoJ still YCC'ing...so maybe the plan is to strengthen the JPY instead.. Markets: The next few HUGE events are on 14th and 15th of Dec, when Fed, SNB, BoE and the ECB will set policy/hike, we will get another NFP and set of US inflation before that, ISM next week be interesting after weak Phily Fed yesterday The 2s10s yield curve hasn’t been this inverted in the last 25 years. The 30-year US mortgage rate moved from 7.08% to 6.61% over the last week, the largest one-week decline (-47 bps) in rates since November 1981 >>> peak worries, peak rates as long as debt remains under control !! like the UK is showing..it will be tough but it's a must The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality..is something that you read fair bit about now already in article and research documents, markets reached overbought conditions, momentum slowing as we get into these huge SPX500 technical levels 4'050/4'150 resistance area, 200dma is right in the middle aroun 4'075 and the 100dma is aroiund 3'910 which is exactly where we held yesterday.. USD came back a bit on Bullard comment yesterday but given weaker Phily Fed (employment data..) and if other data comes in softer between now and Dec FOMC, USD likely to come under further pressure again. GBP going just fine, AUDUSD 0.6770 Fibo lev, more around China reopening or not (USDCNH etc). USDCHF popped its head above that big 09450/.9500 area, key are on monthly charts, probably on EURCHF buying mainly.. Markets likely to trade rangy/low vols (bar any new news.) till mid-December and all the CB meetings, macro rates side of things will be awaiting all these mostly priced in hikes Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) https://t.co/Of6m4uUPrY" / Twitter chart Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Foreign selling in March 2020 triggered a US Treasury market blow-up, destabilizing highly leveraged carry trades hedge funds were doing, similar to the recent UK bond market blow-up. Japan in September sold the large amount of US Treasuries EVER to fund its defense of the Yen... https://t.co/fv3ACyHCqC" / Twitter chart Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "More yield curve inversions happening today. The Fed funds rate is now higher than 30-year yields since the Covid recession. 62% of the entire Treasury curve is now inverted. This only supports our bearish case for US stocks. https://t.co/QM2P6Sz76a" / Twitter chart Frédéric Rochat: «Energy Independence Has Never Been More Relevant» (finews.asia) OK enough talks, actions required, in ALL countries, the 'not in my back yard' must sort of stop, it's too easy to push the problem to someone else, some other country etc Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly (yahoo.com) Billionaire Ray Dalio: stop thinking U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war | Fortune Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation (yahoo.com) Fed's Bullard: Even "dovish" policy assumptions require further rate increases | Reuters Japan's inflation hits 40-year high (yahoo.com) October data also showed a yearly jump in energy costs by over 15%. Food items were 88% more costly than a year before, led by alcoholic drinks Poll reveals public support for Brexit at all-time low | Politics News | Sky News ''let's take back control...'' "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This" | ZeroHedge this will soon be a must watch on Netflix or whatever provider FTX’s new CEO is steering the bankruptcy with experienced help (qz.com) Is Green Hydrogen The Fuel Of The Future? This CEO Is Betting On It (forbes.com) Pompeo dings Trump: GOP needs leader who doesn’t claim ‘victimhood’ | The Hill FDA says lab-grown meat is safe for human consumption (cnbc.com) not going to rush just yet.. Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices | AP News From income tax to pensions: What the Autumn statement means for you (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM

UK's Jeremy Hunt to unveil £54bn of tax rises and spending cuts. The chancellor will insist to MPs that his autumn statement puts the UK on a "balanced path to stability" >>>> The OBR statement is at 2:30 GMT is very important for Gilts and GBP.. (either way) After two years of Democratic control of both the House and the Senate, the power dynamic in Washington will now shift Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday he’s open to reducing the level of interest rate increases to half a percentage point in December >>> 50bps in Dec is no surprise to anyone, priced in by markets. The likes of JPM look for 50bps in Dec, followed by a couple of 25bps in Q1 2023, with falling inflation and rising unemployment, so they expect Fed to ease policy from early 2024 >>> pretty extreme inversion! essentially, they are agreeing to what the curve saying in markets, 150 over 2 years …with 110 or so hikes priced . Quite funky Goldman Sachs just increased its forecast for the FED's terminal rate to 5-5.25% from 4.75-5.0% Once valued at US$10 billion, crypto empire behind Genesis caught up in FTX turmoil U:S Strategic Petroleum Reserve drained to March 1984 levels U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised Markets : MOVE Index - vol decline key for markets, vol decline has been huge since mid-October, helping overall market volatily lower, geo-politics (hopefully) easing still, although rocked in Poland this week, although note the index has moved back up a little last week or so Equity markets stopped in their track with the Poland news, but not much lower it's fair to say, SPX500 4'050 and 4'150 huge area/resistance medium-term still, acting as potential target for markets, support 3'925 area (bombed out markets, ARKK, non-profitable index etc recovered sharply from the mid-October lows (top in bond vols, peak inflation, peak USD..) USDollar remains on backfoot, GBP looking a little perky still going into UK Budget today, CABLE actually hit a 1.2020+ this week already, we've come a long way since we called for a low in GBP (after Kamikaze budget-overshoot etc), but perhaps 1.25-1.30 CABLE is not out of question if the USDollar remain soft into year-end Markets prone to wild short-term moves though still, markets remain pretty 'illiquid^' underneath going into Thanksgiving, World Cup, CB Dec meetings including SNB and year-end stuff - It WILL remain funky, though bond market vol lower helping, in many ways the bigger potentials move should come from China re-opening /how fast, going into 2023 Goldman says it sees a slightly longer string of 25 bps increases in '23 that will take the funds rate above 5% in May >>>>> Reasons: 1) Fiscal tightening has run its course 2) Inflation could remain "uncomfortably high" 3) Market overreactions prematurely ease financial conditions Autumn Statement 2022 live: Jeremy Hunt to unveil £54bn of tax rises and spending cuts (telegraph.co.uk) Republicans win control of House of Representatives in US midterm elections, projections show | US News | Sky News U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised | Reuters Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government | Reuters Fed's Waller says he's open to a half-point hike at December meeting (cnbc.com) Once valued at US$10 billion, crypto empire behind Genesis caught up in FTX turmoil | The Straits Times Jan. 6 panel hits back at Pence over new interview | The Hill A Lab-Grown Meat Startup Gets the FDA’s Stamp of Approval | WIRED Former Berkshire Exec Asks for Leniency in Elizabeth Holmes' Sentence (businessinsider.com) Reports of China reopening have translated to sharp stock market rises; are they sustainable? (thebull.com.au) Home Seller Offers a Free Tesla to Attract Buyers as New Zealand Prices Tumble - Bloomberg AUDUSD key Fibo level as well around 0.6770

World leaders will state that today’s era “must not be of war” and will condemn threats to use nuclear weapons at the G20 summit in Bali, reflecting rising global anxiety around Russia’s war against Ukraine, RU isolated, Biden meats Xi, geo-politics calming down - we can hope ! U.S. President Joe Biden said there “need not be a new Cold War” between the U.S. and China, following a three-hour summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Indonesia Mr Sunak has indicated he will abandon his predecessor Liz Truss’s push to formally recategorise China as a “threat” to the UK Goldman Sachs forecasts that core PCE will fall from 5.1% now to 2.9% by Dec 2023, as supply chain clearing lowers good prices, wage growth starts to slow and rents moderate. Fun fact: "1 million apartments are under construction or permitted, the largest pipeline since 1974." Fed Vice Chair Brainard says it may ‘soon’ be appropriate to move to slower pace of rate hikes, she highlighted two-sided risks as rates become more restrictive BoJ and BoE interventions in USDJPY and Gilts, got a lot of mockery, the whole markets were full of 'it will never work', we didn't, recall 'do not underestimate BoJ'... and here we are Quants Forced to Shed $225 Billion of Short Bets in Big Squeeze - Bloomberg Japan’s Economic Recovery Slammed Back into Reverse by Weak Yen - Bloomberg-Chipping In: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Takes $4 Billion Stake In Taiwanese Semiconductor Giant TSMC Markets : SPX500 4'050 key for 4'150 possible major resistance zone, 200dma etc, shorts have evaporated quickly and are at March 2020 lows already according to GS. Downside we need to hold 3'925 area in short-term for higher USDollar stays offered, USDCHF at the cusp of major fall-out, with SNB's chatters and general $ weakness. AUDUSD major Fibo level around 0.6775, CABLE much will depend on UK budget perception tomorrow (1.25 before xmas?), USDJPY sell rallies while sub 141-142JPY, USDCNH look for further downside, geopolitics easing and China eventually reopening GOLD, Silver, metals all higher, quite sharply may I add..finally Crude a little softer - welcome move for inflation PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) to charts in there - have a look and Squeeze on USD and sentiment hitting pivotal areas (podbean.com) Quants Forced to Shed $225 Billion of Short Bets in Big Squeeze - Bloomberg *Link: https://bloom.bg/3Geu8n9 G20 leaders to agree draft communiqué rejecting ‘era of war’ | Financial Times World leaders will state that today’s era “must not be of war” and will condemn threats to use nuclear weapons at the G20 summit in Bali, reflecting rising global anxiety around Russia’s war against Ukraine. A draft communiqué agreed by diplomats, seen by the Financial Times and confirmed by two delegations, said: “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.” Keynesian Policies Have Left Big Debt, High Inflation, & Weak Growth | ZeroHedge Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek says its exposure to FTX was limited to $10 million | Fortune Biden sees no need for 'new Cold War' with China after meeting with Xi Jinping (cnbc.com) Events and webinars | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) 12:00 UTC With interest rates on the rise, bonds are staging a comeback in many investors’ portfolios. But what are bonds – and how can you make them part of your investing strategy? Join us for an exclusive webinar, taking place 15 November 2022 at 13:00 (UTC+01), as Saxo’s Head of Fixed Income, Nicolai Dahl Wallin, presents an overview of today’s bond market, the outlook for the future and what to look out for if you’re considering adding bonds to your portfolio. Fed Vice Chair Brainard says it may 'soon' be appropriate to move to slower pace of rate hikes (cnbc.com) World’s biggest Crypto fund hits record 42% discount to value of #Bitcoin it holds in the wake of exchange FTX’s shock bankruptcy filing. #GBTC price continues to plunge below the value of underlying coins. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/-broken-crypto-fund-hits-record-42-discount-as-etfs-hum-along?sref=R17xFhjo G20 latest: Softening stance on China 'completely wrong', Iain Duncan Smith warns Rishi Sunak - live updates (telegraph.co.uk) Chipping In: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Takes $4 Billion Stake In Taiwanese Semiconductor Giant TSMC (msn.com) Japan’s Economic Recovery Slammed Back Into Reverse by Weak Yen - Bloomberg *Link: https://bloom.bg/3EzFJvW USDCHF - always tricky these long-term charts, but just to put things in picture - downside pressure remains while we are below 0.9450 area - (for now) probably and overshoot from Friday's comments from Jordan

U.S Senate stays in Democratic hands, Trump a liability to Reps/WSJ Fed' Waller trying to put breaks on market's enthusiasm, Fed’s Waller Says There’s a ‘Ways to Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done FTX and al, what a circus, we might well go into crypto ice age for a while The Swiss National Bank Began Unloading its Biggest US Stock Holdings, incl. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said he will set out tax rises and spending cuts this week to show Britain can fix its public finances and restore its economic credibility after financial market chaos sparked by former prime minister Liz Truss, big day on Thursday for UK and this might be useful : NI Protocol: UK-Irish relations have improved significantly - Irish PM SNB Chairman says monetary policy not sufficiently restrictive enough. US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Bali, ready to talk seriously he says, let's have it gents Goldman Sachs said it expects a "significant" decline in U.S. inflation next year due to easing in supply chain constraints, a peak in shelter inflation and slower wage growth Markets : Crypto malaise might be profound, most likely will be, how on earth PF's and other prominent HF name will try to get out, having said this for now this remains a crypto issuse, it doesn't have to spread to rest of the market USD weakened sharply last week, recovering overnight on Waller and oversold short-term conditions. USDCHF got knocked for three on Friday on Jordan's comments Bonds and equity markets rallied hard last week, time to be prudent, but talks CTRA buying above SPX500 4'050+ would be pretty big (talks 100bn+), now you can also add share buybacks into equation and the likes of GS talks about daily demand of anything up to $10bn per day till year-end! MOVE index, remember a few weeks back SAXO pointed out how important it was to markets overall (totally agreed with Steen, and coincided with peak inflation, peak usd, peak worrie setc)... valuation came our client's way, we increased risk in the mini panic 2months ago for our clients..>>> we needed bond vol to calm down for markets to calm down, in the space of 6weeks the index has collapsed from 160 to 110 area.. It's been a pretty volatile year for Equity markets, but we are happy to report that our philosophy and trust in our Investment Matrix has kept and sustained our client's wealth throughout these difficult times USDCHF tumbles to three-month lows on SNB Jordan’s comments (fxstreet.com) UK must raise taxes and cut spending, Hunt says ahead of budget (yahoo.com) Events and webinars | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) - tomorrow 'all you need to know about bonds' and more from Saxo - Bear markets have the most spectacular squeezes (podbean.com) daily + slide deck. Today we continue to find reason to question the quality of this melt-up in equity markets after last Thursday's soft US CPI print, with the first prominent Fed official already out overnight with pushback against this drop in US yields. Still, that's not to say that the move can't extend in the short term, as the market is also hoping that a shift in China's Zero Covid policy is coming. Xi and Biden will meet today ahead of the G20 meeting. We also look at stocks to watch this week, an important week for earnings, the big moves in metals both precious and industrial, the US dollar and much more The Trump Liability for the GOP - WSJ Fed’s Waller Says There’s a ‘Ways to Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done (yahoo.com) Goldman Sachs expects "significant" decline in U.S. inflation in 2023 (yahoo.com) Quarterback Tom Brady thaws Bitcoin from a block of ice in a new ad for FTX | Fortune Cheddar Flow on Twitter: "Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse 😬 “Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a “back door” in FTX’s book-keeping system…” The back door let him move $10 Billion in funds to Alameda without triggering internal compliance or accounting https://t.co/gj5UQ6KpMJ" / Twitter The Swiss National Bank Began Unloading its Biggest US Stock Holdings, incl. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta | Wolf Street NI Protocol: UK-Irish relations have improved significantly - Irish PM - BBC News Have a great day Team PVM

US inflation cools in October. Overall #inflation as measured by CPI rose 7.7% YoY, way below the 7.9% est. Core CPI, increased 6.3% YoY, below the 6.5% YoY expected... forced one of the larger short squeeze days in memory in the ARKK like stocks that had been bombed out lately..duration rallies, long-end rallies 30bp or so and USDollar has one of its sharpest daily (few hours) decline in years...we talked a lot recently about consensus usd positioning... >>>> Strip away housing from core and CPI fell for the first time since May 2020, however with inflation still at 7.7% the FED cannot turn outright dovish (or maybe they do but will do more QT...) #China supercharges the softer U.S infl data/peak inflation, peak usd, peak worries view...with easing of quarantine & flight bans in a significant change of the Covid Zero policy, anything China limit up pretty much. (HSI Tech was too oversold...), Cathay Airlines will increase passenger flights between China mainland and Hong Kong Fed's Mester "monetary policy is going to need to be more restrictive", kind of stopped the short-covering rally in eq with SPX right on resistance levels around 3'920 (and USD turned as well) Layoffs coming to AMZN next: employees in certain divisions were told to look for jobs elsewhere in the company as their teams were being suspended or shut: Dow Jones FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, Setting up its downfall. FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried told an investor this week that Alameda owes FTX about $10bn...Madoff would be proud of Sam! UK and EU ‘not far apart’ on NI Protocol, says Brussels’ ambassador to London The crypto world 'issues' not over, in theory it won't matter too much to the rest of the market but might be a pretty harsh reality with those heavily involved directly, I fear Pension Fund will think twice and for a much longer time horizon before stepping in again (Ontario Teachers only to name one, let's hope not too many other PF's got involved!!.. far too many celebrities got involved to pump it all up, too little or no regulations, there were so many red flags all along, ignored by too many..sadly Elon Musk 'tells Twitter staff at all-hands meeting that bankruptcy is not out of the question' - The banks selling Elon’s Twitter debt were getting bids of 60¢ on the dollar *before* he said bankruptcy is possible (it's his company now..) Markets : MASSIVE turn on the USDollar, bonds, GOLD, equity (duration, ARKK etc) GOLD and 2y yields UST... >>> were all those we pointed out in recent weeks that will react the quickest on any signs of 'peak worries' USDJPY broke the big 145JPY level and never looked back, AUDUSD 0.6525+, CABLE 1.16+, EURUSD 1.0075+ only to name a few pairs, as long we remain above those levels, the USD long consensus was so big, we can still see some pain there into year-end... GOLD...In Gold we trust (long-term), even better XPT BONDS 30-40bps lower across curve, pretty brutal, as discussed recently, the Terminal rate is around 4.5/5% and the market had that priced in pretty much, now we should and will most likely get 50bps in Dec from Fed, but the market is taking the view it's the top (doesn't mean rates go lower for now, IMHO...patience, ) Equity markets, break of the 3925+ SPX500 confirmed for perhaps as high as 4150 big resistance area, duration/ARKK/non-profitable index etc which had been hammered/most shorted...., reacted the strongest, as you would imagine Europe's Gas Use Slides 22% as Households Keep the Heating off (mild weather helping..clearly too) Crypto - still shaky ...the moves were fast and brutal, totally Algo tastic driven for the first 4-5pct! in Eq. Huge post-CPI price action: and more overnight as China markets in re-opening/rally mode! S&P +5.3% = best day since Apr 2020 Nasdaq +7% = the best day since 2020 5yr yield biggest 1-day drop since 2009 DXY -2.25% = the worst day since 2015 Most shorted stocks jump almost 11% in one of the most violent rallies ever - more in this thread from the excellent Liz Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "This year’s losers were today’s winners; Tech pulled ahead with stunning 8.3% gain, followed by REITs & Cons Discr with gains of 7.7% … NASDAQ surged by 7.4%, which brings MTD gain to only 1.1% and YTD loss to -29% … Russell 1000 Value continues to lead MTD https://t.co/q7jct19XdV" / Twitter https://s358.podbean.com/pb/c3df747106c5b99f30211747013951c5/636e17a5/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2022_11_11_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=9e8f411a-f227-5706-b742-dc0151b61c72 Great charts from Saxo's daily and CPI print triggers historic day across markets (podbean.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, where energy crisis is easing somewhat. Electricity price w/1y delivery now just >€300 per MWh, while the price of gas is ~€100 per MWh. But that's also due to the mild weather. The real test to come next week, when temperatures are expected to drop. https://t.co/SEB6EfBKbq" / Twitter StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: ""The October report supports the idea that we are moving past the firmest period for inflation and that a decent amount of the inflation we have seen over the past year will prove to be temporary or TRANSITORY in nature" - JPMorgan https://t.co/GARPzbZDD5" / Twitter jeroen blokland on Twitter: "On a 3-month annualized basis, flexible prices dropped by 0.7%. Sticky prices, however, were 'steady' at 6.9% annualized. https://t.co/bxlsTVMSF5" / Twitter UK and EU 'not far apart' on NI Protocol, says Brussels ambassador (cityam.com) FTX’s Bankman-Fried Quietly Invested More than $500 Million in Sequoia and Other VCs — The Information Sam Bankman-Fried invested hundreds of millions in Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, Multicoin and Altimeter, the same VC firms that backed FTX. These ties show just how deeply entangled Silicon Valley VC firms are in SBF's collapsing crypto empire. Who are the notable investors going down as FTX collapses? | Cryptopolitan The FTX ship has sunk, taking with it a number of prominent investors. The last several days have been a roller coaster. Binance is abandoning its intentions to acquire the embattled crypto exchange on Wednesday. Sam Bankman-crypto Fried’s enterprise is on the edge of implosion as a result. Private investors valued FTX at $32 billion earlier this year. SoftBank Vision Fund Loses $7.2 Billion as Writedowns Persist (9984) - Bloomberg US election: Trump tears into rising Republican rival DeSantis - BBC News no way back Donald Minister warns of ‘catastrophic’ power interruptions unless gas accepted as transitional fuel – The Irish Times Minister warns of ‘catastrophic’ power interruptions unless gas accepted as transitional fuel have a great day team PVM

FTX and crypto world, all that can be said is that there will be massive changes going forward, too many 'strange stuff gone on'' to be polite, too many people got caught with it all, as usual SEC and others get in there too late... : risk is the whole story is far from over, it can get worse, giant margin call etc etc. Investments in FTX MtM down to zero. FTX might have been some sort of very bad combination of LEHL (illiquid, undercapitalized) and something like MF Global (illegal use of client funds to fund its own terrible investments). The regulators probably quite happy in a way, ''we told you so' a while back, for now at least there does not seem to be much contagion but beware! Watch stuff like Tether etc, if stocks go down from here (CPI this afternoon), the Fed didn't seem to mind too much recently, if a mainstream bank was caught into this crypto deleverage then the CB will notice though, as long as it is specific to crypto, suspect FED won't mind too much, we still hvae 60ish bps priced for December Fed meeting, still think 50bps most likely scenario in Dec U.S med terms take away, IMHO, Reps will 'have' to move on and away from Trump fast for De Santis, and the Dems should do the same with Biden, and go with someone like Buttigieg Republicans limped toward control of the House as Democrats eyed maintaining the Senate in an election that boded better for Joe Biden and worse for Donald Trump than forecast. Biden said he still plans to run again for president in 2024. Despite GOP themes of inflation and crime, voters also focused on abortion rights and the threat to democracy itself. Still, the fate of the president's agenda hangs in the balance and government gridlock looms Chicago #Fed’s Evans Says It’s Time to Slow Pace of Rate Hikes >>> something breaking underneath...shadow banking and crypto, techs, ARKK and the non-profitable Index type names..Bond strategists-economists see terminal rate 4.75/5.00%-BBG France just legislated that every parking lot for 80 cars or more must be covered by solar panels that’s 11GW of new solar (same as 10 new nuclear reactors) powering millions of homes - zero new land needed - brilliant idea clearly The pace of #earnings downgrades has accelerated in the US, especially compared to Europe, as a Citigroup Inc. gauge of US earnings changes has had 23 consecutive negative prints, the longest losing streak since early 2020 - Bloomberg IEA's Birol: OPEC+ Production Cuts May Put Further Upward Pressure on Inflation and Weaken the Global Economy. Oil Prices Flirting with $100 a Barrel "Real Risk" for Global Economy Credit-Suisse, the embattled Swiss lender is marketing an 11-year fixed-to-floating-rate dollar bond at around 9 per cent – levels more consistent with where high-yield borrowers are currently trading, according to Bloomberg indexes. Russian troops ordered to leave Kherson. Israeli military analyst: 70% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is incapacitated. "This does not mean that they are drowned, just incapacitated, meaning they can't carry out any offensive actions," Yigal Levin, former officer of the Israel Défense Forces, told Radio NV U.S Techs sell-off everywhere, retail consumers hurt by higher inflation, real-estate falling at fastest pace since 2011, industrial manufacturing activity softer, financial layoffs beginning on relatively large scale on revenues decline, clearly not very good signs Markets : Crypto world going for the big selloff by the looks, where was BTC in March 2020 - just before the big QE from the FED and all other CB's ?... with many stocks back to pre-covid levels, like Disney yesterday, why shouldn't BTC go back down towars 7K area, ETH was <200$.. >>> this is not a call just an observation ARK Innovation ETF sell-off deepens as crypto-related stocks like Robinhood, Coinbase, Block & Roblox crash, ARK now down almost 80% from high. Gold to take back its right as 'the' safe heaven USD weakened into med-term elections; this may have to reverse on a solid CPI and/or CPI is softer, and markets start to price 25bps for Dec and a shift etc etc U.S 10's bond auction last night was pretty awful, biggest tail since 2016 (3.5bps), 30's coming now Equity markets were also bought into med-terms, struggling, though for now we keep in sight 3600/3900 SPX500 range, with the soft weak names still under pressure, real economy vs the rest struggling (crypto, ARKK, GS non profitable companies type index, highly leverage balance sheet, China still not really recovering etc) we could see some pretty decent moves either way from after this CPI, as it is likely to set the tone for year-end Reporter: "Do you think @elonmusk is a threat to national security?" Biden: "It's worthy of being looked at." U.S. Treasury's $35 billion auction of 10-year notes was 'absolutely awful,' says Bleakley's Boockvar - MarketWatch Margin call contagion from crypto (podbean.com) Saxo : Today we look at the sudden shift of the plot over the last 24 hours as the crypto contagion effects from the meltdown in that space have reached sufficient magnitude to impact sentiment across markets. We emphasize caution on the network effects among many clusters of assets held by the same hands holding crypto. Also, a look at where we are with the equity risk premium as investors better not hope for "normal" equity valuations. A glance at FX and the USD rising on liquidity concerns and brushing off the drop in US treasury yields, which brings into question the reaction function around today's October US CPI release, which may not have the impact previously anticipated, even on a surprise Here is what the FED was saying approx 1 year ago : - interest rates will not have to rise until 2024 - don't worry, we are expecting a safe landing - a recession is very unlikely - housing market is not a bubble - and the best one, inflation is transitory, will fall to 2% in 2022 - literally all statements were wrong - ECB is still wrong and blaming global warming for higher inflation! Bitcoin's electrical cost has just been breached for the 2nd time only in 5 years. The electrical bill for the average miner is now greater than the income earnt Contrary to Evans, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin says the central bank has to accept higher risks of causing a recession as the price of getting control of inflation: "If we back off for fear of a downturn, inflation comes back even stronger and requires even more restraint." Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan faces a hit on investment in crypto trading platform FTX - The Globe and Mail got out of energy, oil and bought into crypto's...The irony of Ontario Teachers Pension Plan investing in FTX, which is actually banned in Ontario (because Canadian regulators deemed them too risky)... Authorities raid UBS offices in Germany - Citywire Binance-FTX: Crypto industry seeks to limit amount of ‘blood in the streets,’ Smartmedia co-founder (yahoo.com) The Block: Multicoin Capital hit by FTX collapse, with 10% of its fund's AUM stuck on the exchange Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg's letter announcing the cuts (cnbc.com) Mark Zuckerberg apologizes as #Meta announces 11,000 jobs cut. Says ‘I got this wrong.’ Job cuts represent ~13% of Meta’s employees BUT that's just about 1/3rd of the jobs Zuck has created since the pandemic Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "The mega cap stocks-to-S&P 500 ratio just broke down from a decade-long support. While perceived as safe, FAANG and other large companies are in free fall relative to the overall market. These stocks remain historically expensive and there is likely more downside ahead. https://t.co/sERiGenMqf" / Twitter Marks & Spencer profit dented as Ocado joint venture books £0.7m loss (cityam.com) Brits told they should brace themselves for even higher food and drink prices (cityam.com) Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Twitter: "There is no such thing as a "liquidity" crisis with cryptos. A liquidity crisis is for something that has some hard intrinsic value. This is just a crisis." / Twitter and this is the real issue imho The Block: Lack of FTX buyer would leave 'giant hole' in crypto markets: Circle CEO Swiss government takes further measures to prevent energy crunch - SWI swissinfo.ch ‘This Is Ron DeSantis’ Party’: ‘Morning Joe’ Panel Says Trump ‘Lost’ America | The Daily Caller Trump was furious yesterday, particularly about Mehmet Oz, and was blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz -- including his wife, describing it as not her best decision, according to people close to him Democrat beats Trump-backed election denier in key Michigan race | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian Peter Schiff: The Gold Train Has Left the Station | SchiffGold Iran's army says "rioters" will have no place in country if order given by supreme leader - Mehr | Reuters Russia says troops leaving strategic Kherson, Ukraine doubts full pullout | Reuters Challenges to financial stability | Sveriges Riksbank “It is not the Riksbanks role to facilitate individuals participants who have taken excessive risks” Adidas warns of big earnings hit after ending Ye partnership (cnbc.com) As recently as June of this year, Credit Suisse "aced" the Fed's stress test. And now, 4 months later, CS was forced to sell assets, fire thousands and raise billions in emergency capital ... at very expensive levels ! Credit Suisse forced to pay junk-level yields for cash infusion | The Straits Times Beyond Meat reports wider-than-expected loss, falling revenue (msn.com) ..Sales down 22.5% in the last 3 months. Losses up by 180%, for every $1 of product it sells costs $1.82 to make........... Rishi Sunak seeks to fix relations with Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford at summit with devolved governments – UK politics live (theguardian.com) Have a great day Team PVM