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USDCNH 7+ / ChatGPT Altman admits / McCarthy 'sounds' optimistic / USD and US rates firm(er)



  • 'It could go quite wrong': ChatGPT inventor Sam Altman admits A.I. could cause 'significant harm to the world' as he testifies in front of Congress

  • Biden cancels Australia visit as debt ceiling default nears.US Debt Ceiling: Kevin McCarthy said a deal to avoid a US default is possible within days after meeting Joe Biden. Biden trimmed his planned visit to Asia, dropping stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea

  • It took the Fed to hike 10x (500 bps in cumulative increases), the effective FFR (5.08%) is finally above the rate of inflation in the US (4.99%) >>> something that hasn't happened since 2010, we've had ultra-easy monetary policy persisting pretty much at all times

  • During a hearing on bank failures by the US Senate Banking Committee, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy grilled former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on his investment choices while in charge (thread below - always someone else's fault..)

  • Russia exporting more oil than ever, almost all to China and India

  • "The tower at 350 California in San Francisco, valued at $300 million in 2019, is expected to trade at about $60 million''

  • U.S Auto loan and credit card interest rates just hit a record high

  • Elon Musk hits out at ‘la la land’ home working – and reveals his own punishing schedule

  • Europe's Inflation breadth is improving. The share of goods and services in the euro area HICP whose prices are rising has dropped back in line with historical average

 

Markets :
  • After yesterday's move, YTD returns for the Dow (as well as that for the Russell) shows the significant performance dispersion in US markets.. and it’s not only the contrast between the NQ's near 20% performance, the differences are even (much) bigger if/when you look at single stocks

  • USDollar slightly stronger, '''EURUSD run out of steam above 1.10+''' couple of weeks back, as U.S rates start to pick up a little relative to RoW again. Weak chinese macro data also pushing USDCNH back to 7+

  • SPX500 seems to be running out of steam 4150-4200 area, but none of this matters for the techs and systematic funds until say 4040 breaks down and sort of confirms a 'top' up there, need to make lower lows etc..

 



U.S : Average interest rates:


- Credit Card: 25%

- Used Cars: 13%

- New Cars: 10% ...as total houseghold debt hit $17trn, ajuto loans about $1.5trn, credit card debt anothere $1trn






Personally and FIWI.. I'm sure it has some great advantages, and some of it is fun..but we should establish what the downside risks area.. and we should regulate it somewhat, it's another example of a new technology that pops up and has no regulation (yet), after crypto and many other things, we have seen what happens when its not somewhat regulated...)



Another scum for his/their mates



Tighter US credit conditions caused by the banking crisis will make a recession and a deeper Fed easing cycle all the more likely. These events strengthen the case for a weaker dollar. We are raising our year-end EUR/USD forecast to 1.20. The path to a weaker dollar will be a rocky one, however. Any breakdown in US money markets could send the dollar stronger



Whaoo!








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