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Fed 'skipping' / Russia update, Belgorod../ U.S debt ceiling drama still, kick the can to Sep ?



  • FED talks and expectations between a hike, a pause or cuts, now the chatters are for a 'skipp - skipping! , telegraphed by few Fed officials >>> wouldn't be too surprised if the ''debt ceiling can'' gets kicked into September too

  • Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum . Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites. All eyes on impact of 4% pay rise at major firms, the largest in 30 years

  • CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event >>> a reminder that CDS 'trading or hedging' is just a tool ahead of the event, rarely do they payout..

  • US Bank Deposits are down 5.6% from their peak last year, the largest drawdown we've seen since 1975 >>> no wonder if banks don't want to pay any or hardly any interest on deposits, funds will (continue to) go to MM Funds and UST's..

  • FT-“Germany recorded its highest level of foreign direct investment last year with a surge in UK companies setting up operations to retain a post-Brexit presence in the EU” Brexit has been a boom for other European countries!

  • Russia : Putin will never stop his invasion of UKR >>> the only way it ever stops is if/when other Russian soldiers ''to their own things'' internally and through massive defections etc, Russian propaganda narratives are becoming increasingly gloomier and more anxious as the "special military operation" continues, Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia

  • "Our call for a more meaningful decline in the S&P 500 in 1Q/1H23 has been wrong," Mike Wilson (a big bear giving up)

  • Pretty extraordinary PMI numbers from Germany this morning. Manuf at 42.9 is in a sharp contraction Services at 57.8 are seeing quite a surge >>> so UK like (ECB can spin it as they wish going forward and skip!?)

  • French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24%

 

Markets :
  • Commodities, copper, steel all a little softer again, precious metals struggling too, XAUUSD pretty key support around $1950 area - chart below

  • UST' doing some pretty strong 'tightening' work (no longer 75bps of cuts priced in by end of 2023!).., 2's back to 4.36!..higher for longer, skip (why not), the risk was always IMHO that a pause, a skip, does NOT mean cuts are coming as quickly as already priced by markets, thus the 'regional bank' risk will probably come back one way or another

  • SPX500 4200, NQ, megacaps, small breath, RTY is all known, DAX near ATH's too

 

Fed Officials Consider Skipping a Hike in June — But Don’t Call It a Pause - Bloomberg

It's not a pause, it's a SKIP


Ian Harnett on Twitter: "Sorry that we have to repeat this message - but the key reason to remain cautious is that the CREDIT CRUNCH FOR CORPORATES IS ONLY JUST STARTING… https://t.co/Az3XnJb72C" / Twitter


Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is facing difficult demographic times. Old-age dependency ratio has already risen well >30: fewer than 3 people of working age face one person of retirement age. Only in Japan, Italy & Finland is the population even more over-aged. (HT @Tiefseher) https://t.co/WHt379fcEP" / Twitter


Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "An organization calling themselves "Freedom of Russia Legion" published a video on their Telegram channel. "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship! Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home! Russia will be free!" They said after criticizing… https://t.co/9a7p31em82" / Twitter

LOTS of those type of comments/action on Twitter these days, looks like internals are rising..

>>> The Post-Putin World Will Be So Much Better than This One – Real Context News (RCN)

Russia-Ukraine war live: Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia (theguardian.com) etc etc..


Peace, food and fertilizer: African leaders' challenge heading to talks with Moscow, Kyiv | AP News


S&P Global PMI™ on Twitter: "Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite #PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum. @jibunbank Read more: https://t.co/UqauL0swwF https://t.co/m96DBJwXhn" / Twitter

and yet ...they still doing QE, YCC etc


Neue Nord-Stream-Theorie: Deutsche Ermittler haben wohl entscheidende neue Spuren entdeckt. Sie führen in die Ukraine (weltwoche.ch)

That's another twist to the plot of who bombed the Nord-Stream pipeline..


The London Economic on Twitter: "Yvette Cooper struck quite the nerve with Suella Braverman 👀⏬ https://t.co/PXZikcTLAh" / Twitter

Suella Braverman did ‘nothing untoward’ by allegedly seeking private speeding course | The Independent >>> The issue is not her having a 1on1 course. It’s asking Civil Servants to arrange for it. It was a private matter, nothing to do with her public duties


CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event - Bloomberg

Also called in some corners ''financial manipulation'


Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites - Nikkei Asia


Why car parks are the hottest space in solar power - BBC News


Fact Check: Was There an Explosion at the Pentagon? (newsweek.com)

MAD AI !..


Here's Why the US Doesn't Have to Pay Off Its $31 Trillion Debt: Krugman (businessinsider.com)

Can I also not repay my debt ?


French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% | BT | The Guardian


$1950 XAUUSD is the level





















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