It's been 10years, all those promises.. net results anything from 3-8pct lower GDP, and the global equity market rally that passed the U.K by, and now the country changes PM's all too often, many things have become ungovernable ! it was all pretty clear this was coming... Iran updates : The U.S waived sanctions on Iran for 60 days from Monday after the first talks under a nascent ​peace deal, while officials reported a sustained lull in fighting in Lebanon under the agreement aimed at ending hostilities across the region, crude low 70's, ''almost'' back to where it was pre war, Markets : UST yields decoupling (inflation, hawkish FED, large corp and govt issuance..!) from lower crude prices (same as JPY - no recovery so far with lower crude prices), Japan's Katayama held talks with US Treasury's Bessent on financial markets #JPY >>> HUGE IPO's have a tendency to arrive at/near peak of the markets ! #SpaceX , as discussed lately, should be no surprise to anyone if Techs, big Techs, QQQ peak around now...a reminder that SpaceX still trades near 100x sales, which is completely nuts.., momentum can change very rapidly.., >>> ''Dot-com was an equity bubble. AI is becoming an infrastructure debt bubble'' The U.K. economy has largely failed to experience a post-Brexit boost after upending ties with its largest trading partner. While shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 hit growth globally, Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom estimates that by 2025, Brexit had reduced the U.K.’s GDP by 6-8%. OIL : The reduction in Chinese oil imports is one of the most important reasons oil prices are not going through the roof right now Saudi Arabia just dropped a bombshell: “We can no longer stand side by side with Trump. Let him save himself first, then save us.” SpaceX sheds $400bn in market value as debut rally hits reverse. Shares in Elon Musk’s AI and rockets group tumble more than 16% following fresh rise in US bond yields >> back down to earth ! Meta said on Monday it will pause ‌an internal program that tracks employee mouse movements and digital activity for ‌AI training as the social media giant investigates data security concerns Oracle's total workforce declined 13%, 21,000 employees, in fiscal 2026, AI adoption BofA now expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year, reversing its prior view of no changes. The firm sees 25 bps hikes in September, October, and December, taking the Fed funds range to 4.25%–4.5% by year-end. BofA now expects the first Fed rate cuts to come in 2028 10 years on: 'What Brexit changed for us' Brexit 10 years later: UK economy and politics in charts Japan's Katayama held talks with US Treasury's Bessent on financial markets - CNA Goolsbee sees 'note of unease' as Fed looks to next interest rate move Mike McGlone on X: "Crude, Gold, Commodities May Be No Match for T-Bonds in 2026 Gold, crude oil and the broader commodities complex are showing signs of peaking vs. US Treasury bonds. Surging commodity volatility stands in stark contrast to subdued Treasury-bond risk metrics. My analysis https://t.co/TjI7hjyhkW" / X Apollo Debt Solutions flagship fund hit by 17pc redemption requests US authorizes Iranian oil sales amid talks on final peace deal | Reuters Mark Leonard on X: "1/Ten years ago, Britain voted for Brexit. New ECFR/Mandate polling out this morning reveals something Westminster hasn't noticed: the country has quietly changed its mind — and not in the way you'd expect. The Leave/Remain divide is dead. Here's what replaced it. 🧵" / X China Moves the Price of Oil, Even When It Buys Less - The New York Times WAR on X: "🇸🇦🇺🇸MASSIVE U-TURN ALERT! Saudi Arabia just dropped a bombshell: “We can no longer stand side by side with Trump. Let him save himself first, then save us.” Saudi Arabia’s major announcement — for the first time in over 80 years, the Saudis are saying NO to the United https://t.co/Axm38GVNEX" / X Meta to pause internal mouse-tracking tech while examining data security issues Oracle workforce shrinks by about 21,000 employees

Iran updates : Brent crude falls after US-Iran talks, Iran said it had secured waivers for oil & petrochemical exports + the release of some frozen assets, reviving hopes that sanctions relief could return up to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude, Millions of barrels of oil flowed through Hormuz over the weekend despite Iran’s claims that it had closed the chokepoint again, Vance got (properly) humiliated at the talks in Luzern, ''Trump has gone from America First to Iran First'' many GOP saying..''The art of the surrender'' others are saying.. Markets : NIKKEI keep surging, UK on 'PM resignation' watch, SpaceX draws MSCI's lowest ESG rating, Norway introduces AI restrictions for under 13s, EURUSD key support 1.1400-50 (medium term stuff), USDCHF key res 0.8100 area, we like CHF weaker 'carry' also via EURCHF, GBPCHF (Burnham risk), BTC key 60K support, Apollo ''The Market is paying a premium for Companies that lose money'' (chart available if necessary, China restricts trading with some US rare earth companies SpaceX handed lowest possible ESG rating by MSCI. Triple C score puts Elon Musk’s company on par with Russia after 2022 invasion of Ukraine Meloni’s clear: allies must be respected, not obeyed. Partners must be engaged, not feared. And Europe must defend its interests with strength, pride and political courage #URA - A 155-ton reactor in Italy running on molten lead, with electric heaters faking the uranium, is about to make real electricity with zero nuclear fuel inside, a full-size test of the metal before any fuel goes in China targets dozens of U.S. firms in retaliation for Pentagon blacklist China restricts trading with some US rare earth companies Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Fires Back At Trump In New Salvo - AOL Trump told La7 that Meloni begged for a photo at the G7. Meloni answered, on camera, in Italian, "Neither I nor Italy ever beg." Trump escalated on Truth Social, claiming she asked "over and over" and suggesting her low approval traces back to declining to back the Iran war. Meloni answered again, in writing, that her popularity depends on defending Italian interests, not on her relationship with him, and that American base access in Italy runs on mutual agreements rather than personal goodwill. That last sentence is the real one. She is not describing a friendship gone sideways. She is describing an alliance with terms, and reminding him those terms do not include flattery. The biographer calls this a strategy shift among world leaders. It reads more like one head of state finally saying the obvious part out loud.... Iran war live: US-Tehran agree roadmap to reach final deal in 60 days | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera A 155-ton reactor in Italy running on molten lead, with electric heaters faking the uranium, is about to make real electricity with zero nuclear fuel inside, a full-size test of the metal before any fuel goes in SpaceX draws MSCI's lowest ESG rating, matching Russia after Ukraine invasion (SPCX:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha UBS zwingt Kunde nach 40 Jahren zu Digital-Identifikation – Inside Paradeplatz Swiss government warns of severe heatwave - SWI swissinfo.ch Stay cool ! Mark Leonard on X: "1/Ten years ago, Britain voted for Brexit. New ECFR/Mandate polling out this morning reveals something Westminster hasn't noticed: the country has quietly changed its mind — and not in the way you'd expect. The Leave/Remain divide is dead. Here's what replaced it. 🧵" / X Starmer expected to announce exit plan to clear way for Burnham to become PM | Keir Starmer | The Guardian UK jobs data error: ‘Artificially dampen’ labour market changes, dealing fresh blow to data credibility – Firstpost China targets dozens of U.S. firms in retaliation for Pentagon blacklist 'This might actually force some actual brain cells to fire': Norway is banning younger school kids from using generative AI | TechRadar NIKKEi keeps surging, UK

Iran talks shaky .. : Vance pulled out of scheduled Switzerland negotiations, with the Swiss foreign ministry confirming the talks would not proceed, while Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon continued overnight. Markets : JPY back on intervention watch, FED's hawkishness pushes USD higher as you would expect, USDCHF breaking UP.. #EURCHF #GBPCHF with it and #JPYCHF (SNB can intervene more, technically looking good med-term perspective, JPYCHF PPP is far far away like 30% at a minimum as per most investment banks, SNB balance-sheet is 200bn smaller than in 2022 so room to intervene if they want to - PLEASE ASK, if you need more details on this!!), crude back up a bit towards $80 on Iran talks 'struggling', PALL back to attractive 'buy' levels after sell-off from Q1!, Ukraine left the G7 with Trump backing oil sanctions on Russia instead of leaning on Kyiv. Europe helps Trump stabilize his Iran deal and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. This is transactional diplomacy UK's Burnham says Labour has final chance to change after Makerfield by-election win for UK markets ! .. only one way Welfare spending needs to be brought under control Iran US Israel war Live Updates: Trump Optimistic on Ceasefire On All Fronts Even As IDF Continues Striking Lebanon | Times Now U.S.-Iran accord hits early snag after Swiss talks fail to proceed as planned Lebanon state media says 16 killed by Israeli strikes Trump offers Ukraine olive branch at G7 — with a price tag – POLITICO G7 leaders arrived in France expecting a fight over Iran, Ukraine and the next NATO summit. They left more upbeat after Trump signaled readiness to increase pressure on Putin and keep working with allies Gulf airlines get back to business as flights near pre-war levels | Reuters Macro Alpha on X: "🚨 The ultimate export-driven free-trade engine of the world is officially capitulating. Berlin floating an EU version of Section 301 tariffs against China is the death knell for the post-2000 supply chain consensus. They are bleeding out from a €100bn bilateral trade deficit https://t.co/0TFmQ1sxFg" / X This is a violent, structural regime change in global MACRO. Tariffs mean permanently higher friction costs, structurally higher INFLATION floors, and a massive repricing of European margin structures. SPCX’s next big raise — SpaceX reportedly readies $20B bond offering to refinance debt Musk's financial engineering, but hey why not do it when you can ! EU set to remove barriers to banks' cross-border capital flows, FT reports Japan core inflation holds steady in May, matching expectations despite energy price concerns Andy Burnham says his Makerfield by-election win could be turning point Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run | Andy Burnham | The Guardian Robert Peston on X: "In May’s local elections, Labour’s implied vote share was 24.3% and Reform’s was more than 50%. Last night Labour’s Andy Burnham received about 55% of the vote, a full 20 percentage points more than Reform’s Robert Kenyon. So Burnham returned what looked like a safe Reform" / X Palladium Price Live: Analysis & Price Trends | GOLDINVEST

Iran 'final update' : The U.S. and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect, two U.S. officials told Axios, so no Burgenstock ? damn.. Markets : Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting sees rates hold steady and makes outright promise to deliver price stability—but don’t expect many details on when!, just 100 words statement, forward guidance is over (Alleluya.. ! ), FX super quiet 'USD slightly higher', USDJPY at or near previous 'intervention levels', equity had a mini close lower, higher again overnight, HSI notably struggling through, Crude $75 welcome development for many clearly (where are all those experts calling for $150 or more..) Warsh said “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue” and “Members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous: this committee will deliver price stability”, he ended the meeting with ''"I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next."... deal with it..>>> Underpinning his emphasis on accountability, his delivery was noticeably more open, engaging, concise, and honest. US, Iran sign deal ahead of Friday meeting Crunching the numbers on Warsh’s lil’ statement statement Ole S Hansen on X: "Crude tumbles as Hormuz reopening nears; gold hit by Fed, lifted by Trump #CrudeOil prices fell to fresh lows after Wednesday’s rebound proved short-lived, with markets continuing to price in a rapid normalization of supply following President Trump's signing of the US-Iran" / X US SEC Innovation Exemption Could Open US Equity Markets to Tokenized Stock Trading US Crude Oil, Gasoline Inventories Still Falling: EIA | OilPrice.com Reform leader Nigel Farage breaking UK company law | The National Magyar Purges Orbán-Era Spy Chiefs, Names Russia Hybrid Warfare Expert - VSquare.org „20 Minuten“ lanciert Arbeiten in Flipflops: Are We Nuts? – Inside Paradeplatz Exclusive: UK in advanced talks with Nissan over Sunderland plant support, sources say | Reuters ‘I’m the boss’: Trump strides into G7 session, leaders demand Lebanon ceasefire | News24 Anthropic’s Dario Amodei Urged AI Unity at G7, Even as US Banned His Models

Iran update : The US and Iran are preparing to sign an interim peace deal which would dole out broad financial incentives to Iran, including the right to immediately sell oil, tap a $300 billion development fund and eventually unlock frozen assets, Tehran threatened Israel with a “harsh response” if it doesn’t stop its military campaign in Lebanon, state-run IRIB reported, anyhow, the Iran deal will be signed on Friday at the beautiful Burgenstock ! Markets : Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, it'll be Very interesting to see if any big changes (drop the dots !), unchanged, easing bias to be left out finally, and watch inflation expectations though !, JPN exports higher on weaker #JPY, SPACEX is rallying because index funds need it and there is only a 4% float so it has to rally (in short-term at least), on $3trn valuations that's 200x sales on about $20bn annual revenues.. >>> FOMC, be open minded, crude prices gives him optionality, markets look a little overcooked on SPACEX momentum, that being said.. nothing much seems to worry them these days.. specially not lower crude prices (DOW made new highs..) Europe’s Defense Renaissance and America’s Missed Signal, Ukraine’s Wartime Innovation Is a Once in a Century Industrial Catalyst The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has just fallen to its lowest level since August 1983- 340.3mb. That's a 42 yr low. No matter where you stand politically, it's a remarkable statistic: America's emergency oil stockpile hasn't been this depleted since the Reagan era, let's hope there is no renewed 'Iran related pressure' France ends the contract between Palantir and DGSI (domestic intelligence agency). Palantir will be replaced by ChapsVision. The contract had previously been renewed several times for lack of alternative. Germany also moved to ChapsVision earlier this year #PLTR Meloni and Trump speak on sidelines of G7 summit after public spat A Strategic Blunder of Epic Proportion | RealClearDefense The Strategic Consequence The United States is not losing influence in Europe because of policy disagreements. It is losing because Europe is building a defense industrial model that is faster, cheaper, more adaptive, and increasingly independent. Ukraine is the catalyst. Europe is the beneficiary. And unless Washington recalibrates, America will be the strategic loser. US Set to Offer Iran Broad Financial Gains in Peace Deal Exclusive | The Trump-Iran Deal Allows Tehran to Immediately Sell Oil - WSJ SpaceX to Acquire Cursor in $60B Stock Deal, Deepening Elon Musk’s AI Empire The deal for Cursor, the AI coding tool, is all stock. No cash. SpaceX issues shares, hands them over, done, great when you can do this! Months before the IPO, SpaceX took $17.5 billion of old junk debt from xAI and X and parked it on its own balance sheet through a $20 billion bridge loan.The terms? Repaid within six months of listing. So part of the $75 billion that retail and index funds just handed over is already spoken for. Not for Mars. Not for rockets. To clear debts piling up at Elon's other companies. Did I just buy buy the rocket ship, or the loans, best financial engineering ever, you've got to admit.. OKAY..its a near $3trn company now so who cares about $20bn... agreed France replaces Palantir in intelligence systems with local firm ChapsVision, PM says – Firstpost Japan May exports grow at fastest pace in over three years, beating estimates China makes new push to take yuan global, vows vigilance on financial risks - Nikkei Asia Streeting says he would be prepared to trigger leadership contest as early as next week Of course he would.. doing Burnham a favour to get potentially back wiht the new PM.. Good news UK inflation holds steady at 2.8% in May BMW lowers profit outlook due to China downturn, Iran war

Iran update : The US is at odds with European allies, which are skeptical about Donald Trump’s promise that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by Friday. Trump will release the text of the MOU on Friday, JD Vance told Fox News, Trump also secretly approved a Qatar-Iran cash deal >>> The markets celebrated the moment Hormuz reopened toll-free, but the agreement behind that headline may be far weaker than anyone wants to admit... Markets : so after all the experts said what they had to say...the world's largest ever oil supply disruption failed to create a major energy crisis..., Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine over U.S tax issue, BoJ hikes and would you believe to the highest level since 1995 (JPY unch, JGB's softer again..), China retail sales down 0.6% YoY, The IEA said 2026 shock was worst than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together. And yet, the cost of oil, natural gas, electricity and coal never surpassed the previous peaks Carney: The new world order will be built from Europe. Canada is the most European of non-European countries, and we are transforming our cooperation with the EU ... In a more dangerous and divided world, Canada has chosen to build and work in partnership with Europe Crimea : A Sevastopol real estate agent says that property prices have already collapsed -40%, Russian leaving Boris and Farage should “hang their heads in shame” for the damage they caused to Britain by leading the campaign that saw it leave the EU Trump threatened to set a 100 percent tariff on French wine and champagne unless Paris removes a digital services tax on technology firms, The New York Post reported Monday China's gasoline demand just fell more than 20% in a single year. EVs are now 60%+ of all new car sales in China Kevin Warsh faces rate hike pressure at first FOMC meeting G7 summit: Ukraine and Iran head agenda Trump secretly approved Qatar-Iran cash deal This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices. The bombshell behind the deal: Trump's own CIA director doubts Iran will keep its word... CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Trump and senior officials that U.S. intelligence raised serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the deal seeks. Mario Nawfal on X: "🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The markets celebrated the moment Hormuz reopened toll-free, but the agreement behind that headline may be far weaker than anyone wants to admit... The MOU that supposedly ended the standoff was reportedly signed without Israel or the Gulf states agreeing to the terms, https://t.co/A6SVZZWw2Q" / X Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine over tax on US tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook - France 24 Chinese economy stalls with investment, consumption in big slump consumption and investment sinking...while Industrial Production increases which they then dump on RoW Australia central bank warns hikes are not off the table as it keeps rates steady at 4.35% Bank of Japan hikes rate to 31-year high Russian navy officers and their families reportedly fleeing Crimea A Sevastopol real estate agent says that property prices have already collapsed -40%. Strait of Hormuz shipping flow will take ‘weeks’ to resume after US-Iran deal, warns Mitsui OSK Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura Heseltine: It’s time to reverse Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage’s ‘heinous crime’ of Brexit | The Independent Mark Carney: Canadian prime minister begins two-day visit to Ireland

Iran final update ? : after 40 ''deals'', the real deal seems to have arrived, signature a the G7 maybe ?.. though Ben-Gvir seems to say the agreement does not bind Israel..some confusion still as to what was actually agreed..markets don't care !...The US and Iran said they have reached an interim accord to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, paving the way for talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. Officials from both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign an agreement. No text has been released by either country, Shipowners remain wary of how the deal will pan out after months of false starts, with nearly 600 vessels primed for exit from the Persian Gulf, ''Trump got outplayed, no matter how you slice it, Iran in a stronger position, they will get billions from the US govt to end this absolutely disaster of U.S foreign policy.. and keep control of Hormuz, well played!'' Markets : Bank of America confirmed the shift, hyperscalers have doubled the non-dollar share of their bond funding to 30% of total issuance in 2026 (thread), U.S froze Anthropic's advances Ai models, markets rally hard on 'the Iran deal', FOMC expected to hold at Warsh's first meeting, drop the dot plot and probably a little hawkish are the expectations, PM's rally as yields drop, bonds rally on lower crude prices, 160+ USDJPY still though, a delayed reaction to lower oil prices and JPY rallies again ? Japan to rebuild 14 nuclear reactors by 2050 The FOMC meeting, retail sales data, Kroger earnings, and more to watch this week U.S. and Iran reach peace deal to end the Mideast war, with agreement set to be signed Friday Visioner on X: "🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇭 BIG | Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher (the lead negotiator) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement alongside U.S. Vice President JD Vance. The meeting will mark the highest-level direct engagement between Tehran and https://t.co/EbjSVgokvb" / X , Ukraine is winning the drone war. Now it needs to win over Trump. Anthropic disables access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to comply with government directive Milk Road AI on X: "This is WILD! Something very large is happening in global bond markets, and most people are completely missing it (Save this). The hyperscalers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have collectively committed $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 alone, up 77% from the https://t.co/hi61C2wgzh" / X UK Stock Market News: Big Yellow, Renewables Infrastructure, Frasers UK forces board sanctioned Russian shadow fleet oil tanker Keir Starmer poised to backtrack on electric vehicle targets Swiss voters reject proposal to cap population at ten million - SWI swissinfo.ch Madness Geneva closes most of border with France for G7 summit - SWI swissinfo.ch Helvetia-Baloise „killt“ nach Jobs auch Mieten – Inside Paradeplatz Daniel on X: "Kevin Warsh's view is clear: AI will eventually force interest rates lower because it will be highly deflationary. "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom." The problem is that today's economy is telling a different story. https://t.co/ljZBEZ20nY" / X Japan to rebuild 14 nuclear reactors by 2050 | New Civil Engineer

SpaceX is expected begin trading on the Nasdaq today after raising $75 billion in the biggest-ever IPO and putting Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the first trillionaire. Shadow markets are pricing in a jump of at least 35% on its debut...bring it on ! Iran war updates : Trump was going to bomb the hell out of Iran, and on same day claimed the war is over, deal to be signed this weekend..Per Axios, Trump agreed that one option for resolving the enriched uranium standoff is down-blending the stockpile inside Iran under UN inspector supervision..Trump folding.. Markets : Stocks extended gains and oil slipped after Trump claimed, for the 28th time.. (amazing algo's love the news still), “we ended the war with Iran” and a deal may be signed as soon as this weekend. Global equity futures rose. The two sides agreed on an MoU, which still needs a final sign-off, to extend the truce for 60 days, ECB hiked as priced and expected. The UST Long Bond at or near 5% will be the tell going forward, as usual 10's UST finds some bond buyers above 4.5% yields., China's oil imports are COLLAPSING (thread) OpenAI weighs major pricing shake-up to counter Anthropic as both companies eye trillion-dollar IPO dreams: Report, and pricing war starting !.. The drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices ..!.. India has received offers for its latest urea tender at an average price of $530 per tonne, down ~44% from $947 per tonne in April China warns EU on new sanctions over Ukraine war, The EU needs to grasp a basic point: China is not a minor state waiting for lectures from Brussels... WSJ - Inside the White House Freakout Over the Epstein Files...The president’s top advisers gathered in a series of Situation Room meetings as they struggled to contain a scandal engulfing Donald Trump himself So Christine finally hiked from 2 to 2.25%, with headline inflation at 3.2%, major energy shock mentioned, that same ECB (and others) that saw inflation as transitory in 2022..., then they lowered 2026 and 2027's GDP forecasts by 0.1% to 0.8% and 1.2% respectively..not very consistent nor credible really, luckily many other CB's aren't either, FOMC and BoJ next week + SNB Biggest news so far this week ! The AI bubble bursting SoftBank tried to borrow $6B against its OpenAI stake — then shares plunged 9.7%. Is the AI boom running into reality? The banks don’t believe OpenAI is worth $850 bn then ? and thus other Ai valuation.. The same OpenAI lost $14 billion in 2026 (lost about 10bn last year)...which just filed for a $1 trillion IPO, looks totally normal ?.. SoftBank needed the loan to keep funding OpenAI., to fund the company they already own 13% of, with money borrowed against the stake they already own. Masayoshi Son previously lost $70 billion on WeWork, he called it, at some point, the most valuable company in the world.... can only guess that the banks remembered WeWork............ fascinating times that for sure! OpenAI weighs major pricing shake-up to counter Anthropic as both companies eye trillion-dollar IPO dreams: Report Prices coming DOWN ! ...after all that Capex spending on higher debt! ECB hikes interest rates for first time since 2023 as Iran war ramps up energy costs Trump says he has canceled strikes on Iran, signals move toward deal China warns EU on new sanctions over Ukraine war The EU needs to grasp a basic point: China is not a minor state waiting for lectures from Brussels. If Europe sanctions Chinese, Turkish, Indian or other firms for not following its Russia policy, it should not be surprised when Beijing hits back. Unilateral, extra‑legal sanctions are not “rules‑based order,” they are raw power politics. And China is not a soft target: its industrial base, market size and control over key supply chains mean any escalation will hurt both sides. Europe still behaves as if it runs the world economy. It doesn’t. If Brussels normalises sanctions, China can just as easily normalise counter‑measures. Do not pick a fight with the factory of the world and then complain when the factory starts stress‑testing your supply chain. Huge too, no wonder Trump is unhinged ... Inside Trump’s White House, the Epstein Files Caused a Freakout - The New York Times Collusion, breaking the law, evading subpoenas—it’s all in there: - Trump quashing the files - The VP, COS, DOJ, FBI, and others colluding in the Situation Room to stop their release and compliance - Officials lying to the public - Admin in-fighting and exits - Officials who appeared in front of Congress during this time UK.. plenty of troubles out there.. Channel Tunnel owner threatens legal action over UK’s tripling of business rates Keir Starmer faces fresh blow after resignations by Al Carns and John Healey over defence spending - live updates - BBC News Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️China's oil imports are COLLAPSING: Chinese crude imports fell to 7.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since October 2017. This marks a decline of -3.8 million barrels per day, or -33%, from the 2025 average of ~11.6 million barrels per day. The drop reflects https://t.co/VLjYuHJpvZ" / X

Yes, the World cup kicks off today! Iran war updates : Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz (help explains relatively soft crude prices?), Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault U.S inflation hit 4.2%, a 3-year high. But strip out the oil war and core inflation actually cooled a little. This is-looks like a supply shock, not demand. The Fed cannot fix the Strait of Hormuz with rate hikes, though the longer crude prices stay high, the hardest it'll be to deal with inflation, add the K economy to it and it's a nightmare.. >>> "Simply put, the inflation of the Iran war will soon force the US (and by extension, much of the West) to choose between “save the currency” (let bond yields rise sharply with inflation, i.e., bond prices FALL sharply), breaking everything but the USD and gold) or “save the bond market” (print USD to cap UST yields to maintain nominal US government solvency, turbocharging the already accelerating and soon-to-be problematic inflation)." Markets : U.S markets fell as U.S CPI rose to a 3y high, Iran worries on the increase again and SpaceX pre IPO nerves tested, FX super quiet, although #CHF a little softer (200dma #EURCHF is around current levels 0.9230.. ), broadly speaking we expect SNB to be unchanged next week (economy soft, inflation near lows..nothing to do, see here..), and rest of the world likely to hike (ECB to hike today all about 'inflation forecast' going fwd, BoJ priced in, FOMC probably unch but hawkish), should keep CHF on soft side, #Oracle falls after hours on 'higher spending', more debt yet again!, which is slowly but surely being questioned across AI-Tech sector, SpaceX a clear 'sentiment' indicator for the whole sector, either way !, OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered ChatGPT getting worse, did you notice ? ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer >> You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse (Thread) Swiss National Bank expected to resist global rate-hike trend: Reuters poll | Euronews Bank of Japan governor Ueda hospitalised, will miss June meeting | Reuters Oracle’s stock slides after earnings, as the steep price of AI spooks investors OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic Pimco Warns a Wave of Defaults Is Coming for Low-Quality Borrowers | Financial Post BofA warns investors to take profits as 70% of the bank's bear market signals flash red Oil tankers go dark to sneak more barrels through Hormuz | The Seattle Times US and Iran exchange strikes across Middle East for second day in a row Iran, US-Israel war LIVE updates: Tehran strikes ships in Hormuz, launches attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US assault - World News | The Financial Express Alex Finn on X: "AI subscriptions are dead Claude Fable 5 will only be on the Anthropic subscription until June 22nd. After that, you will need to pay for usage per token This will be the start of a much larger trend Frontier models will no longer be included in subs You’ll pay a fee and it" / X Nav Toor on X: "You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the https://t.co/hJHOMEnpEh" /

Central Bank update : pretty insane...46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets (Thread), Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate 'hike' from the ECB on June 11th and an 83% probability of a 25bps hike from the Bank of Japan on June 16th. The first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh follows on June 17th Markets : China factory gates hits 4y highs, SpaceX apparently 4x oversubscribed (so sell-off over ? ), interesting political move from Starmer in UK, There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO (Thread), Dollar and yields continue to dictate PM's, gold’s direction >>> a strong CPI today will force ''market to reprice'' FED and look for a 'hawkish' FED meeting next week! South Koreans liquidate savings and insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung rally Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity called X Exclusive-SpaceX IPO demand is approaching four times oversubscribed, source says Philip Pilkington on X: "There is an expected earnings boom in markets right now. But if you look under the hood a lot of it seems to be coming from unrealised gains in stakes of companies that are due for IPO. 📈📉 https://t.co/ogiClS4gNN" / X China's factory-gate inflation hits near 4-year high - RTHK Global Markets Investor on X: "‼️THIS IS INSANE: 46 of 68 global central banks are currently overshooting their inflation targets. The US is running +1.8 percentage points above its 2% target, and the Eurozone +1.2 percentage points above. Meanwhile, markets are pricing a 98% probability of a 25bps rate cut https://t.co/WpOLkm4h9M" / X US and Iran exchange strikes as ceasefire crumbles Iran war live: Tehran targets US forces in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera #ETH Ethereum news: Tom Lee’s BitMine just slashed ETH buying by 74%, here’s what comes next Same as Saylor..Tom Lee's BitMine holds over 5,400,000 ETH, bought at an average near $3,476. With ETH below $1,800, that's roughly $8,900,000,000 in unrealized losses. ‘You can’t fly planes that are empty’: Airlines draw up cuts for ‘ugly’ winter South Koreans Liquidate Savings and Insurance to Chase SK Hynix and Samsung Rally South Koreans are cashing out their insurance policies and savings deposits to pile into the local stock rally. >>> Stuff like this makes you go 'Hummmm', the kind of things you see near overbought, overvalued markets SAXO update from Charu Investor QA Is the AI selloff a reset or a warning shot | Saxo A few key thoughts: This still looks more like a reset within a bull market than the start of a broader bear-market shift. The usual warning signs — recession stress, disorderly yields, extreme oil prices or a broad earnings collapse — are not clearly visible yet. The easy phase of the AI rally is likely over. The market has moved from rerating to proof, which means AI-linked companies now need to show clearer monetisation, earnings delivery, capex discipline and returns on infrastructure spend. This is not a uniform risk-off move yet. The pressure is concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, while defensives, value areas and laggards are still finding buyers. That makes breadth and rotation important signals to watch. Macro is back in the driver’s seat. Strong US data, higher oil, Middle East uncertainty and renewed Fed hike pricing are making markets less willing to look through bad — or even just less-good — news. Gold vs Silver: Which is the best bet this summer? – The Armchair Trader Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is extraordinarily rare. In fact, according to a key figure in the German business community (who is a dear friend of mine), it's unprecedented. An op-ed, two pages, centerpiece, in Germany’s most important economic newspaper (the Handelsblatt) that begs the German https://t.co/k7Uhv2HwaE" / X Keir Starmer is about to burn down the Labour Party - but Andy Burnham will get the blame Back me of you are fired.. fair enough, ministers can't have a foot in both camps..choose between loyalty to the government or support the next dude...., no double dealing, can't support Burnham if they are in government, and it will force Burnham to come with actual policies (rather than walk in on populist ideas that he is better).. fascinating Starmer may tell ministers to quit if they back Burnham - Breaking The News StockMarket.News on X: "The man who called the 2008 housing collapse just made a prediction about Elon Musk that is hard to ignore (Save this). Steve Eisman, the Big Short investor says he fully expects Musk to use the SpaceX IPO stock price to buy Tesla and merge both companies into one giant entity https://t.co/Y2plCdMv1y" / X

In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...this IS a big change, which doesn't seem to bother Mr Market, so far anyway Iran updates : Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will hold fire in Iran for now, vowing to respond with “great force” if Tehran strikes again. The PM said he told Trump that the Jewish state has a full right to self-defense. Oil edged lower, Markets : OpenAI files for IPO, stocks rebound + yet more talks of ceasefire in Iran and a deal, SpaceX’s IPO is well oversubscribed, people familiar said, Morningstar values it at $65, since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged (ALL about AI-see thread), BoJ set to hike on 15th June (all priced now), Steve Eisman is not a SpaceX fan either, it'll be fun that's for sure ! will watch for a far on this one..it's overvalued and not prepared to pay for 'future' parabolic growth on AI.., AND BIG TECHS typically bought back their own shares for years, “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,” .. #KOSPI Analysts warn KOSPI could fall another 20% as foreign investors flee the country in the face of domestic and international inflation. In short, the country’s intentional manipulation of memory markets with Taiwan are risking destroying the global economy by record high inflation #Oil When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production. When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months The Fight to Break China’s Rare-Earth Dominance Moves to a New Front in Brazil. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves and wants to become a processor of critical minerals, but it refuses to choose sides between Washington and Beijing. (WSJ) NZZ : (couldn't agree more, BEWARE!!..)... In the past, major technology companies typically bought back their own shares. “Now they are suddenly raising fresh equity and taking out loans on a massive scale,”...When companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX raise hundreds of billions of dollars in capital through their IPOs, this drains even more liquidity from the rest of the stock market. At the same time, the U.S. government is stimulating the economy through massive new borrowing and the issuance of government bonds with very short maturities, and is also obtaining the necessary liquidity for this on the financial markets. In the next twelve to eighteen months, we’re also facing a so-called “debt wall”: $80 trillion in loans that companies and governments took out at near-zero interest rates during the pandemic now need to be refinanced. “That’s almost twice as much as in normal times and requires additional liquidity,” Trump demands Israel and Iran stand down as new hostilities threaten ceasefire - AOL Analysts Warn: “KOSPI Could Fall as Low as 6,000” - Businesskorea Jim Bianco on X: "Since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged. So, the entire S&P 500 Index rally since February has been driven by AI stocks. But look at what happened on Friday, June 5th! The S&P 500 was https://t.co/VYEtOCxWho" / X Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar 'The Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says he's not a fan of SpaceX's IPO due to concerns about its AI business Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine | Saxo Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens - Bloomberg China Keeps Buying Gold - Tavi Costa Davos Deadlock: Trump Team, EU, and PLATFORM Hold Talks – Why US Citizens Remain Locked Out | The Guardian Odds of Reform winning by-election 'significantly worse' after Rob Kenyon's BBCQT appearance Anthropic's IPO moment is here, but Wall Street wants more – The Armchair Trader

And it has/will clearly have an impact on sentiment pre and post IPO (if it goes well, all next IPO's will go ok, if not, they probably won't..OpenAi, Anthropic etc), some $55bn sold into the close last Friday by CTA's - most likely making room for this.. >>>> S&P Dow Jones did not change rules to make it easier for SpaceX $SPCX to get fast track entry into the S&P 500 (this after NASDAQ did change its rules – (reminiscent of the times when they changed rules in 2000 ?.. ..why change the rules......? ), meanwhile GS expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to surge 100-fold by 2030, these estimates depend on aggressive AI growth assumptions, pretty crazy valuations, take a stab at it and bet on the future ? look for a dip ‘to take a bet on the future’ ? .. Record‑high valuation and multi‑step markup Private valuation ramped from a few hundred billion to around 1.7–2.0 trillion in roughly 18 months, then IPOs at that peak range.Goldman Sachs Predicts SpaceX Revenue Will Surge 100X By 2030 Retail and index buyers are effectively stepping in after a ~5x private re‑rating, with little room for error on growth and profitability. SPACEX: The Biggest Insider Cashout in Market History? | Professor Of Chart By S on Binance Square SpaceX says it’s worth $1.75tn as it targets largest stock market debut All‑primary IPO but designed for fast insider liquidity later The IPO itself is “all‑primary”: only SpaceX sells shares at the offering, so insiders are not selling in the IPO transaction. However, the structure is set up so that insiders can begin unloading relatively soon after, turning later buyers into their exit liquidity. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Unusually aggressive, staggered lock‑up schedule Instead of a standard 180‑day “no selling” lock‑up, SpaceX uses performance‑ and time‑based tranches. SpaceX insiders will get to sell shares earlier than usual after the IPO After the first earnings report as a public company, insiders can sell up to around 20% of eligible shares, with an extra 10% if the stock is about 30% above IPO price. Additional 7% chunks then unlock at multiple short intervals (around 70–135 days), and more shares unlock after the second earnings report, so a large portion can be sold well before 180 days. Musk locked for a year, others aren’t Elon Musk commits to not selling for roughly 366 days, so he cannot use the early‑release tranches. Most other insiders and early investors can, so tens of billions in stock can hit the market months before his lock‑up ends. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Rule changes to fast‑track index inclusion Nasdaq, Russell and potentially S&P adjust their index rules so mega‑IPOs like SpaceX can be added in weeks instead of many months. S&P refuses to waive rules for megacap IPOs ahead of SpaceX listing (SPCX:Pending) | Seeking Alpha This means index funds and many 401(k) / passive vehicles may be forced buyers shortly after listing, creating built‑in demand against which insiders can sell. Low float plus rapid float expansion The IPO starts with a relatively low free float, which can help the price run up if demand is strong. The staggered lock‑up then quickly increases float as insiders sell, potentially creating a series of supply waves into any post‑IPO enthusiasm. SpaceX IPO lock-up structure lets most insiders sell shares early Retail / index buyers as “exit liquidity” The combination of (a) extreme valuation, (b) fast index inclusion, and (c) early insider unlocks is framed as using retail and passive capital as exit liquidity for early investors. If growth or margins disappoint, late buyers could be left holding a highly priced, capital‑intensive and still loss‑making business while insiders have already sold a meaningful slice. Narrative vs. fundamentals risk The IPO is marketed on a huge TAM — rockets, launch, Starlink, AI — and “generational” status, but at >100x sales and ongoing large losses, the margin for execution errors is tiny. The thread’s core claim: even if SpaceX is an amazing company long‑term, the IPO structure and timing are optimized for insiders, not for new public investor SpaceX IPO at $750B: Should You Buy In? [2026]