Iran updates : US President Donald Trump seems to be pursuing a “no war, no peace — just economic pressure” on Iran.., because...America’s depleted weapons stockpiles undermine Trump’s leverage with Iran Markets : crude prices up a bit for the usual reasons, still around $80 WTI, no-one really cares too much at these levels or rather suits most.., USDJPY is back to 159 (155 lows briefly last week - more action required, interventions + rate hike), French 30y yields 4.79% highest since 2008, CHF weakens still at snail pace, but it does weaken (trend), if you like and believe in further BoJ/Bessent JPY interventions, CHFJPY lower long-term is way out of PPP levels!. S&P 500 Price/Book ratio jumps to highest level in history, surpassing the peak of the Dot Com Bubble Nvidia lines up $500 billion in financing as CEO Jensen Huang tells CNBC his chips are ‘investable asset’ >>> so let me get this straight...Larry Fink of BlackRock is comparing Nvidia's $500B fund raise to the creation of Mortgage Backed Securities? I'm sure that MBS instruments have never caused us any issues in the past... UK regulator prepares framework for tokenised gold German truckers take the load as drought hits Rhine shipping. Emergency move to suspend Sunday ban comes as economists warn of hit to country’s GDP growth U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of more than $850 million last week, the largest weekly inflow since April, price unch still low 60K's US court rules Meta, other tech firms must face thousands of lawsuits over social media addiction. A US appeals court on Aug 10 allowed thousands of lawsuits to move forward against Meta Platforms, Alphabet’s Google, ByteDance’s TikTok and Snap Inc’s Snapchat over claims they designed their products to be addictive to young users Nvidia, Wall Street asset managers partner on $500B AI push Japan-U.S. yen intervention: impact on global currency markets Investors Drop Stock Hedges as S&P 500 Rally Drives Options Shift - Bloomberg Munitions shortage constrains Trump's military efforts against Iran German truckers take the load as drought hits Rhine shipping UK regulator prepares framework for tokenised gold Swiss Gotthard road tunnel to close for 12 nights in August - SWI swissinfo.ch Spain imposes border checks on Italian travelers in tit-for-tat move over Ceuta migrants row US President Donald Trump issues backing for under pressure Fifa chief Gianni Infantino - BBC Sport Income investing: Helping your money work for you – The Armchair Trader US social media addiction cases to move forward

Iran says Hormuz deal close but US must meet commitments before strait reopens Saudi Arabia is bracing for attacks on ports and airports by Iraqi militias working with Iran-backed Houthi rebels, a Saudi official told CNN, then again Iran says US & Israel cant use Straits of Hormuz ...it's still a bit up in the air.. WTI sub $80 though, markets seem not to be bothered.. Markets : The S&P 500 is now up more than 100% since Michael Burry told people to sell in January 2023...eventually it'll be right, one day..‘Sell America’ Debate Re-Emerges as US Policies Sow Some Doubts, Global gold ETFs added $3 billion in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows, The Fed is not going to hike, says Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner, technically, USDJPY needs to go well below and stay below 200dma to worry any long-term carry trades (levels sub 156 JPY ideally), PM's definitely put a big base in last 2months, strong rally of lows.. Just three companies, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, have already sold nearly $170 billion of investment-grade bonds so far in 2026, dwarfing last year's total tech issuance: Bloomberg. And they keep issuing, with Alphabet today looking to sell an additional $25 billion of bonds China’s exports growth beats estimates in July, as AI-driven shipments surge Apparently everyone is long and leveraged up... >>> and yet... S&P 500 sees "record" call option buying When gold goes up you will read on X it’s due to physical demand (russia, Korea and few others last few days news).. when it goes down it’s paper selling US court granting an eleventh-hour attempt to prevent the disclosure of the financial performance of the US president’s companies Live updates: Iran says Hormuz deal is close but US must meet commitments before strait reopens | CNN US Treasury's Bessent: Reasonable for Fed to consider upsizing FIMA PUT simply......The US Treasury is printing dollars and buying US Treasury bonds from the Japanese. So the Japanese are in effect dumping US Treasuries but the US is managing the dump by printing dollars and absorbing the bonds. It’s clever - it’s also a little bit desperate >> It’s a version of Open Market Operations, done daily if bond auctions fall short, using FIMA facility that was created in 2022 (back then no treasuries were sold for those reasons)... US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests Federal Reserve could consider raising FIMA liquidity facility Fed's Warsh to stick with scaled-back communications - report | Seeking Alpha Kevin Warsh Opens Door to Surprise Fed Move ‘Sell America’ Debate Re-Emerges as US Policies Sow Some Doubts Bonds, Dollar Weighed Down by Washington Policy Decisions - Bloomberg The Fed is not going to hike, says Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner Traders on Kalshi say it's likely S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "A familiar act of mainstream media sophistry: work backward from a partisan verdict and then call the result analysis. The truth is wages are up for Americans across the distribution, but importantly earnings growth for Main Street workers at the 25th earnings percentile was https://t.co/EggVS98OwC" / X China's exports growth beats estimates in July, as AI-driven shipments surge Pentagon’s Secret Panic After Furious Trump Call Revealed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Mocks Trump After Teleprompter Glitches During News Conference US federal judge halts order for Trump to turn over financial records to BBC | Donald Trump | The Guardian This sounds a lot worse than published.. Plane near drone found at German airport was carrying ammunition, media reports say | Reuters Republicans vote to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress as Democrats blast ‘McCarthy-esque’ hearing | The Independent Asia turns to gold in structural wealth shift - The Banker Hedgeye on X: "Global gold ETFs added $3 billion in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows https://t.co/WOfJlmpjfL" / X Bitcoin party is over, much bigger selloff coming, says Peter Schiff - TheStreet Crypto: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news, advice, analysis and more caviat : he would say that...

PM's had a great week finally moving off the lows, base formation (The Bank of Korea is set to buy physical gold for the first time in 13 years, per Reuters, From August 7, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will increase the purchase of currency/gold to 6.5 billion rubles per day #GOLD ), Asia's largest gold ETF (Huaan Gold ETF of China) saw net inflows for 16 consecutive days! Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed, touching a nerve somewhere..will be interesting to read how the 'journalists' respond when doing their annual review on Bessent and Trump...won't be pretty... Markets : SpaceX lock up ends today, crude WTI around $80, 10's UST 4.61%, JPY giving back a bit of gains, USD near 6 week lows (positioning still long), BTC 65K ? (chart below), It's time to raise rates, cautions Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, More than 4 million S&P 500 call options traded on Tuesday, the most in history (Casino Royale..), Yuan hits strongest level against the U.S. Dollar since February 2023, Copper hits new ATH's, overall markets pretty happy to giddy up in the summer heat ! though as usual some decent vols underneath it all..stay focused ! WSJ : The joint U.S.-Japan support of the yen is unusual. The way it is being financed is unprecedented, and adds liquidity when the punch bowl of the U.S. economy and markets is already overflowing US refunds $100 billion in tariffs struck down by Supreme Court, filing shows Big US hedge funds targeted by wave of cyber attacks. Point72 and Citadel among firms hit by audio phishing schemes Britain’s national debt said to top £3tn "Market leverage is pretty high," JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon SpaceX Won’t Destroy Telecom—It Will Just Reinvent It US refunds $100 billion in tariffs struck down by Supreme Court, filing shows | Reuters Scott Bessent’s Yen Trade Has Unintended Consequences for the Markets - WSJ The Ministry of Finance will increase the purchase of foreign currency in August: the volume of transactions, reasons, impact on the exchange rate Google is expanding its AI empire — and losing the people who built it Big US hedge funds targeted by wave of cyber attacks China reports slight increase in gold consumption - Chinadaily.com.cn The China Gold Association has released that gold production in the first half of the year decreased by 14.62%, while total demand increased by 1.23%, with investment demand growing by 28.42%. China is the world's largest producer of gold. JPMorgan's Dimon Warns of High Market Leverage Risks - Business Insider You bet it is.. SpaceX Won’t Destroy Telecom—It Will Just Reinvent It - Barron's SightBringer on X: "⚡️The Bank of Korea is set to buy physical gold for the first time in 13 years, per Reuters. The central bank plans to hold the gold domestically, rather than storing it at the Bank of England, marking a notable shift in its reserve strategy. This is much bigger than South https://t.co/vnkEYCeUfP" / X What Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Fall Says About This Overleveraged Market - Barron's Britain’s national debt said to top £3tn BTC 65K ? Barchart on X: "Bitcoin $BTC - 3rd time is the charm? https://t.co/aAiZDYKOnj" / X Farage’s popularity is plummeting. In Clacton, voters are losing faith

Markets : JPY : Washington isn't defending the yen. It's defending its own bond market (thread), Texas halts new data centers as governor calls for audits, FED's Warsh talking about fewer central bank meetings to reduce market dependence, for equity markets it'll be THE Perfect Storm, with a 3months 'ceasefire' into mid-terms... (together with Bessent's interventions in JPY, see PM's rally again etc..slightly softer USD overall...and less of a chance of a hike in Sep JPY : Scott Bessent is using moves from his hedge fund days to prop up Japan’s yen—and America’s $40 trillion national debt $8.3 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds, an all-time high France wildfires reveal hundreds of WW2 shells in village U.S.-Iran deal to open Hormuz could come Tuesday or Wednesday: Bessent because... US supply of long-range missiles, THAAD interceptors nearly exhausted: Reports Monetary Policy Perspective: Keeping an Open Mind Live US Debt Monitor Live, check it out ! it's very cool and useful, debt auctions results, levels etc Jeffrey Gundlach on Channel 11: So Much Said, So Little Heard Capex Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg for Big Tech - Barron's Nic on X: "First the US bought yen. Now the Treasury wants the Fed to pay for the defence. What's happening: - Friday: the US bought yen with Japan, first time since 1998 - Sunday: Bessent publicly asked the Fed to upsize its foreign repo facility - Monday: Japan said it will draw that" / X U.S. doing ‘whatever it takes to support’ Japan as Yen plummets: Bessent - National | Globalnews.ca JPMorgan says S&P 500 can defy inflation - TheStreet SpaceX's first-ever earnings show higher revenues and huge spending Japan warns Russia-North Korea axis raises regional security threat - Nikkei Asia DRAM Supply to Remain Tight in 2027, Prompting NVIDIA to Lower HBM Configurations for Rubin Ultra, Says TrendForce Texas halts new data centers as governor calls for audits | TechCrunch FICO says high rates still holding back mortgage volume - TheStreet Elon Musk has blunt response to Mamdani's grocery discount plan - TheStreet Crypto: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news, advice, analysis and more France wildfires reveal hundreds of WW2 shells in village

Copper quietly approaching new highs Copper - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News Iran update : Iran-US war live: Trump says Tehran has 'last chance' to make deal Markets : White House finalizes AI framework behind closed doors, Shell CEO Wael Sawan warns diesel and gasoline are running short, late July 'Leopold' lows was pretty powerful.., UST 10's 4.69% still, 10's JGB's slightly higher yields too at 2.84%, USDJPY lower while we remain under 158-160, risk of further intervention, but more importantly the ongoing change in domestic asset allocation is KEY, this is very important flows of funds heading home, selling foreign assets (currencies), BoJ has convinced markets they will move faster with successive hikes now a strong possibility, so further JPY short unwinding likely.. JPY : Bessent's promotion of the FIMA Repo Facility is just theatre to boost the effect of his FX intervention - similar to his leaking of the his 'to do list.' FIMA Repo makes no sense for Japan (Thread), Bessent is watching the 10y UST vs 10y JGB spread...and thinks USDJPY should be much lower, like 120-130 JPY... Shell CEO Wael Sawan warns diesel and gasoline are running short WSJ : Warsh makes markets do their job.. , Have they forgotten how to price risk without the Federal Reserve guiding them? >>>> Dear Wall Street: pipe down about the Fed already. You're getting paid obscene amounts of money to make smart calls on risk and return in real time — it's a little mortifying to watch you throw a tantrum because Daddy Fed won't hold your hand and tell you what to do anymore....end US Treasury raises third-quarter borrowing estimate to $739 billion | Reuters Trump warns Iran talks are ‘last chance’ to end war White House to host AI companies to review new model-testing framework White House finalizes AI framework behind closed doors Trump says Exxon and Chevron made 'too much money' during Iran conflic Joseph Wang on X: "Bessent's promotion of the FIMA Repo Facility is just theatre to boost the effect of his FX intervention - similar to his leaking of the his 'to do list.' FIMA Repo makes no sense for Japan. The open secret is Japan already has hundreds of billions of dollars parked at the Fed's https://t.co/TjLqzYmeBC" / X US., Japan confirm coordinated yen intervention, signal readiness for more Warsh Makes Markets Do Their Job - WSJ SNB Posts 25.8 Billion Swiss Francs in Profit Over Three Months Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves The SNB's reported jump in foreign-exchange reserves in June 2026 was driven mainly by valuation gains on its existing foreign-currency holdings, not by the central bank actively purchasing roughly CHF 40 billion in new FX. In other words, the higher CHF figure largely reflects market-value swings in USD and EUR assets plus positive investment returns on the portfolio, rather than fresh intervention purchases Shell CEO Wael Sawan warns diesel and gasoline are running short And refineries are being pushed beyond 100% capacity (seriously) by delaying critical maintenance. This raises the risk of explosions. Those are sometimes fatal, too. "Ka-boom" is not a maintenance strategy Bessent Note at Camp David Proves "The End is Nigh" | SilverSeek Palantir Earnings Will Show If the Software Rocket Is Running Out of Fuel - Barron's Wie Schweizer Industrie-Ikonen sich ständig neu ausrichten - News - SRF Richard Tice: Reform UK deputy leader facing parliamentary investigation - Yahoo News UK Surely not.. Barchart on X: "South Korea's 40% stock market crash is now the worst dump in Asian Financial Markets History 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/BRxwthBQxA" / X

Iran Updates : Iran foreign minister says that talks with Oman about transit in the Strait of Hormuz are in their “final stages.”, Trump calls off Iran strikes, crude up, risk up, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei: as long as U.S. "aggression" continues, the strait stays closed. An agreement with Oman over the route is not enough to reopen it Markets : MS upgrades KOREA TO OVERWEIGHT, JPY had it coming, U.S., Japan confirm coordinated yen intervention signal readiness for more ( so they agree JPY is too weak by 10% or so minimum..), The U.S uses EURO to buy JPY (to avoid signalling weaker USD signal..), the real BIG question now is whether the carry trade is still on the agenda, we only corrected 4-5% in USDJPY (this is NOT enough to take out long-.term carry trades...), this intervention was with the U.S participation, so it should/has to matter !..., CHFJPY still way out of PPP valuations (we still like this cross lower), equity markets put in the 'Leopold lows' late last week (when the cat is out of the bag 'Leopold liquidation', it marks the lows, pretty standard stuff..), DAX makes new all time highs as we start August Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said: “We will not hesitate to conduct further coordinated intervention.” Germany's jobless rate 6.4%, back at 2020 pandemic levels Switzerland’s new energy challenge: keeping cool in a warming climate Leopold Aschenbrenner Breaks Silence After Hedge Fund’s $45B AI Bets Lead To 67% Crash In June [Investor Letter] France's 30-Year Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis, 4.78% Italy moves toward reviving nuclear power after four decades, with next-generation reactors potentially operating by 2033 Japan, US confirm joint yen-buying intervention, signal more action | Reuters Yen intervention: U.S. Scott Bessent, Japan confirm intervention Acyn on X: "Reporter: Why is the U.S. intervening to support the Japanese yen at this time? Trump: Japan’s been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor. https://t.co/MY2uFdDBYA" / X The answer to this question is mathematic. Japan owns $1.143 Trillion in US debt, according to the US Treasury. So if Japan needed to defend its currency without the US buying Yen it would almost certainly sell its US debt. That would lead to a rise in the interest rates. Kommt Vincenz mit blauem Auge davon? – Inside Paradeplatz Air conditioning in Switzerland: a new energy challenge Cyberangriff auf «Verzeichnis wirtschaftlich berechtigter Personen» - Vaterland online Silver outlook: room to run, but not to sprint – The Armchair Trader Fifa abandons $20bn investment plan after global backlash So the sky is not the limit for Gianni.. Leopold Aschenbrenner Breaks Silence After Hedge Fund's $45B AI Bets Lead To 67% Crash In June [Investor Letter] Migrants say hunger and hostility drove them back from Spain's Ceuta to Morocco | Reuters

Not sure the Leopold version the world got to know in July 2026 will get a statue.. FOMC final : So many different takes on the FOMC, I don't actually trade bonds much, and I actually like the maximum-confusion press conference !! >>> it probably means that truly understanding how markets work will matter most from here on... rather than CNBC and other pundits being constantly spoon-fed what to think.... Markets : Tech stocks are crashing, long-term rates are at highest levels since 2008, Inflation IS sticky closer to 3-4%, 2 wars waging, gas prices spiked, and seems suddenly Mr Market hates the new Fed chair (in place thanks to Trump & Bessent..!).., And yet…the S&P500 is 2% from all-time highs ....., 10's UST is back to 4.65% (same old levels.., mind you, given inflation levels, it should be more like 5.7%...if it was allowed to trade there by market forces..) let's all calm down..for now anyway >>>> BoJ unch, warns core infl going above 2% target, #JPY interventions detected 163.75 USDJPY down 400pts rapidly..(NEEDS to go sub 200dma 158 area to really worry the USD bulls).., U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.5% in Q2, once the news came out about Leopold, it was the lows, as if often always the case with these large sudden liquidation scenario, Citadel grabs the whole portfolio, vols crush, markets rally, once the cat if out of the bag, its the lows... and overnight KOSPI goes up 15%.. casino royale !, MSFT rallies to the tune of $500bn market cap in ONE day.. Brexit believers should ask one simple question: where do we have more real control today than we did before? (Thread) India’s Sarvam announces it’s developing a trillion-plus parameter AI model from scratch that’s five times cheaper than global rivals Meta’s Case for Its AI Spending Keeps Getting Weaker. The all-out splurge is running into higher costs, borrowing constraints and investor pushback It is clear to me after speaking to Zelenskyy the next 100 days of the Ukraine war will decide its outcome-Donald Tusk Polish PM Blue Owl’s private credit fundraising falls to slowest pace in three years Trump exploded and lost his temper during a security meeting, shouting and cursing out of frustration over the military options presented to him and the lack of progress toward a deal with Iran, per NBC News. A US official adds "after all this time, there is no unity" inside the administration, which is "facing a strategic defeat without clear policy guidance or a decision about where this is going." An ally close to Trump adds the president is "exasperated" and there was "not a real strategy for how long or what they should do." How Leopold Aschenbrenner, the ‘golden child’ of the AI trade, was laid low All ended up at Citadel of course.. AI-focused hedge fund sells all of its stocks BOJ holds rates at 1%, warns of core inflation above target Oracle Brings Google Gemini Models to Enterprise Customers OpenAI discounts GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra, but not Luna AI: The Wheels Are Coming Off - by George Noble The entire AI trade rests on one company that loses money ON PURPOSE. OpenAI is the load-bearing wall holding up the whole thing, accounting for $17.2 billion of Microsoft's Azure spend and driving 69% of its annual growth, which means if the venture money stops, the counterparty risk cascades straight through Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave. Underneath that sits the accounting trick I've been talking about for months, where hyperscalers stretch data center useful life from 15 years to 25 to bury depreciation and flatter their margins while the GPUs inside go obsolete in three. Banks in talks to lend $15 billion for Anthropic data center backed by Google Yemen's Houthis claim attacking Saudi oil facilities amid escalation Liz Webster on X: "Brexit believers should ask one simple question: where do we have more real control today than we did before? Sovereignty is the practical ability to shape your future, protect your economy and withstand global shocks. On energy, food and trade, Britain has become more https://t.co/8sfdm0XJvl" / X Meta’s Case for Its AI Spending Keeps Getting Weaker - WSJ Blake Morrow on X: "USDJPY just hit the 200dma on intervention https://t.co/559PyedLH3" / X The Great Martis on X: "Japan🇯🇵 is currently executing what may become the most catastrophic monetary policy error in modern financial history. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trapped in a brutal, zero-sum macroeconomic corner: they cannot raise rates aggressively without completely nuking the finances of https://t.co/X6z8kU8mKY" / X

FOMC : Divided Fed holds rates: the central bank left rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote, but chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move, leaving markets guessing and sending yields on 30-year US Treasuries to 5.2%, their highest since 2007, He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42 days. The markets have done quite a bit." >>> AND that is what they wanted, cut forward guidance, bring in a more 2waqy risk for markets, give less of 'one way bet' for market specs... make sense ! the supply of bonds, durations form govt, AND hyper scalers IS an issue which wasn't priced...>>> The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and "market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." America tried to choke off China’s chip access, but instead pushed China to innovate faster. The result is cheaper, more efficient AI, and China may have gained the edge through necessity rather than brute force If Nvidia is so rich why has its credit costs (5y $ CDS) exploded in the past months? GAAP net income of $45.5bn in Q1 and yet? More like 'Mind the Gap!' Markets : The other Korean index, the KOSDAQ, is nearly back to April 2025 lows!..(60% round trip..), Microsoft and Meta split investors, U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2, South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, in FX land CHF continues to grind lower, as expected, not a whole lot happening on USD side, though slightly softer yesterday as long-end sol doff hard! let's hope this doesn't go the way of JPY and JGB's... US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap so KOSPI down 33% this month... More than 360,000 margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi. 62% of those wiped out were reportedly under the age of 35 Nick Timiraos on X: "Some highlights from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's second press conference: He flags the intermeeting move in real and nominal yields (materially higher, top-decile intermeeting move), frames it as the reduction in forward guidance working as designed: "We haven't done much in 42" / X The bond market says ''Warsh has lost it, he is nuts' no guidance etc >>> let's just hope USD and UST don't go the way of JPY and JGB's... clearly...if he looses #duration and the long-end it is going to be a biblical mess !...markets can move very quickly these days.... On the other hand, rightly or wrongly Warsh warned of no forward guidance, so it HAS/HD to mean more of a 2way risk and thus higher VOL... At the end of the day he was Trump's choice, chosen by Bessent, and it's backfiring... Greg Yip : This Warsh contradiction has been nagging at me. At Sintra at the start of the month, he took comfort at the recent decline in bond yields, implying bond markets understood low inflation was on the way. Today, he took comfort at higher bond yields, saying they will deliver low inflation. How can this be: that lower bond yields are reasons to feel good about inflation, but higher bond yields are not a reason to feel bad about it? Without him articulating a monetary and economic framework, these statements make it feel like he's winging it. Jim Bianco on X: "The Warsh press conferences aren't going to work in their current form, and it isn't because he's dodging. The post-meeting press conference is a vehicle for forward guidance. Warsh has stopped it and restated that today at the top he is "steering clear of forecasting," and" / X Trump’s Tariffs Are Sending Some Companies Back to China - The New York Times Drone hits US gas storage tanker at Egypt's Damietta Mediterranean port | The Jerusalem Post Trump: U.S. will hit Iran hard after surprise attack Consumers, AI spending likely supported US economic growth in the second quarter | Reuters Barchart on X: "South Korea's Stock Market has plunged more than 33% this month, on track for its worst month in history, surpassing the October 1997 IMF Crisis (-27%) and the October 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-23%) 📉 📉 https://t.co/CqyoIOAXc0" / X It’s great news for holders of Greggs shares Blurred Orbits: Inside China’s Commercial Space Expansion DoorDash launches in-house drone delivery program after FAA certification | Reuters Got to love progress but this is so stupid EXCLUSIVE: US FTC sues Hims & Hers for sending user health info to Meta, Snap | Reuters

Chipmaker valuations are now higher than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. AI may be revolutionary, but the price you pay still matters (chart available on request) Prices for credit default swaps for corporate debt tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nividia have risen to record highs in recent days according to LSEG data (FT) Iran updates : The U.S.-Iran war-cease-fire-MoU-war-again-de-facto-ceasefire has gone on now for 150 days...Brent fell below $88 after Donald Trump said US and Iran are engaged in talks, Markets : Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge (chips & KOSPI sharply down overnight again, Nvidia has signed leases worth up to $50B for a massive Texas data centre, a previously undisclosed commitment, #US IMM Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade >>> momentum change, CTA's turning sellers!, QQQ struggling, chips rout could well continue (see valuations levels..), KOSPI giving back its crazy up moves from Q2 (what else..), watch yields after Warsh in his 2nd FOMC meeting, long-end7duration/credit etc.. GOLD : BoA's fund manager survey : for the first time in years, fund managers see Gold as undervalued, Most institutional investors still do not hold a strategic long-term allocation to gold.. (chart available on request) The 30-Year US Treasury Yield ended last week at 5.17%, its highest weekly close since July 2007, on to Mr Warsh tomorrow to try to convince the market that 'inflation is low'.. Big Tech credit risk gauges climb as AI investment costs surge Nvidia behind $50B lease on Texas data centre that will use its chips: FT Taiwan Detains Nvidia Employee in Chip Trafficking Probe | Hyperdash News The Next Fed Rate Hike May Be Coming Soon | Seeking Alpha Kevin Warsh’s First Two Months as Fed Chair: What He Changed, and What Could Happen Next - WSJ Trump uses GM stage to launch midterms attack on Democrats | Reuters Wie viele entlässt UBS in nächster Welle? – Inside Paradeplatz Barchart on X: "Tesla $TSLA falls to its most oversold level since March 2025 📉 📉 https://t.co/TyujjSxMct" / X Barchart on X: "CTAs will dump stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week 📉 📉 https://t.co/3OGJwHR9t3" / X Barchart on X: "Speculators are now the most bullish on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade 📈 💵 🤑 https://t.co/jrZG2bryru" / X Gold Outlook: A healthy reset provides a constructive backdrop – The Armchair Trader

Horrific wild fires in France, Spain, Portugal, UK, Sicily and Canada Last Thursday recorded the most commercial flights 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 in one day 153,359 worldwide over 24hrs on Flightradar24, the world's largest public flight-tracking network..... Iran updates : a pause in US-Iran fighting cut the geopolitical risk premium, with Brent sliding around 4-5% towards $92 a barrel as Iran signalled it would halt attacks provided Washington did the same, though the Strait of Hormuz remained contested and Houthi strikes on Saudi installations continued Markets : a lot going this week, possibly a KEY week ahead - major test for markets and sentiment for Q3 (thread), FOMC on Wed (most likely unchanged, about 10bps priced in for a hike), big Techs reporting (MSFT, META, AMZN and APPLE), UST yields a tad softer again going into month-end with 10's 4.63%, SMI also testing new highs, Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumps over 470% in market debut, UBS 'USDCHF' scandal about to get bigger, SpaceX unloved, Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio (private eq tapped out?) Bonds have been in a 6-year long bear market, with long-term treasuries seeing capital losses of -50% off the peak. Even after factoring in interest received and reinvested (but also adjusting for CPI), those who invested in TLT 20 years ago would be flat-to-negative on their investment. UBS Dollar scandal much larger than expected, the cat is out of the bag! UBS-Dollar-Skandal viel grösser als vermutet – Inside Paradeplatz always trying to keep things under the hood...maybe not this time Nic on X: "This week is the most important for markets this year. Here's what's coming & why they matter: Tuesday: - Microsoft earnings: Azure growth + FY2027 capex. If capex exceeds $200B, expect a selloff - just like Alphabet. - Meta earnings: After Zuckerberg said AI agents are" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio. Details include: 1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio 2. In total, the project could cost more than" / X Probably a sign private equity is at least partly tapped out, NVDA has to fund their own bubble.. Morgan Stanley Flags SpaceX Valuation Gap | SPCX - TheStreet HSBC starts SpaceX stock at hold with $115 price target - TheStreet Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumps over 470% in market debut Indonesia bank chief quits, adding uncertainty to struggling economy Singapore tightens monetary policy in surprise move as rising oil prices rekindle inflation risk Kazakhstan Oil Output Falls 21% as CPC Halt More Than Halves Tengiz Production - The Times Of Central Asia Swiss petition calls for six months’ maternity leave - SWI swissinfo.ch Andy Burnham warns NHS will collapse without social care reforms Andy Burnham suggests stricter benefit conditions to cut welfare bill | The Independent Shocking, horrific wild fires Bordeaux Airport evacuates hotel zone as fires move close - Live UK preparing for wildfires similar to France and Spain, minister says US Republicans accuse Canada of wildfire inaction Southern Europe wildfires kill 3 firefighters, force thousands to flee Scotland, Spain and Canada grapple with wildfires | Reuters

The yield on the 30-year Treasury is 5.18%, its highest since April 2006. At that time, the U.S. national debt was $8.35 trillion. Now it’s $39.6 trillion, almost five times as large. The U.S. can’t afford these rates, let alone the much higher rates we'll soon be forced to pay Iran updates : Saudis must recognise Israel for nuclear deal, Trump told Axios he is considering a “massive attack” on Iran and later said the US would use frozen Iranian assets to compensate for any future damage to ships or cargo caused by strikes. Tehran rejected a new US-backed ceasefire proposal, the NYT reported. Brent traded above $100, taking its weekly gain to 14%, Iran sent IRGC commanders, military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment to Yemen this month, according to four sources, in a move that suggests Tehran is seeking to strengthen the Houthis’ ability to threaten Red Sea shipping Markets : US initial jobless claims just came in at the lowest level since 1969 (187K), remember when the UST 10y yield was below 4% at the start of the Iran war? good times...., META borrowing costs (and everyone else..), TSLA, IBM, MAG7 beginning to crack - charts (Thread), REALLY KEY Moment ahead of earnigns next week : S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are testing key levels. Microsoft appears to be resuming downtrend, Tesla has broken sharply lower, Nvidia at risk of turning bearish, Apple still holding its uptrend, not only to they blow their cash, incr risk with HUGE CapEx, Google owns $95bn in SpaceX shares, about5% of the company, WHY?... they no doubt planning / want to build data center on Mars ?.. mindboggloing (just supporting artificially this huge bubbly markets IMHO...) >>> TLT is only 3% away from its lowest price in history!!...in FX land CHF softer (USDCHF mainly, and GBPCHF slowly slowly..), El Nino, tariffs and higher crude prices for longer will not help the FED and other CB's, UST 10's 4.7% (alarm bells when we reach 5%, and TECHS valuations to be reassessed ! ), 10's US/ 4.7% - U.S nightmare, higher JGB yield sand weaker JPY is the other nightmare for Japan.. >>> Markets are now pricing in 2 rate hikes this year. Since the Fed's June meeting, interest rate expectations have skyrocketed The US will impose tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners after finding about 60 economies harmed American workers by failing to prevent forced labor. Donald Trump’s earlier levies were struck down by the Supreme Court. Duties on items from the EU and the UK won’t exceed 10% and products from Switzerland, Japan and South Korea will be broadly capped at 12.5%. Fuel, foods and fertilizers are among imports that will be exempt ECB left rates unchanged as energy prices add to inflation uncertainty Magnificent 7 Cracks Begin to Show as Markets Test Key Support ECB leaves rates unchanged as energy prices add to inflation uncertainty Barchart on X: "JUST IN 🚨: Japan's 2-Year Yield hits highest level in more than 30 years https://t.co/uozkYuFrig" / X Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: France France's 10-Year Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🤯 👀 https://t.co/8u568G3BIa" / X Barchart on X: "S&P 500 $SPY closes below its 50-day moving average by the largest margin since April 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/J5qSi73l6E" / X Barchart on X: "Imagine buying an Alphabet $GOOGL 100-year bond and watching the value plunge 📉 📉 https://t.co/uYkjKzVDLI" / X Historic Yen Slide Poses New Risk to Japan Stocks’ Bull Run - Bloomberg ...Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says authorities will take bold steps to counter moves in the currency market decisively as needed, heard this one before.. US warns against excessive yen volatility, calls for BOJ rate hikes | Reuters Defense boom lifts Indra, Thales and Dassault stocks amid strong earnings U.S. jobless claims drop to 187,000, lowest level of 2026 Kazakhstan slows oil output after drone strikes on export port | Reuters Meta faces higher borrowing costs in latest $12bn data centre financing Tesla stock tumbles 10% after profit miss; full-year capex spend of $25 billion confirmed slowing heading back to earth ! Starship Flight 13 delayed again—why did Space X scrub the launch? New launch date and other details Tesla stock suffers double-digit drop on carmaker’s worst day in years | Tesla | The Guardian Signs of El Niño are already appearing in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Bertha is more proo Volkswagen profit falls, revises down full-year revenue outlook

Iran updates : Oil jumped after the Houthis said they attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the conflict that has already snarled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The US military used a B-1 long-range bomber to strike targets in Iran, US signs deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow kingdom to enrich nuclear fuel Russia forced to import fuel from India as Ukrainian strikes damage refineries. Shipment underlines crisis facing Moscow after drone attacks cut supplies and led to widespread shortages Low Rhine water levels are raising cargo transport costs (some up 50% lately..) and disrupting logistics, with ships often running only partially loaded Markets : Japan's long-term borrowing costs are now at the highest levels this century (JPY languishes near 4 decade lows), Alphabet lifts spending (Google burning through cash for the first time since going public decades ago as it raised its spending forecast for AI infrastructure, blows its cashflows on a bet), TSLA lower after earnings, crude 6 week highs, Brent $96 again!, UST yields higher 10's 4.67% (Chinese Holdings of U.S. Treasuries plunge to lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis), US officials threaten to sanction Chinese AI startups after Moonshot release, the ECB will probably pause from hiking rates further today as it weighs the impact of re-escalation in the war, Nasdaq 100 #QQQ has now closed below its 50-day moving average for 6 straight days, the longest stretch since early April, #GOOG just closed below its 100-day moving average for only the 2nd time since early April, #SILVER chats looking bullish again (GOLD, XPTUSD all been forming a base last 6weeks or so, #URA Trump approves nuclear agreement that may allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium >> The timing of the announcement is, to put it mildly, interesting Jamie Dimon is skeptical the massive AI boom will pay off as quickly as expected. Still, he isn't ruling out wild solutions, saying SpaceX’s data centers in space could actually work Iran war latest: UK withdraws staff from Iran - as Houthis target Saudi oil tankers | World News | Sky News Houthis claim attack on Saudi tankers in Red Sea US signs deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow kingdom to enrich nuclear fuel Low Rhine water levels pose cost and logistics threat to German industry, analysts say | Reuters Google nearly doubles AI infrastructure spending as Q2 tops estimates By Investing.com Another take on Google from Bob Elliott: “Since 1Q24 Google has generated ~30bln in excess earnings in their cloud unit, but has paid ~140bln in capex to get it, not a particularly compelling return, certainly not good enough to blow all their free cashflow on the bet.”!! Trump approves nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia | AP News Russia forced to import fuel from India as Ukrainian strikes damage refineries Jamie Dimon throws caution on the AI frenzy but sees promise in space data centers US threatens sanctions against Chinese AI models over IP theft | TechCrunch Jeffrey Epstein met with Bill Gates and and his charity's staff around 30 times, report finds | US News | Sky News Barchart on X: "Go Time for Silver $SLV? 🚀 https://t.co/eQsRESnwcv" / X Barchart on X: "Chinese Holdings of U.S. Treasuries plunge to lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨 https://t.co/NJwXyjEujL" / X