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SoftBank announced that it has sold its entire stake in Nvidia, for $5.8bn Markets : The U.S. data drought is nearly over (market didn't miss them, Equity on all time highs, no price discovery anymore, pure euphoria..), Softbank cashed in on NVDA, Oracle downgraded, META fionancing questioned, Altman's had touhg time to explain -1.4trn commitment, Corewave drops 20pct, none of it seems to matter right now, ALL ABOUT flush of liquidities...,FED i sincreasingly torn over Dec rate cut (WSJ), U.S. shutdown nears end as Senate passes deal, House readies vote, China claims U.S confiscated $13bn in 'stolen' BTC' >>> newh highs is all the rage (momentum, euphoria, liquidities!), USDJPY/CROSSJPY's in FX higher with it, precious metals roaring, XAGUSD suddenly markets realized its usefulness !! .....BTC struggles relative to precious metals still Geopolitics : Japan lawmakers eye firm response to Chinese envoy's threat to behead PM, Lavrov 'ready' to try to meet Rubio after recetn rift, Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in Gaza since ceasefire, U.S's largest warship arrives neaar Venezuela #XAGUSD Nuclear plants are Silver DEVOURERS / Thread J PMorgan says the next five years could require $5T to $7T in total investment. About $1.5T may come from investment-grade bonds, plus $150B from leveraged finance and up to $40B a year in data-center securitizations. Even then, there’s still roughly a $1.4T funding gap likely filled by private credit and governments UK : While 60% of Britons say they support net zero, the majority say the cost of living is a greater priority than reducing carbon emissions >>> Starmer will fight attemps to reaplce him, allies say..they should focus on governing and having a mission and a big transformative budget..! anyhow, there are NO real successor .. Ministers agree to postpone EU ETS2 to 2028 Natural Gas getting for highest closing price since 2022 The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut Government shutdown nears possible end as key House panel advances Senate-passed funding bill The AI bubble: Is Nvidia artificially engineering chip demand? AI bubble vs backbone How Asia may be an AI value play | Saxo China Claims U.S. Confiscated $13B in ’Stolen’ Bitcoin – Geopolitical Crypto Clash Escalates Trump expected to dine with Wall Street CEOs at White House on Wednesday | Reuters Ukraine war latest: Lavrov 'ready' to meet Rubio after reported breakdown in communication and rift with Putin | World News | Sky News Israel has destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in Gaza since ceasefire Venezuela Orders Military Mobilization As US Aircraft Carriers Near Its Coast - i24NEWS AI’s $5 Trillion Data-Center Boom Will Dip Into Every Debt Market, JPMorgan Says Oil Pushes Higher as Fuel Strength Offsets Weak Crude Signals – Asset News 4U Trump’s 50-year mortgage plan is getting panned. Allies blame this man. - POLITICO Indeed, make zero sense! Edinburgh hit by 250% rise in homeless refugee applications from outside Scotland - Daily Record virtue signalling has real consequences SoftBank cashes out $5.8bn Nvidia stake to fund OpenAI bet Nvidia supplier Foxconn third-quarter profit beats expectations, rising 17% on AI demand Wendy's to close hundreds of US stores in bid to halt falling profit ETS2 delay to 2028: EU ministers approve postponement The Council meeting outcome had little impact on ETS1 prices today. This suggests the result was largely in line with expectations. It could even reflect relief that the member states were able to decide on a 2040 target at all Starmer will fight attempts to replace him, allies say UK government better listen to folks, before their bud budget at the end of the month YouGov on X: "While 60% of Britons say they support net zero, the majority say the cost of living is a greater priority than reducing carbon emissions Among net zero supporters Cost of living is priority: 56% Cutting carbon is priority: 33% Among all Britons Cost of living is priority: 68% https://t.co/y4dFZeYM7R " / X Mark on X: "Silver Expert J. Staiger Reveals a NUCLEAR Silver Secret🏭 Nuclear Plants Are Silver DEVOURERS: ✅ Each large reactor (1600-1800 MW) requires 3-5 MILLION ounces ✅ Silver control rods are irreplaceable - they regulate nuclear reactions ✅ "No button-press magic here" - these https://t.co/O7xesyTUfn " / X Japan lawmakers eye firm response to Chinese envoy's threat to behead PM - The Japan Times UBS Private Banker: Jedes Telefon wird aufgezeichnet – Inside Paradeplatz The CIA ‘Can Neither Confirm Nor Deny’ It Has Documents on Satoshi Nakamoto

Markets : Goldilocks scenarios returned  to Wall Street as the spectre of deeper disruptions from the government shutdown started to clear, bypartisan deal (more debt) , l ower interest rates (SOFR drop in 10days pretty impressive, ALL about liquidities) , Oz consumer conf way up, Data Centers in Nvidia’s hometown stand empty awaiting power, Michael Burry and few others talks a lot about 'AI overstated earnings' thus hiding future losses etc (Thread), Scott Galloway said he suspects many of these deals are “jazz hands,” an expression for a lot of flash to disguise a lack of substance, or all sizzle and no steak etc, another ''NVIDIA is literally subsidizing / “paying” customers to buy their hardware - and Wall Street is treating it as revenue'' >>> bottom line 'when' the music stops, it 'will be a spectacular fall-out and reset, I'm waiting, usual FX risk on reaction, CROSSJPY, USDJPY higher, equity markets right back to highs, let's see of this 'Senate deal' is not a ''buy the rumour and sell the fact'', no-one will get $2000 check in the post.. don't count on it, GOLD, precious metals, easily back up #monetization !.. Trade : Trump tacos' on Swiss tariffs, same old same old, a lot of shouting, threats and eventuel TACO action Geopolitics : Israel and Iran on the brink of a new war — The New York Times, Fed's Miran said 50 bp cut appropriate for December and 25 bp cut at a minimum Shock COP Dirty Secret: at least half the Balsa Wood in wind turbine blades is illegally logged in Amazonian rainforests #windpower Warren Buffett will stop writing the firm’s annual letters and speaking at its meetings, going quiet ! Switzerland is said to be close to securing an improved 15% tariff on its exports to the US. Levies on Indian goods will be lowered “at some point,” Trump said. And China plans to fast track approvals of rare earths to US companies with no military ties Is THIS time actually different ? AI potential bubble, this is well explained, NVDIA is literally subsidizing / paying customers to buy their hardware and WS is treating is as revenue.. is this sustainable, or even profitable long-term ? 15   minutes video, well worth a watch imho: It's Happening Again and Nobody’s Talking About It OR is it nowhere near the top,  sustained compute scarcity and pricing power still driving Scott Galloway warns of ‘nowhere to hide’ in markets if the OpenAI story unravels The big short is trying to prick this bubble.. not going to be easy, but fair to say 'earnings fraud' has been mentioned in few places, last few months, that all said, as we saw last few days... it's hard too hard for the bears, ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITIES, SOFR...    ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry exposes big tech’s ‘common frauds of the modern era’ A $2,000 check from Trump tariffs? Don't count on it Wall Street Journal dismisses Trump $2K dividend idea: ‘Hail Mary pass’ Trump backs Senate deal that would end government shutdown Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed ALL about liquidities.. US Airlines Cancel 2,100 Flights as Shutdown Talks Advance Australia’s consumer sentiment soars 12.8% on economic outlook - The Business Times Gold and silver break higher as US debt concerns eclipse shutdown relief | Saxo Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power Meanwhile, rest of the world gets richer and richer, have you ordered yours ? FLIBS 2025 review: Industry reports indicate "massive demand for yachts above 60 metres" Another Israel-Iran war increasingly seen as just a matter of time, NYT reports | The Times of Israel Warren Buffett Will No Longer Write Annual Letter, Speak At Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting | The WealthAdvisor Shock COP Dirty Secret: At Least Half the Balsa Wood in Wind Turbine Blades is Illegally Logged in Amazonian Rainforests – The Daily Sceptic And this - pure madness -lies Drax still burning 250-year-old trees sourced from forests in Canada, experts say | Drax | The Guardian Merryn Talks Money - Podcast - Apple Podcasts AI bubble? Well of course it is. Today's market is all about the story. One day it will be about the price again.. so dance near the door and hang on to gold - nice podcast for a car jouney

A deal on no real concession from Reps and DEMs cave in on Obamacare deal.. Markets : markets loving it, rally mood since Friday rumours of a deal reopening U.S Govt, crude steadies, NVDA isn't going back to China, Copper is set for a historic shortage next year >>> Trump WANTED the shut down untill Rep lost ground in Tuesday's elections last week, polls plummeted, news of food lines grew fast, suddenly military uniforms flanked food banks...he lost and its pretty clear ...and classic Trump, all of a sudden , the shut down ends with NO consessions...and DEM's sell out as no Obamacare deal in sight either Bernie Sanders: "What this Senate is about to do is make a horrific situation even worse. So let's be clear what this vote is about. If this vote succeeds, over 20 million Americans are gonna see at least a doubling in their premiums in the ACA, so so the rich can get a trillion-dollar tax cut" Geopolitics : Putin answers Maduro’s call to help Venezuela resist Trump, Ukraine war latest: Russia launches 'one of the largest' attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since start of war, Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns. John Williams suggests poorer Americans’ mounting problems could be a factor in whether the central bank cuts rates next month. (FT) Ray Dalio argues we already #monetisation, fiscal deficits + debt + central bank backstoppin issuance / Thread Trump administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage to boost housing affordability >>> NOT that attractive at all !....the longer the duration, the more it is like renting and you landlord is the bank, worse you are left wiht all the running costs..! >>> It's a trillion-dollar bailout for Wall Street dressed up as a tax cut Iran faces 'permanent state of crisis' as time wanes and sanction pressure grows We now live in a society where more debt is the “solution” to everything Swiss finance shrinks as regulators tighten grip on prized sector. Stricter post-Credit Suisse oversight sets nation on different path to US in particular. (FT) Oil Steadies As Traders Weigh Up Surplus Concerns And Sanctions Senate returns to work as government shutdown nears longest in US history over Obamacare fight Trump administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage to boost housing affordability US after 40 days of shutdown: Flight uncertainty rises, supply woes deepens and political costs escalate – Firstpost Trump Booed at NFL Game After Demanding Stadium Is Named In His Honor Hungry in Uniform: the untold struggle of military food insecurity Flight cancellations stack up as FAA throttling begins Ray Dalio on X: "Stimulating Into a Bubble " / X Iran faces 'permanent state of crisis' as time wanes and sanction pressure grows The Kobeissi Letter on X: "We now live in a society where more debt is the “solution” to everything: Can’t afford basic necessities? Take on more debt. Can’t pay your tuition? Take on more debt. Can’t afford to buy a home? Take on more debt. Can’t keep inflation under control? Take on more debt. Can’t" / X Nvidia won't sell Blackwell AI chips to China, CEO Jensen Huang says What a shamble they have been Top BBC bosses step down following criticism of edited Trump speech Lloyds Bank aims to be UK’s biggest private landlord by 2025 They all as bad as each other by the look of thigns Reform leader branded “captain chaos” as Kent fire authority in disarray | Fire Brigades Union Coop overtakes Migros in battle of Swiss food retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Copper is set for a historic shortage next year: The copper market is expected to face its most severe deficit in 22 years in 2026, at -590,000 tons, according to Morgan Stanley. The deficit is expected to widen by 2029 to a whopping -1.1 million tons. This comes as global https://t.co/j8CZ7Fb4qe " / X Putin answers Maduro’s call to help Venezuela resist Trump Ukraine war latest: Russia launches 'one of the largest' attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since start of war Israel confirms remains returned are officer Goldin killed in 2014 Gaza war

The AI run has been so strong that investors have become hypersensitive to ANY volatility - beware #VIX #NDX #time-fora-hedging-trade Markets : BoE kept rates steady at 4% (5-4 split), U.S Job cuts in October hit highest level in decades (-153K-this is very weak.. ), Americans are drowning in debt (Thread), FAA mandated cuts start today effecting up to 1,800 flights, New House Prices have dropped below Existing Homes for the first time in history : ''when builders blink first''. .(chart availlable), Goldman Sachs warns: 300 million jobs to be lost to AI , US govt shut down (day 37), Supreme court ruling could force US to repay $1trn - eventually, Jensen saying china to beat US on AI.. >>> a LOT of pretty real negative stuff this week....unwind of owned, crowded positions going on underneath, momo stocks, thematic themes hit hard, appears to be calm on the surface (main indices), but some pretty punchy sell-off's in single stocks, which don't look like a soft landing.. Geopolitics : Lavrov falls out of favour with Putin after failed Trump meeting, French MPs vote to cancel a tax that brings 5.4bn a year - except that's not what they wanted to do (shocking..) Trade : Trump for the first time acknowledged that the tariffs are costing the US Consumer -blimey MAGA is over Sam Altman in 2023: “It’s hopeless to compete with us..... .” OpenAI in 2025: We’d like a government loan guarantee, please (parly denied..but) >>>> “OpenAI is a nonprofit that now wants a federal backstop guarantee for all new capex investments but also wants to IPO at $1Tn next year for its exclusive shareholders”....any anyone wonders why folks may shift to the left..he denied the need for support - see below, but in reality Altman said "Yeah, I'm making billions building up a bubble, but that's okay, because when it bursts, the American taxpayers will bail me out, so I can keep making more billions."... up to you voters.. The Real Battle isn’t cver Tariffs tt’s over control/Thread Secret GOP Cabal With Vance and Thiel Plots Eternal MAGA Rule Ray Dalio : When the Bill Comes Due: Debt, Denial, and the Fall of Empires >> History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods Trump to the Novo Nordisk CEO: "Maybe you should give us a piece of the company like I've been asking for."..grifters.. Job cuts in October hit highest level in decades, report shows https://x.com/PolemicTMM/status/1986380274511327449      this is an excellent recap of the parallels between 2008 vs today - highly recommend spending few minutes on it, facts, and backed-up by press articles...NVDA reports on 19th Nov, maybe mr market waits till then to make up its mind.. Goldman Sachs warns: 300 million jobs to be lost to AI Altman's mea culpa - what a bizarre clown show Sam Altman on X: "I would like to clarify a few things. First, the obvious one: we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters. We believe that governments should not pick winners or losers, and that taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad business decisions or" / X Trump, in shift, acknowledges Americans are paying "something" for tariffs | Reuters FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown Elon Musk could become world's first trillionaire after Tesla pay deal: Here's how Beyond ridiculous world Huge "confusion" in the Assembly: deputies vote on an amendment on the abolition of a tax that brings in 5.4 billion euros per year (but which was not supposed to pass) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The U.S. Now Has: 1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt 2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans 5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10" / X Secret GOP Cabal With Vance and Thiel Plots Eternal MAGA Rule Lavrov falls out of favour with Putin after failed Trump meeting Still could be wild... Supreme court decison, contested and so on Donald Trump enters his lame duck era - POLITICO True ponzi like... (leverage the balancesheet on 1 asset) Metaplanet Borrows $100 Million Against Its Bitcoin Holdings—To Buy More BTC - Decrypt >>>>> So Metaplanet owns like 31K BTC at about 108K average..underwater by 5%..most risk managers would say reduce risk, nope, lets raise $100mio in new debt and buy soemmore.. >>> if bitcoin treasuries get wrecked on a 5% move, what happens if we go down 25% ?... I mean.... StockMarket.News on X: "Sam Altman in 2023: “It’s hopeless to compete with us.” OpenAI in 2025: We’d like a government loan guarantee, please. https://t.co/dIPl9sJWv6 " / X EndGame Macro on X: "The Real Battle Isn’t Over Tariffs It’s Over Control If Trump’s tariffs are ruled illegal, the real danger is losing speed and leverage in a world where both matter. Tariffs under emergency powers (like IEEPA) give the president the ability to hit fast, send a signal, and shift" / X Tech giants warn Reeves of IPO 'flight risk' over budget | Money News | Sky News Ray Dalio on X: "Stimulating Into a Bubble " / X History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources 5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

Yesterday's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize/Thread, AND when big private companies (OpenAI) start asking for public funds to guaranty its debt, its a clear sign that this bubble will soon POP. .. and so of course Jensen Huang had to say this... 'China is going to win the AI Race,' FT Reports >>> this surely can't happen, the US surely cannot guaranty OpenAI's debt....i mean surely not... Markets : A new jobs report shows modest growth — but with white-collar layoffs accelerating, AI bubble concerns grow (either way - the outcome of the concerbes are huge..can't ignore 'a sudden shift in sentiment-momentum..), Brazil’s central bank held its key interest rate unchanged at 15% for a third meeting as expected, markets look tired >>> AI bubble warnings signs growing, if/when it pops it'll be big, sell NDX rallies to hedge some, FX hardly interested (for choice, sell some crossjpy's), buy some VIX as another potential hedge into year-end Trade : Opponents of Trump's tariffs had a good day at the Supreme Court Geopolitics : GOP lawmakers rally behind Trump's Venezuela strikes as critics question legality Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its exposure to data centers . It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers Per Apollo: Earnings expectations have increased for the Magnificent Seven and declined for every other company in S&P 493! “Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Tuesday he could be forced to close some of the national airspace if the shutdown extends another week ... Freightwaves CEO: We should be worried. Certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. Year-over-year trucking volumes is down 17%. When you look at the industrial sectors, we're down 30% year-over-year, which is Great Financial Crisis levels of concern Andy Constan on X: "Assuming 10 year debt and 150bp of lower financing a 1tn bond guarantee would be worth 12% of proceeds. Or 120BN On a 1TN equity market valuation that would be a 12% stake in the company. As a tax payer I would be happy to guarantee OpenAI debt of 1TN for a free stake of 12% https://t.co/EpL66ICnia " / X This IS nuts ! these guys, Musk, Karp, Thiel..etc want total control, dominate the world, politics, you name it, AND now want US government backing... US orders 10% flights cut at major US airports due to shutdown | Reuters Trump tariff opponents had a good day at the Supreme Court Stock market selloff goes global as AI bubble concerns grow ADP report shows jobs growth as white-collar layoffs accelerate Lisa Abramowicz: Deutsche Bank examines AI stock hedging strategies Trump Says He Met Swiss Leaders, Orders More Trade Talks - SWI swissinfo.ch GOP lawmakers rally behind Trump's Venezuela strikes as critics question legality quel shitt show Crime network behind UK mini-marts is enabling migrants to work illegally If that's ok, and clearly it is so, then reverse Brexit - simple Keir Starmer issues Budget warning - Brexit and austerity impact 'worse than feared' - The Mirror McDonald's earnings show low-income customers struggling Jake Sherman on X: "HERE is what trump just told senate republicans about last night. Trump thinks last night was bad for republicans and thinks the government has to open “immediately.” And he seems to believes the bad election results are directly related to the now 36-day shutdown. https://t.co/5YU9ngUgla " / X >>> Trump can lie about many things, in fact just about everything from Epstein to tariffs, or crypto grift, govt shutdown, you name it, he's got ocntrol ish on this, but he cannot lie toamericans about inflation 'falling'.... pretty sure they don't see it day to day this way.. The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Today's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize: If Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, the US Treasury will face a MASSIVE refund liability. This potential liability is expected to be up to $1 TRILLION to importers. Why? Because, if the Supreme Court" / X

#MSFT Satya just told you the entire AI trade thesis is wrong and nobody is repricing anything.... Microsoft has racks of H100s collecting dust because they literally cannot plug them in. Not "won't," cannot..., The AI Chip Market — Demand and Supply, fully controlled by NVIDIA / Thread, Atlman said 'enough' to questions about revenues .., and now PLTR's Karp having a go at short sellers ..his company is possibly the most overvalued of all times on 350 P/E or something, Rigetti CEO comments below.., KOSPI chopped.. >>>> ''all worrying signs for the bulls, ''when the music stops in a crowded market'' Markets :   The total value of the US stock market is now ~245% of the country’s GDP – far above the 100% level that Warren Buffett considers a sign of a market bubble, Trump says SNAP benefits will only be given when the US government is reopened, "and not before." Over 40 million Americans rely on SNAP with $8.2 BILLION per month in benefits now frozen. >>> #liquidity scarcity, higher USD, crowded ''short $$ trade'' squeezing and hurting... as margin calls increase, banking stress, collateral vs liquidity shortage in REPO (chart available - please ask), Mamdani wins, another headache for Trump, Softbank suddenly down 20% in a couple of days, crypto having a pretty bad time too..owned positions, momo stocks, thematic stories (quantum etc) a decent liquidation mode.. Trade : EU leaders skip Latin Amrican summit to avoid upsetting Trump!, All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility/Thread Scott Bessent is now making the case why NYC will receive less funding if Mamdani is elected because, according to him, the state will lose people to red states Bitcoin officially enters bear market territory, now down -20% since its record high seen on October 6th, Ether falls below $3,400 and officially erases all 2025 gains TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: The Democrats are far more likely to win the Midterms, and the next Presidential Election, if we don’t do the Termination of the Filibuster (The Nuclear Option!), because it will be impossible for Republicans to get Common Sense Policies done with these Crazed Democrat Lunatics being able to block everything by withholding their votes. FOR THREE YEARS, NOTHING WILL BE PASSED, AND REPUBLICANS WILL BE BLAMED. Elections, including the Midterms, will be rightfully brutal. If we do terminate the Filibuster, we will get EVERYTHING approved, like no Congress in History. We will have FAIR, FREE, and SAFE Elections, No Men in Women’s Sports or Transgender for Everybody, Strong Borders, Major Tax and Energy Cuts, and will secure our Second Amendment, which the Democrats will also terminate, IMMEDIATELY. Zohran Mamdani wins NYC mayoral race - POLITICO This is so weak from Europe... hard to beleive... Top EU Leaders Skip EU-Latin American Summit in Colombia to Avoid Irking Trump - Bloomberg Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley CEOs predict big stock market correction The government shutdown is about to make travel a nightmare, Duffy warns Alex Karp slams short-seller bets against Palantir as 'egregious': 'I am going to be dancing around when it's proven wrong' Quantum computing & AI will be key themes of 2026: Rigetti CEO CEO is openly saying there will be no meaningful commercial revenue for the better part of a decade >>>>> The reason the CEO can be honest is he sold all of his shares back in May!... beware !! Sam Altman says ‘enough’ to questions about OpenAI’s revenue | TechCrunch U.S. utilities spend big as AI boom drives power demand higher Norway wealth fund to oppose Musk's $1 trillion Tesla pay deal | Reuters Kakashii on X: "The AI Chip Market — Demand and Supply, Fully Controlled by NVIDIA Few really understand this, but let me break down in one post, how the whole demand and supply cycle works when both are controlled by one company: NVIDIA. Jensen knows exactly what Wall Street expects from him https://t.co/hIH8BP78YS " / X Aakash Gupta on X: "Satya just told you the entire AI trade thesis is wrong and nobody is repricing anything. Microsoft has racks of H100s collecting dust because they literally cannot plug them in. Not "won't," cannot. The power infrastructure does not exist. Which means every analyst model that's" / X UBS Warns of Systemic Risk From Weak US Insurance Regulation (1) Rise in Repo Rates Matters to Liquidity & Collateral Values - In Everything Exposed: How Bill Gates' Connections to Pedophile Jeffrey Epstein Landed Tech Billionaire at the Center of a Deep State Cover-up Conspiracy Theory Involving Sick Pedo Lyn Alden on X: "All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility. Both times, a rapid TGA refill was a big catalyst. I have an explainer thread on the 2019 repo spike below, from back when it was happening. https://t.co/F9oy9xu98x " / X

Markets : Fed's Daly 'keep open mind' about Dec rate cut, Scott Bessent says parts of the economy are 'in recession' — but blames the Fed, RBA a little dovish, Macron is officially the most unpopular French President in 70years >>> another wave of circular Ai deals yesterday wasn't not enough to make new highs.., in facts things beginning to break below, chart wise (momentum has been KEY on the way up - so beware if it turns- ..will need a few down days to confirm..VIX key as usual, and the hot ''momo' sectors, AI, metals,rare earth, etc...) , USD strength and a bit of CROSSJPY downside now possible in FX land, crypto down too near KEY supports, all looking like a decent RISK-off scenario ahead of us... even Michael burry is back with a PLTR and NVDA short (Thread - keeps everyone entertained..) Trade : China accuses Netherlands of not working to fix Nexperia dispute, Geopolitics : Trump says Maduro’s days leading Venezuela are numbered, Ukraine says it halted Russian advance north of Pokrovsk, Japan PM Takaichi vows to make robust economy via spending in 17 strategic areas GS's Solomon warned of a 10-20% drawdown in eq markets in the next 12-24 months HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery warns that revenue profiles do not justify massive AI investments . Both Elhedery and General Atlantic’s William Ford stress that productivity benefits and revenue gains will take several years UK's budget talks shortly, preparing groud for decent tax rises! Why the Goldman Sachs CEO isn’t buying the AI jobs freakout Daly says Fed should ‘keep an open mind’ about December rate cut Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA China accuses Netherlands of not working to fix Nexperia dispute | Reuters Japan PM Takaichi vows to make robust economy via spending in 17 strategic areas - The Mainichi Chancellor Rachel Reeves to set out priorities in pre-Budget speech - live updates - BBC News Emmanuel Macron most unpopular French president in 70 years Scott Bessent says parts of the economy are 'in recession' Trump says Nvidia can't sell China its best AI chips Liechtenstein’s ‘zombie trust’ woes spread to Caribbean Trump says Maduro’s days leading Venezuela are numbered — as US amasses largest Caribbean military presence in 35 years Ukraine war latest: Ukraine says it halted Russian advance north of Pokrovsk LIVE: Joy in Gaza as Palestinians freed by Israel reunite with families | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Inside the AI Bubble: How OpenAI & Nvidia are Weaving a Web of Circular Deals – Outlook Business Palantir (PLTR) Q3 earnings 2025 Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager immortalised in the 2015 movie The Big Short, on Monday disclosed a $912mn bet against Palantir’s shares, using derivatives known as options. Stocktwits on X: "BREAKING: The Big Short is back… Michael Burry’s 13F shows he’s betting heavily against AI favorites 66% of his entire portfolio is in $PLTR puts, and another 13.5% is in Nvidia $NVDA puts That’s nearly 80% of Scion Asset Management betting against two of the biggest names in https://t.co/GZAGASQELK " / X

Senate ends Trump’s Global Tariff policy in rare bipartisan vote Markets : crude up a bit as OPEC+ pauses output hike, USD a little firmer overall (beginning to break a few resistances... vs euro, gbp, jpy etc), Equity indicices holding up, although as usual a few area of weakness underneath, credit issues popping out, Geopolitics : is Trump preparing to go to war with Venezuela ?, no tomahawks for UKR for now Swiss bank UBS files application for US banking licence, let them..? Why Warren Buffett now holds more cash than the Fed China will effectively suspend implementation of additional export controls on rare earth metals and terminate investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain #AMZN Amazon's ~15bln y/y rise in AWS income looks pretty compelling until you realize that their current capex run rate is 140bln annualized. This has got to go parabolic for that rate of investment to make any sense/Thread Senate vote on nullifying tariffs on Canada demonstrates opposition to Trump's trade policy Fed’s Waller advocates for December rate cut despite government shutdown By Investing.com Gold Steady Around $4,000 After China Ends Some Tax Incentives Trump’s Supporters Should Be Careful What They Wish For by Simon Johnson & Stan A. Veuger - Project Syndicate Why Warren Buffett Now Holds More Cash Than the Fed — What That Signals About the Market Not good .. https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3331284/new-world-development-offers-us19-billion-debt-swap-boost-liquidity Trump says China, other countries can't have Nvidia's top AI chips | Reuters Oil Prices Gain After OPEC+ Pauses Output Hike — Analyst Says Focus Shifts To Price Stability Is Trump preparing to go to war with Venezuela? Taiwan-US Relations - TaiwanPlus Ukraine war latest: Trump won’t sell Tomahawks to Kyiv for now Swiss bank UBS files application for US banking licence - SWI swissinfo.ch UK funds industry calls on Chancellor to rebuild public trust in markets – The Armchair Trader Rachel Reeves considering ‘exit tax’ on wealthy Brits fleeing the UK Federal judges order Trump admin to keep food stamp payments going Four U.S. airlines are calling for an end to the shutdown (4) Bob Elliott on X: "Amazon's ~15bln y/y rise in AWS income looks pretty compelling until you realize that their current capex run rate is 140bln annualized. This has got to go parabolic for that rate of investment to make any sense. h/t @charliebilello for the chart. https://t.co/CJK8SLDcoF " / X

FOMC . .at one point Powell said policy is “restrictive,” the next that the Fed is “taking a step back.”...so which is it ?..seems confusion is the new policy.. >>>> The Fed is cutting, ending QT, quietly buying T-bills, all of which are first steps towards stealth yield-curve control #YCC it's not a CB's job to worry about duration..! might get harder for markets to 'trust the FED and what they up to''.. Markets : Meta sold $30 billion in bonds ('' as AI expansion costs rack up''), Trump Xi agree to 1year truce, ECB holds as expected, Fed Chair pick should be known by Christmas, Bessent says , China manuf PMI in Oct down to 49.0 (lower than exp 49.6), BlackRock stung by loans to Business accused of 'Breathtaking' fraud >>> Bonds sold-off this week ( 10's UST 4.11 again , ''life below 4% not going to happen #supply and FED hesitant for Dec and it was all priced in..), pretty awful equity markets 'underneath', credit issues popping out, MAG7 mixed and clearly 'expansion costs racking up'' , and USdollar slightly firmer, not by much but perhaps a light 'risk-off' sign for next few days-weeks, going into year-end markets are all 'bulled up and full on the Ai trade'.. it's worked like a dream this year, beware of any potential 'momentum' reversal into year-end Geopolitics : Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin Budapest summit axed following Moscow memo. Russian foreign ministry’s maximalist demands for ending Ukraine war led US to scrap planned meeting, Trade : China emerges as US ‘peer rival’ at Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit. Beijing shows it can force Washington to compromise on trade issues. (FT) US and India sign 10-year defense pact to share info, cooperate on tech The result of the Dutch general election remained too close to call on Thursday afternoon, with the far-right PVV and the liberal D66 tied on 26 seats as the last results trickled in Study: news deprivation is a threat to Swiss democracy Trump and Xi, Hoping to Ease Trade War, Agree to 1-Year Truce - The New York Times Leaders of U.S. and China meet amid trade war : State of the World from NPR : NPR China's Xi urges Asian nations to keep supply chains stable, work together during ‘turbulent’ times US inks 10-year defence pact with India, says Hegseth ECB keeps interest rate at 2% as growth holds up against trade tension Japan finance minister warns against forex volatility after yen plunge | Reuters Bessent lists Fed chair finalists, Trump says decision by end of year Trump-Putin Meet Scrapped - What Happened At The 'Tense Call' Between The Two? | World News - Times Now China manufacturing slump deepens to 6-month low in October, as PMI misses estimates Dow Jones Top Financial Services Headlines at 11 AM ET: BlackRock Stung by Loans to Business Accused of 'Breathtaking' Fraud | The ... | Morningstar >>>> this is 4th private credit collapse in two months, and this one shows exactly why institutional lenders shouldn't be trusted to verify their own collateral Chipotle Stock Craters After Alarming Q3: Analysts Slash Price Targets On Fading Consumer Appetite >>> Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of cash, or perhaps both, certainly another big warning, shares down 45pct YTD.. Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough - WSJ Meta to raise $30 billion in its biggest bond sale as AI expansion costs rack up - The HinduBusinessLine Meta stock tumbles on AI spending despite solid Q3 earnings beat Apple posts record revenue despite slowing iPhone growth Amazon Q3 earnings beat expectations as AWS growth hits 20% Microsoft earnings AI capex is getting quite expensive EndGame Macro on X: "Bessent’s Quiet Warning: Let Japan Hike Before the Market Forces It Bessent’s message to Japan is about the global plumbing. When he urges Japan to give the BOJ room to raise rates, he’s really trying to steady three things: the yen, global funding markets, and the Treasury’s https://t.co/5tR4IPqn9c " / X Ukraine Cuts Ties With Cuba Over Russian War Involvement Repression in Iran worsened after 12-day war with Israel in June, UN probe finds | The Times of Israel US Deploys B-1B Bombers Near Venezuela as USS Gerald Ford Closes In - Newsweek French Police Hunting Stolen Louvre Jewels Arrest More Suspects Dut D66 or PVV as biggest? Final Dutch election votes trickle in - DutchNews.nl Study: news deprivation is a threat to Swiss democracy - SWI swissinfo.ch

War-like chaos in Rio, 2500 cops storm favelas Powell’s December warning exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed, FOMC Statement: Reading Between the Lines (Thread) Markets : FED cuts, as expected and priced, BoJ unch in a 7-2 vote (2 voted to hike), Trump said he had an “amazing” meeting with Xi Jinping in Busan. The US reduced its tariffs on fentanyl to 10% immediately and reached a deal on soybeans and agriculture, Meta (-7%)  and Microsoft (-3%) fell postmarket on cost woes, while Alphabet (+8%)  rallied after a sales beat. Apple and Amazon are due postmarket, Geopolitics : Trump shakes Xi’s hand for 27 seconds and reduces tariffs (taxes on Americans) from 57% to 47% in exchange for China “promising to work hard on fentanyl,” and reverting their limits on rare earths to where they were before a Trump screwed everything up. In other words the meeting was a flop, Rio, Venezuela, Gaza and Ukraine still in the headlines Calpers plans to vote against Elon Musk’s $1 trillion compensation agreement at Tesla Handshakes and whispers: Trump and Xi's meeting…in 73 seconds Live updates: Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping in South Korea Powell’s December Warning Exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed The Fed just cut interest rates despite data blackout Is there really a 'rare-earth crisis' between China and Europe?: Global Times editorial - Global Times Israel strikes Gaza after accusing Hamas of ceasefire violations US could fire Tomahawks into Venezuela: Former ambassador - Newsweek Emergency power outages across Ukraine as Russia launches mass missile, drone attack At least 132 killed in Rio police raid, officials say Bank of Japan holds rates in first policy meeting under Takaichi Gold slump holds as Fed Chair douses hopes for December rate cut Oil steadies as traders set sights on US-China summit and OPEC+ - CNBC TV18 Microsoft tops Q1 earnings estimates, boosted by cloud revenue Meta takes a $16 billion tax hit and earnings miss by wide margin - MarketWatch Nvidia market cap crosses $5 trillion as AI boom powers the stock Dutch centrist liberal Jetten neck and neck in close finish with populist Wilders CalPERS Joins Backlash Against Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Pay Plan — Retail Turns Bearish Ahead Of Shareholder Vote EndGame Macro on X: "FOMC Statement: Reading Between the Lines The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% and said it will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. On paper, they framed it as a balanced decision , inflation’s still “somewhat elevated,” but job growth has" / X

China officially announces to make Petroyaun deals with Arab states in currencies instead of Petro-dollar agreements (it's a trend) Markets : NVDA 3% away from $5trn valuation, crude lower again (glut ocncerns resurface), GOLD correction (trade truce maybe, it was way too overbought..decent bounce already, Silver up 5% off lows..), Trump and his social network 'prediction trading' (also known as insider trading..), OpenAi is now 'for profit' - surprising anyone believed him on the inset of the non profit set-up.., BoC and FOMC tonight (no data, so FED 'on hold', CPI bakes the next 25bp cut, no new guidance likely), BoJ tom early (wide range of risk-expectations, guidance Dec hike? only 50% priced in, and ECB meeting too (on hold), Ozzie inflation much hgiher #AUD Trade : U.S and South Korea to signdeal to strengthen Ai cooperation, US excludes Rosneft Germany from Russia sanctions, German minister says, Trump, Xi to Discuss Lowering China Tariffs for Fentanyl Crackdown, Geopolitics : Polish jets intercept Russian spy plane over Baltic Sea, Israeli planes strike Gaza City after Netanyahu orders 'powerful attacks' About that Trump deal with Japan on rare earth : Japan does not currently produce rare earth elements commercially, but it has found vast deep-sea deposits and is preparing to begin experimental extraction in 2026. Japan is currently the world's largest importer of rare earths, but these new potential domestic sources could significantly reduce its reliance on other countries, particularly China, for these critical materials Saudi Arabia ‘open’ to using China yuan for oil sales: report Trump and Xi set for tense South Korea meeting — Key issues from tariffs, Rare Earths to Taiwan explained Trump says new Fed chair decision might be made by year-end Israeli planes strike Gaza City after Netanyahu orders 'powerful attacks' - CNA Ukraine-Russia war latest: Polish jets intercept Russian spy plane over Baltic Sea Australia’s inflation tops forecasts at 3.2%, highest in over a year Nvidia pumps $1 billion into Nokia, announces 6G partnership S. Korea, US to sign deal to strengthen AI cooperation: report - The Korea Herald Amazon layoffs to hit 14,000 corporate jobs in big AI push UBS CEO says strategic investments are paying off as profit soars EU Car sector.. Mercedes reports plunge in Q3 operating profit, hit by job cuts | Reuters Uber to launch 100,000 robotaxis with Nvidia from 2027 - Nikkei Asia Oil steadies after monthly drop with glut, geopolitics in focus - CNBC TV18 Gold Plunges Below $4,000 as US-China Truce Erodes Haven Demand Donald Trump's Truth Social Bets on Prediction Markets ChatGPT maker OpenAI restructures as a for-profit company 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth | Bill Gates So instead of lowering the actual cost of energy...he taxes everyone more to subsidise the few who can’t afford the prices his own policies are creating ...hum.. --Dear Mr Clarkson, many brits are counting on you--.. '' https://x.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1983130689890295942

Market : BoJ likely to tighten as RoW eases #JPY (new PM, risk JPN pension funds #rapatriate money and #JPY no longer cheap funding fuelling NIKKEI up), Bessent US stressed role of Monetary Policy in anchoring inflation, Exchange Rate stability in meeting with Japan FinMin, AMZN to cut 30'000 corp workers (just the beginning of AI impact..) , solving #rareearths problem won't happen overnight, it'll take years, but smoothing words form Trump is enough these days, GOLD- precious metals ''healthy correction from way overboiguth levels', FXland zz's really, bonds super quiet zzz's really, all helping 'risk in general' Trade : The Financial Times (FT) has finally admitted reality. It is obvious that “controlled decoupling” is going to happen between the U.S. empire and the BRICS+, Russia’s Lukoil to sell off foreign assets as US sanctions bite Ex-UBS trader Tom Hayes sues bank for $400M after conviction overturned, a very tidy amount, but management threw him under the bus with only one purpose for doing it ! The Fed’s total assets as a % of nominal GDP have fallen to 21.6%, the lowest since Q4 2020 Argentina election results deliver Trump-backed President Javier Milei a bolstered mandate Interesting numbers on Nexperia : their chips are used by half Europe's auto companies, 86% of medical device companies and almost all (95%) the mechanical engineering sector/Thread The Latest: Trump meets with Japan’s newly elected, first female leader, Sanae Takaichi US Treasury's Bessent calls for 'sound' monetary policy in Japan | Reuters Japan’s New Economic Minister Highlights Pros and Cons of Weak Yen Amid Rising Costs - EconoTimes Argentina election results deliver Trump-backed President Javier Milei a bolstered mandate - CBS News Russia’s Lukoil to sell off foreign assets as US sanctions bite – POLITICO Updates: Israel threatens Gaza war restart as Hamas searches for bodies | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump warns Putin ‘we have a nuclear submarine off your shore’ after cruise missile test Venezuela suspends energy agreements with Trinidad after US warship arrives at island nation Nvidia readies $1.2 billion Germany data center with Deutsche Telekom - Cryptopolitan Big Tech’s make-or-break week: AI spending meets the moment of truth | Saxo Google and NextEra to Restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant to Power AI Era Ex-UBS trader Tom Hayes sues bank for $400M after conviction overturned - InvestmentNews UBS Moves to Go Nationwide in the US UK to stop disclosing identity of stock market short sellers, FT reports Amazon to Lay Off Up to 30,000 Corporate Workers - WSJ ''' Leaked documents reveal the company’s robotics team plans to automate 75% of operations potentially replacing 600,000 warehouse workers by 2033''' strewth At some point, some may start to worry.. as long as markets make new highs it's all good, no-one cares about job cuts.. StockMarket.News on X: "Some of the biggest job cuts announced in recent months. • Amazon is cutting up to 30,000 corporate jobs. • Accenture is laying off 11,000 employees. • Target is cutting about 1,000 jobs. • General Motors let go of 200 salaried workers. • Rivian is eliminating 600 jobs. https://t.co/LA8nqc4CBe " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Interesting numbers on Nexperia: their chips are used by half Europe's auto companies, 86% of medical device companies and almost all (95%) the mechanical engineering sector. I thought the main impact from their disruption was the auto sector but it's even far broader than this. https://t.co/XjxFRJ15g5 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been historic: The Fed’s total assets as a % of nominal GDP have fallen to 21.6%, the lowest since Q4 2020. This also matches the level seen in Q3 2013 during the Fed’s 3rd QE program. The Fed now has the lowest Asset-to-GDP ratio https://t.co/3mqnRTCnah " / X Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "The Financial Times (FT) has finally admitted reality. It is obvious that “controlled decoupling” is going to happen between the U.S. empire and the BRICS+. Physical #Gold will take center stage as a Tier-1 international collateral alongside U.S. Treasury Bills, Notes, and" / X