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Iran update : Day 73 : no peace and only very little oil, Trump & Xi meeting this week key, Trump heading there with NO Iran deal whatsoever (all permutation possible..flow of crude vs rare earth, semis, infl, trade etc), Trump Calls Iran Response to U.S. Proposal 'Totally Unacceptable', he's effectively begging Iran for a deal..., Tehran's lengthy response on setting a framework for talks didn't resolve the U.S. demand for commitments in advance on its nuclear program. (WSJ) => Oil prices climb again as Washington and Tehran fail to agree on terms to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz, Trump says he ‘might’ move US troops to Poland from Germany >>> extraordinary article in the Atlantic... Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war. Markets : Crude up 4%, as Trump rejects Iran's peace proposal, Top 10 Companies Account for 34% of Profits in the S&P 500, Citadel: Only 22% of names in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index itself over the last 30D, reaching 30Y lows, UK politics heating up (Starmer speech today, Gordon Brown back, Harbone's cash to Farage..!), Modi asks Indians to stop buying gold, Absolute meltdown of Trump on Truth Social Morgan Stanley sees capital spending by the five largest AI hyperscalers topping $800 billion this year and $1.1 trillion next year. At 3.3% of gross domestic product, next year’s figure would exceed projected spending on national defense >>> markets strongly believe the 'war' will find a peaceful solution, JPY a little weaker on crude prices higher, BoJ-MOF need to step in again, IF...they are serious, or it'll come back in their face Putin says he thinks Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end. The Russian president's remarks came just hours after he had vowed victory in Ukraine at Moscow's most ‌scaled-back Victory Day parade in years Checkmate in Iran - The Atlantic Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war. >>> As a reminder Bob Kagan is: - The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat) - A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself... Iran replies to US proposal to end war, Trump finds response ‘unacceptable’ | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera Trump to discuss Iran with Xi Jinping during China visit: Officials | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeera Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases France-UK joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz | France in the United Kingdom Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warns Iran war is 'not over' unless uranium removed | The National Javier Blas on X: "MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away. The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be shortlived. https://t.co/dN2bRQ4GEM" / X Furkan Gözükara on X: "Absolute meltdown of Trump on Truth Social. Donald Trump openly confesses he expects the Supreme Court to act as his obedient cartel, crying that Justices he appointed lack blind loyalty and threatening to pack the court himself. The US President is completely unhinged. https://t.co/KBmbUFG8fK" / X Putin says he thinks Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end | Reuters ECB's Lagarde Says June Rate Decision Clouded by'Massive Uncertainty' | Forex Factory Gordon Brown returns to Number 10 as global finance envoy Which Labour MPs are calling for Starmer to go - and who is still backing PM? - LabourList The Road to Resignation: A study of British Prime Ministers – Blonde Money Wil Starmer go, won't he.. Modi asks Indians to stop buying gold, hitting jewellery stocks - The Business Times ‘Nigel is mad to accept his money’: who is Christopher Harborne, the mystery billionaire bankrolling Reform? | Reform UK | The Guardian AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy - WSJ Why Gen Z is abandoning Beijing for greener fields elsewhere in China | South China Morning Post Theft of luxury cars rises sharply in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Growing financial strain hits Swiss middle class - SWI swissinfo.ch University Hospital Zurich confirms serious errors in heart surgery - SWI swissinfo.ch

Iran update : The U.S. military said Thursday that Iran launched missiles, drones and small-boat attacks at U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and that the U.S. responded by intercepting the threats and striking Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks, Trump says ceasefire still in effect after US and Iran clash. UAE intercepts Iranian drones and missiles as tensions escalate, ''Pentagon in disarray'' overheard many times in media >>> the BIG risk remains that Iran doesn't bow to U.S demands and the strait stays close for longer.. as much as we all hope it won't happen..it's about planning for the worse and hoping for the best! markets have been a little too euphoriac on the back of Trump's tweets via Axios.. Markets : Norges hiked (protracted inflation and cloudy price outlook), US Treasury Secretary Bessent to visit Japan ahead of China Summit, focus on FX #USDJPY and Geopolitics, EU to Trump: A Deal Is a Deal, PTJ says US is late to regulating AI: 'We should have already done it', Donald Trump’s 10 per cent global tariffs have been ruled illegal by a US court, striking a fresh blow to him, BoJ needs to step in again (IF they want to be serious about JPY - need to move on rates too..NIKKEI has DOUBLED! since the tariffs lows last year..) Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked) Russia, Ukraine trade major attacks ahead of Moscow's Victory Day celebrations The Norges Bank became the 3rd G10 central bank to hike rates in this cycle after the BoJ and the RBA, U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.7 Trillion, Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing - Bloomberg The Chinese central bank remains the most unwavering “buy-the-dip” force in #GOLD, 18th straight month of buying China-EU investment deal should stay in ‘deep freezer’, outgoing trade chief warns “There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” – John Adams, U.S debt is now over total GDP.. (1st time since post war mid 40's..) US Senators Just put Trump’s Son-in-Law Jared Kushner under Investigation for getting Billions From Middle East While Shaping U.S. Foreign Policy...about time! The U.S. Treasury will likely have borrowed more than $2 trillion by the end of the fiscal year—a figure described as “beyond scary” by budget hawks UK local elections, you are going to hear a lot about 'Reform' being a national party, it isn't ! they doing well in areas that voted strongly for Brexit, and not very well that voted remain (from the excellent John Curtis) Ten years of Brexit: How have UK equities and the pound performed? | Euronews What a great success this has been! good grief.. 10 years after Brexit: • FTSE 100: +62% • S&P 500: +253% • DAX (Germany): +151% Pound down 10% vs dollar, 12% vs euro £160 billion+ pulled out of UK equity funds. Brexit didn’t cause every problem but it made Britain a chronically underperforming investment destination >>>>>No wonder 59% want to rejoin......... Trump threatens 'much higher' tariffs on EU by 4 of July Norges Bank hikes and keeps guidance hawkish | articles | ING THINK Trump says US-Iran peace proposal is ‘more than a one-page offer’ claims Iran will hand over enriched Uranium Russia, Ukraine trade major attacks ahead of Moscow's Victory Day celebrations - TRT World ‘This is just disarray’: alarm inside Pentagon after Hegseth staff purges | US military | The Guardian Paul Tudor Jones says US is late to regulating AI: 'We should have already done it' Election results 2026 live: Early English council results show Reform gains and Labour losses as counting yet to begin in Scotland and Wales - BBC News Treasury expected to borrow $2 trillion this year—more than $166 billion every month | Fortune Ed Conway on X: "📈SHALE REVOLUTION The world just changed... A few months ago there was a watershed moment. Few noticed it at the time. But it could shape geopolitics for decades. My primer on how America became energy independent (in statistical terms) and what it means for the rest of us👇 https://t.co/JofFBjmxFN" / X China-EU investment deal should stay in ‘deep freezer’, outgoing trade chief warns | South China Morning Post You just can't make this stuff up... Kash Patel’s Personalized Bourbon Stash - The Atlantic Crypto IPOs win over Wall Street, but not Main Street – The Armchair Trader Whirlpool earnings were so bad it suspended its dividend Investors taking a bath! Toyota fourth-quarter profit misses by wide margin as U.S. tariffs drive 49% slump a reminder that finance has really gone mad ... yeps..Jesus may come back this year - it's worth a shot !? or is it 🙂 Polymarket on X: "BREAKING: JESUS CHRIST RETURNING THIS YEAR? 4% chance. The odds have risen." / X

Iran updates : ...UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman denied Trump's access to Airspace/bases for the Project Freedom... that's WHY he TACO'ed.. (lost credibility long ago..), Trump is desperate to wrap up a deal with Iran BEFORE is visit to Beijing on 14-15 Mai, ongoing war puts Trump in a constrained position with Xi..., Iran, U.S. move closer on proposal to restart talks, mediators (China basically..) push a short-term memo to guide monthlong talks amid disputes over enrichment and sanctions relief Markets : Louis Gave's bull case on China (Podcast - fwiw couldn't agree more!), Apple now spends 10%+ of revenue on R&D for first time in 30 years, Tech rally hands hedge funds biggest gains since 2020, U.S earnings continue to push markets higher + hope for end of war (it's been a 'done' deal for a while, as discussed lately..), but it'll be a drag on things, might even be a buy the rumour & sell the fact...given valuations and general level of optimism, we shall see, for now 'mr market is loving it', Several whistleblowers say that Axios coordinated news with market insiders (surely not..!! this WILL be the largest trading scandal in history, they will make film of it..) Crude update : The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil, and...war is over.. SEC moves to scrap quarterly reporting requirement! why not, easier to fraud then! Norway approves the re-development of three North Sea oil-and-gas fields that were closed ~30 years ago FT-There are grounds to suspect that Donald Trump is thinking of something bigger than self-adulation. The best way to perpetuate your name is to arrange for a successor with the same name Putin’s Strongman Image Is Fading as Ukraine Brings War Home to Russia. The Russian president’s “Victory Day” cult has backfired as the conflict drags on longer than the Soviets’ battle against the Nazis. (WSJ) SNB's Martin: SNB has greater willingness to intervene on FX... after BoJ/MOF action, SNB should/could well get more involved #CHFJPY lower SEC moves to scrap quarterly reporting requirement Let’s just completely do away with price discovery, shall we?...really..? Hedge funds performance: Tech stock rally fuels best month since 2020 France moves aircraft carrier group toward Strait of Hormuz for possible defensive mission Trump says war will be 'over quickly' as Iran considers 14-point US proposal Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies The Bull Case for China: The Best Opportunity Right Now? | Louis Gave - The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Podcast on Spotify >>> well worth a listen, China bull, couldn't agree more ! Brilliant, watch it ! : Сarm1ne on X: "Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 crash, made $100 million, then spent years trying to destroy this footage you will watch him lose $6 million in one afternoon, sit in his chair and say "total devastation" then make it all back with 100% interest This documentary will change https://t.co/i1iiQu9vmm" / X Who needs the Magnificent 7: A long tail of opportunity The age of the American Pharaoh The Gold market: Watching what comes after – The Armchair Trader Bull Theory on X: "THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST INSIDER TRADING SCANDAL IN OIL HISTORY. According to The Kobeissi Letter, about $920 million in crude oil shorts were placed at 3:40 AM ET today, 70 minutes before any news went live. TIMELINE: 3:40 AM ET: 10,000 contracts ($920M) shorted oil with no https://t.co/zATUuculBx" / X Davos Deadlock: Trump Team, EU, and PLATFORM Hold Talks – Why US Citizens Remain Locked Out | The Guardian Godkjenner gjenopning av tre gassfelt i Ekofiskområdet - regjeringen.no What a legend, Happy 100th David Attenborough ! this has to be one of the best video (with sound!).. Attenborough: the amazing Lyre Bird sings like a chainsaw! Now in high quality | BBC Earth - YouTube

Iran update : Trump's daily TACO ('Project Freedom suspended' after 2days..), mission accomplished of course! (as expected, he is bored of dealing with the problem of his own creation!...) >>> Stocks climbed to a record and Brent declined after Donald Trump signalled progress toward a final agreement with Iran. The president said he would pause a US-led effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz. The naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in force. Iran’s foreign minister met with China’s top diplomat in Beijing, just days before Trump is due to arrive for an expected summit with Xi Jinping, Top US General Caine: 1,550 ships trapped in the Gulf with 22,500 mariners aboard, Trump walking away 'winning'.., backing away .., achieved absolutely nothing...and now will let EU and China sort out the mess..), Trump and the U.S have long lost all credibility in ME..END of the U.S global dominance.. >>> AND... Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a barrel premium of mid-April Markets : HK reported fastest economic growth in five years at 5.9%!, IMF rules on #USDJPY shows that can only do two more interventions till November.... (so these interventions better count ! or else..), UK 30y gilt hit highest yields since 1998 at 5.8%!, U.S ISM services PMI slightly down at 53.6, JOLTS down slightly to 6.866mio, Carlsberg goes for a hybrid 1'000 year bond ! yeps you read that right!!.., KOSPI continues to trade like a small cap up 7% on the day, HUGE swings this year, another 'likely' intervention from JAPAN overnight in #USDJPY, they need to bring it down to 140 to call it a success.. or else it'll backfire Azerbaijan has begun delivering natural gas to Germany, Italy and Austria China is targeting 70% domestic silicon wafer use by 2026 UK landlords exit rental sector amid regulatory pressures EU's Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis: Europe is facing a stagflationary shock Alphabet to raise at least €9 bln in its record Euro bond sale Gold Manipulation: The 'London Bias' : 1970-2024 UAE media are saying that it was Saudi Arabia that carried out the attack to disrupt oil exports, not Iran. Iran also denied today that it had struck any sites in the UAE." Visioner on X: "🇦🇿 🇦🇹 🇩🇪 BREAKING | Azerbaijan has begun delivering natural gas to Germany and Austria, President Ilham Aliyev announced. The State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) confirmed that supplies to buyers in both countries started in January 2026 via the Trans Adriatic https://t.co/EpRVZ007zj" / X Iran told Saudi Arabia it planned to 'crush the UAE': Report | Middle East Eye Iran Launches Persian Gulf Strait Authority as Tehran and Washington Battle for Control of Hormuz | IBTimes UK How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank Global oil reserves plunge at record pace as Middle East war strains supplies Meloni and Trump’s cooling relationship marks the failure of an EU-MAGA middle ground Hong Kong Q1 GDP expands at strongest pace in nearly five years - CNA Japan Has Two More Windows for Yen Intervention by IMF Rules - Bloomberg UK landlords exit rental sector amid regulatory pressures - PropertyWire Fitch Rates Carlsberg Breweries A/S's Proposed Hybrid Notes 'BBB-(EXP)' You read that right !... 1'000 year 'hybrid' bond Jeff Bezos shakes up Blue Origin staff incentives ahead of SpaceX IPO | News.az Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Hilarious that the message Rubio is asking China to give Iran during Araghchi's Beijing visit is that Iran is "globally isolated" when the very fact he's invited to China (and that China is now fighting US sanctions on Iran's oil) proves they aren't. https://t.co/UUGmfrL2d1" / X Farrukh on X: "BBC News finally cover Nigel Farage's £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire NF says its within the rules and shouts down at the reporter Then Chris Mason refuses to explain the rules Here's what the rules say @ChrisMasonBBC - shame on you for not explaining this: UK House https://t.co/3ZePbjjxnC" / X Gold Manipulation: The 'London Bias' | Sprott Money Canada American Eagle Gold wrestles for control of Pacific Booker – The Armchair Trader

Iran update : The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf, jolting a fragile four-week-old ceasefire. The American military fought off attacks as it facilitated the passage of two US-flagged vessels through Hormuz. Donald Trump said the war may last another two to three weeks in comments to Salem News Channel, US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, >>> Trump has boxed himself into a corner, blockade doesn't work, operation 'freedom' once again turns into an active war, so is the blockade really.. can't really win from a military point of view... he hasn't got any time, Iran has..same old..as discussed before, risk real shortages are kicking in now slowly but surely Markets : EU will add new goods to the anti-deforestation law, including palm-oil-based soap and soluble coffee, RBA hiked as expected, Chevron’s CEO has just told the world that physical shortages in oil supply will begin appearing, Philippine April inflation print was nasty: 7.2% - highest in 3years, Prime Minister Mark Carney makes a VERY compelling case for a closer union between Canada and Europe >>> AI premium-valuations vs rest of the world in markets continues... looks way overdone (nothing really new!), looking for a correction in Mai though. JPY in play, could well keep USD on soft side too, PM's look relatively cheap again from here, Brent is still 105+ China helps Zimbabwe make history: First lithium sulfate produced on African soil Swiss lawmakers seek to fast-track UBS capital decision as debate begins Yesterday, China ordered its companies to ignore U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, days before the Xi-Trump summit and in direct defiance of Treasury warnings >>> the era of U.S. financial bullying is over The EU is in talks with Anthropic about getting the bloc’s companies and banks tested for any vulnerabilities identified by the firm’s Mythos AI model Carney : “We are an energy superpower - the 3rd largest oil producer, 4th largest in natural gas, largest hydro renewable base. We’re committed to addressing climate change while providing reliable, affordable energy to our citizens and partners.... We’re here because of the moral and security imperatives of our cooperation...” U.S. launches mission to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran threatens attacks US strikes Iranian fast boats as Iran attacks UAE oil facility Attacks on U.S. Warships in Strait Test Trump’s Desire to End Iran War - WSJ Macron casts doubt on Trump’s Hormuz operation as France-US gap grows - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012 (1) Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Masterstroke - Global21 Brussels bans Chinese inverters from EU-funded power projects connected to European grid | South China Morning Post Foreclosure Filings Hit Six-Year High as Insurance and Tax Costs Squeeze US Homeowners | the deep dive US Foreclosure filing jump to 6 year high, as more homeowners fall behind on mortgage payments, per WSJ. Foreclosure rates are up 26% YoY with Florida and Texas topping the nation — driven by rising property taxes, insurance costs and debt strain of US homeowners, per ATTOM Australia hikes rates again and warns inflation will stay higher for longer Jane Street employees paid $9.4bn in 2025 Swiss lawmakers seek to fast-track UBS capital decision as debate begins | Reuters China-backed miner makes history as Zimbabwe exports first battery-grade lithium product | Business Insider Africa Politics In The U.K. on X: "Farage’s £5M gift — of which £800k was, by all indications, funnelled through his foreign national girlfriend to fund his Clacton house. https://t.co/UIhirszQpj" / X Depressing but a lot of it is true if not most of it !! a little bit far fetched.. maybe but.. Ricardo on X: "This Wall Street insider just exposed the secret doomsday escape plans of AI billionaires. 1 in 3 billionaires has a fully funded plan to abandon civilization when things collapse. They meet their pilots at Oakland airport, board a Gulfstream 650, fly to New Zealand, and https://t.co/2AObQmLZyX" / X Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026 European Commission is in contact with Anthropic on Mythos, Dombrovskis says | WSAU News/Talk 550 AM · 99.9 FM | Wausau, Stevens Point Mario Nawfal on X: "🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Chevron's CEO just put it bluntly: oil shortages are starting, Europe is canceling flights over jet fuel, the U.S. is next on the price hike list. 77% of Americans already blame Trump for high gas. That number's about to get worse... https://t.co/ekELSxSAxS" / X

Iran Updates : Trump : we were going to escort the ships...then..US officials claim Trump didn't mean US would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz but guide them to safe passages without any underwater mines, more importantly : China's Ministry of Commerce just officially declared it will not recognize, implement, or comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases Markets : The real energy-oil shock is 3 to 4 weeks away, Spirit airlines is the first casualties in the industry, Moskow hit by drones, TSLA 'most successful CON', Crude $100+ still >>> markets been pumped into April, AI had a massive push again + techs, a correction coming in Mai, very most likely as the 'real' energy shortages start, JPY defo worth a play, it has been way overdue (IF inflation is too high, and it is in Japan, either hike or manufacture currency higher - or both), seems MoF is going to force JPY higher for a bit....if that's so 7-10pct move should be on the card, otherwise 'why bother'.. >>> might want to consider shorts in CROSSJPY's too.. Jensen says Nvidia now has 'zero percent' market share in China — says US export policy 'has already largely backfired' #GOLD #silver : Wall Street is finally catching up. Here are the latest 2026 gold & silver price targets (Thread) Mark Carney just nailed it: Countries that rushed into dodgy deals with the US under Trump got deals “not worth the paper they were written on.” Ford CEO Jim Farley: We should not let Chinese EVs into the US. He said, "It's the most humbling thing I've ever seen. They have far superior in-vehicle tech." Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers (Thread) Saudi Arabia has come to view Israel and its actions as a threat to regional security and sees the UAE’s alignment with Israel in a poor light Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets (Thread) Oil market one month from crunch point as global stockpiles dwindle – The Irish Times JPY intervention – unilateral or joint will be key | articles | ING THINK USD/JPY forecast: Japanese yen outlook after the $35 billion BoJ intervention Banks seek to offload risk to avoid ‘choking’ on data centre debt How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank Jensen says Nvidia now has 'zero percent' market share in China — says US export policy 'has already largely backfired' | Tom's Hardware Moscow shaken by drone strike — Explosions just 6 km from Kremlin | RBC-Ukraine What does Spirit Airlines' shutdown mean for travelers? Resource Alpha on X: "Wall Street is finally catching up. Here are the latest 2026 gold & silver price targets: Gold: - J.P. Morgan: $6,300 - UBS: $6,200 (bull case $7,200) - Wells Fargo: $6,100 – $6,300 - Deutsche Bank: $6,000 - Goldman Sachs: $5,400 - Steve Hanke: $6,000 – $7,000 **Silver https://t.co/qUbwyF8mLO" / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. It now expects them to spend about $805bn this year, up from a previous estimate of $765bn. For next year, the forecast has been lifted from $951bn to https://t.co/PkboNQ8PD0" / X 🇨🇳 Liu Feng 刘锋 on X: "BREAKING: China's Ministry of Commerce just officially declared it will not recognize, implement, or comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases. Five named Chinese refineries sanctioned by Washington for buying Iranian crude: 🇨🇳 Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) 🇨🇳 Shandong https://t.co/6A5uxDvMDV" / X (24) The Fed just changed hands - The new chair is a hawk. | LinkedIn On May 15, Jerome Powell hands over the keys. The man who held rates steady through an oil shock, a diplomatic collapse, and four internal rebellions is done. Kevin Warsh cleared the Senate committee on Friday. He thinks rates should be higher. George Noble on X: "Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never https://t.co/5NnQQqTQoK" / X Rare bear sighting in Swiss valley - SWI swissinfo.ch

Belgium plans to nationalize all the country's nuclear power reactors, and says that plans to decommission the plants are now "halted with immediate effect." #URA Markets : U.S. Jobless Claims plunge to 189,000, lowest since March 1969,The national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946, JPY intervention confirmed by FM #USDJPY 160 top (JPY was helped with crude sell-off !..), U.S stocks best month since 2020, Iran's supreme leader vows to protect nuclear and missily capabilities!... >>> crude is still $105+, markets on highs (overdone..!), Iran-U.S far form clear, let alone over, hard to see real solution from recent comments >>> reduce risk from here, USD had a nice/usual sell-off into month-end, worth squaring up a little too JP Morgan calling out the potential for 2027 interest rate hikes: "We continue to look for a Fed on hold this year, with the next move a firming later next year." PTJ : "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." BoE Gov. Bailey: Monetary policy cannot prevent higher global energy prices from affecting UK economy and inflation, quite!.. The sheer volatility of energy prices makes it impossible to put probabilities on different scenarios ECB: will closely monitor situation, follow data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to monetary policy stance >>> Lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today. Deutsche Bank just projected gold at $8,000. Central banks have added 225 million ounces since 2008 while dollar reserves dropped from 60% to 40%. China. Russia. India. Turkey. Saudi Arabia. UAE. All buying. If gold hits just 40% of central bank reserves — Deutsche Bank's model says $8,000. China Signals First Nuclear Supercarrier, A New Era at Sea U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP - WSJ Iran's leader vows to protect nuclear and missile capabilities | AP News US stocks hit record highs in Wall Street’s best month since 2020 Yen surges as Japan reportedly intervenes to counter currency weakness Trump Eyes More U.S. Oil Output as Iran War Squeezes Supply | OilPrice.com ECB Sources: June Rate Hike Very Likely as Governors Debate Further Tightening ECB governors discussed the required amount of policy tightening on Thursday. Several governors believe at least two rate hikes may be needed unless the war ends and Brent crude falls quickly Some policymakers reportedly pushed for a hike on Thursday, but were willing to wait until June Sources say a June rate hike is very likely, with broad agreement on the need to move Apple shares rise after strong earnings beat | News.az FDA proposes excluding Novo, Lilly GLP-1s from compounding list Eli Lilly Foundayo prescriptions: 20,000 people taking drug, Ricks says Bull Theory on X: "BREAKING: Japan just confirmed a massive Yen-buying intervention. Last time the Bank of Japan sold US dollars to save the Yen, global markets crashed brutally. But this time it is even worse. Today they are dealing with two problems at the same time. Japan's 10 year bond https://t.co/kHvgv8YLgS" / X Belgium enters exclusive talks to take over ENGIE’s nuclear fleet Defence Index on X: "⭕🇬🇧🇪🇺🇷🇺 UK Builds New Naval Alliance to Counter Russia in Europe’s North The United Kingdom is forming a unified maritime force with nine European nations under the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to deter potential threats from Russia across the “open sea border” in Northern https://t.co/gbLcXmV6Iw" / X Sam Badawi on X: "PAUL TUDOR JONES ON BUYING THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW: "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened. He's not predicting a https://t.co/Sz7awktBny" / X Defence Index on X: "⭕🇨🇳 China Signals First Nuclear Supercarrier, A New Era at Sea China is hinting at its first nuclear powered aircraft carrier, a potential 110,000+ ton supercarrier capable of operating 100+ fighter jets. If realized, this would mark a major leap from conventional carriers, https://t.co/7fKyNsgXdb" / X

FOMC was deeply divided for Jerome's last meeting, Iran clouds outlook on inflation, 4 dissenters, 2 wanted go vie up the dovish bias and 1 only wanted to cut, 10's UST yields 4.42%, and 30's at 5% now.. Iran update : US Central Command has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran, likely including infrastructure targets, according to the Axios report, Brent hit a wartime high above $123, Trump earlier told the news outlet that he would not lift his naval blockade without a nuclear deal Markets : The longer Hormuz stays closed, the more of this $14T in USD that will return home to the US to bid for US oil, gas, & grains, markets now pricing in a 50% chance the Fed will raise rates by April 2027, META-MSFT earnings reports had a lot of red flags on the capex outlook.. >>> World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026 Germany now produces more ammunition than the U.S. Rheinmetall boosted artillery output from 70K → 1.1M rounds/year Key takeaways from Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair | CNN Business Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Iran’s Guards Seize Wartime Power, Blunting Supreme Leader's Role No Way Out: Why Permanent Damage to Persian Gulf Oil Wells Begins Now – NaturalNews.com Ukraine war latest: Russian helicopters struck in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, Ukraine's elite drone unit says Germany can now make more ammunition than the U.S. says defence giant boss The Real Reason France Took All Its Gold Back from the U.S. | Andy Schectman & Michelle Makori Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett says commodities could dominate the rest of the decade. BlackRock is moving away from the 60/40 portfolio. Capital is rotating into: gold miners, copper, uranium, energy. Gold squeezed between safe-haven allure, rate fears as underlying demand holds Where to now for OPEC after shock UAE exit? – The Armchair Trader Why Warren Buffett's cash hoard looks wise — and Greg Abel must tread carefully Mercedes-Benz Q1 2026 earnings: Profit drops as China sales fall Mercedes-Benz Q1 Results Revenue -5% Profit -17% Margin -44% The margin is now only at 4%. Mercedes-Benz has announced plans to reduce its global production capacity by more than 10% to approximately 2.2 million units in order to achieve cost savings....it's tough out there UBS entlässt und entlässt – Schuld sei Keller-Sutter – Inside Paradeplatz Burnham: Labour needs to change course after local elections Microsoft tops Q3 estimates, says AI business up 123% year over year Amazon (AMZN) Q1 earnings report 2026 Alphabet earnings send the stock higher. The company just posted massive cloud growth. - MarketWatch Meta Q1 2026 earnings report Meta down 7%, Google up 6% after hours, AMZM and MSFT not much into it

FOMC : could the message be 'rate cuts off the table for long while' Iran update : Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of Iran. The president prefers decisive victories, but none of the available options provides him with a swift exit from the conflict Markets : JPM on AI data center spending. Eye-popping projections (Thread), The U.S. wants to ban China’s High-Tech cars (can't compete fast enough..), Gold reserves have eclipsed adjusted dollar reserves, big earnings day after the bell (AMZN, META, Google and MSFT), China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years, Hedge fund repo borrowing is now up to a record $3.4 trillion (Thread) >>> regular question coming through "If oil prices are above $100/barrel and the Iran War isn't over, why are stocks at record highs?"... let's see how goes after FOMC (no cut for longer ?..partly expected mind) and MAG4 earnings after the bell ! >>> we've had a huge rally since early April, worth considering a hedging trade from here! #SPX500 #QQQ Jamie Dimon today: "The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis.", he added that 'credit downturn will be worse than people think', he is the head of the largest U.S bank after all.. UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1. "... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..." >>> pretty clear they want to pump more oil over time..Iran War amplifies UAE isolation and rift with Saudis Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends into a Death Spiral. Businesses are closing, unemployment is soaring, and food is increasingly unaffordable. (WSJ) King Charles to President Trump: “Indeed you recently commented, Mr. President, that if it were not for the United States, European countries would be speaking German. Dare I say that if it wasn't for us, you'd be speaking French” The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table? - WSJ One of the more memorable lines of Jay Powell's tenure came almost exactly two years ago when he dispatched a question about stagflation. Inflation had been steadily improving, the economy was solid, and the premise was far enough removed from reality that Powell quipped, "I don't see the 'stag' or the 'flation,' actually." Fast forward to this week. Powell's last meeting as chair caps a stretch in which the parallel to the 1970s isn't as easy to dismiss. The focus this week—aside from the looming "regime change"—will be on a quiet committee debate over whether to admit that rate cuts are off the table Trump claims King 'agrees' Iran shouldn't have nuclear weapon in White House banquet speech - live updates - BBC News Options Brief - Mag 7 earnings on deck - 28 April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland Jamie Dimon warns of 'some kind of bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade of Iran Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 Iran’s economy was in a dire state before the war. Now millions face job losses and poverty | CNN Robinhood shares fall as Q1 earnings and revenue miss estimates Robinhood stock crashes -8.5% after-hours as the company reveals it will cost $100 million to integrate Trump Accounts. UAE Quits OPEC Amid Iran War, Shaking Global Oil Order – Outlook Business (1) Iran War Amplifies UAE Isolation and Rift with Saudis The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso - WSJ The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Hedge fund repo borrowing is now up to a record $3.4 trillion. Repo borrowing is a form of short-term financing where hedge funds pledge Treasuries as collateral to borrow cash, allowing them to make levered bets. Repo borrowing has more than TRIPLED since 2019. https://t.co/YCWTcEDHcp" / X Brian Sozzi on X: "JP Morgan on AI data center spending. Eye-popping projections: "Data center capex among the top 4 U.S. cloud service providers continues to trend higher for 2026 following the last update, as the industry continues to see investments in AI and related infrastructure https://t.co/EY8ykZm9kr" / X Ben Norton on X: "This bombshell report shows how the US government buys black market gold from violent Colombian drug cartels, but falsely claims the gold originated in the US. Ironically the US government designated these cartels as terrorist orgs, as it buys their gold. https://t.co/Pzv04Oainn https://t.co/gwU7Br928z" / X Vote on June 14: Poll shows majority in favor of the SVP's 10 million Swiss initiative | blue News UBS profits rocket 80% to $3 billion for first quarter beat Lukas Ekwueme on X: "Gold reserves have eclipsed adjusted dollar reserves. Our financial system is changing before our own eyes. Gold is quickly regaining its spot at the center of our financial system. This means increasing competition for dollars/US Treasuries at a time when the US is spending https://t.co/MTSRbpel8Y" / X

Iran update : The White House is weighing Iran’s latest proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the war. The WSJ reported that Donald Trump and his advisers were wary of Tehran’s offer, particularly regarding the country’s nuclear program, Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war (NYT and WSJ), Iran's latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved, US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Markets : South Korea surpassed the UK to become the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, small miss for Novartis, BoJ 'expected hawkish hold', government bond yields are set to stay higher for longer (Blackrock), GS warns on software stocks again, U.S. Farm bankruptcies surge +46% as fertilizer costs squeeze Farmers, Semiconductor Stocks are now trading at a 60x PE, the richest valuation since the Dot Com Bubble (after the best month in 25years.. (..flow of momentum funds is insanely fast!..but once the hyperscalers throw in the towel on CapEx...it's over again).. >> hawkish FOMC; ECB, BoE expected (hikes priced!), Bank of England could surprise given split vote, markets on all time highs and crude is still $100... PM's softer (new opportunity to long coming), USD not doing much, CROSJPY's on highs with higher yields overall and no BoJ surprise.. (hike maybe in June... expected) Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney today: “Many of our former strengths, built on our close ties to the US, have become weaknesses. The US has changed.” “We’re deepening our partnerships with the EU, the Nordic countries, and Australia.” NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations/thread Goldman Sachs saying there is another cliff for software stocks to fall off of. From today: "We expect the debate around AI disruption, and therefore uncertainty about many companies' terminal value, will persist for at least several quarters. The threat of disruption will likely represent a persistent overhang until the later stages of AI adoption. In the meantime, disproving this disruption narrative is challenging. For investors to have confidence in the long-term impact of AI, it will require more evidence of where AI is impacting earnings, which could take several quarters if not years." US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ https://t.co/v07YrqaXFI" / X China Opens Government Bond Futures Trading to Foreign Investors - Bloomberg Bank of Japan holds rates, raises inflation outlook | News.az BlackRock says higher government bond yields are here to stay Oil giant Shell agrees to buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $16.4 billion Swiss government looking at replacing Microsoft South Korea braces for an end to modern life as we know it South Korea passes UK to become world's eighth-largest stock market | World News - Business Standard Revolut targets $200bn valuation for IPO | Sifted Novartis Q1 profit misses expectations as sales fall on generic headwinds By Investing.com Over 16,000 Claude users worry AI will take their jobs, finds Anthropic – Firstpost ‘Kiss of death’: how the US killed a Swiss merchant bank - SWI swissinfo.ch she actually predicted the future ... Anonymous on X: "Karoline Leavitt "It will be funny, it will be entertaining, there will be some shots fired tonight in the room. Everyone should tune it, it's gonna be really great!" Yes, she actually said this 👆 https://t.co/rgoM5QzUr2" / X Hedgeye on X: "U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers: The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% https://t.co/dRhRbrPL9B" / X

Iran war update : Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for 3 weeks, says Trump, but Oil climbed for a fifth day on a lack of perceived progress between the US and Iran on resuming talks, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively remaining shut. Donald Trump’s social media posts and threats are hindering Tehran’s willingness to engage in peace talks, officials said, Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks, Trump said, creating space for broader talks and easing an obstacle to ending the US-Iran war-BBG, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until $11 trillion in frozen Iranian assets are released. If no proposal is presented within the next 48 hours, the ceasefire may end.” Abbas Araghchi >>> still remains a little shaky.. Markets : confusion, no resolution in Hormuz though for now, but it seems (we hope) they are trying to resolve 'some' issues..., crude prices disagreed yesterday though, equity sold off on some headlines yesterday, but back to where we were most of yesterday-all week, all pretty quiet in FX and bonds, CHF slightly weaker this week (turn?), big MAG7 earnings next week, DeepSeek V4 chatters too Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil DeepSeek unveiled its V4 Flash and V4 Pro AI models, pitching them as its most powerful open-source systems to rival OpenAI and Anthropic Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Russia sold 22 tons of gold in Q1 2026 — nearly 40% of all the net gold it bought across the previous six years, as Crude revenues collapsed (no longer in Q2..) GS : This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries Trump: “I took a lot of heat for saying drugs were going down 500%, 600%, 700%. But we also say sometimes 50%, 60%, it’s a different kind of calculation, and people understand it better.”....ok then #GBP Ex-Brexit boss says Britain should rejoin EU after 'failed promises' Polish PM questions whether US is ‘loyal’ to Europe’s defence Japan core inflation accelerates after five months as Iran war stokes energy worries Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year There you have it : The Tennessee Holler on X: "“Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets re: the war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” 🤷🏼 And there you have it, folks! https://t.co/9fy5Z7T9CV" / X (1) I Flagged Every Trade - by Peter Girnus "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years Peter Girnus 🦅 on X: "$2.1 billion in perfectly timed oil bets across five presidential announcements in six weeks. Every one flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions in fourteen years. I pulled the case files. https://t.co/pBjk9rITkY" / X Earnings next week ! Mag 7 Earnings Preview April 2026 | Saxo Bank Switzerland DeepSeek Releases DeepSeek V4-Pro & V4-Flash, Delivers GPT 5.4 & Opus 4.6-Level Performance At Fraction Of The Price Microsoft plans first voluntary retirement program for US employees China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "UNUSUAL High‑Impact English Translation Saudi Arabia Blocks a Major U.S.–Israeli Regional Project, Tel Aviv in Turmoil Saudi Arabia has effectively halted a massive Israeli‑American trade corridor initiative, triggering intense frustration in Tel Aviv. Riyadh refused to https://t.co/fPyHA7VWU2" / X ...US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a number of allies in the Gulf region and in Asia have requested currency swap lines from the United States to help deal with energy shocks and other fallout from the Middle East war.... Bulgaria’s Kremlin-friendly ex-president wins election in landslide | CNN This Time is Different (from 2022) — The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on European Manufacturing Industries

#UBS The Swiss government has laid out plans that would force UBS to increase its capital by at least $20bn Iran war update : a lot of confusing comments from far too many different parties.. Trump wants out of Iran for domestic political reasons. But he knows that making a deal resembling the 2015 Obama deal, or one that suggests he's cutting and running, will hurt him politically. If he extends the ceasefire in Iran, it will confirm he only wants a deal. Iran will see right through that. The White House said Donald Trump has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian peace proposal while Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminent-BBG, John Phelan ousted after clashing with defence secretary Pete Hegseth, Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Dozens of ships exiting the Gulf include several loaded with Iranian oil... Markets : CHINA sold oil aggressively (Mercuria CEO), equity markets holding up well, AI related names, MAG7 etc recovered fast from early April rally, bumpy road ahead though, the real pain comes now ( inflation, crude shortages etc), things can turn swiftly, that all said, Trump seems desperate for some sort of 'exit' out of Iran situation, the longer it goes on, the worse it is for him and med-terms..the hard data will get softer from here, specific downgrades in earnings likely too, it's not all bad though if Kevin Marsh is right, and AI kills inflation... but that's for later on.. China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says Japan Finance Minister Katayama: FSA and BoJ will meet with megabanks on Friday to discuss the AI model Mythos Italy has become the second country in the European Union, after France, to exceed €3 trillion in public debt, according to Eurostat data Dutch intelligence says Russia has suffered over 1.2 million military casualties in Ukraine, while Ukrainian losses are estimated at more than 500,000 Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We’re at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won’t be inflationary—we’re in the early innings of a structural decline in prices.” And finally... RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." - not even kidding.. Trump news at a glance: Pentagon replaces secretary of the navy amid US blockade in strait of Hormuz | Trump administration | The Guardian China "Aggressively" Dumps Oil In Tenders As Iran War Reshapes Flows | OilPrice.com Iranian tankers bypass US blockade Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months, Congress is told - The Washington Post Kevin Warsh's preferred inflation measure could come back to bite him UBS says Swiss capital plan 'disproportionate', would weaken bank and economy Clash Report on X: "Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: Netanyahu presented the Iran War case to us too. The response was no. The prediction was regime change — that people would rise up. None of that happened. Obama said no. Bush said no. Biden said no. We were lied to about what that https://t.co/J7NiWxt67f" / X Russia to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin China May Overtake US as World’s Top Nuclear Power Operator by 2030, CNEA Says JPMorgan Says China Property Tipping Point Will Drive Up Stocks - Bloomberg Putin finally admits Russia's economy is in trouble and grasps for answers | Fortune Tesla (TSLA) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates Brian Krassenstein on X: "OMFG! RFK Jr: "President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages. If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that's a 600% reduction." No, you imbecile. That’s a 98.33% drop. No math besides make-believe math makes it 600%. https://t.co/5lmJ24WXur" / X WORDS FAIL !.... how is this even possble, may be we all need to go back to school..