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Update : Donald Trump insisted Iran is negotiating and desperate to make a deal, even as Tehran publicly rejected Washington’s overtures and issued conditions of its own . Iran is drafting a law to impose Hormuz transit tolls, Fars reported. Deployment of thousands of American troops to the Mideast has fanned fears of a risky ground invasion. White House threatens more attacks if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflict, North Korea warns the U.S. against a ground invasion of Iran— signalling it PLANS to support Tehran if the war escalates. >>> TRUMP: “I call it a ‘military operation’. I’m told not to call it a war because you’re supposed to have congressional approval to go to war.” Iran published a list of 10 countries whose citizens can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without paying 2 million dollars, and Mexico ranks second after China ….Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait/Thread Markets : Lloyd Blankfein warned of a “fire” risk in private assets, private assets, credit, markdown (joining call of what's been pointed out for a long while), Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial (opens the flood gates to many more cases that are 'halted-pending'..), Trump to Travel to China on May 14-15 for Summit With Xi, Larry Fink reminds everyone of the obvious (Crude at $150 = global recession >>> infrastructure, oil, NatGas, military bases, the next final danger is water contamination, which is 'the' most terrible act possible, let's clearly hope for some understanding between Iran and U.S/Israel, hard to follow exactly where we are , 5days deadline is tomorrow though, what next ? U.S troops on the ground, Kharg Island ? fwiw, have the feeling that Mr Market is hoping-praying-positioned for a relative short war & part resolution, while we have to hope so, markets are not positioning for a prolonged period of troubles, let alone escalation.. a deeper corrections towards SPX 6K should not be too much of a shock given elevated energy prices, crude, inflation (no FED cuts for 2026), trade dislocation, and general sentiment deteriorating, consumers, daily traders buying the dip etc, getting hurt now.. watch 200dma's, SPX500 is around 6630 (weekly close below will matter as will monthly-quarterly close next Tuesday..) Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as “haven for Jewish people” - Haaretz The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist...coincidence with office raide ..? Australians can now live & work freely in the EU for 4 years and vice versa US insists talks ongoing even as Iran rejects Trump outreach - The Business Times Iran gives five conditions for ending war, official tells state TV | Middle East Eye After Delay Due To Iran War, Trump To Meet Xi In Beijing On May 14-15 Meta and YouTube found liable on all charges in landmark social media addiction trial - CBS News BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns $150 oil could trigger global recession JPMorgan offers clients a new way to hedge AI debt risk The Big short ? Brian Sozzi on X: "Deutsche Bank with a reminder to not overlook the current oil price shock: https://t.co/dVqVUi4Xz0 " / X Israeli official suggests purchasing Greek islands as "haven for Jewish people" Lloyd Blankfein Warns Private Markets Face Risk of Widespread Asset Markdowns - Bloomberg Volkswagen may turn car factory into Iron Dome hub with Israel partnership | World News - Business Standard Megatron on X: "BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The New York Times has confirmed that most of the 13 US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed and empty. Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, https://t.co/xdsGP465Rp " / X Rothschild family sells 27% stake in The Economist to Canadian billionaire Robert A. Pape on X: "Iran just played another card, threatening vessels thru Red Sea strait. Houthi proxies fully capable of doing this. Vessel would need to divert thru Suez, add weeks, if not months, to journeys — if further strikes don’t shutter the port completely. Escalation Trap tightens… https://t.co/gQEedVlThy " / X

Let's hope for thebest....Reports a 'proposal' for a deal...Trump backed down from his 48 hours ultimatum, not because of the war, but because of the escalation int he Gulf... so now suggests.. 'NO nuke, 1month ceasefire, reopen Hormuz and a total of 15points to end the Iran war'' (many points that were already agreed pre war at the GVA talk, a deal that was 'sabotaged' )... >>> IRAN responded to the talks, with extensive demands.. Markets : Trump ends the war, or maybe not, or it gets worse, clearly desperate to manipulate markets in short-term, sadly enough it works...all very North Korea like, Crude prices down, USD slightly softer, risk rallies a little more, PM's back up (once the 'risk-off, USD liquidity seeking scenario' out of the way..), Intel, AMD tell clients of March, April CPU price hikes, |  Meta Platforms delays EU launch of new display-equipped Ray-Ban smart glasses! >>> relief rally in risk-Eq, on hope of a deal into month-end possibly, if so, USD can weaken again for same reason, crude down to $80 perhaps, why not... Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors.. / Thread Former UK Minister Alan Duncan confirms there was a clear peace agreement mediated by Oman for ZERO nuclear proliferation in Iran. But it was sabotaged and betrayed by Israel because they always wanted to attack Iran. Israel started this war! Israel's defense minister just said Israel will occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River marking the first clear statement of intent to steal the territory Morgan Stanley analysts: “We see the $80-90 level as a 2026 price point in a de-escalation scenario . Continued constraints would likely drive an oil price near $100-110 for at least 2-3 months…Modeling oil at $150+ introduces new non-linearities to economies.” General Jim Mattis completely destroys Trump's Iran war strategy on live TV . He says hitting 15,000 targets means nothing without a real plan, and calls the demands for unconditional surrender and regime change absolute "delusional nonsense." The Rothschild raid just got bigger. French prosecutors say diplomat Fabrice Aidan transferred UN Security Council briefings to Epstein No nuke, 1-month ceasefire, opening of Strait of Hormuz: Trump's 15-point plan to end Iran war Iran responded to the Trump administration’s ceasefire proposal with extensive demands: - Closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf. - A new Strait of Hormuz framework allowing Iran to charge transit fees. - Full sanctions relief. - An end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah. - No discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Oil prices fall as Trump hails ‘productive’ conversations with Iran on an end to the war | CNN Business US Deploys Troops To Middle East While Pursuing Iran Talks On Thursday - Report - i24NEWS US sees possibility of diplomacy with Iran as war costs rise Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz. Tehran tells IMO member nations that vessels must co-ordinate with it to pass through vital waterway Israel plans to occupy southern Lebanon from the Blue Line to the Litani River - ABC News Fed's Barr: Elevated Inflation Likely Merits Extended Rate Pause | Morningstar Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds (1) Private equity and private credit is discovering what happens when you try to finance illiquid assets with redeemable capital and sell it to retail investors 'Big Short' Legend Steve Eisman Says SoFi's Private Credit Problems Could Be 'Potentially A Disaster' The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it | Fortune AI boom fuels Intel, AMD CPU crunch, hits PC makers with rising costs | Tech News - Business Standard Meta Hits Pause on Ray-Ban Display Expansion to Europe and Canada some real news finally..

Richard-Mark Dodds, Chief Investment Officer of Swiss fund manager Pure Value Metrics, who had previously predicted the Credit Suisse failure now talks about Markets and Relative Value in 2023. To view the other CNBC appearance on the demise of Credit Suisse, press here .

Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come Apollo : only 45% of requested withdrawals from $15 bn private credit fund.. >>> so we had BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, yesterday Apollo, now watch for the likes of Goldman, KKR, Ares and Oaktree over the next few days / weeks!!... Blue Owl’s other fund, OCIC, might show some nasty record into month/quarter end.., Private Credit Fund Run by Future Standard and KKR Cut to Junk by Moody’s >>> IT's beginning to ADD-UP ! Mini TACO.. The USeee Trump backed down, the "Art of the Deal"..., he was forced to cancel strikes because Iran's guaranteed retaliation against Israel and the Gulf states would be "enormous". The cost of war is too high. Iran called his bluff.!...Netanyahu disagrees with what Trump is doing, >>> Kalanovic : If in a conflict one is willing to lie to quickly remove pressure from market, what that signals to the enemy? Signals weak hand, low pain threshold so that they need to press on. What it signals to allies? Stay away unreliable policies change on few points of market drop. Marine traffic data shows, Many of ships are starting to pass through Strait of Hormuz again, it seems Iran approved all GCC, European and foreign Ships with $2 million in CNY  except Israel and US Markets : Clear fraudulent action pre Trump 'mini TACO', though fair to say it was heading into such a scenario (UST's, bonds, eq, usd down together always ends up in some kind of TACO..), Donald talks major points of agreement, Iran is having none of it, EU and Australia clinch trade and security pacts, Japan PM says country will start releasing oil reserves Thursday, GS : brace for a worldwide inflation surge , Trump just weaponized LNG >>> the global issues will remain for a while, they won't go away overnight, if if Trump wishes so, airline disruption, crude, freight, fertilizer AND inflation will be higher, (it could still get worse clearly.. but seems Trump 'is' folding'..as financial, economic consequences too dear for him..) and inflation likely to remain more elevated than previously thought, clearly..., BONDS not doing what they supposed to do lately.. equity markets should struggle although it's not bad for all companies! US Envoy Says EU faces higher tariffs if Trade Deal fails, usual threats, what else... EU and Australia clinch trade and security pacts Japan reports lower-than-expected core inflation for February Why the damage to Qatar’s gas infrastructure could push costs higher for years to come Iran war could widen as UAE, Saudi Arabia align with US, Israel to join conflict, says report – Firstpost Trump Delays Strikes on Iranian Energy Sites 5 Days .... Iran Says War Continues Until All Sanctions Are Lifted: TV US Envoy Says EU Faces Higher Tariffs if Trade Deal Fails - TT More threats..what's new.. But... its about this and it matters! ... (1) THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera ‘Zombie’ tankers take Tehran Toll Booth route as more vessels make detour :: Lloyd's List Iran conflict hits automotive manufacturing: Aluminium shortages, $112 oil and factory cuts Iran attacks in Strait of Hormuz are ‘economic terrorism,’ UAE oil exec says NO doubt Trump's mates had a little punt ahead of his TACO... or is it pure coincidence ?... Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) on X: "5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight! https://t.co/RhE3hiC0lj " / X Apollo private credit fund gives investors only 45% of requested withdrawals kristen shaughnessy on X: "$3 Trillion Private Credit Beast: Looks Fine… Until It Doesn’t “….in an ominous echo of past financial crises, no one is sure just how much banks’ lending exposure to private credit funds could end up costing the financial system and economy in a shake-up. Estimates vary https://t.co/5ZzVWmmqN7 " / X Amazon Says Web Services Disrupted After Drone Operations In Bahrain, Cloud Migrations Underway | World News - News18 European Green Transition sees tailwind from new UK strategy – The Armchair Trader UK looks at supporting vulnerable households after surge in energy prices

Latest on Iran war : 24hours to find out if Trump carries out his threat !. . Donald Trump issued Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days or have its power plants bombed. Tehran threatened to “completely” close the corridor if attacked . Two Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defences, injuring about 115 people, while the IDF said it began strikes on regime infrastructure in Tehran. Saudi Arabia is relying on a 1,200-kilometer pipeline built in the 1980s to maintain its oil flows, Iranian Missile Strikes Are Costing Big Oil Billions in Lost Revenue. Damaged energy infrastructure is likely to take years to come back online , but a surge in oil-and-gas prices is helping to offset some of the lost production for now. (WSJ), Trump-Xi summit on hold until Iran conflict ends, ME Countries thought hosting US bases made them safe. Instead, it’s made them targets!!../Rory , “We must face reality — the West has split.” / Stubb Markets : Trump's 48hour threat, OIL up 'only' around $100 again, Eq futures pointing down again, as everything sells off, including UST's... 10s UST now 4.42% !!!... MAG7 down 12% YTD, GOLD 200dma around $ 4¨100 (liquidation, where the profits are.., USD liquidity seeking from ME most likely and killing any other leveraged positions elsewhere) >> markets will be jittery, HUGE week IMHO.. !! we may get some sort of TACO this week (quite how it looks like is another question..),... but VERY hard to tell what happens in between.., risk is definitely getting towards cheap(er) levels! prepare your shopping list, we have ''Netanyahu is panicking. He admits on camera that he and Trump are desperately trying to drag Europe and the rest of the world into their disastrous war. He is begging the international community for help because the US and Israel cannot win this alone'' Friedrich Merz’s reform drive put at risk after vote in western state Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent, people say even CEOs may be replaced now Qatar Airways parks long-haul jets in storage in Spain. Transfer of planes to Teruel airport signals airline is preparing for ongoing Gulf conflict, SWISS cutting tons of flight over summer, other airlines in similar situation Google Searches for "Help With Mortgage" have soared to the highest level in history, surpassing even the peak of the Global Financial Crisis "Sometimes, you have to escalate to deescalate." — Walther Funk, German Reich Minister of Economics, 1941 "Sometimes, you have to escalate to deescalate." — Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, 2026 Trump gives Iran 48-hour ultimatum to reopen Strait of Hormuz or face ‘obliteration’ of power infrastructure | The Independent Bond Market’s Big 2026 Fed Bet Flipped on Its Head by Oil Surge Trump-Xi summit on hold until Iran conflict ends, people briefed say Oil whipsaws as war risks to energy facilities counter prospect of eased Iran sanctions The Week Ahead: data set to show the economic effects of the war – The Armchair Trader President Stubb of Finland: ‘We must face reality – the West has split’ – Ukraine Today .org Jim Bianco on X: "Danny @citrinowicz is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer in charge is IDF intelligence on Iran. He is now a think-tank analyst regularly sought by mainstream outlets and policymakers. —— Many expect Trump to TACO, declare victory, and leave. Citrinowicz warns this" / X (1) THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera Iran threatens to strike Gulf power plants after Trump ultimatum | Reuters IEA discussing further oil stock releases, chief Birol says Winners and losers in France’s municipal elections – POLITICO UK energy supplier flags growing debt burden as Iran conflict drives up prices Starmer adviser calls for temporary UK energy profit cap Elon Musk Wants to Build the World's Largest Chip Factory Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent, people say even CEOs may be replaced now SWISS offers up to CHF15,000 for voluntary departure - SWI swissinfo.ch SWISS cancels hundreds of flights this summer due to pilot shortage - SWI swissinfo.ch Qatar Airways parks long-haul jets in storage in Spain Liz Webster on X: "⚠️‼️ @RoryStewartUK gives the truth on #Iran Countries thought hosting US bases made them safe. Instead, it’s made them targets. If strikes are launched from your territory, you become part of the conflict and the infrastructure around you is at risk. That applies just as https://t.co/QxcLDq0gop " / X Global Insight Journal on X: "🇨🇳 Professor Jiang — the man nicknamed “The Professor” because he is truly one of the most dangerous geopolitical minds in the world — revealed to Tucker Carlson words you will not hear anywhere else: Iran’s war is an American quagmire with no bottom… China is the biggest https://t.co/7bsH0sjH3M " / X

''' "Who knows better about surprise than Japan?" Trump said, before adding, "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"'' UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issue a joint statement expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while welcoming countries undertaking preparations, coordinating strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases, and exploring ways to boost output. >>> it takes TWO to TACO.. Iran has a say in it.. Markets : BoE unchanged as expected (and pretty hawkish overall - sharp UK gilts yields move in 2y +40bps !! somebody blew up out there..) , Software 'credit' gets all the headlines, building materials is quietly falling apart, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market , good wrap on the Iran war from Ed Conway (Thread), Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon (big if true) >>> slightly oversold Eq markets, liquidation in PM's last few days (ME accounts looking for 'any' usd liquidity..AND China buying big last 24hours...), Trump looking for some sort of 'off ramp' exit (allegedly) or will he go further in Iran with ground troops (seems unlikely, or suicidal ..probably just threats).., Pantagon asking for another $200bn for the war, 3weeks in, that's more of a sign that its not even close of being over though.. >>> HUGE quadruple witching OpEx day, watch moves into close.. FED : Near‑term inflation expectations have risen on supply shocks tied to energy and geopolitics, which tend to be episodic and act more like a tax on consumers. By contrast, longer‑term inflation expectations tied to wages, services, and consumption remain well anchored, suggesting demand‑driven inflation continues to ease. That distinction helps explain the Fed’s patience without taking rate cuts off the table this year..... U.S. M2 Money Supply hits new all-time high of $22.45 Trillion QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption , that's just the symptoms, this disease comes back every 10+ years, seen it before over the last 35yeara in markets... >> it's just too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline (lazy), and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned (driven by greed).. Goldman Sachs on stocks: The Hormuz shock is the largest oil supply shock on record" Equity correction risk remains elevated  in the near term, but we continue to think bear market  risk remains limited. While geopolitical shocks and their market impact are difficult to time, we think equities have not priced in enough risk premium for the risk of a more lasting shock - based on the disruptions so far our economists have already reflected a worsening growth/inflation mix and raised their recession probability." Israel Will Avoid Attacking Iran's Energy Assets, Netanyahu Says If the regime survives: Iran war raises the ante for US, Israel - Middle East Institute BIG if true Express News on X: "🚨 Breaking: Israeli soldiers have reportedly declared opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu during a clash in Lebanon, saying they no longer want to fight and are calling to stand together against him, demanding peace and stating that war brings them no benefit. It was claimed that https://t.co/MPgO7i792R " / X Chinese government pours $20 billion into a revolutionary AI model — opening the door for everyone to join the next era of artificial intelligence. Donald Trump, Japan's Takaichi announce $40 billion US nuclear reactor project | Today News This was the low of the lows.. Trump makes Pearl Harbor joke during meeting with Japan PM – NBC New York Meta AI agent’s instruction causes large sensitive data leak to employees | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says | Reuters Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% amid Iran conflict No-one on committee voted for a cut this time. And minutes say: "CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy." Investors expect hikes, not cuts, later this year Why Ferrari temporarily suspended deliveries in the Middle East? Explained | Business Upturn Airline SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April due to high fuel prices, DI reports | Reuters junkbondinvestor on X: "Software gets all the headlines. Building materials is quietly falling apart. > Cornerstone: 60 cents > Jeld-Wen: 74 cents > US LBM: 90% EBITDA decline guided Higher rates. Less renovation. Same 2022 leverage https://t.co/iMWL3ek4tI " / X UK interest rates held at 3.75% as Iran war scuppers hopes of a cut | MoneyWeek TFTC on X: "JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products https://t.co/T6kiOshljb " / X Ed Conway on X: "📽️ There have been many scary, unnerving days in this latest Gulf war. But the past 24 hours was particularly bad. Why? Because both sides are now causing lasting damage to the world economy's life support system. Our latest primer on the econ consequences of this war👇 https://t.co/OaFcS7ehr8 " / X

The Fed sort of said neutral rates are going higher (dots, inflation..), not temporarily but maybe even structurally, a 3.1% terminal rate reprices EVERYTHING with a duration component.. unless of course we get a big recession and inflation heads south, but not for pleasant reasons clearly.. and Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the bad news early: "There is effectively ZERO NET JOB CREATION in the private sector." ''The American empire is at risk''.. clearly, of being replaced by CHINA in the Middle East , they are stepping up to mediate peace in the region, in Yuan, completely bypassing the US.... AND >>> The AI boom is AT RISK of being confirmed over, a long lasting, more expensive / energy crisis, making energy hungry AI investments near impossible.. / far too expensive, and thus #valuations are way off... Markets : US February PPI came in higher than expected at 3.4% vs expectations at 2.9% This means core inflation is heating up!, private credit exodus from investors spreads to consumer loans, BANK DEFAULTS likely up from Middle East resorts, refineries, infrastructure, real estate..., JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand, Stoneridge AM only 11% you can have, Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed (every single time - chart available)..,   U.S national debt $39 TRN, two ECB hikes of 25bps now priced in for ECB in 2026, FED will do nothing (unless forced to emergency cut if say equity markets tank in short-term - they will panic), PM risk assets as ME capital disappears >>>> overall, NO need to be too brave, wait for opportunities to come your way.., the real eye of the storm is approaching, prepare your shopping list of solid names, balance-sheets..(we have), liquidation as/when funding runs out in parts of the world, create dislocation and opportunities.., a 10-20pct correction cannot be ruled out, due to this ME war, it is ALL about the length of the conflict, but already some EXTREMELY serious damage done to infrastructure, military stance, LNF, crude, fertilizers and so on.., huge GDP loss in ME, followed by more bad loans etc.. Private credit is panicking : • Defaults have quadrupled • ~20-25% exposure to software facing AI disruption • Retail investors are running for the exits, only getting 10-15pct liquidity.. (bet they weren't told this when they initially invested..) China stops fertilizer exports as American farmers face fertilizer shortages Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, Iran does not need to win a conventional war. All they have to do is keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and bleed the Gulf economies dry....and they don't need to be on Truth social every 30 seconds either... Citi not ruling out $200 oil. "We are incrementally bullish very near-term and see prices rising to $110–120/bbl in the base case, with the risk skew surrounding current prices tilted to the upside. Our bull case scenario (multiple paths to get there) is for Brent prices to reach $150/bbl, and for ‘all-in’ crude and product prices reaching as high as $180–200/bbl by mid-year ." Over £1.3bn missing at failed lender. #MFS investigated over ‘very serious’ fraud claims #GOLD : Question: Who sells their gold in such a macro environment? Answer: Anyone who needs liquidity to make ends meet. For example, the Gulf states, whose economy is now existentially threatened by the war This war is the end of the empire. "If Iran holds out, if Iran achieves its objectives, well, it's in effect the end of, the American empire." French intellectual Emmanuel Todd says it's not Russia winning, it's the West losing. All self inflicted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said the quiet part out loud -- and these 8 words are roiling Wall Street Exclusive-US Weighs Military Reinforcements as Iran War Enters Possible New Phase Iran inflicts ‘extensive damage’ on site of world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar Iran conflict turns shipping market into ‘wild west’ "The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense." Israel Iran War Iran May Allow Oil Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz, But There's A China Catch Israel destroys river bridges in southern Lebanon why...humm Private credit’s investor exodus spreads to consumer loans Private credit jitters ripple to funds with consumer loan holdings - InvestmentNews JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand THE ISLANDER on X: "🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Circa 27% percent of the world’s maritime crude oil trade moves through that strait. Iran https://t.co/NnCV5gxxrP " / X Lenders warn collapsed UK ‘shadow bank’ has £1.3bn hole Negligible Capital on X: "Private credit’s investor exodus is spreading to consumer loans, according to WSJ Interval fund Stone Ridge Asset Management, which holds consumer loans made by $XYZ and $AFRM are apparently under stress due to redemption requests Stone Ridge honoring 11% redemption requests https://t.co/V0lotMcP1P " / X Brian Sozzi on X: "🤔Citi's "two scenarios" for the US war on Iran: First Scenario "Over the next several weeks, the Administration’s appetite for the conflict diminishes and the United States pulls out, declaring the operations a resounding success.  As the US pulls out, the Iranian regime takes" / X

Markets : The Trump team intends to deploy troops to the shores of Iran for "sea control" on Kharg Island.... . Brent drops, Iraq agreed with Kurdistan to resume oil exports through a pipeline in the semi-autonomous region, a boost for OPEC’s second-largest producer after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced output cuts, the shipments will resume on Wednesday at 10 a.m. local time, the Kurdish Rudaw news service reported, citing Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani, Kurdistan’s government confirmed the resumption in a statement, US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever, the Bypass fails: UAE slashes Oil prod by 50% as Fujairah shuts down, leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy (that’s sunk to 60), #KRE below 200dma, U.S mortgage rates surge to 6.86% — highest level since last Nov, Artificial intelligence is making the world more unpredictable, Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China, Six months before the Trump admin began bombing Iran, the Department of State fired its oil and gas experts (shocking..) >>> Eq markets 'want' to squeeze higher, lower vols, lower crude should help shake short-term positioning in long crude, long usd, long vols, short equity... #JPY Japan wage talks point to 5% hike for third straight year. Increase would mark first such streak in 35 years, pending final tallies One theory is that Trump may have genuinely believed (wrongly) that winning in Iran would give him a leg-up on China in the negotiations, and he's delaying the trip because it went the opposite way and he'd be negotiating - from his standpoint - from a position of weakness... #miscalculated #badlyadvised #randomdecision In BofA's latest fund manager survey, cash levels jumped from 3.4% last month to 4.3% in March, the biggest increase since the pandemic, "Global growth optimism slumps to net 7% from 39%, inflation expectations jump to net 45% from 9%, rate cut optimism lowest since Feb'23; but no one pricing in recession:" Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling, the first of many ?... KKR Co-CEO: “The largest 100 U.S. companies in the United States have seen their margins expand materially in the last 5 years, 14% to 19%. The next 1,400 companies have had their margins flat and are working to stay even.“ Fed Meeting Begins as Iran War Complicates the Path for Interest Rate Cuts Iran war: What happens if Trump pushes to seize Kharg Island Trump struggles to build coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid Iran war No wonder when you spent best part of year telling them all how useless they were... Iran launces strikes on Israel, U.S. assets after Larijani is killed US drops 5,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs on Iran missile sites near Strait of Hormuz: What is it - CNBC TV18 Dubai Abu Dhabi News LIVE: Dubai Intercepts Iranian Missiles; UAE Says Its Air Defences Dealing With Missile Threat - News18 Iran-US war: Missiles shot down over Dubai Macron: France will never join operations to open the Strait of Hormuz | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Iran war: Germany's Merz distances himself from Trump Trump-Xi meeting may be postponed: Beijing denies 'false reports', says delay not linked to Strait of Hormuz issue Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises - NOTUS — News of the United States ABSOLUTELY top planning ! China is not going to bail Trump out Malaysia becomes first country to declare US trade deal 'null and void' after Supreme Court tariff ruling Malaysie the first of many more to come ?... Inside San Francisco’s new AI school: is this the future of US education? | AI (artificial intelligence) | The Guardian Nvidia restarts manufacturing of AI chips for China Investors underestimating AI, says Oaktree's Howard Marks Top Apollo executive sounds off on 'arrogance' in private markets "Asked what kind of recovery rates he anticipates on a private-credit loan to a generic small or midsize “Joe Software Company,” Zito said: “Joe Software Company, if he’s in the wrong place, I think is going to recover somewhere between 20 and 40 cents.” Shadow bank collapse floods London with luxury properties Reeves’ ambitious growth rhetoric clashes with reality Illiquid Insights on X: "Competition in direct lending has inflated EBITDA addbacks. 5.0x leverage today is very different from a decade ago. https://t.co/4dZxiFRLs1 " / X Illiquid Insights on X: "1L leveraged loans used to recover ~80 cents in a bankruptcy. That’s sunk to 60. Weaker docs and less junior debt are squeezing recoveries. https://t.co/wOFFDuorcj " / X Why no one wants to buy a flat in London Not everything ever goes up in price, whoever taught this to people.. maybe a little naiver to believe this too... the real issue is 'service charge ...and taxes'...which have become quite ridiculous in parts of London.. >> END leasehold !!

Markets have so far focused more on the inflationary effects of the oil price move up - shock (and other commods) rather than the risks to global growth from it, will fertilizer get there in time in variosu parts of the world to avoid 'food infl by Xmas', RBA hiked 25bps, #NVDA 's $1trn Ai forecast, WSJ- The Fed keeps getting hit with new shocks in its yearslong inflation fight, Mr Market 'feels' some sort of Trump deal is coming, for years Mr Market always had a simple strategy, as governments kicked the problem down the road, printed money, and told the public everything was fine (trillion usd question now..is this still the case ? private credit, Middle East, HUGE defense build up & spending, Ukraine-Russia, Taiwan.. and a global economy likely to be hit fairly hard from all these dislocations.., stagflation risk .. >>> so use short-covering rally in equity to lighten up on risk/rotate/watchout risk of stagflation, USD should resume it's downside move (De-dollarization etc, U.S. isolated geopolitically and perhaps economically, peak BigTechs etc), pick up hard assets on dips.. Geopolitics : Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack, BA flights (and other airlines) to Dubai cancelled till summer, Trump asked to delay Xi visit at end of the month , will have ago a Cuba soon, Iranian oil tankers going through Hormuz, plenty of reports that Netanyahu and some of his top security leadership are dead (TBC), Iran war begets fertilizer and other supply cost worries for US farmers French General Yakovleff: “The U.S. asks us for help and wants us to share the cost of their fiascos. Joining Trump’s coalition today is like buying a ticket to dinner and dancing on the Titanic the evening after it hit the iceberg.” Qatari advisor Hamad bin Jassim said: “The Gulf states warned Donald Trump that the war would lead to disaster, yet it erupted without calculations or a Plan B. Iran will not surrender to the U.S. and Israel, and it will engage in a war of attrition affecting everyone. Iran, however, has nothing to lose.” Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy (thread), Axios: Iranians will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until they get a permanent peace deal, even if Trump TACO's. Privately, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials believe the crisis could continue for the next six months Yesterday........ Trump has started praising Iran : “I’m dealing with very smart players. These are smart people. They don’t get there otherwise. You know who you’re dealing with. High-level intellect. High ,very high-IQ people.”....he also said... “IRAN is a nation of…GREAT POWER… TREMENDOUS POWER” “No one expected them to attack the gulf states. We were shocked” He's getting desperate for a deal of some sorts.. (1) Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy Iran-US war latest: US embassy in Iraq attacked while Trump lashes out at UK after Nato rejects Strait of Hormuz demand | The Independent Fujairah oil terminal attack - Oil & Gas Middle East Australia central bank hikes rates to a near 1-year high as Iran war raises inflation risks Iran war begets fertilizer and other supply cost worries for US farmers ''' India needs urea by May, U.S Corn belt need urea by mid~Apr, Australia needs by June. Miss those windows and u have massive yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in 6 months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas''' The Fed keeps getting hit with new shocks in its yearslong inflation fight Shah gas field ablaze after Iranian drone strike as Gulf energy war widens - The Economic Times British Airways cancels UAE flights amid MidEast travel chaos Trump: U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war Trump says he thinks he will have the 'honor' of 'taking Cuba' U.S. allows Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent Naval escorts will not guarantee safe passage through Strait of Hormuz, says IMO chief What’s behind Nvidia’s new $1 trillion AI forecast? Jensen Huang lays out the next wave Julius-Bär-CEO Bollinger erhält 24 Mio. Fr. Brian Sozzi on X: "Why Kharg Island is so important. Explained (v/JP Morgan): "Much of Iran’s mainland coast along the Persian Gulf is shallow and silty, meaning fully loaded VLCC supertankers, which require 65-82 feet of draft when fully loaded, would have difficulty approaching without very https://t.co/sbU3gsE0ou " / X Liz Webster on X: "🔥 2008 Donald Trump would impeach 2026 Trump. Watch 👀 this clip. 2008: Trump says any president who invades the Middle East under false pretences should be impeached. 2026: The U.S. is escalating another war in the Middle East with no clear objective. https://t.co/K8M76IJDTm " / X Nach grossem Migrations-Weekend: UBS vor Abgangswelle – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets : US/Iran ceasefire before Trump meets Xi in China ? (most probably the aim..).., All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500, and credit woes (financials, Blackrock etc down 20-30pct YTD too), it's not about crude oil only!, Bahrain cuts output at world's top aluminium smelter, Outflows from US financial stock funds are breaking records, according to Bank of America, Grace period over for UBS (CHF 10bn will be needed by 2027) >>> nothing like a disastrous war to make an U.S president realize the value of multilateralism?.. ? , Trump’s best move right now might be to declare victory, stop fighting start/support negotiations to open the strait of Hormuz, little or no confidence this can happen, but other options look much worse !! >>> overall equity markets 'want' to short cover on some good news such as 'war is over, Trump won', while they may rally short-term, credit wounds are huge, the ME-DUBAI financial losses will be enormous, an thus potential future ME investments in the U.S (mainly) and elsewhere may be cancelled or at least renegotiated.. Crude, WTI is still above $100...and that IS an expensive problem for the global economy, together with all the other 'commodity' issues, incl LNG Dubai halted flights at its main airport after a drone caused a fire at a nearby fuel tank. Donald Trump demanded other countries help secure passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to disrupt the region’s energy markets. Trump said his planned summit with Xi Jinping may be delayed if Beijing doesn’t assist in unblocking Hormuz, Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran/FT, IRGC warned major U.S. corporations in region to evacuate (U.S military bases, then the Strait of Hormuz, and now U.S corporations..some kind of guerilla warfare on global scale), Massive coverup happening right now. Israel has turned off public satellites to hide the apocalyptic damage, one possible outcome..: Iran’s military is devastated. Regime survives. The Strait stays closed until both sides find a face-saving off-ramp. Trump declares victory. Khamenei declares resistance. Oil drops. Nuclear program set back. We’ll be back here in 10 years... The US military is terrified of Iran's asymmetric warfare . General Anderson admits Iran has "enormous" capabilities, citing drone swarms and suicide speedboats that could sink US warships just like the USS Cole. "Buckle up, because this is going to get worse." Some kind of doom loop. .US has entered the Doom Loop; meaning the economic, social, geopolitical & monetary problems are too big & too time consuming to solve compared to the scale & rate they are building up... CNBC on new inflation numbers: "It shows that even before the war, there's some heat especially when it comes to services inflation, and that's going to be ultimately the message to the Fed" Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine. Flood of redemptions threatens to stall one of Wall Street’s most important sources of growth >>> UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%. That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008 Israel says it still has thousands of targets in Iran, as Trump and Starmer discuss Strait of Hormuz - follow live - BBC News Rumours of Netanyahu’s death, AI-generated video proven false amid Israel-Iran war Iran Israel War Live Updates: School Hit in Iran’s Khomein; Airstrike Reported Near Chabahar | Times Now US Israel Iran war: Dubai int'l airport gradually resumes flight ops, Emirates likely to resume limited flights Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine Consumer sentiment hits lowest reading of the year in early March amid Middle East war Will Dubai’s $250B property market survive the Middle-East conflict? Goldman Sachs on the Gulf: Qatar and Kuwait could each see their GDP contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through April, resulting in a two-month halt of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would fare better given their ability to re-route oil flows away from critical Hormuz waterway, but would still likely see GDP drop by about 3% and 5%. Bahrain starts output cuts at world's top aluminum smelter The Jones Act: Can A Waiver Slow Surging Gasoline Prices? Jeffrey P. Snider on X: "BREAKING: Now It's Wells Fargo AND Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank's stock is down 30% since January. Wells Fargo is following the same path. These aren't small crypto lenders or obscure hedge funds. These are global systemically important banks, and they're getting sold off for" / X Lark Davis on X: "𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗸. 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲. 𝗝𝗣 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗹𝗲𝘆. All blocked or capped withdrawals from their private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is not a rumour. It's in the filings. In 2007, the same thing happened with mortgage funds. We know how https://t.co/xtJAFcomwo " / X Where Switzerland stands on the Iran war - SWI swissinfo.ch Keller-Sutter zeigt Kelleher-Ermotti den Meister – Inside Paradeplatz Italy explores nuclear return after 40 years as energy costs hit - The Japan Times The US Navy decommissioned Middle East minesweepers last year. Here’s what they did.

Donald Trump and Iran’s leader traded barbs, with the US president saying stopping Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons matters more than the cost of oil. Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed . Benjamin Netanyahu said he cannot guarantee regime change in Iran without an internal uprising. (BBG), Trump says he thinks Iran's new supreme leader is alive but 'damaged'. (Reuters), US has further eased Russian sanctions, allowing ALL countries (and not just India) to buy Russian oil already loaded by March 12, WSJ >>> T his is nightmare for fuel price : JPMORGAN: "If the US cannot achieve a short-term victory, it seems likely that it will be forced to attempt a ground war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If so, this could transform into a multiyear war" , 'diesel shortages and NatGas shortages in some places already', ..Iran is taking out $1.2 billion US radar systems and hitting targets in Jordan and Bahrain with pinpoint accuracy. Experts admit they are likely receiving direct targeting intelligence from Russia and a massive Chinese electronic warfare vessel off the coast. Markets : Let's face it, the U.S (big techs etc etc) has always depended MASSIVELY on Gulf Nations investing in America (IF this has to stop and/or simply be decreased for food security say, there would be MASSIVE consequences in the U.S for long-term valuations..).... , Private credit fund gates so far this month: Blue Owl → BlackRock → HPS → Cliffwater → Morgan Stanley, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years, Honda slumps to first annual loss since going public in the 1950s (whole sector been in big trouble), VERY expensive war, crude up, shipping costs up, supply chain tightening, bond yields rising (in a huge govt debt pile..), hidden credit stress building in private credit world, western countries facing a rising funding needs competing with a faster EMG world, tough place to be, hard to see this ending without more printing of 'fiat issuance' over time.. >> further rotation going, though much under pressure in eq world, 10's UST yields 4.28% alarm bells.. (the longer it goes on, the worst it gets fiscally in US and many others..), USD 'risk-off bid', could drag us back to 1.10 EURUSD, SPX 6K, again duration of conflict is ALL that matters, Hormuz etc.. The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming (higher inflation & expected fiscal expansion due to oil crisis..), Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time, we have -3- of them at the same time... US, China officials to meet in Paris on March 15-16, before Trump-Xi summit Deutsche Bank flags a US$30 bil exposure to private credit IMF's former economist warns Governments around world don't have the fiscal capacity needed to respond to any economic downturn caused by an OIL SHOCK (Iran knows...), this is clearly not great, but obvious, watch bonds/duration ... Damn if you do, damn if you don’t: The U.S. and Israel face two bad options when it comes to Iran (Thread) Amazon sold $37bn in debt on Tue, for the 4th largest corporate bond sale of all time And so it starts (they won't be the last..!), Denmark’s Energy Minister urged people to reduce fuel use amid the oil shock from the Iran war, saying: “Please, please, please — if you do not need to drive, do not do so.” U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz when possible, Bessent says Iran’s leader says Strait of Hormuz should stay closed By Investing.com US eases Russia oil sanctions as Iran war pushes up energy prices Why Gulf security is critical to global security - Atlantic Council Half of Thailand’s fishing fleet may stay in port due to diesel shortage, rising fuel prices US has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran war Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy on X: "Why would U.S. intervention in oil futures be a “biblical disaster”? Because oil futures aren’t just a casino for traders. They are the pricing engine for the global energy system. Airlines use it to lock fuel costs. Shipping companies hedge diesel. Refiners hedge crude. Oil" / X Not going to happen..unless equity markets have a 'mini collapse' - perhaps Trump demands Powell cut rates as Iran conflict raises energy prices | Fox Business How Does the United States’ Fiscal Position Compare to Other Countries’? Badly.. Honda slumps to first annual loss since going public in the 1950s Deutsche Bank flags a US$30 bil exposure to private credit Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش on X: "Damn if you do, damn if you don’t: The U.S. and Israel face two bad options when it comes to Iran. 1. U.S. intelligence reportedly believes the Iranian regime remains stable. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Islamic Republic is built on institutions designed to survive" / X President Trump is "enthusiastic" about continuing the war in Iran for at least another 3-4 weeks even as oil prices rebound, per Axios. Details include: 1. Following a G7 call, France's President Macron said "no one can tell what Donald Trump wants from this war" 2. US and Israel have not secured the 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that Iran holds 3. US and Israel reportedly "do not entirely agree on what winning looks like" 4. "We don't want to leave early, do we? We gotta finish the job, right," Trump said Charlie Robertson on X: "Actually the most bullish piece I’ve read on why Iran will unblock the Straits of Hormuz when the Israel/US attack ends. They have succeeded in proving they can cause very significant global disruption if Israel and the US attacks again. They now have a credible deterrent" / X Australia to release nearly 20% of fuel stockpile as Bowen insists country ‘nowhere near’ running out | Business | The Guardian Adobe stock drops after CEO Narayen announces he will step down after 18 years Meta Platforms stalls work on Persian Gulf cable project amid Iran war: Bloomberg | Seeking Alpha

Markets : ALL outcome for markets are a function of time !! NO-ONE really knows how long the IRGC allows this to continue... (Trump of course wants-needs it to stop soon..), if it goes on and on, at some point it may go pretty wrong (credit is DEFO stirring the next shoe to drop, offshore USDollars in demand, cross currency basis on the move etc..), Oil tops $100 after 6 ships, including oil tankers are attacked on Gulf shipping, as mentioned, G7 release of crude reserve are quite useless in short-term, in fact it's more psychological than anything else, the war is not even over, he has to create another storm : The 16 US trading partners hit by Trump's '301' probes >>> DID Mr Market think Iran was joking around when they said the strait is and will remain close?......seems Iran is at war with the stock markets, oil prices, consumer inflation etc..not necessarily to inflict casualties...(U.S infrastructure hit VERY hard, 30years of build-up in the Middle-East and much destroyed in 10days... risk is WTI stays $85+ for rest of the year=inflation higher=no cuts=big trouble for anything leveraged on credit (take Salesforce example yesterday, irresponsible madness 'borrow more for share-buybacks').., given all the above, SPX back to 6000 area would not be too shocking...USD stays firm(er).. Read a few of those recently “Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests''...hum JPM-Kalanovic : To hedge against Oil shock and slowdown, one can short crowded AI cyclicals - momentum names that have not been impacted yet (but will be) such as $EWY   $SNDK   $WDC   $MU A "multitude" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and "retains control of the Iranian public," said one of the sources #Cliffwater : another... A $33,000,000,000 private credit fund just told investors: "You can't have your money back.".. #credit #liquidity or lack of.. Grundlach : A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007...yeps.. JP Morgan said it will likely (my interpretation) be demanding more collateral for their loans to Private Credit. That means JP Morgan believes the collateral values are down from the loan origination date Dubai, Abu Dhabi, UAE Updates: UNSC Demands Iran Stop Attacks On Gulf Nations; Saudi Arabia, UAE Intercept Missiles - News18 Pretty insane action, CHINA not happy apparently.. NoLimit on X: "🚨 THE WAR JUST CROSSED ANOTHER LINE: Here’s everything from the last 24 hours. – Iran has laid approximately A DOZEN MINES in the Strait of Hormuz. CNN confirmed it. This is a massive escalation – The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait in response – IRGC" / X ‘Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production at Ras Laffan has taken a third of global helium supply offline, threatening chip manufacturing, Bloomberg Economics said’ Factbox-The 16 US trading partners hit by Trump's '301' probes US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India Trump Taps Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Response to Iran Shipping Attacks | OilPrice.com Market had already anticipated this with the price drop to 85-90 WTI... that is NOT the way to surprise markets and get best outcome/reaction... in fact how Trump does.. is pathetic.. Not winning.. again BIG ! JPMorgan marks down software-linked private credit loans: report Further cracks appearing...!! Trump Touts Oil Supply Moves, Vows to Finish the Job in Iran Ukraine war latest: Russia blames UK for Storm Shadow strike on military plant, threatens 'new level' escalation U.S. Intelligence Says Iran Government Is Not At Risk Of Collapse, Say Sources | HuffPost Latest News $3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours Cliffwater $33 Billion Private Credit Fund Redemptions Reach 14% Salesforce Eyes Record $25B Debt Sale to Supercharge Buybacks - Forex News by FX Leaders Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador was ‘weirdly rushed’, Starmer aide warned Water takeovers to be referred to UK government for national security screening Interpol jagt Moretti und Audemars Piguet-Erbe – Inside Paradeplatz