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AI peak, #ORCL pure monetization problem / K economy / Eq rotation / PLAT / BoJ key ! / Trump popularity 🔽🔽

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • 8 minutes ago
  • 4 min read
ree

  • BoE to cut, ECB on hold, BoJ tom morning (much more important for risk overall)

  • First Micron exited their Crucial consumer-facing memory business, then we heard Samsung may stop selling SSDs, now there's news that Nvidia may reduce their RTX 50 production by up to 40% next year, Blue Owl capital walks away from ORCL's ä10bn data center plan, and ...Bernie now wants a moratorium on construction of data centers..

  • Markets : AI names down, oil stocks up on US/VEN conflict and under-owned, Trump promises 'warrior checks' (unlikely..), Dems win blow out vote in Kentucky (Trump's popularity plummeting), “BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT” — Jack Smith calmly destroys Trump’s “witch hunt” fantasy in testimony before Congress, Oracle is pure 'monetization problem'...(has lost half its value in 3mos..) which could turn out to be 'THE' issue for the whole Ai trade, .or saying that the market quietly forcing one question onto every balance sheet: show me the cash >>> equity markets rotation continues, Ai/datacenters/techs/non profitable thematic names down...while oil, metals, commodity realated / quality names do well... precious metals, oh my.. what a marvellous ride in 2025.. ! related stocks struggling though #SILJ etc.. wild times ahead no doubt..

  • Geopolitics : China and Russia Reaffirm Support for Iran and Venezuela Amid U.S. Pressure Recent developments show China and Russia continuing to voice strong diplomatic backing for Iran and Venezuela in the face of escalating U.S. sanctions and military actions,

  • Martin Wolf: The greatest threat to Europe is no longer external authoritarianism alone, but the collapse of the Atlantic moral alliance and unless Europe (and the UK) re-anchor themselves fast, they will be picked apart from within

  • U.S unemployment rate (outside covid) is at its highest level in over 8 years. The labor market is deteriorating particularly quickly for young workers, who are facing a 10.6% unemployment rate

  • German Chancellor Metz announces FORCED mobilization if Germany fails to gather volunteers for the military to counter Russia


Everyone is on the K shaped economy / divide >>> IMHO it's bigger and more like a generational divide.. endless deficits, NIRP, ZIRP, endless QE and easy monetary policy have supported asset prices, real estate, single family homee and of course equity prices (who's rally been long equity..? the 10pct..).. now we face the consequences...wiht higher inflation, higher taxes, crazy more volatile geopolitics, affordability issues etc...whihc mostly falls on the younger generation.., many have the right to be pissed off, trouble is no easy asnwer and solution (unless very dratic..)..


Market now says show me the money first..


But, listetning to the FOMC... Fed said they see stagflation as the biggest risk in 2026 FOMC members foresee.... rising inflation together with rising unemployment



Republicans IMMEDIATELY regret calling in Jack Smith to testify as he says on the record he has absolutely ZERO regrets and would even CHARGE TRUMP AGAIN if he could, suggested if Trump didn’t want to be indicted, he shouldn’t have broken the law


Senate passes defense bill that defies Trump and forces sharing of boat strike videos

The president is still expected to sign the legislation, which now heads to his desk.




Trump wants to spend over $2.5 trillion sending 1.45 million $1,776 checks to members of the military. $1,776 won’t even cover their additional household spending because of Trump’s tariffs


Seems like a big security failure by ASML and dutch intel services















 
 
 
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