BoAFM survey, cash levels lowest ever! / U.S-Venezuela crisis / BoE cuts tom / Silver, XPT.. / VW / FED injects $4bn
- rmd005
- Dec 17, 2025
- 4 min read
Markets : Crude on 4year lows, 4.6% unemployment rate in U.S has always signaled recession in the past 50years, Citadel's Griffin on Rep party and inflation (below), Portfolio managers' cash level drops to a record low 3.3%. Dec BofA FMS (all FM survey headlines below), the BoE WILL welcome softer inflation this morning (3.2% - cut tomorrow nailed on, and more to come in 2026), BoJ will hike rates to the highest level since 1995 on Friday, VW shuts down production at German plant (unheard of..), GOLD, SILVER, PLAT mainly and PALL rally unprecedented this year, what else!.. many miners, junior miners not really joined in the fun #SIL #SILJ etc >>> markets rallied off lows yesterday #QQQ when FED injected $4bn in MBSat 1:30 eastern time, let's see how goes into OpEx, Venezuela, BoJ hike and Epstein files release by end of the week, imho markets feel super heavy, FM survey shows managers are long (all-in basically, which is fine till it isn't), prepare, plan accordingly..would be very careful over next few weeks.. and going into early 2026
Trade : The US threatened to retaliate against EU companies, including Accenture, Siemens and Spotify in response to the bloc’s digital tax efforts,
Geopolitics : TAIWAN is a red line" - CHINA warns ISRAEL, US-VENEZUELA CRISIS: Donald Trump orders a blockade (a la Cuba missile crisis) of "all sanctioned oil tankers" going into and out of Venezuela. He claims some of the Venezuelan oil fields belong to America (bit of act of war, surely not coincidental with the Epstein files coming out on Friday...),
Public market price discovery can be BRUTAL...-FT
Goldman : Gold ETF's account for just 0.17% of private portfolios....
AI how good is it really ?...Only 15% of executives saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year according to Forrester. BCG found just 5% of executives saw widespread value from AI. Forrester predicts companies will delay about 25% of their planned AI spending in 2026 by a year
Citadel founder Ken Griffin says the Republican party is struggling with policies on tariffs and immigration that are fueling inflation during an interview with Dani Burger at the Conference de Paris
Mark on X: "ED STEER: "Throw Technical Analysis Out the Window" - Why This Silver Rally is Different. 📈 Silver's price acceleration is entering parabolic territory. Here’s how fast each $10 move has happened: ➡️ $20 to $30: 145 days ➡️ $30 to $40: 145 days ➡️ $40 to $50: 39 days ➡️ $50 to https://t.co/fUhgutacZL" / X
Milton Friedman Quotes on X: "Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.” “If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.” https://t.co/cvPpAfbL1b" / X
Global Surveillance on X: "BREAKING; "TAIWAN IS A RED LINE" - CHINA warns ISRAEL CHINESE Embassy in ISRAEL stated that the TAIWAN issue is a "red line that cannot be crossed" and urged Israel to "correct its erroneous actions". Beijing warned that continuing official or military contacts could severely https://t.co/b3Uuz8oRfZ" / X
Global Fund Manager Survey
The bullet points below provide more details on the latest survey results:
▪ In terms of global growth expectations, a net 18% of respondents expect a stronger economy over the next 12 months, compared with a net 3% the previous month.
▪ The FMS broad measure of sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations, further improved to 7.4 from 6.4 the previous month, the highest since July 2021.
▪ On inflation, a net 2% of respondents expect a higher global CPI in the next 12 months, compared with a net 2% who expected a lower CPI the previous month. Inflation expectations have come down sharply over the past few months given tariffs have not led to a sharp increase in consumer prices as some had feared.
▪ Equity allocation rose to a net 42% overweight from 34% overweight the previous month, the highest since December 2024. Current allocation is 0.6 standard deviations above the long-term average.
▪ Allocation to US equities rose to a net 6% overweight, vs. -6% underweight the previous month. Current allocation is 0.5 standard deviations above the long-term average.
▪ Allocation to Eurozone equities rose to a net 18% overweight vs. 9% overweight the previous month. Current allocation is in line with the long-term average.
▪ A net positive percentage of respondents are saying companies are overinvesting, which is unusual. However, the net percentage who believe so has fallen to 14% from 20% the previous month.
▪ Bond allocation fell to a net -29% underweight from -12% underweight the previous month. Current allocation is 0.4 standard deviations above the long-term average.
▪ Cash allocation fell to -11% underweight from -8% underweight the previous month. Current allocation is 2 standard deviations below the long-term average.
▪ Commodities allocation was net 18% overweight, compared with 17% overweight the previous month. Commodities allocation is the highest since September 2022 and 1.2 standard deviations above the long-term average.
▪ A net 53% of respondents believe the USD is overvalued, up from 45% the previous month.
▪ A net 34% of respondents believe gold is overvalued, up from 32% the previous month.
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