Site Search

ECB meeting : risk is Lagarde recognizes stronger U.S data on inflation, as a risk for europe and thus delaying what the market is looking for, namely a June cut guidance/confirmation USDollar takes another leg higher, kind dollar reigns, though precious metals hardly budged yesterday on higher UST yields (all week..) >>> tough job for BoJ, USDJPY at 153+ is highest since mid 1990, #USDCHF approaching our target of 0.9200, pretty key levels 1.07025 area #EURUSD (charts below) + #QQQ and #AAPL FED expectations shifted further after hot inflation data, #highfrolonger markets have 40bps priced in for 2024 now, reminded dot plots and guidance is 75bps (March meeting) and way down from 150bps priced in 4months ago >>>> CPI core services ex-housing (“supercore”) rose by 0.65% month/month in March … faster than prior month and among larger gains seen in post-pandemic period, must admit though, now 2y UST near 5% is VALUE! UST's had a miserable week, again, 'failed' auctions and of the largest move in 5s for over 10years (ugly 10's yesterday, 3bps tail - whatever the reasons) FOMC Minutes : “almost all saw it appropriate to cut this year”, and how the “Fed favours reducing monthly asset runoff pace by roughly half”, as expected broadly speaking Larry Summers : You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards Swiss banking plan leaves 'relieved' UBS out of immediate firing line. UBS could face higher capital rules under Swiss reforms A lot of unhappy foreign investors in Russia from ‘unfriendly’ countries yesterday after Putin signed a confiscation decree... in response to Western expropriations from 2022 to today.. “There will be no more Britons, Americans, and Dutch who own strategic industries in Russia. After freezing our assets.” Joe Biden warns of imminent 'significant attack' by Iran on Israel, as he vows US support is 'ironclad' ECB to Hold With First Cut Locked In for June: Decision Guide | Financial Post Atlanta Fed on X: "The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—increased 5.0% (on an annualized basis) in March, following a 4.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 4.5%. https://t.co/YeT8ffe4D5" / X (twitter.com) forget about the 2% goal, we are going to live in a world of 3% inflation and rates 4-5% #highfrolonger (which by the way, is a good world for solid quality businesses, but it will break a few weaker ones) Joe Biden warns of imminent 'significant attack' by Iran on Israel, as he vows US... - LBC Watch Copper to Rise 30% in Next 12 Months, BofA's Blanch Says - Bloomberg Bank of America says the copper supply crisis is here (msn.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "What is #gold's resilience telling us? In the last month, bullion trades up 7% while the dollar has gained 1.8%, 10-yr yields 45 bps and three rate cuts by Dec 2025 has been removed. Conclusion: buyers don't care about funding cost, but worry about geopolitics, an out of… https://t.co/j6M6wgWe2K" / X (twitter.com) Russia Seizes Over 650,000 Acres Of Farmland And Other Assets From Company With Ties To 'Unfriendly' Country (yahoo.com) Jamie Dimon Calls for Toughness Against China (finews.asia) UBS could face higher capital rules under Swiss reforms (investmentnews.com) Swiss banking plan leaves 'relieved' UBS out of immediate firing line | Reuters Lloyds to cut jobs in risk management as it was ‘blocker’ on transformation progress (msn.com) >>>> is this wise..!? UBS systems fail – Inside Paradeplatz Meta unveils new AI chip a day after Google and Intel (qz.com) Craig Shapiro on X: "Reminder. During the worse parts of Covid in 2020, the Fed increased the size of its Balance Sheet by about $3trn in the second quarter of 2020. Then it steadily increased its balance sheet further by an additional $2trn for the next 7 quarters. So when the Fed needs to add… https://t.co/DIl8l3BVy7" / X (twitter.com) Hot Inflation Print Blows Up Bond Trader’s Record Futures Wager - Bloomberg Could commodities be set for a long-awaited rebound? | The Market Online Researchers are quietly trying to cool down our planet - FOCUS online ‘A new abyss’: Gaza and the hundred years’ war on Palestine | Israel-Gaza war | The Guardian Opinion | Israel: Cease-Fire, Get Hostages, Leave Gaza, Rethink Everything - The New York Times (nytimes.com) interesting read Why UK services exports have continued to grow post-Brexit (cityam.com) QQQ bulls don't want index to trade below 17750 ! or else #AAPL those who shorted it in Jan when we talked together about it, might want to TP now, those with more patience, may well want to ...be patient #EURUSD - same message as above! together with our #USDCHF target of 0.9200 - here we are

U.S CPI up next, expected around 3.4%, markets don't need a new inflation lift-off, markets have about 60bps of FED Fund cuts priced in for 2024, earnings probably well received, Powell in mood of promising cuts in election year.. FOMC minutes later on + ECB tomorrow, where Christine will probably find a few excuses to be dovish too #GOLD is so back in vogue! UST Bond : 3y UST auction (weak) showed that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius threw his weight behind calls for reform of rules that restrict new borrowing by the federal government to help fund a radical overhaul of the nation’s armed forces, he aid the Bundeswehr’s financial needs can’t be met solely by reallocating money from elsewhere in the budget once a special fund worth €100 billion ($109 billion) is exhausted in 2027.... more spending A group of older Swiss women have won the first ever climate case victory in the European Court of Human Rights. The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves linked to climate change BoJ to consider raising inflation forecasts after results of recent wage negotiations More than a dozen retired four-star generals, admirals and other former military leaders filed an amicus brief with in the Supreme Court on Monday, arguing against former President Trump’s claims of immunity in his criminal cases New data on Moderna's cancer vaccine sends stock rising. The pharma company announced results of an early stage trail on Monday that suggests that its experimental treatment could be used for a variety of cancers Small business optimism hit an 11-year low as inflation fears persist, #highforlonger hurts weakest balance-sheets (something the Mag10 say don't have to worry too much about) Jan '24 contrarian trade update : Hang Seng China Index now up 20% from 2024 lows. Hang Seng China, HSI and MSCI China now at highest levels YTD, you are in a good position now! Billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice is asking creditors to agree to losses as the company’s embattled French telecommunications arm pushes to slash a debt burden of almost €25 billion ($27 billion) >> MS raised their Brent target price to $94 (from 90) EIA has global oil demand at 102.34mbpd, global oil supply at 102.10mbpd in March Currently, we're sitting at a record19.8% vacant at the national level," Moody's head of commercial real estate economics France : The Macron camp under high tension with a deficit still above 5% in 2024 Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Horrible 3y UST auct shows that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes -A 2bps tail, highest since Feb‘23, tells investors may be worried about sticky CPI -Btc 2.5 is well below‘23 avg of 2.7 -Indirects 60.3% below‘23 avg" / X (twitter.com) Le camp Macron sous haute tension avec un déficit encore supérieur à 5 % en 2024 | Les Echos Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears persist (qz.com) Yahoo Finance on X: ""Currently, we're sitting at 19.8% vacant at the national level," Moody's head of commercial real estate economics Thomas LaSalvia says on office vacancies. "This is a national high. The previous record was set in the late 80s, early 90s." https://t.co/DP4e7KNVBV" / X (twitter.com) Hong Kong seizes over $10 million worth of gold disguised as machine parts in record smuggling bust (msn.com) Gold is so back Costco selling up to $200 million in gold bars a month, Wells Fargo estimates (cnbc.com) China unveils measures to promote industrial equipment upgrades-Xinhua (news.cn) The Uranium Bull Market Is Just Getting Started | InvestorPlace Why Have Rate Hikes Not Done Anything? (theovershoot.co) Higher consumer spending has been financed primarily by more people working (at better jobs), for longer hours, at higher pay. German Defense Chief Pistorius Calls for Loosening of Debt Restrictions - Bloomberg X's AI chatbot Grok made up a fake trending headline about Iran attacking Israel | Mashable Madness, stop this guy...or else Elon Musk's ‘self-inflicted wounds’ and more from a new deposition (qz.com) Elon Musk promises ‘full data dump’ on Brazilian judge in X feud (qz.com) Moderna cancer vaccine results send stock up (qz.com) How Altice Can Push Its Creditors to Cut Billions of Debt: Q&A (yahoo.com) Bond hair cut coming Explainer: Why did Ecuador raid Mexico's Quito embassy? | Reuters European court rules human rights violated by climate inaction (bbc.com) Former top military officers push back on Trump immunity claim | The Hill #GDX gold miners - have hardly moved long-term

Commodities, copper, crude, gold, platinum etc firmer still Fed Funds futures now pointing to just -2- cuts in 2024, with chance of a July cut fading, a strong CPI will push rate cut expectations to Sep immediately tomorrow >> the argument for cuts is dissipating - no landing looking at NFP's ! au contraire, we continue to look for a #highforlonger scenario, markets will test BoJ with USDJPY 152+ Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trading company, has made more money in the last 3 years than during the past 30 years combined ($13bn revenues in 2023 alone..) The S&P 500 hasn't had a -2% day since February 21, 2023. "This is the 12th longest such streak since 1928:" Citi's Stuart Kaiser DB: "How can credit sell-off in a world where growth is strong & the Fed is dovish? The largest risk is the market doubting the Fed's ability to cut in 2025 & 2026....Even after last Friday's jobs report, we are still pricing more 2025 & 2026 cuts than at the start of this year" US will not accept Chinese imports decimating new industries, Yellen says (EV..) The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025. Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days Jamie Dimon warns inflation, interest rates may remain elevated, 'soft landing odds are 'lower' than markets believe'...indeed last NFP another +"300K...last 3 NFP were much higher in fact GOLDMAN: ".. Investors are concerned that recent management commentary from consumer facing companies suggests some signs of weakness. $COST missed consensus US sales estimates for the month of February. $LULU, $NKE, and $ULTA all recently issued disappointing forward guidance. Last month, $MCD CFO called out a 'challenging consumer environment' while this week $DRI missed on revs." [Kostin] Insider selling in the first quarter reached its highest level in over 3 years, with total insider sales nearing $25 billion, according to Smart Insider. India just reported record monthly imports of #silver A lot going in the world of #Gold #Gold miners and in Silver, just the beginning of higher vol in weeks and months to come China Gold-Buying Frenzy Sparks Chaos In ETFs | ZeroHedge IGWT Gold Compass | ingoldwetrust.report USD/JPY approaches the key 152.00 level with BoJ intervention looming (fxstreet.com) Hamas studies truce proposal six months into Gaza war (msn.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Persistent inflation may lead to interest rates of 8% or more, Jamie Dimon warns - MarketWatch Let's hope he is wrong, this would be some kind of Armageddon for many many buisinesses Jamie Dimon warns inflation, interest rates may remain elevated | Fox Business The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025. Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025… https://t.co/NKvt4m0O7Y" / X (twitter.com) Janet Yellen says tariffs are on the table to stop a 'China Shock' (qz.com) Trading house Vitol reports another bumper year of profit on higher gas trading volumes (msn.com) Tesla Goes to Trial Over Autopilot Crash That Killed Apple Engineer (businessinsider.com) No, Elon Musk is not our Henry Ford - by Ed Conway (substack.com) Billion-dollar money laundering case: Man who jumped off balcony gets 14 months' jail - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) BP expects rise in first-quarter upstream energy output | Reuters Inflation..., pushing folks to turn to stealing Cargo theft up 57% in 2023 vs. 2022, new CargoNet data shows (cnbc.com) In Photos: Total Solar Eclipse Dazzles Skywatchers Across North America (forbes.com) #XAGUSD could go a long way BRENT - looks like we are heading for 100bucks NASDAQ - all about US CPI and rates expectations for 2024 - down to 2now, do we go down to 1 cut ?

Our friends in America will be all watching later on! Week ahead : (NFP Friday still pretty strong all round), earnings season picking up in the U.S (banks mainly), ''signs'' of middle east tension easing, Yellen-China news to follow, U.S CPI and FOMC minutes pretty key on Wednesday, UST's had one of their worst weeks in 6months, all yields across board on highs YTD, GOLD, Silver making renewed pushed higher as we started the week China was a buyer of Gold for the 17th consecutive month even as prices soared to all-time highs >>> the rally in #XAUUSD is no a retail thing, retail implied allocations via ETF's remains very low, near bottom of range of last 10+ years, as price of gold breaks to new highs..big convergence that will sooner or later be looked at by mr market ME crisis, signs of progress ion truce talks, watch Brent for signs of tension cooling Yellen : “I have just concluded an extensive and productive two days of meetings in Guangzhou with Vice Premier He Lifeng of the People’s Republic of China. After significant discussion with my counterpart, I am pleased that we have agreed to launch two significant new initiatives that will advance the interests of American workers and firms and help protect U.S. national security Powell still expects Fed to lower rates this year as inflation follows a 'bumpy' path down to 2% - let's hear it int he minutes #USDJPY the BoJ is going to be tested by markets 152+, do they walk the walk, or just keep on talking, a little hard to stop USDJPY from going up on talk talk, while UST yields go up EV price war intensifies as China car makers battle for market share, this will take EU inflation down further than in the U.S (diff trade policies), EV car deflation coming German industrial production increased for a second month, underpinning hopes the economy is turning around China PBOC Buys Gold for 17th Month as Prices Hit Record (yahoo.com) EV price war intensifies as China car makers battle for market share (thedriven.io) Ford delays next-gen EV offerings as it pushes further into hybrids (yahoo.com) Statement from Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Announcement of New U.S.-China Initiatives Following Meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng of the People’s Republic of China | U.S. Department of the Treasury China says innovations, not subsidies, are powering EV edge as Yellen raises ‘overcapacity’ concerns (msn.com) Powell still expects Fed to lower rates this year as inflation follows a 'bumpy' path down to 2% (yahoo.com) Ukraine war: UN body urges restraint after Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant hit (bbc.com) UPDATE 1-Iran's Foreign Minister Continues Regional Tour With Syria (msn.com) Opinion | If A.I. Takes All Our Jobs, Will It Also Take Our Purpose? - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Don't buy eclipse glasses on Amazon, Temu, or eBay, experts say (qz.com) Is the Swiss-Tunisian migration partnership truly a ‘win-win' relationship?  - SWI swissinfo.ch Quite well The EU plot to ensnare Switzerland - spiked (spiked-online.com) Not again! Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 lost engine cover during takeoff, FAA investigating (cnbc.com) Japan's real wages fall for 23rd month in a row (cnbc.com) Swiss population grows at fastest rate since 1960s, spurred by Ukrainians - SWI swissinfo.ch #GOLD miners about to blow up (plenty of other ETF's - just an example) GBPCHF - setting up a decent move up!? Copper breaking up

Middle East crisis not going away, this geopolitics risk is probably way under-priced- big picture and one to think about (supply disruption, crude, energy etc) >>> you may get now regular friday question of 'who wants to hold risk into weekend' BLINKEN: "With regard to our policy in Gaza ... if we don’t see the changes that we need to see, there’ll be changes in our own policy." Fed Latest: Kashkari & Goolsbee floated possibility of no rate cuts in 2024 (2nd tier members for markets), markets were running out of steam, what really mattered after that was ME geopolitics, #Brent oil jumped over $90/bbl for 1st time since October as the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of escalating, #VIX, #ODTE crowd bought a lot of SPX puts, bonds bid, all within 10minutes, gradually, then suddenly, though for now equity have hardly move, noone should be surprised of a 5-10pct correction in some of the way overdone sectors (Techs, Ai, mag7, concentration of risk etc) Interview with Dr Thomas Hoenig was CEO of the Kansas City Fed, a voting member of the FOMC, and a Director of the FDIC - long but the guy was highly regarded -not a pretty picture Fed/U.S Treasury etc - well worth a listen - IMHO The world needs over 2x the current annual supply of several key minerals to meet global climate pledges by 2030:" MS. China dominates production of these minerals, presenting "a challenge to the United States as it seeks to meet its climate goals and de-risk from China Credit Suisse AT1: FINMA asks court not to show files to plaintiffs! Ford to delay all-electric SUV, truck to focus on offering hybrid vehicles across its line up by 2030 >> You can build 25 hybrids with the minerals that it takes to build 1 EV," says Celebrity Motor Car Company owner Tom Maoli CME raises Gold margins by 6.8% & Silver margins by 11.8% The Biden administration has faced accusations of double standards online after stating it does not support Taiwan's independence on the same day it announced Ukraine would join NATO SPX - time for a welcome correction - QQQ same and most of major indexes, together with a big rotation our of growthy stocks into enegry, quality, commods etc for Q2 Brent crude oil settles above $90 for first time since October (gulfbusiness.com) geopolitics and OPEC+ reaffirms supply cuts Israel to open aid routes to Gaza after Biden demands 'concrete steps' - BBC News Netanyahu threatens Iran, says Israel will defend itself - World - Dunya News Biden and Netanyahu call comes amid extreme mutual tensions and political pressure (msn.com) Credit Suisse AT1: FINMA asks court not to show files to plaintiffs - Antigua and Barbuda News ! this is quite a statement ! China’s Economy Is Bottoming. When Do Chinese Stocks and Commodities Become Buys? | InvestorPlace >>> back in January .. Joe Biden's administration just gave China 'the green light' to 'reunify' Taiwan (msn.com) https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1775809960636551651 .end of an era.. and not just talking about Janet :-) but china, trade relations, globalization, less foreign UST buying & the dreaded talks of de-dollarization.....in a word : most of it is inflationary, hence #highforlonger (not higher, just a higher plateau than many have been accustomed to last 15y ) in rates and inflation not heading back to 2% Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 According to French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, "Europe needs “re-balancing instruments” to better defend its economic interests and avoid being squeezed between US protectionism and Chinese interventionism." https://t.co/5z0QqgMYvi via @economics" / X (twitter.com) Politicians are great at coming with big headlines, sounds good, but how is what that matters, and they often fail to give any real solutions.. Copper Bulls Can See A Record Price Of $12,000/t (forbes.com) More on copper : Scott Willis on X: "Is the long awaited #copper shortage finally here? In the short term YES Contango = not enough copper today But what about the medium term? The answer...most definitely! Here are 10 charts to back it up🧵 https://t.co/8T6d3mdv96" / X (twitter.com) Ford to delay all-electric SUV to focus on hybrid vehicles (cnbc.com) Adam Taggart on X: "I know I'm biased, but this interview with former Fed exec Thomas Hoenig may be the most important one I've yet done Essential viewing for Thoughtful Money viewers, IMO Hard truths from someone who's been "in the room" at the power center" / X (twitter.com) Joe Lewis: British billionaire and Spurs owner spared jail time after pleading guilty in US to insider trading (msn.com) Rescue teams in Taiwan searching for family feared trapped in rockslide following earthquake (msn.com) SPX - too high too fast - time for a welcome correction Brent crude

#GOLD put simply, imho, central banks are/have been increasing their allocation to physical #XAU and reducing their allocation to #UST (allocation that may increase still but wont be reduced/changed for many years to come) >>> nobody can freeze the physical gold you have at home (sanctions won't work..), short-term overbought now but who will dare shorting it ? Powell is desperately trying to justify a cut, putting aside any other macro reasoning, there is no specific economic reason for his views (can't hike as there is FAR too much debt..hiking would send markets into turmoil, and he is afraid the markets are beginning to notice !)... >>> The market is interpreting that the Fed is willing to accommodate higher inflation as it cuts rates, the markets wants to hear dovish speeches, ignore the rest #EURCHF #CHF weaker overall to continue - Swiss inflation much lower again, to 1.0% in March. The consensus was expecting a rebound to 1.3% driven by electricity and rents Fed governor Adriana Kugler's dovish comments that the #Fed is still on track to cut rates this year, despite clear evidence that #inflation is accelerating, (Powell thinking..) Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability, Dallas FED thinks differently.. The U.S Department of Energy has canceled its latest tender for crude oil for the replenishment of the strategic petroleum reserve after oil prices moved higher than the DoE is comfortable with >>> what were they thinking when crude was $70 for months...! Japan is ready to intervene in the currency market at any time should the yen weaken beyond its current range, given the extent of heightened warnings from key officials, according to the nation’s former currency chief >>> how ready?.. McKinsey will pay some of its employees to not work for nine months and look for another job - read that again Australia watchdog is pushing to flush out funds’ greenwashing, Vanguard misled green bond fund investors..was all clear to see years ago, just a marketing craze it was ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza JPMorgan cuts its price target on Tesla stock, now sees 32% downside, after delivery miss highlights growth concerns. Amazon cuts hundreds of jobs in cloud computing unit. APPL explores Robots as next big thing, after car project got nowhere.. Billionaire Steve Cohen said he expects that more businesses will move to a four-day work week, one of the reasons he’s made investments in golf GS is very bullish copper. They see it at $12k/t by 2025, a +50% upside from current levels. "Decarbonisation, EV & solar demand, AI driven electrification and power demand surge are driving more demand for copper in a tight supply backdrop" The Stock Market is in a bubble and the AI craze is getting out of hand warns SocGen Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability - Dallasfed.org >>> interesting timing to come out with this article ? Powell's speech Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board Fed’s Kugler expects inflation to slow further, result in rate cuts ‘this year’ - MarketWatch Central banks bolster gold reserves further in February, albeit at a slower pace | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council Bitcoin ETFs are not driving gold ETF outflows, says JPMorgan (ft.com) As for central banks, in some cases at least, demand for physical gold is driven by a hunger for assets that are not at risk of Western sanctions or the mercy of custodial arrangements that Western governments can control. Daily Chartbook on X: ""No more deep value equity investors left." - BofA Savita https://t.co/w8OqlyNOvr" / X (twitter.com) >>>> CONTRARIAN time coming !!! you know what to do Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarm - The Japan Times >>> got to walk the walk, if you really mean it, otherwise Mr Market won't care a bit, worse will challenge you BoJ US Cancels Latest Oil Reserve Refill Plan Amid High Prices (yahoo.com) Biden not such a good crude trader anymore! Michael Maloney on X: "The SILVER BREAKOUT with @TaviCosta, going live in a few mins here: https://t.co/HfeLt5iCZe" / X (twitter.com) if youwant tobe really bullish #XAG #XAGUSD Tesla bear says Elon Musk's EV maker will 'go bust,' stock worth $14 (cnbc.com) Oh dear, sounds a bit harsh ! and anyway.. Ouch JPMorgan cuts its price target on Tesla stock, now sees 32% downside, after delivery miss highlights growth concerns (msn.com) ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza (972mag.com) Javier Milei pledges roadmap for UK to hand over Falklands (msn.com) Exclusive: Trump Media saved in 2022 by Russian-American under criminal investigation | Donald Trump | The Guardian Business Bankruptcies Jump as Slow Wave of Failure Speeds Up - Bloomberg McKinsey pays its employees to look for other jobs (qz.com) Amazon Web Services lays off several hundred tech, sales staff (yahoo.com) Intel and many others too lately Taiwan earthquake stopped TSMC chipmaking (qz.com) The weight loss drug Zepbound is officially in a shortage (qz.com) Australia Court Rules Vanguard Misled Bond Fund Investors With Greenwashing - Bloomberg Apple Exploring 'Mobile Robot' That 'Follows Users Around Their Homes' - MacRumors Generational Luck in the Housing Market - A Wealth of Common Sense Boomers had 70s inflation/20% mortgage rates Gen X had dot-com/GFC lost decade Millennials had the terrible post-GFC labor market Gen Z has expensive housing & expensive financing Every generation goes thru something Copper up and away EURCHF - up and away - GBPCHF, USDCHF etc

S&P Global Ratings has upgraded #Saxo's long-term issuer credit rating to 'A-' from 'BBB' - details below - great news for investors and clients #NEM (and other gold, silver miners) one of the most incredible of all commodity-equity disconnections/divergence - charts below, #Silver ( #xagusd the oldest money in the world) even outpaced made-up internet money yesterday #SILJ catch up could be quite something (chart) >>> surging precious metals, crude + rising UST yields is certainly different! and possibly a dangerous combination for markets, reinforces value over growth - the longer inflation/rates remain on a higher plateau, the higher probability markets see a huge shift of capital towards #VALUE #TSLA Q1 deliveries “fell so far short .. that it was its biggest miss ever.” #UST10y yields highest since November, data overall remains strong (stronger ISM) + spending & higher debt out of control.. >>> high(er) for longer... Less than 50% probability of June rate cut following Strong Factory and other data For all its faults, democracy is still better than autocracy. All the evidence shows that despotism cannot consistently deliver the economic goods for developing countries #Mag7 now accounts for 30% of the SPX, highest concentration in history NATO proposes a $100 billion, five year fund to support Ukraine, war bonds coming! Mongolia's central bank purchases 3.4 tons of #gold in Q1...another 1 buying.. Americans spent over $113 billion on lottery tickets last year, more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - combined! The Medicare payment decision that rocked health insurer stocks Tuesday sets up a high-stakes election year gamble for the Biden administration as seniors could end up seeing cutbacks in their health plans right before Election Day #Copper price rallies amid rising optimism on Chinese economic outlook Biden and Xi Jinping hold phone call ahead of Yellen’s trip to China 7.2 magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan, semiconductor delays coming, could be weeks for some factories to come back online Warren Buffett Indicator (total value of all publicly traded stocks/GDP ratio) is at its 2nd highest level in history and much higher than during the Dotcom Bubble and the GFC S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its long-term issuer credit rating to 'A-' from 'BBB'. This credit rating upgrade reflects Saxo Bank’s strengthened financial profile, including its efforts to increase its resolvability and enhance its subordinated debt buffers in alignment with regulatory requirements for systemically important institutions (SIFIs) Investor Relations | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Market Reacts: Less Than 50% Probability of June Rate Cut Following Strong Factory Data (msn.com) Fed’s Mester and Daly expect 3 rate cuts this year (msn.com) Big Oil Is Beating Big Tech as Eyes Turn to Crucial OPEC Meeting (yahoo.com) Copper price rallies amid rising optimism on Chinese economic outlook - MINING.COM Lithium trading hits record on CME as funds seize budding market - MINING.COM Israel airstrike on Iran consulate in Syria raises oil prices (qz.com) CNBC on X: "The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days. https://t.co/q4sbaaaPCA https://t.co/T7PFcgg1Oh" / X (twitter.com) Out of control...no wonder #GOLD is bid (and silver, crude, PLAT etc..) US Government Debt Risk: A Million Simulations Show Danger Ahead - Bloomberg Biden and Xi Jinping hold phone call ahead of Yellen's trip to China (cnbc.com) Steve Eisman says the Fed shouldn't cut rates (cnbc.com) Health Insurers Tumble as Final Medicare Advantage Rates Disappoint (yahoo.com) Can't afford it anymore, forcing prices lower....hum CVS, Humana, other health stocks hit by lower Medicare rates (qz.com) Barchart on X: "Warren Buffett Indicator (total value of all publicly traded stocks/GDP ratio) is at its 2nd highest level in history and much higher than during the Dotcom Bubble and the GFC. The only time it was higher was in 2022, when the $SPX fell by 19% over the next year. https://t.co/uiMBV0urj9" / X (twitter.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "OUCH! #Tesla mkt cap dropped to $529bn b/c a 'nightmare' quarter ended w/it falling wildly short on deliveries said it delivered 386,810 electric vehicles over Q1 of 2024, falling wildly short of Wall St’s expectations. https://t.co/0FPGPwZjz0" / X (twitter.com) It's not as if EV sales and prices been bullish lately... but noone had the estimates so low, and the bearish view there is on slower demand, prices/lower margins and therefore lower earnings, the bullish case is based around stuff that doesn't even exist nor makes money For all its faults, democracy is still better than autocracy (ft.com) Mongolia's central bank purchases 3.4 tons of gold in Q1 - China.org.cn Watch moment 7.2 magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan (msn.com) GOLD prices vs Newmount corp - ridiculously cheap ! #NEM Junior Silver minors - way way too low - breaking up (gold miners way too cheap too) #Silver #XAGUSD breaking up - finally HangSeng looks set to break up

Markets : UST's reacted sharply to ISM, yields up 12bps or so, 1st rate cut will push to September if ADP/NFP remains strong, crude breaking above 2+ years of trendlione resistance (China data, ISM up), just as GOLD (mainly) and Silver up too (commodity complex about to have a big rally by the looks..).. India's PMI stepped up to another level! hitting a 16y high Week ahead : in line PCE last Friday, China PMI and U.S ISM were stronger, next this week we have Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com) ISM manufacturing: ISM manufacturing rose more than expected to 50.3 (exp 48.5), this is the first positive headline reading since late 2022. New orders, production, and employment sub-indices were all higher >>> 1st rate cut expectations soon to be pushed to Sep 2024.. The S&P 500 is up 25% since the November FOMC meeting. That is a $10.9 trillion increase in the market cap of the S&P 500 in five months. Similarly, with lower rates and tighter credit spreads, the market cap of the US bond market is up $2.6 trillion. That’s a total increase in wealth since the Fed pivot of $13.5 trillion. For comparison, US consumer spending in 2023 was $19 trillion/Apollo The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years, The Qatar Central Bank reported (via IMF) that its #gold reserves rose by nearly 2'000kg in Feb. their reserves now exceed 100 tonnes Amazing stat: 98% of Warren Buffett's current net worth came after he turned 65. The power of time and uninterrupted compounding A US homebuyer now needs to earn $114k to afford an average priced home for sale, problem is, that's 35% more than the median household income BofA "US government spending past 5 months = $2.7tn, up 9% YoY…on course for $6.7tn in FY24; US national debt rising $1tn every 100 days…set to hit $35tn in May'24, $37tn by US election, $40tn in H2'25" >>> America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 Turkey election results likely to keep local markets in 'turmoil', in some sort of perpetual election mode, spending, and thus further devaluation quite likely Trump media : back to earth..Trump Media said it lost $58.2 million in 2023, compared with a profit of $50.5 million in 2022, revenues of ....$4.1 MIO... and still worth billions, lik I said last week, he should add crypto to the balancesheet, or Ai to the name to save it..or both! White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Thursday about a potential mega-deal that would include saudi normalization with Israel Gold prices hit new record high on Fed cut expectations (cnbc.com) Gold Mining Stocks Are Stupid Cheap as Gold Prices Hit Record Highs | InvestorPlace Utah Greenlights Gold and Silver Holdings to Protect State Reserve Funds (moneymetals.com) Might have to do with this... America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 (msn.com) Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: Brent rises above $88 a barrel, nearing a 6-month high. Tightening physical market as OPEC+ rollovers its output cuts, healthy demand, and Middle East tension contribute to the price increase | #OOTT" / X (twitter.com) 6be3c31aef2d4bf8ba7fd4de921ab92f (spglobal.com) Scoop: Sullivan to meet MBS to push Saudi side of Israel mega-deal (axios.com) Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in no hurry to lower interest rates (qz.com) ISM might get them to come out and say sifferently, so watch out for those FED speakers Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years.    Today's levels are likely marking a major double bottom, however, the valuation proposition is what makes this opportunity truly compelling in our view.   Gold miners are undoubtedly the most hated… https://t.co/X7gOfxR1YD" / X (twitter.com) But We Are Long-Term Investors (microcapclub.com) In 1951, at the age of 21, Warren Buffett put 53% of his portfolio into GEICO Buffett would make a quick 50% return in a year - turning $10,282 ($122,000 in today’s dollars) into $15,259 ($180,000). Not bad for a young 20-something. He sold GEICO and put the proceeds into a cheaper stock. This was part of a five year run where Buffett would average ~50% annual returns, growing his capital 10x breaking the $100,000 mark, equivalent to $1mio today Typical Household Earns $29,000 Less Than Needed to Afford Median Home (redfin.com) Trump Media stock plunges 20% after company reveals $58 million loss (qz.com) What goes up on fresh air, goes down on fresh air Trump puts up $175m bond and avoids having his assets seized (msn.com) Microsoft, OpenAI plan $100 billion 'Stargate' supercomputer (qz.com) Brexit: New tariffs for UK exports to Canada after failure to secure exemption (cityam.com) Still a winner that Brexit stuff..! The good Record-breaking Switzerland: from the world’s steepest railway to the largest igloo - SWI swissinfo.ch and the bad Switzerland sees record levels of theft in 2023 - SWI swissinfo.ch Erdogan sees 'turning point' for Turkey after poll defeat (rte.ie) Turkey opposition stuns in local elections victory over Erdogan party (cnbc.com) Havana Syndrome in Vietnam: Possible Russian role in attack on Americans, according to new evidence - CBS News #EURCHF and #GBPCHF keep going #WTI

Fed's Waller, known hawk, is in no hurry to cut (either real print lower in inflation or deteriorating economy is needed to change his mind), Oz equity markets hit new highs on softer than expected inflation data, 7y UST auction also went like a dream, 1bp through (not surprising with the usual month quarter-end bid in bonds), USD a little firmer, GOLD near highs, beware month/quarter end flows today, markets mostly closed (FX open) tomorrow for the PCE data + Powell “A sticky inflation scenario is maybe not a baseline, but it is a realistic case. And I think investors and people looking at the economy need to start thinking about it:” Pimco’s Richard Clarida The ECB may be able to lower interest rates “swiftly” even as workers receive large wage increases to catch up with two years of elevated inflation Nearly half of all investors expect a "no landing" scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession, Deutsche Bank survey shows Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks. Bosses sell hundreds of millions of dollars in company shares this quarter in sign that markets may be peaking? >>> why not, let's see about this, we all know valuations gone a little parabolic of late, so far though, valuations didn't matter Trump Media : DJT : revenues 3mio and loosing cash - valuation $9bn, fwiw price-to-sales is 2000 - what a world, 'Trump hype' maybe but that's real $$$'s >>> Trump should add a few BTC to his balance-sheet, add 'Ai' to his company name and crypto tech group, and the shares will go to $1K and he will be one of the richest person in the world..! BOJ Latest: Japan’s FX chief Masato Kanda vowed to take appropriate action against excessive swings without ruling out any options, saying he sees speculative moves behind the yen’s plunge. Most traders are now eyeing 152 per dollar as a possible trigger for direct intervention JPM's Dubravko does not give up ''S&P 500 will plummet 20% and finish the year at 4,200'', one of the reason is ''Crude Oil could soar to $100/barrel before the U.S. Presidential Election due to Russia's production cuts warns JP Morgan'' Citi raises China 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.6% previously The Fed has $950 bn in unrealized losses on their Treasury/MBS holdings BOE's Haskel: I think rate cuts are a long way off https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/forex/trading-conditions Markets opening hours during Easter weekend Fed's Waller is in 'no rush' to cut rates in 2024 (msn.com) Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board Labor market pulse: Hiring strength for lower-income workers | Vanguard Xi Jinping to China’s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatus | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Federal Reserve Banks: Combined Financial Statements 2023 >>> unrealized losses, probably doesn't matter, or does it..eventually.. JPMorgan Says Stocks Are So Crowded They May Crack at Any Time (yahoo.com) Irrespective of anyone's thinking, it's worth reading about the why it will go down in his view US Inflation Is Looking Stickier Than Economists Expected, Clarida Says - Bloomberg Nearly half of all investors expect a ‘no landing’ scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession, Deutsche Bank survey shows | Fortune ECB Has Room to Cut Swiftly Despite Wage Rebound, Cipollone Says - Bloomberg Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks (ft.com) It is allowed for them to sell,, and the markets have rallied big last few months, so only natural but worth pointing out Record sewage spills into England rivers and seas in 2023 - BBC News Scandalous! Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse, says AM Best - Reinsurance News Cocoa Prices: Chocolatiers Between a Hammer and a Hard Place | Balance sheet (bilan.ch) Prix du cacao: Les chocolatiers entre le marteau et l’enclume | Bilan Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced in FTX collapse: What to know (qz.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Gold and silver miners appear to be having their own “second wave” of free cash flow growth.   Stock prices are cheap, fundamentals are improving, underlying metal prices are breaking out, market sentiment is in the toilet, and positioning is completely uncrowded.   If this is… https://t.co/bnVVxhl3kB" / X (twitter.com) Blackstone CEO Reportedly Attended Xi Jinping Meeting (finews.asia) Chinese President Xi Jinping tells U.S. CEOs to keep investing (qz.com) And, 'in the corner of world gone mad' US man changes name to ‘Literally Anybody Else’ and announces US presidential bid | The Straits Times

At these prices, next year's Easter bunnies will be 3x the price! Choccy crisis! as cocoa prices hit 10K a ton U.S core PCE on Friday, FX markets open, Gold (precious metals is not), low liquidity is data 'out of expectations' >>> UST 5y notes auction of $66bn yesterday went off like a dream, by 1bp through, 7y auction today >>> FED's Waller important today, see FT article below, big picture, we continue to think the market may well move to 2, then 1 cut only in 2024 (sticky inflation, strong employment still, for now economy remains relatively strong, with all this fiscal spending! Closing in on Q1 2024, with VIX hitting all-time lows vs cross asset volatiliies #USDJPY near the big 152 marker, highs seen 1990 and 1998 when BoJ intervened, levels now 'beyond previous interventions levels, they will need more than 'talk talk', ''Japan's finance minister talked again about "decisive steps" to address "disorderly" currency moves China sued the US at the WTO over rules that discourage EV makers from buying Chinese battery materials. The Inflation Reduction Act and related regs are “discriminatory” and have “seriously distorted” the global supply chain U.S 2nd tier data yesterday was a little softer, Philii Fed, Richamind Fed manuf, Dallas services and consumer confidence TSMC : The world's biggest chips producer is on a high-speed hiring spree #XAUUSD : Switch to gold standard could stabilise prices – Philadelphia Fed research FUNDSTRAT: “.. Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside .. Russell 2000 companies are set to grow .. faster than the $SPX .. Valuations are far more attractive .. when CEO confidence recovers, we also see the low valuations as setting the stage for synergistic M&A ..” Markets : enjoying this low vol period, liquiditie splenty and 'mem' stocks franzy. UST 5y auction showed no issue whatsoever yesterday, usual bond bid into month quarter.end mentioned....together with a 'sell eq' at some point, all well documented by major market makers Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Are we witnessing a turning point in the way major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, implement their inflation-targeting regimes? Some thoughts via the Financial Times: https://t.co/FiXWESsZ0O #economy #centralbanks #inflation @FT #EconTwitter https://t.co/3dTcI0hyFD" / X FED's Waller speaks today, he first spoke about this in Q4, so he is the key The Kobeissi Letter on X: "How out of control is US government spending? "Since 1800, there have been 52 countries that saw a Debt-to-GDP above 130%, 51 of those countries have defaulted." - @TKL_Adam with @cvpayne Currently, the US has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 124% which is up over 20% since 2020. The… https://t.co/OyUaenXG8x" / X (twitter.com) Switch to gold standard could stabilise prices – Philadelphia Fed research - Central Banking #USDCNH Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 "One camp says the yuan will likely stabilize because the PBoC is trying to curb its depreciation, while another argues volatility will increase as officials are trying to loosen their grip on the currency and guide it lower to boost exports." https://t.co/9wnmt5UCqu" / X (twitter.com) >>> if USDJPY goes 160+, China will let USDCNH go higher Fed posts record loss of $114.3 billion in 2023 (msn.com) Alf on X: "Liquidity is going up, liquidity is going down, liquidity here, liquidity there. Sure: but what is ''liquidity''? Thread. 1/" / X (twitter.com) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸The Treasury sells $66b 5y notes today, the highest for this tenor on record‼️ Demand may be strong because: -At 4.25%, it would be the 4th highest auct yield since 2007 - This tenor offers an optimal risk-reward: yields need to rise above 5.5% within one year to enter the red https://t.co/FfS1glgFZZ" / X (twitter.com) Chipmaker TSMC is on an AI-fueled hiring spree (qz.com) Elon Musk's Tesla returns to Facebook to launch ads amid sales slump (qz.com) Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd.-2023-Annual-Report.pdf (pershingsquareholdings.com) Ackman going a little Buffetesque in his annual letter Without a bank, Migros posts a loss of 138 million euros – Inside Paradeplatz Bitcoin crosses $71,000 with new record high in sight and 'halving' soon (qz.com) Javier Blas on X: "🍫🍫🍫THE CHOCOLATE CRISIS — an UPDATED thread🆕🆕🆕: Retail chocolate prices are rising (and will increase much further, while shrinkflation will reduce sizes) after wholesale cocoa prices surged to an unthinkable all-time high of ***$10,000 a ton*** on Tuesday. 1/15 @Opinion https://t.co/rX9pUhInz0" / X (twitter.com) Fires From 2023 Smoldering Under Snow Reveal Canada's Dangerous New Reality - Bloomberg NAture! whaooo Fort Bend Co. neighbors want to know whether solar panel farm's hailstorm damage leaked chemicals (msn.com) Brutal... WHo pays up for the cleaning up and replacement ?

FT - US debt is on an 'unprecedented' trajectory that could lead to a Liz Truss-style market shock, the head of Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog has warned >>> USDollar and XAUUSD implications ? Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again. OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply + global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central banks have held that neutral in around 2-2.5%, but increasing evidence it may be higher, even 4-5%/Thread - it is already is a few macro frund's thoughts.. "The New York Fed has constructed a new measure of trend wage inflation, which currently is running at 5%...Wage inflation at 5% is not consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer:" Apollo PBOC is "alarmed" by the weakness of the yen (concerned over yuan implications) >>>''' Dear BoJ, if you let USDJPY push higher, we will be forced follow to weaken CNH to stay competitive''' Why do Western companies circumvent sanctions? What is the US policy of containing China? How is China reacting to sanctions on Russia? Will the potential Trump presidency be beneficial for the world economy? What does the market think about WW3? Igor Yelnik and Sir Michael Fallon speak with Bilal Hafeez, CEO & Head of Research, Macro Hive/video FED's Bostic repeated that he expects just -1- rate cut in 2024 French public deficit widened to 5.5% in 2023, above target of 4.9% Choccy getting super expensive next ! Cocoa prices hit $10K per ton More than 85% of Treasury issuance is in short-term bills, the highest since 2001/2002 BOE's Mann: Markets are pricing in too many rate cuts Trump bond in New York case reduced to $175 million from $454 million. Trump’s Truth Social is going public today. Experts warn $9 billion valuation defies logic Unwinding British QE may end up costing £100bn. Could that have been avoided? >>> the big question is why unwind them??? let them run-off! at no cost Financial Times on X: "FT Exclusive: US debt is on an 'unprecedented' trajectory that could lead to a Liz Truss-style market shock, the head of Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog has warned https://t.co/JLiKKeQE9z https://t.co/ljX3OpInL1" / X (twitter.com) Unwinding British QE may end up costing £100bn. Could that have been avoided? (ft.com) Why unwind at a huge cost???? let them run off The Trapped Economy: Americans Can't Buy a Home, Car, or Find a New Job (businessinsider.com) economy really doing so well, so that the majority of folks can afford a new flat ? a car ? not so fast, not so clear cut.. Can't afford new homes and yet The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: New Home Prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008, according to Reventure. New home prices peaked in late-2022 at $497,000 and have fallen to $401,000 as of the latest data. In the financial crisis,… https://t.co/N0ZTcCLSEN" / X (twitter.com) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again. OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply. Meanwhile, global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding. Even as non-OPEC production is at… https://t.co/nZtz6w23t4" / X (twitter.com) (1) Bob Elliott on X: "One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central banks have held that neutral in around 2-2.5%, but increasing evidence it may be higher, even 4-5%. https://t.co/TGaJ3pDcvw" / X (twitter.com) Or maybe a lot quicker than this! World Bank Document “In the modern era, gold continues to play a critical role in the global financial system, serving as a hedge against inflation, a safe haven asset, and a reserve asset for central banks. … gold remains a crucial component of the global financial system and is likely to continue to play an essential role in the future.” Capital Horizons - Bilal Hafeez - "Sanctions don't really work!" (youtube.com) they sure don't when only half the world (at best) follow them... everyone pretending and yet doping their own things through the back door.. DIRECT. Moscow attack: three new suspects remanded in custody (bfmtv.com) Baltimore Key Bridge collapse – latest: Bridge falls into river with pedestrians after being hit by large ship (msn.com) INfrastructure work !! needed, not just there! Australia chose Aukus and now it faces the prospect of having no submarine capability for at least a decade | Malcolm Turnbull | The Guardian Cocoa Tops $9,000 Mark for First Time on Global Supply Crunch - Bloomberg Middle East crisis live: Hamas emboldened to reject ceasefire proposal after UN vote, Israel claims (msn.com) Trump’s Truth Social is going public today. Experts warn $9 billion valuation defies logic (msn.com) #eurchf #gbpchf coming along nicely

Last week saw a dovish shift (and few cuts) from major central banks, essentially the FED signalled their willingness to cut rates to head off job-cutting spiral - even if it means slightly higher inflation for a while >>> U.S PCE on Friday will be key to follow, even though Europe will be out, market pricing is for 3 to 4 cuts in 2024 still. This week, Fed speakers today (Bostic, Goolsbee and Cook), Powell on Friday, geopolitical risks on the increase, France raises terror alert level, Moscow terror attacks, Israel/Gaza ongoing Donald Trump’s $464mn bond is due today. What happens next?. End of grace period could set off next phase of fight between former president and New York attorney-general Deutsche Bank's latest markets survey. Investors "seem happy for central banks to tolerate an extended period of above-target inflation." The Indian Giant Has Arrived-El-Erian article FT - U.S urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries... Why ? ... is it because the U.S SPR is pretty much empty and higher Oil prices would not be welcome for U.S inflation outlook and the FED's apparent willingness to cut rates ahead of U.S election in June or July US, Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in over 60 years, FT Nike, Lululemon, Tesla, Apple.... all struggling on CHINA focusing on local brands.. Is it a golden era for gold? Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs’ chief China equity strategist, says “fundamentally, it feels like things are stabilizing economically in China. Historically, the A-share market has been more sensitive to economic momentum.” #SHCOMP ''Jan contrarian trade etc''.. is working, long wa to go ! A record amount of money has flooded into US corporate bond markets this year. Inflows into credit funds have reached $22.8bn so far in 2024, the first positive start to a year since 2019 - no risk there! truly remarkable - all about flood of liquidity! China wants Microsoft and Intel off its computers. Meanwhile, the U.S. is ramping up semiconductor production at home to reduce its reliance on China and Taiwan Fed's Bostic scales back to single rate cut on inflation concerns With stocks pushing higher, and tech triumphant, defensive stocks have lagged behind — investors now hate defensives, and allocations are at record lows. Contrarian signal? Equity markets have continued to perform well (higher valuation rather than improving fundamentals), mostly on easier financial conditions, where investors from all corners feel almost forced to participate. USD stays firm on overall dovish CB's Top US diplomat warns Israel of global isolation if it attacks Rafah | Reuters Putin vows to punish those behind Russia concert massacre | Reuters Rosenberg: As Russia mourns, how will Putin react to concert attack? (msn.com) US lawmakers fear Russia’s influence in Africa after Niger junta cancels security pact | US foreign policy | The Guardian US, Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in over 60 years, FT reports (msn.com) France raises its security readiness to highest level after attack in Russia, worried about IS (msn.com) Israel-Gaza live: Unrwa ‘barred from north Gaza’ ahead of UN security council vote on new ceasefire resolution (msn.com) One to watch for potential higher vol Claus Vistesen on X: "Interesting; could it be related to JPY? -> https://t.co/XlJa6fmQOg" / X (twitter.com) Fed's Bostic scales back to single rate cut on inflation concerns | Reuters House Republicans ramp up Speaker Johnson pressure after budget saga (cnbc.com) The Indian Giant Has Arrived by Mohamed A. El-Erian & Michael Spence - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) CNBC Daily Open: U.S. labor market is in 'good shape' Investors pour money into US corporate bond funds at record rate (ft.com) Japan FX tsar says speculation behind weak yen, ready to take action | Reuters Is it a golden era for gold? | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S. (jpmorgan.com) Great write up and charts, couldn't agree more - gold has to be part of course of your investment portfolio, particularly as CB's keep on buying... 'debt debasing of fiat currencies continue' imho China wants Microsoft and Intel off its computers (qz.com) China's new guidelines block Intel, AMD chips in government computers: FT (cnbc.com) China faces ‘fork in the road,’ IMF chief Georgieva says at CDF forum (cnbc.com) BYD Seagull EV puts global auto execs, politicians on edge (cnbc.com) Affordable EV - as it should have been for years, that's what it was always meant to be, not 2.5 tons limousines at 100K price tag.. Goldman: We prefer China A-shares to H-shares on a more tactical basis (cnbc.com) Europe united?.... Greece ‘behind Russia’s ability to evade EU sanctions’ - Brussels Signal Freddie Ponton 🇫🇷 on X: "🇫🇷🇷🇺🇩🇪 FRANCE - RUSSIA - GERMANY French Nuclear giant Framatome & Russian Nuclear leader Rosatom announced new cooperation for the production of nuclear fuel in a German factory to power Soviet-designed reactors in Eastern Europe. The verbal escalation between French and… https://t.co/0pNZO1HQ62" / X (twitter.com) An Anglo-Italian company says it has cracked bitcoin. People have questions (ft.com) Switzerland fails to meet WHO air quality standards - SWI swissinfo.ch Michelle Mone PPE company at risk of being shut down by her former lawyers (telegraph.co.uk) amazing its still open Steep rise in deportation flights from Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Donald Trump’s $464mn bond is due on Monday. What happens next? (ft.com) Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced for multibillion-dollar fraud this week | Sam Bankman-Fried | The Guardian Notre-Dame's new spire revealed as scaffolding removed in Paris (dezeen.com) Northern lights predicted in US and UK on Monday night in wake of solar storms | World news | The Guardian A50 china shares - trying - market not convinced yet