ECB meeting : risk is Lagarde recognizes stronger U.S data on inflation, as a risk for europe and thus delaying what the market is looking for, namely a June cut guidance/confirmation
USDollar takes another leg higher, kind dollar reigns, though precious metals hardly budged yesterday on higher UST yields (all week..) >>> tough job for BoJ, USDJPY at 153+ is highest since mid 1990, #USDCHF approaching our target of 0.9200, pretty key levels 1.07025 area #EURUSD (charts below) + #QQQ and #AAPL
FED expectations shifted further after hot inflation data, #highfrolonger markets have 40bps priced in for 2024 now, reminded dot plots and guidance is 75bps (March meeting) and way down from 150bps priced in 4months ago >>>> CPI core services ex-housing (“supercore”) rose by 0.65% month/month in March … faster than prior month and among larger gains seen in post-pandemic period, must admit though, now 2y UST near 5% is VALUE!
UST's had a miserable week, again, 'failed' auctions and of the largest move in 5s for over 10years (ugly 10's yesterday, 3bps tail - whatever the reasons)
FOMC Minutes : “almost all saw it appropriate to cut this year”, and how the “Fed favours reducing monthly asset runoff pace by roughly half”, as expected broadly speaking
Larry Summers : You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards
Swiss banking plan leaves 'relieved' UBS out of immediate firing line. UBS could face higher capital rules under Swiss reforms
A lot of unhappy foreign investors in Russia from ‘unfriendly’ countries yesterday after Putin signed a confiscation decree... in response to Western expropriations from 2022 to today.. “There will be no more Britons, Americans, and Dutch who own strategic industries in Russia. After freezing our assets.”
Joe Biden warns of imminent 'significant attack' by Iran on Israel, as he vows US support is 'ironclad'
Atlanta Fed on X: "The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—increased 5.0% (on an annualized basis) in March, following a 4.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 4.5%. https://t.co/YeT8ffe4D5" / X (twitter.com) forget about the 2% goal, we are going to live in a world of 3% inflation and rates 4-5% #highfrolonger (which by the way, is a good world for solid quality businesses, but it will break a few weaker ones)
Ole S Hansen on X: "What is #gold's resilience telling us? In the last month, bullion trades up 7% while the dollar has gained 1.8%, 10-yr yields 45 bps and three rate cuts by Dec 2025 has been removed. Conclusion: buyers don't care about funding cost, but worry about geopolitics, an out of… https://t.co/j6M6wgWe2K" / X (twitter.com)
Russia Seizes Over 650,000 Acres Of Farmland And Other Assets From Company With Ties To 'Unfriendly' Country (yahoo.com)
Lloyds to cut jobs in risk management as it was ‘blocker’ on transformation progress (msn.com) >>>> is this wise..!?
Craig Shapiro on X: "Reminder. During the worse parts of Covid in 2020, the Fed increased the size of its Balance Sheet by about $3trn in the second quarter of 2020. Then it steadily increased its balance sheet further by an additional $2trn for the next 7 quarters. So when the Fed needs to add… https://t.co/DIl8l3BVy7" / X (twitter.com)
Opinion | Israel: Cease-Fire, Get Hostages, Leave Gaza, Rethink Everything - The New York Times (nytimes.com) interesting read
QQQ bulls don't want index to trade below 17750 ! or else
#AAPL those who shorted it in Jan when we talked together about it, might want to TP now, those with more patience, may well want to ...be patient