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Writer's pictureStéphan
Apr 53 min read

Fed speakers / Biden & Bibi call / Geopolitics : gradually, then suddenly Brent, VIX, ODTE, JPY & CHF to a certain extent / NFP up next, weekend risk / Growth vs quality-energy-commods in Q2



  • Middle East crisis not going away, this geopolitics risk is probably way under-priced- big picture and one to think about (supply disruption, crude, energy etc) >>> you may get now regular friday question of 'who wants to hold risk into weekend'

  • BLINKEN: "With regard to our policy in Gaza ... if we don’t see the changes that we need to see, there’ll be changes in our own policy."

  • Fed Latest: Kashkari & Goolsbee floated possibility of no rate cuts in 2024 (2nd tier members for markets), markets were running out of steam, what really mattered after that was ME geopolitics, #Brent oil jumped over $90/bbl for 1st time since October as the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of escalating, #VIX, #ODTE crowd bought a lot of SPX puts, bonds bid, all within 10minutes, gradually, then suddenly, though for now equity have hardly move, noone should be surprised of a 5-10pct correction in some of the way overdone sectors (Techs, Ai, mag7, concentration of risk etc)

  • Interview with Dr Thomas Hoenig was CEO of the Kansas City Fed, a voting member of the FOMC, and a Director of the FDIC - long but the guy was highly regarded -not a pretty picture Fed/U.S Treasury etc - well worth a listen - IMHO

  • The world needs over 2x the current annual supply of several key minerals to meet global climate pledges by 2030:" MS. China dominates production of these minerals, presenting "a challenge to the United States as it seeks to meet its climate goals and de-risk from China

  • Credit Suisse AT1: FINMA asks court not to show files to plaintiffs!

  • Ford to delay all-electric SUV, truck to focus on offering hybrid vehicles across its line up by 2030 >> You can build 25 hybrids with the minerals that it takes to build 1 EV," says Celebrity Motor Car Company owner Tom Maoli

  • CME raises Gold margins by 6.8% & Silver margins by 11.8%

  • The Biden administration has faced accusations of double standards online after stating it does not support Taiwan's independence on the same day it announced Ukraine would join NATO

  • SPX - time for a welcome correction - QQQ same and most of major indexes, together with a big rotation our of growthy stocks into enegry, quality, commods etc for Q2

 





https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1775809960636551651 .end of an era.. and not just talking about Janet :-) but china, trade relations, globalization, less foreign UST buying & the dreaded talks of de-dollarization.....in a word : most of it is inflationary, hence #highforlonger (not higher, just a higher plateau than many have been accustomed to last 15y ) in rates and inflation not heading back to 2%


Politicians are great at coming with big headlines, sounds good, but how is what that matters, and they often fail to give any real solutions..







SPX - too high too fast - time for a welcome correction

Brent crude


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