Markets : UST's reacted sharply to ISM, yields up 12bps or so, 1st rate cut will push to September if ADP/NFP remains strong, crude breaking above 2+ years of trendlione resistance (China data, ISM up), just as GOLD (mainly) and Silver up too (commodity complex about to have a big rally by the looks..)..
India's PMI stepped up to another level! hitting a 16y high
Week ahead : in line PCE last Friday, China PMI and U.S ISM were stronger, next this week we have Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)
ISM manufacturing: ISM manufacturing rose more than expected to 50.3 (exp 48.5), this is the first positive headline reading since late 2022. New orders, production, and employment sub-indices were all higher >>> 1st rate cut expectations soon to be pushed to Sep 2024..
The S&P 500 is up 25% since the November FOMC meeting. That is a $10.9 trillion increase in the market cap of the S&P 500 in five months. Similarly, with lower rates and tighter credit spreads, the market cap of the US bond market is up $2.6 trillion. That’s a total increase in wealth since the Fed pivot of $13.5 trillion. For comparison, US consumer spending in 2023 was $19 trillion/Apollo
The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years, The Qatar Central Bank reported (via IMF) that its #gold reserves rose by nearly 2'000kg in Feb. their reserves now exceed 100 tonnes
Amazing stat: 98% of Warren Buffett's current net worth came after he turned 65. The power of time and uninterrupted compounding
A US homebuyer now needs to earn $114k to afford an average priced home for sale, problem is, that's 35% more than the median household income
BofA "US government spending past 5 months = $2.7tn, up 9% YoY…on course for $6.7tn in FY24; US national debt rising $1tn every 100 days…set to hit $35tn in May'24, $37tn by US election, $40tn in H2'25" >>> America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054
Turkey election results likely to keep local markets in 'turmoil', in some sort of perpetual election mode, spending, and thus further devaluation quite likely
Trump media : back to earth..Trump Media said it lost $58.2 million in 2023, compared with a profit of $50.5 million in 2022, revenues of ....$4.1 MIO... and still worth billions, lik I said last week, he should add crypto to the balancesheet, or Ai to the name to save it..or both!
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Thursday about a potential mega-deal that would include saudi normalization with Israel
Might have to do with this... America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 (msn.com)
Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: Brent rises above $88 a barrel, nearing a 6-month high. Tightening physical market as OPEC+ rollovers its output cuts, healthy demand, and Middle East tension contribute to the price increase | #OOTT" / X (twitter.com)
ISM might get them to come out and say sifferently, so watch out for those FED speakers
Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years. Today's levels are likely marking a major double bottom, however, the valuation proposition is what makes this opportunity truly compelling in our view. Gold miners are undoubtedly the most hated… https://t.co/X7gOfxR1YD" / X (twitter.com)
In 1951, at the age of 21, Warren Buffett put 53% of his portfolio into GEICO
Buffett would make a quick 50% return in a year - turning $10,282 ($122,000 in today’s dollars) into $15,259 ($180,000). Not bad for a young 20-something. He sold GEICO and put the proceeds into a cheaper stock. This was part of a five year run where Buffett would average ~50% annual returns, growing his capital 10x breaking the $100,000 mark, equivalent to $1mio today
What goes up on fresh air, goes down on fresh air
Still a winner that Brexit stuff..!
The good Record-breaking Switzerland: from the world’s steepest railway to the largest igloo - SWI swissinfo.ch and the bad Switzerland sees record levels of theft in 2023 - SWI swissinfo.ch
