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China responding to Trump's threat on tariffs (weaken the Yuan-classic reaction like in 2018), BoC expected to cut 50bpd (priced) and U.S CPI in focus this afternoon (expected to be as it was, 3.2% last Aug, hasn't been below this level since) >>> USD within recent ranges, SPX500 6100 JPM wall, keeping most indexes under check/slight pressure, inflation data and all CB meetings coming up, weaker Yuan would only support GOLD further big picture, #BTCUSD looks due a correction lower #SMH ETF also may need to correct lower, post recent months euphoria (chart below) Exclusive-Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom, sources say >>> on the other hand it's a similar message than the other da y South Korea’s ex-defense minister attempts to take his own life as presidential office raided in martial law fallout U S. dominance over global financial markets has reached extreme levels, pointing to a bubble of epic proportions, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International The U-6 unemployment rate ROSE to 7.8% in November, the 2nd-highest in 3 YEARS The borrowing fee for shorting #GLD shares is breaking out Total US public debt hits a record $36.17 TRILLION, up $1 trillion over the last 105 days. US federal debt has risen by an average of $9.5 billion per day over the last 105 days Ray Dalio is once more promoting investment in gold and Bitcoin, deliberately avoiding debt assets since major economies are dealing with rapidly increasing indebtedness ‘The mother of all bubbles’ in the U.S. is sucking money away from the rest of the world, market expert says Exclusive-Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom, sources say   Dear Mr Trump, I raise your tariffs threats, and will weaken Yuan if you dare (reminder that Yuan yields are lowest globally, so wouldn't take much!)... Just like in 2018, such move will only make goods more expensive for the U.S consumers and a tit for tat tariffs war isn't really useful for anyone Exclusive: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom, sources say | Reuters Making sense of Japan’s economic and political developments - Investors' Chronicle Steve Rosenberg on X: "One Russian paper today: “We need to say it straight: Russia & Iran suffered a major defeat in Syria.” Plus, problems with the Superjet (“the wretched child of the Russian aviation industry”) & an attempt to declare Santa Claus a ‘foreign agent’. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/fXmAWlNOzq " / X South Korea’s ex-defense minister attempts to take his own life as presidential office raided in martial law fallout | CNN Trump pokes fun at ‘Governor’ Justin Trudeau again after floating possibility of Canada as the 51st state Alphabet stock is up after Google's quantum chip breakthrough Chinese Central Bank Just Secretly Bought 60 Tonnes of Gold Hedge Fund Titan Ray Dalio Favors Gold, Bitcoin Over Debt JaguarAnalytics on X: "Did you know quantum computing uses thin layers of $GLD Gold to reach zero absolute temperature in order to create superconducting material? Did you also know quantum computing is a growing threat to $BTC Bitcoin encryption? I’ll let you all chew on this thought. https://t.co/Dt1eijmH7B " / X Nippon Purchase of U.S. Steel Could Hinge on Trump Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️US UNEMPLOYMENT IS RISING⚠️ The U-6 unemployment rate ROSE to 7.8% in November, the 2nd-highest in 3 YEARS. It is up 1.3 percentage pts in 2 years. Metric includes Americans who want to work but have given up searching and part-time workers who cannot find full-time jobs. https://t.co/rYccd14CpE " / X

China may raise its budget deficit to the highest in three decades and make the deepest interest-rate cuts since 2015 following the boldest stimulus signals from its top leaders in years, according to economists >> market faded quickly AUD, HSI moves from yesterday China targets Nvidia with antitrust probe, escalates US chip tensions >>> getting ready for tariffs talks with Trump.. RBA kept interest rates at 4.35 per cent, the message was clear—we’re not out of the woods in sustainably returning inflation to target, bit of a dovish hold..they say Qatar-Turkiye gas pipeline >>> is that what it was (nearly) all about ? Terrorist’ label of Syria’s new rulers will need to be reconsidered, says UN envoy The S&P 500's Dividend Yield has moved down to 1.2%, the lowest since 2000 >> The cost to hedge a portfolio with 1-month S&P 500 options has only been lower during 2 short periods in the last 30 years, AND SPX500 top 6100 call ''JPM gamma wall'' Rachel Reeves wants EU relations 'reset' to drive economic growth , she will be the first Chancellor to attend the Eurogroup meeting of EU finance ministers since Brexit Thames water : Privatizing profits and socializing losses BoJ 's unexpected speech schedule lifts January Rate Hike Views – Bloomberg FT- “Investors’ “relentless” appetite for juicy returns has triggered the biggest boom on Wall Street in complex financial products since the lead-up to the global financial crisis in 2007. “, the kind of things that makes you go 'humm' Nvidia under investigation for a possible violation of the Antimonopoly law ''Google’s new quantum chip ‘Willow’ beats supercomputers by 10 septillion years'' FT-Merkel-worship was liberalism at its worst ... The FT person of the year in 2015.... Mario Nawfal on X: "🚨🇺🇸GOOGLE’S “WILLOW” QUANTUM CHIP MAKES CLASSICAL COMPUTERS LOOK LIKE DINOSAURS! Google just flexed its Quantum AI muscles, claiming its “Willow” chip solved in 5 minutes what classical computers couldn’t crack in billions of years. Yes, billions! The 105-qubit chip brings https://t.co/veQzOB2Jp0 " / X Google’s new quantum chip ‘Willow’ beats supercomputers by 10 septillion years China Economists Ramp Up Expectations for Rate Cuts, Spending China targets Nvidia with antitrust probe, escalates US chip tensions | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 A major article in both Xinhua and People's Daily discusses what is most likely to be the focus of the December work conference. Not surprisingly, the need to boost consumption seems to be at its center. https://t.co/yiyCLQ2tEp " / X Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Today, a new set of structural pressures has brought the US dollar to a critical juncture.    Thread 👇👇👇 https://t.co/s7Ai3QZhT4 " / X USDollar ''  a new set of structural pressures has brought the US dollar to a critical juncture'' RBA Keeps Interest Rates on Hold as Year Winds Down | The Urban Developer BOJ’s Unexpected Speech Schedule Lifts January Rate Hike Views - Bloomberg BoJ Dec meeting not really in play, but you just never know, only 6-7tics prices S.Korea parliament passes bill to appoint special counsel probe of President Yoon | Reuters Syria latest: Israeli tanks reported 'less than 20 miles' from Damascus | World News | Sky News IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as needed | The Times of Israel Assad's downfall exposes Russia's true weakness Ukraine war latest: Putin's top general calls US military chief in highly unusual move amid escalation fears | World News | Sky News Israel carries out dozens of air strikes across Syria, reports say - BBC News Prosecutors raid properties of key Georgescu backer in Romania election probe – POLITICO Rachel Reeves vows to ‘break down barriers’ to UK-EU post-Brexit trade — speech in full - Politics.co.uk Thames Water debt rises as boss hails solid progress on turnaround | The Standard Biggest mismanagement his history, quite a disgrace TBH - one of the best example of '' Privatizing profits and socializing losses'' NewRulesGeopolitics on X: "🚨🇶🇦🇹🇷 Now that Assad has fallen, there is no political obstacle to building the Qatar-Turkiye gas pipeline. The planned pipeline, which runs through Syria, is meant to provide Europe with an alternative to Russian gas. https://t.co/rdLisNQ4jF " / X ‘Terrorist’ label of Syria’s new rulers will need to be reconsidered, says UN envoy Merkel-worship was liberalism at its worst The Financial Times person of the year in 2015.... Switzerland jostles to attract mobile millionaires - SWI swissinfo.ch Opaque Swiss funding of NGOs under scrutiny - SWI swissinfo.ch

Nine Central Bank meetings in the next two weeks will likely deliver rate cuts from the FOMC (23bps cut pretty much priced in), ECB (nearly 30bps priced, exp), BOC (expected and priced 50bps cut) and SNB (40bps priced), BoJ just 7bps priced, RBA first up tonight (just 2-3bps priced, China move, AUD squeeze higher?), RBNZ nearly 35bps priced, Banco do Brazil tomorrow should hike to 12% (BRL weakness) >>> China news, VIX 13% near lows, all should tend to continue to help global markets/risk, bar any real new news! Trump refuses to guarantee that his tariffs won’t result in Americans paying more, and Trump Says He Has No Plan to Remove Powell at Fed >> less fake news, more reality! China consumer inflation rate drops to a five-month low >> China vows 'more proactive' fiscal stimulus measures, 'moderately' looser monetary policy Jeffrey Gundlach / Interview below : ''If interest rates are at 6% for the next 5 years. 50% of U.S. tax receipts would have to go to interest expense'' Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon issued a stark warning to America's wealthiest during his latest War Room podcast, claiming that the United States is heading toward a fiscal crisis that will require sacrifices from the billionaire class Wall Street veteran David Rosenberg offers up apology for his stock-market pessimism Warren Buffett: "Hang out with people better than you ... Pick out those whose behavior is somewhat better than yours and you'll drift in that direction. Similarly, if you hang out with a bad bunch, you'll very likely find your own behavior worse over time." Volkswagen braces for fresh strikes as salary cut talks resume Romanian top court annuls presidential election result (Friday) Australia’s AT1 phase out proposal unlikely to be replicated by other regulators Closer UK and EU ties will boost growth, says Reeves The price-to-book ratio on the S&P 500 hasn't been this high since around 1999, per BofA Trump refuses to guarantee that his tariffs won’t result in Americans paying more S&P 500 has declined for the second straight week. Weekly market recap, trading week 44/2024 CNBC on X: "China vows 'more proactive' fiscal stimulus measures, 'moderately' looser monetary policy https://t.co/C5GD1BHFg4 " / X Jobs report: U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November '' New job postings on Indeed back to late 2020 levels'' not a good trend Syria latest: International community seeks stability after Assad overthrow - BBC News A short guide to Syria’s long war Steve Rosenberg on X: "“Russia has lost its key ally in the Middle East” declares one Russian newspaper this morning. Another: “The failure of foreign allies to save Assad is a blow to their reputation.” What today’s Russian papers are saying about the fall of Bashar al-Assad. #Reading Russia https://t.co/lcVt0eIdJ4 " / X EU Needs 'Big Bang' On Defence To Face Russia Threat: New Commissioner | Barron's China CPI growth drops to a five-month low, missing expectations Rachel Reeves says closer UK and EU ties will boost economic growth - BBC News Volkswagen braces for fresh strikes as salary cut talks resume Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "Jeffrey Gundlach - 1) If interest rates are at 6% for the next 5 years. 50% of U.S. tax receipts would have to go to interest expense. 2) If interest rates are at 10% for the next 5 years. 100% of U.S. tax receipts would have to go to interest expense! 3) Once recession hits https://t.co/zb3WPqBFDn " / X Well worth a listen World economy has exited the ‘boom and bust’ cycle, BlackRock says - MarketWatch Wall Street veteran David Rosenberg offers up apology for his stock-market pessimism Hummm, the kind of things you see near market tops? Steve Bannon Issues Warning to America's Wealthy Romanian top court annuls presidential election result | Reuters Australia’s AT1 phase out proposal unlikely to be replicated by other regulators

Markets : NFP day, must be the first Friday of the month, Goldman say strong job report will cause a selloff, meanwhile JPMorgan says strong job report wil lead to a big rally >>> USDollar slightly weaker, if EURO can't go down on a good old French crisis, then... 1.0550-1.0650+ on weekly would scare a few shorts, other USD pairs not really playing up, yet anyway, #AUDUSD 0.64+ long might be worth a look, #CABLE held 1.25-1.26 area pretty well too to be fair (chart) Defiant Macron seeks new French PM, exit from crisis Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will hold a slim 220-215 majority when the next Congress gets underway next month after Democrats picked up a seat in California, according to Edison Research on Wednesday >>> quite important, implies Trump needs to rush stuff through before next primaries! particularly since they will see their majority narrow further at least for some time when the new Congress convenes in January to 217-215 after Trump chose two members for top positions in his administration Chevron Slows Permian Growth in Latest Hurdle to Trump Oil Plan 40% of unemployed job seekers (U.S) report they haven't had a single job interview this year Just because the unemployment rate is low (4.1%), and layoffs aren't surging, doesn't mean the job market is running hot—it isn't #MSTR #MSTU It is effectively a giant short gamma position by retail that bleeds like 0DTE on steroids / Thread below, understand things can swing very sharply Greenspan, Nov 2014 interview #Gold #Silver Syrian rebel who took part in seizing key city of Hama in latest blow for Bashar al Assad speaks to Sky News >>> at this speed, Damascus this weekend? Defiant Macron seeks new French PM, exit from crisis Bloomberg on X: "French President Emmanuel Macron said he will appoint a new premier in the coming days after Marine Le Pen’s far-right party allied with leftist lawmakers to topple his government (translation via AP) https://t.co/6FGDalpV1d https://t.co/dVR21eTwFT " / X Trump picks former Georgia Sen. David Perdue for U.S. ambassador to China Republicans keep narrow US House majority as Democrats pick up last race Bezos doesn't think Musk will use political power against rivals That's going to be popular Biden considering preemptive pardons for officials Trump might target: Source Follow this up, particularly if you are long * Paulo Macro on X: "I think the $MSTU & $MSTX (2x $MSTR etfs) at significant risk of blowing up, XIV/Volmaggeddon style…people really don’t appreciate the risks. Look at their holdings. Dealers won’t extend more swap as market/counterparty risk has become too big for balance sheets especially this https://t.co/8eFxhOaTJS " / X James Anderson on X: "Nov 10, 2014 - $Gold 1,172.00 oz $Silver $15.57 oz Greenspan not only pump'd #Gold but also #Silver as historical counterparty-less payment👑combo We are now at the no not bullion, no plebian, go gamble in sh*tcoin fun https://t.co/SqNcCb5iQ3 https://t.co/Y7SNNXGqu0 " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Very good FT article on the forces underlying the global manufacturing squeeze: "Xi’s government is redirecting investments away from real estate and infrastructure into advanced industries. As domestic wages and profits stagnate, this... https://t.co/cUHVCiCCOP via @ft" / X Chevron Slows Permian Growth in Latest Hurdle to Trump Oil Plan Repatriated Gold Reaches Historic Highs 40% of job seekers say they haven’t had a single job interview this year | Fortune South Korea latest: President faces impeachment - as martial law chaos a 'wake-up call for West' | World News | Sky News Syrian rebel who took part in seizing key city of Hama in latest blow for Bashar al Assad speaks to Sky News | World News | Sky News Bitcoin breaks $100k: will it be the Digital Gold we have been hoping for? – The Armchair Trader UBS reisst Multimaten raus, kickt Kunden ohne Vorwarnung – Inside Paradeplatz

Powell : Fed leans toward a December interest rate cut, also said the economy looks better now than it did when the central bank began cutting interest rates in September, which means the Fed can move more slowly in reducing borrowing costs, he also added 'the usual' : U.S debt is on an unsustainable path Markets : equity markets loving the low vol and passive buying (ETF etc), FOMO style, EUStocks50 might even join in now, Bonds have had a friendly tone of late, and crypto got boosted again from SEC pick, of note, EURO is no lower after French vote (as discussed few days ago 'a lot has been priced in', those looking for SNB to become aggressive in cutting and possibly interventions should consider an opt play in GBPCHF / EURCHF or indeed USDCHF, take your pick BTC up >100K USD, after Trump named Paul Atkins to lead the SEC, even Powell 'pumped' BTC in his speech! As mostly expected, French government topples as parliament votes to oust Prime Minister Barnier, new PM might step in today, who would want the job ? >>>> the reality is that the budget issues won't go away, overall macro picture still awful Islamist-led Syrian rebels surrounded the key city of Hama "from three sides" on Wednesday as they continued their offensive on government-held territory Zuger Krypto-Börse: Kunden bangen um Tausende Franken Home sales in Miami, FL have collapsed/Thread Missouri bill would ban CBDCs, make gold and silver legal tender #GOLD BOJ's Nakamura: I am not against rate hikes but decision should be data dependent Barnier latest: 'Lot of uncertainty' in heart of EU as French government collapses | World News | Sky News Fed Leans Toward A December Interest Rate Cut Jerome Powell Says He’s ‘Not Concerned’ About Federal Reserve Independence Under Trump Trump picks Peter Navarro as top trade advisor Food prices are at a one year high: here's what may get more expensive Bitcoin Soars After Trump Names Paul Atkins To Lead SEC Missouri bill would ban CBDCs, make gold and silver legal tender 'Is France Now Greece on the Seine?': France's political crisis scrutinized by Western press French government topples as parliament votes to oust Prime Minister (Update) Syrian rebels surround key city Hama on 'three sides', war monitor says Shell and Equinor to combine UK offshore oil and gas assets Zuger Krypto-Börse: Kunden bangen um Tausende Franken | zentralplus Aus von Lykke: Die Hintergründe zur gescheiterten Krypto-Börse aus Zug Vodafone and Three’s £15bn merger approved by competition watchdog | The Standard Nick Gerli on X: "Home sales in Miami, FL have collapsed. Down 48% from their pandemic peak. Miami has experienced the largest drop in buyer demand of any large metro area in the last 3 years. Prices in Miami are still high. But could start dropping in 2025 as a result of this monumental https://t.co/PUDiDBKOh7 " / X You think investors/world is lacking liquidities?...so many of them around.. world gone mad SolanaFloor on X: "LATEST: @HalieyWelchX’s (Hawk Tuah Girl) newly launched token on @Solana soared to $500M before crashing below $60M in just 20 minutes. https://t.co/xjsTxzKB05 " / X

Defiant Macron says he won’t resign, doubles down on Barnier’s survival. The French president also downplayed the possible financial consequences of a no-confidence vote, which should take place later on today China is banning exports of rare minerals to the U.S. in a trade war tit-for-tat South Korean situation last night, is/was significant in the sense, that it  is another example that the norms of behaviour by politicians (in general), even in a democracy, have collapsed, politics getting more volatile EU leaders have embraced Mario Draghi's economic diagnosis as a "wake-up call" but eluded his crucial advise to issue fresh joint debt, as usual coming short of what they should do! The yield on China's 10-year bond is now trading below 2% . It has gotten there in a manner that should worry the Chinese government, and it has led some analysts to refer to the "Japanification" of China Angela Merkel: mother of German decline, she was wrong about everything -except Russia Outrageous Predictions 2025. Saxo's Outrageous Predictions: which one do you like ? GS : Why the great gold rally could continue #MSTR so in 2022, when rates where on the floor and BTC was below 20K, company grew its Bitcoin holdings by only 15%, and over the last couple of months they increased their holdings by over 50%, with rates up here and BTC at 90K... Total US debt is now up ~$13 TRILLION since 2020 and at a record $36 TRILLION. The US is projected to spend $3.8 billion PER DAY on interest expense in 2025 . Why is US government spending at crisis levels if we are on track for a "soft landing?" It is "conceivable" that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next rate-setting meeting this month but not more, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann COT Report: Mixed week in commodities as dollar buying continued | Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2025 | Saxo >>>too close to the market probability perhaps? Defiant Macron says he won’t resign, doubles down on Barnier’s survival – POLITICO South Korean lawmakers call to impeach President Yoon after back-track on martial law Why the great gold rally could continue | Goldman Sachs Trump's tariffs would 'spell disaster' for GM, Ford — and the rest of the auto industry China bans exports of rare minerals to U.S. trade war tit-for-tat Australia third-quarter GDP grows at a slower-than-expected 0.3% ECB rate cut of 25 bps possible, not more, ECB's Holzmann tells paper | Reuters EU leaders endorse 'New Competitiveness Deal' but skirt around joint debt | Euronews US move hurts global semiconductor supply chain, Chinese firms have to exercise caution when procuring US chips – semiconductor industry body - YUAN TALKS Why Trump’s Victory Is Musk’s –Merryn Talks Money – Apple Podcasts Tune in! #blondemoney Trump and al that jazz. Think of it as a business : ''A tech Bro coup'', the big question is whether the US folks will be able to handle the truths that will come out China bans exports of rare minerals to U.S. trade war tit-for-tat Berne: le loup n’est plus «strictement protégé» en Europe | 24 heures EU proposal to adapt protection status of the wolf Miliband needs to come clean on green targets South Western, C2C, and Greater Anglia to be renationalised Nomura boss takes pay cut after employee 'tried to kill clients' Italy Prosecutors Reportedly Issue Arrest Warrant for Rene Benko - Bloomberg The Prosecutor's Office in Trento #ITALY  has issued an arrest warrant for Austrian entrepreneur and Signa founder René Benko . Several other individuals have also been detained in Italy, including Bozen-based financial advisor Heinz Peter Hager and Cristina Santi, the mayor of Riva del Garda. Both are currently under house arrest Angela Merkel: mother of German decline - UnHerd “Merkel-Nostalgie” has swept a Germany grappling with war, a tanking economy and a collapsed government Myles McNulty on X: "It's happening...! China has started banning exports of critical minerals to the US, in the latest escalation of trade tensions ahead of Trump taking office next month, and his much touted tariffs. Effective immediately, China has banned the export of antimony, gallium and" / X WHAT ARE GALLIUM and GERMANIUM? The two metals have a vast array of specialist uses across chipmaking, communications equipment and defense. • Gallium is used in compound semiconductors, which combine multiple elements to improve transmission speed and efficiency, in TV and mobile phone screens, solar panels and radars. • Germanium’s uses incl fiber-optic communication, night-vision goggles and space exploration - most satellites are powered with germanium-based solar cells. Trade flows in these small and niche mkts are tricky to track, but China is overwhelmingly the top source of both metals — accounting for 94% of gallium supply and 83% of germanium, according to a EU Union study on critical raw materials this year. Excl. China, other countries with gallium production capacity incl. Russia and Ukraine, where the metal has been produced as a byproduct of alumina, as well as South Korea and Japan — as a byproduct of zinc. In North America, germanium is recovered alongside zinc, lead and other metals at Teck Resources Ltd.’s Trail smelter in British Columbia. Other producers incl specialty materials maker 5N Plus Inc., and Indium Corporation in the US. In Europe, Belgium’s Umicore is a producer of both metals.

Which way to we go ?...Le Pen and left set to topple Barnier government. Barnier is due to address television news programmes on Tuesday evening, starting around 1900 GMT, and is expected to face no-confidence motions on Wednesday, watch OAT/Bund spread for clues >>> thing is, all 3 parties 'hate' each other, and won't sign the other 2's proposition, somehow there is a path for Barnier! :-) Markets : bonds new highs pretty much across board, CHINA bonds leading (Like Japan previously..), low VIX pushing SPX5600 to a 55th high YTD, DAX 20K+, JPY crosses got exiting (got a little overdone yesterday, TP time), FED's Waller dovish, all about NFP now for the next bout of vol FED's Waller leaning on Dec cut, Williams data dependent >> market now pricing almost one 25bps cut for the next two meetings Trump warns of "ALL HELL TO PAY" if Israeli hostages are not released Swiss CPI at 0.7% vs 0.8% expected, market may start pricing in 50bps cut for Dec BoJ weighs case for first Triple hike since Japan's bubble burst/BBG Vladimir Putin to reject Donald Trump’s opening peace offer, says Russian tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev says. Russian president to engage in talks only if they include broader conflicts Response to Trump's tariffs threat : China will ban exports of 'dual-use items' related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States that take effect from Tuesday >>> Ai doesn't work well without new chips Workers at Volkswagen factories across Germany striking after the manufacturer said it would have to close plants amid falling demand and a slower-than-expected transition to electric vehicles. '''European governments’ obsession with net zero is a death wish on the automotive industry'''' >>> the EV cars built last few years are far too big, too heavy (think tyres needs..anything but green..), insurance prices are higher, overall price is 30% more than a 'normal car'.. and electricity priced went up big time, the EV markets needs to produce cheaper, smaller cars that are more affordable to folks, then they will be bought.. (clearly doesn't happen overnight in europe! it is already happening in China though..) "NATO’s new secretary-general Mark Rutte told the FT that the US would face a “dire threat” from China, Iran and North Korea if Ukraine were pushed to sign a peace deal on terms favourable to Russia." NATO chief to Trump: Unfavorable Ukraine peace deal would be 'dire threat' to U.S. There goes France? Le Pen and left set to topple Barnier government - The Debate France at turning point amid budget uncertainty, finance minister says China Bans Exports of Gallium, Germanium, Antimony to US Vladimir Putin to reject Donald Trump’s opening peace offer, says Russian tycoon « Il faut qu'on se parle » : les derniers jours de Carlos Tavares chez Stellantis | Les Echos Judge aims to rule on Elon Musk's $56 billion Tesla pay by year end Fed's Williams Says Rate-Cut Timing Will Depend on Data - MarketWatch Fed Governor Waller says he is 'leaning toward' a December rate cut, but worries about inflation Nick Timiraos on X: "Waller: “At present, I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting.” Because of recent inflation stickiness, “one could argue that there is a case for skipping a rate cut at the next meeting.” But … “policy is still restrictive enough that an" / X BOJ Weighs Case for First Triple Hike Since Japan’s Bubble Burst - Bloomberg Trump warns of "ALL HELL TO PAY" if Israeli hostages are not released US manufacturing contraction slows in November, outlook uncertain Cryptocurrencies, Brazil's Central Bank wants to ban stablecoin withdrawals from centralised exchanges to self-custody wallets Super Micro stock jumps as investigation finds no evidence of fraud Bob Elliott on X: "The global economy is getting a shot of adrenaline from a coordinated central bank easing. But unlike the past, it comes at a time when growth is pretty good, asset prices are near highs, and inflation remains elevated. Thread." / X Brexit deals £3bn blow to UK food exports as Starmer urged to strike deal with Brussels | The Independent

''President Trump to impose 100% tariffs on the BRICS group if they fail to support the U.S. Dollar'' >>> the USD is near highs, it's not as if the USD is under threat... and in any any case he promotes BTC and other crypto ! see Thread below >>> France crisis coming, all parties want it !, might push ECB to cut 50bps next week on 12th Dec, FED playing politics still (Powell speaks Wed, ISM and NFP key this Friday), RBA on 10th dec, FED, BoE, BoJ (Tankan 12Dec), SNB and French budget deadline between 18th and 21stDec The mother of all bubbles - The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world/FT The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.7%, the highest in 11 YEARS . Office CMBS delinquencies have risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis - whaoo Elon Musk tipped to give $100m to Nigel Farage in move to shake up British politics Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigns, Nissan faces a critical financial crisis, with “12 or 14 months to survive”, Nine Volkswagen plants to strike as labour battle escalates U.S Inflation is low but living costs are high, the CPI is 22% higher than in January 2020 Lombard Odier, die neue Skandal-Bank auf dem Platz The UK is paying £1 billion to turn off wind farms because the electricity grid can't cope, wasting a record amount of power Senegal’s leader says France should close all army bases in country France : inevitable break up of government coming, all parties want a crisis Syrian rebels enter Aleppo for first time in eight years during shock offensive Turkey will not support any peace plan for Ukraine that cedes occupied Ukrainian land to Russia Tens of thousands rally in Georgia as PM rebuffs calls for new election Georgia is being rocked by days of violent protests. Here’s what you need to know | CNN Syrian rebels enter Aleppo for first time in eight years during shock offensive | CNN Romania’s leftists set to top polls in parliamentary election, but far-right populists see big gains France Won’t Be Blackmailed on Budget, Finance Minister Says crisis coming, all about OAT's and EURO Ukraine war latest: German leader in Kyiv for surprise visit - after eyebrow-raising Putin call | World News | Sky News Senegal’s leader says France should close all army bases in country Turkey assures that it will not support peace plan with territorial concessions - MP Lombard Odier, die neue Skandal-Bank auf dem Platz – Inside Paradeplatz The mother of all bubbles Elon Musk tipped to give $100m to Nigel Farage in move to shake up British politics | The Standard Nissan's Financial Collapse Was Inevitable After CEO's Japan Escape Saga VW’s German Workers To Go On “Warning” Strikes After Failed Negotiations Over Wage Cuts Trump threatens Brics nations with 100% tariffs if they undermine dollar ALL a negotiation, always - threaten and then impose tariffs exaggerated reasons etc - trigger retaliations from other countries - impose further tariffs and provoke possible trade wars - drag out negotiations till he received concessions , secure trade deals on best terms for U.S., was just that in 2018-2020 with China and Canada/Mexico USCMA deal that replaced NAFTA Trudeau promised Trump tougher border controls, says top Canada official | Reuters Money trail: questions over deposed Bangladeshi elite’s £400m UK property empire | Business | The Guardian Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigns - source Greg Ip on X: "Trump's defense of the dollar's reserve currency status is disconsonant because it's a key reason for the structural trade deficit. Demand for dollar assets creates a capital account surplus that induces the U.S. to run a current account deficit. (Triffin dilemma, anyone?)" / X Anton Gerashchenko on X: "The ruble has once again become one of the weakest currencies in the world this year (with a 27% rise in the USD exchange rate). It even surpassed the Turkish lira in its collapse, which had been one of the favorite topics of Russian news. But instead of real measures to stop https://t.co/6oysgaJxzo " / X Anton Gerashchenko on X: "German MPs from the AfD Party Met with Putin Allies in Russia – t-online Three MPs from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party traveled to Sochi, Russia in November, raising fresh concerns over the party's long-standing ties with Russian elites. All three have https://t.co/ryrRstPaYs " / X Kühne+Nagel schlechter als Nestlé – Inside Paradeplatz UK Is Paying £1 Billion to Waste a Record Amount of Wind Power - Bloomberg

Happy shopping day! Markets : hotter-than-expected Tokyo inflation data that spurred expectations of a BoJ rate hike next week, JPY has appreciated 3% this week (quite easily-from a momentum point of view). USD is hitting or is near all time highs vs BRL, INR, CNH, RUB etc, some respite perhaps coming from lower UST yields into year-end (seasonals), and previous metals usually have a good Dec, overall we continue to favour short #CROSSJPY's This was a very important speech, yesterday, by French governor Villeroy de Galhau yesterday. Very dovish, but also unusually bold and explicitly at odds with hawkish comments from other ECB members. A clear divide has opened up within the Governing Council/Thread Undersea cable cuts in the Baltic Sea are stoking geopolitical tensions Economic growth in Spain, Portugal, and Greece has been greater than the euro area average since 2022 .  Goldman Sachs expects this outperformance to continue as strong employment in these countries supports investment and consumption.  Additionally, they are less exposed to potential US tariffs and industrial competition from China >>> the divergence and fragility of many coalitions (Italy, France-Barnier, Germany, Ireland vote today etc) AND the likes of Dutch inflation coming in at 4%, this is double the ECB target ! Current economic conditions assessment of investors in Germany FELL to -91.4, in line with the 2020 covid crisis and the Great Financial Crisis, negative for the last 3 years! According to the FT, "Christine Lagarde has urged Europe’s political leaders to co-operate with Donald Trump over tariffs and buy more products made in the US, warning that an acrimonious trade war risks wiping out global economic growth.", just as Trudeau and Sheinbaum did within 24hours.. Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg has visited Donald Trump at his resort in Mar-a-Lago, further evidence of the apparent thawing in their once frosty relations BlackRock, Vanguard Accused of Antitrust Violations by Texas Australian social media ban started with call to act by politician's wife Nigel Farage says he looks forward to Elon Musk's work in the US government, which could be "a blueprint" for a future Reform UK government Keir Starmer will be invited to attend the EU leaders' summit in February - the first UK PM invitation since Brexit All Turkish backed militia groups have now joined the Syrian rebel offensives against the Assad regime forces and the Russian military Lombard Odier Bank and a former employee indicted at the Federal Criminal Court for aggravated money laundering Yen strengthens past ¥150 against dollar on BoJ rate rise expectations Was this JPY strength to continue into Dec, it could trigger a slightly unsettled time, just keep an yeye on it clearly! FED is priced for 25bps cut, ECD just slightly more, EU CPI next (ECB totally split, just as politics in Europe!), BoJ might well move (tough call) CNBC Daily Open: Bitcoin nears $100,000 — but strategists are split (1) JohannesBorgen on X: "As the spread of France converge to the ones of Greece, Italy etc, so does the French central banker. Surely a coïncidence 😉" / X Interesting take ! Dutch inflation jumped to 4 percent in November | NL Times Barnier promises concessions on budget to try save French government Explainer: Baltic Sea undersea cable cuts stoke geopolitical tensions How Ireland's election voting system works Adani projects in Asia under fresh scrutiny after U.S. bribery charges - Nikkei Asia Australian social media ban started with call to act by politician's wife Georgia postpones EU membership bid until 2028 US Intelligence: Putin’s Nuclear Threats Are Bluster, But Hybrid Warfare Likely to Intensify Might well just be threat, worrying nonetheless Russian President Vladimir Putin says Trump is ‘intelligent and experienced,’ capable of finding ‘solutions’ | CNN Russian troops reportedly began evacuating from Tal Rifaat airbase in Syria – Global Defense Corp Mark Zuckerberg dines with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago BlackRock, Vanguard Accused of Antitrust Violations by Texas this could become bombastic Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and 10 other states claim the money managers, as part of their green agenda, combined their market clout and membership in climate groups to pressure coal producers to cut output. Shortages have caused Texans and residents of the other states to pay higher power bills, according to the lawsuit, filed Wednesday in federal court in Texas Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 According to the FT, "China’s long-term bond yields have fallen below Japan’s for the first time, as investors bet that the world’s second-biggest economy will become bogged down by the deflation that has long afflicted its neighbour." https://t.co/NOGc7qZKkP via @ft" / X Der Bär droht das grösste IT-Debakel ever – Inside Paradeplatz Republican party gains favorability in new Economist/YouGov poll Lombard Odier Bank and a former employee indicted at the Federal Criminal Court for aggravated money laundering

U.S inflation : all metrics are back on the rise, if only slightly, they are France : Real estate wealth tax: the Senate extends it to yachts, savings, cryptos, in the name of the housing crisis Markets : UST yields down, JPY, Tech stocks down, something that happened in July, must be on top of #mustfollow list of potential risk in Dec #EURJPY SPX500 : Net long positioning in S&P 500 futures by institutional investors is now at ~240,000 contracts, the most on record #USDRUB US Sanctions hit Ruble as Russia’s FX sources are drying up, 115+ Glencore Nordenham awarded climate protection contract by German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action FT: "A former senior Chinese financial regulator has said top Beijing leaders set “psychological” targets for the nation’s stock markets and currency exchange rate that are not based on fundamentals." South Korea lowers interest rates to 3% over Trump fears. Rare back-to-back cut reflects concern over impact of incoming US president’s policies #USDRUB jumped nearly 10pct yesterday, to a record of 115RUB >>> today : Russia’s central bank suspends all currency purchases, The decision to halt foreign currency purchases from Thursday until Dec. 31 seeks to “reduce volatility in the financial markets,”... Russia’s sabotage of western targets ‘could trigger Nato defence clause’ German intelligence chief warns continued hybrid warfare by Moscow increases risk of alliance invoking Article 5 Swedish authorities have reason to suspect that the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor on the seabed for kilometers in order to damage the submarine cables between Finland & Germany and Sweden & Lithuania The Adani Group has lost $55 billion in market value since last week’s shock indictment of billionaire founder French government still shaky as lawmakers compromise on budget bill >>> France effectively failed to consolidate in 'good times', and now has to press on with austerity or the #bonvigilante could do some damage in #OAT land >>> 12years later...maybe Greece can come to the rescue now, but not before on insisting on draconian austerity and tax measures :-) Russian central bank halts US dollar purchases Russia’s sabotage of western targets ‘could trigger Nato defence clause’ | Nato | The Guardian US Sanctions Hit Ruble as Russia’s FX Sources Are Drying Up Bitcoin (BTC) Gets Boost as Crypto Supporters Vie to Head SEC, CFTC - Bloomberg Real estate wealth tax: the Senate extends it to yachts, savings, cryptos, in the name of the housing crisis BOJ incurs record losses on bond holdings as yields rise | Reuters Trump is the last chance to save the decaying West from terminal decline South Korea lowers interest rates over Trump fears Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The Fed's worst nightmare is officially here: Today's data confirms ALL 3 inflation metrics are back on the rise. For the first time since February 2022, Core CPI, PCE and PPI inflation are now rising at the SAME time. Did the Fed spark a new wave of inflation? (a thread)" / X Glencore Nordenham awarded climate protection contract by German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 FT: "A former senior Chinese financial regulator has said top Beijing leaders set “psychological” targets for the nation’s stock markets and currency exchange rate that are not based on fundamentals." https://t.co/2lCx58I01k via @ft" / X Swiss-EU negotiations on 'last mile', says Swiss foreign minister - SWI swissinfo.ch Lammy plays down criticism of Chagos Islands deal Adani Group loses $55B in market value since U.S. indictment of founder | Fortune Asia Whaoo

Fed Minutes show greater confidence about jobs and inflation, still not sure what the neutral rate is, so they cut rates anyway, NFP next week will define Dec meeting which is 50/50 at mom for markets, anything goes. Markets : U.S will continue to favour Thech dominance, Musk, AI etc etc, China seems to be catching up, while Europe is stuck in the mud for years to come, unless they go (fast) the Draghi way.. >>> EURJPY breaking down, EURCHF hardly even seems to catch a bid (for long), EURUSD 1.05 big area, let's see what NFP and FED do in Dec (EU data is very poor no matter how you slice it. Equity markets may struggle a little into Dec, all about momentum, which almost everyone sees as bullish into Dec (beware if consensus gets a reason to shift view!!) Bessent suggests countries get sorted into 3 tiers and that tariffs function similar to sanctions. You play nice, you get lower tariffs. You buy Russian oil, you get higher tariffs. Trump's Trade chief advocates strategic decoupling from China, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, overall Trudeau has already spoken to Trump and so has the Mexican leader, regarding border check..... Greece 5y bonds cheaper than France's 5y, Bund/OAT new highs again Walmart, the nation's largest private employer, rolls back DEI under pressure Asked whether President Trump will alter the trajectory of American oil production, ExxonMobil head of upstream says: “Radical change is unlikely.” >>> ''drill, baby, drill mode doesn't seem all that likely Rapidly depleting gas reserves and looming supply cuts from Moscow have the makings of a fresh energy crisis for Europe Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasurer largest position - on 4th Nov? Gold "I think we're in a long-term bull market in Gold. We're seeing reserve accumulation by CBs. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position. Even I was surprised when Poland said they want to take their Gold reserves to 20%." California plan excludes Tesla from new EV tax credits, governor's office says Relax Germany’s debt brake, says Angela Merkel, says the person who introduced them into constitution 56% of Americans think stock prices will trade higher over the next 12 months, the most in history /Conference Board Macron expects the Barnier government to fall New Zealand's central bank cut rates for a third time in four months on Wednesday and flagged more substantial easing, including a likely half percentage point reduction in February, as inflation moderated to around the bank's target Live updates: Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect in Lebanon, war in Gaza | CNN Israel-Hezbollah permanent ceasefire has been accepted, Biden says Live updates: Ukraine-Russia war, US allows Kyiv to make long-range missile strikes into Russia | CNN Trudeau Panics Amid Trump's Massive Tariff Threat, Calls Emergency Meeting That didn't take long Relax Germany’s debt brake, says Angela Merkel Fed Minutes Show Greater Confidence About Jobs and Inflation Trump taps Jamieson Greer as US trade representative as ramps up tariff plans | Reuters Mexico vows tit-for-tat tariffs against Trump ‘until we put at risk common businesses’ | Fortune New Zealand cuts rates by 50 bps, flags further easing | Reuters « Le gouvernement va tomber » : Macron s’attend à une chute de Barnier - Le Parisien Walmart pulls back on DEI efforts, removes some LBGTQ merchandise Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of... https://t.co/37Il24vsWj " / X modest proposal on X: "Bessent suggests countries get sorted into 3 tiers and that tariffs function similar to sanctions. You play nice, you get lower tariffs. You buy Russian oil, you get higher tariffs. Also suggests creating bonds for NATO and other allies to buy to prefund our defense of them. https://t.co/pZTGIaA5hd " / X Starmer declares Britain ‘simply isn’t working’ and unveils plan to slash benefits bill | The Independent >>> this can't go on for much longer... While unemployment stands at almost 1.5 million, economic inactivity has also soared to more than nine million, with 2.8 million people out of work due to long-term sickness – a major driver of the rise in joblessness since the pandemic. Europe energy crisis: natural gas prices jump as Russia cut looms | Fortune Let's hope not !! Norsk Hydro Pulls Plug on Green Hydrogen and Battery Projects - Bloomberg California plan excludes Tesla from new EV tax credits, governor's office says

Trump starts his negotiations ! Plenty of time to hear counteroffers ! he does as most government do, negotiate, though he loves doing it for everyone to know and see. To Canada and Mexico, in an effort to force them to crack down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the US, to China until the government there blocks smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl from the country Trump Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent spoke on "Capital Allocators" podcast the day before the US election / Podcast below Markets : MXN weakened approx 2% overnight, which is nothing compared to 2016 when it weakened 10%, USDCAD well above 1.40+ now, the arrival of Bessent though hit the 'debasement' trade a little (Gold, BTC etc) OIL MARKET: JPMorgan releases quite a bearish view of the oil market for the next couple of years. The bank sees Brent averaging ~$73 a barrel next year and $61 in 2026. “Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels,” SNB's Schlegel also echoed previous remarks that the SNB doesn’t exclude taking borrowing costs negative again if necessary Joe Lonsdale / States and cities are hiding trillions in debt through accounting tricks that would land private sector CEOs in jail. Time to expose the scandal / Thread MicroStrategy spends $5.4 billion buying another 55,000 bitcoins Japan PM Ishiba calls on businesses for big wage rises next year Marine Le Pen might be about to wreck the eurozone. France’s far-right presidential hopeful is threatening to cause economic and political turmoil by toppling Michel Barnier’s young government UK stocks are set to outpace their European peers, according to some of Wall Street’s biggest institutions, with the London market seen as better placed to weather the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff Trump threatens China, Mexico and Canada with new tariffs Joe Lonsdale on X: "1/ States and cities are hiding trillions in debt through accounting tricks that would land private sector CEOs in jail. Time to expose the scandal. To stop crony leaders from hiding massive debts, the incoming administration might fix our misguided govt accounting standards." / X Trump Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent spoke on "Capital Allocators" podcast the day before the US election. During this interview he stated the following: " I think we're in a long-term bull market in Gold.  We're seeing reserve accumulation by Central Banks. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position. Even I was surprised when the Central Bank of Poland said they want to take their Gold reserves to 20%. " Scott Bessent - Macro Maven - Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry - Apple Podcasts #GOLD #XAUUSD Gold Telegraph ⚡ on X: "IS THE UNITED STATES CONSIDERING A GOLD-BACKED TREASURY INSTRUMENT? 🇺🇸 Some interesting coincidences... “We are going to have to have some kind of a grand global economic reordering.” Scott Bessent, the incoming Treasury Secretary, is stepping into the spotlight to manage the https://t.co/LUFphhhRfb " / X Japan PM Ishiba calls on businesses for big wage rises next year | Reuters Swiss central banker wants to boost equity to head off risks - SWI swissinfo.ch Seven lessons from the November 2024 Swiss referendums - SWI swissinfo.ch Marine Le Pen might be about to wreck the eurozone – POLITICO Citigroup slashes promotions to overhaul bank Anton Gerashchenko on X: "I recommend reading through. The overall picture is very telling. ‼️ Bankruptcies, losses, and optimization of the largest and most important enterprises and banks are happening in Russia. In 2025, Russians will face a new series of losses and bankruptcies. The reason is not https://t.co/79I6cT8RLQ " / X MicroStrategy spends $5.4 billion buying another 55,000 bitcoins Jersey Mike's gets an $8 billion boost. What's next? Japan's Shikoku Bank: Controversial Seppuku Pledge May Have Just Been Historical | the deep dive