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Writer's pictureStéphan

RBNZ cuts 50bps / OATs / Israel-Lebanon ceasefire / HSI up / Trudeau responds / FOMC minutes / #EURJPY ⏬⏬



  • Fed Minutes show greater confidence about jobs and inflation, still not sure what the neutral rate is, so they cut rates anyway, NFP next week will define Dec meeting which is 50/50 at mom for markets, anything goes. Markets : U.S will continue to favour Thech dominance, Musk, AI etc etc, China seems to be catching up, while Europe is stuck in the mud for years to come, unless they go (fast) the Draghi way.. >>> EURJPY breaking down, EURCHF hardly even seems to catch a bid (for long), EURUSD 1.05 big area, let's see what NFP and FED do in Dec (EU data is very poor no matter how you slice it. Equity markets may struggle a little into Dec, all about momentum, which almost everyone sees as bullish into Dec (beware if consensus gets a reason to shift view!!)

  • Bessent suggests countries get sorted into 3 tiers and that tariffs function similar to sanctions. You play nice, you get lower tariffs. You buy Russian oil, you get higher tariffs. Trump's Trade chief advocates strategic decoupling from China, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, overall Trudeau has already spoken to Trump and so has the Mexican leader, regarding border check.....

  • Greece 5y bonds cheaper than France's 5y, Bund/OAT new highs again

  • Walmart, the nation's largest private employer, rolls back DEI under pressure

  • Asked whether President Trump will alter the trajectory of American oil production, ExxonMobil head of upstream says: “Radical change is unlikely.” >>> ''drill, baby, drill mode doesn't seem all that likely

  • Rapidly depleting gas reserves and looming supply cuts from Moscow have the makings of a fresh energy crisis for Europe

  • Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasurer largest position - on 4th Nov? Gold "I think we're in a long-term bull market in Gold. We're seeing reserve accumulation by CBs. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position. Even I was surprised when Poland said they want to take their Gold reserves to 20%."

  • California plan excludes Tesla from new EV tax credits, governor's office says

  • Relax Germany’s debt brake, says Angela Merkel, says the person who introduced them into constitution

  • 56% of Americans think stock prices will trade higher over the next 12 months, the most in history/Conference Board

  • Macron expects the Barnier government to fall

  • New Zealand's central bank cut rates for a third time in four months on Wednesday and flagged more substantial easing, including a likely half percentage point reduction in February, as inflation moderated to around the bank's target


 



That didn't take long











Starmer declares Britain ‘simply isn’t working’ and unveils plan to slash benefits bill | The Independent >>> this can't go on for much longer... While unemployment stands at almost 1.5 million, economic inactivity has also soared to more than nine million, with 2.8 million people out of work due to long-term sickness – a major driver of the rise in joblessness since the pandemic.


Let's hope not !!







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