top of page
Writer's pictureStéphan
Nov 293 min read

Villeroy : ECB split, Dutch inflation 4% !, EU CPI next up / TKY infl hotter, BoJ next week / #EURJPY under pressure



  • Happy shopping day!

  • Markets : hotter-than-expected Tokyo inflation data that spurred expectations of a BoJ rate hike next week, JPY has appreciated 3% this week (quite easily-from a momentum point of view). USD is hitting or is near all time highs vs BRL, INR, CNH, RUB etc, some respite perhaps coming from lower UST yields into year-end (seasonals), and previous metals usually have a good Dec, overall we continue to favour short #CROSSJPY's

  • This was a very important speech, yesterday, by French governor Villeroy de Galhau yesterday. Very dovish, but also unusually bold and explicitly at odds with hawkish comments from other ECB members. A clear divide has opened up within the Governing Council/Thread

  • Undersea cable cuts in the Baltic Sea are stoking geopolitical tensions

  • Economic growth in Spain, Portugal, and Greece has been greater than the euro area average since 2022.  Goldman Sachs expects this outperformance to continue as strong employment in these countries supports investment and consumption.  Additionally, they are less exposed to potential US tariffs and industrial competition from China >>> the divergence and fragility of many coalitions (Italy, France-Barnier, Germany, Ireland vote today etc) AND the likes of Dutch inflation coming in at 4%, this is double the ECB target !

  • Current economic conditions assessment of investors in Germany FELL to -91.4, in line with the 2020 covid crisis and the Great Financial Crisis, negative for the last 3 years!

  • According to the FT, "Christine Lagarde has urged Europe’s political leaders to co-operate with Donald Trump over tariffs and buy more products made in the US, warning that an acrimonious trade war risks wiping out global economic growth.", just as Trudeau and Sheinbaum did within 24hours..

  • Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg has visited Donald Trump at his resort in Mar-a-Lago, further evidence of the apparent thawing in their once frosty relations

  • BlackRock, Vanguard Accused of Antitrust Violations by Texas

  • Australian social media ban started with call to act by politician's wife

  • Nigel Farage says he looks forward to Elon Musk's work in the US government, which could be "a blueprint" for a future Reform UK government

  • Keir Starmer will be invited to attend the EU leaders' summit in February - the first UK PM invitation since Brexit

  • All Turkish backed militia groups have now joined the Syrian rebel offensives against the Assad regime forces and the Russian military

  • Lombard Odier Bank and a former employee indicted at the Federal Criminal Court for aggravated money laundering


 

Yen strengthens past ¥150 against dollar on BoJ rate rise expectations Was this JPY strength to continue into Dec, it could trigger a slightly unsettled time, just keep an yeye on it clearly! FED is priced for 25bps cut, ECD just slightly more, EU CPI next (ECB totally split, just as politics in Europe!), BoJ might well move (tough call)



Interesting take !









Might well just be threat, worrying nonetheless



BlackRock, Vanguard Accused of Antitrust Violations by Texas this could become bombastic Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and 10 other states claim the money managers, as part of their green agenda, combined their market clout and membership in climate groups to pressure coal producers to cut output. Shortages have caused Texans and residents of the other states to pay higher power bills, according to the lawsuit, filed Wednesday in federal court in Texas





29 views0 comments

Comments

bottom of page