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How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell Some Republicans have laid the groundwork to oust the central-bank chief, but the Treasury secretary cited practical obstacles and economic hazards >>>> quiet start to the week by the looks ! Exclusive: Kevin Hassett Emerges as Serious Contender for Fed Chair Exclusive | How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell - WSJ Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "“Short US dollar” is the most crowded trade for the 1st time in FMS history https://t.co/v5m8zCuMVZ " / X

Crypto.......no gold looking coins there, just coding Markets : Trump plans to open ($9trn worth of) 401(k) and IRA markets to crypto, FED's Waller talking cuts in Sep, FED's Warsh touts 'regime change'.., China threatens to block Panama canal, 16-17year olds get to vote in UK elections, everyone trading 0DTE momentum !!, Trump health and erratic stuff is getting out of control, there is more behind the Epstein files that's for sure, THE ROBOTS AREN’T COMING...they are already here (THREAD) >>> overall equity markets been 'FOMO'ing' in low vols, and 0DTE daily momentum, NVDA, drones & satellites stuff, techs melting up, precious metals doing very nicely too..'risk' almost look to good to be real ! Kevin Warsh touts ‘regime change’ at Fed and calls for partnership with Treasury, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness. Fed's Waller believes it makes sense to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points , saying "the risk of a weaker jobs market is greater and sufficient" to do so. WSJ alleges Trump wrote a bawdy letter to Epstein in 2003. He called it “fake news” and says he will sue - shifting the narrative back in his favour with MAGA(?); as Trump told AG Bondi to allow the Epstein Grand Jury files to be unsealed Friday, subject to court approval Powell : the actual timing of the new FED chairman is less important than the overall influence he has on the entire committee, which will drive USD lower, UST curve will steepen/go positive and inflation will be very stubborn around 3%, its not all bad for equities, we continue to focus on quality/value/solid dividends for our clients >>> It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor/THREAD Germany and the UK sign first treaty since World War Two #XAUUSD : Central Banks turn to local Mines for Gold as prices surge #XPTUSD #PALL breaking up again, XAGUSD set for $40-50 new range soon #SILJ up and away long-term charts required.. Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries, sources say Denmark’s Minister for Economic Affairs Stephanie Lose says the EU remains constructive in the trade talks but will be firm that it is ready to defend its own interests Kevin Warsh touts 'regime change' at Fed and calls for partnership with Treasury Fed Chair Powell responds to White House questions about HQ renovation Fed's Waller wants July interest rate cut amid rising growth, job market risks | Reuters E-gates, train links, and school visits included in new UK-Germany treaty - BBC News Citigroup backs silver to soar just as gold’s rally loses steam - The Business Times Wall Street backs Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Trump fight Central Banks Buy Local Gold as Prices Soar Exclusive: Bank of England scrutinizes lenders for dollar risk amid Trump worries, sources say | Reuters Trump plans to open 401(k) and IRA markets to crypto US House passes three key crypto bills; market reaction muted as Bitcoin dips - CoinJournal On The Fast Track Towards a Government Shutdown China threatens to block Panama ports deal unless its shipping giant gets stake, WSJ reports | The Straits Times Nick Timiraos on X: "It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor." / X Trump supporters burn Maga hats after he dismisses Epstein files furor as ‘hoax’ | Jeffrey Epstein | The Guardian Trump sent Jeffrey Epstein ‘bawdy’ 50th birthday letter: WSJ – NBC New York Why is Trump fighting with MAGA over Epstein - and what has the president said about the paedophile? | US News | Sky News Mario Nawfal on X: "THE ROBOTS AREN’T COMING... THEY’RE HERE Amazon? Flexing with 750,000 robots that outpace humans every time. In China, robots are pumping gas. In kitchens, robot chefs are cooking meals from 5 million recipes like it's nothing. Meanwhile, Boston Dynamics built camera bots https://t.co/nsQNpfk5Nb " / X Syria’s Druze find bodies in the streets while searching for loved ones

France flirts with cutting two public holidays to save money, budget cuts, healthcare cuts, ''everyone has to chip in' time, big cuts, no doubt plenty of strikes coming, won't be easy to get through, but no choice there.. Markets : Trump floats the idea, then decided he wasn't going to fire Powell, for now anyway, nice intraday vol, then, as discussed last week, this is the real risk... Market watchers warn Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on the EU, and letters going out to 150 countries wit tariffs between 10 and 15%, Japan's June trade surplus plummets, exports contract again amid U.S. tariffs and weaker Oz employment data, Syria situation worrying, SPX down 1pct and back to where it was on 'Trump/Powell', same for USDollar, precious metals similar price action, 30's UST 5.04%, highest level in 18years or something, no-one seems to be worried about it right now though Trump : ''he is a terrible Fed chair, I was surprised Powell was appointed, frankly I was'.. couldn't make this up >> it's Trump who appointed Powell.. When he first run for office, he called employment data fake, when he was in place, he called it his economic success, Janet Yellen was slammed for keeping rates to low for Obama, not he wants to fire Powell for not doing the exact same, he promised to expose Epstein's client list, now he claims the whole thing is a hoax..all to distract from the great achievement of achieveing....no trade deal in 100days..but it's coming Israel stirs pot in S. Syria as casualties rise, cease-fire collapses EU Budget - Von der Leyen botches €2tn EU budget proposal with chaotic infighting - Centralised process has compromised launch of commission president’s spending plan Some big US banks plan to launch stablecoins, expecting crypto-friendly regulations >>> they need those stable coins soonest as they can to create demand for UST's.. France's 2026 budget plan includes €5 billion in healthcare cuts France flirts with cutting two public holidays to save money France: Opposition slams PM Bayrou’s budget cut plan - France 24 Trump denies that he plans to fire Powell: 'Highly unlikely' Trump says US will stick to 25% tariff on Japan, may have deal with India soon Traders boost bets on Fed rate cuts Fed’s Williams says tariffs are pushing up inflation, and he expects even higher prices in coming months Much weaker data there #AUD Unemployment rate rises to 4.3% | Australian Bureau of Statistics Japan's June trade surplus plummets, exports contract again amid U.S. tariffs TACO trade: Trump might not ‘chicken out’ of 30% tariffs on EU Some big US banks plan to launch stablecoins, expecting crypto-friendly regulations | Reuters Israel stirs pot in S. Syria as casualties rise, cease-fire collapses | Daily Sabah US agreed on 'specific steps' to bring an end to Syria clashes, top US diplomat says Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says Trump can succeed with Putin where Biden failed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y7zqdwzqyo Julian Smith says David Cameron was 'cavalier' in handling of Brexit Renault shares fall after French carmaker lowers 2025 guidance A ‘Himalayan tsunami’ has just devastated Nepal. It should be a wake-up call | The Independent Goldman Sachs posts Q2 earnings beat as stock trading surges TSMC Q2 profit surges 60%, reaches historic high | Reuters

Markets : Odds of a September rate cut have fallen to a coin flip, as inflation picked up a little to 2.7%m (tariffs...lead to...''broad based increases, affecting various imports..'') , UST 30y hits 5% again, JGB's long-end hit highest yield levels for 15y or so >>> end of yield suppression, this is like a referendum on the US's fiscal position (same for France, Japan etc) debt load beginning to matter, everywhere.. data centers in space (I kid you not..), earnings off to a soft ish pace, inflation is broadly higher, and equity valuations are on highs (mostly helped by NVDA..), plenty of reasons to get a correction from here, the FOMO mood can quickly turn pretty slow summer volumes.. + BoA's FM survey shows lowest cash allocation in 12years... and of course Trump keeps having a go at Powell, FED's independence is so key and should not be messed with, in a world where Mr President is blowing up debt levels... The US is urging the EU to fully adopt Washington’s more hawkish policy on China , a senior EU official said on Monday, amid growing speculation that the bloc could impose tougher measures on Beijing in order to clinch a trade deal with the US Fund managers' cash allocation has dropped to 3.9%, the second-lowest in 12 years, according to a BofA survey of 175 participants with $434 billion in assets Chip giant ASML smashes expectations on second-quarter net bookings Fed might need to hold rates steady ‘for quite some time,’ Logan says France's Bayrou bets big on austerity with spending freeze and holiday cuts What is happening in Japan? Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20% Goldman Sachs economists estimate that U.S. consumers will end up paying 70% of tariffs’ direct costs "Their cost, their quality is far superior to anything in the West." Ford Motors CEO admits China won the car industry Trump suggests Fed renovations could be fireable offense for Powell | CNN Business Trump plans pharma tariffs by July-end, semiconductors next in line - World News | The Financial Express US wants EU to ‘follow us 100%’ on China, says Brussels - Euractiv JPMorgan Chase earnings suggest U.S. economy is still humming Why Wells Fargo (WFC) Shares Are Falling Today Earnings live: Second quarter earnings season kicks off with big banks leading the way Short-term borrowing a concern though, possibly a real concern.. The Coastal Journal on X: "Citigroup’s $C liquidity just cracked Short-term borrowings exploded +44% YoY to $55.6B Repo liabilities still sky-high at $347.9B. That’s nearly $400B in fragile, short-term funding. This isn’t stable banking—it’s a ⚠️" / X Fed might need to hold rates steady ‘for quite some time,’ Logan says ASML Q2 2025 earnings report The next frontier in real estate: Data centers on the moon and space-support infrastructure – NBC New York Bayrou bets big on austerity with spending freeze and holiday cuts - Euractiv U.S. Inflation Picks Up to 2.7% in June as Tariffs Start to Push Up Prices - WSJ Greater Manchester 'at forefront of EV revolution' after Japanese firm creates 200 jobs with £100m investment - Manchester Evening News Shocking.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=HGyaIDvPggfQ6jU&v=Zdc6MHlTOTQ&feature=youtu.be This News Agents video about a £7 bio cover-up is absolutely brilliant, scary, fascinating and infuriating The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Global fund managers are rushing into equities at a record pace: Fund managers' cash allocation has dropped to 3.9%, the second-lowest in 12 years, according to a BofA survey of 175 participants with $434 billion in assets. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline since https://t.co/Wht22MYy2x " / X

Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties, Macron blames Brexit for rise in migrant crossings as Starmer hails ‘breakthrough’ small boats deal Markets : S&P 500: All-time high, NASDAQ: All-time high, BTC: All-time high, GOLD: All-time high, HOME PRICES: All-time high, and Mr Market has 3x Fed cuts priced in for 2025 and couple more next year. Trump goes after Canada & EU on tariffs again (trying to force a trade deal ?..), he's also using presidential power to send an big additional arms package to UKR, Market complacency evolved from "TACO" and "nothing ever happens" to now "everything is priced in" (like 50% tariffs and letters to EU/Canada), risk of correction coming (should be welcome in a rather too buoyant market..), XAGUD jumps to highest prices in 14years, on its way to +$40 this summer, Palladium reacting to Russia sanction risk.. #PALL Trump said he's disappointed in Russia and will make a big announcement on Monday Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies and leverage. Charlie Munger Governor Waller spoke on balance sheet policy . He indicated that he sees $2.7tn (9% of GDP) as a rough benchmark for “ample” reserves (down to $5.8 trn). This estimate was based off of 2019 market stress, where Waller noted reserve scarcity appeared to emerge suddenly when reserves fell below 8% of GDP St Louis Fed president Musalem remained hawkish , noting upside inflation risks and saying it would take time to determine the price impact from tariffs UK-France-EU #Brexit ''When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight'' Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees Africa leads the largest mobilization in history ― 8,000 km, 11 countries and 100 billion trees OSINTdefender on X: "U.S. President Donald J. Trump, for the first time since entering office, is reportedly preparing to use presidential power to send an additional arms package, including “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missiles and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) Munitions, to Ukraine. This https://t.co/AVK7f43osq " / X Trump puts 35% tariff on Canada, eyes 15%-20% tariffs for others | Reuters Fed Governor Waller favors cutting interest rates in July and continued shrinking of balance sheet Musalem says too soon to know if tariff inflation will be temporary, reinforcing Fed divide Starmer, Macron unveil migration deal, deeper defence ties Alex Taylor on X: ""When I look at Macron and Starmer talking now, it just demonstrates the narcissism of the arguments we had around Brexit and the extent our country turned in on itself. Looks ridiculous with hindsight." And that's Sir Alex Younger, the longest serving head of MI6 @BBCNewsnight https://t.co/P3ycOJq4id " / X BBC Newsnight on X: "“It's absolutely obvious to me that people should have a digital identity... Let's stop shouting at the French. A lot of this is on us.” Ex-MI6 boss, Sir Alex Younger, backs calls for digital ID cards and adds that they could help deter small boat crossings. #Newsnight https://t.co/WdpLVrbjTP " / X In Depth: The Scam That Turned China’s Housing Slump Into a Cash Machine - Caixin Global BNY Mellon will have custody of Ripple's new stablecoin Bitcoin Jumps to Record on Institutional Investor Demand Nvidia and Bitcoin dodge Trump's tech tariff effects Emmanuel Macron Criticises Brexit Stronger With EU | HuffPost UK Politics Microsoft Outlook hit with hours-long outage

And whooosh $4trn market cap ! Markets : BRL tariffs are about trade war with China (and in support of Bolsonaro..), new Russia sanctions possibly-more threats to Moscow (PALL..), India-UK trade deal ahead, UK-France pledge to coordinate the use of nuclear weapons to protect EU, FOMC is split, who isn't!, JGB yield curve is staring in the abyss, still no trade deal with US either >>> low vols (MOVE index etc) keeping markets/risks happy, including BTC now who seems to want to join in the 'melt-up' Perplexity's AI-powered web browser 'Comet' with agentic search launched JPM: The overall equity movement is perceived as occurring in one of the most favorable macro environments, characterized by a depreciating dollar, narrowing credit spreads, subdued inflation, and interest rates remaining below 4.5% Trump's latter tariffs were in part due to “ insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans ” >>> 30% tariff on Iraq, Moldova gets 25% tariff, 30% tariff of Algeria, 25% tariff on Brunei, 20% tariff on the Philippines FED minutes : What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sketched out new conditions that could trigger rate cuts by summer’s end, but inflation remains a big question OPEC has widened its media ban, this time excluding the WSJ, NYT, FT, Reuters and Bloomberg from attending its biennial industry conference in Vienna Indian PM Could Visit UK in Matter of Weeks to Finalise FTA - Report Japanese Carmakers Cut US Export Prices Most In Nearly A Decade To Offset Trump Tariffs Airline giant Emirates announces they will be accepting Bitcoin and crypto as payment for flights #BTC US shale is cracking under its own weight as “Weak market conditions, tariffs, and water problems are hobbling industry operations in the Permian basin” A staggering $7.4 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new all-time high Trump floats 50% tariff on Brazil, cites treatment of Bolsonaro Trump Boasts About Threat To ‘Bomb The S**t Out Of Moscow’ In Leaked Audio | HuffPost Latest News Trump is interested in new Russia sanctions. But there’s a catch. Comet Browser: Perplexity's AI-powered web browser 'Comet' with agentic search launched | Tech News - Business Standard PM Modi likely to visit UK in late July, formalising trade deal on agenda OPEC bars five news organizations from meeting - Talking Biz News Japanese Carmakers Cut US Export Prices Most In Nearly A Decade To Offset Trump Tariffs UK, France to enable 'co-ordinated' nuclear deterrent - The Standard What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts - WSJ 50 migrants a week could be sent back to France in pilot of 'one in, one out' deal - BBC News Nick Timiraos on X: "The Fed minutes tell us something we already knew: Officials are divided into three groups 1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group) 2) No cuts this year 3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple", ie, Waller and Bowman)" / X Nvidia hits $4 trillion market cap, first company in history Meta smart glasses with display revealed in mega leak — here's everything they can do Gas Outlook | U.S. drilling slows, not expected to rebound: Dallas Federal Reserve - Gas Outlook

Markets : Musk tells Dan Ives (#TSLA 's biggest bull) to 'shut' up, Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. Trump admitted yesterday of being played by Putin (some nasty reaction could now come, he started by saying more arms for UKR... his ego won't allow him to be played by Putin for long, starting with sanctions #PALL !?.. ) , EU ready to sign 'inferior framework deal with US (FT), talked about this one very recently (2july).. #COPPER UP in NYC terms and DOWN in LDN LME (ill thought strategy by Trump..), The US Dollar has rarely ever been this oversold >>> some $$$ upside reaction together with some risk-off in weeks ahead, as Trump goes nasty on tariffs and no more TACO (let alone bigger action vs Russia, with sanctions..), take a chill pill, markets valuations are rather well/fully priced, wait for better opportunities into Aug/September, the 'debasement trade' stalled/stopped since NFP... Trump: “Putin showers us with bullshit. It sounds nice but means nothing. I’m very seriously considering sanctions against Russia. I’m not happy with Putin—he’s killing a lot of soldiers, his own and theirs. We’ve given the Ukrainians the best weapons ever made.” USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50% #TSLA Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO #XAGUSD Ed Steer: World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell >> he is panicking as there is now nearly 10months supply of new single family homes for sale, similar to Feb 2008 Meta nabs Apple AI chief – a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple’s weakness? Germany demands Apple & Google remove China’s DeepSeek AI from their app stores The US stock market has a market capitalization of $63.8T, which is more than the other markets listed below combined at $61.6T The #EUR is coming to : Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 >>> EURO also made a new all-time-high in trade weighted terms yesterday With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism Donald Trump says pharmaceutical tariffs could reach 200 per cent – The Irish Times Donald Trump deal to leave EU facing higher tariffs than UK, FT reports Trump threatens to escalate trade war amid confusion over new tariff rates | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Trump says he is not happy with Russia’s Putin, considering sanctions Trump: “Putin would’ve taken Ukraine in 3-4 days if not for Ukrainian bravery and U.S. weapons” During a press briefing, Donald Trump made a powerful statement about Ukraine's defense at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion:   “We gave them missiles — the latest and the best. This would’ve been a war lasting three, maybe four days. But they had the advantage of incredible equipment. And I’ll say this: Ukrainians — whether you think it was fair we gave them all that money or not — they were incredibly brave, because someone had to run those systems. A lot of people I know couldn’t have done it or had the courage to do so. They fought very bravely.” Ole S Hansen on X: "European opening comment on #copper: Copper futures traded in New York surged after Trump said he was focusing on a 50% tariff on imports, starting in early August, as opposed to the 25% expected by the market. The US imports more than 50% due to a lack of domestic production and" / X World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest | SilverSeek Considering the current state of affairs of the world as they stand today -- and the structural deficit in silver -- and now in platinum and palladium as well, the chance that these big bullion banks and commodity trading houses could get overrun at some point, is no longer zero -- and certainly within the realm of possibility if things go totally non-linear at some point. Gold, silver, platinum take a timeout after strong first half | Saxo Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. On our current fiscal path, US bankruptcy is simply a matter of time. Something must" / X Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege by Desmond Lachman - Project Syndicate Meta nabs Apple AI chief - a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple's weakness? Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 Luke Gromen on X: "USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50%. Gold now 2nd biggest FX reserve asset behind USD. USD + EUR share of global FX reserves was 78% in 2007; today, that is 62%. Gold now 2nd + “Other currencies” share of FX reserves was 22% in 2007; today, that is 38%. https://t.co/AYNBBhxfU7 " / X You bet ! M&S chair: UK needs to muscle up to tackle cyber threats Steve Schmidt on X: "With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism. Watch here: https://t.co/cwnjpMtOHT https://t.co/dP4wRGfJrA " / X Rachel Reeves to face fresh blow with sluggish growth data The top five UK small caps we're watching this summer – The Armchair Trader

Trump announces steep tariffs on 14 countries starting Aug. 1 >>>> Trump's letters to Japan and South Korea demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of trade. Tariffs have nothing to do with America's trade deficits with either nation. Japan's tariffs on U.S. goods average less than 2%, and Korea's average less than 1%.. Markets : RBA surprised, and didn't cut (light AUD rally overnight), U.S eq markets slightly softer, though DAX +24K, if Trump gets serious about tariffs (as beautiful bill is now done he can take more actions he loves tariffs..) and too few deals are done, risk is this final deadline is not extended anymore , everyone has a view on outcome, Trump & Bessent keep pumping liquidities in system, so for now markets happy.. The EU said it's closing in on ''a framework trade agreement'' with the U.S Fed independence is already dead: Trump will get his monetary bailout. The US president is right. Central bankers have been calling the shots for too long/Telegraph The UK has risen up the ranks to become the joint top location for investment among CFOs around the world, a new survey has suggested, with financial officers open to taking on greater risks BM Talks: Alex Patelis speaks / Podcast below - well worth a listen Macron's UK state visit underlines effort to move on from Brexit nightmare Swiss shoe maker On employs one robot instead of 300 workers Is China dodging US tariffs? China's exports to the US fell -43% YoY in May, representing a $15 billion decline in trade value. However, the country’s total exports jumped +4.8% during the same period, per official Chinese data Trump: Tariffs on Japan, Korea, 12 more starting Aug. 1 Japan will continue trade talks with US for mutually beneficial deal, Ishiba says | Reuters EU prepares to stockpile critical minerals in case of war: FT - MINING.COM Analysis: A US-EU trade deal looks unlikely. What does that mean for the UK? German politicians demand ice cream price cap – media — RT World News Great use of tax payers money, pilitician's focus in the wrong place, quel joke, is this why they get voted in ? Fed independence is already dead: Trump will get his monetary bailout RBA holds rates unexpectedly as it waits for more inflation data Trump's Middle East envoy to join Gaza ceasefire talks Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine | Reuters Steve Rosenberg on X: "In today’s Russian papers: more Russians trying to do their own dental fillings with DIY kits “due to rising cost of dental treatment.” Sanctions causing "chronic illness" for Russia's economy. Plus, the rehabilitation of Stalin continues. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/ASI0uheFpS " / X Macron’s UK state visit underlines effort to move on from Brexit nightmare | Emmanuel Macron | The Guardian Starmer and Macron hit migration headwinds - Euractiv BM Talks: Alex Patelis speaks We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Alex Patelis , who served as Chief Economic Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis between 2019-2024. Alex also worked in investment banks including as Managing Director of Global Research at Merrill Lynch and studied under Ben Bernanke for his PhD from Princeton.  We asked: Ten years ago, Greece voted No in a referendum to a bailout, only for the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to perform the exact opposite three weeks later. What happened? Greece is now running a primary budget surplus with investment grade debt. How was this achieved?  What lessons can the rest of the world take from this? What does the German "Zeitenwende" mean for the EU? Is this the end for the dominance of the US Dollar? What advice do you have for Scott Bessent, who also moved from the world of finance into politics? What do you think of populism?  UK now ‘most attractive country’ for investment App for Swiss Abroad: Stay Updated Today - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss shoe maker On employs one robot instead of 300 workers - SWI swissinfo.ch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Is China dodging US tariffs? China's exports to the US fell -43% YoY in May, representing a $15 billion decline in trade value. However, the country’s total exports jumped +4.8% during the same period, per official Chinese data. This comes as shipments to the Association of https://t.co/qtWdnQAZNS " / X Elon Musk loses $15 billion in net worth after Tesla stock sinks Jeffrey Epstein Did Not Maintain "Client List", Says US Justice Department

BRICS leaders meet amid Trump's tariff threats Markets : bill passed, fiscal, trade, immigration and regulation uncertainty partly 'resolved' within those policy factors, what remains is U.S trade policy now, trade 'deals', and more TACO action as we heard over the weekend to 1st Aug and the threats started again ahead of the deadline now (could very well be THE deadline since the BBBill is passed now he can get angry again... >>> ...just as everyone thinks that there are effectively no deadlines.., beware, equity markets pretty calm near highs/FOMO like price action, USD stable near highs (positioning is short USD's), #TSLA and Musk in the headlines again Bessent: Tariffs will ‘boomerang’ back to April levels by Aug. 1 for countries without deals , Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations that side with Brics White House insider says “it’s all fake” regarding Trump’s trade deadlines  (“there’s no deadline. It’s a self-imposed landmark in this theatrical show”) Elon Musk says he has formed a new U.S. political party, the ‘America Party’ There is going to be real pain’ from AI: OpenAI’s Sam Altman warns ‘There will be whole categories of jobs that go away’ Europe  is hoping for a preliminary trade framework agreement  that leaves the 10% baseline tariff in place  while negotiations continue (this is the best-case scenario – it’s possible the White House decides to impose higher tariff rates while additional talks take place) OPEC+ pushed through  an even larger production hike than anticipated , taking output up by 548K BPD  (instead of the 411K pace of the last few months) as the cartel looks to recapture market share GPIF logs $61 billion loss as weak dollar hits overseas assets China retaliates to EU ban with import restrictions on medical devices Bessent: Tariffs will revert to April levels in August without deals Bessent on Yale Budget Lab saying richest Americans will see their income rise by nearly 2% while lowest earning Americans will actually see incomes drop as a result of Trump's bill: "I actually went on their website. They're all ex-Biden officials, so I think we can discount everything they say." Trump: What people don’t understand is.. the country eats the tariff, the company eats the tariff and it’s not passed along at all… China is eating the tariffs >>>Fact-check: False. Costs associated with tariffs are almost universally passed to consumers Hassett who is Trumps Senior Advisor says the best way for people to get insurance is to get a job. Completely admitting 11 million citizens will lose coverage. Hassett neglects that half US companies don't offer health insurance Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations that side with Brics BRICS leaders meet amid Trump's tariff threats – DW – 07/07/2025 ‘He likes the game too much’: Why Trump isn’t sweating his lack of trade deals - POLITICO EU weighs skeleton US trade deal with 10 percent tariff – POLITICO Elon Musk says he's created new political party Sky News on X: "Jeremy Corbyn's new party should be called the 'Farage Assistance Group', former labour leader Lord Kinnock says. 'The splintering offered by a new party of the left...can only be of assistance to the enemies of Labour and the working-class', he adds. 📺 Sky 501 https://t.co/JgerADcyyO " / X GPIF logs $61 billion loss as weak dollar hits overseas assets - The Japan Times China retaliates to EU ban with import restrictions on medical devices | Reuters Meanwhile... China snaps up mines around the world in rush to secure resources Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump Gundlach on Bloomberg: - Private Debt (and private equity) could be the next big bubble to burst. - US debt and interest expenses are unsustainable. - Gold is a real asset class. - We need to restructure institutions, political parties, and finances. Ole S Hansen on X: "#Crudeoil trades softer after a group of eight OPEC+ members announced a bigger-than-expected production increase from next month. The 548k b/d increase has accelerated the group's planned rollback of a 2.2m b/d cuts made in 2023, with a similar increase for September completing https://t.co/9yh5Rta5Qx " / X Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT just summed up the migration crisis for America perfectly. "The big LIE was that this kind of immigration didn't hurt working people. Now economists have come out and said, oh what a surprise, even the laws of supply and demand work https://t.co/3fPttkBt9I " / X ‘There Is Going To Be Real Pain’ From AI: OpenAI’s Sam Altman Warns ‘There Will Be Whole Categories Of Jobs That Go Away’ If he says it...

Happy 249th Independence Day Republican Senator Rand Paul: “This will be the largest increase in our debt ceiling in our history…once conservative Republicans vote for this, there is no conservative opposition. They will own it. The debt will be owned by the Republicans." Markets : SPX500 on highs by the close yesterday on the Beautiful Bill passing..., watch UST yields long-end now for signs if/when bond markets starts to be worried again.. . Witkoff is off to Middle East next week, Iran meeting, signs of 'regional peace deal' possible still, Trump floated a China trip this year, no progress made in UKR-RU ( Trump ‘disappointed’ with Putin after phone call) , Trump's trade war continues vs EU, China etc, he wants ''the world to squeeze out China''... (China has most of the cards though..) and yes the BBBill has passed (218 vs 214), fiscal deficits as far as her eye can see ! and ...a defense spending down to 2.7% over next 10'years, which is...well below NATO target.. “We have far more than 170 countries and how many deals can you make? I’d rather send out a letter saying this what you’re going to pay.” , Trump says countries to start paying tariffs on Aug 1, floats range of 10% to 70% EU-US trade talks : 'impossible' before 9th July deadline, says VdL Total US debt is now expected to hit $40 TRILLION THIS YEAR/thread NFP June report, +147K vs +106 expected, no chance of FED moving this month, in the balance for Sep now.. However, Rolling 6months sum of ⁦ job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities/Thread/chart China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine. Wang Yi speaks of concern that US could shift whole focus in China’s direction in talks with top EU diplomat Beijing Nailed it ! (1) The White House on X: "🇺🇸 LFG – The Golden Age is about to be LIT! 🇺🇸 The ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL has PASSED — and it’s en route to President Trump’s desk! https://t.co/HKocu3AAaE " / X This is the official message form the WH Tax changes under Trump’s 'big beautiful' bill in one chart Trump eyes simple tariff rates over complex talks, says letters going out Friday | Reuters Trump says he is willing to let migrant laborers stay on US farms | Reuters Trump says countries to start paying tariffs on Aug 1, floats range of 10% to 70% | The Straits Times Japan invokes national interest amid struggling tariff talks with US | The Straits Times Ukraine-Russia war live: Trump ‘disappointed’ with Putin after phone call Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources | South China Morning Post Trump wants the world to squeeze out China. He's starting with Vietnam (1) Ray Dalio on X: "Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt," / X Simply put together by Ray Dalio...fiscal dominance + incoming monetisation (1) Steve Rosenberg on X: "One Russian paper on tensions with Azerbaijan: “Although Azerbaijan’s leaders are not openly criticising Putin, this is a direct challenge to Putin & Russia's leadership.” Plus, Russian schools to “put more emphasis on moral, spiritual & patriotic component.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/7gERUQADcK " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is absolutely insane: Total US debt is now expected to hit $40 TRILLION THIS YEAR, per Kalshi. To put this into perspective, at the start of 2020, total US debt stood at $23.2 trillion. This would mark a near $17 TRILLION increase in 6 years. Never in history has the US" / X Nick Timiraos on X: "The June jobs report does little to reconcile a hazy outlook for Fed cuts besides very likely torpedoing whatever chance there was of a July cut, particularly if stocks continue to push to new highs. https://t.co/t9QpCrtg0M If you thought the labor market was gently cooling and" / X Liz Ann Sonders on X: "Rolling 6m sum of ⁦@ChallengerGray⁩ job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions https://t.co/OmzUlMFPM9 " / X Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities:   A classic macro alligator mouth that, in my view, is likely to close as global investors begin rotating out of US dollar-based assets.   Emerging market equities remain one of the most fundamentally undervalued areas of the market and have https://t.co/ilLs71NH6z " / X love that chart China finds $200 billion and 470,000 tons under this mine ― It's the end of rare earths in America Home Office unaware if foreign workers leave UK after visas end, MPs say Hong Kong investors triple gold holdings in rush to haven asset: HSBC survey | South China Morning Post (1) Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "I just signed an executive order to raise entrance fees while keeping fees for Americans. The National Parks will be about America first." https://t.co/JxKmXVRbUS " / X

Markets : UK markets got hit on possible departure of Rachel Reeves (gilts, GBP softer on risk of higher debt-spending). After the much weaker ADP, NFP next up today (likely to be softer, maybe much softer), the BBBill is going to struggle through, its a pretty tight affair to be fair ! should have a result today, good timing for some 4th July celebration. Equity markets on highs, slightly higher highs/overbought and USD quiet/stead/oversold in short-term but so far no reaction/short-covering rally, beware of possible wild price action today on an 'outside' NFP number ahead of a long weekend... July FED could be in play on a much weaker one only, otherwise market has already its 3x FED cuts priced in for later on in the year, starting with a Sep FED cut Jerome Powell silence on his future complicates Trump Fed Chair search, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac boss urges Congress probe Fed’s Jerome Powell over ‘deceptive’ testimony on ‘Palace of Versailles’ $2.5B HQ >>> pressure is on Amazon deploys its 1 millionth robot in a sign of more job automation, great ? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent GOES OFF on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the board, says they have "Tariff Derangement Syndrome" who refuse to cut interest rates #GOLD ''own it''.. still... US Banks can now classify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset as Basel III just went into effect today U.S Mortgage delinquency rates unexpectedly rise in May UK Gilt yields spiked shortly after Keir Starmer refused to confirm whether Rachel Reeves would remain as Chancellor in an eventful PMQs during which she appeared visibly upset #GBP >>>> the only way you stop governments running bad policies / deficits, is for the Central Bank to let bond yields go UP, eventually it is a good thing, higher yields will for the UK to get its fiscal house in oda ! before anyone else >>> Abolish ‘triple lock’ on UK pensions to prevent financial cliff-edge, says IFS The U.S has no realistic way to meet the huge surge in demand from AI/Video House taking key vote on Trump budget bill amid pressure from GOP holdouts US Senate strikes AI regulation ban from Trump megabill | Reuters U.S. lifts chip software curbs on China amid trade truce Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent GOES OFF on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the board, says they have "Tariff Derangement Syndrome" who refuse to cut interest rates "We got a 50 basis point cut last September [2024], and inflation was HIGHER! [...] I guess this tariff https://t.co/jfcuKCTUzv " / X Jerome Powell silence on his future complicates Trump Fed Chair search Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac boss urges Congress probe Fed’s Jerome Powell over ‘deceptive’ testimony on ‘Palace of Versailles’ $2.5B HQ UK bonds suffer biggest selloff since October 2022 as worries build over finance minister The fate of France's prime minister is in the far right's hands – again Mortgage refinance demand surges, as interest rates drop further Mortgage delinquency rates unexpectedly rise in May | Mortgage Professional ADP private sector jobs report shows surprise decline in June Full Interview with John Ketchum | POLITICO Energy Summit China's EUV breakthrough: Huawei, SMIC reportedly advancing LDP lithography, eye 3Q25 trial, 2026 rollout - Global SMT & Packaging Asia City A.M. on X: "Gilt yields spiked shortly after Keir Starmer refused to confirm whether Rachel Reeves would remain as Chancellor in an eventful PMQs during which she appeared visibly upset. The prime minister defended the government’s U-turn on the welfare bill, which could now prevent Labour https://t.co/HGaORTYPCE " / X Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again - USFunds Amazon deploys its 1 millionth robot in a sign of more job automation Not good for jobs clearly! Microsoft laying off about 9,000 employees in latest round of cuts Centene plunges after pulling forecast on revenue pressure from Obamacare plans Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️The US stock market breadth has almost NEVER been this weak: The S&P 500 breadth has dropped to the second-lowest level in at least 20 YEARS. This means the recent S&P 500 rally has been driven by just a handful of stocks, and not many names have hit their 52-week high. https://t.co/xAUJFSVBTR " / X

Markets : equity no lower but didn't rally on the 'BBBill' announcement, oversold USD (doesn't mean it has to rally a lot, we could simply trade rangy for a while), Copper looks set to break up, buy a decent dip in metals still, while #GDX #SIL should continue to show signs of catching up with spot gold and silver, XPT etc. SPX, time for a hedging trade, #VIX 3mos calls etc... Trump’s megabill squeaks through Senate, but House can still reject changes >>> In the previous 24 hours, Trump’s threatened Elon Musk, Thomas Massie, Japan, a judge in Israel, the CEO of AT&T, Jerome Powell, Canada, Thom Tillis, a Forbes reporter, Harvard, & migrants with being eaten by Burmese pythons in the Everglades, while releasing a new line of colognes, what a time to be alive :-), and Trump threatened to arrest NYC Mayoral Candidate Mamdani, calls him a communist and says that he may be in this country illegally USD : a lot of this around now... The decline in the US Dollar is historic... Mr Market is very short USdollar by now, see Saxo's Ole report below ''' The dollar short hit a four-year high''' JPM's quarterly spread : SepQ 4955 / 5870 Put Spread vs 6505 Call Rotation keep the bull market alive, Small caps up while the rest cools off $IWM The Warren buffet indicator is now the most overvalued in history at 205.69%, probably nothing to worry about... Trump hints at legal action — and possible deportation — against Elon Musk, all fun and games then.. Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs. Powell: Not going to rule in or rule out any particular meeting. Officials will “be monitoring, particularly, what does show up in terms of inflation or what does not show up." On the labor market: “We watch very carefully for signs of unexpected weakness.” Starmer wins vote on UK welfare reform but is damaged by big rebellion US Banks can not classify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset as Basel III just went into effect today COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-Year high, Crude slump rattles speculators | Saxo COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-Year high, Crude slump rattles speculators   Key points: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 24 June 2025 The dollar short hit a four-year high amid ongoing demand for EUR and JPY, as well as short covering activity in CAD. Commodity swings, especially across the energy sector, give managed money accounts a rough ride. Price weakness drives modest reductions in gold and silver longs, with buy-the-dip still a preferred strategy. Lukewarm response to surging platinum. Coffee long slumps to a two-year low, sugar short hits a five-year high, while demand for hogs drives net long to a record Copper price surge signals strain, but no acute shortage yet Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs Trump’s megabill clears Senate, sending it back to House Senate Republican tax bill passes 'SALT' deduction cap of $40,000 Trump 'big beautiful' bill axes $7,500 EV tax credit after September Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again - USFunds Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "The facts and data are on our side. President Trump’s historic 2017 tax cuts drove a major economic boost that benefited all Americans in his first term. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill doubles down on that trajectory with no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, 100% expensing, https://t.co/ZnHUk1Q8EU " / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Goldman says it now expects a better than even chance the Fed's first rate cut is in September (previously, December), followed by cuts at the last two meetings of the year (for a total of -75 bps this year). "The very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit https://t.co/jEmFdKVuLK " / X VolSignals on X: "HERE'S YOUR NEW QUARTERLY COLLAR SPXW Sep Quarterly (9/30/25) 4940 - 5850 / 6480 Put Spread Collar with 6/30 5905 Call the fund buys put spread in the collar 37,800x times, buys 0DTE call 17,800x times pays ~$497.375m check back at the close for details on the re-strike https://t.co/l4i85oJ5pp " / X JohannesBorgen on X: "Why is Deutsche stock hammered today? An old theme is coming back to haunt them: Basel 4! Quick thread. https://t.co/vuSjL6BCxA " / X NEXTA on X: "👀 Trump Hints at Legal Action — and Possible Deportation — Against Elon Musk Asked about the possibility of deporting Elon Musk, President Trump didn’t rule it out: 🗣️ “I don’t know. We’ll have to take a look. We may have to launch a criminal case against Elon. You know what https://t.co/02RFzay5G0 " / X Astonishing deal.. Cristiano Ronaldo’s £492m Saudi deal: two cynical regimes form a strategic alliance | Cristiano Ronaldo | The Guardian Starmer wins vote on UK welfare reform but is damaged by big rebellion