Site Search

GOLD new highs, what else! Markets : still no show from Trump.. ?, Syria exports first crude oil shipment in 14 years, BYD : scale meets price war (Saxo research), VdL's plane was forced to land blind after 'russia jammed GPS', BRICS Leaders Schedule Virtual Meeting to Discuss Trump Tariffs, is France the new Italy (will find out shortly), CTA positioning in US equities officially sits in the 100th percentile and is now max long (chart available), #duration global yields sending a clear message (fiscal risk going global), equity markets stable/slightly softer/losing momentum, metals higher, in fact this is the only asset up very lately, as Trump put pressure on FED, even BTC is down 10% off highs recently, and we now have the new world order with China, Russia and India.. thanks to recent politicla fragility, shall we say, in US and Europe..Ukraine was part of the EU’s tariff deal with the US — Politico India reduced exposure to UST0s while boosting GOLD holdings in FX reserves A little bit of a U-turn >>> Fed should be independent but has made mistakes, Treasury Secretary Bessent says, and Putin has, in a despicable manner, increased the bombing campaign [of Ukraine]. So I think with President Trump, all options are on the table, and I think we'll be examining those very closely this week. BoJ`s Himino said the CBk should keep raising interest rates but warned of high risks to the economy Trump calls India-U.S. trade relationship ‘a totally one sided disaster’ after Modi visits China, China's Xi rolls out carpet for Ukraine war aggressors, sidelining Trump China called on the Global South to follow it, Russia, and India in embracing “free trade” and a “more just and reasonable global governance system.” (FT); or ‘China unveils plan for new world order’ (Telegraph) as “Xi Jinping lashes out at ‘bullying behaviour’ in apparent attack on Trump’s tariff war against Beijing” France - French Far Right Builds Momentum as Premier Heads Toward Exit - The party's president, Jordan Bardella, and its prominent figure, Marine Le Pen, have made clear their intention to bring down the government, which is also opposed by the left. President Emmanuel Macron could appoint a new prime minister, but Bardella suggests another election might be inevitable due to the political stalemate, with Le Pen saying her party is ready for whenever Macron decides to dissolve the National Assembly Nestlé Fires CEO Following probe of pomantic Relationship with subordinate - Laurent Freixe is out after just a year in the top job at the food giant, which is trying to sell a number of underperforming businesses ADB to fund Pakistan's core Belt and Road TheEconomist "Fear the deficit-populism doom loop: Politicians, particularly in Europe, are in a terrible bind." Spain, often heard the economy is booming lately, yet 10.4% unemployment, youth unemployment nearer to 23% .. Trump calls India-U.S. trade relationship 'a totally one sided disaster' China’s Xi Jinping rolls out ‘red carpet’ for Russia’s Vladimir Putin BYD scale meets price war | Saxo Gold touches new record as latest Wall Street prediction sees prices reaching $3,500 Own it..own them (metals)...and #GDX #SIL etc Syria reowm them (metals) and sumes heavy crude oil exports from Tartus port after years of suspension Trump news at a glance: Bessent says markets not worried by Fed interference as Lagarde warns of ‘danger’ | Trump administration | The Guardian Marine Le Pen seizes her moment to shake France – POLITICO The student loan tax bomb hidden in Trump's new bill Nestle dismisses chief executive after probe into relationship with employee ADB to fund Pakistan's core Belt and Road project as China steps aside - Nikkei Asia Reeves sidelined as Starmer hires new economic team in surprise reshuffle (1) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the article in @TheEconomist, "Fear the deficit-populism doom loop: Politicians, particularly in Europe, are in a terrible bind." #economy #deficit #debt #markets https://t.co/rblqN5JfpR " / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from #Spain, which still has the highest unemployment rate in Europe at 10.4%, despite a booming economy & housing market. The culprit is Spain’s rigid labor rules, which have created a two-tier system dominated by temporary contracts. Precarious jobs are common, https://t.co/FMlhfiI6TO " / X NEXTA on X: "Ukraine was part of the EU’s tariff deal with the US — Politico The EU made concessions to the US in the trade war, agreeing to 15% tariffs and abandoning countermeasures in exchange for American support for Ukraine. This was openly confirmed for the first time by European https://t.co/WVlCt8m2K7 " / X

Week ahead : U.S labour day today, Aug ISM tom, JOLTS Wed, ADP and Friday's NFP report in focus, U.S court ruls many of Trump's global tariffs are illegal, China's Xi, Russia's Putin share vision for new global order at security forum, 25+ foreign postal services suspended mail to the U.S. in the run-up to the de minimis deadline on Friday, investors underestimate Trump's threat to the FED, and finally, Tension between US, Venezuela rises with military buildup Markets : few rumours regrading Trump's health, he hasn't made public remarks since 25th August, and Epstein files again, tariffs to India all about nobel prize vote, NVDA down BABA up, QQQ SPX closed on highs, hard to think of many reasons why investors will want to chase this higher over next few weeks! France risk coming up in Sep >>> expect a correction, buy some vols, await patiently, no need to chase higher from here. Metals continue higher, what else..FED cutting in a 3% inflation environment... XAG finally 40+, XPT and PALL got room to shine too.. No longer enemies? Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi meet for the first time in 7 years, pledging closer ties as they brace for the economic fallout from the US trade war UK secures largest ever warship deal from Norway, Norway canceled plans for purchase of US ships after seeing Trump admin turn off Ukraine's weapons abilities remotely, ordered $13.5 billion in UK built ships France's Olivier Faure, leader of the French socialists, confirms his party will vote ‘no confidence.’ So Bayrou and his budget will be toast on Sept 8th The number of unemployed people in Germany surged above 3 million for the first time in a decade, labour office figures showed on Friday, as the labour market of Europe's biggest economy is squeezed by two years of economic contraction Axios: Trump considering stepping back from Ukraine peace talks. WH official: “We are going to sit back and watch. Let them fight it out for a while and see what happens.” The reason Trump increased tariffs on India has nothing to do with its purchase of Russian oil, and nothing to do with Russia’s genocide in Ukraine. It’s all, ridiculously, because India wouldn’t nominate Trump for the Nobel peace prize On the surface the U.S. economy still looks fine, but underneath the hood things are slowing down #macro / Thread Swiss Gold Industry Lobby Rejects Idea of US Relocation - Switzerland’s trade group for gold refiners opposes a relocation of some operations to the US to ease a trade imbalance between the countries and help tariff negotiations, newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported The U.S. is demanding that the EU give up Russian oil and gas and impose sanctions on India and China, Axios reports . According to the outlet, the U.S. does not want to bear the costs of pressuring Russia alone and wants Europe to make a more significant contribution. Washington is urging Europe to impose measures against Russia that include a complete halt to all oil and gas purchases, as well as the introduction of EU secondary tariffs against India and China, similar to those already applied by the U.S. to India. Economists worry Trump could overhaul Federal Reserve Tension between US, Venezuela rises with military buildup Fed governor Cook to seek court order blocking her firing by Trump Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin says he and Trump came to ‘understanding’ about how to end war at Alaska summit China’s Xi welcomes Putin and Modi as Trump roils global order – POLITICO New world order... Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida killed in Gaza, claims Israel French PM Bayrou should 'say goodbye,' says Socialist leader Scottish shipyards to build more frigates after Norway deal US court rules many of Trump's global tariffs are illegal - BBC News NEXTA on X: "🇨🇳🇮🇳 No longer enemies? Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi meet for the first time in 7 years The two longtime Asian rivals pledged to deepen cooperation, Bloomberg reports. China’s leader said the countries need to be friends and good neighbors: “The Dragon and the Elephant must https://t.co/pDFPRpKakZ " / X EndGame Macro on X: "On the surface the U.S. economy still looks fine, but underneath the hood things are slowing down. Growth trackers like the Fed’s weekly index are sitting around 2% not a collapse, but weaker than the bounce we saw last year. Even the Atlanta Fed is still showing Q3 growth at" / X US makes it harder for SK Hynix, Samsung to make chips in China | Reuters Divisions at the Bank of England: a balancing act – The Armchair Trader Exclusive-Meta created flirty chatbots of Taylor Swift, other celebrities without permission

Taxes, land taxes, wealth taxes, could other countries go similar to US with worldwide taxes in the future ? stealth taxes through higher tariffs coming and/or cut government spending (bondvigilantes are watching..) - French and UK budget up next in focus Markets : important PCE today (2.9% core exp), NFP next Friday and payroll adjustment on 9th Sep, French confidence vote 8th Sep, ECB meeting 10th Sep, and FOMC 17th Sep, French backlash very likely, much higher taxes rerquired/cut spending, same UK budget coming up (30th October), Trump's fight with everyone continues, the EU might actually stand up on Techs, yields curves steepening globally ( Japan’s bond market just flashed its weakest signal in 16 years) , #NVDA overdone, The Fed’s $2.5 TRILLION cash sponge has almost vanished (KEY..), and U.S tariffs exemptions on small orders ends today >>>> best be prepared and buy a bit of vol/hedge/reduce risk #NVDA Sales growth is down 20% last 4 qtrs with $1.5T equity mkt cap added over that same period, The income statement says they made $26.4B, up 56% YoY. The cash flow statement says operating cash flow is flat YoY and free cash flow is down 50% QoQ First fall in German unemployment claims since late 2022 and the IAB survey is flying, positive turn of event there! Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday claiming President Donald Trump has no power to remove her from office Stand up to Trump on Big Tech, says EU antitrust chief. Bloc must be prepared to walk away from trade deal with US if it retaliates against Brussels’ digital laws, warns Teresa Ribera Yield curves keep steepening globally , particularly driven by 30-year yields. In US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022 AI Déjà Vu. The AI spending boom is a bubble — reminscent of that which sparked a major wave of services restructuring in the 1990s / Stephen Roach 1987 Echoes in 2025: Inflation Credibility and Market Fragility Silver hits highest closing price in almost 14 years French PM faces backlash over holiday excuse A US tariff exemption for small orders ends Friday. It's a big deal to some shoppers and businesses Lisa Cook: Trump appointee Bill Pulte files 2nd criminal referral Stand up to Trump on Big Tech, says EU antitrust chief – The Irish Times Trump White House picks Kennedy deputy Jim O’Neill to replace fired CDC chief – The Irish Times Angela Rayner purchases second home for over £700,000 sparking 'hypocrisy' claims Treasury ‘considering taxing landlords’ rent’ to raise £2bn | Property | The Guardian New Zealand Central Bank Chair Neil Quigley resigns 1987 Echoes in 2025: Inflation Credibility and Market Fragility AI Déjà Vu - by Stephen Roach - Conflict Generative AI reshapes U.S. job market, Stanford study shows Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump says he is ‘not happy’ about Kyiv strike as US approves new missiles sale Tesla Robotaxi fails miserably in Cathie Wood street test - TheStreet Tesla Europe sales plunge 40%, Chinese EV rival BYD up 225% Nvidia's top two mystery customers made up 39% of its Q2 revenue NVIDIA: From hyper growth to high growth, but is it enough? – The Armchair Trader When Art Meets Influence: Inside the Magic of Locarno Wife of jailed South Korean ex-president indicted for corruption abribery and stock manipulation Energy giant investigated over wood sourcing after whistleblower claims Just comnplete nonsense and nearly outright fraud, lies from UK officials, take your pick StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Japan’s bond market just flashed its weakest signal in 16 years. The country’s 2-year government bond auction just collapsed in demand. This tiny crack could ripple into U.S. rates, mortgages, and the entire Fed outlook. (a thread) https://t.co/cnkthzHCc8 " / X StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 The Fed’s $2.5 TRILLION cash sponge has almost vanished. Now the balance is down 99%, just $22B left. This collapse could mark the most important shift in market plumbing in years. (a thread) https://t.co/6RJM317IdA " / X

Denmark's foreign minister has summoned the top United States diplomat in the country following reports of alleged covert influence operations in Greenland . Markets : NVDA 'as expected?, earnings slowdown, china risk, $60bn sharebuybacks is most of their cash, for now every $10 invested brings $3 of earnings¨¨...cant' last, in reality it's a slight miss, depends on what you want to look at, as always....', India braces for 50% tariffs, GOOG has eliminated 35% of managers last 12months, markets closing on highs at end of August, metals, #GDX and #SIL been performing super well still (finally the penny is dropping..), september next up : FED decision, ECB, French no confidence vote, political crisis possibly, very highly valued and concentrated risk (MAG7 etc)..and much more >>> an easy hedge for Sep/Oct ? buy some #VIX Axios : President Trump is gradually testing, stretching and gutting the independence of America’s major institutions, leaving few stones unturned in his pursuit of unchecked power Russian and Chinese submarines carried out their first joint patrol in the Asia-Pacific, Modi issues buy India-made call as Trump's 50% tariffs take effect Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes EU to Propose Removing US Tariffs This Week to Meet Trump Demand  . The EU will seek to fast track legislation to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods by the end of the week. The European Commission will give preferential tariff rates on certain seafood and agricultural goods, according to people familiar with the matter. US CDC chief fired after weeks in role, challenges ouster as four top officials resign Europe’s Century of humiliation” could be just beginning’ and ‘EU doomed to “irrelevance” in face of US, Chinese competition, Meloni warns’ - as ‘France’s PM warns: “The life of the nation is at stake” over his budget-related no-confidence vote “Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.” Paul Tudor Jones Nvidia's $15B China Shock: Earnings Showdown Could Jolt Entire Market Dan Niles on X: "I thought NVDA would report a very strong quarter and was more concerned about their China commentary. I was wrong. In reality, they missed expectations of datacenter revs (though by just 1%) for the first time since the intro of ChatGPT in late 2022 and beat overall rev" / X ''' when there is an issue with a semiconductor company after a few years of beating consistently, one should beware…!!??... NVDA’s miss in datacenter revs is despite a strong quarter from NVDA's big hyperscaler customers and strong capex expectations''' Bank of Korea raises GDP and inflation forecasts; keeps rates unchanged Japan's top trade negotiator reportedly cancels U.S. trip Denmark summons US envoy over claims of interference in Greenland EU doomed to ‘irrelevance’ in face of US, Chinese competition, Meloni warns – POLITICO Russian, Chinese Submarines Conduct 1st-Ever Joint Patrol In Pacific Region Iran warns European powers of consequences for sanctions at nuclear talks | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera Trump's 50% tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases take effect Trump Knee-Caps America’s Institutions French political crisis brings back recession risk, Carrefour CEO says US CDC chief fired after weeks in role, challenges ouster as four top officials resign | Reuters Trump administration to take control of Washington's Union Station | Reuters Google executive says company has cut a third of its managers P/E no-one cares, but it is 200+ Tesla Europe sales plunge 40%, Chinese EV rival BYD up 225% Germany: Rheinmetall opens new artillery ammunition factory The Kobeissi Letter on X: "It's official: Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes. Japan's Core CPI was 3.4% in July, one of the highest readings since the 1980s. By comparison, US core CPI inflation was 3.1%. https://t.co/ZjLsDImP1B " / X

Markets : Get set for end of FED independence (and thus other CB's eventually), French FM talks possible need of IMF bailout!..huge budge decision coming, things starting to look ugly (got to hedge some EURO here, see below), and won't be long until China/Russia/India loose their pentience with Trump... >>> All ears and eyes on NVDA, markets way too rich (buybacks, liquidities the only thing holding them up), FED cuts all but priced in into 2026 too..and #macro economy slowing/slow at best in many parts #debtwilltearsusapart ! Fed - Get Ready for the End of Fed Independence - Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the central bank 'Powerful optics': China's Xi to welcome Putin, Modi in grand show of solidarity >>> there is only SO much they will take from Trump, before they go their own way... OK so tonight,  8% of the S&P and 14% of the NDX reports, oh hang on it's #NVDA ! The UST bond market has now fully priced 2 rate cuts by year-end and 3 more cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.00% (lower bound) #EURO >>>French politics, is another potentially BIG downside risk for EURO clearly (again), but this time we also have a EURO weighted index (NEER) close to all time highs and chine deflation inthe background, U. S tariffs, so some pretty good reasons for ECB to turn dovish and guide lower at next meeting >>> 2y French bonds trading highest in Europe, higher than Greece >>> next, will Athens send a Troika to PAris to dictate terms of theri fiscal plan..? ...reverse of 2010... Lutnick: "Think about this. We give hundreds of millions to each university. Tens of billions, up to $200 billion a year. They take that money and they do research and they get patents. And you know who keeps them? The scientists and the university. And we who pay all the money, the American taxpayers, we get nothing. This has got to change." U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick announces that the U.S. will be issuing economic data on blockchain, beginning with GDP data This is extraordinary. For the many of you who wonder how the EU could agree to such a humiliating "deal" with Trump, wonder no more/Thread Fed - Get Ready for the End of Fed Independence - Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the central bank - WSJ President Trump considering Stephen Miran and David Malpass as possible replacements for Lisa Cook on the Federal Reserve's board of governors - WSJ Trump’s Fed Gamble Risks Pushing Key Bond Rates Even Higher - the 10-year Treasury yield, which determines what Americans pay for mortgages, business loans, and other debts, has been stubbornly high due to tariffs, the budget deficit, and Trump's tax cuts. Trump's efforts to reshape the Fed could keep bond markets on edge and long-term debt yields elevated, as investors are concerned about the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility and autonomy - BBG   Trump push to fire Fed governor sends markets scrambling Why Trump firing Fed gov. Lisa Cook matters to YOU Trump’s punitive 50% tariff takes effect in India In the Matter of Lisa Cook - Paul Krugman Firing Lisa Cook is just th beginning fro Trump... (1) Aaron Rupar on X: "Scott Bessent praises Trump like a parent praises their 3-year-old https://t.co/z2ZiFDdFgx " / X Pentagon’s tech innovation head abruptly steps down - POLITICO US May Offer Air and Intelligence Support to Guard Peace in Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/china/powerful-optics-chinas-xi-welcome-putin-modi-grand-show-solidarity-2025-08-26/ Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is extraordinary. For the many of you who wonder how the EU could agree to such a humiliating "deal" with Trump, wonder no more. We have an unusually straightforward answer directly from the horse's mouth: Sabine Weyand, who's the Directorate-General for Trade at the EU https://t.co/YCqilWMjpQ " / X >>>> There you have it, she said the quiet part out loud: the EU is in such a terrible strategic situation and EU leaders have so little courage that they're unable and unwilling to say 'no' to even the most humiliating demands French finance minister sees risk of IMF intervention if government falls It's coming, unless they manage some DRASTIC spending cuts, big budget decision coming les amis.. French government likely to fall as PM faces new no-confidence vote over debt crisis Xi Unleashes China’s Biggest Purge of Military Leaders Since Mao Gaza latest: Hospital rejects Israel's claims troops 'saw Hamas camera' before deadly attack | World News | Sky News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin’s forces breach Dnipropetrovsk while Moscow strikes key energy facility

September high volatility likely, as it often is/has been over the years (higher VOL=risk reduction) Markets : USD and UST's ( whatch long end #duration !) under pressure as FED independence questioned with the attempt at firing Lisa Cook, Musk sues APPL and OpenAI, saying they hurt competition, Trump also talked about 50% tariffs to hit India soon (and China on magnets!), French government risks collapse after Bayrou calls high-stakes confidence vote  (#EURJPY #EUR rather than UK, the IMF is more likely to be involved with France...), overall #macro picture is slowing from China, to the U.S and Europe... >>> The near 70% decline in the #VIX over the last 4-5months weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history (action:...time for a hedging trade, BUY some !), Japan 30y 3.22% too So let me get this straight: the Republican Party now supports consolidating power in a single individual to enforce protectionist tariffs, centrally manage the economy, take government ownership stakes in private companies, and pressure the Federal Reserve to create inflation in order to fund skyrocketing deficits Trump: China has to give us magnets, if they don't we'll charge them 200% tariff or something, he said he was removing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage improprieties, though her term runs to 2038 and the legality of the move is unclear!..>>> This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates Fed independence questioned: The action deepened concerns about political interference at the central bank, following Trump’s past threats against Fed chairman Jerome Powell >>> Now that Trump has fired Cook (for cause), this could set off a chain reaction where Trump now appoints 2 more governors to the FOMC, Trump would hold a 4-3 majority on the board of governors (would move to 5-2 if Powell left after his chair is over) Latest updates Price to Earnings Ratio (TTM) Palantir: 487 Tesla: 197 NVIDIA: 57 Netflix: 51 Microsoft: 37 Amazon: 35 Apple: 35 S&P: 29 Meta: 27 Google: 22 Moody’s economist says U.S. is edging near recession — with some states already in one. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi placed blame on high tariffs and “restrictive” immigration policies for the economy’s downturn Australia blames Iran for two antisemitic attacks, expels its envoy Copper and potash are among six new proposed additions to the US Geological Survey's list of critical minerals... Moody’s chief economist says some states are in recession Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️This is the worst BEAR MARKET in US Treasuries in modern history: The 20-year US Treasury drawdown has been ~38% since 2020, the largest in at least 100 years. Not even the 1970s or 1980s saw such a large decline, even when inflation was much higher. Public debt crisis? https://t.co/KpHy4eWDxZ " / X French government risks collapse after Bayrou calls high-stakes confidence vote  – POLITICO French finance minister sees risk of IMF intervention if government falls De minimis exemption: European carriers suspend shipments and others Australia, Japan join countries suspending some parcel shipments to the US The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Fed Governor Cook says President Trump has no authority to fire her and that she will not resign. Fed Governor Cook’s lawyer said they plan to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” Trump’s “illegal action.”" / X Trump threatens 200% tariff on China over magnet export curbs The authoritarian government .. Truth Details | Truth Social USGS expands critical minerals list to 54 - Metal Tech News Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "China intelligently went in and they sort of took a monopoly of the world's magnets. Nobody needed magnets until they convinced everybody 20 years ago, 'let's all do magnets.' There were many other ways that the world could have gone ... we're heavily into the world of https://t.co/TqQ4dMpWPb " / X Elon Musk's xAI sues Apple and OpenAI over AI competition Nissan shares fall over 6% as Mercedes-Benz plans to shed its stake Australia blames Iran for two antisemitic attacks, expels its envoy StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Something strange is happening in China. Stocks just hit a 10-year high while the economy slumps. And the U.S. market is showing the exact same split. (a thread) https://t.co/itMArydEbS " / X

Week ahead : U.S Housing, confidence, GDP, jobs, inflation, Nvidia earnings up next, and the usual Trump tweet of course, UKR, Israel news, NVIDIA's market cap is now just ~$1 TRILLION below the Japanese stock market Markets : JH kept its reputation for a decent few moves! Powell surprised Mr Market and was a littel 'dovish' (#macro been weaker lately..not surprising really, next big event is NFP next week!), rates 10bps down, USD 1% softer and SPX/QQQ loved the sound of it, note DAX is actually lower than it was when the news came out n Friday, #BTC down few percent as we start the week (big picture failed 120K area) BOJ’s Ueda expects tightening job market to push up wages, ECB rate cut talk may resume after September pause (key is presser) Higher tariffs are kicking in. Walmart and other retailers said about their impact U.S Housing affordability just hit a new all-time low . The median American household now needs to spend 48% of their income to buy the median-priced home — worse than the peak of the 2006 bubble European wind giant Orsted plunges ~19% after Trump administration halts construction of key wind farm. The Danish company was already struggling financially, trying to raise >$9 billions in an emergency equity injection Telegraph Britain ‘heading towards IMF bailout’. Economists warn of 1970s-style debt crisis unless Chancellor changes course >>> doubt the '76 play is justified, but to put things inperspective, conditions would require up to 150bn £ in spending cuts!...in contaxt to the failed attempt to cut 2, 3 or even £5bn ... Key Takeaways from the Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Conference Interest Rate Outlook : Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely on course for a rate cut in September, pointing to a “shifting balance of risks” in the economic outlook. Monetary Policy Strategy Update : Powell announced adjustments to the Fed’s policy framework, including the rollback of the “makeup strategy” adopted in 2020 and a revision to the language describing the central bank’s maximum employment objective. Political Tensions : The conference was overshadowed by political controversy, as former President Donald Trump criticized Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating he would dismiss her if she does not resign amid allegations of mortgage fraud. Stocks and data to watch the week of August 25 though 29 Market Quick Take - 25 August 2025 | Saxo Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Flash Crash Erases the Powell Spike as Options Signal Lingering Market Jitters VanEck warns: Why Bitcoin treasury companies could face capital erosion Powell avoided the elephant in the room at Jackson Hole ECB’s Nagel: There is a ‘High Bar’ for another rate cut BOJ's Ueda expects tightening job market to push up wages ECB rate cut talk may resume after September pause, sources say | Reuters Rachel Reeves ‘heading towards 70s-style IMF bailout’ Retail earnings: Walmart, Target, Home Depot discuss tariffs Canada rolls back tariffs on the U.S. in a trade approach shift SoftBank and Trump may not be enough to save Intel Meta unveil Hypernova smart glasses with display, wristband at Connect The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What is happening here? Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY. Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt. Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy? (a thread) https://t.co/YsC7aRlQ1A " / X The bullish case, fuelled by easy money Dan Niles on X: "I wrote in a post last Sunday August 17th: “I continue to believe the mkt melts up till Thanksgiving with easy money addicted investors emboldened by signs at Jackson Hole of upcoming rate cuts. Despite important economic releases remaining such as PCE, CPI and PPI before the" / X China retail investors are using savings to fuel stock market bull run Israel carries out dozens of strikes on Yemen's Sanaa France summons US ambassador for panning Macron's response to rising antisemitism | The Times of Israel Zelensky thanks King Charles for ‘inspirational’ letter sent to mark Ukraine’s Independence Day

I wonder if Jerome Pow is going to make it there...The 'Million Dollar Cowboy Bar' Markets : FED Sep cut priced again around 60%, so anything goes basically (was fully priced 1week ago)..USD reacts, QQQ mostly reacted too...Fed's Hammack 'current conditions don't support a Sep cut', U.S PMI was a little higher than expected, all about Powell in JH, but since payrolls are key, focus should quickly shift to next employment data day early Sep, the last before Fed Sep decision. Japan's 20-Year Bond Yield hits highest level in 25+ years, #GDX kept on motoring this week even though GOLD prices remained stable.. Let's see what Powell has to say, risk been reduced, awaiting new opportunities at better levels, tactically few #QQQ shorts established earlier in the week (AI top, RSI's, valuations, short-term momentum turned etc) Fed's Bostic: Crypto is too small to put financial stability in play Redfin: Home purchases are getting canceled at a record rate The US-EU release a bare-bones account of their trade deal, but it's a work in progress The United States and European Union say they've agreed on the details of a trade deal that would keep tariffs high for now on European vehicles and lower them on computer chips, but it will take weeks — or months — of additional negotiations to iron out remaining issues. White House officials hailed a joint statement released Thursday in Washington and Brussels as an important step toward fleshing out the commitments reached by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at their impromptu July summit Nvidia Corp. has instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics Co. and Amkor Technology Inc. to stop production related to the H20 AI chip Fitch Ratings: US consumer spending slows sharply as labor market weakens, tariffs raise inflation >>> It’s taking a longer and longer time for jobless Americans to get new jobs. Continuing jobless claims have been steadily grinding higher, now at new post-2021 highs Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured Watch Fed's Bostic: Crypto Too Small to Put Financial Stability in Play - Bloomberg Wall Street closes down as investors brace for Powell's speech | Reuters The US and EU release a bare-bones account of their trade deal, but it's a work in progress The deep transformation of China’s consumption structure: a complex picture beyond “downshifting” U.S. Consumer Spending Slows Sharply as Labor Market Weakens, Tariffs Raise Inflation | Forex Factory Meta said to sign $10-billion cloud deal with Google - TechCentral Nvidia Asks Suppliers to Halt H20 Work, Information Says Redfin Reports Home Purchases Are Getting Canceled at a Record Rate Redollarization and Digital Statecraft: How Stablecoins Are Rewiring Global Power | Financial Sense Haven't spent muich time thinking about all this, but interesting interview BTC248: Bitcoin’s Institutiona…–We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network – Apple Podcasts (44) Updates Updates: Palestinians face death, displacement amid Israel Gaza City attack France slams Netanyahu's claim that it fuels antisemitism as 'abject' and 'erroneous' Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump says Kyiv needs to ‘fight back’ after Putin launches massive serial assault German economy shrank by 0.3% in Q2, more than initially expected | Reuters Gold and Watches Boost Swiss Exports to US Before 39% Tariff - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : ALL about Jackson Hole tone on rates (prediction=total data dependence, job data key now..!) , Trump wants another FED member to leave, and that was even before FOMC minutes (risk of inflation outweighs concerns over labor market.. >>> and again.. #macro '' Meta is freezing all AI hiring, per WSJ'' AND The Federal Reserve didn’t provide any liquidity to Wall Street between Aug 14 till yesterday (Aug 19) and decline -4%...again and again, FED and Trump been juicing the market, if they don't..it falls.. tiz indeed all about liquidities, as the macro picture has worsened and valuations are way too high (Shiller PE near 40, Buffett indicator at 200% of GDP, tariffs choking margins as demand freezes, consumer going into hiding. while Trump continues to run the US economy like a mafia boss (FT).. #timeforahedgingtrade #AI : sure is/has been one of the most exciting things in tech right, ever probably, but it’s surely starting to feel more like a house of cards Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central bank’s rate-setting committee >>> 2018 Sep-Oct, Powell gave strong pushback to Trump's calls to cut rates. Markets sold off until January. History doesn't repeat but often rhymes >>> Tom Lee now saying a -10% pull back between Sept - Oct. We are consistently ahead of everyone Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.20% - the highest level on record, 20's highest since 1999 Trump Targets Corporate America to Achieve Economic and Foreign Policy Goals >>> this is SO WHERE it's going , taking-thieving stakes in various companies across America, not much different than China then !!... UK : Reeves considers replacing stamp duty with new property tax. Exclusive: Treasury examines options including tax on homes sold for more than £500,000 as well as overhaul of council tax Good old # Brexit... which is battering Britain’s services sector, exports to the EU are down nearly 16%, with red tape, licensing hurdles and loss of mutual recognition costing firms clients and cash. Far from “Global Britain”, we’re watching our strongest industries bleed competitiveness China scrutiny of Nvidia chips sparked by ’insulting’ remarks from US official- FT Kenya is in talks to convert the debt it owes to China from USD to RMB. About $5 billion of its $40 billion in external debt is owed to China/Thread fomcminutes20250730.pdf FOMC: Several Officials Said Current Rate May Not Be Far Above Neutral - Minutes - Several Flagged Risk Of Inflation Expectations Anchoring - Many Noted Full Effect Of Tariffs Could Take Some Time - Majority Saw Employment Risk Outweighed By Inflation Risk - Several Noted Concerns About Elevated Asset Valuations - Several Expected Firms Would Pass Tariffs To Customers >>>>> still some work for Trump to do to move the majority of the FOMC, more 'firing' needed! 🙂 Fed minutes August 2025 Trump’s roving banditry will undermine the US economy Trump’s roving banditry will undermine the US economy On tariffs and tax the president acts like a mafia boss, but not a very good one China scrutiny of Nvidia chips sparked by ’insulting’ remarks from US official- FT By Investing.com Trump Targets Corporate America to Achieve Economic and Foreign Policy Goals Trump wants Fed's Lisa Cook out over mortgage fraud claims Copper: Trump slams 'anti-American' pushback over Arizona project Germany's businesses want Berlin to walk its talk https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/aug/18/rachel-reeves-stamp-duty-property-tax-council-tax Higher taxes, one way or another, not just in UK...are coming, get used to it Target gets a new CEO amid revenue drop Kakashii on X: "I'm old enough to remember investors' concern about the rate of cash burn at Meta during 2022, when they punished the stock with a drop of up to 77% from its peak, until Mark gave in and cut capex. Now we are facing an almost identical situation where Meta has 40% less cash on https://t.co/Cx5Oikeu1r " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 Kenya is in talks to convert the debt it owes to China from USD to RMB. About $5 billion of its $40 billion in external debt is owed to China. It makes sense for developing countries to diversify their external debt away from a single currency. https://t.co/oBFwr6DELg " / X Police in Brazil say Bolsonaro drafted asylum plea to Milei in 2024 | Buenos Aires Times

Meta to downsize its AI division, some executives expected to leave as bubble fears mount — NYT...this after yesterday's call from Altman (AI bubble etc..) #macro Markets : U.S Govt wants Intel equity, Jackson Hole creating a little bit of angst in markets, opt expiries (less gamma momentum higher-small reset) >>> as discussed recently, we used this rally to reduce exposure for clients, will await nbetter levels to re-enter, frothy markets etc.. and tactically on spec side, sold some shorts/ hedged #QQQ, Altman and Meta warnings, ChatGPT5 seen as a bit of a disapointment, momentum has turned (PLTR classic example..), and speculative longs stretched..as often these days, #BTC also doing its usual advanced warning ahead of Powell, trading as risk asset Trump accused Powell of “hurting” the housing industry “very badly” and reiterated his call for a significant rate cut. We’re also approaching the 5-year Fed policy review, adding another layer of anticipation Central Banks - Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets - Combination of record government debt and rising borrowing costs puts central banks under pressure , and US Debt / Stablecoins - Scott Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries - Treasury secretary’s discussions with crypto groups have helped inform issuance decisions-FT Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms Europe Races to Leverage Trump’s Support for Ukraine Troop Plan  . A package of security guarantees for Ukraine will take shape as soon as this week, with European leaders looking to leverage President Donald Trump's backing for a plan involving European troops. European officials are discussing a plan to send British and French troops to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, with about 10 countries ready to send forces to the war-battered nation Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets Lutnick says Intel has to give (also known as 'taking' or theft' ) government equity in return for CHIPS Act funds On September 9th, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the revision could cut reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs Before the war in Ukraine, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia. Now it is 42%. The system is allowing India to profiteer by buying cheap Russian oil, reselling it, and pocketing $16B in excess profits. This opportunistic arbitrage is unacceptable Tariff status quo with China ‘working pretty well’: US Treasury Secretary Bessent | The Straits Times BTC drops to $113k as Powell's Jackson Hole speech approaches; Check forecast Why ChatGPT 5 Has AI Fans Divided: The Pros and Cons - Geeky Gadgets Trump plans Zelenskyy-Putin meeting after European leaders visit White House Despite a flurry of meetings on Russia's war in Ukraine, major obstacles to peace remain Netanyahu brands Australia's Albanese 'weak' over Palestinian state recognition Lutnick: Intel must give government equity in return for CHIPS funds Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms | Reuters Trump tariff revenue expected to offset tax bill impact Zuckerberg Again Overhauls Meta’s A.I. Efforts - The New York Times UK inflation in July 2025: StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Japan’s 20-year bond yield just surged to 2.61%. Why? A brutal government auction just shook the market. Here’s what happened, why it spooked investors, and why it could ripple far beyond Japan. ( a thread) https://t.co/jTzZNIKgNL " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Massive jobs data revisions are coming: On September 9th, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the revision could cut reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs. This implies https://t.co/P2vBU7vg7H " / X Navigating Fiscal Dominance: A Strategic Guide to Asset Allocation in a Debt-Driven Era Exclusive: Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20, sources say | Reuters Nick Gerli on X: "Historical cost of Buying v Renting. This explains everything about the current housing market. https://t.co/nZoiQpW7Rh " / X SoftBank Group shares plunge over 9% as Asian tech stocks track declines in U.S. peers Melania Trump threatens to sue Hunter Biden for $1bn over Epstein claim

Markets : a truce in Gaza looks increasingly likely, UKR-RU-US-EU-UK summit seems to have gone OK, 3-way negotiaitons being held, equity markets full of '' overbought signals clustering, valuations through the roof, momentum fading'', and now even Altman warnings on AI 'bubbly valuations' too, only 5% of the time in history has the S&P 500 been more expensive (Thread, BoA), and U.S. office vacancies have also now surged past 20%, an all time record OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who sparked the Ai frenzy, worries about AI bubble, comparing market conditions to those of the dotcom boom in the late 1990s China’s EV industry is spending more on factories abroad than at home for the first time The Trump administration is in discussions to take a stake of about 10% in Intel Corp. by converting some or all of the company's grants from the US Chips and Science Act into equity >>> threaten to sack the CEO, drive the share price down, buy some...and 1week later discuss major stake in the company..or Softbank by the looks now Geneva offers free public transport due to ozone spike (and car ban in center) 'The best risk control is not to have any positions that can kill you.” Druckenmiller Wall Street is giving the Saudi oil giant a thumbs down: Aramco shares plunged to a 5½-year low, valuations, valuations.. U.S. office vacancies have now surged past 20%, an all time record. To see how extreme this is, look back at past crises: in the early 1990s commercial real estate bust, vacancies peaked around 16%; after the dot com crash in the early 2000s, they again reached roughly 16%; even during the 2008 financial crisis, when credit markets froze and layoffs were massive, vacancies topped out near 15% Trump-Zelenskyy meeting paves way for Ukraine security guarantees, Putin talks OpenAI's Sam Altman says AI market is in a bubble Take your pick Analysts downplay AI bubble worries as Altman looks to spend trillions Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️ Only 5% of the time in history has the S&P 500 been more expensive. The S&P 500 forward P/E is now 22.5x, the second-highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. At the Dot-Com peak, it was around 25.0x. The 30-year average is 15.5x. Brace for lower than average returns. https://t.co/puSaJGGpTO " / X US office vacancy rates break 20% for first time ever | Facilities Dive China's electric car industry invests more overseas than at home Iron ore sinks BHP FY profit to 5-year low but dividend boosts shares | Reuters Intel gets $2 billion lifeline in the form of SoftBank equity investment | Reuters Saudi Aramco Gets Wall Street’s Thumbs Down — Again - Bloomberg Fürstenbank LGT überholt Family-Bank Vontobel – Inside Paradeplatz Geneva offers free public transport due to ozone spike - SWI swissinfo.ch Why smaller investors should pay attention to corporate bonds – The Armchair Trader Chan: HK drawing up plans to support gold trading

Crucial meeting at the white House today Markets : The biggest event risk now lies in today’s  U.S.–Ukrainian summit in Washington , but mor eimportantly  Jackson Hole conference  taking place Thursday through Saturday (last chance really for Powell to signal something for Fed decision in Sep and beyond - recall a cut is almost priced in.. and 4-5more into 2026..)... Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again/Thread >>> plenty of 'market topping out stories, extremes valuations, Hartnett now too, should not be any surprise if a decent correction comes along into September... risk is Powell cuts down expectations thereafter....Jackson Hole super important, see below The record-breaking rally in US stocks has left them prime for profit taking in the event of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, Winners could include gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, EMs ./Thread Zelensky Heads Back to Washington Under Pressure From Putin - European leaders to join Ukrainian president in visit to Oval Office seeking a path to end war with Russia - WSJ - Trump’s Peace-Deal Demands Leave Zelenskiy With Only Bad Options  - Volodymyr Zelenskiy is in an impossible bind, having to risk Donald Trump's wrath or accept a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine by ceding territory for vague security guarantees. The US president has appeared to align with Putin by dropping demands for an immediate ceasefire and urging Zelenskiy to act fast on a peace plan, which includes a "lands' swap" that Zelenskiy has refused to accept Markets : Sep cut is far from a done deal despite 90% probability currently priced in by Mr Market all down to the BLS decided to show on 5th Sep NFPayrolls ! “We call a tariff a protective measure. It does protect; it protects the consumer very well against one thing. It protects the consumer against low prices.” – Milton Friedman There are now 511,000 new homes for sale in the US, the highest inventory since October 2007, Contract signings to buy a house hits the lowest level in 30 years Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly repeats that while an outsize rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting likely isn’t needed, she still thinks two cuts this year will be appropriate.  Not even the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble saw this: The S&P 500 Price-to-Book Value ratio hit a RECORD 5.3x. The ratio has now officially surpassed the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak German 30y bond yields climbed to 3.35%, the highest level since 2011 . Investors are demanding higher term premia as the surge in bond supply weighs on the market Bill Clinton proves Marco Rubio is lying, right here, clear as day: WE forced Ukraine to give up their nukes, cruise missiles, and strategic bombers: WE promised to protect Ukraine from Russia; WE made Ukraine vulnerable. So yeah, THIS IS OUR WAR Texas grants grid operators authority to CUT Data Center Power during crises Tucson rejects Amazon-linked data center amid water, energy concerns (even with their own within the company AND the council, META not getting their own ways...) Zelensky Returns to White House With Squad of EU Leaders Fed Chair Jerome Powell may seriously disappoint Wall Street at Jackson Hole Steve Rosenberg on X: "“Trump has adopted Russia’s position,” writes one Russian paper today. “He will present his peace ultimatum to Zelensky. And there’s no doubt it’s an ultimatum.” My review of today’s Russian papers. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/FzMo7y0ToD " / X Rt. Hon Ben Wallace on X: "Things to remember and to watch for in Washington today. 1. It is assessed by many Military leaders in Nato , UK & US that for Putin to take by force the 4 Oblasts will take a further 2 million Russian Casualties & 4.4 years. Without Trump , Putin doesn’t hold all the cards 1/9" / X Beware ! Billions lost on Wall Street penny stocks as ‘pump-and-dump’ scams multiply BofA's Hartnett sees profit-taking in stocks after Jackson Hole - InvestmentNews The True Meaning of Trump’s Tariffs by Carla Norrlöf - Project Syndicate AI in apartment market is taking over work orders, lease renewals and more Fed's Daly: Fed will likely need to lower rates in coming months as job market has slowed Trump moving closer to decision on making weed less criminal in eyes of federal government: sources Meta Plans Fourth Restructuring of AI Efforts in Six Months — The Information The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again: The number of container ships departing from China to the US over the last 15 days has dropped to its lowest level since May. This is also one of the lowest readings in 2 years. Shipping volumes have declined by https://t.co/yHg2hDG7o3 " / X Texas Grants Grid Operators Authority to Cut Data Center Power During Crises. What It Signals for the AI Buildout - Smartland Energy Tucson rejects Amazon-linked data center amid water, energy concerns