JPN 20y yields 2.63% / Altman, now META warns on AI, ChatGPT5 / BTC, QQQ off highs ahead of Jackson Hole..

Stéphan
Aug 20
3 min read

Meta to downsize its AI division, some executives expected to leave as bubble fears mount — NYT...this after yesterday's call from Altman (AI bubble etc..) #macro
Markets : U.S Govt wants Intel equity, Jackson Hole creating a little bit of angst in markets, opt expiries (less gamma momentum higher-small reset) >>> as discussed recently, we used this rally to reduce exposure for clients, will await nbetter levels to re-enter, frothy markets etc.. and tactically on spec side, sold some shorts/hedged #QQQ, Altman and Meta warnings, ChatGPT5 seen as a bit of a disapointment, momentum has turned (PLTR classic example..), and speculative longs stretched..as often these days, #BTC also doing its usual advanced warning ahead of Powell, trading as risk asset
Trump accused Powell of “hurting” the housing industry “very badly” and reiterated his call for a significant rate cut. We’re also approaching the 5-year Fed policy review, adding another layer of anticipation
Central Banks - Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets - Combination of record government debt and rising borrowing costs puts central banks under pressure , and US Debt / Stablecoins - Scott Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries - Treasury secretary’s discussions with crypto groups have helped inform issuance decisions-FT
Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms
Europe Races to Leverage Trump’s Support for Ukraine Troop Plan . A package of security guarantees for Ukraine will take shape as soon as this week, with European leaders looking to leverage President Donald Trump's backing for a plan involving European troops. European officials are discussing a plan to send British and French troops to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, with about 10 countries ready to send forces to the war-battered nation
Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets
Lutnick says Intel has to give (also known as 'taking' or theft' ) government equity in return for CHIPS Act funds
On September 9th, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates the revision could cut reported payrolls by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs
Before the war in Ukraine, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia. Now it is 42%. The system is allowing India to profiteer by buying cheap Russian oil, reselling it, and pocketing $16B in excess profits. This opportunistic arbitrage is unacceptable